1 Duke:  There is obviously a lot to like when it comes to Duke. They are the third best team in the country, won the ACC Conference Tournament, and suffered just 5 losses this season. Furthermore Duke has a very veteran lineup with all 5 starters upperclassmen, including the three stars Jon Scheyer, Noland Smith and Kyle Singler. Scheyer, Smith and Singler are one of the best scoring trios in the nation, each averaging over 17 points a game. The Blue Devils luck out, because they are in the easiest overall region and don’t have anything standing in their way in the top half of the bracket. An Elite Eight appearance looks like a foregone conclusion for Duke.

That being said Duke is the weakest 1 seed, and has upset potential written all over them. They struggled away from the confines of Cameron Indoor Arena this year, as all 5 losses were on the road. While normally road losses are more acceptable in all sports, its troubling when you are talking about the NCAA Tournament, because all the games are going to be on neutral sites, taking away Duke’s best advantage. It was also troubling on how they lost on the road. Three of the five losses were by 7 points or more, including a 14 point loss to a really bad North Carolina State team. It is also worth noting that Duke barely squeaked by Miami and Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament on a neutral site, and neither one of those teams were top seeds (Miami actually was the 12th seed). In addition to not playing well away from home, there are serious questions about whether or not Duke can match up athletically with some of the teams out there. They lack the quickness to defend some of the other top teams. They will win their first game no problem, but despite being heavily favored don’t be surprised if they get knocked off earlier than projected.

2 Villanova:  The Wildcats looked like they were going to be a top seed earlier in the season, but really struggled in the 2nd half of their conference schedule. While Villanova might lack some signature wins, and be considered one of the weaker 2 seeds, don’t count them out just yet.  Their biggest weakness (Big East teams) are largely not an issue in the South Region as the only other foes are Louisville, in the top bracket, and Notre Dame who will have to get past Baylor to meet them in the Sweet 16. Notre Dame or Baylor could be a major stumbling block for Villanova, but I like their overall chances in this bracket. Yes, they lack the size to match up inside against most teams, but their guard play is perhaps the best in the nation. They have 6 guards that can score anytime they touch the ball. They can shoot and run the floor with the best of them. And that is what makes Villanova so great, they are quicker and faster than just about any other team and if they get out and run the game is over.

Great guard play is key in March, which gives Villanova a great advantage to go far in this region. While their inside game is lacking, they are still my favorite team from this region to advance to the Final Four.

Rest of the Games:

3 Baylor over Sam Houston State:  Baylor is a very balanced team and could be extremely dangerous in this tournament. They have size and outside shooters. At times they can play soft, but will have no trouble in round 1.

13 Siena over 4 Purdue:  You have got to feel for the Boilermakers, they were destined to be a number 1 seed until their top player Robbie Hummel went down with injury and their season went with it. While they still have some talent, I think Siena has a great chance to upset them. Siena is a pretty veteran team with a number of good scorers.

12 Utah State over 5 Texas A&M:  Utah State will get underrated but they are a dangerous 12 seed. They play good basketball for 40 minutes every game and have a number of solid scoring options. Texas A&M had some good wins down the stretch but they aren’t a great team. They lack the couple top options you look for in a team and are too similar to Utah State.

6 Notre Dame over 11 Old Dominion:  Notre Dame has completely changed their offense and it has worked miracles for them. They slow down the game to their pace and have a good combination of inside/outside scorers. They are a very veteran team, that I think can make a small run in the tournament.

7 Richmond over 10 Mount St. Mary’s:  Richmond is a very dangerous, dangerous team in this soft region. They could make a serious run if the stars align for them, and should fairly easily win their round 1 match up. Look for the Spiders to give Villanova all they can handle in the second round.

9 Louisville over 8 Washington:  This isn’t last year’s Louisville team that was a top seed, but they could be dangerous in this Tournament. They have some experience, and are very athletic and strong. In addition they are a very good shooting team, and have shown they can beat anyone, by knocking of Syracuse twice this season. Overall they’ve been really inconsistent, and don’t have a true star player to rely on like they have had in the past. I like them over Washington, and think given their strengths they could be a bracket buster and knock off Duke to make a run, but I’m not sold on them. They have the talent, but we don’t always see it on the floor.

1 Syracuse:  Despite being unranked to start the year, the Orangemen have been one of the top teams all season in college basketball. They had just four losses against them, which is pretty impressive considering the strength of the Big East. They did almost lose their number 1 seed due to their quarterfinals game in the Big East Tournament. Not only did they lose the game to the eventual runner up Georgetown, but their star center Arinze Onuaku went down with an injury. Syracuse won’t need Onuaku in the first couple rounds, but they will need him healthy by the Sweet 16 if they are to advance in the tournament. Syracuse will need to rely more heavily on their unproven bench until Onuaku gets healthy. Luckily, the Orangemen have plenty of other weapons to get them by. Forward Wes Johnson has been in the player of the year discussion all season. He led Syracuse in both scoring and rebounding, and was the number one option all season.

Syracuse dropping to the fourth number 1 seed, sent them packing out West, but in reality their first two games are in Buffalo making them pretty favorable. When they do head out West, Syracuse will try to stay focused but the road ahead of them isn’t an easy one. In the lower part of their bracket Pittsburgh (who was one of the 3 teams to beat them) looms large. They were the first team to knock off Syracuse this season and did so at the Carrier Dome. If they survive to the Elite Eight, Pitt is a dangerous team to play at a neutral site. The two biggest things to watch out for with Syracuse are their free throw shooting and turnover rate. Both of which are pretty low and could comeback to haunt them.

2 Kansas State:  Most teams use a 7-9 man rotation in college basketball, and only go deeper to the bench in blowout situations or serve foul/injury trouble. Kansas State literally plays their entire squad. Of their 13 players, no one played in fewer than 19 games, and no one averaged less than 6 minutes a game. That is unheard of in basketball today. Also, it’s not as though K-State was in some inferior conference that could rest their starters. They were runner up in the Big 12 conference, arguably the 2nd toughest conference in the nation. Their deep bench should be a benefit for a long run in the tournament. They can be more aggressive without worrying about foul trouble the way some teams do, as well as give some of their starters rest to keep them fresh for the next game. Keeping fresh legs in the game allows Kansas State to do what they do best, and that is run the floor. They like scoring in transition and before the defense gets set. In addition to their deep bench the Wildcats have an all upperclassman starting lineup. Their veteran leadership combined, with the young deep bench gives K-State a winning formula.

Kansas State should have no issue in round 1 against North Texas. The 2nd round presents a potential stumbling block against BYU, but the Wildcats depth should help them through. The Sweet 16 could get tricky for Kansas State if they face Pitt, as they don’t match up too well against the Panthers. While K-State can attack the rim some, they don’t control the paint. While they have more depth and experience than Pitt, they lack the defense to control the Panthers. If they do get by the Panthers, K-State’s lack of size will likely be their downfall at some point down the stretch.

Rest of the First round:

3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland:  Pitt is notorious to play down to opponents sometimes, and are also an inexperienced team so the potential for an upset exists. That being said, they have too much talent and are too well coached to lose this game. The Panthers have the talent to win this region if they play their best basketball, they just need to remain focused.

13 Murray St. over 4 Vanderbilt:  Vandy looked like a dangerous tournament team a month ago, as they were one of the top teams in the SEC, but they look like an early round upset here. Murray St. is a pretty veteran team, with quick guards that will give Vandy plenty of trouble.

12 UTEP over 5 Butler:  UTEP is a very underrated team. They have great guard play as well as one of the better big men in the country right now in Derrick Caracter. In addition to Caracter they have additional size that allows them to control the paint, and should match up well against Butler’s big men. Even if Butler wins the battle of the bigs, they don’t really have the guards to match up with UTEP. The one weakness for UTEP is their bench which is not very deep. Foul trouble could be devastating for them.

6 Xavier over 11 Minnesota:  Minnesota might have some fans because of what they did in the first couple rounds of the Big Ten tournament, but you need to remember they got beat by about 30 in the finals. Xavier is a pretty good team, that shouldn’t have much trouble with the Golden Gophers.

7 BYU over 10 Florida:  Florida somehow squeaked into the tournament, but I wouldn’t count on them being there too long. BYU should have little problem getting past the Gators in Round 1. I think Florida is pretty overrated and doesn’t have the talent level to compete in this game.

9 Florida State over 8 Gonzaga:  Gonzaga has been a tournament favorite for almost 10 years now, but I think they don’t make it out of the first round this year. This is a rebuilding year for them and I don’t think they can match up with FSU, particularly on the inside.

1 Kansas Jayhawks:

Kansas is the best team in the country and my pick to win the entire tournament. They have a good balance of veteran players like Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich (who also make up a great point guard-center combo) with young studs like Xavier Henry and Tyshawn Taylor. They can score from the inside and outside and do an excellent job on the defensive end. Kansas is also a very deep team, the Morris brothers give them size inside and Morningstar and Reed give them depth on the perimeter.

The Jawhawks have been close for a number of years now, but this could be the year they go all the way. They have a tough overall bracket to get through, but have the size and talent to do so. In an ironic twist, the Jayhawks lost only two games all season, and both of those teams (Tennessee and Oklahoma State) are somehow in their region. Kansas will have no trouble in Round 1 and easily knock off 16 Leigh.

2 Ohio State:

The Buckeyes have the best player in the nation in G-F Evan Turner, and he should lead them on good tournament run. Turner reminds me a lot of Dwyane Wade, and will need to carry Ohio State on his back like Wade did for Marquette in 2003. Ohio State has some good secondary pieces around Turner, in guards Buford, Lighty, and Diebler, but none of them can take over a game to take the pressure off Turner. If another team can find a way to slow down Turner, than Ohio State is in trouble. If Turner can be a weapon, then he sets up everyone else and makes them all better.

Ohio State’s biggest problem is their lack of size. While their guards have excellent size for guards they are all really guards, with ET being the lone exception. Turner can play just about anything, he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, and is the 2nd leading shot blocker. That lack of size and interior presence will present problems for Ohio State as the tournament progresses. Right now though they are an easy favorite over UC Santa Barbra.

Rest of the Match-ups:

3 Georgetown over 14 Ohio:  Georgetown lost some head scratchers this season, but also won some big games. Talent is never the Hoyas problem, staying in their game and playing consistent basketball is. Hoyas should have no problems knocking off Ohio and head into the 2nd round.

4 Maryland over 13 Houston:  Maryland might not have played in as dominate of a conference as the ACC has been in the past, but they were easily the 2nd best team and faced their share of high level competition. While the Terps lack the overall team to go deep into this tournament, they will win this game easily.

5 Michigan State over New Mexico State:  Usually the 5-12 match up is one where we see some upsets, but don’t look for it in this region. The Spartans were last year’s runner-up and have the experience and talent to do some damage in the first few rounds. Michigan State usually plays their best basketball come March, and I’d expect the same thing this year.

6 Tennessee over 11 San Diego State:  This game is an upset favorite for a lot of people out there, but I think Tennessee can win this game. It will be a tough match-up, but I like the Volunteers. Tennessee is a team that beat not only Kansas this year, but Kentucky as well, so you know they have the talent to play with anyone. I also don’t see Bruce Pearl losing in the first round of the Tournament, he’s too good of a coach and gets the most out of his players.

7 Oklahoma State over 10 Georgia Tech:  This is another game people are looking at for an upset, but I like the Cowboys over the Yellow Jackets in this one. Georgia Tech has some great talent on their roster, including a few guys who will be playing in the NBA next season, but they don’t play well enough as a team for me to give them the nod in this game. Tech is far too inconsistent and gives up way too many points from the perimeter. That 2nd issue will come back to haunt them in this game because OK State lives on the 3-point line. James Anderson is one of the most underrated players in the country and a fantastic scorer. He will give the Jackets more than they can handle and send the Cowboys into the 2nd round.

8 UNLV over 9 Northern Iowa:  Yes, that’s right, I don’t believe a single low seed will advance past the first round. UNLV isn’t a great team, but they have enough to hold off a fun Northern Iowa squad. I look for this game to be close, but UNLV to have too much size and strength for Northern Iowa to handle.

I know Kansas is the number one overall seed, but my question is does the selection committee know that? I ask because I feel the Jayhawks might have the toughest road to the Championship game of any 1 seed. Kansas should cruise in the first two rounds, but in the Sweet 16 they will face a likely match up against either (4) Maryland or (5) Michigan State. That is by far the toughest 4 or 5 match ups in any of the regions. Looking ahead further their Elite 8 match up will be likely against either Ohio State or Georgetown, which I think you can make a strong case being the best 2-3 seed combo in the regions as well. Probably the only advantage for Kansas is that the bottom of the bracket is probably the toughest you find, and it is quite possible that neither Ohio St. or Georgetown make it to the Elite 8. (6) Tennessee, (7) Oklahoma St., and (10) Georgia Tech all have the talent to make a serious run in the bottom of that bracket.

If Kansas has the hardest road, Duke by far has the easiest path to the Final Four. If they don’t make it to the Elite 8, Duke should just stop playing basketball because they don’t deserve to be in Division 1 if they can’t succeed in the cakewalk of a region they have. First, they got placed in the South, where they should have a good bit of support. Secondly they having nothing in front of them for the first 3 rounds. In the 2nd round they will face either (8) California or (9) Louisville. Cal doesn’t have any impressive wins this season, they lost to top teams, and beat the teams they were supposed to. While they did win the Pac-10 regular season, the Conference was extremely down this year, giving little credence to the belief they can be a threat to Duke. Louisville was able to stay somewhat competitive in the ultra-tough Big East, but with the exception of their two wins against Syracuse, they weren’t able to beat any team that was better than them. They did take a number of teams down to the wire, but weren’t able to close out games. Unfortunately for them they lack the upper-level talent to beat Duke. On paper Duke should have a tough Sweet 16 match up with (4) Purdue (seriously Texas A&M does not impress me as a 5 seed, I think they are completely overrated), but Purdue is really hurting with the loss of star Robbie Hummel. I’m guessing they don’t make it to the Sweet 16 without him, and it wouldn’t shock me if (12) Utah State is Duke’s opponent in the Sweet 16.

Luckily there is some real talent in the bottom of the region, so Duke doesn’t have a coronation into the Final Four. Either (2) Villanova or (3) Baylor should be able to overcome the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight if they make it that far. Both are better all-around teams that should give Duke plenty of problems. Even if there is an upset and one of the lower seeds come out of the bottom of that region, Duke will have a solid opponent. I think (11) Old Dominion, (7) Richmond, and (6) Notre Dame could make a serious run in the region. Overall though Duke really lucked out with their region, they should be well rested by the time they make the Elite Eight, which could be a major advantage.

All-in-all the tournament looks exciting with a number of great match-ups. My one gripe is the omission of Mississippi State. Now I realize you can’t judge a team solely by their Conference Tournament performance, but I think Mississippi State was very deserving of a bid. This team was one-tenth of a second away from earning an automatic bid, and instead has to settle for a 1 seed in the NIT. They took the best team in the nation down to the wire, on a “neutral” court (I think Kentucky fans out numbered Bulldog fans 20-1). And on the way to facing Kentucky, they knocked off Vanderbilt (a ranked team and a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament), and Florida (a bubble team that they should have taken the place of). Now I know they had some bad losses on their schedule, but the Bulldogs can play, and its hard for me to see a team like Florida or Minnesota make it over them. Minnesota seemingly made it because of their tournament run where they knocked off Michigan State and Purdue. But the difference is Purdue was without their best player, and in the Championship game Minnesota lost by almost 30 points against Ohio State. While Ohio State is the 5th or 6th best team in the country they aren’t as good as Kentucky, whom Mississippi State came so close to beating.

What are your thoughts–who was snubbed and who is overranked?

WVU Hangs On: The West Virginia Mountaineers were the last team standing in the Big East, after a brutal championship game against Georgetown. WVU won 60-58, on a last second shot by Da’Sean Butler, his second game winning shot of the Tournament. Even with the double bye, the Mountaineers victory is pretty impressive. Surviving in the Big East is no easy task, as WVU was the only one of the top 4 seeds (double bye teams) to get out of the quarterfinals. In addition the Mountaineers won all of their games by three points or less, and the game was decided on the final possession.

Purdue Triples Its Point Total From The First Half And Still Loses: With 5 minutes remaining in the first half the Boilermakers had just 4 points on the scoreboard. They managed to notch 11 by halftime, and almost tripled that total in the 2nd half to finish with 42. Not surprisingly Purdue, ranked fifth in the country, lost the game 69-42. The Boilermakers not only lost the game and the chance to win the Big Ten title, but they lost any chance at being a number 1 seed and probably won’t even be a number 2 after that performance. The injury to Robbie Hummel really came back to bite Purdue yesterday, as they looked like a shell of themselves. Unfortunately the NCAA selection committee will probably place a lot of stock into that game. Minnesota is a solid team but they weren’t in the tournament before yesterday’s win (and they still might end up just missing the cut). Not only should Purdue not have lost to them in the first place, but they should not have been beaten like that.

Kentucky Cruises To The Finals: The Kentucky Wildcats crushed the Tennessee Volunteers yesterday 74-45, on their way to earn a berth in the SEC Finals against Mississippi State. Kentucky’s freshman class got the job done yesterday as John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and DeMarcus Cousins all scored double figures, and had great all around games. Despite the fact that the Volunteers previously beat the Wildcats this season, this wasn’t even a game yesterday. Cousins controlled the paint yesterday, and the game was over. He led the Wildcats with 15 boards, and could not be stopped by the Tennessee big men. Overall UK out rebounded the Volunteers by 14, and that was one of the biggest differences in the game.

Kansas Wins Their 6th Straight Title: The Jayhawks knocked off their cross state rival Wildcats to win their 6th straight Big 12 title. Though Kansas State was in game and kept it close, Kansas controlled the game from start to finish. By winning the Big 12 Title, Kansas all but assured themselves the number 1 overall seed in the entire NCAA Tournament, making their road to the Championship game a little easier.

With the college basketball season regular season over and the conference tournaments starting up bubbles will burst and team’s seeds will rise and fall. Right now Syracuse (despite yesterday’s loss), Kansas, Kentucky and Duke seem poised for number 1 seeds. Don’t count out WVU or Villanova if one of them win the Big East Tournament or if Ohio State or Purdue win the Big Ten and Duke loses the ACC. Also If Kentucky were to lose in the first round of the SEC Tournament the could also be vulnerable.

Two other teams to watch out for are Pittsburgh and Maryland. Maryland just beat Duke and has a share of the ACC Title, it they can win the ACC Tournament as well, knocking off Duke again they will move their way up into a 3 seed and with a little luck possibly even a 2 seed. The Terps aren’t the most talented team, but they play with a lot of heart and Gary Williams gets the most out of his players. Pittsburgh wasn’t even on the Tournament radar when the season started. They were picked in the preseason to finish 9th in the Big East (likely out of the NCAA’s), but despite losing all their top players from last season and the low ranking the Panthers came out and finished 2nd in the conference. Now the Panthers are looking like a solid 3 seed, if they advance to the finals of the Big East Tournament they should move up to a 2 seed. If the Panthers win the Big East Tournament, and in doing so beat Syracuse and West Virginia (again) it would be tough to say they don’t deserve a number 1 seed (though its a huge long shot). Pitt does its best work in the Big East Tournament and it would not be a surprise to see them do it again this year.

So what other teams are likely to make big moves with success in their conference tournaments? And who are some teams that deserve top 4 seeds and ones that don’t?