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MLB 2011 Preview/Predictions

March 1, 2011 in Uncategorized by Kyle Howard

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak contributing writer Kyle Howard:

Just about a month away from the offical start of the MLB 2011 season. Many offseason publicity and free agency moves make this year in the MLB very interesting. Crawford to the Red Sox, Cliff Lee back to the Phillies, Werth to the Nationals, and Rafeal Soriano are only some of the new faces, in new places from this years offseason transactions. Here is my run through on my projections for this year:

AL East:

1) Red Sox; It kills me to put the Soxs as my division winners being a diehard Yankees fan but the Red Sox really beefed up their line up with the acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Their line up is as good as any in baseball and their pitching staff when healthy is top 5 in the league. Look for the Sox to make it back to October with either a division title or a wild card spot.

2) Yankees; Many Yankee fans look at this offseason as a failure. Not being able to convince Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke to come to New York was a tough pill to swallow. Their line up is still as lethal as any in the game and with the acquisition of Rafeal Soriano to help set up Rivera in the 9th really helped the needs of the bullpen. The starting pitching is going to be the real question mark throughout the season. If Burnett can turn his season around, Nova can turn into an every 5 day starter and the Mark Prior project can make strides, the Yankees will be pushing for yet another division title. Look for them to contend with the Sox until the last month of the season and either walking away with a wild card spot or best case scenario a division title.

3) Orioles; The Orioles are my surprise team of the league this year. They have done a great job of loading up on young talent and I feel that 2011 is the year they start making some noise. With Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters being the focal points of this team, the pitching talent needs to step up and you may be looking at a very dangerous team in the next few years. Look for the Orioles to have an above average year and finishing 3rd in the AL East.

4) Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay is in a transitioning period. They lost Crawford, Garza, and Soriano to free agentcy/trades and that leaves some big holes to fill for some young talented players in their farm system. With the acquistion of Manny and Damon, the Rays bring in some experience to their club with a more risk/reward mentality. The Rays staff is still a dangerous one lead by David Price and Evan Longoria will only improve and maybe a darkhorse candidate for MVP this year. Give the Rays some time to develop and they will be back in the postseason within the next couple of weeks.

5) Toronto; With still lingering questions on what Toronto’s next move is going to be, look for them to have a down year this year. Jose Bautista coming off a 54 home run year campaign and getting an extention I could see having a downer year. With some young potential pitching talent, look for the Blue Jays to use those as trade bait especially strikeout specialist Brandon Morrow.

AL Central:

1) Twins; It is difficult for me to pick a winner in this division being as the parity is so well distributed, so I will take experience and choose the Twinkees as the division winner. With Morneau coming back and the ability to resign Pavano, who is an innings machine, the Twins are poised to be the front runners of this jam packed division. If Nathan comes back healthy from his season ending surgury last year look for the Twins to be the winners of this division.

2) White Sox; Last year was a disappointment for the White Sox. With much publicity hovering over Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox struggled for most of the season. With the key offseason acquistion of Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko this team will have quite a powerful 4 and 5 spots in their line up. Also, Buerhle leading the staff followed by Floyd and Danks, look for this team to contend with the Twins for the division title and the loser will be in the wild card hunt.

3) Tigers; The Tigers 2011 season is on the shoulders of how healthy/sober Miguel Cabrera can be. The man has as much talent as their is in the MLB but, off field troubles have put the Tigers in a spin. Offseason acquistion Victor Martinez adds some power to a line up that was in desperate need for help around Cabrera.  Verlander leads this young staff, and when he is on is one of the most powerful pitchers in the league. A sophmore slump from promising young star Rick Porcello was a key difference maker in the Tigers 2010 season. If Porcello can get over his 2nd year struggles, look for the Tigers to contend for a majority of the season, but I feel the off the field publicity and inexperience in pitching will lead them to a 3rd place finish.

4) Royals; Its been a bad decade for the Royals but, this year,  I can see them making some strides to becoming a better squad. Alex Gordon needs to become the player we all thought he would become when he was drafted 4th overall in 2005. Luke Hochevar splashed onto the scene last year with a decent season and showing signs he could become a decent starter at the Major league level. The Royals still have a long way to go but, if their draft picks start stepping up the next 5 years could look promising for this squad.

5) Indians; The Indians are in the rebuilding stage as an organization. With many young prospects gained from the Cliff Lee trade and Victor Martinez trade, look for this team to show a lot of new faces this year. Shin soo Choo is a rising star in the outfield showing signs of power and batting average and a good piece to build around. This will be a struggling year for the Indians and will stay that way unless they make some noise at the trade deadline.

AL West:

1) Angels; Coming off a very disappointing season last year look for the Angels to make it back to the postseason this year. With a star studed staff lead by Jared Weaver, Scott Kazmir, and Ervin Santana look for the pitching to help carry this team into October. Kendry Morales maybe the biggest difference maker on this team this season. If he comes back as healthy as he was before his ACL accident, look for him to be another darkhorse MVP candidate.

2) Texas; Losing Cliff Lee to free agency crippled this teams potential for years to come. Coming off of the organizations first World Series experience the sky was the limit for this team. Led by MVP Josh Hamilton and power slugging OF Nelson Cruz, this team will go as far as these 2 stars can stay healthy. With questions surrounding the starting staff, look for the Rangers to pick up an arm at the trade deadline in hopes of making another push into October.

3) Athletics; The Athletics have one of the best young pitching staffs in baseball and they live and die on how well these young guns can do. Grant Balfour, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill,  Brett Anderson, and Andrew Bailey are the cornerstones of this young franchise. Dont be surprised if they A’s make a push at the deadline by moving one of these players for a bat in an often weak line up with an aging Eric Chavez. Look for the Athletics to continue rebuilding and continue improvement for years to come.

4) Mariners; The Mariners need power and they need it fast. The Mariners were last in almost every statistical batting category last year and they need to add some power to that line up. With much promise in former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley from UNC, it wont be a surprise to see him starting by mid season. Felix Hernandez is just a decent offensive team away from being arguably the best pitcher and baseball and look for him to continue his dominence in 2011.

NL East:

1) Phillies; Many analyst have it already penciled in that the Phillies will be holding up another World Series Title come October in 2011. With possibly the best 4 starters ever to be assembled on a single team, look for them to dominate most of the teams in the NL. Additions such as Cliff Lee only make this team even stronger and a star studded line up to back him up it will be quite a challenge to take this team in a 7 game series. With Werth gone that opens up the spot for top prospect Dominic Brown to take the rains of right field. The Phillies will walk away with this division and by July be focusing on the Playoffs.

2) Braves; The Braves suprised many of us last year and this year are a team not to mess with. With Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe leading the staff and the emergence of Jason Heyward becoming a star in the MLB, and the acquisition of Dan Uggla,  look for the Braves to win a wild card and being on an upset alert come playoff time.

3) Marlins; The Marlins have been trying to develop young talent for most of the past couple of years in hopes of turning into a legit playoff squad. Lead by MVP candidate Hanley Rameriz and pitching stud Josh Johnson, the Marlins are looking for an additional bat and arm to help make a charge at a competitive East division.

4) Mets; I really do not know where to start with Los Mets. They have as much talent as a team would need to make an apperance in the postseason but, for some reason they never seem to all click at the same time. Look for this years Mets team to be centered around David Wright and a healthy Jose Reyes. Pitching is very suspect due to Johan having elbow surgery. Look for the Mets to try and compete but come up short in the East race.

5) Nationals; Being from Northern Virginia and having been to multiple Nats games its difficult for me to put them in this position. Strasburg is what brought this team alive and made them play with passion and pride but, with Tommy John Surgery dont look for Strasburg to be throwing until September, if they even decide to let him throw at all. With key acquistion of Jayson Werth, the Nats will be along the same lines of production as last year. The future looks bright in Washington and if Strasburg can come back as good as he left, and Harper doesn’t disappoint down in the minors, this team will be fun to watch in the coming years.

NL Central:

1) Cubs; I know its as shocking to you as it is to me that the Cubs are going to finish first in the division. The Cubs made a key move in acquiring Garza this winter, and if their young talent continues to produce look for them to be a sneaky good team come playoff time. This pick is definitely a stretch and my upset of the year.

2) Reds; The surprise team of the year in 2010, the Reds will be looking to capitalize on thier run last year and continue it into this year. Joey Votto is the leader of this squad and looks to duplicate is MVP year last year and transition it to this year. Pitching was a strong point for the Reds last year but, I feel that they will struggle this year with to much inconsistentcy. Look for the Reds to make it back to the post season and be a contender as a wild card.

3) Cardinals; The Cardinals would be first in the Central if it werent for the staggering news on Adam Wainwright out for the season. The loss of Wainwright equals trouble for this club. With the huge injury to the staff and an unhappy Albert Pujols, look for this club to have a difficult time with all the distractions and end up chasing a wild card spot.

4) Brewers; The Brewers have 2 young stars in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, arguably 1 of the best tandems in the league. With the line up set up to produce runs the Brewers made a huge trade in aquiring Zack Greinke to help with the staff. Look for the Brewers to improve and possibly take the Cardinals spot and fighting for a spot in the post season.

5) Astros; It is easy to say that the Astros are in a rebuilding year. Losing Roy Oswalt to a trade pretty much sums it up. With young talent in the minors and an aging outfield minus Hunter Pence, look for the Astros to struggle most the year and look to being sellers at the deadline

6) Pirates; This team is the only team that manages to get great prospects and trade them away. The Pirates have not had a well established club since the 80′s and I don’t see that happening this year. Their one true star Andrew McCutchen is a lead-off hitter and you can’t build a team around that. Zack Duke will finish with a sub .500 win record and they will use many new arms from their farm system this year. Sorry so called “City of Champions” but you may want to concentrate on NFL happening in the fall and Crosby recovering over watching this squad this year.

NL West:

1) Giants; The defending World Series Champions have to be the favorites to come out of this jam packed West division. Offseason loss of World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria, leaves a big hole at shortstop and Juan Uribe’s departure to division rival LA leaves a big spot open at the utility role. With the young guns on the pitching staff such as Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner leading the way and crazy Wilson closing out games, look for this team to make it back to the Postseason in a coinflip of a division.

2) Rockies; the Rockies struggled last year despite the fact they are known as being a second half team only 2 years removed from their prolific playoff run. With flame thrower Ubaldo Jimenez leading the staff and Troy Tulowitzki the captain of the team. Look for the Rockies to make some noise and be a strong challenger for being the wild card team come October.

3) Padres; the Padres had a banner of a year last season coming down to the wire last season with the Giants going into the last game of the season. The Padres have an underrated pitching staff lead by rising star Mat Latos, with verterans such as Jon Garland to help mentor the fire baller. Free Agency hit the Padres hard by losing their superstar first basemen Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. I can see the Padres relying on their arms to keep them in the race but with no one significant to replace Gonzalez, runs are going to be hard to come by for this club.

4) Diamondbacks; This team is tricky to pick. One day their hot the next day their not. After giving up Dan Haren to the Angels in return for some prospects, the diamondbacks are clearly a process in the making. Relying heavily on star outfielder Justin Upton is going to be too much for this team to overcome.

Playoff Predition:

AL                                           NL                                         World Series

Red Sox                              Giants                               Phillies vs. Red Sox

Yankees                            Cubs                                         Phillies win 4-2

Angels                               Phillies

Twins                                 Rockies

Thursday’s Morning Links:

January 20, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Twins Finally Land Pavano: While it has been rumored all offseason that the Minnesota Twins wanted to resign Carl Pavano, it began to seem less and less likely as the weeks dragged on. While some teams were filling their holes in their rotation with other options, there are still a number of teams that could have used Pavano at the top or middle of their rotation. The Twins though made the most sense, since they didn’t have to give up a compensation pick for him, and had yet to fill his spot in the rotation. A two year $16.5 million deal is pretty reasonable for Pavano, and below what a number of starters were getting on the open market. With resigning Jim Thome and Pavano the last two weeks, the Twins have ensured themselves a team capable of getting to the postseason (though both the Tigers and White Sox improved). If they do make it they now have to find a way to advance past the 1st round.

Brady To Have Surgery on His Foot: Although Tom Brady had played a good part of the season on a fractured foot, it was generally thought that the injury was minor and could heal on its own. Brady himself said on Monday that he didn’t think he would need any offseason surgeries. That apparently changed, as he will now be undergoing a foot surgery to repair the injury. Whether or not it was planned the entire time, or if Brady re-aggravated the injury in the Jets game (might be time to invest in the offensive line) is unclear at this time. The operation doesn’t sound serious, though Brady will probably not be a 100% for mini-camps (if there are mini-camps). He should be back in good time for training camp and the start of next season.

American League Teams’ Christmas/Winter Meetings Wish List

December 3, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With baseball’s Winter Meetings starting next week and X-mas just around the corner, I thought it was a good time to look at what is on every team’s wish list this December. If a team is expected to make any significant signings or trades I’ll feature them. But if they are likely sitting on the sidelines this winter, then they only have three wishes: good health, development by their prospects, and bargain shopping in 2011 before the season starts.

First up American League:

AL East:

New York Yankees:

Cliff Lee: There is little surprise on what tops their wish list, as landing an ace starting pitcher is their top priority.Lee is really the only guy available who fits the bill. New York needs to hope their money and winning reputation sway Lee away from his other suitors.

Derek Jeter: The Yankees negotiations with their ‘Captain’ haven’t been too pretty and have in fact served as more of a distraction than anything else. The Yankees need Jeter to come to his senses quickly and sign his deal, before it looks any worse than it already is.

A.J. Burnett: New York invested big money into Burnett two years ago and already they are regretting their decision. Burnett needs to figure out his issues quick, as he can’t afford to start off the season badly. Not only will it hurt the Yankees playoff hopes, but a bad start will doom him in New York, meaning the Yankees may have to eat his contract just to appease the fans.

Boston Red Sox:

Crawford or Werth: Boston is in hot pursuit of the top two free agent outfielders and they need to land one if the Yankees make a big move (i.e. signing Lee). Either OF will fit in well in Boston and continue to make that lineup one of the best in the league.

Gonzalez or Fielder: While it is a bit quite of late, I still think the Red Sox will end up with either Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder from the trade market this offseason. Both are impending free agents and likely to be dealt by their current team. Gonzalez is a better fit for Boston given his defense, and higher likelihood of negotiating a more team friendly extension. If Boston lands one of them, plus one of the top outfielders, they should pass the Yankees for the best lineup in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Trade Jason Bartlett: This could happen in the next few days, as Tampa does not want to pay Bartlett’s arbitration salary this coming season. While Bartlett won’t bring back a major haul, they should expect to get back a solid middle reliever, who is young and cost controlled.

Rebuild Their Bullpen: The Rays have a number of free agent defections from their bullpen and given their budget, they will likely have to build from within or through trades. In addition to the likelihood of  a Bartlett for middle reliever swap, I’d look for Tampa to make a bigger deal with their considerable prospect depth to add a back of the bullpen arm.

Add a Quality Bat: With holes at 1B, LF (could be filled by rookie Desmond Jennings) and DH, the Rays could use at least one bat to keep them on the cusp of contention. Since the free agent market is likely too expensive, the Rays will likely look for a bat on the trade market. I would count them out of the Gonzalez/Fielder markets given their salary price tags, and what it would cost in terms of prospects. Names like Billy Butler, Josh Willingham, Luke Scott could all be on their radar this offseason.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Make a Splash: The Blue Jays might be rebuilding, but this team was competitive without any of their top prospects making a significant impact. I think Toronto will make a bold move such as trading for Greinke or Justin Upton (Billy Butler could be on their wish list as well). Trading for a star caliber player could really make this team a threat in the East, though I don’t think they should give up too much in the way of young talent.

Find a First Baseman: While Adam Lind is a distinct internal possibility, I would expect the Jays to find a new first baseman for next season. Trading for Billy Butler should be high on their list, but if they decide to move some of their young talent for a different star, the Blue Jays still have options on the free agent market (though they are dwindling fast). Adam LaRoche or Derek Lee would be good fits in Toronto, as could Carlos Pena if they expect a bounce back year.

Add a 3B/2B: Right now the Jays have a hole at 3B that they could fill by moving 2B Aaron Hill there, but that would only create an issue up the middle. The free agent market won’t yield any great 3B (unless they buck up to sign Beltre), so a trade could be an option. They could also look to bring back Orlando Hudson to fill 2B and move Hill over. Hudson wouldn’t be a long term fix, but he’d be a solid short term addition.

Add some relievers: The Jays are losing a couple quality relievers in the free agent market and will either need to add some arms via trade or from the market. Given their young staff, and the likely ascension of some young prospects, they could use a good bullpen to help protect their young arms.

Baltimore Orioles:

Add a 1B/DH bat: The O’s have struck out with two of their top free agent options, Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn so far this offseason and they are likely to miss out on another one, as Paul Konerko is likely to resign with the White Sox. The 1B/DH market is drying up fast with Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena, Derek Lee and Lance Berkman the only real options left. The O’s need to land one of them, but at this point they need to make sure they aren’t overpaying, since none of them are true stars. Baltimore should look to focus their money on their other needs such as 3B.

Go Hard After Adrian Beltre: At this point the O’s are going to have to overpay to land a star, and Beltre is probably the best chance the O’s have at landing one. Now they aren’t alone in the market and it will cost quite a bit, but Beltre could be worth it. He is a very good defender at 3B, and at 32 should be productive for another couple of years. It still could be a pipe dream, but Baltimore needs to be aggressive.

Add Some Relief Pitching: The Orioles have a promising young staff, but their bullpen was a mess last year. They need to add a couple free agent arms to turn that into a strength and help protect their rotation.

Add a Shortstop: It is not a good year to be needing a shortstop, but the Orioles need to find someway to get better production out of that position. Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy head their list, but other options could become available. Who ever they find, Baltimore needs to ensure they offer some production from that area.

AL Central:

Chicago White Sox:

Bring Back Konerko: With the addition of Adam Dunn, the White Sox finally have the hitter who can help protect Paul Konerko in the middle of the lineup. Now they just need to ensure Konerko is in that lineup. I fully expect a deal to get done in the next couple of days, which will fully cover their DH/1B positions.

Find a LF: I know a lot of people like Juan Pierre for his speed and defense, but he is a bit of a liability in LF. He just doesn’t get on base enough or have any power to speak of to justify a corner outfield spot. While his defense was exceptional in LF, you have to get better than a .312 wOBA from your LF if you want to be a contender. There aren’t any real free agent options available, but don’t be shocked if the White Sox target someone like Josh Willingham or Luke Scott. Alex Gordon could also be an option if they go for a more unproven player.

Add Relief Pitching: In their pursuit for adding Dunn and Konerko, the White Sox made a tough choice by releasing long time closer Bobby Jenks to save some money. While fiscally it makes some sense, it leaves that bullpen a little short right now. A couple relievers should be acquired by trade or through free agency to help offset the loss.

Kansas City Royals:

Make the Best Deal(s) Possible: The Royals are in an enviable position with the best farm system in baseball, and a number of quality trade-able pieces. The Royals have the best SP (Greinke), Closer (Joakim Soria) and one of the top bats (Butler) on the trade market. In addition to their big names, the Royals have Alex Gordon and Robinson Tejada, who are both good 2nd tier trade targets. Now I wouldn’t expect to see all 5 dealt before the start of the season, but at least 2 should be moved by then, and all of them could be gone by the start of 2012. The Royals need to make the best trades possible and should target middle infield help, outfielders (in particular center fielders), frontline starting pitching, and maybe a 3B. Kansas City can basically name their own price.

Detroit Tigers:

The Tigers have already done most of their heavy lifting this offseason, with Victor Martinez their top prize. I don’t think they are done just yet, but they might not make any more major moves. If they do here is what they might target:

OF help: The Tigers are rumored to still be in the Werth and Crawford sweepstakes, but I’m not too sure they can swing a deal. My guess is they will look to the trade market for a quality OF bat (usual suspects, Willingham, Scott etc.) to fill their need.

Relief Pitching: They have already added Benoit, but my guess is they add another solid arm before the start of the season. I don’t see them adding a starter, but I think their staff could use some help.

Minnesota Twins:

The Twins aren’t supposed to be too active this offseason beyond resigning Jim Thome and agreeing to a deal with the Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who can play either SS or 2B. The Twins could be trading J.J. Hardy, though that is far from being set in stone. The one thing the Twins could be looking at is making a big trade:

Make a Splash: In back-to-back years the Twins have gotten swept out of the Playoffs by the New York Yankees, so they need to find a way to get better if they want to advance further in 2011. The Twins have a quality system, so they do have the pieces to swing a major deal or two. Given their depth across the board, they could target any number of positions. Starting pitching is a top priority, but I don’t see them getting in the Greinke sweepstakes (more because I really don’t see the Royals trading him in the division unless the Twins vastly overpay).

Cleveland Indians:

Cleveland falls into the category of teams who are really not expected to do anything significant this offseason, and they will be bargain shopping this year.

AL West:

Texas Rangers:

Sign Cliff Lee: The Rangers are the Yankees toughest competition in the Lee Sweepstakes and if the money is close enough he could prefer to stay in Texas. If the Rangers land Lee, then they won’t have much additional money to spend, but they should be pretty well set for another World Series run.

Trade for Zack Greinke: If the Rangers fail to land Lee, they should be one of the favorites to land Greinke. It will cost quite a bit in prospects, but his team friendly contract will allow the Rangers to add another free agent or two.

Add A DH: Vlad is gone, so it is time for Texas to find another decent designated hitter to insert into their lineup. The usual 1B suspects could be options, though most likely could find an actual 1B job. Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui could fit, but neither would have any impact in the field. The could go down the trade route for a Billy Butler (especially if they sign Lee) or a Luke Scott. Both are fairly cheap, while having the ability to help in the field as well.

Los Angeles Angels:

Carl Crawford: The Angels are expected to go all-in for Crawford and basically make him an offer he can’t refuse. Crawford would be a huge free agent signing for the Angels and it would drastically improve their chances for reclaiming the AL West. If they miss out on Crawford, they will go hard after Werth, but he seems to be not nearly as high on their wish list.

Adrian Beltre: Whether they get Crawford or not, Beltre figures to be high on the Angels wish list. They need more power in their lineup and 3B is an issue for them. He won’t come cheap and it is possible that he and Crawford would cost to much, but the Angels should be a serious suitor for him.

Add Bench and Relief Depth: The Angels have a good lineup and starting rotation, but they need to add better depth to ensure that injuries don’t sink their season like last year. I’d look for them to have a couple known players on the bench/bullpen, as they look to build a playoff contender.

Oakland A’s:

The A’s have already done some of their hard work this offseason by adding David DeJesus to their outfield, but they still have a ways to go. For the most part I’d expect them to fill their needs from within, but they could make at least one significant move.

Add a DH: The A’s seem poised to try power hitting 1B/DH prospect Chris Carter in the outfield (not too sure if that will work), and add a legitimate designated hitter this offseason. It is no shock that the A’s need to generate power, but it might make more sense to play Carter at DH and add an OF. Right now I don’t see that happening, so I’m guessing they end up signing one of the 1B/DH types on the market this year.

Outside of that 3B and RP could be an issue, but one that might not be fully addressed this offseason.

Seattle Mariners:

The Mariners are expected to sit quietly this offseason as they look to rebuild. One of two moderate signings may occur in January, but I think that is all you will see right now.

Check back later as I look at the NL’s X-Mas/Winter Meetings Wish List!


Spectacular Postseason Performances

October 8, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Willypops

Certainly the major sports news topic in recent days has been the no-hitter tossed by the Phillies Roy Halladay against the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of their National League Divisional Series matchup.  I’ve listened to quite a bit of debate on where Halladay’s feat ranks against previous individual postseason  performances.  Since I’m a “mature” sports fan, I always like to look at how things used to be.  Indeed, I’ve posted a few  blogs here on fanspeak under the heading “Nostalgiaspeak” (found under the “More” tab).  So I think it’s only fitting that I take a look at some other past outstanding performances in MLB postseason play.

I took a cursory look at the information on Baseball Reference.com, limiting my review from 1940 to the present.  Not that I go back that far – I was born in 1953.  And not that there is any other particular significance to 1940.  I just thought, what the heck, 70 years is a pretty good sampling.  I also limited my review to one-game pitching performances.  I realize there have been individual at-bats (World Series-ending homers by Bill Mazeroski in the 1960 and Joe Carter in 1993 and Bobby Thomson’s 1951 playoff game  ”shot heard round the world”) or great fielding plays (catches by Willie Mays and Ron Swoboda) that were truly spectacular.  Numerous players have put up amazing numbers, either hitting or pitching, throughout a particular postseason or series.  But I think that it’s the single game, dominating pitching performance of the nature of Halladay’s, that stands out above the rest.

Taking a look at Halladay’s no-hitter, it almost seemed effortless.  The only thing that kept him from throwing a perfect game was an 5th inning walk on a 3-2 count.  He almost always pitched ahead in the count and rarely even went to three balls in any count.  It didn’t seem like any extraordinary fielding plays were needed to preserve the no-hitter as is often the case.  In short, it was a brilliant performance.  What is truly amazing is the fact that this gem was thrown in his first-ever appearance in the postseason!

In the debate over whether Halladay’s no-hitter was the most spectacular individual postseason performance, the first comparison drawn is to Don Larsen’s perfect game for the Yankees against the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series.  Before Halladay’s game, it was the only no-hitter ever thrown in postseason play.  With the Series knotted at two games apiece, there was some question if Larsen would even be given the start in Game 5.  He had only lasted 1.2 innings in his previous Game 2 start.  But Manager Casey Stengel decided to go with Larsen and the rest, as they say, “is history”.

But no-hitters aside, there have been plenty of masterpieces thrown in the postseason.  There’s one game in particular that some people are suggesting was even more impressive than Larsen’s or Halladay’s.  That is Jack Morris’ performance for the Twins against the Braves in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series.  It was a 10-inning, complete game, 1-0 shutout.  While he did give up 7 hits, it is argued that to go out in the 7th and deciding game and pitch 10 innings of shutout ball, giving his team the opportunity to clinch the series in walk-off fashion in the bottom of the 10th, puts his performance right up there for consideration as the best postseason performance ever.

But going back a bit further in history, a compelling argument could be made for another 10 inning, complete game, 1-0 shutout.  It also occurred in the 1956 World Series, in Game 6, one day after Larsen’s perfect game.  Unheralded Clem Labine got the start for the Dodgers with his team now trailing the Yankees in the Series, three games to two.  Similar to Morris’ game, Labine scattered 7 hits and kept the Dodgers in the game.  What was really impressive was the fact that he had to out-duel Bob Turley of the Yankees, who himself pitched 9.2 innings of shutout ball until Jackie Robinson hit a single to drive in Junior Gilliam to give the Dodgers the win.  The win kept the Dodgers’ hopes alive, although the Yankees did prevail in Game 7.

When considering other memorable World Series games, near the top of the list has to be the one-hitter turned in by Jim Lonborg of the Red Sox against the Cardinals in Game 2 of the 1967 Series, a 5-0 shutout win for Lonborg .  He took a no-hitter into the 8th inning, giving up a double with two outs in that inning.  His only other blemish in that game was a 7th inning walk.  Of course the Cardinals went on to win the Series four games to three, keeping the “Curse of the Bambino” alive.

Speaking of World Series 1-hitters, there was the performance turned in by Claude Passeau (who?) of the Chicago Cubs in Game 3 of the 1945 Series.  He pitched a 3-0 shutout against the Tigers, giving up the only hit in the 2nd inning.  He also walked a batter in the 6th inning who was immediately erased on a double play so Passeau only faced 28 batters that day, one over the minimum.  The Tigers went on to win that Series and what is additionally noteworthy is that it is the last time that the Cubs appeared in the World Series.

Another pitcher who tossed a 1-hitter in a World Series game was Bill Bevens of the Yankees against the Brooklyn Dodgers.  He threw it in Game 4 of the 1947 Series.  But this wasn’t your ordinary 1-hitter type of game.  For starters, Bevens lost the game on the only hit he gave up, a two-out, two-run, walk-off double by Cookie Lavagetto.  Why was it a TWO-RUN walk-off double you say?  It turns out that Bevens gave up 10 walks that day!  The Dodgers were able to manufacture a run in 5th inning on two of those walks, a sacrifice bunt and a fielder’s choice.  Nonetheless, the Yankees took a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th.  It was the first time (and the only time other than Larsen’s game) that a pitcher took a no-hitter into the 9th inning in a World Series game.  Two walks by Bevens set the stage for Lavagetto’s game winning hit.   The Yankees did however go on to win that Series in 7 games.

Some other impressive World Series pitching performances, albeit not quite up to the challenge of those games discussed above, include 2-hit shutouts thrown by Warren Spahn of the Braves against the Yankees in Game 4 of the 1958 Series and Whitey Ford of the Yankees against the Reds in Game 1 of the 1961 Series.  Additionally there was the Game 1, 4-0 shutout of the Tigers turned in by Bob Gibson of the Cardinals in the 1968 series.  While he did give up 5 hits, he struck out 17 batters that day.  A truly dominant performance.

In addition to Halladay’s no-hitter, there have been some impressive non-World Series performances as well.  Chief among those would be the Braves’ Kevin Millwood 1-hitter against the Astros in Game 2 of the 1999 NLDS, and Bobby Jones’ 1-hitter for the Mets against the Giants in Game 4 of the 2000 NLDS, which clinched that Series for the Mets.  And who can forget the 1-hitter tossed by Roger Clemens of the Yankees against the Mariners in Game 4 of the 2000 ALCS in which he struck out 15 batters.  Some have argued that, taking all factors into consideration, that stands as the most dominating postseason pitching performance.  Not being a Clemens fan, I of course would discount that one since we really don’t know how much “help” he had that day??

So, which one deserves to be considered the most spectacular postseason performance?  In my mind, I think that the two no-hitters and the Morris and Labine 10-inning complete game shutouts are the top candidates.  Two games are in the more current time frame and two were from a different era.  Three of the games were World Series games and Halladay’s was the first game of the postseason.  It all depends on how you weigh the different factors applicable to each game.  To me, a World Series game carries greater weight than a non-Series game.  Vitally important too, is what that particular performance meant to the pitcher’s’ team at that given point in time.  And I think you have to give great weight to how the accomplishment relates to baseball’s established standards of excellence (ie. no-hitter vs. 7-hit shutout).

Which is the best?  While Labine’s 10-inning, 1-0 shutout win kept his team alive in the World Series it does not equal Morris’ similar shutout that gave the Twins the title.  And although in most any other scenario, a no-hitter trumps a 10-inning complete game shutout, I think the fact that Morris performed his feat under the pressure of pitching in the 7th game of the World Series makes his accomplishment just a little more impressive than Halladay’s postseason-opening no-hitter.  I know that Larsen’s accomplishment “only” gave his team a 3-2 lead in the Series, but I have to go with his performance as being the best of the bunch.  After all, what is better than perfection?

AL Playoff Previews

October 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Brian Murphy

This is my preview for the American League Divisional Series.  The AL playoffs kick off Wednesday starting with the Rangers @ Rays at 1:37 and then the Yankees @ Twins at 8:37.

Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

The Rangers travel to the Trop to take on the Rays, who had baseball’s best record in the regular season.  It will be interesting to see if the home-field advantage actually makes that big of a difference in this series considering Tropicana Field drew about 12,000 fans in a potential playoff-clinching game.  This is the playoffs though and the fans were rowdy two years ago in the postseason so I’d be shocked to see them not show up in large numbers.  Anyway, let’s analyze the two teams:

Pitching: The first game will be the best pitching-duel of the series as David Price takes on Cliff Lee.  Price was 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season.  He pitched one time against Texas this year going 6 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, and striking out 8 in a 6-4 win.  I will look to see the same type of outing from Price Wednesday against one of the most productive batting lineups in the AL.  Cliff Lee is the one pitcher on the Rangers that I can see winning a game in this series.  What he did in the postseason last year was just ridiculous and if he can repeat that, the Rangers can maybe scrap up a couple of wins.  Lee was 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this year.  However, Lee has had a rough time pitching against the Rays this year.  He lost all 3 games he pitched to the Rays going 26.2 innings, giving up 12 earned runs, and 24 hits.  EDGE: Price

Game 2: C.J. Wilson (TEX) vs. James Shields (TB).  I give the edge to Shields here because he will be pitching at home and had relatively good success against Texas this year going 1-1 in 14 innings and only giving up 4 earned runs.  Wilson actually won in his only start against Tampa thanks to great run support, going 5 innings and giving up 3 earned runs.

Game 3: Matt Garza (TB) vs. Colby Lewis (TEX).  Yet again, I feel like Garza has what it takes to win this battle as he went 2-0 against Texas this season including a shutout in 7 innings in his last outing.  Lewis did not pitch against the Rays this season.

Game 4: Wade Davis (TB) vs. Tommy Hunter (TEX).  I’ll give the edge to Hunter in the battle of the #4 pitchers.  Hunter had a CG win early in the season against the Rays giving up only 1 ER.

Hitting: There are some All-Star caliber sluggers on both these teams with the Rangers featuring Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Guerrero and the Rays featuring Crawford, Upton, Pena, and Longoria.  The Rangers were 1st in the bigs in batting avg (.276) and 5th in runs (787), whereas the Rays were a lowly 27th in batting avg (.247) yet 3rd in runs (802).  The Rays have what it takes to put up some high numbers but the Rangers seem more consistent.  EDGE: Rangers

Prediction: I think the Rays will be too much for the Rangers in this series.  They have better pitching and they are the Champs of the best league in baseball, the AL East.  It would be interesting if the Rangers can squeak out a win in Tampa in the first two games and then head to Arlington for two more.  RAYS IN 4

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)

The World-Series Champs look to defend their 27th championship as they head to Minnesota for the ALDS.  The Yankees have beaten the Twins three times in a row since 2003 in the ALDS, however this is the first time Minnesota gets home field advantage.  It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays a factor in the stadium’s first playoff series in history.

Pitching: Game 1: One of baseball’s most automatic, consistent pitchers C.C. Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) will be dueling against Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).  Liriano has shown signs of dominance in his career and had two decent outtings against the Yankees earlier this season going 0-1 in two starts and giving up 5 runs in 13 innings.  C.C. did not pitch against the Twins this season but has been one of baseball’s best and the Yankees’ ace. EDGE: SABATHIA

Game 2 and 3: The Yankees have not announced who their probables are for Games 2 and 3, but I assume Pettitte will go Game 2 if he is healthy and ready to go and that will leave either Nova or Hughes to pitch Game 3.  The Twins are pitching former Yankee-bust Carl Pavano in Game 2 and former relief pitcher Brian Duensing in Game 3.  With Pettitte’s unbelievable October and postseason track record, I see him having the edge in the game he pitches.  If Duensing goes up against the rookie Nova I would give the edge to Duensing.  Hughes could have a great game if he starts and throws his best.

Game 4: Nick Blackburn (MIN) vs. A.J. Burnett (NYY).  Blackburn is an impressive 2-0 in 2 starts against the Yankees, giving up 5 runs in 14 innings.  Burnett is just a mystery; will he pitch dominant like he did when signed by the Yankees or will he be the league leader in wild pitches and throw countless walks like he has shown this year?  Burnett is 1-0 against the Twins this year in 2 starts, giving up 2 earned runs in 11.2 innings, but I have just not been impressed with his consistency and lack of control.

Hitting: The Bronx Bombers sport another powerful lineup from top-to-bottom this postseason.  When fully healthy, they have the most dangerous lineup in the league with such All-Star caliber as Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Posada.  It will be interesting to see if the clutch A-Rod of last postseason continues and if Teixeira can step up.  Don’t count out the Twins though as they were 2nd in batting avg (.274) and 6th in runs (772) this season with such sluggers as Mauer, Cuddyer, Thome, and Young.  The Twins can definitely put up some runs but it is hard to find a better lineup on better than the Yankees — the only question is can they prove it on the field? EDGE: YANKEES

Predicition: This will be a great back-and-forth, nail-bitting series that I think will be decided in 5 games.  Home-field advantage should play a key role and it will be interesting to see what the Yankees do with their starting pitcher situation after Sabathia.  Overall, I think the Yankees will continue their postseason success against the Twins and strive for their 28th World Series title. YANKEES IN 5

Morning Links:

September 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Twins Morneau Hopes To Return This Season: While the Twins are still in first place with 20 games to go in their brand new park, it has been a rough year for their slugger Justin Morneau. He has missed the past two months due to concussion symptoms, after getting off to a torrid start this season. While the Twins have survived the loss, they would likely be in a few more games up on the White Sox had Morneau not missed so much time. It appears that Morneau may be returning to Target Field in the coming weeks, just in time to fend off a late push by the White Sox and for the start of the Playoffs. If the Twins want to go far this postseason they will need Morneau, back healthy in the middle of their lineup.

Bills Go With Spiller Atop Their Depth Chart: Now this move was pretty much expected since the Bills passed on much needed quarterbacks and offensive linemen to draft Spiller 9th overall in April’s draft, but was affirmed yesterday. Buffalo pretty much had to show Spiller as their number 1 tailback, after what they passed on to get him. Now there is no doubt that Spiller is a weapon, but it is a bit surprising that he is listed as their starter considering what Fred Jackson did last season. Jackson in split time ran for over 1,000 yards and added an additional 370 receiving yards, as well as over 1,100 return yards. Now Spiller will take some of those roles, but the Bills shouldn’t forget about Jackson. He proved himself to be a good runner last year, and he is worthy of 15-20 carries a game as well. In fairness to Spiller and the coaching staff, Jackson was banged up this preseason and isn’t 100% yet, but it will be interesting to see how they use him when he is.

Bulldogs Green to Miss Three More Games: Georgia’s top flight receiver A.J. Green missed last Saturday’s game due to NCAA rule violations, now the Bulldogs will be without him for another 3 weeks. The ban is a result of Green selling his bowl jersey to an ‘agent’ for $1,000. Green was also under further investigation for additional improper contact with agents, but that apparently is behind him. The loss of Green didn’t really affect Georgia week 1 against Louisiana-Lafayette, but could have major implications the rest of the way. Over the next three weeks Georgia faces (24) South Carolina, (14) Arkansas, and Mississippi State (two of which are on the road). Georgia could easily have 2 losses by the time Green comes back and that is before they face the toughest part of their schedule.

The suspension could also affect Green individually as well since his draft status could take a significant hit. While Green will play the majority of the year, and the bowl game (if Georgia qualifies) he is missing a good chunk of time against quality opponents. While he is projected to be the top receiver off the board and a potential top 5 pick by most draft pundits (if he declares early), he could lose ground to Julio Jones, Micheal Floyd and Jonathan Baldwin with this missed time. All three offer similar package’s to Green and have actually put up better numbers. Green needed a huge year to maintain that top of the draft status, and he could very well slide into the middle or even late into the first round. Some might say that it won’t affect him that much, but Dez Bryant this past season was suspended by the NCAA and fell to the end of the 1st round. And Bryant really didn’t have any competition at receiver. When Green comes back he has to be firing on all cylinders if he is to regain his spot atop the wide receivers draft board.

Baseball Playoff Hunt:

August 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

AL East: It is still a three horse race in the AL East, despite the Red Sox being 7 games out of first (in any other division they would be within a game and a half). Boston has dealt with a rash of injuries, and while they have stayed competitive, I find it hard to believe they can outlast the Yankees and Rays for the top spot (or the wild card). I wouldn’t write them off just yet, but it looks as though Boston will be staying at home this October. The Yankees and Rays are both likely to be in the playoffs, and it will just end up being a matter of who wins the division and who gets the Wild Card spot. New York still has some pitching woes, but with that offense I think they hold on to the division lead. Tampa is an impressive young team, but they are built too much on defense, speed and pitching (which is great). Their inability to add any bats at the trade deadline really make me question their chances to go far this postseason.

AL Central: The Central has quickly become a two man race as the Tigers have fallen 9 games out of first place and don’t look like they can recover. The White Sox hold a slim lead in the division, but they desperately need to find some bats to supplement their quality pitching staff. I don’t know if Chicago has enough to hold off the Twins in the race for the Central. Minnesota is a more well rounded team, and could get a great September boost when Justin Morneau rejoins the team. While it is possible the 2nd place team could be in contention for the Wild Card, I really believe it is coming out of the East this year. I like the Twins to squeak this division out during the last week of the season.

AL West: This division race is pretty much officially over. If the Rangers don’t win this division it would be a major upset. The Angels are absolutely reeling right now and have fallen to 3rd place in the division (and under .500). The A’s could make a run, but they are really built for next year and the future. I would not be shocked if they close the gap, but I don’t see anyone overcoming the Rangers and their incredible offense.

NL East: Since the trade deadline this has become firmly a two team battle, as both the Mets and Marlins have fallen out of the race. The Phillies are in second place, but should get some key players back from injuries down the stretch, that should push them over the top. The Braves desperately want to win in Bobby Cox’s swan song, but will need to fend off a strong Phillies team. Atlanta might need to make a waiver wire deal to ensure their spot atop the East. Unlike in the American League, the Wild Card race is fairly wide open, so whomever loses the East could still be in the playoffs.

NL Central: The Central like the East is down to two teams, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds hold the division and are the better all-around team, but the Cardinals have the better star power plus the experience making them a safer bet down the stretch. Both teams could be looking for some outside help, but the Reds should be able to hold on to the division. They have a better farm system and will get some much needed extra arms to help close out the season. St. Louis isn’t fully out of it, but I don’t know if they have the offense to overcome the Reds (and right now their pitching staff isn’t too hot either).

NL West: The West is still fairly wide open as I think 4 teams still have a shot at the division. The Dodgers and Rockies still have a ways to go, but I wouldn’t count them out for late season pushes. The Dodgers were the most active team at the deadline bringing in 4 veteran upgrades. While the team hasn’t responded yet with too many wins, that influx of talent could help them in the closing weeks. The Rockies didn’t add any pieces at the deadline, but they are a young team that keeps getting better each week. Unless the Padres or Giants really run away with this division, I wouldn’t count out the Rockies if they are within 5 games in final two weeks. As for the Padres or Giants I got to go with San Francisco. They have better starters, in addition to a better lineup (though not by much). The Padres did add some bats at the deadline though neither has yet to significantly contribute. Both teams could still look at some waiver wire pickups, but I still think the Giants will end up on top.

Mauer Cashes In

March 22, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Minnesota Twins yesterday signed their All-star catcher Joe Mauer to an 8-year $184 million contract. It is by far the largest contract ever awarded in the Twins history and the largest ever given to a catcher. And in both cases, it was worth every single penny.

Mauer isn’t traditionally thought of as an elite player, but I don’t see how anyone can not have him among the top 5 players (really top 2) in the league. He is a superb defensive catcher, who just happens to be the best pure hitter in the American League. Going into last season the only “knock” on Mauer was the fact that he wasn’t a ‘power hitter’, since he had only broken double digit home runs once in his career. Well Mauer responded by hitting 28 long balls last season, during a season where he posted a .365/.444/.587 line. And he did all of that the majority of the time from behind the plate. He had between .50 and .60 points higher batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage higher than the next catcher, putting him in a category by himself. What’s most impressive about his numbers, particularly his home run total, is that Mauer didn’t play a game until May 1st last season due to injury.

Now usually when you see a jump in power numbers like Mauer’s you think that it is probably a fluke, but I would guess Mauer keeps churning out 25+ home run seasons and a slugging percentage over .500 for the next 5+ seasons. And in all honesty it’s quite possible that his numbers go up even more. Traditionally a player reaches his prime in his late 20′s early 30′s and will put up his best numbers during that 5-7 year span. Mauer just so happens to be turning 27 as this season begins, meaning his numbers aren’t likely a fluke. He was always projected to hit with power, and now we are finally seeing that come to fruition.

Now as big as that $184 million deal looks, let’s be honest, Mauer left money on the table. He would have been a free agent after this season, and barring some major injury would have been handed a blank check on the open market. Not only would the Yankees and Red Sox been falling over themselves to ink Mauer, but just about every team would have entered the bidding. Mauer is a once in a lifetime type talent, and is well on his way to going down as the greatest catcher in baseball history. Despite all the big name free agents to switch uniforms over the seasons, Mauer would be the best player to hit the market since Alex Rodriguez did a decade ago. He is an elite offensive and defensive player at one of the most premium positions on the diamond. I think just about every team would have been looking for someway, somehow to sign him. Probably the only teams who wouldn’t have been in the mix are the Orioles and Braves since they both have young elite catchers under team control for awhile. Everyone else from the Marlins to the Yankees should have been in the mix, and I believe that Mauer would have gotten $27-30 million a season on the open market.

Luckily for the Twins it was a no-brainer to open up their checkbook for Mauer, since he’s not only the face of the franchise, but the face of Minnesota. Mauer was born in St. Paul and wanted to be a Twin as long as they took care of him. It also helped that the Twins have a brand new stadium opening up this year, which means extra money. And the stadium opening gave Minnesota all the incentive they needed to lock up Mauer to a team record deal. They might have sold out opening day without him, but if they wanted anyone to show up for the rest of their games, they needed number 7 in the lineup.

Now with Mauer locked up and some of the other moves they have made recently, the future is bright in Minnesota. While this might not be the year they return to the World Series (that Nathan injury is a killer), it probably isn’t too far off. When they do, they will owe it all to their hometown hero, and feel pretty good about the money they spent.

Closing Time: Where Do The Twins Go From Here?

March 10, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Up until yesterday, the Minnesota Twins were the prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central and were considered a strong contender for the World Series. Minnesota might have been swept by the Yankees in Round 1 of the playoffs last season, but this year the Twins were built for a different outcome. Not only had their key players gotten healthy, but Minnesota revamped their biggest offensive/defensive weakness; their middle infield. With the additions of Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, the future began to look a little bright in Minnesota. All of that changed yesterday when it was announced that closer Joe Nathan was likely out for the season with an elbow injury.

As great a player that Joe Mauer is, it is Joe Nathan that the key to the Twins. Traditionally closers are one of the most overrated and over paid positions on a major league roster, Nathan is the exception (though he is paid quite well). Nathan’s name might get mentioned in the same breath with other top closers, but usually its not the first couple of names mentioned. In reality, no closer has been more dominate than Nathan since he started closing games in 2004. On top of that, no closer is more important to his team than Joe Nathan. While all contending teams need top closers, teams like the Red Sox and Yankees have ace pitchers like Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia, the Minnesota Twins have Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins. Minnesota doesn’t have the starting pitching that can win games by themselves, they rely on their bullpen to hold leads or keep it a 1 or 2 run game. And Nathan is the best stopper in the game. When Minnesota turns a lead over to him, they know that the majority of the time they can put another game in the win column.

Without Nathan the Twins are hurting, they have a pretty good collection of arms in the bullpen, but none of these guys can fill his shoes. First off if the Twins slot one of the other bullpen arms in the closers role, it will create another hole in the bullpen, and will still have a similar overall effect. While arms like Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek and others are impressive, they have their own roles in this bullpen. And their numbers might not be quite as good in a 9th inning pressure situation. While I think the Twins could cobble together a closer by committee for a month or two, they don’t have the experience or quality starting pitching to not address this need externally.

There are four primary options out there on the trade market that the Twins could look to right now:

Kerry Wood, Indians:  The Indians wouldn’t mind making this trade in the division as they are looking to rebuild, and Wood isn’t part of that process. While wood has transformed himself as a quality closer, he carries an 8 figure salary that the Twins can’t absorb. Unless the Indians were willing to eat quite a bit of the contract, and the Twins were willing to offer up the better quality prospects to ensure that they do, Wood doesn’t seem likely to be pitching for Minnesota this season.

Heath Bell, Padres:  Bell was great as the Padres closer last season and only makes $4 million. As an added bonus, Bell also has another year left of arbitration, which is good since Nathan probably won’t be 100% for much of next season. The downside to Bell is the Padres have attached a value to him, like he’s Joe Nathan. Their demands seem to be quite high in any trade negotiations, and might be more than the Twins are willing to give up. It is also a lot to ask since Bell has only been a closer for one season, and spent half of that year closing games at Petco Park, the best pitching park in baseball. While his numbers were good on the road, you have to wonder if that will keep up and how he will do in the American League. Bell is a nice addition, but probably too rich for Minnesota’s blood.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays:  The Blue Jays would definitely be looking to move Frasor as they are another rebuilding team looking to cash in on their trade chips. Frasor has been a good bullpen arm, who had a very good season in 2009. While he’d help upgrade the bullpen, he probably isn’t the answer to the loss of Nathan. Frasor has never been a full time closer, so this would be a jump for him. Also while Frasor’s 2010 price tag is nice ($2.65 million), he is a free agent after this season, which is a bit of a knock to his value.

George Sherrill, Dodgers:  So far you haven’t heard Sherrill’s name attached too often to Minnesota’s situation, but he seems like the perfect candidate. Sherrill has a year and a half of full time closing experience, which is more than either Bell or Frasor have. Also Sherrill has spent the majority of his career in the American League, including closing games for that year and a half in Baltimore. The O’s have a great hitters park, and faces the best offenses in baseball. Sherrill like Bell, has another year of arbitration, and makes only $4.5 million this season. In addition Sherrill brings another benefit to the table, he is a lefty. He is absolutely devastating towards left-handed batters, which will allow him to be a great set-up man when Nathan returns next year. The Dodgers will move him since they have Broxton in their bullpen and don’t seem to like too much paying Sherrill ‘closer’ money, compared to ‘set-up’ money. Los Angeles also doesn’t seem to be asking for the arm and the leg that San Diego seems to be looking for, making Sherrill the best buy out there.

What do you think? Who should the Twins look at to replace Nathan?

Worth the Wait: Twins Outlast Tigers and Playoff Predictions

October 7, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

It took 24 combined hits, 14 different pitchers and 12 innings, (not to mention 163 games) but the Minnesota Twins are the 2010 AL Central Division champs. Early on the Tigers took a 3-0 lead, but the Twins battled back to go up 4-3 in the 7th before the Tigers tied it to force extra innings. Minnesota had to outlast a number of Tigers opportunities in the late innings, including scoring the tying run in the 10th to keep the game alive. Now the Twins “won” the right to face the Yankees in the first round in a series that starts tonight.

Yankees vs. Twins:

New York is a huge favorite in the five game series, and that was even before the Twins used some of the best bullpen arms last night. This very well could be a sweep, but I think the Twins will steal one of the games from New York when they return home to Minnesota. The Yankees just have too much pitching and hitting for the Twins. And if the game is ever close in the 8th or 9th inning the Yankees have Mariano Rivera, the best closer ever to play the game. The Twins right now are without their second best offensive weapon (Morneau) and have a makeshift pitching rotation. They just can’t match up with the Yankees to really give them a threat.

Rockies vs. Phillies

No team has been hotter down the stretch this year than the Colorado Rockies, going 74-42 after replacing Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy early in the season. They almost stole the NL West from the Dodgers, and overcame seven other teams fighting for the Wild Card spot down the stretch. Their impressive run though is about to come to an end, as the are prepared to meet the world champs in the first round. The Philadelphia Phillies have a great offense with five players with 20 or more home runs on the year. The Phillies have the deepest starting pitching they’ve had since they went to the World Series in 1993, with a pair of aces at the top in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Lee and Hamels should be the difference in the series, between the two of them they should be able to win three games. The Phillies only weakness is their bullpen, I don’t know if they can rely on them to hold 1-3 run leads night in and night out. The good news for Philly is they can use their extra starting depth to pitch meaningful innings out of the bullpen. The Rockies are a good team, but are already without one of their top pitchers for the series. They have a good lineup 1-8, but don’t have the star power outside Tulowitzki at SS. As long as the Phillies don’t need to rely on their bullpen too much, they should have no problems advancing to the next round. I think Philadelphia wins this series 3-1, although with the way the Rockies have been playing and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them force a game 5.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals:

The Cardinals seem to be a favorite NL World Series pick among baseball people out there, but I don’t think they will make it past LA in the first round. I understand that the Cards have Pujols and Matt Holliday, two of the best hitters in the game, and they have a pair of Cy Young contenders in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Unfortunately, I don’t think they have enough talent elsewhere to win this series. The Dodgers are stacked 1-25 on their roster, they have the deepest, bench, lineup, bullpen and rotation in the National League this year. Combine that with the home field advantage aspect, and I think the Dodgers are the favorites in this series. The big difference is going to be the bullpens in this matchup. The Dodgers might have the best bullpen in the game right now, where as the Cardinals bullpen scares me even more than the Phillies bullpen. They have been pitching over their heads this year, and I don’t know if they will be able to shut the door on the Dodgers offense like they were able to do against the likes of the Pirates and Reds during the season. In the end I think the Dodgers bench and bullpen win the day (and series) for LA 3-2.