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MLB 2011 Preview/Predictions

March 1, 2011 in Uncategorized by Kyle Howard

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak contributing writer Kyle Howard:

Just about a month away from the offical start of the MLB 2011 season. Many offseason publicity and free agency moves make this year in the MLB very interesting. Crawford to the Red Sox, Cliff Lee back to the Phillies, Werth to the Nationals, and Rafeal Soriano are only some of the new faces, in new places from this years offseason transactions. Here is my run through on my projections for this year:

AL East:

1) Red Sox; It kills me to put the Soxs as my division winners being a diehard Yankees fan but the Red Sox really beefed up their line up with the acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Their line up is as good as any in baseball and their pitching staff when healthy is top 5 in the league. Look for the Sox to make it back to October with either a division title or a wild card spot.

2) Yankees; Many Yankee fans look at this offseason as a failure. Not being able to convince Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke to come to New York was a tough pill to swallow. Their line up is still as lethal as any in the game and with the acquisition of Rafeal Soriano to help set up Rivera in the 9th really helped the needs of the bullpen. The starting pitching is going to be the real question mark throughout the season. If Burnett can turn his season around, Nova can turn into an every 5 day starter and the Mark Prior project can make strides, the Yankees will be pushing for yet another division title. Look for them to contend with the Sox until the last month of the season and either walking away with a wild card spot or best case scenario a division title.

3) Orioles; The Orioles are my surprise team of the league this year. They have done a great job of loading up on young talent and I feel that 2011 is the year they start making some noise. With Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters being the focal points of this team, the pitching talent needs to step up and you may be looking at a very dangerous team in the next few years. Look for the Orioles to have an above average year and finishing 3rd in the AL East.

4) Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay is in a transitioning period. They lost Crawford, Garza, and Soriano to free agentcy/trades and that leaves some big holes to fill for some young talented players in their farm system. With the acquistion of Manny and Damon, the Rays bring in some experience to their club with a more risk/reward mentality. The Rays staff is still a dangerous one lead by David Price and Evan Longoria will only improve and maybe a darkhorse candidate for MVP this year. Give the Rays some time to develop and they will be back in the postseason within the next couple of weeks.

5) Toronto; With still lingering questions on what Toronto’s next move is going to be, look for them to have a down year this year. Jose Bautista coming off a 54 home run year campaign and getting an extention I could see having a downer year. With some young potential pitching talent, look for the Blue Jays to use those as trade bait especially strikeout specialist Brandon Morrow.

AL Central:

1) Twins; It is difficult for me to pick a winner in this division being as the parity is so well distributed, so I will take experience and choose the Twinkees as the division winner. With Morneau coming back and the ability to resign Pavano, who is an innings machine, the Twins are poised to be the front runners of this jam packed division. If Nathan comes back healthy from his season ending surgury last year look for the Twins to be the winners of this division.

2) White Sox; Last year was a disappointment for the White Sox. With much publicity hovering over Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox struggled for most of the season. With the key offseason acquistion of Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko this team will have quite a powerful 4 and 5 spots in their line up. Also, Buerhle leading the staff followed by Floyd and Danks, look for this team to contend with the Twins for the division title and the loser will be in the wild card hunt.

3) Tigers; The Tigers 2011 season is on the shoulders of how healthy/sober Miguel Cabrera can be. The man has as much talent as their is in the MLB but, off field troubles have put the Tigers in a spin. Offseason acquistion Victor Martinez adds some power to a line up that was in desperate need for help around Cabrera.  Verlander leads this young staff, and when he is on is one of the most powerful pitchers in the league. A sophmore slump from promising young star Rick Porcello was a key difference maker in the Tigers 2010 season. If Porcello can get over his 2nd year struggles, look for the Tigers to contend for a majority of the season, but I feel the off the field publicity and inexperience in pitching will lead them to a 3rd place finish.

4) Royals; Its been a bad decade for the Royals but, this year,  I can see them making some strides to becoming a better squad. Alex Gordon needs to become the player we all thought he would become when he was drafted 4th overall in 2005. Luke Hochevar splashed onto the scene last year with a decent season and showing signs he could become a decent starter at the Major league level. The Royals still have a long way to go but, if their draft picks start stepping up the next 5 years could look promising for this squad.

5) Indians; The Indians are in the rebuilding stage as an organization. With many young prospects gained from the Cliff Lee trade and Victor Martinez trade, look for this team to show a lot of new faces this year. Shin soo Choo is a rising star in the outfield showing signs of power and batting average and a good piece to build around. This will be a struggling year for the Indians and will stay that way unless they make some noise at the trade deadline.

AL West:

1) Angels; Coming off a very disappointing season last year look for the Angels to make it back to the postseason this year. With a star studed staff lead by Jared Weaver, Scott Kazmir, and Ervin Santana look for the pitching to help carry this team into October. Kendry Morales maybe the biggest difference maker on this team this season. If he comes back as healthy as he was before his ACL accident, look for him to be another darkhorse MVP candidate.

2) Texas; Losing Cliff Lee to free agency crippled this teams potential for years to come. Coming off of the organizations first World Series experience the sky was the limit for this team. Led by MVP Josh Hamilton and power slugging OF Nelson Cruz, this team will go as far as these 2 stars can stay healthy. With questions surrounding the starting staff, look for the Rangers to pick up an arm at the trade deadline in hopes of making another push into October.

3) Athletics; The Athletics have one of the best young pitching staffs in baseball and they live and die on how well these young guns can do. Grant Balfour, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill,  Brett Anderson, and Andrew Bailey are the cornerstones of this young franchise. Dont be surprised if they A’s make a push at the deadline by moving one of these players for a bat in an often weak line up with an aging Eric Chavez. Look for the Athletics to continue rebuilding and continue improvement for years to come.

4) Mariners; The Mariners need power and they need it fast. The Mariners were last in almost every statistical batting category last year and they need to add some power to that line up. With much promise in former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley from UNC, it wont be a surprise to see him starting by mid season. Felix Hernandez is just a decent offensive team away from being arguably the best pitcher and baseball and look for him to continue his dominence in 2011.

NL East:

1) Phillies; Many analyst have it already penciled in that the Phillies will be holding up another World Series Title come October in 2011. With possibly the best 4 starters ever to be assembled on a single team, look for them to dominate most of the teams in the NL. Additions such as Cliff Lee only make this team even stronger and a star studded line up to back him up it will be quite a challenge to take this team in a 7 game series. With Werth gone that opens up the spot for top prospect Dominic Brown to take the rains of right field. The Phillies will walk away with this division and by July be focusing on the Playoffs.

2) Braves; The Braves suprised many of us last year and this year are a team not to mess with. With Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe leading the staff and the emergence of Jason Heyward becoming a star in the MLB, and the acquisition of Dan Uggla,  look for the Braves to win a wild card and being on an upset alert come playoff time.

3) Marlins; The Marlins have been trying to develop young talent for most of the past couple of years in hopes of turning into a legit playoff squad. Lead by MVP candidate Hanley Rameriz and pitching stud Josh Johnson, the Marlins are looking for an additional bat and arm to help make a charge at a competitive East division.

4) Mets; I really do not know where to start with Los Mets. They have as much talent as a team would need to make an apperance in the postseason but, for some reason they never seem to all click at the same time. Look for this years Mets team to be centered around David Wright and a healthy Jose Reyes. Pitching is very suspect due to Johan having elbow surgery. Look for the Mets to try and compete but come up short in the East race.

5) Nationals; Being from Northern Virginia and having been to multiple Nats games its difficult for me to put them in this position. Strasburg is what brought this team alive and made them play with passion and pride but, with Tommy John Surgery dont look for Strasburg to be throwing until September, if they even decide to let him throw at all. With key acquistion of Jayson Werth, the Nats will be along the same lines of production as last year. The future looks bright in Washington and if Strasburg can come back as good as he left, and Harper doesn’t disappoint down in the minors, this team will be fun to watch in the coming years.

NL Central:

1) Cubs; I know its as shocking to you as it is to me that the Cubs are going to finish first in the division. The Cubs made a key move in acquiring Garza this winter, and if their young talent continues to produce look for them to be a sneaky good team come playoff time. This pick is definitely a stretch and my upset of the year.

2) Reds; The surprise team of the year in 2010, the Reds will be looking to capitalize on thier run last year and continue it into this year. Joey Votto is the leader of this squad and looks to duplicate is MVP year last year and transition it to this year. Pitching was a strong point for the Reds last year but, I feel that they will struggle this year with to much inconsistentcy. Look for the Reds to make it back to the post season and be a contender as a wild card.

3) Cardinals; The Cardinals would be first in the Central if it werent for the staggering news on Adam Wainwright out for the season. The loss of Wainwright equals trouble for this club. With the huge injury to the staff and an unhappy Albert Pujols, look for this club to have a difficult time with all the distractions and end up chasing a wild card spot.

4) Brewers; The Brewers have 2 young stars in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, arguably 1 of the best tandems in the league. With the line up set up to produce runs the Brewers made a huge trade in aquiring Zack Greinke to help with the staff. Look for the Brewers to improve and possibly take the Cardinals spot and fighting for a spot in the post season.

5) Astros; It is easy to say that the Astros are in a rebuilding year. Losing Roy Oswalt to a trade pretty much sums it up. With young talent in the minors and an aging outfield minus Hunter Pence, look for the Astros to struggle most the year and look to being sellers at the deadline

6) Pirates; This team is the only team that manages to get great prospects and trade them away. The Pirates have not had a well established club since the 80′s and I don’t see that happening this year. Their one true star Andrew McCutchen is a lead-off hitter and you can’t build a team around that. Zack Duke will finish with a sub .500 win record and they will use many new arms from their farm system this year. Sorry so called “City of Champions” but you may want to concentrate on NFL happening in the fall and Crosby recovering over watching this squad this year.

NL West:

1) Giants; The defending World Series Champions have to be the favorites to come out of this jam packed West division. Offseason loss of World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria, leaves a big hole at shortstop and Juan Uribe’s departure to division rival LA leaves a big spot open at the utility role. With the young guns on the pitching staff such as Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner leading the way and crazy Wilson closing out games, look for this team to make it back to the Postseason in a coinflip of a division.

2) Rockies; the Rockies struggled last year despite the fact they are known as being a second half team only 2 years removed from their prolific playoff run. With flame thrower Ubaldo Jimenez leading the staff and Troy Tulowitzki the captain of the team. Look for the Rockies to make some noise and be a strong challenger for being the wild card team come October.

3) Padres; the Padres had a banner of a year last season coming down to the wire last season with the Giants going into the last game of the season. The Padres have an underrated pitching staff lead by rising star Mat Latos, with verterans such as Jon Garland to help mentor the fire baller. Free Agency hit the Padres hard by losing their superstar first basemen Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. I can see the Padres relying on their arms to keep them in the race but with no one significant to replace Gonzalez, runs are going to be hard to come by for this club.

4) Diamondbacks; This team is tricky to pick. One day their hot the next day their not. After giving up Dan Haren to the Angels in return for some prospects, the diamondbacks are clearly a process in the making. Relying heavily on star outfielder Justin Upton is going to be too much for this team to overcome.

Playoff Predition:

AL                                           NL                                         World Series

Red Sox                              Giants                               Phillies vs. Red Sox

Yankees                            Cubs                                         Phillies win 4-2

Angels                               Phillies

Twins                                 Rockies

Wednesday’s Morning Links: Hot Stove Edition

December 8, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Cubs Lock Up Carlos Pena: It was a bit of a surprising move since Chicago wasn’t as closely linked to Pena as some other teams were, but fills a major need for the Cubs. The terms are a bit surprising at 1 year for $10 million, since Pena is coming off his worst professional season. Even if it was just a one year deal, I’m shocked Chicago went 8 figures for him. Now I would have understood $6 million with another $4 million in incentives, but then at least he’d be earning a big part of that contract. If Pena doesn’t rebound, this could be a big waste of money for Chicago and a huge regret. The free agent first base market got noticeably thinner with this deal, and it could lead to some interesting trades.

Angels Get Involved In the Cliff Lee Market: With the Angels stocked full of pitching and expressing an interest in a number of other key free agents, no one ever thought they were a serious suitor for Cliff Lee. That might be on the verge of changing as the Angels are expected to make a serious bid for the ace. Some of the thinking is that Lee’s two most likely destinations, Rangers and Yankees, are big time rivals of the Angels, and would hurt L.A.’s playoff chances if he signs with either one of them. On the flip side though, their biggest needs are on offense and in their bullpen, and it might be hard to fill those if they sign Lee. Sure they could then trade one of their starters to save money/bring in talent, but it might not be as beneficial as signing Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre.

White Sox and Konerko Parting Ways?: The White Sox seem to be taking a firm line with Paul Konerko in their latest negotiations with their star first baseman, but really I think it is just posturing. The free agent market has really dried up, and if they lose Konerko their signing of Dunn will be a little more than a wash. Chicago needs Konerko at this point, and I really can’t see him playing anywhere else. Yes, he might have a few other suitors but none of them are as close to winning as Chicago is. I’m guessing it ends up being a 3 year $40.5 million deal, which is just under the average that Dunn was signed for.

Angels Steal Haren from the Diamondbacks

July 26, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deal: The Los Angeles Angels acquire SP Dan Haren for SP Joe Saunders, SP Pat Corbin (A+), RP Rafael Rodriguez (AAA), and a PTBNL (likely SP Tyler Skaggs (A-):

Angels: Not only did Los Angeles win this trade, but they did so in a landslide. Dan Haren might be having a bit of a down year but this is a guy whose numbers put him as one of the top 25 pitchers in the league the past 5 years. And during his past two years with the Diamondbacks he was a top 10 pitcher. Now most people might not put him in that elite of a category as he doesn’t have the dominate pitches you usually associate with an ‘ace’, but at worse he is an excellent number 2 starter. What makes him even more valuable is his age and contract. Haren will turn 30 later this year is only due about $4 million the rest of this season, and is under contract for $12.75 a year in both 2011 and 2012. Haren has a very affordable 2013 option at $15.5 which should get picked up, barring some major injury. The Angels acquired a very affordable frontline pitcher for the next 3 and a half years and really didn’t give up anything to do so. They traded more last season for Scott Kazmir who hadn’t been nearly as consistent as Haren. Now the Angels will make a solid run at a playoff berth this year, but are completely set up in their pitching rotation for 2011. All-around this is a great move by the Angels, one that will help them on the field and off, particularly as they look to attract free agents this offseason.

Diamondbacks: I keep looking at this trade and for some reason expect it to get better, but alas it does not. And unless it ends up being 3 PTBNL and they are all top prospects, this is just a bad deal. I have no problem with the Diamondbacks targeting pitching since that is the weakness in their system, though it did severely limit your return from the Angels as their top guys are all hitters. What I do have a problem with is the fact that they have nothing to show for trading their ace. Talk about selling low on a guy, of the 3 prospects the D-backs acquired just one ranked in the top 10 of Keith Law, Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, and that is Skaggs the player to be named later. Skaggs is a good prospect and has pitched well this year in low-A, but there was a couple reasons he ranked on the low end of those top 10 lists. One, he is straight out of High School and while he has pitched well this year, he is probably at least 3 years away. Secondly, while he is projectable, he is far from a sure thing and really only projects as number 3 type of pitcher. Unfortunately for Arizona fans Skaggs is the peak of this deal.

Pat Corbin is a solid prospect and another young left-hander in the midst of a good year in the lower minors. He too is probably about three years away, but he is less of a sure thing, especially when it comes to being in the starting rotation. Rafael Rodriguez is the lone righty and reliever in this deal, but he doesn’t bring much to the table. He should easily make it in the Diamondbacks horrendous bullpen, but will probably never be more than a solid middle reliever at best. From a name standpoint Joe Saunders is the headliner of this deal, but in reality he might be the weakest link. Saunders is a back of the rotation lefty starter, who gives up way too many hits and home runs. His perception and contract are inflated, given the fact that he won 33 games between 2008-2009. While he was pretty good in 2008 he pitched above his head in 2009, and his win totaled was boosted by being on a very good team (and some luck). This year his numbers have gotten worse and his win total has collapsed. What makes things worse for the D-backs is that given his previous win totals Saunders will make probably close to $6 million next season in Arbitration (and even more the year after that). That will significantly eat into the money that the Diamonbacks saved by trading Haren. And what’s worse is that Saunders isn’t worth that much on the open market, but because of P.R. issues they can’t even think of non-tendering him.

This deal was just awful for Arizona as they shouldn’t have taken back any money, much less on a guy like Saunders. Then on top of that the rest of their return wasn’t impressive at all. If I was Arizona I would have insisted on Trevor Reckling be involved in the deal in place of Saunders and a lower pitcher like Trevor Bell or bullpen prospect Jordan Walden to replace Rodriguez. Even then it wouldn’t have been a great deal since there are no sure things, but it would have been a much better return for 3 and a half years of one of the better pitchers in baseball.

Winner: It is not even close the Angels won this deal the moment Trout’s name wasn’t included or it wasn’t for 8 guys. It’s doubtful Los Angeles will ever miss any of these guys, and they set themselves up big time over these next couple of years.

Baseball Roundup

December 15, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Red Sox Agree To Terms with Lackey and Cameron: The Boston Red Sox made two big moves yesterday signing John Lackey, the top starter on the market to a 5-year $85 million deal. After adding another top flight starter, Boston moved quickly to fill their hole in LF by signing OF Mike Cameron to a 2-year $15.5 million deal. I like both moves for the Red Sox and I also liked how they moved quickly to sign these players to fill their needs. Let’s look closer at these deals for a minute, and what it means for the teams involved.

Signing John Lackey was great move for the Red Sox considering their other options for adding a starting pitcher. None of the other top free agent starters were nearly as good as Lackey and all of them are looking at $10 million a year salaries. While I’m not usually a fan of 5-year deals for starting pitchers, Lackey was one of the younger starters on the market and has been reasonably healthy throughout his career. Lackey gives the Red Sox the best rotation in baseball, joining Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Dice-K, Clay Buchholz and Tim Wakefield.

The signing makes even more sense considering the impending 3 team trade involving Seattle-Philadelphia-Toronto, and includes top pitchers Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Yes Halladay might be a better pitcher, but the Red Sox would have to shell out 3-4 top young players and $20 million a year to keep Halladay in the mix. And While the price for Lee (in prospects), might have been cheaper, extending him (which might not be possible) might have been more years or money. Now the Red Sox can have Buchholz and Lackey instead of just Halladay, and they can use their other prospects (and maybe Buchholz as well) to trade for a big bat. Boston does have to give the Angels their first round pick (the Blue Jays now get their 2nd round pick for Marco Scutaro) 29th overall for signing Lackey, but that’s not a big loss. The Red Sox already received the Braves 1st round pick (2oth) for Billy Wagner, and will get an additional 1st or early 2nd round pick for Jason Bay when he signs. In addition the Red Sox get a supplemental 1st round pick for each Bay and Wagner, meaning they will be pretty set when next year’s draft rolls around.

If signing Lackey wasn’t enough Boston made another smart move yesterday by inking Cameron. While Cameron is getting up there in age (36) he’s still been a fairly productive outfielder, and well worth the 2 year $15.5 million dollar investment. Cameron will shift over to LF, but does give the Red Sox plenty of flexibility having him back up Ellsbury in CF (not to mention maybe giving him a few pointers). Cameron loses a little value in moving to LF, but gives them a top notch defender to play balls off the Green Monster. While Cameron’s skills have declined some, he still routinely posts OPS numbers in the .800′s and has hit 20 or more home runs in each of the last 4 seasons (including 2 in San Diego). While he is no longer a threat on the base paths, he is by no means a base clogger. Cameron still has the wheels to take two bases on a single and steal an occasional base. While he might not have the profile of a Bay or Holliday, he signed for half of what they will make next year and for a third of the years it will take to sign them.

The Red Sox couldn’t afford to bring in both a top pitcher and a top hitter, Cameron now gives them a lot of value in the outfield at a very reasonable price. While the offensive numbers may be lower, defensively Cameron should save a lot of runs in the outfield. With Lackey and Cameron on board, the Red Sox will limit their opponents (the Yankees) chances for getting into a slugfest. The moves also keep the Boston farm system in tact to make a move or two at the trade deadline.

Angels Sign WS MVP Matsui: As the Red Sox made two moves the Yankees watched one of their own stars slip away. What makes it even worse, is that he went to another one of their A.L. rivals. The Angels did well signing Hideki Matsui to a one year $6.5 million deal. Matsui on a multi-year deal is a huge risk, he is injury prone, lacks any defensive value, and will be 36 next season. But Matsui at one season, for half of what he made last year is brilliant. When he’s healthy Matsui is a great DH; he hits both lefties and righties very well, offering moderate power and great plate discipline. The Angels need to just keep him out of the field…where he is awful defensively and is more prone to injury. The only downside to this move is it puts Bobby Abreu back out in the field every day, which comes with its own defensive limitations. But it does give Los Angeles depth and a solid offensive core. Between their outfield, 1B and DH, the Angels have 5 players who have 20+ home run power (Abreu is pushing it) and all capable of an .800 plus OPS. Matsui alone doesn’t make up for the losses of Figgins and Lackey that the Angels have suffered, but it does dull the blow a little bit.  Overall its a good move by Los Angeles as they look to finally overcome the Yankees and Red Sox.

Angels and Red Sox Preheat the Stove

November 6, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With the World Series over the offseason begins and baseball’s free agency period begins in two weeks. The Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox got an early start as they look to shape their roster to knock off the Yankees next season. The Angels resigned outfielder Bobby Abreu to a 2-year, $19 million deal. The Red Sox on the other hand looked outside their organization, trading for outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins, for a pair of left-handed minor league pitchers, Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

The Angels move to resign Abreu was pretty smart on their part. Despite being 35, (and 36 when the 2010 season starts) Abreu would have been one of the most coveted hitters on the open market, given his patience and production at the plate. Last season Abreu posted a .293/.390/.435 line (ba/obp/slug), with 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 38 attempts. Abreu is the model of consistency, since 1998, (his first year as a starter) his batting average has never dipped below .283, his on base percentage has always been .370 or higher, and his career slugging percentage is .493. Abreu’s defense has fallen, but his offensive ability still makes him a very productive outfielder. The Angels now have Abreu for at least two more years at $9 million a year. In 2012, they have a $9 million option or a $1 million buyout, guaranteeing Abreu at least $19 million.  Last season Abreu was one of the last free agents to sign, settling for a bargain basement 1 year, $5 million deal, so this was a smart signing for Abreu as well. He may have gotten more money for one year, but he got a second year plus the buyout. On top of that, the option year becomes guaranteed with either 550 plate appearances in 2011 or 1,100 over the next two years. Considering he had over 660 last year, that option will be guaranteed barring some serious injury. The Angels can now focus on their pitching staff, that is in danger of losing ace John Lackey, and their third base spot, where Chone Figgins is a potential free agent.

The Red Sox on the other hand bought themselves some protection in case their top free agent, Jason Bay, decides to move on to greener pastures. Hermida was once a top prospect in the Marlins system, but has never fully capitalized on his potential. He’s been an average defensive outfielder and a solid hitter, but has lacked the power or consistency for a corner outfield spot. 2007 was his best year when he hit .296/.369/.501, but his numbers have dropped since then making him too expensive for the Marlins to offer arbitration too this year, leading to the trade. In reality, he’s not a starter on a playoff caliber team, but there is nothing wrong with the Red Sox hoping that a change of scenery can jump start a young player’s career. Boston should still be looking for a full time replacement for Bay if he leaves, but Hermida could maybe be a platoon option if a starter can’t be found. Hermida hits righties pretty well (though far from spectacular), if Boston can find someone to face lefties, they could still get good production out of left field this season. Hermida is a solid player to have on the bench for Boston, especially when you consider that J.D. Drew has missed at least 22 games in each of his three years with the Red Sox. Given the fact the Red Sox didn’t trade away anything significant I think this is a solid win for Boston, as they look to reshape the roster.

Looking Back on World Series Past:

October 23, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Guest Blogger Bill Shoup:

Even though the final matchup isn’t set yet for the World Series, (although I think the Angels just delayed the inevitable with that dramatic win last night) and since we have to wait 5 more days for this Series to begin, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the World Series histories of the three franchises.  Why?  Well, because I like living in the past.  Speaking of which, being an old-school guy, it bothers me that the World Series isn’t set to begin until October 28th and if it goes 7 games, will finish up on November 5th – or possibly even later if foul weather intervenes. Given the location of the two most likely cities to be participating, one or two rainouts (or even snow outs) are entirely possible.  There’s just something not right about baseball in November.  But anyway, I digress.  Back to the World Series histories of the Yankees, Phillies and Angels.

 The Yankees of course have by far the most impressive history of any major league franchise.  They have won 39 pennants and an astounding 26 World Championships.  Only one other franchise, the St. Louis Cardinals with 10, has double digit World Series wins!  It’s true that the vast majority of those Yankees championships were won before many of you were born (some even pre-date me!).  Nonetheless, you have to wonder how they did what they did.  During a 29 year stretch from 1936 through 1964, there were only 7 years that the Yankees did not appear in the Fall Classic.  They won 16 of their World Championships during that time frame, winning 4 in-a-row at the beginning of that stretch and later running off with 5 in-a-row.  Many people, when they think of the Yankees dominance, assume that Babe Ruth had something to do with many of their World Championships.  But the truth is he wasn’t even a Yankee during that 29 year stretch when the bulk of the championships were won.  There is no question though that the Yankees “mystique” began with the arrival of Ruth in 1920.  In 1921 they made their first of 7 World Series appearances during the Ruth era, winning 4 of those championships.  After the 1964 season, the Yankees had a rough stretch until 1976 when they returned for 3 consecutive appearances, winning the last two of those.  Again, they experienced a long stretch of futility until Joe Torre led them back to the Series in 1996.  They won it that year and then again three years in-a-row starting in 1998.  While the Yankees last championship was in 2000, they did appear in the Series two more times under Torre and made the playoffs in every one of his 12 years with the team. 

 Clearly, the Phillies’ World Series history is not nearly as impressive as the Yankees.  They have only appeared in the Series a total of 6 times and have only won the Series 2 times.  In fact, their first World Championship didn’t come until 1980, led by Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton and Pete Rose.  The Phillies first appeared in the World Series in 1915 and their fans then had to wait 35 years before Robin Roberts and the 1950 Whiz Kids got them back into the Series.  Interestingly, they were swept in that Series by the Yankees.  It would be another 30 years before the Phils showed up in the World Series again.  At least that wait was rewarded with that first Championship ring.  In 1983 the Phillies again made it into the World Series, losing in 5 games to the Baltimore Orioles who were led by Eddie Murray and a young Cal Ripken.  The Phillies next appearance 10 years later also left their fans disappointed when they lost the Series to the Toronto Blue Jays in 6 games, highlighted of course by the dramatic walk-off homerun by Joe Carter in that 6th game.  The Phils next appeared in the Series last year, getting their second World Championship by defeating the Tampa Bay Rays in 5 games.

 The Angels’ World Series “history” consists of one appearance, in 2002, coming 41 years after the franchise was established.  They won the Series that year, beating the San Francisco Giants in 7 games.  They have appeared in the playoffs 9 times over the years.  Of course the one that haunts Angels’ fans is the 1986 League Championship Series.  Up 3 games to 1 against the Boston Red Sox, the Angels were one pitch away from closing out that series and heading to the World Series.  Red Sox outfielder Dave Henderson, batting in the top of the ninth inning with a 2-2 count on him, hit a two-run homer to give the Red Sox a 6-5 lead.  The Angels tied it up in the bottom of the ninth but the Red Sox won it in the eleventh on a Henderson sacrifice fly.  The series then moved back to Boston where the Red Sox took the last two games to move on to the World Series against the Mets.

 So, what do these histories mean as far as this year’s World Series?  Probably nothing.  But for lots of fans, maybe a little something, depending on the matchups.  The Yankees, with their history of excellence and accomplishment, have a fan following that transcends generations and geography.  But that success and the organizational and fan arrogance that evolved from it, also has engendered a large anti-Yankee sentiment.  So there will be those who want the Yankees to lose, in-part because of their storied history.  The Phillies’ history of spotty success could work in their favor in a matchup with the Yankees.  They could be viewed as the underdog, even though they are the reigning World Champs and have what I believe to be the stronger team on paper.  So I could see fans rooting for the Phillies during the Series based on the perceived underdog role.  Of course the flip side of that could occur if, in the unlikely event, the Angels end up coming back to beat the Yankees in the ALCS.  The reigning Champs taking on the franchise that has won only one World Championship in their 48 years of existence.  What better scenario for those that love to root for the underdog?  That’s the matchup that would actually be of any interest to me.  I tend to pull for the underdog if my favorite teams aren’t involved.  Since I’ve never cared for the Yankees and pretty much despise any team from Philly, a Yankees-Phillies matchup would be boring to me since I know that BOTH teams can’t lose.  Oh well, there’s always next year.  Here’s hoping for an Orioles- Nationals World Series in 2010!!