By Guest Blogger Brian Murphy:

I will be covering the Southwest bracket throughout the tournament and I will start off with two blogs on why Kansas and why Notre Dame will win the bracket.  Let’s first start with Kansas.

Obviously, as the #1 seed, Kansas is the favorite to come out of the Southwest bracket to the Final Four.  The Jayhawks had an incredible regular season with a record of 32-2 (14-2 in the Big 12).  Led by the Morris borthers, Kansas is the #2 team in the country and a very trendy pick to win it all.

I don’t see Kansas struggling with an opponent in the first two rounds of their bracket as they open up against the 16 seed Boston U and then either UNLV or Illinois in the second round.  The Sweet 16 match-up that I think will give the Jayhawks the most trouble is Louisville.  The Cardinals have been playing hot of late and come from the infamous Big East.  Kansas has not played a team in the Big East this season, so it should be interesting to see how they stack up.

A date with most likely the 2-seed Notre Dame or 3-seed Purdue will be the last roadblock for Kansas to win the Southwest Bracket.  I think the Jayhawks would have no trouble with Purdue.  Marcus and Markieff Morris would be too much to handle for the Boilermakers.  Kansas played one team from the Big Ten early this year, Michigan, and won in overtime.  Notre Dame will be a much tougher match-up for Kansas because they are a veteran team that can play some great defense.  Kansas is 5th in the NCAA in PPG at 82.4 and 1st in FG percentage at 51.4%.  Their offensive firepower and experience of the NCAA Tournament will be too much to handle for the other teams in the Southwest Bracket.

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Easiest Road For A Number 1 seed: Tie, Kansas and Duke-

I think overall Duke and Kansas have the best brackets to propel them into the Final Four. Neither team should face much of a challenge as they advance through their bracket, and in fact I think in both cases they only have one real challenge facing them.

For Duke that challenge will come in the Sweet 16 as Texas is a team capable of matching up well with them. If they get past Texas neither of their two likely Elite 8 matchups, really scares me. UConn is a very good young team, but they are really a one man show, which I think Duke can handle. On top of that the Huskies just won 5 games in 5 days, including the last four against ranked opponents, to win the Big East Tournament. While that was an incredible feat, it might leave themselves worn down for an early exit. And although I consider San Diego State a very good team, I don’t know if they can matchup with Duke’s shooting ability.

For Kansas, their challenge probably won’t come until their Elite 8 matchup with likely Notre Dame. Notre Dame made a strong case for a potential number 1 seed, and are no doubt a dangerous team with their defense and slow tempo offense. The problem is I think Kansas is one of the better teams equipped to deal with them. Kansas is very deep and experienced so I think that will play into it. Also, they aren’t an outside shooting team, so if they can get the ball into the Morris Twins, Notre Dame can’t match up.

Hardest Road To The Final Four: Ohio State

I know Ohio State is supposed to be the number 1 overall seed, but it sure doesn’t seem like they are. Their 2nd round matchup is dangerous no matter who they face. George Mason has shown before what happens when you take them too lightly. Mason doesn’t have the greatest size and speed, but then again neither do the Buckeyes. Mason plays great team basketball, and have a couple excellent shooters. Villanova on the other hand looks like an easier opponent, b/c they only finished .500 in conference play, and have lost their last 5 straight, but I wouldn’t count them out. They have good veteran talent, and a very good starting 5, with three talented guards and two big men. They have a fairly weak bench, especially among their bigs, but if they aren’t in foul trouble they are dangerous. Either game could be a major hurdle for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s road doesn’t get any easier as both their Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups look pretty difficult. In the Sweet 16, they will either face Kentucky or WVU, two teams with talent and very good coaching. Both have some flaws, but are real threats to Ohio State. In the Elite 8, both UNC and Syracuse are talented, balanced teams that can upset Ohio State.

Tough But Doable Path To the Final Four: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have some tough matchups, but overall the path is doable for them. They could face a battle in round two against either last year’s Cinderella, Butlter, or Old Dominion. ODU also has the advantage of playing very close to home, so they should have a favorable crowd. While Pitt is better than either of those teams, they aren’t going to just flat out dominate them. In the Sweet 16 the Panthers could face a Kansas State team, that knocked off Kansas or a Wisconsin team that beat Ohio State. At the same time though there is such parity in this bracket that both of those teams could end up losing to either Utah State or Belmont, who are legit Cinderella team’s in their own right. In the bottom of the bracket, 2 seed Florida is a bit overseeded, but they do possess some serious future NBA talent on that roster. Three seed BYU, could be a bit short-handed, but when you have the game’s best scorer, you can never be counted out. Also, don’t forget that one of Pitt’s few losses came at the hands of 6th seed St. John’s. St. John’s is an inside/outside team with a great coach and a lot of veterans. They have a bit of an uphill climb, but they are talented to make a run.

Kansas’ Reign At The Top Could Be Short Lived:

The Jayhawks were just named the number one team in the nation, but that didn’t stop Kansas State from absolutely dominating them last night. Kansas had no answer for the Wildcats guard Jacob Pullen, who had 38 points. The Jayhawks will probably fall pretty far in the polls for two reasons. One, the Wildcats owned them the entire night and beat them by 16 points. This wasn’t some close lose in the final minutes of the game, but rather an overall shellacking. The second thing that is going to hurt Kansas is the fact that Kansas State isn’t even ranked right now. Now there is little doubt that K-State has some talent, they just haven’t been able to put it together this season, and had gotten beaten up in conference play. Now though the Wildcats upset their in-state rival, and gave themselves a signature win to build on for a possible tournament bid.

Franchise Tags Start Coming Out:

Both the Patriots and the Eagles have already used their franchise tags, and the Jets may not be too far behind. The Patriots struck first as they placed the tag of All-Pro guard Logan Mankins. Despite their usually being a different pay scale, for the purpose of franchise tags the salary of the top 5 offensive linemen are taken into the average, regardless of position. The Eagles did the expected and tagged Michael Vick, who will now come with more than a $16 million price tag. Now these were no brainer decisions, as neither the Patriots or the Eagles wanted to let these guys walk, and now they ensure that they control these players rights. With Vick now being formally tagged, you can pretty much guarantee that Kevin Kolb will be traded this offseason (when the new CBA is signed). The Jets case is a bit more interesting.

The Jets appear close to tagging inside linebacker David Harris. While there was a good bit of speculation surrounding the Jets tagging Harris, it also ensures both of the Jets top receivers, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards, will be unrestricted free agents. While Harris is a key member of the defense, Holmes and Edwards are a very good starting combo for the Jets. Considering how ‘streaky’ (to put it nicely) quarterback Mark Sanchez has been, New York can’t afford to watch both of their receivers walk. Even losing one of them would be a major blow to the Jets passing attack, which means New York will have to scramble to lock them up when the new CBA is signed.

1 Kansas Jayhawks:

Kansas is the best team in the country and my pick to win the entire tournament. They have a good balance of veteran players like Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich (who also make up a great point guard-center combo) with young studs like Xavier Henry and Tyshawn Taylor. They can score from the inside and outside and do an excellent job on the defensive end. Kansas is also a very deep team, the Morris brothers give them size inside and Morningstar and Reed give them depth on the perimeter.

The Jawhawks have been close for a number of years now, but this could be the year they go all the way. They have a tough overall bracket to get through, but have the size and talent to do so. In an ironic twist, the Jayhawks lost only two games all season, and both of those teams (Tennessee and Oklahoma State) are somehow in their region. Kansas will have no trouble in Round 1 and easily knock off 16 Leigh.

2 Ohio State:

The Buckeyes have the best player in the nation in G-F Evan Turner, and he should lead them on good tournament run. Turner reminds me a lot of Dwyane Wade, and will need to carry Ohio State on his back like Wade did for Marquette in 2003. Ohio State has some good secondary pieces around Turner, in guards Buford, Lighty, and Diebler, but none of them can take over a game to take the pressure off Turner. If another team can find a way to slow down Turner, than Ohio State is in trouble. If Turner can be a weapon, then he sets up everyone else and makes them all better.

Ohio State’s biggest problem is their lack of size. While their guards have excellent size for guards they are all really guards, with ET being the lone exception. Turner can play just about anything, he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, and is the 2nd leading shot blocker. That lack of size and interior presence will present problems for Ohio State as the tournament progresses. Right now though they are an easy favorite over UC Santa Barbra.

Rest of the Match-ups:

3 Georgetown over 14 Ohio:  Georgetown lost some head scratchers this season, but also won some big games. Talent is never the Hoyas problem, staying in their game and playing consistent basketball is. Hoyas should have no problems knocking off Ohio and head into the 2nd round.

4 Maryland over 13 Houston:  Maryland might not have played in as dominate of a conference as the ACC has been in the past, but they were easily the 2nd best team and faced their share of high level competition. While the Terps lack the overall team to go deep into this tournament, they will win this game easily.

5 Michigan State over New Mexico State:  Usually the 5-12 match up is one where we see some upsets, but don’t look for it in this region. The Spartans were last year’s runner-up and have the experience and talent to do some damage in the first few rounds. Michigan State usually plays their best basketball come March, and I’d expect the same thing this year.

6 Tennessee over 11 San Diego State:  This game is an upset favorite for a lot of people out there, but I think Tennessee can win this game. It will be a tough match-up, but I like the Volunteers. Tennessee is a team that beat not only Kansas this year, but Kentucky as well, so you know they have the talent to play with anyone. I also don’t see Bruce Pearl losing in the first round of the Tournament, he’s too good of a coach and gets the most out of his players.

7 Oklahoma State over 10 Georgia Tech:  This is another game people are looking at for an upset, but I like the Cowboys over the Yellow Jackets in this one. Georgia Tech has some great talent on their roster, including a few guys who will be playing in the NBA next season, but they don’t play well enough as a team for me to give them the nod in this game. Tech is far too inconsistent and gives up way too many points from the perimeter. That 2nd issue will come back to haunt them in this game because OK State lives on the 3-point line. James Anderson is one of the most underrated players in the country and a fantastic scorer. He will give the Jackets more than they can handle and send the Cowboys into the 2nd round.

8 UNLV over 9 Northern Iowa:  Yes, that’s right, I don’t believe a single low seed will advance past the first round. UNLV isn’t a great team, but they have enough to hold off a fun Northern Iowa squad. I look for this game to be close, but UNLV to have too much size and strength for Northern Iowa to handle.

I know Kansas is the number one overall seed, but my question is does the selection committee know that? I ask because I feel the Jayhawks might have the toughest road to the Championship game of any 1 seed. Kansas should cruise in the first two rounds, but in the Sweet 16 they will face a likely match up against either (4) Maryland or (5) Michigan State. That is by far the toughest 4 or 5 match ups in any of the regions. Looking ahead further their Elite 8 match up will be likely against either Ohio State or Georgetown, which I think you can make a strong case being the best 2-3 seed combo in the regions as well. Probably the only advantage for Kansas is that the bottom of the bracket is probably the toughest you find, and it is quite possible that neither Ohio St. or Georgetown make it to the Elite 8. (6) Tennessee, (7) Oklahoma St., and (10) Georgia Tech all have the talent to make a serious run in the bottom of that bracket.

If Kansas has the hardest road, Duke by far has the easiest path to the Final Four. If they don’t make it to the Elite 8, Duke should just stop playing basketball because they don’t deserve to be in Division 1 if they can’t succeed in the cakewalk of a region they have. First, they got placed in the South, where they should have a good bit of support. Secondly they having nothing in front of them for the first 3 rounds. In the 2nd round they will face either (8) California or (9) Louisville. Cal doesn’t have any impressive wins this season, they lost to top teams, and beat the teams they were supposed to. While they did win the Pac-10 regular season, the Conference was extremely down this year, giving little credence to the belief they can be a threat to Duke. Louisville was able to stay somewhat competitive in the ultra-tough Big East, but with the exception of their two wins against Syracuse, they weren’t able to beat any team that was better than them. They did take a number of teams down to the wire, but weren’t able to close out games. Unfortunately for them they lack the upper-level talent to beat Duke. On paper Duke should have a tough Sweet 16 match up with (4) Purdue (seriously Texas A&M does not impress me as a 5 seed, I think they are completely overrated), but Purdue is really hurting with the loss of star Robbie Hummel. I’m guessing they don’t make it to the Sweet 16 without him, and it wouldn’t shock me if (12) Utah State is Duke’s opponent in the Sweet 16.

Luckily there is some real talent in the bottom of the region, so Duke doesn’t have a coronation into the Final Four. Either (2) Villanova or (3) Baylor should be able to overcome the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight if they make it that far. Both are better all-around teams that should give Duke plenty of problems. Even if there is an upset and one of the lower seeds come out of the bottom of that region, Duke will have a solid opponent. I think (11) Old Dominion, (7) Richmond, and (6) Notre Dame could make a serious run in the region. Overall though Duke really lucked out with their region, they should be well rested by the time they make the Elite Eight, which could be a major advantage.

All-in-all the tournament looks exciting with a number of great match-ups. My one gripe is the omission of Mississippi State. Now I realize you can’t judge a team solely by their Conference Tournament performance, but I think Mississippi State was very deserving of a bid. This team was one-tenth of a second away from earning an automatic bid, and instead has to settle for a 1 seed in the NIT. They took the best team in the nation down to the wire, on a “neutral” court (I think Kentucky fans out numbered Bulldog fans 20-1). And on the way to facing Kentucky, they knocked off Vanderbilt (a ranked team and a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament), and Florida (a bubble team that they should have taken the place of). Now I know they had some bad losses on their schedule, but the Bulldogs can play, and its hard for me to see a team like Florida or Minnesota make it over them. Minnesota seemingly made it because of their tournament run where they knocked off Michigan State and Purdue. But the difference is Purdue was without their best player, and in the Championship game Minnesota lost by almost 30 points against Ohio State. While Ohio State is the 5th or 6th best team in the country they aren’t as good as Kentucky, whom Mississippi State came so close to beating.

What are your thoughts–who was snubbed and who is overranked?

Both number 1 ranked Kansas and number 2 ranked Kentucky lost yesterday which not only shakes up the brackets, but adds a bit of intrigue to the final week of the NCAA regular season. The door is wide open for Syracuse to be the top ranked team in the country and go into the tournament with the easiest road. You also have to feel for Purdue, who just lost their best player, Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season. Its hard to see them capitalizing on their opportunity without Hummel in the lineup. Beyond the new look Top 25, there is quite a bit of irony and interest that Kansas (KU) and Kentucky (UK) both lost on the same day.

Kansas and Kentucky have been linked together for some time, both are predominate basketball schools, that year in year out have permanent homes in the Top 25. This season not only were KU and UK ranked 1 and 2, but with the exception of 2 weeks one or the other has been the top ranked team this entire season (mainly KU). Kansas has never been ranked lower than 3rd at any point this year, and Kentucky has always been in the top 5 as well. Now both are teetering in that range again, and could see their number 1 seeds slip away if they stumble again before the year is out or have an early exit in their conference tournament. Both KU and UK have lost to one ranked opponent and one unranked opponent. And for both of them that ranked opponent was the Tennessee Volunteers.

While these losses are a body blow to each team, I wouldn’t worry too much. Kansas has a tough matchup with K-State, but if they get past them they should be fine. I expect both teams to be number 1 seeds, and it wouldn’t shock me in the least to see either one cutting down the nets in early April.

NFL:

Coaching Change in Buffalo:

Buffalo Bills head coach former head coach Dick Jauron is the first coach to get the ax, getting fired on Tuesday. This move had been rumored for weeks, so it doesn’t come as a huge surprise. But it is interesting when you see that six teams have records worse than Bills 3-6, and three other teams are tied for the same record. Buffalo doesn’t usually have the persona of a team who makes bold moves during the season, but maybe this is a sign of things to come in Buffalo. What I do find interesting is, if the Bills had upset the Patriots in Week 1, would Jauron have been fired? And the only answer I think is fair is, that beating New England would have saved his job now. But this Bills team is so bad that Jauron would have to be gone at the end of the season.

Larry Johnson Finds a Home:

The Cincinnati Bengals signed troubled running back Larry Johnson. Now I know the first reaction of many is “big surprise”, considering the issues surrounding many current and former Bengals. Cincinnati is a team that doesn’t alway put character first, and over the years has had its share of locker room issues. And one could arise with Johnson if he isn’t content on being the back-up running back. As long at the Bengals keep winning, I feel as though the situation won’t cause a problem. But if they lose and Benson wasn’t producing, how long will it be before Johnson puts his foot in his mouth again? While I think there is a serious reservation with signing Johnson, the Bengals had to add another running back with experience. Benson is leading the league in carries, and his top back-up is a rookie 6th round pick (Bernard Scott). Cincinnati will need to start limiting Benson’s load late in games to keep his legs fresh for a deep playoff run. Only time will tell if the good will outweigh the bad, with the signing of Johnson.

NCAAB:

Top 25 Surviving Early Upset Bids:

Just one day after freshman point guard John Wall saved No. 5 Kentucky with a last second shot, three other top 25 teams were taken down to the wire. No. 1 Kansas held their breath as Memphis’ Elliot Williams 3-pointer at the buzzer hit off the rim, giving Kansas the 57-55 win, and keeping them atop the polls. Their closest competition also faced a scare and No. 2 Michigan State was taken down to the wire by the unranked Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Bulldogs actually had a five point lead at half, and were still up by four with 4:48 on the clock, but could not close out Michigan State on the road. The Spartans controlled the last 5 minutes of the game, and Gonzaga’s youth and inexperience came to light with some bad shots and decisions down the stretch. Top 5 teams weren’t the only ones facing upset bids, as No. 20 Georgetown were able to outlast the Temple Owls during their home opener (despite their best efforts to give them the game). The Hoyas were struggling to find their rhythm all game, and led the Owls just 19-13 at halftime. Temple stormed back in the second half, but Georgetown took the lead for good with Greg Monroe’s basket with six seconds remaining.