Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month, so the Hot Stove is heating up again as players scramble to find jobs and teams look to fill out their rosters. Even though most of the big names are off the board, there are still a few free agents who can help a team get over the hump next season.

Catcher:  The catcher position wasn’t strong to begin with but there are still two names on there that could be starters or at least platoon players, Rod Barajas and Yorvit Torrealba. Neither Barajas or Torrealba are great options, but they are solid veterans who offer a little bit with the bat.

First Basemen:  The first base market has dried up pretty quickly and is left to only a handful of viable options. Russell Branyan had a big year last season, but has an inconsistent past as well as some injury history. Hank Blalock is another interesting option (some might think he’s a 3B, but he can’t handle the position) with big power but little else to bring to the table. Blalock’s inability to take a walk put him and Mike Jacobs in the same category. Carlos Delgado is a nice throw back option, but no one is even sure he’s healthy enough to play in the field anymore (or to hold up for at least half the season). Ryan Garko has for quite sometime been an interesting name among first basemen. He’s always been okay defensively and has good plate recognition. His problem is his lack of power, which has decreased each of the last two years. He might end up being the best choice among whats out there given his age and lack of injury concerns.

Middle Infield:  The middle infield is actually one position that has a couple decent options for teams looking for a starter or platoon player. Ronnie Belliard (2B, UTL) is a solid veteran, and while he shouldn’t be a starter for a full season he’s a pretty decent option to give 350-400 at bats to. He can back up 3B and 1B as well, though lacks the power to play those positions long term. Belliard is a good choice for a team with a young 2B on the way that might need to start the year in the minors. Adam Kennedy (2B, 3B) had nice season last year, and showed that he can handle the hot corner for an extended look. Kennedy doesn’t have a big bat, but he’s traditionally a pretty good defender at 2B. His biggest problem is his inconsistency, the 2009 version is a great free agent buy, but if he ends up playing like the 2007 Adam Kennedy then that team is in for a big disappointment. Orlando Hudson (2B) is widely considered the best option on the market (though that might be a little high praise). Defensively he makes a number of tough plays, but misses a lot of routine ones at the same time. Offensively though he has more upside and could even be a solid 2-hole hitter. Orlando Cabrera (SS, 2B, 3B) is a former All-star, but his age is catching up with him. A position change to 2B may extend his career by a couple years. He could be a solid option for a team with unknowns at both middle infield spots. Felipe Lopez (2B, SS) is probably the best option on the market. His defense at SS is limited and for a guy with great timed speed he doesn’t get the most out of it (or much of anything), but he’s still a legitimate starter at 2B. He offers plenty of offensive upside and would be a good bottom of the order hitter for a playoff team.

Third Basemen:  Talk about a dried up market, the only players that make sense are Joe Crede (who has major health and on-base issues), Melvin Mora (whose age and defense/offense are a concern), and Miguel Tejada (who has never really played the position). Tejada in my book is the best option, his defense might be shaky and his offensive has fallen off some, but I think he can handle the hot corner.

Outfielders:  There are a few starting options still out there but lets get through the back-ups. First Randy Winn, Reed Johnson, and Eric Byrnes can all be solid defensive role player options. Jonny Gomes is a nice platoon corner outfield option. Jermaine Dye and Garrett Anderson are past the prime when they should be starting in the outfield (someone give them a DH job), but will get work given their consistent bats. Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady are the best options for teams looking for a starter. Nady is coming off an injury so, he will probably be a cheaper option. Nady offers some solid power and decent hitting numbers. His defense is average so he’s not a big liability in the field. Damon is probably the top overall player still on the market. While his range and arm regulate him to left field now, he’s a pretty good option for a team looking for a good bat. Though never a true power hitter he can hit 20-25 home runs in 550 at bats, he also has the on-base skills to go along with his moderate power. Despite being up there in age (36) Damon has a pretty clean injury history and still gets alot out of his speed (as seen in the World Series). Damon isn’t the perennial All-star he once was, but would be a great signing for 1-2 years.

Check back later for a report on the pitchers still on the market.

Marlins Spend Money: Stop the presses the Florida Marlins have signed Josh Johnson to a four year extension. Given the recent pressure from the players union for the Marlins to spend more money, its not a huge surprise they made the signing. Florida couldn’t have spent their money any better, as Johnson was an ace for them last season, going 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 191 K’s. The signing of Johnson will hopefully show their fans a sign of commitment, that people might actually come out to watch one of the better young and exciting teams in baseball. Johnson along with Hanley Ramirez, give the Marlins a pitcher and hitter to build around going forward. And will give them the superstars to get them into their new ballpark in 2012. I don’t think this signing is a total change in philosophy for the Marlins, as I’d still expect to see a few of their arbitration eligible players traded before the season. Still, its nice to see Florida lock up another one of their young stars.

D-Backs land LaRoche: Adam LaRoche finally has a home and its a bit of a curious choice for both sides involved. The Diamondbacks got an upgrade at 1B, but its a fairly small one considering they already had Connor Jackson and Brandon Allen for the position. This signing will allow Jackson to play LF, but he’s never been that good defensively out there, so it is hard to see how that makes sense. In addition the Diamondbacks have some young OF’s that should be major league ready soon. Jackson will give Arizona protection against LaRoche’s kryptonite, tough left-handers, but doesn’t give them much else. The signing of LaRoche also pushes back the start date of Brandon Allen. Allen is a big time power prospect (though he’s not yet a refined player) who is just about ready for the majors. While it may have made some sense to add a 1B to give Allen a bit more time, LaRoche seems like the wrong choice for the job. If you are signing a stop gap, it should be someone who is cheaper that you could move to the bench when Allen is ready. Also, Laroche is a notorious slow starter, so even if they were planning on trading him in June/July to make room for Allen, they are paying him to have his worst months of the year (and lower his trade value).

As for LaRoche its a bit of a curious move as well. Ignoring the money factor (which its rumored that he turned down more money from the Giants) I don’t understand this move for LaRoche. He had reported interest by both the Giants, and Orioles, and either one of them seemed like a better fit for LaRoche. The Giants are a playoff caliber team (and would have even been more so if LaRoche signed), while the Diamondbacks are going to struggle to finish 4th in that division. While the Giants have one of the more anemic lineups in baseball, it has gotten closer to league average, which is about as good as Arizona’s. Also by signing with the Giants, LaRoche could have avoided facing Lincecum and Cain multiple times a year. While part of the reason might have been the more spacious confines of AT&T Park over Chase Field, that doesn’t explain the choice of Arizona over Baltimore.

The Orioles like the Diamondbacks aren’t really in the playoff hunt this coming season, but unlike both the Giants and Diamondbacks, they would have offered a lineup that would only benefit LaRoche. Most days LaRoche would likely hit 4th or 5th in the O’s lineup (unless it was a really tough lefty). He’d have Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis hitting in front of him, with Matt Wieters, Noland Reimold, and Garrett Atkins hitting behind him (as well as Luke Scott/Felix Pie factored somewhere in the equation as well). Already that is a lineup far superior to anything the Giants or D-Backs could field, and if Wieters, Jones, and Reimold reach their potential, that could be a top 5 lineup. If LaRoche was looking to park his bat for one season in hopes of increasing his numbers (and with it his value) he couldn’t have done much better than Baltimore. As for ballpark factor, Camden Yards overall isn’t quite as good as Chase Field, but its a better home run park, and the AL East’s parks are far better hitting parks then those in the NL West. Maybe LaRoche really wanted to play in Arizona or the O’s didn’t offer nearly as much money, whatever the reason it seems like a strange call for LaRoche to go out there.

The Cardinals made a commitment yesterday to their fans, and to Albert Pujols that they want to win and be a consistent contender with their resigning of LF Matt Holliday. They gave Holliday the biggest free agent deal of this offseason (7 years $120 million, with an option year for an 8th year). In addition to the size and money in the contract, the deal includes a full no trade clause, which could be trouble for the Cardinals at the end of this deal. By signing Holliday long term they secured one of the games top 20 power hitters for the middle of their lineup. And someone that can legitimately protect the best power hitter in the game, Pujols. This move goes a long way to giving the Cardinals a playoff caliber lineup for years to come.

For Holliday and his agent Scott Boras, this was a big win for them. They got more years and money than not only this free agent class, but most of the free agents of the past few years (except for those signed by the Yankees). The Cardinals are a good fit for Holliday as well. They have been a consistent contender this past decade, including going to two World Series. While Colorado made a nice run a couple of years ago with Holliday (and last year without him), they have more or less not been a contender during Holliday’s time there. I also think staying in the National league, in a relatively hitter friendly park, with Pujols with him in the line-up is the perfect fit for Holliday.

While Holliday is a great addition for the Cardinals is the short term and makes them a top contender, was this the right move for St. Louis? I’d say yes and no. Holliday was the perfect bat to add to the lineup, but they did so at an incredible cost. I have no problem with the $17 million per year, but the 7 years seems a bit too long, especially for the National League. Right now Holliday is considered an above-average defender, but the last couple of years of this contract that might not be the case. As a left fielder now, there is no other place to ‘hide’ his declining defense but first base, and that’s not going to happen if they resign Albert Pujols (which is a no-brainer).

The other issue is with the money, and will they have enough to extend Pujols, and give new contracts to their two ace pitchers, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. While the Cardinals have been a top contender, they’ve never spent like the New York, Chicago, LA teams (or Boston as well). They will have to raise their payroll significantly, and over the long term if they want to keep all these players and field a winning team. Until that time though, St. Louis fans should be happy and get ready for a deep playoff run next season.

Yesterday the New York Mets finally got their man, agreeing to terms with LF Jason Bay on a 4-year $66 million dollar deal. It seemed like a perfect match, Bay was the best hitter on the market and the Mets were a team devoid of power last season. Bay gets to sign for roughly the money he wanted and for a team with a solid nucleus that can compete in the National League. The real question though is how will Bay translate into Citi Field. Citi Field is without a doubt a pitcher’s park, but I think reports of it being ‘death to hitters’ is greatly exaggerated.

Much of this theory, especially the ominous belief that it kills right-handed hitter power, seems to come from the major drop off in production by All-star David Wright last season. In 2008 his slugging percentage was .534 (and had been .523 or better since he entered the league), this past season it dropped to .447. His home run numbers had an even more precipitous fall, peaking at 33 in 2008 and falling down to 10 last season (he did have about 100 less at bats, but that doesn’t account for the entire drop off). No one seems to consider the possibility that Wright just had a fluky down year, and everyone assumes that Wright’s drop-off was due solely to Citi Field, so logically no one can hit there. False, Wright hit 5 home runs at home last season and 5 on the road (and he had a couple more games and 20 more at bats on the road). Yes, his overall offensive numbers were down at home, but not to the point where you’d legitimately worry that it is affecting his offensive production. Bay’s numbers will translate just fine to New York and Citi Field, it’s his defensive numbers that will cause the biggest concern.

Citi Field is a spacious outfield, and Bay isn’t anywhere close to a Gold Glover out there. While I don’t think he’s as bad defensively as some defensive numbers suggest (Fenway is tough for any left fielder), Bay will give up some runs with his glove. It is even a more pronounced problem, because the Met’s pitching staff is so bad right now. Unless they find some quality arms (and soon), Bay will likely get more than his fair share of balls in left. Overall though I like this move for the Mets, it answers some of the Phillies moves, and will give the Mets the offense they need to compete (once they find a couple of arms to go with Pelfrey and Santana).

This 3 (or 4)-team mega deal isn’t 100% finalized yet but is close enough that I think we can dissect it properly.

The Deal:

Seattle Mariners acquire: Cliff Lee (signed for 2010 for $9 million)

Philadelphia Phillies acquire: Roy Halladay (signed for 2010 for $15.75 million) and $6 million from the Toronto Blue Jays, and LHP Phillippe Aumont (AA), CF Tyson Gillies (A+), RHP Juan Ramirez (A+) from the Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays acquire: RHP Kyle Drabek (AA), C Travis D’Arnaud (A-) From Philadelphia, and 1B/3B Brett Wallace (AAA) from the Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics acquire: OF Michael Taylor (AAA)

*Note the Athletics-Toronto portion doesn’t have anything to do with the overall Halladay-Lee trade

From the Blue Jays perspective they did well in receiving three top prospects for Roy Halladay. Halladay is one of the top five pitchers in the game, but he was going to leave as a free agent after this season, which would only bring back a pair of high draft picks in the 2011 draft. I think the Blue Jays were smart adding $6 million in cash to make this deal work, Toronto will still save almost $10 million and they increased the level of prospects they received.

While all three prospects are legit players with unlimited potential, Drabek and Taylor are the real prizes here. Drabek, son of the former big leaguer Doug Drabek, is a top of the rotation prospect that should move up to AAA this season. If he keeps dominating like he did last season and works on his changeup he could be ready to fill Roy Halladay’s place in the rotation by mid-season. Taylor is even more likely to help in the majors this season as he is ready to step into either corner outfield spot. Taylor doesn’t do any one thing exceptionally well, but does offer major league tools across the board. D’Arauad is a longer way away, but does have the talent to become a quality major league starting catcher.

Now it appears that Toronto is flipping Taylor to the Athletics for 1B/3B prospect Brett Wallace. Wallace offers more power and natural hitting ability than Taylor, but doesn’t have the speed or defensive ablity that Taylor brings to the table. This component of the deal I’m not as crazy about from a Blue Jay’s point of view. Wallace is almost as major league ready as Taylor, but the Blue Jays have Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion at 1B and 3B respectively. While we are at it lets put to bed the Brett Wallace at 3B idea, he’s an awful defender there and not worth the headaches. He should be viewed as a 1B/DH type (potentially could play a little LF but think Adam Dunn). And unless the Jays have a plan to move Overbay Wallace is their DH, meaning Lind and Snider are manning the corner outfield spots. Offensively that has the chance to be great…defensively it could be disastrous. I think I would have rather had Taylor giving you you a defensive boost (while still giving you some offensive value) over Wallace and the home runs. Overall though the Blue Jays end up with three top prospects for Halladay and that is what’s important at the end of the day.

The A’s did pretty good in this side trade. Wallace is a top notch hitting prospect but the A’s already have Jake Fox in the majors, and Chris Carter, Daric Barton and Sean Dolittle in the wings as well. First base was a log jam for the A’s so moving Wallace to get a quality OF prospect is well worth it. Taylor’s defense should be very noticeable in the spacious Oakland Coliseum. His defensive ability and speed will be a solid boost to a young and promising Athletics team.

The Mariners for their part did well in this deal. You can’t argue at adding Cliff Lee to your staff. Lee has been among the elite pitchers in the league for the last two seasons. He had a spotty track record before that, but all in all is a top notch pitcher. When it comes to top notch pitchers who have been traded or signed recently Lee is a slight notch below Santana and Sabathia, about even with Halladay (for one year Halladay though Lee is a few years younger). He is probably slightly above Bedard and Haren, and above Burnett and Lackey as well. In Lee the Mariners get another front of the rotation starter to go next to Felix Hernandez. That is a 1-2 punch that is very capable of winning the A.L. West and doing some serious damage come playoff time. Seattle does take a risk in giving up three highly rated prospects for Lee, because he will likely leave via free agency next season. But the risk is worth it if Seattle is challenging for the playoffs come September. As for the prospects Aumont and Ramirez are nice arms, but nothing to really worry about losing. Gillies is the one player who could really come back to haunt them. He seems to be a great CF prospect, albeit 2-3 years away. The real thing I wonder about this deal from Seattle’s perspective is, why not just increase your offer and trade for Halladay and sign him to an extension like the Phillies are doing? Money is an issue sure, but the Mariners have been among the top payroll teams over the last 7-8 years (easily in the same range as the Phillies), and have even more payroll flexibility than Philadelphia. I would have paid the higher prospect price for the assurance of locking up an ace for 4-5 years. Regardless, the Mariners are going for it out West this season, and should look to acquire a few more bats to give them the edge over the Angels.

It took 5 months but the Phillies finally got their man. Roy Halladay was their target all throughout July, before they “settled” on Cliff Lee for their playoff run. On paper it looks like the Phils made out like bandits in this deal. They got Halladay for 2010 at Cliff Lee prices ( after the $6 million from Toronto), and three young prospects to replace the three they sent for Halladay. In reality though I don’t know if the Phillies gained any ground in this deal. Halladay is an elite pitcher and has been better than Lee, but he’s also a little older and will likely cost more (slightly) per season than what Lee will get in his next deal. Overall I don’t mind the prospects they gave up to Toronto for Halladay, they were going to have to pay a premium price for a pitcher of Halladay’s status. What I do mind is the return they got for Lee. Aumont and Ramirez are both quality arms, but also both profile as relievers, and combined aren’t as valuable as Drabek. Drabek is also within one year away from the majors, while Aumont and Ramirez both are a little further off. Gillies could end up being the best player Philadelphia received, but even his best case scenario he is equal to Taylor as a prospect, and is two or three years behind him in terms of being major league ready.

I think the Phillies really blew it here with this deal. If they weren’t going to be able to lock up Lee long term, then I don’t have a problem with trading for Halladay, but why does that mean you need to trade Lee? Why not have Lee, Halladay, and Hamels in the same rotation together? It can’t be money because for this up coming season Lee is only costing $9 million, not bad for your third starter. The Phillies could have easily traded Joe Blanton and his $8 million dollar salary for prospects, and be able to afford Lee and Halladay in the same rotation. While it is true any potential Blanton trade wouldn’t return you near as much in prospects as Lee did, but the value of Lee over Blanton for one season would be worth it.

Winner(s): No team really lost here though I think there is a definite pecking order. I like what the Blue Jays did here, acquiring three upside players, two of which are nearly ML ready (though I still wonder about the Wallace-Taylor swap), next I like what the Athletics did coming late to the party. Wallace was redundant in Oakland where as Taylor fills a need. After Oakland I like Seattle taking a chance on Lee and going for the ring this season. They gave up nice prospects, but no one they can live without. The Phillies got their man, but I really think they outsmarted themselves here, keeping Lee probably would have been the way to go, or getting back at least one player who could help them this season. Instead they got three prospects who will need some work in the minors before they make their way up to Philadelphia.

Red Sox Agree To Terms with Lackey and Cameron: The Boston Red Sox made two big moves yesterday signing John Lackey, the top starter on the market to a 5-year $85 million deal. After adding another top flight starter, Boston moved quickly to fill their hole in LF by signing OF Mike Cameron to a 2-year $15.5 million deal. I like both moves for the Red Sox and I also liked how they moved quickly to sign these players to fill their needs. Let’s look closer at these deals for a minute, and what it means for the teams involved.

Signing John Lackey was great move for the Red Sox considering their other options for adding a starting pitcher. None of the other top free agent starters were nearly as good as Lackey and all of them are looking at $10 million a year salaries. While I’m not usually a fan of 5-year deals for starting pitchers, Lackey was one of the younger starters on the market and has been reasonably healthy throughout his career. Lackey gives the Red Sox the best rotation in baseball, joining Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Dice-K, Clay Buchholz and Tim Wakefield.

The signing makes even more sense considering the impending 3 team trade involving Seattle-Philadelphia-Toronto, and includes top pitchers Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Yes Halladay might be a better pitcher, but the Red Sox would have to shell out 3-4 top young players and $20 million a year to keep Halladay in the mix. And While the price for Lee (in prospects), might have been cheaper, extending him (which might not be possible) might have been more years or money. Now the Red Sox can have Buchholz and Lackey instead of just Halladay, and they can use their other prospects (and maybe Buchholz as well) to trade for a big bat. Boston does have to give the Angels their first round pick (the Blue Jays now get their 2nd round pick for Marco Scutaro) 29th overall for signing Lackey, but that’s not a big loss. The Red Sox already received the Braves 1st round pick (2oth) for Billy Wagner, and will get an additional 1st or early 2nd round pick for Jason Bay when he signs. In addition the Red Sox get a supplemental 1st round pick for each Bay and Wagner, meaning they will be pretty set when next year’s draft rolls around.

If signing Lackey wasn’t enough Boston made another smart move yesterday by inking Cameron. While Cameron is getting up there in age (36) he’s still been a fairly productive outfielder, and well worth the 2 year $15.5 million dollar investment. Cameron will shift over to LF, but does give the Red Sox plenty of flexibility having him back up Ellsbury in CF (not to mention maybe giving him a few pointers). Cameron loses a little value in moving to LF, but gives them a top notch defender to play balls off the Green Monster. While Cameron’s skills have declined some, he still routinely posts OPS numbers in the .800′s and has hit 20 or more home runs in each of the last 4 seasons (including 2 in San Diego). While he is no longer a threat on the base paths, he is by no means a base clogger. Cameron still has the wheels to take two bases on a single and steal an occasional base. While he might not have the profile of a Bay or Holliday, he signed for half of what they will make next year and for a third of the years it will take to sign them.

The Red Sox couldn’t afford to bring in both a top pitcher and a top hitter, Cameron now gives them a lot of value in the outfield at a very reasonable price. While the offensive numbers may be lower, defensively Cameron should save a lot of runs in the outfield. With Lackey and Cameron on board, the Red Sox will limit their opponents (the Yankees) chances for getting into a slugfest. The moves also keep the Boston farm system in tact to make a move or two at the trade deadline.

Angels Sign WS MVP Matsui: As the Red Sox made two moves the Yankees watched one of their own stars slip away. What makes it even worse, is that he went to another one of their A.L. rivals. The Angels did well signing Hideki Matsui to a one year $6.5 million deal. Matsui on a multi-year deal is a huge risk, he is injury prone, lacks any defensive value, and will be 36 next season. But Matsui at one season, for half of what he made last year is brilliant. When he’s healthy Matsui is a great DH; he hits both lefties and righties very well, offering moderate power and great plate discipline. The Angels need to just keep him out of the field…where he is awful defensively and is more prone to injury. The only downside to this move is it puts Bobby Abreu back out in the field every day, which comes with its own defensive limitations. But it does give Los Angeles depth and a solid offensive core. Between their outfield, 1B and DH, the Angels have 5 players who have 20+ home run power (Abreu is pushing it) and all capable of an .800 plus OPS. Matsui alone doesn’t make up for the losses of Figgins and Lackey that the Angels have suffered, but it does dull the blow a little bit.  Overall its a good move by Los Angeles as they look to finally overcome the Yankees and Red Sox.

While MLB’s free agency and trade period is always slower than any of the other four major sports, it has been exceptionally slow this offseason. Everyone who has signed so far, has signed as a minor league free agent, and there haven’t even been any discussions with any of the big name free agents. As for trades, some names and potential destinations have been floated, but nothing serious has come close to happening. That is all expected to change in two weeks when baseball’s winter meetings begin. By then teams will have had their internal discussions and budgets all set up, initial contact will have been made with FA’s and trade partners, and everyone will be in one spot, making deals easier. Before that happens though, we might see one of the biggest names on the trade block on the move. According to the Boston Globe the Red Sox are getting serious in their efforts to acquire Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays, before the winter meetings.

Halladay would be a huge addition to the Red Sox, giving them three bona fide Aces to headline their staff, but at what cost? Now I’m not talking about the cost in prospects, which is speculated at beginning with pitchers Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly. I’m talking about what it will cost in money. Strange as it may sound I think the Red Sox can more easily afford to give up two top young pitching prospects, than the huge contract extension that Halladay will require.

Buchholz and Kelly are both nice prospects, but neither should hold up Boston in trading for Halladay. Especially if no other top prospects are included in the deal. Buchholz has been involved in every trade rumor by the Red Sox over the last 4 years. He was once considered to be an ‘ace’ in the making, and has shown plenty of flashes of his potential. While he may no longer be considered a No. 1 starter, he could definitely be a No. 2 for a long time in this league. Even with all his youth and potential, Buchholz is no Roy Halladay. Kelly, who is reported as a potential sticking point, was the Red Sox 1st round pick in 2008 and one of the brightest pitching prospects in the minors. I understand a little reluctance in moving Kelly, but he is an extremely raw pitcher that won’t be in the majors for 2-4 years. Over that time Halladay will have won 15+ games a year, be one of the top pitchers in the league, and likely have led whatever team he’s on (Yankees) to the postseason. Kelly and Buchholz are worth moving for Halladay and what he brings to the table.

In and of itself the $20 million per year Halladay will require isn’t outrageous, and could fit into Boston’s $120 million+ payroll. The problem is that given Boston’s current situation in regards to money on the books it is going to take some creative accounting to fit Halladay in. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts the Red Sox have $109 million tied up for next season, and that’s not counting any of the arbitration cases or league minimum players, which will add at least $15 million and potentially as much as $20 million. Also that figure doesn’t include Jason Bay or his replacement in left field. If they were to resign Bay and add Halladay the Red Sox would add another $30 million+ to their payroll. As much money as the Red Sox have spent over the years, they have never spent more than $143 million on payroll. This would put them more than $12 million over that previous high, and that’s without signing any other additional free agents.

The truth of the matter is that this year isn’t even the Red Sox biggest problem. Next year things get even tricker for Boston. Any Halladay extension is going to be in the neighborhood of $20 million a year, and a Bay deal will probably be around $16 million a year. Which seems to be fine since they only have $50 million committed next season, and David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are coming off the books. That’s a deceiving figure, because again it doesn’t take into consideration any of this year’s arbitration cases (which will only be larger), new cases (which will jump from $400K, to a couple of million), and Jonathan Papelbon who’s contract could be worth $10-12 million. That $50 million figure (or $86 million with Halladay and Bay) will jump by well over $30 million for all the arbitration cases. Which puts Boston at a very manageable $116 million range, except they have to resign Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez who are both going to be free agent’s after next season. Both will require eight figure per season contracts that could add an additional $25-30 million. The Red Sox will also need to replace Ortiz and Lowell next season in their lineup, and while they can probably find better, and cheaper options, they will still require millions of dollars of payroll.

This seems like a pretty bad payroll crunch to me. I don’t see how Boston can resign Jason Bay if Halladay is acquired, because frankly I don’t know where they will get the money. Yes, the Red Sox are a big market team, but not even them can spend like the Yankees, and not in this economic climate. They don’t have the luxury boxes or sheer number of seats that other stadiums have, to increase their payroll. I think Boston will trade for Halladay, and then find a cheaper option in left field, but this move could very well blow up in their face, if they don’t have the offense to beat New York.

With the Hot Stove heating up in baseball’s offseason, I thought I’d take a hometown look at what the Nationals are facing this offseason and offer up a few opportunities to improve in 2010.

Here’s what the Nationals have right now for 2010:

C: Jesus Flores (1st year of Arb.)

1B: Adam Dunn ($12.00)

2B: Cristian Guzman ($8.00)

SS: Ian Desmond (Minimum)

3B: Ryan Zimmerman ($6.35)

RF: Elijah Dukes (Minimum)

CF: Nyjer Morgan (Minimum)

LF: Josh Willingham (2nd year of Arb.)

Bench:

UTL: Willie Harris (signed for 2010 for $1.5 million)

C: Wil Nieves (1st year of Arb.)

OF: Justin Maxwell (Minimum)

INF: Alberto Gonzalez (Minimum)

Starters:

SP: John Lannan (1st year of Arb.)

SP: Scott Olsen (2nd year of Arb.)

SP: Garrett Mock (Minimum)

SP: JD Martin (Minimum)

SP:  Craig Stammen (Minimum)

Bullpen:

RP: Mike MacDougal

RP: Sean Burnett

RP: Saul Rivera

RP: Jason Bergmann

RP: Tyler Clippard

Other arms: Colin Balester, Sharion Martis, Ross Detwiler, Matt Chico

Obviously that’s not a pretty roster and the Nats will be making some upgrades through free agency and trades. Areas of concern:  2B, back-up catcher, at least two starters, and additional arms in the bullpen. I think Wil Nieves is a likely non-tender candidate (though they should try to resign him as a minor league FA). Bergmann, Olsen and MacDougal could all be non-tendered as well, but given the Nats lack of quality pitchers I don’t see them giving them up for nothing. Given Flores’s injury problems the past two years, the Nationals need to find a more reliable option behind the plate to back-up Flores. While there are a number of veteran catching options, most of them don’t make too much sense for the Nationals. One that does make sense is Gregg Zaun, who in 90 games last season put up some solid offensive numbers. He’s always been solid behind the plate, and his veteran presence should help Flores develop, and make the Nationals young pitchers more comfortable.

As for 2nd base, the Nationals have a couple of good options to pursue in free agency. Their primary target should be Orlando Hudson, with Placido Polanco as their fall back option. Hudson is a solid defender (though a bit overrated in that department) and would fit in nicely as the National’s 2 hole hitter. The only real concern with either Hudson or Polanco is they are Type A free agents and will require draft pick compensation (for the Nats it will be their 2nd round pick). Now usually I’m against a rebuilding team giving up a draft pick for a short term free agent fix, but here I think the Nats should make an exception. Two of the next tier of free agents are Ronnie Belliard and Felipe Lopez, but the Nats have been down those roads before.

As for pitching, the Nationals could use at least two additional starters, as their isn’t a sure thing in their rotation outside of John Lannan. The general thinking is that Washington will sign one pretty big name free agent starter and one lower end veteran. For the bigger name I think the Nationals should stay away from John Lackey and Randy Wolf since both are Type A free agents, and will cost the Nationals their 2nd round pick. I would target the 2nd tier of starters with John Garland as my primary option. Others that fit the profile would be Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis, and Vicente Padilla. Other additional arms that could be interesting are a group all with major injury concerns, headlined by Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, and Justin Duchscherer. Now all four of those pitchers have great upside, but are held back by their injury issues. Given the uncertainty of their production this year, I think the Nats should go with a starter with a better track record. Now if the prices fall on any of these free agents the Nats should look to move in for them to be their other starting acquisition.

As for the relievers, I think the Nats should stay away from any of the Type A guys, unless they aren’t offered arbitration (which negates the draft pick compensation). As for the other relievers on the market, I’d target Brandon Lyon, Kiko Calero, Fernando Rodney, and Bob Howry. Rodney could be a solid closing option for Washington, next season, and the rest of the guys would go a long way to strengthening a big weakness for the Nationals.

So far I’ve talked about what the Nationals will do, now I’m gonna give some options of what the Nats should do. Here are a couple of trade proposals and the resulting consequences that can make the Nats better in 2010 and a competitor in the near future.

Trade 1: Adam Dunn to the Baltimore Orioles for Sp David Hernandez (MLB), RP Dennis Safarte (MLB), RP/SP Radhames Liz (MLB), and SS Pedro Florimon (A+) or C Caleb Joseph (A+).

Why it makes sense: Dunn is in the final year of his deal that is back loaded ($12.00 million in 2010), and his overall value is hurt by his horrid defense. He has already been regulated to first base duty, and is really much better suited in the AL where he can DH. Dunn’s value will only decrease as the season goes on, and the Nats mind as well get some value for him now. This O’s trade offer won’t blow anyone away, but given the price tag, lack of position, and only one year remaining, it seems like pretty fair value. Hernandez would actually be the Nats 2nd best starter, at least until they sign a free agent. Safarte and Liz haven’t lived up to their potential, but give the Nationals something they’ve lacked; hard throwers in their bullpen. Florimon is a solid young prospect with a ton of upside. He plays a premium position and gives the Nats a good position prospect. The Nats won’t be able to get any of the O’s young stars, or any of their top 5 prospects, leaving them with quantity over quality.

Aftermath: The Nats improve their rotation and bullpen, and while the upside is limited it is an improvement for Washington. Florimon gives them depth in the minors as well. In addition, the Nats save $12 million dollars next season, which will give them the flexibility to address a number of issues. First they should sign Adam LaRoche to fill Dunn’s shoes at first. LaRoche can’t match Dunn’s offensive output, but he holds his own with the bat. LaRoche also is a superior defender than Dunn (not a great glove, but average), making them more comparable. The Nationals can then use the rest of their savings to add better talent at other positions.

Trade 2: The Nats trade SS/2B Christian Guzman to the Reds for either SP Bronson Arroyo or SP Aaron Harang

Why it makes sense: The Nats best middle infield defense is with Desmond and a free agent at 2nd base (see above). Playing Guzman hurts the Nationals already fragile rotation with his negative defense. Unfortunately for the Nats Guzman’s $8 million salary makes him pretty untradeable, accept for another undesirable contract. This is where Arroyo or Harang come in. Both are solid pitchers, but definitely overpaid. And the Reds are a team that is looking to slash payroll. A Guzman for Arroyo swap would save the Reds $5 million over the next two years (he has a $2 million buyout in 2011). Moving Harang would save $6.5 million over two years ($2 million buyout in 2011, like Arroyo). At the same time each team would fill a need, the Nats would get a veteran starter and the Reds would get some production out of their SS position. If the Nats were smart they would make it a larger trade involving 2B Brandon Phillips and giving up a couple of prospects. This way they could ignore the higher priced free agent market (and giving up a draft pick) for a quality 2B. Other bad contract options to move Guzman for would be Nate Robertson or Jeremy Bonderman from the Tigers or Jake Westbrooke from the Indians.

3rd Trade: The Nats trade Justin Maxwell, Michael Burgess (A+) (or some other upside prospect), and Luis Atilano (AA) to the Royals for OF David DeJesus

Why it makes sense: David DeJesus, as Fangraphs showed is an extremely underrated and underpaid corner outfielder. He would be a nice upgrade for the Nationals over Elijah Dukes. The Nats could use a better defensive outfield, which DeJesus would automatically provide. While he’s not a power hitting corner outfielder, he does have plenty of offensive upside. DeJesus is available because the Royals are another team that needs to cut payroll. DeJesus will make over $10.5 million over the next two seasons, so the Royals would do well to capitalize on him while they can. The Nats package is a little light I will admit, but seemingly DeJesus is undervalued throughout the league. I’m sure the deal would have to be tweaked some, but DeJesus is exactly the type of player the Nats should look to add.

That’s how I’d fix the Nationals. What do you think? Can Washington improve to a .500 showing this season?

With the World Series over the offseason begins and baseball’s free agency period begins in two weeks. The Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox got an early start as they look to shape their roster to knock off the Yankees next season. The Angels resigned outfielder Bobby Abreu to a 2-year, $19 million deal. The Red Sox on the other hand looked outside their organization, trading for outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins, for a pair of left-handed minor league pitchers, Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

The Angels move to resign Abreu was pretty smart on their part. Despite being 35, (and 36 when the 2010 season starts) Abreu would have been one of the most coveted hitters on the open market, given his patience and production at the plate. Last season Abreu posted a .293/.390/.435 line (ba/obp/slug), with 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 38 attempts. Abreu is the model of consistency, since 1998, (his first year as a starter) his batting average has never dipped below .283, his on base percentage has always been .370 or higher, and his career slugging percentage is .493. Abreu’s defense has fallen, but his offensive ability still makes him a very productive outfielder. The Angels now have Abreu for at least two more years at $9 million a year. In 2012, they have a $9 million option or a $1 million buyout, guaranteeing Abreu at least $19 million.  Last season Abreu was one of the last free agents to sign, settling for a bargain basement 1 year, $5 million deal, so this was a smart signing for Abreu as well. He may have gotten more money for one year, but he got a second year plus the buyout. On top of that, the option year becomes guaranteed with either 550 plate appearances in 2011 or 1,100 over the next two years. Considering he had over 660 last year, that option will be guaranteed barring some serious injury. The Angels can now focus on their pitching staff, that is in danger of losing ace John Lackey, and their third base spot, where Chone Figgins is a potential free agent.

The Red Sox on the other hand bought themselves some protection in case their top free agent, Jason Bay, decides to move on to greener pastures. Hermida was once a top prospect in the Marlins system, but has never fully capitalized on his potential. He’s been an average defensive outfielder and a solid hitter, but has lacked the power or consistency for a corner outfield spot. 2007 was his best year when he hit .296/.369/.501, but his numbers have dropped since then making him too expensive for the Marlins to offer arbitration too this year, leading to the trade. In reality, he’s not a starter on a playoff caliber team, but there is nothing wrong with the Red Sox hoping that a change of scenery can jump start a young player’s career. Boston should still be looking for a full time replacement for Bay if he leaves, but Hermida could maybe be a platoon option if a starter can’t be found. Hermida hits righties pretty well (though far from spectacular), if Boston can find someone to face lefties, they could still get good production out of left field this season. Hermida is a solid player to have on the bench for Boston, especially when you consider that J.D. Drew has missed at least 22 games in each of his three years with the Red Sox. Given the fact the Red Sox didn’t trade away anything significant I think this is a solid win for Boston, as they look to reshape the roster.