After playing two of the best baseball games I’ve ever seen in Games 2 and 3, last night’s Angels looked completely flat. Going into the game it looked as though the Angels might have a small advantage, with the rumor that Mariano Rivera wouldn’t be available and the fact that CC Sabathia was pitching on short rest. If Rivera truly couldn’t go, (or would be to tired to be effective) and with Joba Chamberlain ineffective this postseason, the Yankees would be at a disadvantage at the back end of their bullpen. The only reliable option they had would be Phil Hughes, who was coming off a multiple inning appearance the night before. All the Angels had to do was get to Sabathia early and keep the game close.  Unfortunately they could barely touch him, as Sabathia scattered five hits over 8 innings pitched, and gave up only one extra base hit. By the time Sabathia left the game, he had a commanding 10-1 lead and the game was pretty much over.

Now the Angels backs are against the wall and are facing elimination. This was supposed to be a close series, but is in serious danger of turning into a rout. The Angels had a chance early on in this series to make a statement and potentially upset the Yankees, but now they are all but defeated. In Game 1 the Angels still couldn’t hit Sabathia, but errors and miscues plagued the Angels and took them out of the game early. Then in game two, which was a thrilling 13th inning struggle, the Angels gave away that game on an error at the end as well. The true fact of the matter is, that game should have never reached extra innings given the number of times the Angels left runners in scoring position. Game 2 was the deciding game for the Angels, had they won that, this would have been a completely different series.

The Angels look like a completely different team than the one that won the A.L. West and swept the Red Sox in the first round. Their defense and pitching have been ineffective, their hitting is nonexistent (with the exception of Kendry Morales), and their speed has pretty much been neutralized. The Yankees have done a brilliant job of playing their game and not being sucked in, trying to play the Angels game. They have Los Angeles completely off-balance right now. I could see the Angels winning tomorrow’s game at home, but I can’t see them pulling off an upset in New York.

Everything seems to be lining up as 2009 being the Year of the Yankees. But before the champagne bottles get popped, New York needs to go through LA (possibly twice if they face the Dodgers in the World Series). The Angels already knocked off one AL East powerhouse.  Can they make it two in a row for the second World Series appearance this decade?

The Yankees like the Red Sox before them, are weak where the Angels are strong; speed, defense, and pitching depth. The Angels speed was a problem for the Yankees during the season when they swiped 17 bases on them. Even though speed is generally undervalued in the new Sabermetric world of baseball, the Angels are so good at it, and that gives them a big advantage. What is mainly ignored in the statistical interpretation of speed is the unquantifiable, the mental impact. When you have a fast runner on base, you are in the pitcher’s, catcher’s and every infielder’s head. It is enough where maybe that pitch isn’t perfect, or the reaction time to a hit ball is a split second slower, because they were focused on the runner (not to mention the defensive implications of holding a runner). The Angels defense is one of the best in the league and will take away a number of hits as long as the Angel pitching staff can keep it in the park. The depth of the Angels pitching staff should not be overlooked. The Yankees are set to start Sabathia on short rest for Game 4, while the Angels will throw Scott Kazmir for the first time in the series. This could affect tonight’s match up between Lackey and Sabathia. Will Girardi pull Sabathia earlier if his pitch count is getting up there, knowing that he has to throw him again in a couple days? Possibly, and having Lackey on a longer leash could be in the Angels best interest. Another thing the Angels pitching depth gives them is options. The Yankees lined up their starters as you would expect Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. The Angels on the other hand have the starting depth to switch up their rotation for the best possible matchups. Instead of using their Game 2 starter from the ALDS, Jered Weaver, a notorious fly ball pitcher, in the home run haven of Yankee Stadium, the Angels are throwing Joe Saunders, a lefty. Saunders has given up his share of homeruns this year, but him being a lefty helps neutralize the short porch in right, by turning around Swisher and Texiera, and making Damon pretty ineffective. The Angels put their pitching staff in the best position to win, and wisely went the matchup route against the formidable Yankees.

The Yankees might not have speed, defense, and pitching depth. But they have three things the Angels lack:  power, all-around talent, and Mariano Rivera. Rivera deserves his own category because he is so good that every team wishes they could clone him. They spend millions of dollars on closers to find someone comparable, but never find anyone as lights out as Rivera. He shortens the game better than any pitcher in the baseball. The Yankees have 9 full innings to score runs to win the game, the Angels have 7 1/3. After that point if the Yankees are leading a close game, Rivera is in and you can’t expect to score again. You may hope for a miracle, but that is likely as far as you will go. The Angels aren’t without their own power hitters, but they don’t compare to the Yankees lineup. Top to bottom they can hit the ball, as they had nine hitters with 13 or more homeruns, including seven with 20 or more. There really isn’t a true “weak part” of that lineup, including an entire infield of All-star caliber talent. As for the running game, I’m beginning to wonder if the decision to have Jose Molina as A.J. Burnett’s personal catcher, had less to do with personal chemistry and more to do with slowing down the Angels running game. Molina is much better than Posada at throwing out base stealers, pairing him up with Burnett helps neutralize the biggest weakness in the Yankees rotation. Sabathia and Pettitte are lefties making them harder to run on (especially Pettitte), but Burnett is someone the Angels could run all day on. Now having Molina in there makes it a little harder for Angels base runners. Whether it was an intended strategy or a happy coincidence the Molina-Burnett pairing should help the Yankees in this series. While I’m not a huge fan of the three man rotation in this series, (if it goes 7 games Sabathia will pitch three times) if anyone can pull it off its the Yankees. Sabathia is a work horse and has gone on short rest before. Though it could bite the Yankees, I think they survive and win this series in six.

Three-fourths of of the two Championship series are already set, and the fourth could be determined today if the Phillies can knock off the Rockies. The World Champion Phillies have the distinction (if they make it to the second round) of being the only team not to sweep their divisional series, as both LA teams and the Yankees advanced quickly to the next round. I don’t think you can chalk it up to a major talent disparity, as the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees were not that much better than their opponents. I think that may be why the Yanks swept, but not the other two series. I think what we saw in these matchups was the importance of momentum. Its something that we always hear about in sports, but one of the hardest things to quantify. But three playoff sweeps are the perfect example for how momentum can kill you.

Now to be fair, the better team, and the team with home field advantage came out ahead in every series. With the exception of the Yankees-Twins matchup, no one really thought these games would would go by so quickly. The Dodgers were the better team, but the Cards had some mega talent on their roster. It was a series that could go either way, and would likely go the full five games. It lasted just three games, because in game two with the Cardinals in perfect position to even up the series 1-1 before heading back to St. Louis, OF Matt Holliday made a critical error that allowed the Dodgers to come back to win the game. The Cards had no chance in Game 3 at home, after literally watching the series slip through their (Holliday’s) hands.

The Red Sox vs. Angels series was another one where the Angels had the advantages on paper, but the Red Sox were favored given their vaunted lineup, vast playoff experience, and the Fenway Faithful giving the Sox a huge advantage in games three and four. Well the Angels shut down the the Sox lineup in the first two games, holding them to just eight hits, including only two extra base hits (neither of which was a home run). Up 2-0 in the series the Angels took away another advantage the Red Sox had by ensuring the series had to come back to Anaheim if Boston hoped to win it. If the Red Sox went back to Boston tied 1-1, their home field advantage for games three and four could have given them the momentum to win the series. Instead being down 2-0 left them in a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of. The Red Sox did hit a little better (seven hits, two extra base hits, including a home run) scoring six runs, compared to the single run they managed in the first two games. That extra offense wasn’t enough as the bullpen got touched up for five runs in the final two innings. In watching the game you just see that despite being down by three runs entering the 8th inning, the Angels showed no sign of panic. They knew they could win that game and finish the series right there in Boston.

Now the least surprising sweep was by far the Yankees over the Twins. Minnesota was coming off a 12 inning game to just get into the playoffs, and were a team without their second best hitter and their best pitcher. They had just about no chance to knock off the Yankees and all their top baseball talent. And even though it was one of the worst calls I’ve ever seen in game (especially with the ump down the line) the Joe Mauer foul call in Game 2 did not change the outcome of the series (though probably changed the outcome of the game). Even if the Twins win that game, they would have been overmatched and unable to win two of the last three games. I maybe could have seen them winning one more at home, but even that was a stretch. The biggest thing with that call was that it visibly took the wind out of the Twins sails, in that game (bases loaded no outs and you can’t get a run) and yesterday at home (4-1 loss).

In all three matchups we saw the importance of grabbing that important 2-0 series lead, before you head out on the road. Hopefully from a baseball fan’s perspective, the Championship round and the World Series are a bit more exciting than the first round has been (Sorry Rockies fans I don’t see them overcoming the Phillies). Baseball could use some good drama in October, especially since all we have left are the big market teams.

Though only two days into the postseason, we’ve already had our share of surprises. In the American League, both series have only gone one game, and while the Yankees first game went as expected, the Red Sox performance last night raised some eyebrows. If the Yankees had not crushed the Twins on Wednesday evening it would have been a major disappointment. Regardless of the fact that the Yankees are the better team to begin with, Minnesota was coming off their one game extra inning playoff with the Tigers the night before, on top of that it was CC Sabathia facing off against Brian Duensing. The Yankees are right where they should be in this postseason, their AL East counterparts on the other hand are not. The Boston Red Sox got blanked by the Anaheim Angels 5-0. Now a John Lackey-John Lester matchup in LA is one that favors the Angels, so its not surprising that they won. What is surprising is the score, or lack there of by the Red Sox. In six postseason games this year, the Red Sox are the only team not to score. Boston is not a team that can win 2-1 or 3-2 games this postseason, their pitching is no better than solid and their defense is suspect. They are built to out hit their opponent, except it didn’t show last night when they only managed four hits (all singles). If the Boston bats don’t awaken soon then Anaheim will cruise to the second round.

In the National League each series has gone two games and each has had its own surprises. The Dodgers are up 2-0 and look to go for the sweep Saturday evening in St. Louis. Look I like the Dodgers as much as anyone, and have been among their biggest supporters of their postseason aspirations, but not even I thought they were going to be up 2-0. The Cardinals were a number of analysts’ World Series pick from the NL, and seemed destined to steal a game in LA with Carpenter and Wainwright pitching the first two games. The fact that the Dodgers already beat the two best pitchers in the entire NL playoffs (Wainwright didn’t get the loss, as Matt Holliday the bullpen blew last nights game), bodes well for the rest of the October in LA. Now the Cards are reeling, even if they can win game 3 they will need to rely on John Smoltz or Kyle Loshe in a deciding Game 4…ouch. Theoretically they could bring Chris Carpenter back on short rest, but he didn’t look sharp in Game 1 (105 pitches in five innings, giving up four runs on nine hits) on regular rest I’m not sure how he’ll respond when he’s less fresh. Wainwright was lights out, but he isn’t going on two days rest for Game 4 if they get there (though don’t be surprised to see him come in out of the bullpen if its close). The other NL series is just as surprising. The World Champion Phillies were the team I thought that would be up 2-0 in their series over the Rockies. Instead the Rockies touched up ace Cole Hamels for seven hits and four runs in five innings yesterday to even the series up 1-1. Now I thought the Rockies would win at least one game in this series, but I thought it would be in Colorado, and not against Hamels. The Phillies needed to jump out to a series lead before the games went back to Colorado given the precarious state of their bullpen. Now the pressure is on the Phillies to win on the road to keep their hope for a repeat title alive.

So what do you guys think, have the early returns changed anyone’s postseason predictions?