Yesterday the New York Mets finally got their man, agreeing to terms with LF Jason Bay on a 4-year $66 million dollar deal. It seemed like a perfect match, Bay was the best hitter on the market and the Mets were a team devoid of power last season. Bay gets to sign for roughly the money he wanted and for a team with a solid nucleus that can compete in the National League. The real question though is how will Bay translate into Citi Field. Citi Field is without a doubt a pitcher’s park, but I think reports of it being ‘death to hitters’ is greatly exaggerated.

Much of this theory, especially the ominous belief that it kills right-handed hitter power, seems to come from the major drop off in production by All-star David Wright last season. In 2008 his slugging percentage was .534 (and had been .523 or better since he entered the league), this past season it dropped to .447. His home run numbers had an even more precipitous fall, peaking at 33 in 2008 and falling down to 10 last season (he did have about 100 less at bats, but that doesn’t account for the entire drop off). No one seems to consider the possibility that Wright just had a fluky down year, and everyone assumes that Wright’s drop-off was due solely to Citi Field, so logically no one can hit there. False, Wright hit 5 home runs at home last season and 5 on the road (and he had a couple more games and 20 more at bats on the road). Yes, his overall offensive numbers were down at home, but not to the point where you’d legitimately worry that it is affecting his offensive production. Bay’s numbers will translate just fine to New York and Citi Field, it’s his defensive numbers that will cause the biggest concern.

Citi Field is a spacious outfield, and Bay isn’t anywhere close to a Gold Glover out there. While I don’t think he’s as bad defensively as some defensive numbers suggest (Fenway is tough for any left fielder), Bay will give up some runs with his glove. It is even a more pronounced problem, because the Met’s pitching staff is so bad right now. Unless they find some quality arms (and soon), Bay will likely get more than his fair share of balls in left. Overall though I like this move for the Mets, it answers some of the Phillies moves, and will give the Mets the offense they need to compete (once they find a couple of arms to go with Pelfrey and Santana).

While MLB’s free agency and trade period is always slower than any of the other four major sports, it has been exceptionally slow this offseason. Everyone who has signed so far, has signed as a minor league free agent, and there haven’t even been any discussions with any of the big name free agents. As for trades, some names and potential destinations have been floated, but nothing serious has come close to happening. That is all expected to change in two weeks when baseball’s winter meetings begin. By then teams will have had their internal discussions and budgets all set up, initial contact will have been made with FA’s and trade partners, and everyone will be in one spot, making deals easier. Before that happens though, we might see one of the biggest names on the trade block on the move. According to the Boston Globe the Red Sox are getting serious in their efforts to acquire Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays, before the winter meetings.

Halladay would be a huge addition to the Red Sox, giving them three bona fide Aces to headline their staff, but at what cost? Now I’m not talking about the cost in prospects, which is speculated at beginning with pitchers Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly. I’m talking about what it will cost in money. Strange as it may sound I think the Red Sox can more easily afford to give up two top young pitching prospects, than the huge contract extension that Halladay will require.

Buchholz and Kelly are both nice prospects, but neither should hold up Boston in trading for Halladay. Especially if no other top prospects are included in the deal. Buchholz has been involved in every trade rumor by the Red Sox over the last 4 years. He was once considered to be an ‘ace’ in the making, and has shown plenty of flashes of his potential. While he may no longer be considered a No. 1 starter, he could definitely be a No. 2 for a long time in this league. Even with all his youth and potential, Buchholz is no Roy Halladay. Kelly, who is reported as a potential sticking point, was the Red Sox 1st round pick in 2008 and one of the brightest pitching prospects in the minors. I understand a little reluctance in moving Kelly, but he is an extremely raw pitcher that won’t be in the majors for 2-4 years. Over that time Halladay will have won 15+ games a year, be one of the top pitchers in the league, and likely have led whatever team he’s on (Yankees) to the postseason. Kelly and Buchholz are worth moving for Halladay and what he brings to the table.

In and of itself the $20 million per year Halladay will require isn’t outrageous, and could fit into Boston’s $120 million+ payroll. The problem is that given Boston’s current situation in regards to money on the books it is going to take some creative accounting to fit Halladay in. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts the Red Sox have $109 million tied up for next season, and that’s not counting any of the arbitration cases or league minimum players, which will add at least $15 million and potentially as much as $20 million. Also that figure doesn’t include Jason Bay or his replacement in left field. If they were to resign Bay and add Halladay the Red Sox would add another $30 million+ to their payroll. As much money as the Red Sox have spent over the years, they have never spent more than $143 million on payroll. This would put them more than $12 million over that previous high, and that’s without signing any other additional free agents.

The truth of the matter is that this year isn’t even the Red Sox biggest problem. Next year things get even tricker for Boston. Any Halladay extension is going to be in the neighborhood of $20 million a year, and a Bay deal will probably be around $16 million a year. Which seems to be fine since they only have $50 million committed next season, and David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are coming off the books. That’s a deceiving figure, because again it doesn’t take into consideration any of this year’s arbitration cases (which will only be larger), new cases (which will jump from $400K, to a couple of million), and Jonathan Papelbon who’s contract could be worth $10-12 million. That $50 million figure (or $86 million with Halladay and Bay) will jump by well over $30 million for all the arbitration cases. Which puts Boston at a very manageable $116 million range, except they have to resign Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez who are both going to be free agent’s after next season. Both will require eight figure per season contracts that could add an additional $25-30 million. The Red Sox will also need to replace Ortiz and Lowell next season in their lineup, and while they can probably find better, and cheaper options, they will still require millions of dollars of payroll.

This seems like a pretty bad payroll crunch to me. I don’t see how Boston can resign Jason Bay if Halladay is acquired, because frankly I don’t know where they will get the money. Yes, the Red Sox are a big market team, but not even them can spend like the Yankees, and not in this economic climate. They don’t have the luxury boxes or sheer number of seats that other stadiums have, to increase their payroll. I think Boston will trade for Halladay, and then find a cheaper option in left field, but this move could very well blow up in their face, if they don’t have the offense to beat New York.

1. Matt Holliday LF:  Holliday is one of the best hitters to reach the free agent market in the last few years. He is a legitimate  3 or 4 hole hitter on any team. He also offers solid defense out in left field for any team that wants him. Expect the Yankees and Red Sox to be interested, with the Giants, Braves and Mets as long shots.

2. Jason Bay LF:  Bay brings everything to the table that Holliday does with the exception of defense. Bay’s lack of defense and being a year older will make him a bit cheaper on the market. I’d expect all the same teams to be in on Bay, (obviously with the exception of whoever lands Holliday) and I’d add the Mariners to the list.

3. John Lackey SP:  Lackey is the top arm on the market this year, and a frontline starter on any team. He’s not an “ace” in the sense of CC Sabathia, but their isn’t a team in this league that wouldn’t like him in the top 3 of their rotation. Its interesting that the Angels seemed inclined to let Lackey walk. He has dealt with some injuries the last few years, bringing him down a notch or two. Dodger blue might make sense, the Mariners are another team that makes sense out West looking for top pitcher. If Lackey heads east the Yankees and Mets will be very interested, and the Red Sox will do their due diligence as well.  Two extreme dark horses are the Nationals and Orioles. Both teams have plenty of money to spend and need a top pitcher, but probably won’t overpay if the Yankees and Red Sox are involved.

4. Chone Figgins 3B, UTL:  Here we see a drop off in the market. While Figgins is a good player he’s hardly someone you build your team around. He doesn’t fit the typical 3B profile as his speed is his biggest asset. If the Angels can’t retain him, the Phillies will be the top team calling. Orioles, Giants, and Cardinals could all be interested as well.

5. Nick Johnson 1B:  Johnson has an injury history that will keep him from getting a long term deal, but when he’s healthy he’s one of the most productive players in the game. His power numbers and defense fell off some last year hurting his value, but he was still an on base machine. I’d expect the power numbers to rebound this season and for him to post around a .900 OPS. The Giants, Braves, Orioles, and Mariners should all be in on Johnson. I think the Mets will be interested as well, and I’d never count out the Athletics on anyone who gets on base as often as Johnson does.

6. Johnny Damon LF:  Damon isn’t a long term answer for anyone, but for the next 2 years there are few safer players out there on the FA market. Damon year in year out produces a solid OPS, whether its sometimes with a bit more power (20+ hrs) or a higher obp Damon is always a big cog in the offense. Damon also still has speed as a part of his game, and has always been a smart base runner. I think the Yankees will retain Damon, but if they go in another direction there will be a few teams interested. Giants and Cardinals make the most sense.

7. Randy Wolf SP:  Wolf had a great year for the Dodgers last season and helped them reach the NLCS. Wolf isn’t a true “ace” and is a few steps below Lackey. I think the Dodgers will retain him (unless they sign Lackey). If he does leave, the Mets, Nationals, and Astros (if they decide to fore go rebuilding) make the most sense. Some AL teams could come calling, but the NL seems like a better fit for Wolf.

8. Rich Harden SP:  In terms of stuff, Harden is the best pitcher on the market unfortunately he can’t find a way to stay healthy. As a result he can forget about any deal longer than two years and his price tag will be well below Lackey’s and Wolf’s. I think a number of teams will be in on Harden trying to catch lightening in a bottle. In addition to the usual suspects, I think the A’s, O’s, Nats, and Brewers will all be in on Harden.

9. Jose Valverde RP:  Valverde is the top closer on the market this season, but faces a few road blocks. The first being the glut of closers on the market, and the second the lack of legitimate openings among teams. Valverde is a good closer but is far from the supreme status of Rivera and Papelbon. The Phillies will be interested, but I don’t think they will overpay. The Nats, Rays, and Rangers all could use some help at the back end of their bullpen, but probably will look at cheaper options. The Cubs could be an interesting team to watch.

10. Aroldis Chapman SP:  Chapman is a 21-year old Cuban defector with a 100 MPH fastball, but also 100 questions that need answered as well. Is he truly major league ready? How are his command, control, and off speed pitches? These are just a few of those questions that teams will be asking. His age and fastball will get him a big time deal, but he is not without risk. The Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites in this race, everyone else has to be a long shot. The Orioles could get serious, especially if the Yankees sign Lackey (more or less taking them out of the race).

11. Joel Pineiro SP:  Pineiro is a solid mid rotation arm. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, but a great 2009 will give him a nice deal. The Cardinals will look to retain him, but expect a lot of teams to get interested in him. The Nats, O’s, Astros, and Brewers should all be at the top of the list.

12. Orlando Hudson 2B:  Hudson has lost a step defensively (though he still won the Gold Glove), but is still a pretty productive player at 2B. Hudson would be a nice fit for the Nationals and a solid 2 hole hitter for them. If the Mets can dump Castillo’s contract they could get involved as well.

13. Adam LaRoche 1B:  LaRoche struggled with the Pirates and Red Sox last season, but was on fire with Braves the last two months. Atlanta will look to keep LaRoche, but if they can’t the O’s, Mets, Giants and Mariners will be interested.

14. Mike Cameron CF:  Cameron is still a solid center fielder and offers both defensive and offensive upside. Athletics and Yankees could make sense. Also the Padres could bring Cameron back to patrol their spacious center field.

15. Marco Scutaro:  Scutaro is the top short stop on the market. He has always been solid defensively, and had a breakout offensive year. The Astros and Red Sox make the most sense.

16. Adrian Beltre 3B:  Beltre is a great buy low candidate this offseason. He had a pretty bad and injury filled walk year, but prior to that was the model of consistency, 20+ home run power, around an .800 OPS, and excellent defense at third. His offensive numbers should be helped by getting out of Seattle as well. The Twins and Phillies will be the most interested. I’d imagine the O’s will get involved as well.

17. Marlon Byrd CF, OF:  Byrd is very much under the radar, but one of the better outfielders on the market. Not too many teams need center fielders so I could see him landing in a spot like St. Louis or possibly with San Francisco.

18. Jon Garland SP:  Garland is another mid rotation candidate, who offers little upside but can be a great addition to most teams rotations. I think he’s a perfect fit in Washington. If the Cards lose Pineiro, he makes sense there, or would be a solid addition for the Brewers.

19. Andy Pettitte SP:  Part of the reason he is so low on this list is the fact that he is almost sure to resign with the Yankees. Also I don’t know how much you can trust him to put up another year like he had in 2009. He could easily have another 2008 down year. If he for some reason left the Yankees, the Dodgers or Astros make some sense.

20. Eric Bedard SP:  Bedard is very similar to Harden, a pitcher with amazing stuff, but has been too injured to make a long term investment in. Plenty of teams should be interested in him. And it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Orioles bring back their former staff ace.