By Guest Blogger John Manuel:

How does Bruce Pearl still have a job?  Or maybe it’s just a matter of time until the NCAA cracks down on Pearl and Tennessee.  Pearl clearly cheated in recruiting, got caught lying and worst of all, has a terrible past.  Pearl was considered a top coach who did a great job making Tennessee a contender, now he is a joke.  I know there are coaches who cheat and nobody is probably 100% clean, but a coach to attempt to turn in a rival school for cheating twenty years ago as an assistant to get caught now is bad.  If you’re not familiar with that, check the Bruce Pearl Wikipedia page under Pearl/ Thomas incident.  I thought Pearl couldn’t be more of an idiot than the time he painted himself orange for a Tennessee women’s game.  And I thought John Calipari was the biggest ahole in the SEC.

I have to admit I have not been 100% in on college hoops so far.  Got multiple texts from the Matzie talking up the Big East this season–although the Matzie went to a Big Ten school?  Since his text barrage, Pitt lost to Notre Dame and Syracuse dropped three in a row including at home to Seton Hall.  Right now the Big East is the best conference, but it helps when you do have 959659 teams in it.   It’s got so many, solid teams like Marquette get forgotten.  How can one conference be so loaded in basketball, yet so pathetic in football in the same year?  The real question is what happens in March with the Big East.  Can any of the 589985 teams win a title?

I watched a rerun last week of the ESPN 30 for 30 when the Red Sox came back from 3-0 to the Yankees.  I hate both the Yankees and the Red Sox very, very, very much.  But this one might be my favorite because they had Lenny Clarke and Bill Simmons commenting on it.  If you ever want a reason to hate Alex Rodriguez, just watch this again.  With failed steroid test and the orange faced interview, you forgot about the play where he intentionally knocked the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove at first base.  From Simmons and Clarkes commentary to Orlando Cabrera’s wiping his eyes to the Yankees fans this is great.  Plus it showed the class of some Yankees fans throwing stuff onto the field.  Sorry for all the hate, but A-Rod and Bruce Pearl should hang together, they would probably get along great like Chunk and Sloth.

I applaud Boomer Esiason this week for standing up for Jay Cutler and attacking Deion Sanders.  Deion questioned Jay Cutler’s heart.  I agree with Boomer in that Deion wouldn’t make contact or hit anyone.  I am sick of Deion Sanders and probably will stay away from the NFL Network shows because of him.  I was almost all in on the Skins drafting Eric Berry last year just because he ripped Deion.   Although I have never had any issues with Maurice Jones Drew, what was with his questioning of Cutler?  He said he played with an injured knee all season?  He missed the last two games when the Jags were battling for a division title.  I heard he then said he was joking, hope so.  Its true, Cutler should have acted better on the sidelines, but that flat out sucks to be knocked out of a NFC championship game.

I hope the Packers take down the Steelers next week.  Should be a good game.  Will be ready game day to make some solid in game wagers like will the next commercial be a Matt Damon, Angelina Jolie or Steve Carrell movie?  Will the Black Eyed Peas screw up a miss a line?  Or the over/under on when Troy Aikman forgets where he is.  Calling first touchdown to John Kuhn.

In Part I I discussed potential trades the Nationals should make the rest of this offseason to reshape their team. Part II I will discuss what free agent signings the Nationals should look at the rest of the way.

Adam LaRoche: The Nationals have been rumored to be after LaRoche for a little while now, and it makes perfect sense. He’s not going to break the bank, but he is a great fit for the Nats. He will hit about 25+ home runs a year with an OPS around .825, and he plays pretty good defense as well. For some reason he gets very little credit, and despite having multiple teams after him, I think he will be a bargain on the free agent market. You will probably have to offer at least a 2-year with an option deal, or potentially 3 guaranteed years, but LaRoche is worth it. LaRoche would be a very good lefty bat to break up Zimmerman, Werth, and Morse in the lineup.

Derek Lee: Lee has a similar profile to LaRoche, moderate power, low-mid .800′s OPS, good defense and left-handed. There are two major differences though. One, Lee has a more extensive injury history, so some risk is there. Two, Lee is a couple of years older, so the potential for a steep decline is real. Signing Lee for one year or one year with an option isn’t a bad idea, and you could even trade him at the deadline. The only problem is you’d have to also acquire a young 1B who could be ready by mid-year. A guy like Lars Anderson from the Red Sox could be an option, but it would mean using one of your trade chips from Part I.

Brandon Webb: Now since the Nationals did’t acquire Cliff Lee, signing Brandon Webb to an incentive laden contract would be a solid fall back plan. Webb at one time was an ace who would have commanded $20 million a year like Lee, but injuries these last two years has made him a major risk. Now he probably won’t be ready for opening day, but if you believe he can regain at least 75% of his effectiveness it would be a good signing.

Kevin Millwood: Now Millwood got rocked last year in the AL East, but I think he could have a bounce back year in the National League. Yes, a 4-16 record isn’t too promising, but some of his other numbers point to more success. Both his FIP and xFIP were both under 5 (compared to his ERA that was 5.10). That shows that Millwood was hurt by both poor fielding and an unluckiness with homeruns. When you also factor in playing in the American League East, I think he could be a solid 4.25 or less ERA in the National League. With the uncertainty of a guy like Webb, Millwood would be a good signing to hedge your bets with. Only a couple million guaranteed with maybe $2 million more in incentives would be well worth it for your 5th starter. While the Nationals have some young, interesting options, last year proved they need more consistency.

Jon Rauch: In Part One I advocated trading some of their bullpen depth to try to acquire some young major league ready prospects (or at least close to ML ready). Signing Rauch would be the counter-balance to ensure that the bullpen doesn’t become too weak. Since the Nats didn’t land Lee they will have plenty of money to spend, so no need to save money on the bullpen. As with any moderately known reliever, you can always trade them at the deadline for a solid prospect or two if you are out of the race. Rauch has some ability to help close if need be, but otherwise he is a very valuable 7th-8th inning guy. He’s got great command and was a fan favorite his last stint in Washington, and seems like a no-brainer for the Nationals.

Brian Fuentes: Fuentes like Rauch would be another back of the bullpen option, but really shouldn’t be a team’s closer. He struggled some during his time with the Angels, but really improved after the Twins acquired him midseason. He isn’t as dominate as he once was, but he is a lefty and should provide similar value to what Sean Burnett would have given the Nats. There will be a solid market for his services, but I think the Nationals can land him.

Bobby Jenks: Why not! Jenks was the one time closer for the White Sox, but they look to be moving in a different direction and being a non-tender he doesn’t cost the Nationals a draft pick. While his strike out rate has fluctuated in the past and has some cause for concern, he is coming off a good year (despite what most White Sox fans think) and could help ease Drew Storen into the closer role. If Jenks comes back strong and puts up big numbers (which could happen in the NL in a more neutral park), he could have BIG time trade value (i.e. twice what the Nats dealt Capps for). Now Jenks will cost a pretty penny in terms of money, but should be well worth it to the Nationals. Nats fans will appreciate his ability to avoid the long ball (which is pretty impressive considering he was in the AL in one of the best HR hitting ballparks).

Conclusion: LaRoche and Lee are a ‘one or the other’ situation, but the rest of these guys could all be Nationals this year. Webb and Millwood won’t make up for missing out on Lee, but the upside of Webb combined with the solid innings by Millwood do improve the Nationals in 2011. They aren’t a long term solution, but a decent (and cheap) stopgap option. There presence could help lead to a Livan Hernandez or Jason Marquis trade if either have value at the deadline. I know most Nats fans will have the most issue with trading Clippard and Burnett and replacing them with Rauch, Fuentes, and Jenks. Yes there are some lesser options the Nats could explore, but if they aren’t spending big bucks on Cliff Lee, why not invest in the bullpen. First of all, none of these guys will cost a draft pick, and two, 1 or 2 of them could be traded at the deadline for some good prospects. Yes, other teams could pursue these relievers instead of trading for Clippard or Burnett, but low to mid market teams (even some of the big boys) might rather trade their prospect depth than pay the full price on these relievers. The Nationals, who have plenty of payroll flexibility can afford the $12-15 million it will cost to add these guys. When you factor in the prospects/young players the Nationals could acquire for Clippard and Burnett, it is well worth investing that much money for bullpen help. These trades and signings won’t totally put the Nationals in the playoff hunt, but it does move them closer. And if a few of their guys develop correctly, they will be there in a couple of years.

By Guest Blogger John Manuel:

Since the Red Sox felt that Cliff Lee is going to end up with the Yankees, they went out and got Adrian Gonzalez and now Carl Crawford.  Now its the Yankees turn.  Guess they will up their offer significantly to lock up Lee, but where will it stop?  This has replacing an injured Aaron Boone with an A-Rod trade written all over it.  Yankees probably won’t stop at Lee now with Crawford on the Bo Sox.  So who will it be?  Can they reshuffle to get Prince Fielder somewhere?  Would he DH for the Yankees?  Pujols has one year left, can the Yankees trade for him?  Then what?  Will the Red Sox then go get the kid from “Rookie of the Year” who threw smoke and was unhitable?  Then the Yankees have to one up them next.   Many are killing the Nationals for the contact they gave Jayson Werth, but they wanted him and had no choice.  Otherwise he would have been a Red Sox or Yankee for sure.  Can you imagine if Joe Mauer didn’t resign in Minnesota.  What would he get from the Yankees or Red Sox?  As an Orioles fan, all I can say is that I hope I get hit with a Mark Reynolds bomb outta Camden Yards while I am walking from bar to bar in Federal Hill next season.

Many are gearing up this weekend for fantasy football playoff games.  Both my teams made the playoffs, one was quality and one with some luck.  But its a new season once the playoffs come.  Random teams can win with schmos like James Starks or Tashard Choice.  And what the f on Matt Cassel’s appendix bursting.  My money team has Dwayne Bowe and now its a tough call to even go with him this weekend.  My favorite part of fantasy is still the sh*t talk.  Crushing someone is almost as good as winning your league.  You have to jump at your opportunities like having someone else in the league ask you for lineup suggestions.  Automatic kill them…you just don’t do that.  Its fantasy football, not the Middle East Peace Process, make the decision on your own.  And you need help, read some of the 949955 different sit or start articles or at least ask someone not in your league.  Just another call out to my favorite fantasy warrior “Matzie.”   Maybe by 2014 “Matzie” will be famous for his legendary fantasy moves.

The college basketball season is young, but regretfully I have to say that Duke looks tough to take down.  I hate Duke.  I hate Coach K, respect but hate.  I hate their fans.  Kyle Singler should have been a man and declared for the draft after winning the title.  I am pretty sure he probably got his degree by now. Kyrie Irving although currently hurt looks a like a solid one and done.  The horrible rule that a player must play one year in college is a joke.  Why shouldn’t they be able to go pro out of high school?  Many are ready and going for a year is worthless.  I heard Bob Knight breakdown what it took to be eligible for the 2nd semester and you would be shocked.  Some of these guys are probably going to class and working, but why would you if you know your leaving?  I went to college.  I had better things to do than go to class.   Now back to Duke.  I look forward to the February 2nd game at Comcast.  Hopefully they come in undefeated.  Maryland is no where close to as talented as Duke right now, but with the Terps style and the Comcast energy I know we can knock them off.   My final thought on college basketball goes to ESPN.  Can you please start replacing Dick Vitale on big games with Bob Knight?  Or at least Jay Bilas?  But preferably Knight.  His game insight destroys Vitale telling us how many time Coach K is a hall of famer, or Kyle Singler is the best forward in the country.

I tried to get through this without any comment on Albert Haynesworth, but guess I can’t make it.  He sucks in all aspects.  I have no problem with anyone who blames Shanahan, but Haynesworth is the most selfish athlete I can remember.  On one side I hope they get some of the guaranteed money back, but on the other I hope they don’t.  Just to have the memory of this disaster of an acquisition.  #92 jerseys to soon be in the redskins.com store $5 bargain bin next to #55 Jason Taylors, #85 Brandon Lloyds, #40 Adam Archuletas and #30 Trung Canidates jerseys.

There is little doubt that there are ‘haves and have nots’ in baseball as there are in any sport, but every team has at least one player, person or thing to be thankful for this holiday season. Here is a fun list of what each team in the AL East has to be the most thankful for:

New York Yankees: New York obviously has a lot going for them going forward. With a massive payroll, an All-Star lineup, and a very good farm system, the future is bright for the Yankees. The thing the Yankees are most thankful for though is the willingness of Cliff Lee to maybe come to the Yankees.

As good as the Yankees are, they have some serious holes in their rotation that will prevent them from competing in the tough AL East. Although the Yankees seemingly have unlimited resources, if Cliff Lee doesn’t come to New York, the Yankees don’t have a fall back plan. The starting pitching on the free agent market is extremely thin past Lee. No one else on the market is better than a number 3 starter, and a couple of the better options Carl Pavano and Javier Vazquez, aren’t likely to be welcomed back to New York with open arms. The trade market isn’t any more promising for the Yankees as they don’t seem to be a fit for many of the top arms out there. Zack Greinke has a no trade clause for the Yankees and seems to have little interest in waiving it, and the next couple of quality starters potentially on the trade market are from the Rays (possibly the Red-Sox if Dice K is available) and I don’t see them helping fill the Yankees ‘needs’.

The Yankees need Cliff Lee maybe more than possibly any other free agent in their history (unless another top pitcher comes on the market). He might not come cheap, but the fact that he is listening and is a favorite to sign in NY is promising.

Boston Red Sox: Boston is in a similar position with the Yankees, with money to spend, a great team, and a top notch farm system, but the thing they have to be most thankful for is good health.

Last year the Red Sox missed Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Mike Cameron, Mike Lowell, and Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett all missed significant time with injury. Despite so many starters missing time, the Red Sox still were competitive all season and finished with an 89-73 record (they would have only been 1 game out in the West). While the Red Sox will be looking to make some changes this offseason, the most important thing to them is getting healthy. Youkilis, Pedroia, Beckett and Ellsbury all are important cogs for Boston as they look to get back to the post season. Luckily, while all those injuries were devastating at the time none should have a long term impact on the Red Sox. Continued good health will be the key for the Red Sox this season, but right now things are looking up.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have a lot of young talented players, but there is little doubt what (who) they are most thankful for, Buck Showalter. Baltimore finished 66-96 last season split between three managers, but more than half of those wins (34) came when Showalter was at the helm.

In 57 games under Showalter the Orioles went 34-23, meaning the Orioles would have 97 games based on their winning percentage under him. That would have been good enough to win the AL East (as well as being the best record in baseball). Showalter also went 14-13 against the AL East (they went 10-35 before he started). Now I don’t think they were legitimately a 97 win team, but they also weren’t a legitimate 66 win team either.

Showalter completely revitalized that team and gives the Orioles hope going forward. They have a number of young talented pieces and Buck seems to be making the most out them. The addition of Showalter could be exactly what the Orioles need, as they look to become an competitive franchise once again.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays had the home run king last year as well as one of the best power teams in the league, but they are most thankful for their G.M. Alex Anthopoulos.

The Blue Jays had lost Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen and Alex Rios from the summer of 2009 to the beginning of last season, yet somehow the Blue Jays still managed to win 85 games. What’s even more impressive than their win total is the collection of young talent that Anthopoulos has picked up. The young Blue Jays G.M. was in the unenviable position of having to trade their top player, Halladay, when his value was the lowest. Despite not having the leverage he would have wanted, Anthopoulos made a very good trade for the Blue Jays, and remained active all offseason to rebuild the Blue Jays farm. Combined with his shrewd trades and signings, as well as a top notch draft the Blue Jays ‘rebuilding’ process actually made Toronto a better team than they were before.

Tamp Bay Rays: The Rays won the division and if not for Cliff Lee and those pesky Rangers, very well could have been in the World Series. Things though aren’t all rosy in Tampa as they need to slash their payroll, which will mean the loss of a number of star players including All-Star Carl Crawford. While it looks bleak, I wouldn’t be too worried about Tampa as they have plenty of talent on the way from their bountiful farm system, which needs to be number 1 on their thankful list.

They Rays have already added a number of young players these last couple years, but should add a couple more uber-talents this season with RHP Jeremy Hellickson and OF Desmond Jennings leading the way. Hellickson is the best pitcher in the minors and saw a little bit of time with the Rays last season. He profiles as a potential number 1 and should at least be a 2 or a 3 starter on a playoff caliber team. Jennings is one of the top young outfielders in the minors and he is capable of playing any position. He will likely start by replacing Crawford, but could eventually move over to CF and become the Rays lead-off hitter. In addition to the two stars, I’d expect to at least a couple more arms throughout the season, with LHP Jake McGee likely to start the year in their bullpen. The Rays system is loaded that they can not only absorb their impending losses, but make a couple big trades as well.

As I said, at the top every team has something to be thankful for this holiday weekend, but these are what I think the 5 AL East teams have to be most thankful for. What do you think?

All of us at Fanspeak.com were saddened today to hear of the passing of one of Baseball’s greatest managers, Sparky Anderson. Our deepest sympathies go out to Anderson’s family and the Tigers and Reds organizations that Anderson managed to greatness. Our Nostalgiaspeak writer Willypops offers his memories of just how great Anderson’s Reds were:

Remembering Sparky Anderson- By Willypops:

I was saddened today to hear of the death of Sparky Anderson, long-time major league manager, first with the Cincinnati Reds and then the Detroit Tigers. Sparky managed for 26 years and he amassed a number of notable accomplishments during that time, including becoming the first manager to win the World Series in both leagues.  But it was his 9-year stint with the Reds that is most memorable to me.

Growing up in Western Pennsylvania as an avid Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I actually didn’t have any fondness for Sparky and his Reds.  When Sparky took over the team in 1970, he led the Reds to a first place finish in the National League West Division.  Back in those days, each league was divided into two divisions, with the winner of each squaring off in a five-game series to determine who would move on the World Series.  The Reds played the Pirates in that 1970 National League Championship Series (NLCS) and swept them.

With such players as Pete Rose, Johnny Bench and Joe Morgan, Sparky’s Reds were to go on to be known as ”The Big Red Machine”, winning four National League pennants and back-to-back World Series titles in 1975 and 1976.  They also went on to become the Pirates nemesis in the early to mid-70’s.  Oh how I came to hate that team.  In addition to the 1970 triumph, the Reds beat the Pirates in the 1972 NLCS (3-2) and again swept them in the 1975 NLCS.  The Pirates had some very good teams back in that time frame.  From 1970 through 1975 the Bucs appeared in five of the six NLCS match-ups.  In 1971 they beat the Giants and then went on to beat the Orioles in the World Series.  And although they lost to the Dodgers in the 1974 NLCS, those three series losses to the Reds were the ones that were particularly hard to swallow.  That 1972 loss was the most devastating of all.  The series came down to a fifth game at Cincinnati’s Riverfront Stadium.  The Pirates took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the 9^th.  But Bench led off with a homer to tie the game up and after giving up two straight singles, Pirates closer Dave Giusti was relieved by Bob Moose.  Moose got the next two batters to fly out but with George Foster on third and facing pinch hitter Hal McRae, Moose uncorked a wild pitch and Foster scored to give the Reds the win and a trip to the World Series.  Of all the ways Sparky’s Big Red Machine could beat you, they won that one on a walk-off wild pitch!  But that’s the way Sparky’s teams played – they would find a way to beat you.

From what I’ve read and heard, Sparky was a fun-loving, likeable guy.  But he managed with intensity and enthusiasm and he got his teams to play that way as well.  I may have disliked him and his team because of what they did to the Pirates, but I certainly appreciated what he accomplished throughout his managerial career.  As managers go, you couldn’t get much better than Sparky Anderson.  Baseball lost a legend today.  And true baseball fans everywhere, not just in Cincinnati and Detroit, will feel that loss.

In Part I I explored the major free agent options available for the Nationals if they were to lose Adam Dunn to free agency. In Part II I looked at some lesser options available through minor trades, as well as internal options. In Part III I will look at possible long term solutions that the Nationals could add to their impressive young infield. I will focus on prospects (or young players), who might be available, who would be ready by 2012 at the latest.

Big Names:

Billy Butler: (Royals) There is a lot to like with Butler as he has improved both his offense and defense each year, and is just going to be 25 next season. Last year he posted a .318/.388/.469 with a wOBA of .372 and a WAR of 3.4. While there was a time where he was considered a DH only, Butler has improved to be an adequate 1B (roughly what we saw with Dunn this past year). Butler has yet to show the power he was supposed to have, with a career high of 21 home runs in 2009, but makes up for it with his on base skills. Butler’s walk rate has improved every year and was just over 10% last season. His strikeout rate is extremely modest and was in fact just .2% higher than Albert Pujols. Compared to guys like Dunn or Carlos Pena, Butler’s K rate will be less than half and even closer to 1/3 of their K’s.

Now as to why the Royals might look to move Butler, considering his youth, production and potential, it boils down to two reasons. The first is Kansas City is still probably 2 years (could be less) away from contention, and by that time Butler will almost be out from under their team control (Butler is entering his first of 3 Arbitration seasons with KC). The other reason is the glut of 1B/DH/OF types behind Butler on the Kansas City organizational chart (see below). With Alex Gordon, Kila Ka’aihue, and Clint Robinson, to say nothing of uber-prospects Mike Moustakas (may have to move off 3B) and Eric Hosmer, the Royals are set at 1B/DH for quite some time. The Royals have the best farm system in all of baseball and a number of their prospects will be making their way to Kansas City over the next few years. While Butler might be a nice building block, he is pretty redundant. There is a thought that the team could look to trade either Zack Greinke or Joakim Soria in the next year or so (possibly both). If the Royals move them, then Butler could easily be on the way out to further stock the team for when they are ready to contend. He would cost the Nationals a pretty penny in return, but he’d be a great cornerstone for this team moving forward.

Gaby Sanchez: Sanchez just finished a pretty good rookie campaign for the Marlins where he posted a solid .346 wOBA and a 2.4 WAR. Sanchez is known to be solid defensively, and has the offensive potential to hit 25 home runs a year with a solid average and on base percentage. It wouldn’t be easy for the Marlins to part with him, but it is possible that they would deal him this off season. Top prospect Logan Morrison came up as a left fielder late in the year because of injury but he is a natural first baseman. He is a superior hitter to Sanchez, and really projects as their first baseman of the future. He could be passable in left field, but the Marlins have other options there. Even if Florida opens up 2B, by trading Uggla, to allow LF Chris Coghlan to move to his natural position, I could still see the Marlins moving Sanchez. Sanchez disappeared down the stretch, which kept him from having a much better year. Also, Sanchez is already 27, so by the time his team control is up he will be 32. While he should have some very productive years in the mean time, his 5 years of team control help increase his value to other teams, and get Florida a nice return.

Top Prospects:

Yonder Alonso: Alonso is one of the Cincinnati Reds top prospects but look for him to be firmly on the trade block this offseason. While the Reds have tried him in LF, he is a natural first baseman, but won’t ever get the chance in Cincinnati with Joey Votto there. He is a solid defensive first baseman, with good power and a great approach at the plate. He won’t replace all of Dunn’s power, but will still be a significant offensive force. Alonso is nearly major league ready and would fit in nicely with the Nationals young core. If Washington was willing to move Josh Willingham or one of their top relievers a deal could make sense for both teams. The Reds are looking for more immediate help, hurting the Nats chances somewhat.

Chris Carter: (A’s) Carter is an interesting case as at one point he was considered a DH only, but has transformed into being not only an adequate 1B, but worth a shot in the OF as well. He is a big time power hitter, and projects to be very similar to Dunn. High walk and strikeout rate (though at times he has shown improvement), with massive power and little defensive value (despite his recent work). His cup of coffee this season didn’t meet expectations, but at 24 next season he has plenty of potential. Whether the A’s move him or not is another story. They seem set at first with Daric Barton, and have been recently using more athletic outfielders. I have a hard time believing they would make Carter a full-time DH at this point in his career, meaning the A’s might have an interest in dealing him if the price is right. The Nationals might not be the best fit and Carter won’t win any Gold Gloves, but he has the power and youth to hold that position for the next 6 years.

Allen Craig: Craig is a 26 year old, who can’t find a home in the Cardinals organization. He has no shot at playing 1B or LF with Pujols and Holliday and the team seems committed to David Freese at 3B and John Jay in RF, leaving Craig a 4 corner defender without a home. Craig has murdered both AA and AAA pitching these last 3 years, and deserves a major league shot somewhere. While he has put up excellent numbers he doesn’t have a top prospect status which makes him an affordable option for a team like the Nats. His versatility and hitting ability work in his favor, while his low walk rate is a strike against him. Even if the Nats find a better option, Craig could be an OF bat for Washington.

Lars Anderson: Anderson like many of these options doesn’t seem to fit in to his team’s long term plans. The Red Sox are likely going to look to upgrade their 1B/DH position from the outside this year, and still would have Anthony Rizzo in the pipe for the future. This makes Anderson very expendable, though he could be dealt as part of a deal for a Prince Fielder, or Adrian Gonzalez. If Anderson isn’t moved for a 1B bat, he could make sense in a move to the Nationals. Boston could be interested in trying to acquire Willingham or one of the Nats relievers, or a deep team like Boston might want to acquire younger prospects. Either way the Nationals could make this deal happen and would be pretty happy if they did.

Some of the luster has worn off Anderson’s prospect status, but he still should be a very good starter going forward. He’s got good power and pretty good plate discipline, as well as projecting as a solid 1B defensively. He struggled mightily in AAA this season, and will probably need at least half a season in AAA this year, but I like his promise going forward. Because of his struggles I wouldn’t ‘break the bank’ for him, but his potential is worth a serious look.

Royals Galore: Under the Butler discussion I mentioned that the Royals have a glut of 1B/DH types. Here are three more that could be interesting to the Nationals. Now all three won’t get dealt, and maybe none will if Butler is moved, but the Royals will likely take offers on any of them.

Alex Gordon: Gordon who was taken 2nd overall in the 2005 draft, two places ahead of Ryan Zimmerman, has not lived up to his top prospect status. But he is still quite young, and has a lot of promise. Gordon has moved off the hot-corner (though could still back-up there) and moved into left field, but he could also be an option at 1B. He has three more arbitration years remaining, and for at least this year should come at a fairly reduced rate. Given his limited time left under team control, the Royals may look to deal him to get some value while they can. Like Craig he offers plenty of versatility and given his minor league numbers quite a bit of hitting potential. Gordon would be a great buy low candidate even if he plays the outfield (which actually has more positional value). He won’t cost as much as some of the top prospects on this list, and a change of scenery should do him quite a bit of good.

Kila Ka’aihue: Ka’aihue has never caught a break with the Royals organization. First he was blocked by Butler, and now he is about to get passed up by Hosmer. His future with the team will be tied to what the Royals do with Butler. If they move Butler, then Ka’aihue will be the first baseman until Hosmer arrives (then likely switch to DH). If they plan on keeping Butler, look for the Royals to try to get value out of Ka’aihue. Ka’aihue isn’t a ‘top prospect’ but, he has hit like one in the minors. He is still pretty young, and plays solid defense that he would be a solid secondary option for the Nationals. He is major league ready now, but might not be up to the task of being an every day starter just yet.

Clint Robinson: Robinson isn’t a major prospect, but he broke out in a big way this season in AA. At 25 he is a bit old for the league, so it’s hard to tell if he can be a future starter, but his prospect star began to rise. He is completely blocked in Kansas City and very well could be moved. He wouldn’t bring back much, but if Kansas City decides to hang on to more proven options, Robinson will be dealt. Robinson probably needs at least one more full year in the minors (potentially a late year call up), but could be a cheap option for the future.

Prospects with some question marks and not definitely available:

Mark Trumbo: Trumbo had a huge year for the Angels AAA affiliate, but could find himself dealt this year as the Kendry Morales returns from injury. Trumbo doesn’t have much of a future in L.A. and could be used to pry a useful piece or two, for the Angels to contend. Trumbo has shown great power but has always been hindered by his low walk rate. His stock is at it’s highest peak right now so, I really do believe the Angels will cash in, but he might not be worth the ‘top prospect’ value. At the very least he should be an everyday starter, but might not be at an All-star level.

Brandon Allen: (D-Backs) Allen is basically a slightly lesser version of Chris Carter, with similar numbers and similar positional value. He is being tried as a corner outfielder, but I wouldn’t bet on that being his career path. Adam LaRoche will likely leave Arizona this offseason, which should open up the door for Allen at 1st. But I wouldn’t pencil him in just yet. The Diamondbacks might be rebuilding, but I could see them adding a veteran 1B, relying on their minor league depth for the future and moving Allen. Arizona doesn’t seem to be locked into Allen which does make me believe that scenario is possible. Only time will tell how motivated they are to move him.

Prospects who may become available: These guys are all top prospects but their availability will hinge on what their team does in the offseason.

Freddie Freeman: I think the chances are slim here of Freeman being on the move, but it is a new era in Atlanta. They might think their time to win is now, while they have that talented pitching. If they go out and sign a Dunn or Huff, Freeman could be dealt for a multiple players. Freeman is one of the best first base prospects in the minors, though he lacks major power. He is very young, and just about major league ready. He will cost a bit, and I really don’t know if the above scenario will play out, but he should be on the Nats radar.

Brandon Belt: (Giants) Brandon Belt came out of nowhere this year, to be one of the minors best hitting prospects. He tore through both High-A and AA, before ‘cooling down’ in 48 AAA at bats where he posted a .419 wOBA and a .958 OPS. He is an athletic 1B, who has even dabbled in the OF, but will stay at 1B where he is a good defender. He might need a bit more seasoning to ensure his meteoric rise isn’t a fluke, but has plenty of potential. While it seems unlikely the Giants would move him, they might do just that if they sign an Adam Dunn type this offseason. San Francisco is in a position to win now, so if they add a big 1B bat, they could move Belt for more pieces this year. It would cost the Nats quite a bit this year, but Belt has the potential to be the Nats long term answer at 1B

Final Analysis: It won’t be easy for the Nats to replace Adam Dunn, but they do have options. Unless they trade for a Billy Butler or Gaby Sanchez, they need to sign a veteran free agent like Huff, Berkman, or LaRoche. I’m not too keen on Pena, as I’m unsure if he can rebound. Any veteran they sign should be with the eye to trading them in July, if a prospect steps up.

Even with Morse in the fold, the Nationals should look to acquire at least 2 of the guys I’ve listed (the one exception is if they acquire Butler, as he is close to a guarantee to filling the position long term). Given their OF issues, a guy like Craig or Gordon would make sense to offer insurance at both spots. If Brandon Belt becomes available he would probably be near the top of my list, but right now I’d look to focus on Alonso and Carter for long term options. If the price gets too high on them, Ka’aihue or Allen would be intriguing fall backs. If the Nationals have to go down to that level, they need to bring in that OF/1B insurance.

Now if the Nationals strikeout on the big free agents then that makes trading for an Alonso/Carter much more important. I really am not keen on the lesser options (Garrett Jones, Loney, Davis), but wouldn’t mind giving Chris Davis a flier if you can get him cheap. Otherwise the Nationals need to be looking to the future, and keep an eye on the prize. I don’t mind trading some of their young prospects (Norris, Burgess, Marrero etc.) or Willingham or Burnett given their contract situations, but don’t overvalue a veteran and not make a deal for a young 1B. If Billy Butler is available, maybe you can expand the deal to include Gordon (a la the Willingham and Olsen deal of a couple of years ago…it will cost more this time around) to fill two needs. The Nationals are at a tipping point, and could quickly be on the road to contention if they make the right decisions this offseason, but they can’t get ahead of themselves and forget about the future.

Rangers Finish off Rays Behind Cliff Lee: For the second straight postseason, Cliff Lee is proof of why you make midseason trades to help your ball club. Lee went just 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA after the Rangers acquired him, but is now 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA this postseason. Lee twice knocked off the Rays at home, and really is the reason why Texas is moving on to round two. In both games Lee out dueled fellow ace David Price, as the Rangers offense was too much for him to handle. While pitching and defense usually win playoff series, the Rangers offense is capable of disproving that theory. Now Texas has a quick turn around and starts their next series Friday at home against the Yankees. Unfortunately Cliff Lee won’t be on the mound for their first game (and will have to start Game 2 on 3 day’s rest). In a classy move the Rangers celebrated their postseason victory with Ginger Ale out of respect to Josh Hamilton, who has battled alcohol and drug addiction in his past.

Braves Waste No Time Replace Cox with Gonzalez: Gonzalez isn’t much of a surprise as Cox’s replacement, since speculation has been around since he was fired this season by the Marlins. Gonzalez has a long history with the Braves and was Cox’s 3rd base coach earlier in the decade. Gonzalez not only got a raw deal in the way he was fired from the Marlins (basically for benching Hanley Ramirez one game for lack of hustle), but for his entire tenure there. The Marlins run on the league’s lowest payroll, and continuously dump players to remain at that level. Even when they didn’t move players, Gonzalez played every year wondering if the team would have a mid-season fire sale. Now Gonzalez will have big shoes to fill and a number of questions to answer, but he should have the resources to succeed in Atlanta.

Kraft Believes New CBA Possible This Year: It was a positive sign yesterday, even if it was a bit unbelievable, to hear that the owners think that they can reach a new deal this year. That is a lot of work to be done in the next 2 and a half months, but the owners sound like they don’t want to risk a lockout. And in all honesty why would they? Both sides have a reason to come to the table, as a lockout would mean a major loss of money for both sides. The NHL may have needed a lockout earlier this decade, but it also hurt them. While it won’t hurt the NFL as much, it will turn fans away. In this economic climate, the last thing the NFL can afford to do is turn fans away. By the same token the players don’t want to lose a year of their earnings while the CBA is being worked out. While I’m still skeptical they can work out an agreement this year, I think they will have it done by the time the Super Bowl rolls around.

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Willypops

Certainly the major sports news topic in recent days has been the no-hitter tossed by the Phillies Roy Halladay against the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of their National League Divisional Series matchup.  I’ve listened to quite a bit of debate on where Halladay’s feat ranks against previous individual postseason  performances.  Since I’m a “mature” sports fan, I always like to look at how things used to be.  Indeed, I’ve posted a few  blogs here on fanspeak under the heading “Nostalgiaspeak” (found under the “More” tab).  So I think it’s only fitting that I take a look at some other past outstanding performances in MLB postseason play.

I took a cursory look at the information on Baseball Reference.com, limiting my review from 1940 to the present.  Not that I go back that far – I was born in 1953.  And not that there is any other particular significance to 1940.  I just thought, what the heck, 70 years is a pretty good sampling.  I also limited my review to one-game pitching performances.  I realize there have been individual at-bats (World Series-ending homers by Bill Mazeroski in the 1960 and Joe Carter in 1993 and Bobby Thomson’s 1951 playoff game  ”shot heard round the world”) or great fielding plays (catches by Willie Mays and Ron Swoboda) that were truly spectacular.  Numerous players have put up amazing numbers, either hitting or pitching, throughout a particular postseason or series.  But I think that it’s the single game, dominating pitching performance of the nature of Halladay’s, that stands out above the rest.

Taking a look at Halladay’s no-hitter, it almost seemed effortless.  The only thing that kept him from throwing a perfect game was an 5th inning walk on a 3-2 count.  He almost always pitched ahead in the count and rarely even went to three balls in any count.  It didn’t seem like any extraordinary fielding plays were needed to preserve the no-hitter as is often the case.  In short, it was a brilliant performance.  What is truly amazing is the fact that this gem was thrown in his first-ever appearance in the postseason!

In the debate over whether Halladay’s no-hitter was the most spectacular individual postseason performance, the first comparison drawn is to Don Larsen’s perfect game for the Yankees against the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series.  Before Halladay’s game, it was the only no-hitter ever thrown in postseason play.  With the Series knotted at two games apiece, there was some question if Larsen would even be given the start in Game 5.  He had only lasted 1.2 innings in his previous Game 2 start.  But Manager Casey Stengel decided to go with Larsen and the rest, as they say, “is history”.

But no-hitters aside, there have been plenty of masterpieces thrown in the postseason.  There’s one game in particular that some people are suggesting was even more impressive than Larsen’s or Halladay’s.  That is Jack Morris’ performance for the Twins against the Braves in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series.  It was a 10-inning, complete game, 1-0 shutout.  While he did give up 7 hits, it is argued that to go out in the 7th and deciding game and pitch 10 innings of shutout ball, giving his team the opportunity to clinch the series in walk-off fashion in the bottom of the 10th, puts his performance right up there for consideration as the best postseason performance ever.

But going back a bit further in history, a compelling argument could be made for another 10 inning, complete game, 1-0 shutout.  It also occurred in the 1956 World Series, in Game 6, one day after Larsen’s perfect game.  Unheralded Clem Labine got the start for the Dodgers with his team now trailing the Yankees in the Series, three games to two.  Similar to Morris’ game, Labine scattered 7 hits and kept the Dodgers in the game.  What was really impressive was the fact that he had to out-duel Bob Turley of the Yankees, who himself pitched 9.2 innings of shutout ball until Jackie Robinson hit a single to drive in Junior Gilliam to give the Dodgers the win.  The win kept the Dodgers’ hopes alive, although the Yankees did prevail in Game 7.

When considering other memorable World Series games, near the top of the list has to be the one-hitter turned in by Jim Lonborg of the Red Sox against the Cardinals in Game 2 of the 1967 Series, a 5-0 shutout win for Lonborg .  He took a no-hitter into the 8th inning, giving up a double with two outs in that inning.  His only other blemish in that game was a 7th inning walk.  Of course the Cardinals went on to win the Series four games to three, keeping the “Curse of the Bambino” alive.

Speaking of World Series 1-hitters, there was the performance turned in by Claude Passeau (who?) of the Chicago Cubs in Game 3 of the 1945 Series.  He pitched a 3-0 shutout against the Tigers, giving up the only hit in the 2nd inning.  He also walked a batter in the 6th inning who was immediately erased on a double play so Passeau only faced 28 batters that day, one over the minimum.  The Tigers went on to win that Series and what is additionally noteworthy is that it is the last time that the Cubs appeared in the World Series.

Another pitcher who tossed a 1-hitter in a World Series game was Bill Bevens of the Yankees against the Brooklyn Dodgers.  He threw it in Game 4 of the 1947 Series.  But this wasn’t your ordinary 1-hitter type of game.  For starters, Bevens lost the game on the only hit he gave up, a two-out, two-run, walk-off double by Cookie Lavagetto.  Why was it a TWO-RUN walk-off double you say?  It turns out that Bevens gave up 10 walks that day!  The Dodgers were able to manufacture a run in 5th inning on two of those walks, a sacrifice bunt and a fielder’s choice.  Nonetheless, the Yankees took a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th.  It was the first time (and the only time other than Larsen’s game) that a pitcher took a no-hitter into the 9th inning in a World Series game.  Two walks by Bevens set the stage for Lavagetto’s game winning hit.   The Yankees did however go on to win that Series in 7 games.

Some other impressive World Series pitching performances, albeit not quite up to the challenge of those games discussed above, include 2-hit shutouts thrown by Warren Spahn of the Braves against the Yankees in Game 4 of the 1958 Series and Whitey Ford of the Yankees against the Reds in Game 1 of the 1961 Series.  Additionally there was the Game 1, 4-0 shutout of the Tigers turned in by Bob Gibson of the Cardinals in the 1968 series.  While he did give up 5 hits, he struck out 17 batters that day.  A truly dominant performance.

In addition to Halladay’s no-hitter, there have been some impressive non-World Series performances as well.  Chief among those would be the Braves’ Kevin Millwood 1-hitter against the Astros in Game 2 of the 1999 NLDS, and Bobby Jones’ 1-hitter for the Mets against the Giants in Game 4 of the 2000 NLDS, which clinched that Series for the Mets.  And who can forget the 1-hitter tossed by Roger Clemens of the Yankees against the Mariners in Game 4 of the 2000 ALCS in which he struck out 15 batters.  Some have argued that, taking all factors into consideration, that stands as the most dominating postseason pitching performance.  Not being a Clemens fan, I of course would discount that one since we really don’t know how much “help” he had that day??

So, which one deserves to be considered the most spectacular postseason performance?  In my mind, I think that the two no-hitters and the Morris and Labine 10-inning complete game shutouts are the top candidates.  Two games are in the more current time frame and two were from a different era.  Three of the games were World Series games and Halladay’s was the first game of the postseason.  It all depends on how you weigh the different factors applicable to each game.  To me, a World Series game carries greater weight than a non-Series game.  Vitally important too, is what that particular performance meant to the pitcher’s’ team at that given point in time.  And I think you have to give great weight to how the accomplishment relates to baseball’s established standards of excellence (ie. no-hitter vs. 7-hit shutout).

Which is the best?  While Labine’s 10-inning, 1-0 shutout win kept his team alive in the World Series it does not equal Morris’ similar shutout that gave the Twins the title.  And although in most any other scenario, a no-hitter trumps a 10-inning complete game shutout, I think the fact that Morris performed his feat under the pressure of pitching in the 7th game of the World Series makes his accomplishment just a little more impressive than Halladay’s postseason-opening no-hitter.  I know that Larsen’s accomplishment “only” gave his team a 3-2 lead in the Series, but I have to go with his performance as being the best of the bunch.  After all, what is better than perfection?

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Andrew Chubb

Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

In the final year of legendary skipper Bobby Cox, the Atlanta Braves surprised a lot of people by maintaining their lead in the National League East over the 3-time defending NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies for a majority of the regular season. With a solid starting rotation led by 3-time All-Star, Ace-of-the-staff Tim Hudson and an excellent bullpen, the Braves relied on timely hitting and stellar defense from All-Star catcher Brian McCann, rookie phenom Jason Heyward, as well as first time All-Stars Omar Infante and Martin Prado. However the Braves recent stumbles in August and September allowed for the Phils to gain ground in the East and eventually overtake the lead in the division. The Braves playoff hopes hinged on the final day of the regular season when they secured a Wild-card birth with a win and a San Diego Padres’ loss.

The San Francisco Giants, led by manager Bruce Bochy, played catchup with the San Diego Padres for most of the regular season. However, after the Padres stumbled with a 10-game losing streak in August and September, the Giants overtook the lead in the National League West by winning one out of three games in their final series against the Padres at the conclusion of the regular season. When looking at their starting pitching staff, it’s no surprise as to what the Giants owe their post season berth to. Last years Cy Young Award Winner Tim Lincecum, stalwart right-hander Matt Cain, and left-hander Jonathan Sanchez all had excellent numbers through out the 2010 season. The Giants’ starting pitching staff compiled an absurd 1.78 ERA in the month of September alone. They also enjoyed a sensational year from saves leader and closer, Brian Wilson. While the offense struggled throughout most of the year, they were able to get solid contributions down the stretch from rookie catcher Buster Posey and resurgent veterans Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff.

STARTING PITCHING

This will be an interesting matchup. The Giants starters had the second best ERA in the National League at 3.54 with the Braves being close behind at 3.80. While it could be said that Tim Lincecum had somewhat of a down year (3.43 ERA), he still won 16 games and had the most strikeouts in the National League. Matt Cain had a year much like Cole Hamels, in that his success did not translate to the win column. He went 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA, but still has the repertoire to be a shutdown ace. Jonathan Sanchez had a good second half of the regular season, and is capable of frustrating hitters with breaking balls and can overpower with his fastball when his command is there. The Braves will have to rely on sinker balling veteran Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, and the young right-hander Tommy Hanson. Lowe is the veteran with the most postseason experience, and if he can place his sinker with precision, it will be tough for the Giants hitters to get the ball out of the infield. The revitilized Hudson enjoyed a 17-9 season with an ERA of 2.83 and, like Lowe, will rely on a sinking fastball to get ground ball outs. The postseason wildcard of the staff has to be Hanson. At only 24 year old, he was inconsistent at times during the regular season and prone to mental lapses. If he can overcome some control issues and get hitters deep in the count so he can use his devestating 12-6 curveball, Hanson will be able to put his team in a position to win.

Edge: Giants

BULLPEN

While the Giants have an excellent closer in Brian Wilson, their success in the regular season was in large part due to the starters being able to pitch deep into games. If they are to advance they will need good performances from setup men Jeremy Affeldt (4.14 ERA) and Guillermo Mota (4.33 ERA). The Atlanta Braves have two excellent setup men in Peter Moylan (2.97 ERA) and Johnny Venters (1.95 ERA), and have enjoyed a comeback season by closer Billy Wagner (7-2 1.43 ERA).

Edge: Braves

LINEUP

Both offenses were somewhat mediocre during the 2010 regular season, with the Giants having the edge in power. They will continue to rely on Aubrey Huff’s surprising numbers (.290 BA, 26 HR, 86 RBI) and Buster Posey’s excellent rookie production (.305 BA, 18 HR, 67 RBI) to spark their offense. While third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s offensive production dipped this year, the Giants enjoyed a stellar year from infielder Juan Uribe (24 HR, 86 RBI). Outfielder Andres Torres has great speed and a good bat, which could also contribute to San Francisco’s success if he can get on base and steal some bases. Atlanta will try and counter with the consistent and heady catcher Brian McCann, and the rookie phenom outfielder Jason Heyward. While McCann does not have the power of an elite hitting catcher, he more than makes up with it with a great eye and a fundamental swing. When healthy, Heyward has been Atlanta’s lightning in a bottle. Heyward has great speed on the basepaths and in the outfield, can hit to all fields for power and average, and is a surprisinly mature hitter considering he is only 21 years old. Adding Derrek Lee late in the season to replace injured Troy Glaus was a good move considering his veteran leadership, character, and postseason experience.

Edge: Giants

SERIES OUTLOOK

When you’re looking at Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez in a 5 game series, you have to be confident if you’re the Giants. The losses of Chipper Jones and Martin Prado really hurt because it has become apparent that Brooks Conrad cannot be an everyday player. His defensive lapses have cost the Braves at a position that has been manned since 1993 by an almost certain first ballad Hall of Famer, Chipper Jones. With Atlanta’s road record being near the bottom of the league, the Braves will face an uphill battle to get the Conference Series. However, this series will be close if Atlanta’s starting pitching can match San Francisco’s, as both offenses are somewhat comparable to each other. Ultimately, I believe the Giants starting pitching and momentum going into the postseason will be too much for the Braves to handle and despite the Braves desire to send the Bobby Cox out on top, the Giants will win the Divisional Series in 5 games.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Game 1: Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) vs. Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA

Game 2: Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA) vs. Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA

Game 3: Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA) at Turner Field in Atlanta, GA

Game 4: TBD (If necessary) at Turner Field in Atlanta, GA

Game 5: TBD (If necessary) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA

A Guest Blog by Fanspeak Contributing Writer Andrew Chubb

Cincinnati Reds (91-71) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

The Philadelphia Phillies are the prohibitive favorite to represent the National League for the third consecutive year in the World Series. The Phils’ 2010 season was anything but expected as they endured injuries to almost all their core players from the 2008 and 2009 teams. Every positional player with the exception of Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez served stints on the Disabled List, including former NL MVP’s Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Even after having to rely on bench players like Ross Gload and Wilson Valdez, and having an underwhelming bullpen, the Phils still find themselves with the best record in the MLB heading into the postseason. The Phils also endured one of their worst offensive slumps in recent memory, which led to the firing of hitting coach Milt Thompson. The real story for the Phillies in 2010 has been their triumvirate of starting pitching in NL Cy-Young Favorite Roy Halladay, 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels, and 3-Time All-Star Roy Oswalt (H20). Since Oswalt was acquired on July 30, the front end of the pitching staff has been absolutely phenomenal, helping the Phillies to achieve a 21-7 record in September. Even the bullpen, including the oft-shaky Brad Lidge, has been surprisingly consistent since the All-Star Break with Lidge converting 18 of his past 20 saves. Lidge also seems to have found his trademark slider, and his fastball location seems to have improved from last year.

The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the more surprising teams this year. Having not been to the playoffs since 1995, and returning basically the same roster from the year before, not much was really expected out of the Reds in 2010. But the emergence of NL MVP favorite Joey Votto (.324 BA, 1.024 OPS, 37 HR, 113 RBI) and the stellar offensive and defensive play of lead-off man Brandon Phillips has propelled the Reds to the top of the NL Central Division. The other big story for the Reds in 2010 was the arrival of the Fire-baller Cuban Defector, Aroldis Chapman. The 22 year old phenom has hit as high as 105 MPH on the radar gun, and serves as a dangerous left-handed weapon in the bullpen for the Divisional Series. While starting pitching has been shaky, and an issue all year (Starters ERA of 4.05), they greatly benefited from the re-insertion of starter Edinson Volquez after undergoing ligament replacement surgery. The bullpen will also benefit from being able to utilize young starters in left-hander Travis Wood (who one-hit the Phillies earlier in the year) and right-hander Homer Bailey.

STARTING PITCHING

As I said earlier, the starting pitching ERA for the Reds this season was 4.05, tenth best in the National League. The Phillies, on the other hand, had a starters’ ERA a half a run lower at 3.55, good for third best in the NL. I think the Reds’ decision to pitch all right-handers when they have a left-handed starter who quite frankly befuddled the Phils’ offense the last time they played, is questionable at best. Even though Wood lacks the experience of Arroyo or Cueto, he is an invaluable left hander against a left-handed heavy lineup. If the Reds can prevent the Phils from scoring in bunches by keeping the game close and making the Phillies rely on their bullpen, they could have a shot to win the series. An interesting statistic here is Cole Hamels ERA against the Cincinnati Reds lifetime: 1.07 in seven starts. Only once has he gone fewer than seven innings or given up more than a run in a single outing against the Reds. If the Phillies want to go deep in the postseason, once again, they will have to get a strong performance from Cole Hamels. It looks as though Hamels has returned back to his 2008 form (3.06 ERA in 2010) after adding a sharp curveball to go along with his excellent changeup and plus fastball. Roy Oswalt has posted a 7-1 record with a 1.74 ERA since joining the Phils in July, and Roy Halladay will be well rested and ready to go.

ADVANTAGE: Phillies.
BULLPEN

The Phillies were able to compile such an excellent record in September due in large part to the bullpen’s ability to hold leads late in games, and more specifically the consistency of setup man Ryan Madson and closer Brad Lidge. Much like the rest of the team, the bullpen really gelled in the last few months of the season. The Phillies will also benefit from having starters Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick available to throw from the bullpen. The Reds ranked eighth in the National League in bullpen ERA, but do have a left-handed All-Star setup man in Arthur Rhodes. The wild-card here is the aforementioned Aroldis Chapman, who could bridge the gap nicely between starting pitcher and setup man, or even starting pitcher and closer. Closer Francisco Cordero compiled 40 saves in the 2010 season, and has been reliable for much of the season.

ADVANTAGE: Even.

LINEUP

The Reds lead the NL in homeruns, slugging percentage, and runs scored. They have a number of players that are capable of hitting the ball out of the park, and have some offensive veteran leadership in Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, and Johnny Gomes. Young players like Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs are also making their marks on a deep Reds lineup that, like the Phillies, can score runs in bunches. The Phillies, while wildly inconsistent for most of 2010, are swinging the bats well at the right time. Jayson Werth, in the midst of a contract year, has underperformed, although he has come on as of late. The Phillies need their lone right handed power option to be swinging the bat well in order for the Phillies to avoid falling prey to the Reds left-handers in the bullpen. If Jimmy Rollins can be a factor, whether it’s as the leadoff or further down in the order, the Phillies lineup will be dynamic and hard to stop. Catcher Carlos Ruiz has been incredible in the playoffs, batting .303 in the Phillies three past postseason appearances.

ADVANTAGE: Phillies.

SERIES OUTLOOK

The Reds have sort of taken the National League Central by surprise this year, knocking off the very talented and very much favored St. Louis Cardinals. They did it behind the sensational play of first baseman Joey Votto, and a consistently explosive offense. The attitude of the team, behind Manager of the Year candidate Dusty Baker, has also seemed to become more confident in its youth and talent. However, there is a reason the Phillies are the favorites to reach the World Series for the third straight season. Their starting pitching has been fabulous down the stretch with Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt; the team has displayed a tenacious resilience and desire to win after being nearly depleted by injuries. The Phillies also have the experience of playoff baseball, whereas an overwhelming majority of the Reds do not. How the Phillies come out in Game 1 will be very indicative of how the series will play out and if they can get to the starters early, the Reds will be in trouble. I look for the Phillies to continue their playoff run into the NLCS and win in 4 games.
GAME 1: Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA) vs. Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
GAME 2: Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA) vs. Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
GAME 3: Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (12-7, 3.64 ERA) at Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
GAME 4: TBD (If Necessary) at Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
GAME 5: TBD (If Necessary) at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA