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Morning Links: Broncos Lock Up Champ, Panthers Tag Kalil

February 23, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

CHAMP RETURNS TO DENVER:

Champ Bailey agreed to a 4 year deal for over $40 million to return to the Denver Broncos. Denver has now locked up one corner position, but still has a serious need at the other spot. While it is pricey this is a great deal for the Broncos, as they couldn’t afford to lose one of their few star players. The contract should also give Denver flexibility for the future as Bailey is set to make $15 million this season, meaning his remaining three years will be below market value. I like it when teams front load a veteran’s contract so he isn’t overpaid when his skills decline. While some might say that the $15 million is too much, but the franchise tag for corners is in that market, and Bailey is easily one of the top 5 corners still in this league. One interesting thing to note is the fact that Bailey cited the labor uncertainty as to why he resigned now. This could lead to a small wave of signings heading into early next week when the CBA expires. I wouldn’t expect many more big names, but some solid starters and role players might decide they want to resign now before the market is potentially flooded.

PANTHERS FRANCHISE CENTER RYAN KALIL:

In a bit of a surprise move the Carolina Panthers decided to place the franchise tag on center Ryan Kalil. Now it isn’t to say that Kalil isn’t a franchise (aka top 5 center), but rather they deemed him more valuable than either RB DeAngelo Williams or DE Charles Johnson. Now logically it makes sense to use the tag on an offensive lineman over a running back like Williams. Williams is a very talented running backs, but backs typically have shorter NFL careers, and the Panthers are still pretty well set in the backfield. The more surprising move is letting Johnson hit free agency. Johnson came out of Julius Peppers shadow quite nicely and was an elite pass rusher for the Panthers. And in fact was probably their most dominate player last season. His 11.5 sacks were 8 more than the next closest player on the Panthers, and was part of a 3-way tie for 7th in the league. Whats even more impressive is the fact that he did it on one of the worst defenses in the league, with zero help from the interior of the Panthers defensive line. The Panthers have some defensive end depth, but they weren’t able to find a consistent starter opposite Johnson, now they need to replace him? The other thing that makes placing the Franchise tag on Kalil odd is it guarantees him a top 5 offensive line salary (the average of), which includes all offensive linemen. Like it or not, centers are never viewed in the same light as tackles so now the Panthers have to pay their center tackle money. A case can be made to make Kalil the highest paid center, but to put him on par with the league’s top OT’s is a bit of an overpayment.


Quick Thoughts on NBA Free Agency Moves:

July 11, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The “Heat” is on: Not only did Miami land the top three free agents, but they landed them at a reduced rate…. How bad does the Amare Stoudemire contract look now? Now the Heat have money to play with and they have done well with it. Landing Mike Miller an ultimate sniper from the wing. He won’t get many shots given his teammates, but the ones he does have will be WIDE OPEN. Miller is a good fit because he can shoot cold and doesn’t need a high volume of shots. The Heat have more money and are looking at point guards and or bringing back Haslem. Personally I think they should invest in a pair of centers. Bosh has already stated he doesn’t want to play too much center, and point guard isn’t as much of a need as its made out to be. For one thing Mario Chalmers can play, he might never be an All-Star but he should be able to handle the point. Another thing is that Wade and James are such good ball handlers, that they can run the offense. Signing a Derek Fisher looks good on paper, but he isn’t going to be able to guard Rose or Rondo, so whats the point. You might not find a great center, but at least a big body can give you some fouls when you face an elite big man.

Knicks Continue to Move On: I credit New York for making the most of a bad situation. First they do a great sign and trade with the Warriors now they land Raymond Felton for 2 years. Felton isn’t a top notch point guard, but he isn’t too bad either. At over $7 million a year the Knicks didn’t really overpay and the short contract allows them to have cap flexiblity for the future (Chris Paul in two years??). The Knicks are also taking a flyer on a Russian big man, Timofey Mozgov, which could end up being a steal if he reaches his potential. Regardless the Knicks have done well not to over pay players or get stuck with any long term deals (with the exception of Amare).

Undrafted to Big Bucks: Jazz restricted free agent guard Wesley Mathews signed a 5 year $34 million offer sheet with the Portland Trail Blazers. Mathews was a rookie last season, but given the crack scouting of NBA scouting directors he went undrafted. He only ended up being a starter on a playoff team, and now is a restricted free agent that will be cashing in. A $7 million average is very good money for only one year of production, but I think he could be worth it. The Jazz have one week to decide whether or not to match the offer for their young G/F, either way Mathews is in a great spot.

Free Agency And Trade Roundup:

March 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Seahawks trade Seneca Wallace to the Browns for a conditional 2011 draft pick:

This is a great deal for the Browns, assuming that the conditional pick is in the late to mid rounds of the 2011 draft. Wallace knows Holmgren and the West Coast Offense pretty well from their days together in Seattle. While he’s not an elite quarterback, he should do well to hold down the job until a long term solution can be found. Wallace is extremely athletic, which will help make up for his lack of natural quarterback skills. Holmgren did a great job of acquiring Wallace for a conditional pick next year, now the trade will be based on merit, instead of surrendering an asset this season. The Browns have done an impressive job of stockpiling draft picks this year, and by not touching them, Cleveland can be one of the movers and shakers on draft day. The extra selections will also allow Holmgren to clean house and bring in his players. The addition of Wallace knocks down the need for a quarterback a little on the Browns off season plan, likely Cleveland will now be targeting one with one of their 3rd round picks as opposed to grabbing one in the first two rounds. Wallace also means that Derek Anderson is packing his bags, and will be released any day now. And Brady Quinn might not be too far behind him, though he is more likely to be traded.

Eagles trade Reggie Brown to the Buccaneers for a 2011 6th round pick:

This is a solid move for Tampa Bay. Though Brown had never lived up to his 2nd round draft status, he has had some productive seasons with the Eagles. With recent additions though, Brown has fallen down the depth chart, so a new start is exactly what he he needs. Tampa didn’t surrender much at all to get Brown, who has a very reasonable long term contract. The Buccaneers had perhaps the worst receiving corps in the league last year, and are losing their top target (Antonio Bryant) in free agency. Brown isn’t the solution by himself, but he does bring some talent to the position.

Steelers re-sign Ryan Clark:

The Steelers did a great job of laying in the weeds on this one. Clark seemed all but gone, as he was taking visits and scheduling other ones, but the Steelers were always still in the hunt. Pittsburgh will be revamping their corner backs, so losing their safety would have created a big hole in the secondary. It was also a good move for Clark to back to Pittsburgh, where he’s experienced his greatest success. The Steelers aggressive defense utilizes Clark’s strengths well, and helps cover up his deficiencies in pass coverage. This should be a good signing for both sides.

Steelers sign (re-sign) Antwan Randle El:

This is a big of a surprise move for both Pittsburgh and Randle El. Now that’s not to say Randle El isn’t valuable, in fact I think he was one of the better unrestricted free agent receivers available (a much better option than Nate Burleson), but I just don’t see where Randle El fits in Pittsburgh. Surprisingly last season Pittsburgh was a throwing team, and while options were limited, it didn’t seem to affect the passing attack too much. Tight end Heath Miller really stepped up his game last season and became a great target in the middle of the field. Also 3rd round pick Mike Wallace came out of no where to be Pittsburgh’s primary deep threat. At the same time Santonio Holmes put together another wonderful season and led the Steelers with over 1,200 yards. While some might say Hines Ward is getting up there in age and has lost a step, it wasn’t too apparent last year when he caught 95 balls and had over 1,100 yards. He might not stretch the field as he once did, but he is still a fantastic possession receiver.

While its good to add depth, the signing of Randle El comes one day after Pittsburgh signed free agent Arnaz Battle from San Francisco. Its hard to see where the catches Randle El and Battle get in this offense will come from. Only 62 of the 351 completed passes last year went to other targets then the Steelers big four, and almost all of those went to running backs. With Mike Wallace likely seeing more balls thrown his way and Ward, Holmes and Miller all still playing at a premium level, its hard to see Randle El getting more than 20-25 catches this season. He likely could have found a much better situation on the open market, but I do understand how returning to Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense to Randle El. The biggest winner in this deal are the Steeler fans, because the return of Randle El and the signing of Battle means that Limas Sweed has played his last game in Black and Gold.

NFL Bargain Shopping

March 8, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With most of the top free agents signed here is the look at the best values available at each position.

Quarterback:  Troy Smith Restricted Free Agent (5th round):  Smith might be a restricted free agent, but I’d be willing to bet the Ravens would negotiate a price lower than a 5th round pick. Even if you did have to pay a 5th rounder for him, it isn’t that steep of a price. Smith is young, offers exceptional leadership and work ethic. He was a winner in college and has been on a winning team in the pros, so I don’t think anyone can question his desire. Smith is also extremely athletic and quick, which will buy him time to make plays out of the pocket and with his feet. He’s not an ideal option for a long term starter, but would be a good stopgap for a team bringing in a rookie quarterback. A three year contract, would allow the rookie time to develop. Smith’s speed and athleticism will allow him to have a specialty role once the rookie becomes a starter.

Running back:  Thomas Jones UFA:  Jones has been the Jets work horse these past couple of seasons, and despite entering his 30′s he has still racking up 1,000 yard seasons. Jones gained over 1,400 yards last year at 4.2 yards per carry. Though he can probably no longer shoulder the load on his own, he could still be good for 250-275 carries the next 2-3 years. He is the best option for a starting running back on the open market by far, now that Chester Taylor has been signed.

Wide Receiver:  Antonio Bryant UFA:  Bryant is a mixed bag, in terms of talent he can be elite, but his work ethic and mental aspect of the game leave a lot to be desired. I would try to limit the guaranteed money as much as possible for this season, that way you can cut him next year if he doesn’t pan out. I’d also try to have as much incentives as possible in the deal to get him to continuously work hard. That being said, with all the big name receivers being restricted free agents and not a very top heavy draft class, Bryant is your best bet at wide receiver. He can stretch the field and at the same time has the size to exploit corner backs.

Tight End:  Alge Crumpler UFA:  Crumpler used to be one of the elite tight ends in the league, and while the time of him being a primary option has passed him by, he can still be an effective part of the offense. He can’t stretch the field any more, but is still a valuable pass catcher in short yardage/red zone situations. Crumpler is also still an excellent blocker which makes him the ideal number 2 tight end for most teams.

Offensive Tackle:  Mike Gandy UFA:  Gandy has been a solid left tackle in the league for a number of years. I might be time for him to move to the other side of the line, but he’s still a quality starter in this league. He should still have another 3-4 years left in the tank, and has overall an limited injury history.

Offensive Guard:  Bobbie Williams UFA:  Williams is getting up there in age, and the skills have diminished somewhat, but he is still the top guard on the open market. Williams is still an elite run blocker that can eat up any defender in his way. Williams is ideally suited for power blocking teams, limiting the number of interested parties.

Center:  Kevin Mawae UFA:  Mawae is not the center he once was, but he is still a quality starting lineman in the NFL. He brings veteran leadership and work ethic to whatever team signs him. He could probably still give another 2 years of starting caliber play to a team.

Defensive End:  Derrick Burgess UFA:  Burgess is a hybrid DE/OLB but could fit on just about any team. He can a very good pass rusher, though consistency has been an issue. He’s more ideally suited to be on a team with one or two ‘elite’ defenders that will take the attention of the better lineman and double team’s. If Burgess can work one-on-one against the right tackle he will win most of those battles. Though known primarily as a pass rusher, he’s pretty solid in run support as well.

Defensive Tackle:  Cory Redding UFA:  Redding was a huge bust in Seattle, which will bring his price down and make him a major diamond in the rough. He was considered a top DE/DT in Detroit just two years ago, and should be one of the best low risk/high reward options on the market. He might be best suited for a 3-4 DE role, but he can do some damage as a defensive tackle as well. Redding is a good defender, but he isn’t strong enough or quick enough to beat interior double teams.

Outside Linebacker:  Keith Bulluck UFA:  Bulluck has been one of the best linebackers in the league for the past 8 years, but age and injury will depress his value this offseason. Age alone isn’t that big of an issue, since he should still be effective for another 3-4 years. The real problem is Bulluck is coming off an ACL injury in December and he won’t be ready in time for training camp. Though it will be hard to know what type of player he will be when he comes back, Bulluck is worth the risk for some team.

Inside Linebacker:  Larry Foote UFA:  Foote’s best season’s were in the Steelers 3-4 alignment and while he showed he can handle being the man in the middle of a 4-3 last season he wasn’t nearly as effective (part of that could be he was playing in Detroit). He’s not an elite starter, but he’s developed into a pretty good one. He’s a sure tackler that is pretty good in coverage as well.

Corner back: Phillip Buchanon UFA:  Buchanon isn’t as good of a corner as Leigh Bodden, but he will come at a fraction of the cost. He had a solid year in Detroit last season despite the Lions not getting any sort of pressure on the quarterback. He shouldn’t be a team’s number one corner, but he’s a good 2nd or 3rd corner for most teams in the league.

Safety:  O.J. Atogwe RFA (first refusal):  The Rams made a risky decision to allow Atogwe to be a restricted free agent without compensation. Now St. Louis could still keep him by agreeing to sign him for whatever contract another team negotiates, but there are plenty of ways around that. Atogwe is one of the better free safeties in the league, a true ball hawk. He gets somewhat overlooked because he’s been on an awful Rams team his whole career. His price tag will be down somewhat because he’s coming off a bad shoulder injury, but there is no reason to think it will affect him long term.

Free Agency Period Begins

March 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Typically when the NFL Free Agency period begins (aka one of the top 5 days of the year), there is a mad dash for the top talent available, and at least one big name will have already inked their name on a new contract. This year was a bit different, in the opening hours of free agency we’ve seen only one noteable player change teams, WR Nate Burleson who is now heading to the Lions. Even still there have been some interesting developments that deserve a mention from the last 24 hours.

Lions Sign Burleson:  Burleson was one of the top unrestricted free agent wide receivers available, but that doesn’t exactly mean he is worth $25 million over 5 years. Burleson has had just one productive season in the last 5 (and one semi-productive season as well), and has dealt with some serious injuries. What’s even more interesting is Burleson was widely considered a free agent ‘bust’ in Seattle, yet somehow can still get $25 million out of the Lions. Sure Burleson is an ‘upgrade’ to the Lions receiving corps, but who isn’t? Burleson isn’t a true number 2 and now the Lions owe quite a bit of money to Dennis Northcutt, Bryant Johnson and Burleson to not take any pressure off number one wideout Calvin Johnson. The Lions probably could have spent half of that to sign someone like Chris Chambers or Antwan Randle El, either one would have offered just as much chance of being a ‘solid’ number 2 without the high price tag or the injury history.

Jets Trade for Cromartie:  Antonio Cromartie was considered one of the league’s top corners just two seasons ago. Since then there have been some issues about work ethic and teams have found some holes in his game. I would expect Cromartie to get back to elite status this season for a number of reasons. First off, AC couldn’t be in a better situation. Now he will play opposite from the best corner back in the league in Darrelle Revis, Cromartie will no longer be forced to shadow other teams’ top wide receivers. The Jets aggressive defense should also allow Cromartie to take advantage of a couple of mistakes this season, and if anyone can get Cromartie to play to his full potential it is Rex Ryan. In addition to being in a great situation, Cromartie will be a free agent after next season, giving him plenty of incentive to get back to All-Pro form. For the young and talented Cromartie, the Jets only had to give up a conditional 2011 3rd round pick. Now the pick can move up to a 2nd round pick based on benchmarks hit by Cromartie and the Jets, but if so that will mean its a late 2nd rounder. To get a player of Cromartie’s caliber for just a late future 2nd round pick is a huge steal for New York. If Mark Sanchez can begin to start playing up to his ‘franchise quarterback’ label, the Jets should be one of the AFC favorites next season.

Redskins Revamp Roster, Potentially Not Big Players In The Market:  The Washington Redskins cut ties with 10 players yesterday and resigned two as free agency began. Notable among the cuts we back-up quarterback Todd Collins, WR Antwan Randle El, OG Randy Thomas, RBs Rock Cartwright and Ladell Betts, CB Fred Smoot, and DT Cornelius Griffin. Outside of Griffin, none of those cuts could be considered much of a surprise. Thomas and Betts have been injured far to often, Smoot and Randle El were way too pricey for their production, and Cartwright and Collins were luxury items who weren’t gonna cut it in the new Redskins system under Shannahan. Griffin though has been a good player for the Skins, but given his age and the likely switch to the 3-4, he was expendable.

The Redskins did resign their top unrestricted free agent Center Casey Rabach to a three-year deal. Rabach is starting to show is age, but its not a blockbuster deal by any means. Also there wasn’t much of an upgrade in way of free agency this season, and not a particularly strong draft class for centers, leaving the Skins with few options. Washington also resigned “Mr. Do Everything” Lorenzo Alexander. Alexander, who has seen time on special teams, jumbo formations, at defensive end, and defensive tackle will now also work as a rush linebacker in the 3-4. His athleticism, work ethic and versatility make him a valuable player for the Redskins and a solid investment for 3 years.

Despite the flurry of moves yesterday the biggest news coming out of Redskins Park might be the rumor that the Redskins won’t be going after any of the top name free agents. This rumor flies in the face of not only what everyone expects in Washington, but what we have heard so far this offseason, with the Redskins attached to every big name free agent. Now I applaud some fiscal responsibility, the list of cuts and the 4-12 record show what happens when you don’t use your money wisely, but it also worries me. If it is true that would take them out of the running for the top two free agents, Julius Peppers (who I like but don’t love for the Skins) and Karlos Dansby (who I absolutely love and think is a tremendous player) and puts them in the market for 2nd tier free agents. Now you can find some excellent values in the 2nd tier of the market, but I’m worried about the first name the Skins are linked to.

Offensive tackle Chad Clifton will be visiting Redskins Park today, and likely could end up leaving wearing Burgundy and Gold. Clifton might be the top unrestricted tackle on the market, and the Redskins do have a serious need there. But there should be a number of red flags for Redskin fans (and of course the team themselves). The first being Clifton’s age, he will be 34 next season and the last couple early 30′s offensive linemen the Redskins have relied on have not turned out too well. John Jansen, Randy Thomas, and Chris Samuels all saw their career’s collapse quickly do to injury and age, going back into that well is not the solution to the Redskins offensive lineman woes. Clifton already has had some injury issues and it is hard to believe that he could be effective for any contract longer than 2 years. Also, should we really be outbidding the Packers for Chad Clifton? The Packers were one of the few teams that had an offensive line worse than the Redskins last season, and while Clifton might have been the only good player on that offensive line, doesn’t he mean more to them then he would to us? Can we really say that paying Clifton more than the Packers is fiscal responsibility? The Packers are a playoff caliber team, that has a greater need for a quality tackle to help them get back to the postseason. Also, unlike the Redskins, they pick in the mid 20′s in the draft and won’t be able to get one of the top offensive tackles to replace him. The biggest red flag for Redskins fans, is what this will mean for the rest of their offseason, particularly the draft.

The Redskins will now almost assuredly draft their ‘franchise’ quarterback with the 4th overall pick, ignoring the needs at offensive tackle or trading back for additional draft picks to fill multiple positions. Rookie quarterback (if they play at all) aren’t successful their first season with very few exceptions, and only a handful more become successes in year two. It really isn’t until the third or fourth year until you will know whether a quarterback will make it or not in this league, especially when we are talking about a rebuilding team like the Redskins. So basically the Redskins will ignore the chance to fill multiple holes with the value of their 4th overall pick, and draft a player who won’t help them succeed these next two seasons, which will be the only two years that you can feel confident in your blindside protection.

The Campbell Conundrum

March 4, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Washington Redskins made a significant move yesterday when they were tagging their restricted free agents, when they placed a first round tender offer on Jason Campbell. All along you knew that Campbell was going to get tagged and would be a restricted free agent come Saturday, what was significant is the level they ‘tagged’ him at.

Teams have the option of extending a tender offer for the original round the player was drafted in, a 3rd round offer, a 2nd round offer, a 1st round offer or a 1st and a 3rd round offer. As the compensation increases, the money in the contract offer sheet is higher. The way restricted free agency works is a player is allowed to talk with any other team and negotiate a contract, then after they agree to terms, their original team has one week to decide between three options. First, they can sign the player to the contract that the other team negotiated, meaning if that player was to get a check for $15 million in year one, they have to pay that and have no recourse to change it. Their 2nd option is to simply let the player go and get what ever draft pick back in return. The third option is a bit tricky, but practical, and that is to ‘trade’ the rights of the player. Sometimes the team signing a player would rather give up multiple picks, in later rounds then one high draft pick, or they might not even have a pick in the round they are supposed to send to the original team, so they work out a trade.

So the Redskins decided to forego tagging Campbell at the highest possible tender level (1st and 3rd round), and as we know that decision didn’t have anything to do with money. Despite all the talk coming out of Redskins Park lately that Campbell will most likely ‘be with the team’ next year, yesterday’s tender offer makes me think that’s not the case (as it should be). If the Skins were so adamant with keeping Campbell, they first off wouldn’t even let him hit free agency. Secondly, if they did let him reach the market they would have extended the 1st and 3rd round offer, pretty much ensuring that Campbell remains in DC next year if they want him. The first and third round offer, would have pretty much meant the only way Campbell would leave is if another team trades for him. Now I think its much more likely that JC is taking his game to another team next year.

I would say a trade is a more likely scenario since most of the teams in need of quarterbacks pick early and won’t want to give up a top pick. The Rams, Seahawks (also pick 14), Browns and Bills could all potentially be interested in a new quarterback. The Raiders and Jaguars are also lesser possibilities, the Jags could use an upgrade over Garrard whom they seem unhappy with, and the Raiders could use Campbell’s big arm to throw to all those speedy receivers. Other teams that could use a quarterback upgrade include the 49ers (13th and 17th), Cardinals (26th) and the Vikings (30th). Now I don’t think any team would give up a top 15 pick for Campbell, so that eliminates everyone but the Cardinals and Vikings from signing Campbell outright (the 49ers 17th pick comes from Carolina meaning it would have to be a trade, since they would owe their pick if they signed him outright). Campbell would be a nice fit on a number of these teams.

Jason Campbell is far from an elite quarterback, but he’s hardly a bad one either, he’s put up good numbers and kept the Redskins competitive these last couple of seasons despite playing on a below average offense. Despite being 4-12 this year, the Skins were in pretty much every game this season with the exception of the Giants and Cowboys games. If the Redskins had an NFL offensive line, a consistent running game and at least a decent receiving corps (not to mention better play calling, and defensive backs who could do the ‘small things’ like tackle and intercept the ball), they would have at least doubled their win total. Despite all the problems around him, Campbell ended up having his best season as a Redskin, throwing for over 3,600 yards, 20 touchdowns (that’s impressive in Washington) and an 86.4 QB rating. Campbell also offers the ability to move around and scramble for some yardage when the pocket breaks down.

Now Jason Campbell is not without his detractors either. He’s not turned around a bad team like we’ve seen more elite quarterbacks do. And he seems to ‘zone in’ on particular receivers and force the ball to them (though that could be because Moss and Cooley were the only quality targets he had). Campbell has also grown skiddish behind the Redskins horrific offensive line, dumping the ball off the flat, instead of standing in there for another second to wait for something to open up down the field. Most of those issues could be fixed in Campbell with a better supporting cast and a coaching staff that believed in him. He might never win league MVP and might not head to too many Pro Bowls, but he definitely is a quality quarterback.

Now the question is…will another team be willing to trade for Campbell and will the Redskins be willing to accep? The answer to both questions should be yes, though when it comes to the Redskins I know they will always break my heart and do the wrong thing. Campbell is the best quarterback on the market this season, restricted or otherwise, and plenty of teams could use an upgrade behind center. The Rams sitting at the top of the draft have a major decision to be made that could be alleviated if they trade for Campbell. St. Louis is deciding between picking the player they want Suh or the player they need Bradford/Clausen. Suh is undeniably the best player in this draft, a disruptive force on defense, but he doesn’t fill the Rams biggest need of a top notch quarterback. Now there is a chance that Bradford/Clausen end up being a better quarterback than Campbell, but there is a much higher chance of them being a worse quarterback or even a bust. Additionally any rookie quarterback they draft will struggle their first year (if they play at all), Suh on the other hand will have an immediate impact and Campbell would be their starting QB. To me it is a no brainer for the Rams, they can address their quarterback issue immediately, and get the best player in the draft (this scenario could be played out the same way for any of the top 10 teams, though others might have to give a bit more in return). The question becomes would the Redskins be smart enough to take a 2nd rounder and say the Rams 5th rounder for Campbell?

Hopefully the answer to that question is a resounding YES. Campbell might not be the problem in DC, but he might not be the long term solution as well. No quarterback is going to lead the Redskins to the promised land with all the holes they have on their team (and that includes drafting one with the 4th overall pick). Washington needs to rebuild, and any additional draft picks help that cause. They can spend money to acquire some top talent on defense in free agency, but they can’t rebuild their offense, in particular their offensive line. That can only be accomplished in the draft, which is where the Redskins focus should be. As for the 2nd most scrutinized job in DC, the Redskins should look to add a veteran for a year, and draft a quarterback in the rounds 3-5 (though they will need to acquire a 3rd round pick) to develop. Even if that doesn’t work out its a better use of resources than drafting a quarterback early, behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Or signing Campbell long term when you can’t acquire the pieces to build around him.

2010 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Offensive Tackles

February 16, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Tackle:

1. Jamal Brown-New Orleans: RFA, Brown is quickly becoming one of the best offensive tackles in the game. Even though he is already a restricted free agent, the Saints could even opt to Franchise him to ensure some team won’t steal him away for just a 1st and a 3rd round pick.

2. Jared Gaither- Baltimore: RFA, Another Franchise tackle in the making, Gaither and Oher give the Ravens two great young bookend tackles. There is no way Gaither isn’t in Baltimore this coming season.

3. Willie Colon-Pittsburgh: RFA, Colon isn’t a Franchise tackle, but he’s about to be paid as one, as he is the Steelers best offensive lineman. Colon has the size and skills to be a great tackle but he isn’t quite there yet.

4. Marcus McNeil- San Diego: RFA, McNeil is a very good left tackle, but struggled this past season some. That being said he’s still young and the Chargers should expect a bounce back season.

5. Chad Clifton- Green Bay: UFA, Being the top unrestricted free agent should get Clifton some interesting offers. He has somewhat of a negative injury history which will limit his offers, but he will still be pursued on the open market.

6. Tyson Clabo (Falcons) and Charlie Johnson (Colts): RFA, Clabo and Johnson are grouped together because they are solid, unspectacular tackles but will be retained because they are restricted free agents.

7. Alex Barron (Rams), Donald Penn and Jeremy Youngblood (Bucaneers), Jermon Bushrod (Saints), Jeromey Clary (Chargers), Ryan O’Callaghan (Chiefs), Dennis Roland (Bengals): RFA, I grouped these 7 tackles together because they are all restricted free agents, but it wouldn’t surprise me if at least 3 of them were playing on a different team next season. They are all young and talented and have shown an ability to start, but aren’t elite starters.

8. Mark Tauscher (Packers), Mike Gandy (Cardinals), Tony Pashos (49ers), Tra Thomas (Jaguars): UFA, All four of these tackles are borderline starters at this point, but should all find jobs given their unrestricted free agent status. Tauscher played just half a season last year for the Packers, but was their best offensive lineman for stretches. He was coming off a major knee injury, so questions should remain on whether or not he can last a whole season at that level. Gandy and Pashos took big steps backward last year, and lost their starting jobs. They are still in their early 30′s with limited injury history, so they may be able to still find a starting job, they just shouldn’t be signed for big money long term. Thomas in his prime was an elite tackle, but the game has started to pass him by.

The offensive tackle position could see a few reinforcements from players being cut, but for the most part what you see is what you will get. Most of the talent comes from restricted free agents and I can’t imagine many of those will be on the move. What is interesting is the Saints, Chargers and Tampa Bay all have 2 RFA’s starting tackles. Even without a salary cap, I could see a couple of these guys on the move if those teams don’t feel confident in investing in both tackles long term. I could see the Saints move Bushrod for a couple picks, given their tackle depth. Another interesting name to watch is Adam Terry RFA Baltimore, with their starting tackles set the Ravens could move Terry for a late round draft pick. Terry isn’t a great starter, but can back up either position and would be better than a number of starting tackles in the league.

NFL Free Agency Preview: Offense, QB’s and RB’s:

February 15, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

QB:

1. Jason Campbell- Washington Redskins: RFA, Campbell hasn’t become an elite starter by any means, but has shown he can be a 2nd tier starter in the NFL. If he goes to a team with some offensive weapons and an actual offensive line, he may lead his team deep into the playoffs.

2. Matt Moore-Carolina Panthers: ERFA, Moore supplanted Jake Delhomme last season as the Panthers starter, and should be the favorite going into this season. As an exclusive rights free agent Moore won’t be going anywhere, but the Panthers should try to lock him up for a couple years, before his price tag gets to crazy.

3. Kyle Orton-Denver Broncos: RFA, Orton had a nice first year with the Broncos, but could very well end up being the scapegoat their for their collapse. The Broncos will probably look to keep Orton as a restricted free agent for another season, but he could be on borrowed time. Orton is a solid quarterback, and probably could be successful if given enough of an opportunity.

4. Bruce Gradkowski-Oakland Raiders: RFA, Gradkowski was impressive for the Raiders before getting hurt against the Redskins. He single-handily knocked the Steelers out of the Super Bowl, by beating them in Pittsburgh late in the season. If the Raiders are smart they would give the reins to Gradkowski for a season, and see what they have.

5. Chad Pennington-Miami Dolphins: UFA, Pennington is the top unrestricted free agent, and really the last quarterback who can start on a regular basis in the NFL. Pennington should get plenty of interest from teams in transition, or developing a young quarterback. He doesn’t have a big arm, but he’s very accurate and smart.

Overall I’d expect Pennington and Campbell to change teams this offseason. The Panthers and Raiders can’t afford to let their guys go, and the Broncos will try to get the most out of the Jay Cutler deal as possible. Unlike most positions, I wouldn’t expect a boost in talent due to players who are cut. Their might be a couple veterans, but no one who should be starting 16 games.

RB:

1. Pierre Thomas-New Orleans Saints- RFA, Thomas was a major piece of the puzzle for the World Champion Saints this season. He is a tough running back, who can also be an effective part of the passing attack. If he was an unrestricted free agent he would get plenty of attention, but its doubtful he’s wearing a different uniform next season.

2. Leon Washington-New York Jets-RFA, Washington is a great utility back that can fill the role of Wildcat, return man, 3rd down back. In addition, Washington is very effective catching the ball out the the backfield and should be a nice weapon for Mark Sanchez next season. I don’t think the Jets will let him leave, even though it  might mean they have to cut Thomas Jones.

3. Darren Sproles- San Diego Chargers-RFA, Sproles is a fantastic scat back who is a threat to go the distance anytime he gets the ball in space. Most people would think he should go higher on this list, but Sproles was exposed as a running back last season. He can’t carry the load of an offense and needs to be used in special circumstances.

4. Chestor Taylor-Minnesota Vikings-UFA, Taylor like Pennington gets a huge boost in his stock because he is unrestricted. He never got much of a chance to prove himself in Minnesota, but should be a solid 2nd option in a two horse attack.

5. Jerome Harrison-Cleveland Browns-RFA, Harrison finished the year extremely strong and it should translate into a nice extension with the Browns. Harrison isn’t a complete runner, but is a pretty good option that allows the Browns to move running back down their need list.

6.  Jason Snelling-Atlanta Falcons-RFA, Snelling isn’t a game breaker, but he showed he can handle the load last season for the Falcons when Turner went down.

7. Mike Bell-New Orleans Saints-RFA, Bell showed some solid ability as Thomas’s caddy last season. Not an every down starter, he is a good back-up who can get 5-10 carries a game.

8. LenDale White-Tennessee Titans-RFA, White might be available despite being a restricted free agent given his run-ins with the coaching staff there. He’s not been happy watching Chris Johnson become a star and take away all his carries. He might get more work somewhere else, but won’t ever be an every down starter.

9. Cadillac Williams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-RFA, Williams should be ranked much higher on talent alone, but injuries and inconsistency does drop him quite a bit. Williams should be given a shot to be a top running back, but its hard to imagine him staying healthy a full season.

10. Jerious Norwood-Atlanta Falcons-RFA, Norwood is a solid option catching the ball out of the back field and as a change of pace back.

Like every position, the running backs are severely limited by the uncapped season, making a number of them restricted free agents. Now there should be a number of players released that should add a lot of depth to this position. Some backs who could be released include, Clinton Portis, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson, and maybe Reggie Bush.

Leftovers On The Hot Stove

January 23, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month, so the Hot Stove is heating up again as players scramble to find jobs and teams look to fill out their rosters. Even though most of the big names are off the board, there are still a few free agents who can help a team get over the hump next season.

Catcher:  The catcher position wasn’t strong to begin with but there are still two names on there that could be starters or at least platoon players, Rod Barajas and Yorvit Torrealba. Neither Barajas or Torrealba are great options, but they are solid veterans who offer a little bit with the bat.

First Basemen:  The first base market has dried up pretty quickly and is left to only a handful of viable options. Russell Branyan had a big year last season, but has an inconsistent past as well as some injury history. Hank Blalock is another interesting option (some might think he’s a 3B, but he can’t handle the position) with big power but little else to bring to the table. Blalock’s inability to take a walk put him and Mike Jacobs in the same category. Carlos Delgado is a nice throw back option, but no one is even sure he’s healthy enough to play in the field anymore (or to hold up for at least half the season). Ryan Garko has for quite sometime been an interesting name among first basemen. He’s always been okay defensively and has good plate recognition. His problem is his lack of power, which has decreased each of the last two years. He might end up being the best choice among whats out there given his age and lack of injury concerns.

Middle Infield:  The middle infield is actually one position that has a couple decent options for teams looking for a starter or platoon player. Ronnie Belliard (2B, UTL) is a solid veteran, and while he shouldn’t be a starter for a full season he’s a pretty decent option to give 350-400 at bats to. He can back up 3B and 1B as well, though lacks the power to play those positions long term. Belliard is a good choice for a team with a young 2B on the way that might need to start the year in the minors. Adam Kennedy (2B, 3B) had nice season last year, and showed that he can handle the hot corner for an extended look. Kennedy doesn’t have a big bat, but he’s traditionally a pretty good defender at 2B. His biggest problem is his inconsistency, the 2009 version is a great free agent buy, but if he ends up playing like the 2007 Adam Kennedy then that team is in for a big disappointment. Orlando Hudson (2B) is widely considered the best option on the market (though that might be a little high praise). Defensively he makes a number of tough plays, but misses a lot of routine ones at the same time. Offensively though he has more upside and could even be a solid 2-hole hitter. Orlando Cabrera (SS, 2B, 3B) is a former All-star, but his age is catching up with him. A position change to 2B may extend his career by a couple years. He could be a solid option for a team with unknowns at both middle infield spots. Felipe Lopez (2B, SS) is probably the best option on the market. His defense at SS is limited and for a guy with great timed speed he doesn’t get the most out of it (or much of anything), but he’s still a legitimate starter at 2B. He offers plenty of offensive upside and would be a good bottom of the order hitter for a playoff team.

Third Basemen:  Talk about a dried up market, the only players that make sense are Joe Crede (who has major health and on-base issues), Melvin Mora (whose age and defense/offense are a concern), and Miguel Tejada (who has never really played the position). Tejada in my book is the best option, his defense might be shaky and his offensive has fallen off some, but I think he can handle the hot corner.

Outfielders:  There are a few starting options still out there but lets get through the back-ups. First Randy Winn, Reed Johnson, and Eric Byrnes can all be solid defensive role player options. Jonny Gomes is a nice platoon corner outfield option. Jermaine Dye and Garrett Anderson are past the prime when they should be starting in the outfield (someone give them a DH job), but will get work given their consistent bats. Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady are the best options for teams looking for a starter. Nady is coming off an injury so, he will probably be a cheaper option. Nady offers some solid power and decent hitting numbers. His defense is average so he’s not a big liability in the field. Damon is probably the top overall player still on the market. While his range and arm regulate him to left field now, he’s a pretty good option for a team looking for a good bat. Though never a true power hitter he can hit 20-25 home runs in 550 at bats, he also has the on-base skills to go along with his moderate power. Despite being up there in age (36) Damon has a pretty clean injury history and still gets alot out of his speed (as seen in the World Series). Damon isn’t the perennial All-star he once was, but would be a great signing for 1-2 years.

Check back later for a report on the pitchers still on the market.