After reading MLBTR’s discussion last night regarding Billy Butler, I came away thinking that he would be a great fit for the Baltimore Orioles (though lets be honest he’d be a great fit for just about every team in baseball). With his impressive hit tool, he would be a perfect compliment to the more free swinging Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy, who were already acquired via trade this offseason. Butler would balance out the strikeouts and add an another bat*(editor’s note: Originally I wrote that he was a LH hitter, sorry for the mistake) to a fairly potent, yet underrated lineup. While the Orioles could end up just signing either Adam LaRoche or Derek Lee, Butler could be the impact hitter they have chased this off season. The Orioles don’t have a long term answer at 1B, and although Butler isn’t a great defender, he is a better option than anything the Orioles have.

Now two problems with any Oriole trade attempt would be their lack of top end talent in their farm system and their unwillingness to trade any of their top end pitchers. That 2nd issue might not be too much of a problem for the Royals since they are stocked deep with (everything) front-end pitching prospects. The Orioles could provide an interesting package of both major league and minor league positional players. There might not be any true ‘stars’ in the mix, but there should be enough young, upside, controllable talent to intrigue the Royals. Here is a 5 player package that might land Butler:

Felix Pie: Pie is a streaky player and by no means a star, but he is still a young controllable outfielder who can play any OF spot. He doesn’t offer much power, but he does have a line-drive stroke that could translate into 10-15 HR’s and a high number of doubles. He can offer good insurance for CF if newly acquired Lorenzo Cain fails or shows he’s not ready. He can also play LF in case the Royals move Alex Gordon, or maybe they can shift him over to RF (or even DH with Butler’s departure). Pie has 3 years of team control remaining, but shouldn’t cost too much in arbitration. He will help bridge the gap until the Royals top prospect depth is ready.

Josh Bell: Bell was once considered the Orioles third baseman of the future, but with the Mark Reynolds trade he is now more expendable. His first taste of the majors didn’t go quite as planned, but he still has a bright major league future. He won’t hit for a high average, but he possesses big time power, and should hit for 30+ home runs down the road. Although the Royals have uber-prospect Mike Moustakas almost ready at the hot corner, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to invest in Bell as well. Neither is considered great defensively, so whichever is worse can move to DH and still be a big time bat in the Royals lineup. Bell still has 6 years of team control remaining, and could give Kansas City at least one bat in their lineup while they wait for their top prospects to arrive.

Xavier Avery: If there is one thing the Royals truly lack in their system it is center field depth. While Pie and Lorenzo Cain would help fill that void, Avery could very well be the real longterm answer in center. Avery is still raw as a player, but his tools and upside make him a very good prospect. He is still two full years away, but that works out well for Kansas City since it gives them time to evaluate Cain for their long term answer in CF. If Cain works out, then having a young talented CF prospect who is blocked, is far from the worst thing to have when trying to make a trade.

Mycal Givens: Givens is a very promising young infield prospect in an Orioles system filled with young infield prospects. Givens projects as either a SS or 2B with good offensive and defensive skills. He is the type of guy who could develop into a quality number 2 hitter in the big leagues. He will need 3-4 years to develop, but the upside and potential are there. Being that far away from the majors actually could be a plus for the Royals as it will give them time to evaluate their upper middle infield prospects. Also, with so many of their top guys ready in the next year or two, Givens can help restock their lower minors depth and extend the Royals bright future. The last thing Kansas City wants is to have all their prospects graduate to the majors, with no minor league depth behind them. Givens will help give the Royals options for the future and if they are patient he should reach his potential.

Caleb Joseph: To call 2010 a down year for Joseph would be a gross understatement as he was awful in his first year of AA. Prior to that year Joesph projected as a future above average starting catcher, with good offensive skills and solid defensive potential. Joseph failed to display any of that last season when his average tanked and his defense was below average. Although he struggled mightily, Joseph is not without his prospect value and could be a nice find as a 5th piece of a trade. Joseph could be a good bounce back candidate, and in limited work in the AFL (41 AB’s), he posted a line of .390/.438/.512. Those numbers are obviously inflated, but it does give some hope that Joseph could be back on track this season.

Analysis: Bell, Avery and Givens would give the Royals three high upside young players, who all have one flaw keeping them away from being a top prospect. At the same time Bell and Pie help bridge the gap for the Royals offensively this season as they wait for all their top prospects to arrive. In addition, they help give Kansas City options to potentially make another deal if Alex Gordon proves he can hit this season. Joesph, helps fill a depth need, and if he gets on track could be a solid starting catcher for the Royals in a couple of years. There isn’t a Top 50 prospect (player) in the bunch, but my guess is Butler’s lack of 30 HR power and limited defense will keep them from landing a really great prospect. It would be a significant return for the Royals, one that I’m sure Oriole fans will hate to see, but it makes sense for Baltimore. While the loss of all those players may sting, none are truly prohibitive and the Orioles would add a true impact bat.

With baseball’s Winter Meetings starting next week and X-mas just around the corner, I thought it was a good time to look at what is on every team’s wish list this December. If a team is expected to make any significant signings or trades I’ll feature them. But if they are likely sitting on the sidelines this winter, then they only have three wishes: good health, development by their prospects, and bargain shopping in 2011 before the season starts.

First up American League:

AL East:

New York Yankees:

Cliff Lee: There is little surprise on what tops their wish list, as landing an ace starting pitcher is their top priority.Lee is really the only guy available who fits the bill. New York needs to hope their money and winning reputation sway Lee away from his other suitors.

Derek Jeter: The Yankees negotiations with their ‘Captain’ haven’t been too pretty and have in fact served as more of a distraction than anything else. The Yankees need Jeter to come to his senses quickly and sign his deal, before it looks any worse than it already is.

A.J. Burnett: New York invested big money into Burnett two years ago and already they are regretting their decision. Burnett needs to figure out his issues quick, as he can’t afford to start off the season badly. Not only will it hurt the Yankees playoff hopes, but a bad start will doom him in New York, meaning the Yankees may have to eat his contract just to appease the fans.

Boston Red Sox:

Crawford or Werth: Boston is in hot pursuit of the top two free agent outfielders and they need to land one if the Yankees make a big move (i.e. signing Lee). Either OF will fit in well in Boston and continue to make that lineup one of the best in the league.

Gonzalez or Fielder: While it is a bit quite of late, I still think the Red Sox will end up with either Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder from the trade market this offseason. Both are impending free agents and likely to be dealt by their current team. Gonzalez is a better fit for Boston given his defense, and higher likelihood of negotiating a more team friendly extension. If Boston lands one of them, plus one of the top outfielders, they should pass the Yankees for the best lineup in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Trade Jason Bartlett: This could happen in the next few days, as Tampa does not want to pay Bartlett’s arbitration salary this coming season. While Bartlett won’t bring back a major haul, they should expect to get back a solid middle reliever, who is young and cost controlled.

Rebuild Their Bullpen: The Rays have a number of free agent defections from their bullpen and given their budget, they will likely have to build from within or through trades. In addition to the likelihood of  a Bartlett for middle reliever swap, I’d look for Tampa to make a bigger deal with their considerable prospect depth to add a back of the bullpen arm.

Add a Quality Bat: With holes at 1B, LF (could be filled by rookie Desmond Jennings) and DH, the Rays could use at least one bat to keep them on the cusp of contention. Since the free agent market is likely too expensive, the Rays will likely look for a bat on the trade market. I would count them out of the Gonzalez/Fielder markets given their salary price tags, and what it would cost in terms of prospects. Names like Billy Butler, Josh Willingham, Luke Scott could all be on their radar this offseason.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Make a Splash: The Blue Jays might be rebuilding, but this team was competitive without any of their top prospects making a significant impact. I think Toronto will make a bold move such as trading for Greinke or Justin Upton (Billy Butler could be on their wish list as well). Trading for a star caliber player could really make this team a threat in the East, though I don’t think they should give up too much in the way of young talent.

Find a First Baseman: While Adam Lind is a distinct internal possibility, I would expect the Jays to find a new first baseman for next season. Trading for Billy Butler should be high on their list, but if they decide to move some of their young talent for a different star, the Blue Jays still have options on the free agent market (though they are dwindling fast). Adam LaRoche or Derek Lee would be good fits in Toronto, as could Carlos Pena if they expect a bounce back year.

Add a 3B/2B: Right now the Jays have a hole at 3B that they could fill by moving 2B Aaron Hill there, but that would only create an issue up the middle. The free agent market won’t yield any great 3B (unless they buck up to sign Beltre), so a trade could be an option. They could also look to bring back Orlando Hudson to fill 2B and move Hill over. Hudson wouldn’t be a long term fix, but he’d be a solid short term addition.

Add some relievers: The Jays are losing a couple quality relievers in the free agent market and will either need to add some arms via trade or from the market. Given their young staff, and the likely ascension of some young prospects, they could use a good bullpen to help protect their young arms.

Baltimore Orioles:

Add a 1B/DH bat: The O’s have struck out with two of their top free agent options, Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn so far this offseason and they are likely to miss out on another one, as Paul Konerko is likely to resign with the White Sox. The 1B/DH market is drying up fast with Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena, Derek Lee and Lance Berkman the only real options left. The O’s need to land one of them, but at this point they need to make sure they aren’t overpaying, since none of them are true stars. Baltimore should look to focus their money on their other needs such as 3B.

Go Hard After Adrian Beltre: At this point the O’s are going to have to overpay to land a star, and Beltre is probably the best chance the O’s have at landing one. Now they aren’t alone in the market and it will cost quite a bit, but Beltre could be worth it. He is a very good defender at 3B, and at 32 should be productive for another couple of years. It still could be a pipe dream, but Baltimore needs to be aggressive.

Add Some Relief Pitching: The Orioles have a promising young staff, but their bullpen was a mess last year. They need to add a couple free agent arms to turn that into a strength and help protect their rotation.

Add a Shortstop: It is not a good year to be needing a shortstop, but the Orioles need to find someway to get better production out of that position. Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy head their list, but other options could become available. Who ever they find, Baltimore needs to ensure they offer some production from that area.

AL Central:

Chicago White Sox:

Bring Back Konerko: With the addition of Adam Dunn, the White Sox finally have the hitter who can help protect Paul Konerko in the middle of the lineup. Now they just need to ensure Konerko is in that lineup. I fully expect a deal to get done in the next couple of days, which will fully cover their DH/1B positions.

Find a LF: I know a lot of people like Juan Pierre for his speed and defense, but he is a bit of a liability in LF. He just doesn’t get on base enough or have any power to speak of to justify a corner outfield spot. While his defense was exceptional in LF, you have to get better than a .312 wOBA from your LF if you want to be a contender. There aren’t any real free agent options available, but don’t be shocked if the White Sox target someone like Josh Willingham or Luke Scott. Alex Gordon could also be an option if they go for a more unproven player.

Add Relief Pitching: In their pursuit for adding Dunn and Konerko, the White Sox made a tough choice by releasing long time closer Bobby Jenks to save some money. While fiscally it makes some sense, it leaves that bullpen a little short right now. A couple relievers should be acquired by trade or through free agency to help offset the loss.

Kansas City Royals:

Make the Best Deal(s) Possible: The Royals are in an enviable position with the best farm system in baseball, and a number of quality trade-able pieces. The Royals have the best SP (Greinke), Closer (Joakim Soria) and one of the top bats (Butler) on the trade market. In addition to their big names, the Royals have Alex Gordon and Robinson Tejada, who are both good 2nd tier trade targets. Now I wouldn’t expect to see all 5 dealt before the start of the season, but at least 2 should be moved by then, and all of them could be gone by the start of 2012. The Royals need to make the best trades possible and should target middle infield help, outfielders (in particular center fielders), frontline starting pitching, and maybe a 3B. Kansas City can basically name their own price.

Detroit Tigers:

The Tigers have already done most of their heavy lifting this offseason, with Victor Martinez their top prize. I don’t think they are done just yet, but they might not make any more major moves. If they do here is what they might target:

OF help: The Tigers are rumored to still be in the Werth and Crawford sweepstakes, but I’m not too sure they can swing a deal. My guess is they will look to the trade market for a quality OF bat (usual suspects, Willingham, Scott etc.) to fill their need.

Relief Pitching: They have already added Benoit, but my guess is they add another solid arm before the start of the season. I don’t see them adding a starter, but I think their staff could use some help.

Minnesota Twins:

The Twins aren’t supposed to be too active this offseason beyond resigning Jim Thome and agreeing to a deal with the Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who can play either SS or 2B. The Twins could be trading J.J. Hardy, though that is far from being set in stone. The one thing the Twins could be looking at is making a big trade:

Make a Splash: In back-to-back years the Twins have gotten swept out of the Playoffs by the New York Yankees, so they need to find a way to get better if they want to advance further in 2011. The Twins have a quality system, so they do have the pieces to swing a major deal or two. Given their depth across the board, they could target any number of positions. Starting pitching is a top priority, but I don’t see them getting in the Greinke sweepstakes (more because I really don’t see the Royals trading him in the division unless the Twins vastly overpay).

Cleveland Indians:

Cleveland falls into the category of teams who are really not expected to do anything significant this offseason, and they will be bargain shopping this year.

AL West:

Texas Rangers:

Sign Cliff Lee: The Rangers are the Yankees toughest competition in the Lee Sweepstakes and if the money is close enough he could prefer to stay in Texas. If the Rangers land Lee, then they won’t have much additional money to spend, but they should be pretty well set for another World Series run.

Trade for Zack Greinke: If the Rangers fail to land Lee, they should be one of the favorites to land Greinke. It will cost quite a bit in prospects, but his team friendly contract will allow the Rangers to add another free agent or two.

Add A DH: Vlad is gone, so it is time for Texas to find another decent designated hitter to insert into their lineup. The usual 1B suspects could be options, though most likely could find an actual 1B job. Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui could fit, but neither would have any impact in the field. The could go down the trade route for a Billy Butler (especially if they sign Lee) or a Luke Scott. Both are fairly cheap, while having the ability to help in the field as well.

Los Angeles Angels:

Carl Crawford: The Angels are expected to go all-in for Crawford and basically make him an offer he can’t refuse. Crawford would be a huge free agent signing for the Angels and it would drastically improve their chances for reclaiming the AL West. If they miss out on Crawford, they will go hard after Werth, but he seems to be not nearly as high on their wish list.

Adrian Beltre: Whether they get Crawford or not, Beltre figures to be high on the Angels wish list. They need more power in their lineup and 3B is an issue for them. He won’t come cheap and it is possible that he and Crawford would cost to much, but the Angels should be a serious suitor for him.

Add Bench and Relief Depth: The Angels have a good lineup and starting rotation, but they need to add better depth to ensure that injuries don’t sink their season like last year. I’d look for them to have a couple known players on the bench/bullpen, as they look to build a playoff contender.

Oakland A’s:

The A’s have already done some of their hard work this offseason by adding David DeJesus to their outfield, but they still have a ways to go. For the most part I’d expect them to fill their needs from within, but they could make at least one significant move.

Add a DH: The A’s seem poised to try power hitting 1B/DH prospect Chris Carter in the outfield (not too sure if that will work), and add a legitimate designated hitter this offseason. It is no shock that the A’s need to generate power, but it might make more sense to play Carter at DH and add an OF. Right now I don’t see that happening, so I’m guessing they end up signing one of the 1B/DH types on the market this year.

Outside of that 3B and RP could be an issue, but one that might not be fully addressed this offseason.

Seattle Mariners:

The Mariners are expected to sit quietly this offseason as they look to rebuild. One of two moderate signings may occur in January, but I think that is all you will see right now.

Check back later as I look at the NL’s X-Mas/Winter Meetings Wish List!

The Deal: The Oakland Athletics trade RHP Vin Mazzaro and LHP Justin Marks (A+) to the Kansas City Royals for OF David DeJesus

Why This Makes Sense For the Athletics: The Athletics just won the bidding for top Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma earlier this week (though they still need to sign him) so they are trading from a position of strength and are adding a quality outfielder. Oakland desperately needed to add offense this offseason, if they hoped to compete with the Rangers and the Angels next year. DeJesus is a good pickup for them as they look to strengthen their lineup. He isn’t the power bat(s) that the Athletics need, but he will offer a boost to their offensive production. In addition DeJesus is an exceptional defensive outfielder, who is capable at handling all three positions. His defense projects best in left field, but he can handle right as a full-time starter as well. Given their pitching and prospect depth the A’s had no problem sending Mazzaro and Marks to the Royals in this deal. Oakland still has plenty of talent to make another move if need be. DeJesus is coming off an injury so there is a bit of a risk here for Oakland, but they feel confident he is healthy. DeJesus is only signed for one year and could be dealt at the trade deadline if Oakland starts to fall out of the race.

Why This Makes Sense For The Royals: In many ways this deal doesn’t make sense for Kansas City. They do save $6 million next year, on a player who is coming back from a major injury, but they are selling low here. Mazzaro is at best a 4th or 5th starter whose value is tied more into his youth and price than actual performance. Marks is still probably two years away from the majors and he will likely need to be a lefty specialist to earn a major league role. That is not a good return for one of the Royals better players. While they needed to move DeJesus at some point this season, and maybe didn’t want to risk him being injured (or ineffective) and get nothing, this was a bad move. If they waited until later in the offseason I’m guessing a few more suitors would have come calling.

Analysis: The A’s won here by taking a small chance with the injury concerns, but not giving up anything significant for a quality player. DeJesus might not make them sure-fire contenders, but he is a positive step in that direction. If he rebounds and they look to move him at the deadline I’d expect them to get a better return than what they gave up for him. This could be the first of many deals the Royals make this offseason as they look to reshape their roster to reflect when they really believe they can contend. Unfortunately this deal won’t likely ever impact their rebuilding, and offers just stopgap fixes for next year.

As we await for the news of a Roy Oswalt-Phillies trade, there were a few minor deals completed yesterday:

Tigers Grab Peralta From Division Foe: The Tigers filled their need for an infielder by trading for Indians 3B Jhonny Peralta. The Tigers gave up Low-A pitching prospect Giovanni Soto. The Indians are paying the majority of Peralta’s salary this year, but do save on his buyout for next year. In return they receive a young prospect, who isn’t considered a top guy, but his youth and results work in his favor. The Tigers get Peralta, who at one time was considered a major part of the Indians franchise but has seen his production decline of late. Peralta can still help out a major league lineup and since the Indians are paying the majority of his salary it won’t hurt Detroit’s bottom line.  Tigers win this trade given their need, and lack of giving up a quality prospect.

Dodgers Add Podsednik to Their Outfield: Dodgers added the speedy and versatile Scott Podsednik for C Lucas May (AAA) and RHP Elisaul Pimentel (A-).

Podsednik is having another solid season with a .310/.353/.400 line to go along with 30 stolen bases. He brings average defense, and the versatility to play every outfield position. The thing the Dodgers probably liked the most was his price tag, not in terms of prospects, but in cash. Podsednik is only due another 600K this season and will likely be a Type-B free agent after the end of the year, meaning Los Angeles can recoup a draft pick.

For the Royals, they picked up two solid prospects with for 2 months of Podsednik. Neither is considered a major get, but they add to the depth of their system. Lucas May is the better of the two prospects and could develop into a solid starter. His bat is nearly major league ready, but he just switched to catcher 3 years ago so his defense is still a work in progress. May might be ready by the start of next season as a back up and could make Buck expendable down the line. Pimentel will probably project as a middle reliever by the time he makes it to the show, but he has a couple interesting pitches that get results.

All-in-all it is a solid return for Podsednik who is a nice player, but not really a difference maker. The Dodgers got the outfield depth they need, but really didn’t change their status as the third best team in the N.L. West. They gave up some nice prospects but nothing major so that is good, but they will need to make another move if they hope to cement their playoff chances.

No one will ever mistake Trey Hillman for Casey Stengel, but at the same time no one will ever mistake his tenure with the Kansas City Royals for the 1950′s Yankee teams Stengel managed. Maybe Hillman deserves to get the ax after compiling a 152-207 record in just over two seasons (including a 12-23 mark this season), but he was never given the requisite talent to work with.

Yes, many people will point to Zach Greinke as one of the best pitchers in the game, but he can’t do it himself. Greinke has just a 2.73 ERA in 52 innings pitched (which is among the league leaders), but has just a 1-4 record to show for it because the rest of the Royals are so bad. As for the Royals other four starters, they have ERAs of 5.18, 5.22, 5.65, 8.24. And to show how fluky wins can be those four pitchers have a combined record of 6-10, or about twice the winning percentage of Greinke. And while on talent alone that pitching staff isn’t normally that bad, this wasn’t exactly a collection of front of the rotation starters behind Greinke. Some of these guys would be starters on other teams for sure, but none would be higher than a 4th starter on just about any other team in the majors.

If possible the bullpen is in worse shape than the rotation. Joakim Soria is one of the better closers in baseball, but having a top notch closer on a bad baseball team is like having the best tight end on a bad football team, nice to watch and might even be worth a few wins, but won’t bring home any rings. Soria is surrounded by a hodgepodge of high priced veterans and AAAA pitchers, neither of whom have been consistently good under Hillman’s tender. Soria shows the biggest mistake bad teams make year in year out in keeping top notch closers while the rest of their team is in shambles. The Royals need to trade Soria to a contender and rebuild with the bounty.

As if having only two pitchers on your entire staff that you can rely on wasn’t bad enough, that is twice as many All Star pitchers that Hillman has (had) than hitters. Good bats in the Royals lineup are well, not few and far between, they just aren’t there. Billy Butler has emerged as a top young talent, and looks like a fixture for the Royals, but beyond that I wouldn’t put anyone at an All Star level. David DeJesus is a solid player and a good defender, but he is the 7th or 8th best hitter on a good team, for the Royals he is their third. Alberto Callaspo has gotten off to a solid start, but I don’t know if his power numbers are sustainable. If he reverts back to his career numbers he is a slightly below average third baseman, which wouldn’t be an issue, except for the fact he is leading the team in RBI’s. Outside of that, and the potential of SS Mike Aviles, the Royals bats are not just average or below average, but they are down right bad. The rest of their hitters either can’t get on base or hit anything more than a single (and some can’t do either). Their complete lack of talent squanders the opportunities that Butler, Callaspo and DeJesus produce, and have led to the Royals 12-23 record.

I think Hillman has gotten a raw deal with his firing, as he was never given the talent to come close to succeeding. Now when the Royals farm system finally looks up and should begin producing talent to supplement Butler/Greinke, Hillman will be watching from afar. Managers do matter, don’t get me wrong, but they can only be responsible for so many of the wins. And unfortunately the Royals have gotten older and worse during Hillman’s time in Kansas City and that led to his downfall.