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An Interesting Trade Idea

August 23, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

A lot of trade talk and rumors have surrounded the Vikings of late now that No. 4 is back under center, and the speculation is that Sage Rosenfels is on his way out of Minnesota. Sports Illustrated’s Don Banks had an interesting article speculating on a number of possible trade fits for Rosenfels, but I think he left out maybe the most obvious one, the St. Louis Rams. Now in fairness Banks wrote his piece before A.J. Feeley went down with an injury the other night, but even before then the Rams should be interested in a stopgap starting quarterback.

A.J. Feeley isn’t exactly the best option for a starting quarterback in this league and the Rams desperately need someone to hold the reins while Bradford gets his feet wet. I know there is a growing sentiment in the NFL to start rookie quarterbacks in year one, despite the fact that it rarely works, but the Rams need to be smart here. This isn’t the New York Jets last year, a playoff caliber team (and I still believe that the Jets might have rushed Sanchez) for a rookie quarterback to hide his inexperience on. The Rams have been awful for quite some time, and they don’t exactly have the best offense around Sam Bradford.

In two preseason games Bradford has struggled mightily, and things will only get worse when he is in regular game action. I know the Rams invested a lot of money and their top pick in him, but that is no reason to rush him into the starting role. In fact it is because they invested so much in him, that they should be extra cautious and careful with Bradford. And trading for Rosenfels would help solve their dilemma at quarterback. Right now it might make sense to put Bradford atop the depth chart given that his performance isn’t that much worse than Feeley (though considering how low that bar is set, it should be cause for concern), and he has this seemingly limitless potential. But if they add Rosenfels then there is a quarterback who can keep the seat warm, and teach the kid a thing or two.

Rosenfels I think could be a solid starter in this league. And while the Rams offensive situation won’t help his numbers, he should be manageable. Now I don’t think he will turn them into automatic contenders or completely make fans forget about Bradford. What he will do is let the rookie learn the game and the league, and take all the pressure off of him.

Now I am not saying Bradford should never play, maybe some mop-up duty late in games, and if he shows something, a start or two at the end of the year. But Bradford has no business starting more than half of the Rams games. There will be no good coming from that, and will likely only set him back another year or more in his development. If Brees, Brady, Rivers, Rodgers, and even Favre (as well as plenty of others) needed a year or more to develop, do we really think that Bradford is ready from day one? If the Rams are smart, they will give up a late round pick or two for protection for their future ‘franchise’ quarterback.

The Return of Favre

August 18, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Well it is that time of year, a time when preseason is already under way, and training camp is about to breakup and when the Vikings go from pretenders to contenders overnight. For me the return of Brett Favre is a happy time, because while the news coverage rivals the O.J. Simpson chase, at least it will bring an end to players, pundits and fans trying to float the notion of him not returning. Unless Favre was physically unable to play the position (in which case it shouldn’t have been all the negative hoopla), he was going to return and he was going to return now when training camp is breaking up.

Favre is too much of a competitor to have his career end so close to the Super Bowl, especially considering since most people wrongly try to blame Favre for the loss. That interception was ill timed, but wouldn’t have mattered if the Vikings hadn’t fumbled the ball so many times (fumbles that either cost them points or gave the Saints excellent field position). Not to mention the officiating at the end of that game was horrible and gifted the Saints that winning field goal attempt. Favre was not going to come that close to the Super Bowl, and walk away. It’s not in his blood and it is not in the way he has played the game for 20 years now.

While it might be unlikely for Favre to duplicate his numbers from last season (which were unreal for a 40 year old), Favre can still throw the ball a little bit. He returns pretty much the same offense, though I really like rookie backup running back Toby Gerhart. I would not be shocked to see Gerhart have a big impact with this team, and give Adrian Peterson some relief. I’m sure Favre would have liked to see the Vikings improve along the offensive line, since he almost got killed back there last season. Other than that question mark Favre has the pieces to turn this offense into a championship caliber team. That along with the Vikings killer defense, and Minnesota has a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl in (likely) Favre’s final season.

Brett Favre To Retire…Not So Fast

August 4, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Yesterday, the world of sports was abuzz with the news that Brett Favre would not be back with the Vikings this season. Now if it is true, that is major news, as not only does it affect the Vikings season, but it promotes Packers to the top of the NFC North. Also it makes the road to the Super Bowl that much easier for New Orleans, Dallas and company. So while it could potentially be major news, right now it is an unconfirmed rumor. And on top of that, it is in regards to Brett Favre, the ultimate Flip-Flopper.

Now I’m all for reporting rumors and a little idle speculation, but this was ridiculous yesterday as it kept building up to the point where it seems like everyone in America believes Brett Favre is retired. I mean haven’t we learned by now that we can’t trust Favre when he says he is retired, so why are we going to trust unconfirmed text messages? I won’t even begin to believe this story until the Vikings and/or Favre confirm it. And in all honesty I won’t believe Favre is done playing until he is either over the age of 50, or someone passes a law saying he can’t play football anymore. Until that time, I am going to believe in a possible comeback.

I’m sure there is a small fire that caused all this smoke, and I won’t say for certain he will be back and leading the Vikings to the playoffs. I think that ankle is a major concern, as is the willingness to take another beating like the one he took last year. But Favre has that competitive fire that every player aspires to. I think he will try to test out the ankle over the next week or two, and if it checks out he will be back with the Vikings by the middle of the month. If Favre comes back, I think he will be as good as ever and Minnesota could be a Super Bowl team. If not, than it will be an unfortunate end to an illustrious career and the Vikings are hurting.

Assume Brett Favre Will Be Playing In 2010

June 27, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

It was funny seeing Sears commercials with Brett Favre wallowing in uncertainty over which television to purchase. Those commercials pointed to the outward indecisiveness Favre exhibited over the last few off seasons, but Sears, as they poke fun at Favre,got it all wrong. Favre has yet to be uncertain about anything. In fact, I would go as far as to say that recently Favre has known his decision on retiring months in advance. Here’s why:

Professional football players don’t like to go to training camp. Favre knows that he can stay “indecisive” until the middle of the preseason – just enough time for him to get back in gear without laboring through grueling summer two-a-days. Give him credit – he plays his cards right.

As for this coming season, there shouldn’t be much doubt as to whether Favre is coming back simply because he is publicly considering it. But if that’s not enough, consider these factors:

-He has said that he’s in good shape and is capable of playing at a high level

-He has said that he would love to defeat the New Orleans Saints in week 1

-He just came off the best statistical year of his career

-He will be paid $13 million in 2010

-His teammates still somehow like him

It seems like a pretty clear decision for Favre that shouldn’t take the average human months to deliberate over. Who knows, maybe this year he’ll mix things up and show up before week 1 of the preseason. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: Favre will be playing football in 2010.

Quick Thoughts From Yesterday’s Games:

January 25, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Just How Good is Peyton Manning?:  When the Colts were down by 11, I think the Jets and their fans thought they could be Super Bowl bound, but they forgot about Manning. He absolutely went off on the number 1 ranked defense yesterday. And it didn’t seem to bother him that Darrelle Revis took away half the field, because Manning dominated the other half. For all we hear about Manning’s weapons of Wayne and Clark (a pair of former 1st round picks), it was Pierre Garcon (6th round 2008, Mount Union) and Austin Collie (4th round 2009, BYU) that dominated the Jets defense. It was just an all-around incredible performance by Manning yesterday, and showed why he is the best quarterback in the league.

Future Looking Brighter for Sanchez:  Mark Sanchez has had a tough rookie year and has been the weakest quarterback in the playoffs so far. He had shown flashes of being a good quarterback, but that was mostly against weaker competition and had also cost the Jets a few games this season. Of late though he’d been fairly mistake free, not because of major improvement in his game, but rather because of a much simpler passing attack. Sanchez was pretty much regulated to ‘safe’ intermediate and short throws so far in the playoffs. Yesterday though Sanchez had his best game of the playoffs (and his young career), he showed much better decision making and poise in the pocket. He didn’t try to force the ball in to coverage, and really showed something against a big team in the biggest game of his career. Now Sanchez has some things to work on, accuracy being the primary concern, but in 2-3 years Sanchez could become a pretty good starting quarterback.

Saints Go Marching On:  Who would have thought it would have been the Saints defense and special teams that sent them to the Super Bowl? While their defense got torched with yards and penalties, they came up with enough big plays to win yesterday. And how huge was the Peterson fumble right before half after the Bush muffed punt? That Saints defense all season has just been relentless in getting takeaways, and showed it again last night. Gregg Williams and company deserve most of the credit for that victory, because Favre had a great game yesterday. Think of what he would have done if he actually had time in the pocket? The Saints pass rush completely dominated the Vikings offensive line and had Favre on the ground quite a bit. The Saints defense was the key to the game, and is why they will be making their first Super Bowl appearance.

Just How Tough is Brett Favre?:  Now I realize all the talk now is about that last interception, and on whether or not it was Favre’s last game (again). But really we need to acknowledge that yesterday’s loss was on two things:  the offensive line play, and lack of ball control. Not only did the Saints recover a fumble inside the Vikings 20 yard line, but Minnesota coughed it up twice when they were at the Saints 10 yard line! And the offensive line, which had begun to collapse at the end of the season, looked awful yesterday. They couldn’t handle the stunts and blitz packages New Orleans was throwing at them, and Favre paid the price. Not only was he getting hit hard (and sometimes illegally), but he was injured and in obvious pain. Favre played well enough to win that game by a couple of touchdowns, but his 0-line and the fumbles cost them dearly.

Playoff Previews:

January 24, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Colts Heading to the Big Game:

Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets have been the underdog team throughout this year’s postseason. Now their road to the Super Bowl goes through (ends) in the place where in many ways it started. After a tough Week 15 loss to the Falcons, the Jets playoff hopes were all but over. They had to win their next game, which just so happened to be at Indianapolis. At the time the Colts were 14-0, and seemed likely to keep up the intensity for at least one more week (at least that is what I believed building my fantasy roster that week). Instead with a 5-point lead in the 3rd quarter, the Colts pulled their starters, and the Jets responded, winning 29-15.

That victory propelled the Jets on their unbelievable playoff run (pretty sure the Bengals and Chargers have taken the Colts off their Christmas card list) that will now come full circle. The Jets have won with defense, running the ball, and a little bit of luck, and will need all three factors in place today if they hope to overcome their playoff benefactor. This time though the Jets will have to contain Peyton Manning and company for 60 minutes, and that is a task that no one has been able to accomplish this season.

The Jets defense is great and one of the best we’ve seen, but so is the Manning and the Colts offense. New York will get after Manning and try to disrupt his timing, but he is so smart back there I don’t think they have a chance. While Darrelle Revis will probably take away Reggie Wayne for most of the game, the Colts have too many other weapons. In fact the best defense against the Colts scoring attack is the Jets own offense.

As long as the Jets offense is on the field, Manning is not and their defense can stay rested. Time of possession usually is something that is unimportant to the Colts (they won a game earlier this season with having the ball less than 15 minutes), but against the Jets that could be an exception. The Jets defense is good enough to slow down Colts to the point where they will need all the possessions they can get. The problem with the Jets is their offense won’t be able to control the clock, with long time consuming drives. While they are an excellent running team, they lack the passing attack to be complete. So far they’ve relied on big break-away runs, which are nice and worth 6 points like any touchdown, but not the sustained drives that they need. Putting up points is always good, but taking minutes off the clock is just as important.

In the end Manning will be too much for the Jets defense to handle. And while the Jets’ ground game may find some success, their lack of a passing attack will end up being the key today. Colts win 21-10 and begin packing for Miami.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet:

The New Orleans Saints Will Earn their First Super Bowl Birth:

The Minnesota Vikings have not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976, and the New Orleans Saints have not sniffed the Super Bowl in their franchise’s history. In 2007 the Saints played in their first NFC Championship – a game in which the Chicago Bears handled them with ease by the score of 39-14. In short, both franchises are overdue for a Super Bowl appearance. Unfortunately, one team has to be sent home on Sunday.

The Saints have been the team to beat over the course of the regular season, and they are the top playoff seed. Drew Brees has led one of the most prolific offenses in football, and the fast-paced aerial attack will be a different animal for the Vikings’ defense. Brees has been connecting with an assortment of talented receivers this season, and Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. Along with their production, Reggie Bush has been a major spark on both offense and special teams, and last week against the Cardinals, Bush looked dominant with 217 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. Bush is the quintessential X-factor for the Saints.

The Vikings are coming off a dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys. In their 34-3 win, they proved that not only can they beat a good team, but they can dominate a good team on both sides of the ball. Their defense shut down a stellar offense, and Brett Favre led the Vikings down the field with ease against what looked like the best defense in the playoffs. The Vikings stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but they bounced back resoundingly.

The Saints and Vikings are clearly the two best teams in the NFC, and Sunday’s match-up will be a narrowly decided game. The key to Minnesota winning comes down to how much pressure they can get on Brees. Last week, Jared Allen led the defensive line with an unyielding amount of pressure on Tony Romo, and if he can replicate his performance against the Saints, the Vikings will win. The Saints, though, have a better offensive line, and Brees delivers the ball much quicker than Romo, so it will be exponentially more difficult for the Vikings to shut down the Saints’ offense. Furthermore, Reggie Bush looked dominant last week, and when he is healthy, he adds yet another dimension to the Saints’ attack. Minnesota will not find the same success on defense this week, and the Saints will win at home for their first Super Bowl birth. Final Score: New Orleans 33 Minnesota 28.

Playoff Preview

January 17, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Fanspeak Contributing writer Geoff Nelowet

The Dallas Cowboys will continue their late-season success

The Dallas Cowboys have now won four straight games including a 34-14 romping of the division rival Philadelphia Eagles. That thrashing of the eagles was also the Cowboys’ first playoff victory with Tony Romo as quarterback, and it was the team’s first playoff victory since 1996.  The Cowboys, though, can not give even most of the credit to Romo, as their defense has played an integral role in the team’s overall success over the past few weeks.

The Cowboys find themselves in the playoffs mainly because of their defensive play. Over the last four weeks, the unit has not allowed more than 17 points, and three of the games they have gone up against two of the best offenses in football – the New Orleans Saints and the Eagles twice. For this reason, the Cowboys should be considered the favorite against the virtually untested Minnesota Vikings.

The 12-4 Vikings enjoyed a successful regular season with Brett Favre in command, but they had a notably soft schedule. Their resume is sparse, as their only impressive wins – or wins against teams with winning records – came against Green Bay twice, Baltimore and Cincinnati. All three were low playoff seeds, and only Baltimore is still alive this post-season. In short, the Vikings have much to prove even after notching 12 victories.

Both teams are of the same mold: They have tough, talented defenses (Minnesota’s D ranked 6th overall) and quarterbacks that continually walk a narrow line between brilliance and implosion. The Cowboys and Vikings can expect consistently solid play from their defenses, but predicting the unpredictable  play of Favre and Romo can be enigmatic. Both are aggressive gunslingers that can easily decide the game with their fantastic or horrific play.

Favre and the Vikings have had an ideal season, but they have stumbled as of late. At this moment, the Cowboys are a superior team, and both Romo and their defense have played at a consistently high level. The Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFL right now (aside from maybe the Chargers), and they will hand Favre and the Vikings a disappointing early exit from the playoffs. Final score: Dallas 30 Minnesota 20

The Favre Affect?

December 29, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

I know the media, fans, and bloggers like to jump on Brett Favre, and talk about how he can’t finish a season anymore. Or the dissension he causes in the locker room is catching up with the team. But come on, let’s be realistic! That is the least of the issues with this Vikings team. Yes he had a heated exchange his coach, but I don’t think that’s by any means out of line. This isn’t what Anquan Boldin did last season to Todd Haley or what we’ve seen from other players in the past. This was a heated discussion because Favre didn’t want to leave the game when his team could still win and because he was unhappy with the game plan. What is so wrong with that, he didn’t throw a tantrum or cuss him out after the game to the media. He simply was unhappy with how the game was going (as was every Viking fan in the country I presume). I mean we have situations where Tom Brady calls out his teammates commitment and effort (after he has one of his worse games of the season), and that’s barely mentioned in a negative light. Some bloggers and media members even credit him with ‘inspiring’ his team. We also have situations where Phillip Rivers is yelling and screaming at the refs about any call he doesn’t agree with. Yet somehow, someway Brett Favre is the team cancer and the troublemaker in the NFL, disrespecting the game left and right.

What is a team cancer and troublemaker for the Vikings is the play of their offensive line (though Adrian Peterson’s fumbling is a close second). This was supposed to be the best offensive line in football, but they have aged mighty quickly this season and of late have been one of the league’s worst. Peterson hasn’t averaged more than 4.0 yards a carry since week 10, and has only gotten higher than 4.o yards per carry six times this season (Browns, Lions twice, Rams, 49ers, and Ravens). Of those only three were 100+ yard days, Cleveland, Baltimore and Detroit. The O-line has crumbled in pass protection giving up now 34 sacks on the season. Those 34 sacks tie them with the Eagles for 20th worst in the NFL, only the Eagles and Packers are playoff teams with equally or worse offensive lines (though the Steelers could still join that group). Favre and the Vikings have gotten this far without a consistent running game or a decent offensive line. Imagine what they could do if they actually start playing up to their potential once the postseason begins?

NFL Power Rankings Week 12

December 2, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

  1. New Orleans Saints
  2. Indianapolis Colts
  3. Minnesota Vikings
  4. Cincinnati Bengals
  5. Arizona Cardinals
  6. Dallas Cowboys
  7. San Diego Chargers
  8. New England Patriots
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers
  10. Philadelphia Eagles
  11. Baltimore Ravens
  12. Denver Broncos
  13. Green Bay Packers
  14. New York Giants
  15. Jacksonville Jaguars
  16. Atlanta Falcons
  17. Houston Texans
  18. Miami Dolphins
  19. Tennessee Titans
  20. San Francisco 49ers
  21. New York Jets
  22. Chicago Bears
  23. Carolina Panthers
  24. Seattle Seahawks
  25. Buffalo Bills
  26. Kansas City Chiefs
  27. Oakland Raiders
  28. Washington Redskins
  29. Detroit Lions
  30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  31. St. Louis Rams
  32. Cleveland Browns

Top Ten:

After Monday Night’s drubbing of the New England Patriots, the Saints have finally passed the Colts in the Power Rankings department. That was an impressive win, that showed the Saints are for real and can beat any team. The Colts have had to come from behind these last few weeks, but they still have Peyton Manning and an 11-0 record. Brett Favre is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Vikings are another top contender with a 10-1 record. The Bengals are tops in the AFC North, which is good enough for 4th place in the Power Rankings. To stay up in the 4th spot the Bengals will need to get healthy, with upcoming road games against the Vikings and Chargers. The Cardinals might not have as many wins as a few of the other teams on this list, but their last loss was a heartbreaker at the end, and they played without Kurt Warner. Come playoff time Arizona is not a matchup I would want to have. The Cowboys have been a streaky team this season, so their Power Ranking is hard to determine, until you know which team will show up on Sunday. It could be the team that managed just two TD’s (combined) in consecutive weeks against the Packers and Redskins. Or the team that blew out the Raiders on Thanksgiving, and beat the Eagles in Philadelphia a few weeks ago. The Chargers seem to be in firm control of the AFC West now, but their running game is still non-existent. I can’t see them going to far this postseason if they can’t move the ball on the ground. The Patriots will win the AFC East so they have a playoff spot, but this does not look like a playoff team right now. They can’t stop teams through the air, which doesn’t bode well this season. And Brady is facing more pressure than he has ever faced, and its starting to show some weaknesses.

I know having the Pittsburgh Steelers ranked in the top ten will ruffle a few feathers, especially fans of teams that have a better record (Eagles), or that just beat Pittsburgh on Sunday night (Ravens), but I don’t know how you can leave them out of the top 10. Pittsburgh lost on Sunday, but it was in overtime, on the road, and with their 3rd string quarterback. Yes they have had some tough losses, but those have come without Troy Polumalu. With Rothelisberger and Polumalu coming back for the postseason run, you have to keep your eye on Pittsburgh down the stretch. The Eagles are a good football team, but their luck has helped them more than their talent level. They barely squeaked by the Bears and Redskins these past two weeks, and now face a Falcons team without Matt Ryan.

Next 10:

The Ravens and Broncos are fighting for one playoff spot if Pittsburgh rebounds. The Broncos were impressive Thursday night against the Giants, but I’m still waiting for that other shoe to drop. While they do face the Colts and Eagles in their remaining five games, they also have the Chiefs twice and the Raiders, so 10 wins is attainable. The Ravens also have three easy games remaining (Lions, Bears, Raiders) but that only gets them to 9 wins. They will have to beat the Packers or Steelers on the road if they want to secure themselves a playoff spot. The Packers and Giants are really the only teams that can get the last playoff spot in the NFC. Green Bay has played better of late, but that offensive line is still a big concern for me. If they can’t keep Rodgers upright, then they have no shot of winning. They also have a tough remaining schedule coming up with the Ravens, Steelers and Cards. The Giants also face a tough road ahead of them, facing the Cowboys, Eagles, and Vikings. The only good news for the Giants is the Cowboys and Eagles games are at home for them (also they should have easy wins against the Redskins and Panthers). As for the rest of the 11-20 teams, I don’t see any of them making a serious playoff run. The Jags have turned their season around, but I still don’t trust Garrard at QB, and their defense has been pretty bad this season. The Texans and Titans have been exciting of late, but I don’t think they have the staying power now. I would have said the Falcons could make a run, but that was before Matt Ryan went down with injury. Even if he only is out this week, another loss will put the Falcons pretty much out of it (if the Packers and Giants win). If the Dolphins had Pennington and Ronnie Brown healthy, they could have maybe made a run (especially since the Pats appear to be vulnerable), but without them, their playoff hopes are over. The 49ers could be an impressive team, but they desperately need consistent play from their quarterback to be competitive.

The Rest:

Its been an ugly year this season. If not for the fact that so many of these weaker teams played one another, I would have said that 2-3 teams could have gone winless this year. The only thing these teams have to look forward to is the offseason and next April’s draft. Its gonna be an ugly remaining 5 weeks for the majority of these teams.

Random Sports Thoughts:

November 20, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Vikings Lockup Childress:

Brad Childress signs an extension with the Vikings. My question is this…how much of this contract is owed to Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and Jared Allen? I mean Childress is a nice coach, but I have a hard time believing he’s elite. I think he’s done well in evaluating free agent/trade talent, but overall his draft track record is spotty (though Peterson and Percy Harvin do look nice). I mean his player evaluation does have to be questioned, since he legitimately believed that Tavaris Jackson is a NFL starting quarterback. Overall though the Vikings had to extend Childress, his team is 8-1 this season and is poised for a deep playoff run.

Dolphins Go For It On 4th and 3:

No this doesn’t vindicate Bill Belichick for his bonehead call last Sunday night! A few major differences between these situations, the Dolphins were on the Carolina 28, NOT THEIR OWN 28 yard line. The Dolphins also left only 39 seconds on the clock for the Panthers with no timeouts remaining, not two minutes and one timeout like the Patriots gave the Colts. And while the Dolphins could have tried a long 45 yard field goal to seal the game, if they had missed the kick they would have given Carolina the ball on the 35. I think Tony Sparano made the right call there, even though the Panthers did eventually get the ball in ‘hail mary’ range.

Lincecum Wins 2nd Cy Young Award:

Congrats to Tim Lincecum, unfortunate news for the San Francisco Giants since they will now have to sell the Golden Gate Bridge to afford to retain him. Lincecum enters this offseason as a Super-Two player, meaning that since he has played over two and a half years in the majors he is now eligible for arbitration, his first of four arbitration years. Usually when a player hits arbitration their salary jumps from league minimum ($400-450K) to somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.5-$4.0 million for solid players. Good players might be in the $5 million range. Now exceptional players have been known to get larger amounts, ex. Ryan Howard won his Super-two case for $10 million (and that was two years ago). Lincecum now has won the Cy Young Award in each of his two full seasons, compiling a career record of 40-17 with a 2.90 ERA, and that’s with a shaky defense and a pretty bad offense behind him (offense doesn’t help the ERA, but if he was pitching for the Phillies, Yankees or Red Sox he’d have 20+ wins a year). Looking deeper into the numbers, Lincecum has lead the league in strikeouts, and strikeouts per 9 innings pitched each of the last two seasons. He led the league in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in 2008, and was just barely beaten out by Zack Greinke this season. Lincecum is flat out dominate and now the Giants will have to open up their check book to keep him in town long term. What will it cost? Well the Phillies are going to end up paying Howard $64 million over his 4 arb. years (they signed a guaranteed contract last season), so I think that is at least the starting point. I say its going to cost at least $70 million to lock up Lincecum over the same time frame. As good as Howard is, the Giants would never trade Lincecum straight up for him. He’s a great power hitter, with just good on base skills at a prime power position. Howard is only average defensively, at the least important defensive position on the diamond. Lincecum by comparison is an elite pitcher who has dominated the league every fifth day for over two years now. If the Giants want to go to arbitration each year (and they will lose) they will probably pay out nearly $80 million plus if Lincecum doesn’t get injured, they have to sign an extension in my eyes. That $70 million sounds like a huge figure (and it is), but it ends up being a $17.5 million average, aka Barry Zito money (boy does that hurt).