It has been a rough year for Pirates and their fans, but at least there is a silver lining to their season of losing, and that is getting the number 1 overall pick next year. While the number 1 pick should never be looked at as a badge of honor, their is no better way to energize your fanbase and rebuild your team than with top young talent. The Pirates witnessed first hand just what it means to have a number one overall pick, when they went to Washington in early June and faced the Nationals 2009 1st overall pick Stephen Strasburg in his Major League debut. Strasburg blew away the Pirates for a franchise record 14 strikeouts (on a pitch count no less) in front of 40,000 Nats fans.

That is exactly what the Pirates need a player with the hype and talent to energize the fanbase and make the team a better product on the field. Now obviously the Nationals had a setback with Strasburg getting injured later in the year, but his presence keeps the future bright for Washington. The Pirates have done a good job assembling some young talent (which is a big reason why they ended up with the top overall pick) on their major league team, and have a farm system stocked to the brim with promising young arms, due to an aggressive draft strategy these last couple of years.

While the Pirates might not find a Stephen Strasburg in this draft, there are a number of very good prospects for the Pirates to choose from. While the Pirates have shown no hesitation to spend on high schoolers if they are worth the price tag, this is a good year to have a top pick since it is brimming with college talent. For their fans sake the Pirates need someone to rise quickly through their organization and join the young talent they currently have assembled on their roster.

While a lot can change between now and next June, the top 5 players who will be draft eligible next season are college guys and all are worthy of a number one overall pick:

Anthony Rendon – 3B Rice: Rendon is coming off a bad ankle injury, but if he still shows he can hit, it shouldn’t affect his draft status. While the Pirates have Pedro Alvarez at 3rd right now they can always shift him over to first, since Rendon is a superior defender. Barring some unforeseen failure to come back from the injury I think he has to be the Pirates pick. Middle of the order bats don’t grow on trees, and those that play above average-good defense at a tougher position like 3B are very rare.

Gerrit Cole – RHP UCLA: Cole is the closest thing in this draft to Strasburg and a strong Junior campaign could push him to challenge Rendon for the top spot. While he has the ability to be a number 1 pitcher, he isn’t as advanced as Strasburg. He would have to be significantly above Rendon for me to take him over the 3B. Pitchers are always harder to project, have a higher injury risk, and obviously don’t play everyday. While the Pirates are desperate for starters it is never good to draft based on need. Also this is a deep draft and they should be able to get very good pitchers in rounds 2 and 3.

Matt Purke – LHP TCU: Purke was the top pick of Texas two years ago, but they couldn’t find the money to sign him. Now as a draft eligible sophomore he will likely end up a top 5 pick. While he isn’t quite yet in the same class as David Price he is firmly a number 2 pitcher with the potential to develop into a number 1. If he blows up this year, and Rendon and Cole struggle a bit he is well worth the top spot.

George Springer – OF UCONN: Springer is really shooting up draft boards with a strong summer and 5-tool potential. His strikeouts remain high, but has great power and could even project to play in CF (though RF might be his best position). If Springer has a great year, he could appeal to the Pirates if Rendon doesn’t come back from the injury and they prefer an everyday guy.

Taylor Jungmann – RHP Texas: In most years Jungmann would be a top pick, or would fall no worse than 3rd overall but in this draft class he might be lucky to hang on to a top 5 spot. He has number 1 pitching potential, but will likely end up more as a very good number 2 (and nothing wrong with that at all). His secondary pitches still need some work as does his command, but Jungmann remains a top pitching prospect and one with an outside shot of going first overall.

Two months and nine days ago the Washington Nationals took Bryce Harper with the first overall pick in the draft, finally tonight at midnight we will know whether he will join the Nationals or not. The Nationals aren’t alone in wondering whether their top pick will sign, as the majority of first round picks haven’t agreed to terms yet, but Harper is the biggest fish and all eyes will be on Washington this evening. Now most people will try to lay the blame for the stalled negotiations on either the Nationals or Harper’s “agent” Scott Boras (some will even try to throw Harper under the bus, like a 17 year old kid is really impacting the negotiations), but really the blame for the 11th hour cram session belongs at the feet of MLB.

Major League Baseball does everything in their power to hold up overslot bonuses for draft picks, particularly the major ones (i.e. Harper). Their belief is that by holding up the deals, players can’t negotiate off one another as much. Also, since they don’t like the deals, instead of having news stories about every major deal over slot that is signed, the stories end up getting lumped together with only the cream rising to the top. Take the Nationals for instance…

They signed 3 draft picks over slot yesterday spending a reported $3.8 million on Sammy Solis, A.J. Cole, and Robbie Ray. While all three of these deals were overslot (especially Cole which set a 4th round record), they weren’t nearly as widely reported as if they were signed separately. For one thing, nationally most teams are signing deals similar to these, so the national media needs to cover all of them. And locally there are three deals to write about at the same time as opposed to one, giving less space and follow up stories per deal compared to if they were signed three different times. And finally with the Bryce Harper negotiations to report on, where is the time to write about A.J. Cole’s contract?

It would seem as though MLB was right in holding off overslot deals since they accomplish their goals, unfortunately it is all smoke and mirrors and there are tangible consequences for their tactics. These agents all have a general idea of what other top prospects are going to sign for, and in fact a handful of agents represent the majority of guys who will sign the biggest deals meaning some of these agents have all the leverage they need. Secondly, with so many industry sources now like ESPN and Baseball America (among others), in addition to all the various sports bloggers these stories still get reported, and with the power of the internet we can look up these bonus figures any time. As for pushing back these deals, MLB ends up hurting both the player and the team.

Instead of helping the team’s gain leverage, Major League Baseball takes away one of their biggest advantages by making them wait. By browbeating teams into not announcing big signings earlier teams can’t use the leverage of starting their minor league career earlier (this also hurts the players by setting them back). While the weekly pay in the minors isn’t anything special, the sooner a player starts in the minors then in all likelihood the sooner he gets to the majors and starts earning big money (this is also for the agents who hold out for 50K). Players who sign right away get an extra 3 months of minor league ball and a chance to assimilate with other draft picks. While three months doesn’t seem like a big deal, it can be for hitters it is their first extended time hitting with wooden bats, and for pitchers they have to learn to pitch differently against wooden bats, and for teams they get three months to daily evaluate these players to see what they need to work on, and if they need any major changes. So instead of helping teams, MLB just hurts them and their draft picks by setting them back from helping in the big leagues.

So what does all of this mean? Well that the Major League Baseball draft system is pretty screwed up is a good first answer, but the real answer is not alot. I fully expect Harper and almost every other 1st round pick to sign. In addition the vast majority of other top 10 round picks will sign by midnight as well. As for Harper specifically, I think he will get a record bonus, and quite possibly an MLB contract (it will help defer the bonus). Hopefully in the future some changes will be made to this system, but for now let’s not blame so much the teams, agents and players and look at who is really behind this charade.

According to Baseball America, the Washington Nationals inked two 7 figure deals this morning with their 2nd (LHP Sammy Solis) and 4th round picks (RHP A.J. Cole). The signings show that they aren’t just pegging all of their hopes on 1st round pick Bryce Harper (who is still expected to sign by tomorrow night’s deadline). Both Solis and Cole project to be top 3 starters and are desperately needed arms for the Nats future rotation.

While Solis is the Nats 2nd round pick, his bonus ($1 million) is reportedly half of what Cole got as the 4th round pick. Solis did receive over $300K what the typical ‘slot price’ of his selection would receive. Giving him quite the nice pay day. Solis is a college lefty and is much closer to the majors. If everything goes well he could be ready for the show by early 2012 (if not sooner). Solis profiles as a number 3 starter and would look quite good in the Nationals rotation behind Strasburg and Zimmermann. Now that is the best case scenario, and what the Nats are hoping for after shelling out $1 million, but at the very least he should be a solid 5th starter.

A.J. Cole is the real prize here even if it is all potential. He is a tall, projectable RHP who already touches the high 90′s. In addition to his power fastball, Cole has shown a plus curve ball and a solid potential changeup. If all three pitches continue to develop, Cole could very well end up as a 1 or a 2 (much more likely his ceiling). Cole is well worth the investment of $2 million and was considered by some to be the 2nd or 3rd best High School pitcher in the draft. His price tag and lack of refinement pushed him down in the draft, but he is well worth a 4th round pick and the early 1st round money the Nats gave up to ink him. While he might not be a truly finished product, Cole has a bright future.

The Nationals did a great job signing these two young pitchers. By grabbing higher upside guys with bigger price tags, the Nats turned their 4th round pick into a Top 15 pick value, and their 2nd round pick (51st overall) into the value of the low 30′s. Now if the the Nationals can add 12th round pick Robbie Ray, a LHP who is committed to Arkansas in addition to Bryce Harper, Washington could have the best draft class in baseball, and a farm system that can begin to produce All-Star caliber talent.

1. Nationals: Bryce Harper C

2. Pirates: Jameson Tallion P

3. Orioles: Manny Machado SS

4. Royals: Chris Sale LHP

5. Indians: Michael Choice OF

6. Diamondbacks: Drew Pomeranz P

7. Mets: Zach Cox 3B

8. Astros: Josh Sale OF

9. Padres: Kolbrin Vitek 2B

10. Athletics: Justin O’Conner C

11. Blue Jays: Karsten Whitson P

12. Reds: Christian Colon SS

13. White Sox: Yasmani Grandal C

14. Brewers: Matt Harvey P

15. Texas Rangers: Barrett Loux P

16. Cubs: Alex Wimmers P

17. Rays: Bryce Brentz OF

18. Angels: Dylan Covey P

19. Astros: Delino DeShields Jr. OF

20. Red Sox: Anthony Ranaudo P

21. Twins: Brandon Workman P

22. Rangers: Deck McGuire P

23. Marlins: Luke Jackson P

24. Giants: Yordy Cabrera SS/3B

25. Cardinals: Sammy Solis P

26. Rockies: Asher Wojciechowski P

27. Phillies: Jesse Biddle P

28. Dodgers: Kaleb Cowart 3B

29. Angels: Peter Tago P

30. Angels: Stetson Allie P

31. Rays: Jedd  Gyorko 2B

32. Yankees: Nick Castellanos 3B

Lately much has been made about recent comments by Scott Boras, Bryce Harper’s agent, that his client shouldn’t catch in the majors. While much has been made about Boras’ comments, he might not be too far off the mark. Yes, Harper is by far the best catching prospect in this draft and could become an elite defensive catcher, with 40 HR power, which would make him a rare commodity. But there are some serious risks involved with keeping Harper behind the plate.

The first of which is the injury concern. Catching takes a lot out of a player and puts him at a serious risk for back and knee injuries. Not to mention the fact that a 95 mph ball is being hurled at you and a bat is being swung just a few feet away. There are plenty of freak injuries that happen to catchers that other positions don’t face. So no matter how you try to protect them, catchers will be injured more on average than other positions.

The next concern for catchers is the consistency of their bat. There are just a few catchers whom you would consider as good hitters in this league, and backup catchers are always offensive liabilities. Even the best offensive catchers (with the exception of Mauer) don’t put up that great of offensive numbers, they are just better by comparison. Now part of that is some of the better hitters are moved to new positions a la Harper, but the other part of that is the daily grind of catching makes it harder to be consistent offensively.

The last universal concern with keeping Harper at the catching spot is that it would slow down his progress to the majors. Harper’s bat and offensive game is nearly ready for the big leagues, and he could legitimately be up in 2 years (maybe even sooner if he doesn’t holdout until August 15th). Defensively Harper will need another year or two to learn the nuances of calling a game at the major league level. In addition, he will need to work on his receiving, throwing skills, and blocking major league quality breaking balls. For the Nationals, they will have to think long and hard about what path has more value. Because if Harper could be ready 2 years from now, and say be able to play RF, Washington would have a nice little lineup around him with Ryan Zimmerman, Nyjer Morgan, Ian Desmond, and potentially Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham as well. If Harper can step in and produce, that could be a playoff caliber lineup. If the team waits for him as a catcher, than players like Dunn and Willingham may no longer be relied upon, and there is a lot more unknown involved with the team.

While all of those are valid reasons to consider a position change, the Nationals have an even better one; they play in the National League and can’t DH Harper to keep his bat in the lineup. Even the best catchers only catch around 130 games a year and that is if they are relatively healthy. That means they are likely to get between 550-570 plate appearances (and some of those are pinch hitting opportunities), now AL catchers will DH some of their off days and get additional PA’s, but NL catchers don’t have that luxury. If Harper is a middle of the order hitter that everyone is projecting him to be, and were to play every day he would get anywhere between 675-715 plate appearances. While the 125+ PA’s might not seem like a big deal, that is roughly a month worth of PA’s and games that he could impact. Why would you willingly ‘bench’ one of your star hitters for that many chances at the plate.

If Harper shows that aptitude (in addition to the athleticism) we know he already has than why not have him in the lineup every day at one of the corner outfield spots. As great as a defensive catcher that Harper has the potential to be, I don’t know if it is worth the wait, injury risk, and loss of PA’s to keep him behind the plate. The Nationals also have further reason to make the move, since they already have one of the better hitting catchers in the minor leagues in Derek Norris. Norris is just 21 and in High A ball, but should be ready (if his defense progresses) in 2 years. While Harper is better across the board, Norris is a very good catching prospect and should allow the Nats to move Harper off the position. While Norris could move, his bat wouldn’t translate nearly as well in the outfield (nor does he have as much athletic ability).

Corner Outfielders:

1. Michael Choice

2. Bryce Brentz

3. Austin Wilson

4. Jose Sale (also could be a corner infielder)

5. Kyle Parker

6. Christian Yelich (also could be a 1st baseman)

7. Drew Vettleson

It is not a deep year for corner outfield prospects, as there could be under 10 drafted in the top 100 picks. Of these 7 only Choice, Brentz and Parker are college guys, and Parker comes with some serious risk. He is Clemson’s starting quarterback, and coming off a very good redshirt freshman season, meaning he has a couple of  more years of eligibility on the football field. It might not be easy to buy him out of that commitment entirely, and if you are willing to have him split time between football and baseball, you could very well lose him in a couple of years. Brentz has fallen down some draft boards, but it wouldn’t shock me if he ends up being the best of this group. Choice is one of the best power prospects in this class and could very well end up being the top outfielder taken. If he finds a way to stay in center field (unlikely) then Choice would likely be a top 5 talent. As for the High Schooler’s, Sale is a legit top 10 talent if he can stay at 3B (probably still worth it as an outfielder as well), he may slide a little in the draft, but probably won’t get out of the top 15 given his potential. Wilson has 5-tool potential if he can learn better pitch recognition and not strikeout quite as much. He will be a bit more of a project, but could be worth it for some team.

Center fielders:

1. Gary Brown

2. Brett Eibner (could be drafted as a pitcher)

3. Mel Rojas Jr.

4. Austin Wates

5. Jarrett Parker

6. Delino DeSheilds Jr. (might move to 2B)

7. Ryan Lamarre

8. Levon Washington

9. Aaron Shipman

Center field is a little deeper of a position than the corner outfield spot, but it isn’t nearly as top heavy. There could be 4 corner outfielders taken in the top 20 (counting Sale), when it is quite possible the top centerfielder isn’t off the board yet. Brown and Eibner are fighting to be the top CF taken in this class, with I think Brown being the better player, but Eibner likely drafted higher (though possibly as a pitcher). Brown is probably the fastest player in this draft and should be a weapon on the basepaths and in robbing hits in the outfield. He hits the ball well, but likely won’t have too much pop at the next level. He will have to show better plate patience to keep his OBP up enough to justify him hitting at the top of the lineup. Eibner is an interesting case, because it seems like a number of teams like him as a pitcher. While he probably could be successful in that role, he is probably no more than a mid-rotation starter. I think he is far more valuable as a centerfielder, where his skill set profiles well with a Jim Edmonds type. He has a strong arm, and good power and approach on offense. He still needs to work on some areas, but if he can switch to hitting full time he should develop quickly. For me the biggest reason I’d make him a hitter, is because that is what he wants to do and is his greater passion.

As for the rest of the bunch there are a number interesting athletes available in the Sandwich Round through the 3rd Round. Two that really stick out are Mel Rojas Jr. and Delino DeSheilds Jr., both are sons of big league ball players and both have the potential to be all-stars. DeSheilds may move to 2nd base, but he is probably worth at least trying in center in rookie ball to see what he takes to. Wates is an interesting case, because no one really knows if he can play center. He has spent the majority of his time in the corner or at 1st base leaving scouts unsure of if he can still handle the position. He has the potential to be a good centerfielder, but losing this year of development time for defense will slow down his timetable to the majors.

All-in-all it is an interesting outfield class. There are some very talented players in the corner, and a ton of potential in center, but this class is lacking the depth or top 5-10 talent we usually see from the outfield position.

1. Washington Nationals: C Bryce Harper- At this point this is a no brainer pick. Harper has established himself as the best hitter in this draft class and has All-Star potential.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Manny Machado- The Pirates have shown a willingness to shell out a big bonus and go after a more premium level of talent these last couple of seasons. Machado could be a special player down the road and seems like a good pick for Pittsburgh. As long as his bonus demands don’t get outrageous, he seems like a good pick.

3. Baltimore Orioles: LHP Drew Pomeranz- The O’s have been linked to a number of players including some of the top H.S. arms. Normally I’d tend to agree with that track, but Baltimore is without a 2nd round pick making this pick that more crucial for the success of their draft. I think they take a college player from a position that isn’t deep in this draft. I would say 3B Zach Cox is also an option here.

4. Kansas City Royals: C Yasmani Grandal- The Royals also seem likely to bypass on some of the premium H.S. talent to get a more sure thing with their top pick. Grandal is a very good catching prospect who is worthy of a top 5 pick. Given the scarcity of the position, and the fact that Kansas City’s Will Myers (top catching prospect) will likely move off the position Grandal makes sense here.

5. Cleveland Indians: LHP Chris Sale- The Indians will be quite happy to get one of the top two lefties in this class with the 5th pick. Sale has moved up the draft boards this year with a dominate season, and looks like a safe bet going forward.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Deck McGuire- The D-backs get one of the most major league ready pitchers with this pick in McGuire. He isn’t a 1 or a 2 likely at the next level, but should reach the majors quickly.

7. New York Mets: RHP James Tallion- This is the Mets dream scenario, as he is the best high school pitcher in the draft and considered by many to be a top 3 talent. He could go to the O’s or Royals, but they could go the safer route with a college player. He has the potential to develop into a frontline starter.

8. Houston Astros: OF Jose Sale- Houston could go the safe route and take a college player like Michael Choice, but Sale seems like a good pick for them. He has great power and could end up in the middle of a major league lineup 4 or 5 years from now.

9. San Diego Padres: OF Michael Choice- Choice is the top college outfielder in this class and would be a top 5 pick if he definitely had the speed to stay in center. Even if the does have to move to the corner, he should be above average defensively and hit for more than enough power.

10. Oakland Athletics: 3B Zach Cox- Cox is another player who could go anywhere in the top 10, but is probably the best hitting infielder in this class.  I think he will slide a bit since his defense is still a work in progress, but will be well worth the investment.

11. Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Karsten Whitson- Whitson has established himself as the 2nd best H.S. pitching prospect in this class and would be a great pick here for the Jays.

12. Cincinnati Reds: SS Christan Colon- The Reds have had pretty good success grabbing college players these past few years, given the up-and-coming team they have I think they stay that route. Colon will need to work on his hitting some, but he is a major league SS, which makes him a steal here for the Reds.

13. Chicago White Sox: RHP Alex Wimmers- Wimmers will sign quickly for the White Sox and while he doesn’t have the highest ceiling he is a very sure bet for reaching it. He could be in the majors by mid-2011, and emerge as a solid number 3.

14. Milwaukee Brewers: SS Nick Castellanos-One of the best prep hitters in this class if teams think his demands aren’t too high than he should be a top 15 pick.

15. Texas Rangers: RHP Asher Wojciechowski- The Rangers need to draft someone who won’t hold out here since this pick isn’t protected. Wojciechowski is a top 20 talent so it wouldn’t be too much of a reach here. He’s another solid mid-rotation pitcher who should move quickly.

16. Chicago Cubs: RHP Brandon Workman- Workman has big time upside and could go earlier if someone falls in love with him. He is a good fit for a pitching starved Cubs system.

17. Tampa Bay Rays: OF Gary Brown- The Rays love toolsy, speedy outfielders and Brown fits that bill to the T. He has gotten better every year and could end up being a steal here.

18. Los Angeles Angels: RHP Dylan Covey- The Angels love drafting guys from their back yard, and high upside H.S. prospects. Covey fits the bill on both counts and seems like their pick.

19. Houston Astros: 2B Delino DeShields Jr.- The Astros are looking to add high upside players to their organization as they begin their long rebuilding process. The fact that DeShields is a MLB legacy doesn’t hurt either.

20. Boston Red Sox: RHP A.J. Cole- The Red Sox have the resources to go in any direction, but taking a young prospect with the arm and potential of Cole seems to make the most sense here.

21. Minnesota Twins: OF Bryce Brentz- The Twins aren’t likely to explode their budget for their top pick. I think similar to last year they will try and grab a top 10 talent who fell due to injury or under-performance.

22. Texas Rangers: 3B Kaleb Cowart- One of the better prep hitters in this class, Cowart has the potential to be a middle of the order hitter if he keeps adding strength. As a bonus he his a 1st round talent as a pitcher and could interest some teams in that role.

23. Florida Marlins: RHP Barrett Loux- Marlins are going to take someone who is signable from college, and Loux seems like their man.

24. San Francisco Giants: 2B Kolbrin Vitek- The Giants could get the best 2nd basemen by far in this draft with this pick. He doesn’t have Chase Utley upside, but he should be in the majors inside 2 years and a solid starter.

25. St. Louis Cardinals: LHP James Paxton- I think the Cards will keep stockpiling pitching with this pick. Paxton is the next best lefty and a sure bet to be a good starter at the next level.

26. Colorado Rockies: RHP Aaron Sanchez- Another high upside prep arm, that the Rockies seem to like.

27. Philadelphia Phillies: OF Brett Eibner- The Phillies system is gutted right now and they could use some players who are closer to the majors.

28. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Stetson Allie- The Dodgers love drafting prep pitchers in the first round, seems like a great fit here.

29. Los Angeles Angels: RHP Matt Harvey- The Angels could get a steal here if Harvey develops like everyone thought he would.

30. Los Angeles Angels: SS Yordy Cabrera- With a number of picks, I think the Angels can afford to draft a high upside SS like Cabrera.

31. Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Anthony Ranaudo- This pick isn’t protected so the Rays need to grab someone who will sign, Ranaudo will be happy to see his name finally off the board after an injury derailed this year for him.

32. New York Yankees: RHP Tyrell Jenkins- The Yankees are likely to grab a prep player with this pick and Jenkins could be that player. He’s a player with a lot of upside that the Yankees won’t mind paying for.

The presumptive number 1 selection in this year’s MLB draft is a 17 year-old kid named Bryce Harper. Harper is an intriguing story because in reality he should be just a high school junior right now and ineligible for the draft. Given his prestigious talent, he got his GED over the summer so he could enter the College of Southern Nevada, a two-year Community College, making him draft eligible a year early.

Now there were many reasons for entering CSN, the first of which was to make him a better player and prospect. While the competition level of Southern Nevada isn’t on par with that of most four year universities, it is much higher than high school. Also the coaching and instruction are at a higher level which has allowed Harper to be a more well rounded player. The greatest benefit of playing at CSN from a prospect status is that Southern Nevada plays in a wood bat league. All high schools and four year universities use metal bats, making it sometimes hard to project hitters at the next level. And while there are summer leagues and tournaments that these players can play in to get evaluated, Harper definitely has an advantage playing in a wood bat regular season league. The other reason Harper left high school early is a financial one.

By entering the draft earlier he makes himself into a better prospect since he will be a year younger than any high school talent and 4-5 years younger than any of the top college players. This gives him a major advantage, given his advanced talents since he should theoretically have a longer career since he is starting it earlier. Also, by getting drafted a year earlier he will sign earlier and make the Major Leagues sooner, each equaling a good chunk of change. Lastly one of the biggest reasons to enter the draft early is the belief that changes may be on the way involving the MLB draft process, and in particular the signing bonuses. Right now as it stands teams don’t have a set limit outside of their own budget, in what they can offer players. While the League frowns on excessive spending they don’t have any recourse in forcing teams not to spend a certain amount. Now teams don’t offer blank checks, because they do use past contracts and bonuses as guides, but players can get a pretty good chunk of change. For Harper that money should well be within the $10-15 million range. If the league institutes some sort of a hard cap or slotting system, that money could go down to the $7-8 million range. While its not definitive that there will be new rules in place by 2011, it is something that both the league and teams want to tweak. Finally the last advantage of Harper coming out early is it in theory gives him more leverage in negotiations. I for one believe this leverage theory has been blown way out of proportion.

It is true that baseball prospects have more leverage than any other prospects since they can always return to school or try independent baseball. And it is also true that if Harper doesn’t like the offer he has on the table he could go back to the draft and hope for a better outcome. But the fact of the matter is that is all posturing. Harper has no advantage to return to school, and holding out till next year almost never works.

First off, you have to assume that in 2011 there won’t be rule changes to the 2011 draft format that would limit Harper’s negotiating ability. Unless there is some very clear indication by the August signing deadline then there is no way Harper can return to school. Even if there are no rule changes it makes absolutely no sense for Harper to do so. Every year he goes back he loses some luster and some leverage. Right now he is younger than any high school player, but if he goes back then he joins the high school class he was originally apart of. While he still might be the best young prospect, he would be a year older in 2011.

Also, basic economics show that by waiting a year Harper is losing money, even if he does end up getting more in 2011 (depending on how much more). Money now is always preferable to money in the future, in addition Harper can’t become a Major League free agent until he has been in the big leagues for six years. So by holding out a season Harper is putting off his free agent pay day by another year. That could potentially be tens of millions of dollars that Harper would be losing out on.Finally, when it comes to money the sooner Harper signs, the sooner he can sign endorsement deals as well. Harper can’t get sponsorship money and retain his amateur status. Not to mention that depending on where Harper gets drafted, there will be plenty of local sponsorship opportunities as well. While its hard to judge how much that could be, since MLB prospects don’t usually get the same sponsorship money that NBA and NFL ones get Harper could be the exception to that rule.

The last reason why Harper should sign this year is because I believe his leverage takes a huge hit in 2011. Right now he is by far the top prospect in the 2010 draft and much younger than any of his competitors. That’s not to say there aren’t other talented players in this class, but there is no other sure-fire number 1 pick. So by passing on Harper due to ‘signability’ you would likely be overpaying for a lesser talent. That can’t be said for the 2011 class, which is shaping up to be one of the best we’ve seen in a couple of years. If Harper does go back he could very well end up being the most talented player in that class as well, but the competition is a lot closer. Harper might still be number 1, but guys like Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Taylor Jungmann, and Matt Pruke are 1A-D. All are just as worthy of a top selection in non-Harper drafts and it is not unthinkable that one or two of them could surpass him in prospect status over the next year and a half. So if teams at the top of the draft don’t want to meet exorbitant demands, they have plenty of recourse to take another talented player as well. While Harper will get good money regardless of where he is drafted he won’t get a $15 million dollar deal in the middle of one of the deepest draft classes of the last decade. By that point Harper will lose out plenty if he decides to forgo the draft a second year and return for the 2012 draft (which will most likely have bonus rules in place).

Now this isn’t to say I don’t think Harper is worth the money or not worth the top pick. I believe fully that it is in the Nationals best interest to draft and sign Bryce Harper with the top pick in this year’s draft. Harper has destroyed the older level, wood bat competition hitting a ridiculous .431/.528/.931 (no thats not an OPS, that is his slugging percentage) with 12 home runs and 26 extra base hits through 31 games. He has the chance to be a truly elite player, especially if he can stay behind the plate where he currently projects. Even if he has to move to another position Harper is worth the top pick and a bonus in the range of $15 million. I just don’t believe this leverage fear, Harper didn’t work as hard as he did to earn his GED and give up his high school experience just so he could end up signing in his original draft class of 2011.

There has been a lot of talk recently of the General Managers and commissioner Selig getting together on ways to fix Major League Baseball’s amateur draft (Buster Olney has an excellent article about the issue at ESPN, subscription required). The crux of the problem is that there is a major disparity between teams that spend money on big signing bonuses and those who don’t. As a result some of the best young talents slide 5, 10, even 20 spots in the first round. On top of that teams will handout signing bonuses of 1st or 2nd round money to players all throughout their draft class.

Right now there is a ‘slotting’ system in place, where each draft position has a ‘recommended’ bonus. Unfortunately, there is no real tangible penalty the league can enforce for going over slot. And the only teams the league can put pressure on are the small market teams (aka the ones who can least afford to go cheap in the draft) by withholding money or events. Now there are a number of ways the league could look to improve/fix the draft, but I think the area they should focus on; are the trading of draft picks and players rights.

Before I get into my proposal, I wanted to highlight the option that seemingly is the one most bandied about, hard slotting. Hard slotting is essentially assigning a bonus amount for each draft slot and if the player signs thats what they get. Now that is glossing over it a bit, but it would make the MLB Draft similar to the NBA draft. The problem with that is there are few similarities between the MLB and NBA in player development. In the NBA, players are ready to enter the league and for the most part begin their career from day one. In Baseball even the elite prospects need a year or more of minor league development time. There is a greater uncertainty of MLB prospects even making it to the big leagues, much less having successful careers. That is why the draft is 50 rounds (though teams sign traditionally between 25-35 players, sometimes more) compared to 2 rounds for the NBA.

In other leagues, the draft is usually predicated on team needs, baseball is the exception to that rule, since they can’t predict the impact of a particular player. Another issue for baseball teams is that their prospects have considerable more leverage than other sports. In NFL or NBA if you are drafted, you sign or hold out. In baseball if you are drafted not only can you sign or hold out, but players can decide to go to/back to college, or even play in independent ball for a season. With this extra leverage teams have to pay a higher price for talent. If there was a hard slotting system, plenty of mid-round players who sign for first round money would simply just go to school instead of now signing for 4th or 5th round money. Hard slotting would limit the talent pool each season, and make it harder to rebuild through the draft (though I’m sure colleges would be happy). For these reasons baseball teams need more flexibility in building their roster, and a deeper talent pool, two things they can’t do with hard slotting in place.

What Baseball does need to do is allow the trading of draft picks or draft rights. As it stands now draft slots can’t be traded and any player who is drafted must not only sign with his drafted team, but also be with the organization for a year after signing until he can be traded. The one semi-workaround of this archaic rule is the “Player To Be Named Later” (PTBNL) rule that allows a six-month window to ‘name’ the player, so a player drafted in June could be traded the following December or January as a PTBNL. Even in that instance a player needs to sign with that original team, before he could be named as a PTBNL. This is easily the worst rule in baseball, and one that again hurts the wrong teams. The rule is in effect so small market teams won’t “sell” a player or pick to a big market team for just cash. And that I understand, draft picks shouldn’t be sold if the original team isn’t getting any ‘baseball’ value back. But is the eliminating of all trading the only way to ensure this? The league already must approve any trade of over $1 million dollars in cash changing hands…wouldn’t that bylaw stop any shady transactions? Now instead of a big market team like the Yankees or Red Sox having to trade up for a top prospect, and they stay where they are and still potentially get that player.

The best example of why this rule is out of date is this past year’s draft. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles, two rebuilding franchises, who had each spent big money on a single prospect over the past two years, selected 4th and 5th in the draft. With the top talents Strasburg and Ackley off the board, they were left looking at an industry consensus of a number of high potential pitching arms to choose from. The problem is most of those players were rumored to be asking for bonuses between $5-7 million, so instead of drafting one of those arms the decided to draft 1st round talents (though not considered top-5) who would sign for the recommended ’slot’. While it looks as though the Pirates and Orioles took the ‘cheap way’ out, they spent the money they saved on their 1st round pick later in the draft signing a number of players for more than ‘slot’. They ended up being the 5th and 6th biggest spenders in last years draft (according to numbers compiled by Baseball America). They ended up being punished for their not wanting to break the bank on a particular player, and going with quality-quantity over one big name prospect. If they had been able to trade back they could have still gotten the player they wanted, as well as additional draft picks later to further deepen their impressive draft classes. In addition they actually “overpaid” their draft picks, since if they traded back and drafted them 5-10 spots later their ‘slot’ value would be less. The trading of picks has no downside in today’s game of baseball and will allow teams who aren’t in love with the industry consensus player, to get extra value out of their pick.