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Grading some of the early moves:

July 2, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Deals I loved:

Memphis resigning Rudy Gay: I know, I know everyone is saying the Grizzlies overpaid for Gay, but they had to retain him. They are a team heading in the right direction (despite not having the greatest draft) and can compete for a deep playoff run next season with Gay back in the fold. Sometimes Gay disappears from games, but part of that is the Grizzlies weakness at the point guard position which doesn’t set him up effectively. While they paid a steep price, Gay is just 23 and should continue to develop into a star.

Suns resigning Channing Frye: Frye will make more than $10 million less than (likely) former teammate Amare Stoudemire, and will be a bargain for the Suns as Amare heads to greener pastures. Frye might not have Stoudemire’s physicality or athletic ability, but he is a Forward/Center who can give them solid minutes. He also has 3-point range that makes him a tough defensive assignment for opposing big men. Frye is not a star but he should be well worth the money they are giving him.

Moves I really liked:

Bucks grabbing Drew Gooden: I have always been a pretty big Drew Gooden fan. He might not be a perennial All-Star, but he gets the job done in the paint and can play both the 4 and the 5. He is a good rebounder and has a solid midrange game. He isn’t going to average 20 and 10, but he will give you a solid 12-15 points and 7-10 boards a game. Gooden is also a consistent player and is still just 28 years old, which makes him a safe bet for the length of the contract. The Bucks filled their biggest need, and did so without completely breaking the bank. If Michael Redd is healthy the Bucks have a quality starting lineup.

Moves I am indifferent on:

Bucks resigning John Salmons: I like John Salmons and he is a good player but paying him over $8 million a year over 5 years is a bit risky. Two weeks ago this deal would have made more sense but in that time the Bucks announced that Carlos Delfino will return, traded for SF Corey Maggette and SG Chris Douglas-Roberts and drafted a pair of guys who can play the 3 in Sanders and Hobson. Now I understand the team being worried about the health of Michael Redd, but they could have gotten a solid 2-3 player in the $4-6 million dollar range which would have made a lot more sense. While Salmons might be worth $8 million+ a year if he was a full-time starter, he isn’t worth it on the Bucks.

Moves I didn’t like:

Raptors resign Amir Johnson: There are some things to like with Amir Johnson, he is a young big man with some upside, but not nearly enough things for me to justify paying $7 million a year over 5 years. Johnson averaged 6.2 points and 4.8 boards a game last year. And while yes his opportunities will go up next year with Chris Bosh likely moving on, Johnson averaged 18 minutes already and will now fight with rookie Ed Davis for time. Johnson is a good back up power forward, but they are paying him like a starter. I think Toronto will regret this deal pretty quickly, as they won’t get near the production they are looking for. Especially when you consider they could have had either Frye or Gooden for less, guys who can play the 5 and spread the floor.

Timberwolves resign Darko Milicic: Milicic is the ultimate bust story and while he is on his way to possibly resurrecting his career, he is not worth $20 million over 4 years. Yes Milicic is just 25 and is a 7 footer, but he has never showed he can be a legit starter or even significant contributor anywhere he has been. And Milicic has been given plenty of chances to do well, with some pretty solid supporting casts. While I do believe some upside is there, he shouldn’t be getting $5 million a year, and definitely not over 4 years. This contract eats up a good chunk of the Timberwolves cap space, at a time when there were still better options available. This is not the deal you were hoping for if you were a Timberwolves fan.

Top Five NBA Teams of the Future

March 13, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Fanspeak contributing writer Geoff Nelowet

With the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers dominating nearly every media outlet, and with the words “Kobe” and “LeBron” prefacing every NBA conversation, it’s time we take a look at the teams that aren’t leading the league right now, but almost certainly will be in the future. I’ve ranked the top five teams of the future based on three criteria: young talent, salary cap space, and projected draft status. Two of the five teams are currently NBA bottom feeders, but they have young talent, cap space, and ostensibly a top-five draft pick in this summer’s NBA draft.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 39-24 Payroll: 58.3 M (28th in NBA) Draft Status: two non-lottery first round picks, OKC and Phoenix

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden make up easily the best young nucleus in the NBA. Durant is currently second in the NBA in scoring at almost 30 per game, and Westbrook is averaging nearly 17 points and 8 assists in just his second professional season. Jeff Green is having a bit of a down year, but he’s still putting up 14.5 points and over 6 boards a night, and rookie James Harden is averaging 10 points per game in limited minutes.

This team has already found success in the NBA, as they currently sit as the five seed in the rugged Western Conference playoff race. They will definitely be the proverbial “team nobody wants to face come playoff time” because they get better every week, and it’s only a matter of time before they become the NBA elite.

This team also holds the third-lowest payroll in the NBA, and with this summer expected to be the biggest free agency in decades, the Oklahoma City Thunder could land a low post player such as Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer. Even more optimistically, the Thunder could go after Chris Bosh. Regardless of what transpires this summer or the next, the Thunder are in line to sign a major low-post contributor that will almost definitely push them over the top.

2. Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 39-28 Payroll: 55.8 M (30th) Draft Status: non-lottery selection

The Portland Trail Blazers looked like a team with an even brighter future a year ago, but with Greg Oden facing major injuries – and the fact that he simply has not become a dominant NBA center, the Trail Blazers bright future has slightly dimmed. Also many people had high hopes for foreigner Rudy Fernandez, and especially after the Olympics, but he has yet to amount to anything more than a solid backup wing player.

Despite these setbacks, the Trail Blazers are still a team fraught with good, young talent. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have become cornerstones for the franchise, and Roy looks to be one of the best young scorers in the NBA. Oden still has plenty of upside as long as he stays healthy, and Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum round out a very young and talented bench.

Portland also has the lowest payroll in the NBA, and premium talent is on its way. Portland of course, will be vying with nearly half the league to sign the big name free agents this summer, but even if they end up signing second or third tier players, they will still be a major force in the Western Conference for years to come.

3. Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 34-31 Payroll: 57.4 M (29th) Draft Status: three first round picks, top-fifteen pick (Memphis), two non-lottery DEN and LAL

OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay have already made this team competitive, and they will only get better with time. Mayo averages 17.5 points per game in just his second NBA season, and Gasol has emerged as one of the best young centers in the league averaging nearly 15 points and 10 rebounds. Rudy Gay has been equally as good averaging 20 points and 5 boards.

Memphis’ young nucleus has been in the NBA for three seasons or less, and with solid young players such as Mike Conley and Sam Young contributing on a nightly basis, this looks to be one of the better teams in the NBA down the road. Memphis also has center Hasheem Thabeet, whom they drafted second overall last summer riding the bench. He is the prototypical “project” player, and he has spent time in the NBDL, which is generally a bad sign, but he still has the ability to be an excellent player. With three first round picks they can either package them to acquire a top lottery pick or use all three to have a top young bench.

Memphis holds the second-lowest payroll in the NBA. They have the ability to make a major splash in free agency, but it will be difficult for them to reel in big name free agents when they are competing with the New York Knicks or any other more enticing destination.

4. Golden State Warriors

Record: 17-47 Payroll: 65.9 M (21st) Draft Status: top-five pick

This team may be a surprise on this list, but they will boast arguably the best backcourt in the NBA for years to come. Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry have become two of the best guard in the NBA, and they can both score and pass. Ellis is currently fifth in the NBA in scoring at 25.5 per game, and Stephen Curry, in his rookie season, has averaged over 20 points per game over the last two months.

The Warriors also have Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph – two very good young players – in their frontcourt. Biedrins has been battling injuries, and Randolph has been inconsistent at times, but both have the skills to be excellent starters, and they have demonstrated that on numerous occasions.

Golden State will likely not be a big spender this off season, but they are in line for a top-five draft pick, which means even more young talent. Of course, their pick could be a bust, but this draft is expected to be unusually deep. If the Warriors get lucky and earn a top-two pick, they could set themselves up for a very promising future.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 14-51 Payroll: 62.2 M (24th) Draft Status: Up to three selections, top-five pick Minn., late-1st round (Utah), mid-round (Charlotte)*

The Timberwolves have one of the best young frontcourts in the NBA with Al Jefferson averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game, and Kevin Love contributing 15 points and 11 boards per night. Both players are under 25 years old, which is the most impressive part of their performances. Rookie Jonny Flynn has averaged nearly 14 points per game at point guard for the Timberwolves, and he completes their triumvirate of young talent. The Timberwolves also hold the rights to the top international player, Ricky Rubio, who can be used as a major trade chip down the road.

The Timberwolves also hold a minimal payroll, with most of their contracts coming off the books at the end of the season. As with every team, signing a big name free agent will be a highly competitive endeavor, and it is unlikely that someone such as LeBron James would ever consider signing with Minnesota, but looking ahead to future free agent classes, the T-Wolves could be a major player.

Most importantly, Minnesota is a lock for a top-five draft pick. They will be able to add a fourth elite young player to their already talented core group. They could also have an additional two first round picks that the Timberwolves could use to bolster their bench with young talent.This summer’s draft could push teams such as Minnesota and Golden State to immediate playoff contenders similar to the jump that Memphis made this past year.

*Charlotte’s pick is top 12 protected, right now they are just outside the top 12, but that could easily change.

Rubio Stays On The Other Side Of The Pond

September 1, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Minnesota Timberwolves received troubling news yesterday with the announcement that the 5th overall pick in June’s draft PG Ricky Rubio will be staying in Spain another two years. The T-wolves GM David Kahn tried to negotiate a buyout from Rubio’s team DKV Joventut, but those efforts ended yesterday when Rubio was traded to FC Barcelona for cash. Under NBA rules the T-wolves couldn’t offer more than $500,000 and Rubio would have been forced to pay the rest of the $8 million buyout. Now Rubio won’t be free to come to the NBA until the 2011 season.

Minnesota’s rebuilding efforts took a dramatic hit with the loss of the 18 year old Rubio. They’ll retain his rights, but waiting two years for a player that some considered to be the 2nd best in the draft is a body blow for Minnesota. When he was drafted Rubio seemed like the perfect compliment to the Timberwolves big men F/C Al Jefferson and F/C Kevin Love. Rubio, only a teenager, is considered a very refined player, with excellent ball handling skills. Rubio was considered the ‘steal of the draft’ when he fell to the 5th pick, now ‘robs’ the Timberwolves of the savior that they were going to build their team around.

Now a move that was widely panned on draft day may come through and help save the T-wolves season. After drafting Rubio 5th overall, Minnesota took another PG Jonny Flynn with the very next pick. At the time the move seemed extremely odd, there were additional options available and Flynn was considered a true point guard just like Rubio. Flynn doesn’t have the shooting ability to be a combo guard, and having them on the floor at the same time was going to be redundant. It seemed like a waste of talent and a waste of a pick, but now that redundancy still gives the T-wolves a top flight prospect at PG.

Rubio made the decision to not risk his own money now for the chance to play in the NBA and reach free agency (and the mega deal that comes with it) two years sooner. It is hard to fully fault him since if his career derailed due to injury or ineffectiveness that big pay day might never have come. Which would have meant Rubio would have given up over $7 million of his own money with nothing in return. He’ll still be in the NBA by the time he is 20 and could get that pay day yet. The problem is he probably did make a mistake by not accepting the buyout. He won’t ever make as much money as he would have if he came to the NBA this year, given his youth and marketability. Now Rubio is the one waiting to see if he made the right decision. Not only does the money play a factor, but also the play of Jonny Flynn. If Flynn reaches his potential Minnesota can always trade Rubio’s rights to another team in two years. Rubio went from knowing the situation that he was going to, a young rebuilding team with star talent, to the unknown. The T-Wolves could trade Rubio to a worse rebuilding situation down the road. We won’t know the true outcome for awhile, but right now it looks like Minnesota wasted their draft pick and Rubio wasted the chance to become the NBA’s next teenage phenom.