Easiest Road For A Number 1 seed: Tie, Kansas and Duke-

I think overall Duke and Kansas have the best brackets to propel them into the Final Four. Neither team should face much of a challenge as they advance through their bracket, and in fact I think in both cases they only have one real challenge facing them.

For Duke that challenge will come in the Sweet 16 as Texas is a team capable of matching up well with them. If they get past Texas neither of their two likely Elite 8 matchups, really scares me. UConn is a very good young team, but they are really a one man show, which I think Duke can handle. On top of that the Huskies just won 5 games in 5 days, including the last four against ranked opponents, to win the Big East Tournament. While that was an incredible feat, it might leave themselves worn down for an early exit. And although I consider San Diego State a very good team, I don’t know if they can matchup with Duke’s shooting ability.

For Kansas, their challenge probably won’t come until their Elite 8 matchup with likely Notre Dame. Notre Dame made a strong case for a potential number 1 seed, and are no doubt a dangerous team with their defense and slow tempo offense. The problem is I think Kansas is one of the better teams equipped to deal with them. Kansas is very deep and experienced so I think that will play into it. Also, they aren’t an outside shooting team, so if they can get the ball into the Morris Twins, Notre Dame can’t match up.

Hardest Road To The Final Four: Ohio State

I know Ohio State is supposed to be the number 1 overall seed, but it sure doesn’t seem like they are. Their 2nd round matchup is dangerous no matter who they face. George Mason has shown before what happens when you take them too lightly. Mason doesn’t have the greatest size and speed, but then again neither do the Buckeyes. Mason plays great team basketball, and have a couple excellent shooters. Villanova on the other hand looks like an easier opponent, b/c they only finished .500 in conference play, and have lost their last 5 straight, but I wouldn’t count them out. They have good veteran talent, and a very good starting 5, with three talented guards and two big men. They have a fairly weak bench, especially among their bigs, but if they aren’t in foul trouble they are dangerous. Either game could be a major hurdle for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s road doesn’t get any easier as both their Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups look pretty difficult. In the Sweet 16, they will either face Kentucky or WVU, two teams with talent and very good coaching. Both have some flaws, but are real threats to Ohio State. In the Elite 8, both UNC and Syracuse are talented, balanced teams that can upset Ohio State.

Tough But Doable Path To the Final Four: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have some tough matchups, but overall the path is doable for them. They could face a battle in round two against either last year’s Cinderella, Butlter, or Old Dominion. ODU also has the advantage of playing very close to home, so they should have a favorable crowd. While Pitt is better than either of those teams, they aren’t going to just flat out dominate them. In the Sweet 16 the Panthers could face a Kansas State team, that knocked off Kansas or a Wisconsin team that beat Ohio State. At the same time though there is such parity in this bracket that both of those teams could end up losing to either Utah State or Belmont, who are legit Cinderella team’s in their own right. In the bottom of the bracket, 2 seed Florida is a bit overseeded, but they do possess some serious future NBA talent on that roster. Three seed BYU, could be a bit short-handed, but when you have the game’s best scorer, you can never be counted out. Also, don’t forget that one of Pitt’s few losses came at the hands of 6th seed St. John’s. St. John’s is an inside/outside team with a great coach and a lot of veterans. They have a bit of an uphill climb, but they are talented to make a run.

Here we go again! The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels will face off for the third time, in the past two months. Right now the season series is split at 1-1, with each team winning their home contest. In the last 14 years either Duke or UNC has been in this championship game, and they walked away with the title in 13 of them. Today marks the first time in a decade that these two bitter rivals will face off for the Championship game, and I’d expect it to be a game that lives up to its billing.

I know that it’s easy to give the nod to North Carolina considering they dominated Duke just a week ago, and in the first meeting were in control for the majority of the game. That being said this Duke team is a dangerous, that has a lot of talent and is capable of big runs to overcome any deficit. Although these are the last two NCAA Champions, Duke has the distinct edge in terms of experience. In the end though I do think North Carolina will win this game, but its not a given. Here are their keys to the game:

1. Play your game and don’t let the setting psyche you out:

More of Duke’s team was here last year and in the NCAA Championship as well, as opposed to the UNC players from two years ago. North Carolina does rely a lot on their young talent so they need to ensure that they don’t get overwhelmed. The Tar Heels need to establish their game and tempo, forcing Duke on the defensive. When the Heels have done that this season, they are basically unstoppable, and it showed in the second Duke game. If North Carolina can comeout and do the same things early on then I see them having the lead throughout this game.

2. Let the big men play:

This game very well could end up, having the matchup in the middle deciding who wins. Both teams have two quality bigs, but I think UNC is in the better position here. Tyler Zeller and John Henson offer better size and length than their Duke counter parts, as well as superior athleticism. Zeller is a 7-footer with a surprisingly good offensive game. John Henson, despite not being the strongest player on the court very well could be the best rebounder. He has developed extremely well this season, and should be a force this afternoon. The Tar Heels are a little thin inside, so they will need to watch getting into foul trouble, but overall I like the chances of the UNC bigs over the Duke bigs.

3. Let Harrison Barnes Run Free:

Duke’s biggest question is who will stop Barnes, with the easy answer of nobody. No single player on Duke can guard Barnes one-on-one, which means UNC needs to exploit this matchup as much as possible. Barnes is showing why he is one of the best freshmen in the game, and is coming off a 40 point performance against Clemson. If Duke decides to focus too much attention on Barnes, then I really think that will open things up for the rest of the team. While Barnes is capable of scoring anywhere, I’d bring him inside some and get him driving to the hoop early. First that sets the tone, and secondly it should force a couple of extra fouls from the Blue Devils big men, which could keep them on the bench for longer. The Heels have to keep feeding Barnes, and just let his natural athletic ability take over.

Conclusion and Prediction:

I know that Duke is favored and they are no doubt a talented team, but I think the Tar Heels come away with this one. I like their front court and think they have a huge advantage there across the board. Barnes is a guy who can be a real X-factor, unless Duke finds a way to stop him, they have no shot.

North Carolina wins 81-77

By Guest Blogger Brian Murphy:

As ESPN loves to call this pivotal week in college hoops, Judgment Week is upon us.  This Saturday is absolutely stacked with great matchups around the country and I will preview some of them here.  Saturday will definitely have a feel of March and it should not disappoint.

12:00 EST: #20 Syracuse @ #11 Georgetown: Syracuse will look to stay hot on the road in the Big East as they travel to Georgetown.  The Orange won a huge game against Villanova this week in Philly and were really never down in the game.  Georgetown won the first matchup in Syracuse 64-56 behind stellar defense and evenly-distributed point scoring.  Both teams are 10-6 in the Big East this year, and this will be a huge win for either team in the standings heading closer and closer to the Big East Tournament.  There have been times this year when both teams have showed inconsistency and I really don’t know which team will show up.  I was impressed with Syracuse’s victory at Nova and look for them to pull another upset on the road if the three J’s (Jardine, Jackson, and Joseph) play within themselves and as a team.

2:00 EST: #7 BYU @ #4 San Diego St.: The highest ranked matchup of the weekend is between the two powerhouses from the Mountain West Conference.  This is a must-watch game for college fans as the West Coast gets a chance to represent their basketball.  BYU handily beat the then-undefeated Aztecs earlier this year in the Marriott Center 71-58.  Player of the Year finalist Jimmer Fredette showed the nation how great he really is by scoring 43 points in that game.  That was SDSU’s first and only loss of the season, and they have reeled off seven straight MWC wins since.  I look for this game to be closer than the first contest and coming down to the last minute.  Overall, I don’t think SDSU has an answer for Jimmer and the Cougars will get another win and take the #1 spot in the MWC standings.

2:00 EST #25 St. John’s @ #14 Villanova: St. John’s return to glory this year has really been a treat to watch.  Head coach Steve Lavin has turned around the once-prestigious program in his first year, and has made Madison Square Garden a snakepit for opponents to play in.  However, much to the chagrin of the Red Storm, this game will be in Philadelphia.  Since Villanova beat Maryland, their last out-of-conference opponent, on January 15th (capping an 11-game win streak), they have lost 6 out of the last 11 Big East games.  Five of those games were losses by 5 points or less.  After a tough loss to Syracuse on Big Monday, I look for Corey Fisher to help the Wildcats get back on track at home and hold off St. John’s in the second half.

4:00 EST: #13 Florida @ #22 Kentucky: Finally a top 25 matchup in the SEC!  The Gators (as of mid-day Thursday before their Georgia game) have won five SEC games in a row, including a two-point win over Kentucky in Gainesville.  The struggling Wildcats will be looking for revenge as the Gators come chompin’ into Rupp Arena.  Kentucky has lost five of their last ten games (all on the road and by less than four points).  As much as I want to pick the Gators again, I will have to say that Kentucky has the edge as they are 16-1 at home this season.  Their only loss was early in the season to UCONN and they have had no trouble with SEC teams at home.

9:00 EST #1 Duke @ Virginia Tech: Blacksburg, VA will be in prime “football season” form this weekend as ESPN’s College Gameday will be in town and broadcasting live inside Cassell Coliseum Saturday morning.  This will be the first and only meeting of the regular season between the Blue Devils and Hokies.  Duke has only lost one ACC game this season and has won ten straight ACC games.  Virginia Tech, yet again, finds itself in the latest bubble discussions and need a huge, quality win like this in front of the nation to solidify its spot in the NCAA Tournament.  In order for VT to pull off the upset, they need Jeff Allen to not get into foul trouble early and be a force in the paint.  Duke will pressure 1st team All-American PG Malcolm Delaney all game, so he needs to find open shots and not hesitate to bang ‘em down.  Duke’s Seth Curry has not been playing too well the last couple of games and it will be interesting to see if he steps it up in the arena where his father, Dell, excelled as an All-American for VT and drafted into the NBA.  The atmosphere will be hard to match and if Virginia Tech makes the most of their opportunities and doesn’t make stupid mistakes/turnovers, they will be in it to the end.  I’ve seen many big games come down to the wire in Cassell, and it seems as though VT hasn’t come up as the winners in many of late.  I will leave this up to everyone to predict an upset or not, as I can not pick against my Hokies!

By Guest Blogger John Manuel:

Since the Red Sox felt that Cliff Lee is going to end up with the Yankees, they went out and got Adrian Gonzalez and now Carl Crawford.  Now its the Yankees turn.  Guess they will up their offer significantly to lock up Lee, but where will it stop?  This has replacing an injured Aaron Boone with an A-Rod trade written all over it.  Yankees probably won’t stop at Lee now with Crawford on the Bo Sox.  So who will it be?  Can they reshuffle to get Prince Fielder somewhere?  Would he DH for the Yankees?  Pujols has one year left, can the Yankees trade for him?  Then what?  Will the Red Sox then go get the kid from “Rookie of the Year” who threw smoke and was unhitable?  Then the Yankees have to one up them next.   Many are killing the Nationals for the contact they gave Jayson Werth, but they wanted him and had no choice.  Otherwise he would have been a Red Sox or Yankee for sure.  Can you imagine if Joe Mauer didn’t resign in Minnesota.  What would he get from the Yankees or Red Sox?  As an Orioles fan, all I can say is that I hope I get hit with a Mark Reynolds bomb outta Camden Yards while I am walking from bar to bar in Federal Hill next season.

Many are gearing up this weekend for fantasy football playoff games.  Both my teams made the playoffs, one was quality and one with some luck.  But its a new season once the playoffs come.  Random teams can win with schmos like James Starks or Tashard Choice.  And what the f on Matt Cassel’s appendix bursting.  My money team has Dwayne Bowe and now its a tough call to even go with him this weekend.  My favorite part of fantasy is still the sh*t talk.  Crushing someone is almost as good as winning your league.  You have to jump at your opportunities like having someone else in the league ask you for lineup suggestions.  Automatic kill them…you just don’t do that.  Its fantasy football, not the Middle East Peace Process, make the decision on your own.  And you need help, read some of the 949955 different sit or start articles or at least ask someone not in your league.  Just another call out to my favorite fantasy warrior “Matzie.”   Maybe by 2014 “Matzie” will be famous for his legendary fantasy moves.

The college basketball season is young, but regretfully I have to say that Duke looks tough to take down.  I hate Duke.  I hate Coach K, respect but hate.  I hate their fans.  Kyle Singler should have been a man and declared for the draft after winning the title.  I am pretty sure he probably got his degree by now. Kyrie Irving although currently hurt looks a like a solid one and done.  The horrible rule that a player must play one year in college is a joke.  Why shouldn’t they be able to go pro out of high school?  Many are ready and going for a year is worthless.  I heard Bob Knight breakdown what it took to be eligible for the 2nd semester and you would be shocked.  Some of these guys are probably going to class and working, but why would you if you know your leaving?  I went to college.  I had better things to do than go to class.   Now back to Duke.  I look forward to the February 2nd game at Comcast.  Hopefully they come in undefeated.  Maryland is no where close to as talented as Duke right now, but with the Terps style and the Comcast energy I know we can knock them off.   My final thought on college basketball goes to ESPN.  Can you please start replacing Dick Vitale on big games with Bob Knight?  Or at least Jay Bilas?  But preferably Knight.  His game insight destroys Vitale telling us how many time Coach K is a hall of famer, or Kyle Singler is the best forward in the country.

I tried to get through this without any comment on Albert Haynesworth, but guess I can’t make it.  He sucks in all aspects.  I have no problem with anyone who blames Shanahan, but Haynesworth is the most selfish athlete I can remember.  On one side I hope they get some of the guaranteed money back, but on the other I hope they don’t.  Just to have the memory of this disaster of an acquisition.  #92 jerseys to soon be in the redskins.com store $5 bargain bin next to #55 Jason Taylors, #85 Brandon Lloyds, #40 Adam Archuletas and #30 Trung Canidates jerseys.

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Matt (aka Slick)

Bad Slick. Bad Slick. Bad Slick.  I cant help that Bama couldnt put the game away when they had the chance.  RIDICULOUS! should have been 42-7 at the half- GAME OVER… but mistakes came back to haunt them, and me.  I knew at that point that the BUFFS were turning over too, and my Saturday was falling apart as quickly as it had started.  I should have stuck to totals… but i told myself, “thats not what the people want…”

Good thing the REDWINGS beat COLUMBUS (is that a sign…Michigan/OhioST?…maybe?maybe?).  Oh well, lets get back on track and put a smile on those faces..

So, here we go… no totals.

Take MARSHALL -10 V TULANE. did you seen the green wave perform last week?  seriously?  it was UGLY, with a capital, well, everything.  The HERD in a stampede!  Take em.  Take em all day long.  Huntington,WV will be a happy place tomorrow, and so will you.

Since we are on the GREEN kick, lets add one more for good measure.  TAKE NORTH TEXAS +14 V KANSAS STATE. yes the MEAN GREEN.  Look for lots of meanness.  and a close score.  Sure the cats will probably win and shouldnt they…but the mean green will come to play.  North Texas always reminds me of Unnecessary Roughness – the movie.  (Texas State Fighting Armadillos).  Love that flick.  and Love the MEAN GREAN tomorrow.  take the 2 TDs.

Take DUKE (the football team) +7.5 V UNC.  its college basketballs biggest rivalry, and in the spirit of the beginning of college basketball, lets jump on this game.  the finals are always close, and with more than a TD on our side, we should be in good shape.  expect a close game.  UNC lost its title hopes last week to STATE, and DUKE actually has something to play for.

Finally, lets get crazy… real crazy.  lets play a game.  lets see how many points TCU can score.  50? 60? 70 maybe?  TAKE TCU – 43.5 V NEW MEXICO. yes, you heard me… lay more than 6 TDs and watch the madness unfold.  TCU will drop at least 55 on UNM, and allow only a couple FGs, at best.  Should be plenty to cover the spread.  I just wonder how you approach a game when you are favored by 43.5.

YEAH YEAH YEAH… and then there is MICHIGAN…this is my LAST CHANCE before bowl season, I KNOW.  So, you say, what happened to MICHIGAN?  the fix was in, right?  unbelievable.  even the fix wasnt good enough, and i was bitten again.  but i made a committment to this team, and I am here for you Michigan.  Vegas will pay for this.  Michigan has dropped 7 straight games AGAINST THE SPREAD.  How is that even possible.  WAKE UP VEGAS!  SERIOUSLY!  WAKE UP! Not this time, not again.  no one doesnt cover 8 straight times!  and as you all know, and the documentation will prove it, im riding this train to the last stop…so……………………………… TAKE MICHIGAN… +17.  TAKE IT ALL DAY.

WHY NOT!?

Duke may have won the National Championship yesterday, but the Butler Bulldogs are the real winners. People may say there are no moral victories in sports, but all one would have to do is watch last night’s game to prove them wrong. Now it might not be a true ‘Cinderella Story’ since Butler was a 5th seed and was a highly ranked team all year. In fact if anything, Butler should have been a 3rd or 4th seed, but wasn’t because they play in a small conference. What this story is really is a ‘David vs. Goliath’, and while David didn’t win, it is a great story nonetheless.

Butler is the smallest school to reach the Championship game since the field expanded to 64 (65) teams in 1985. And while they might have been a highly ranked team, their seeding and respect level in the Tournament fell given their deficiencies. Those weaknesses should have long ago been exposed, but it was figured that they would be fully visible against Duke the ‘Goliath’. Butler couldn’t match up with Duke’s size, athleticism, and strength. And Butler didn’t have a chance to compete with Duke’s pedigree, not only with their school and coach, but their entire roster. Duke is made up of a whole stable of 5-star recruits, with a few 4-star players thrown in their. On paper the Bulldogs didn’t have a chance, and that’s exactly what we heard for 48 hours from every talking head in college basketball.

No one thought Butler’s defensive style could slow down Duke, yet the Blue Devils managed just 61 points. And no one thought that the Bulldogs could run with Duke and keep the game close, but Butler never trailed by more than 6 points. It really was a fantastic game from start to finish, because the entire time Butler was in the game, and you believed that they could upset the Blue Devils. I was amazed with how well Butler dictated their game plan on Duke. And was highly impressed with their ability to avoid unnecessary fouls (for the most part), especially when some of their players were in foul trouble. Butler exceeded every expectation, and in fact when Gordon Hayward’s final shot left his hands I thought it was going to fall. Because Butler deserved to win that game, and very well could have if one or two plays turned out differently.

I think there was a blown call on the Hayward charge late in the game that unfortunately, should have been an and one situation. Those two points would have tied the game, and had Hayward made his free throw (he went 8 for 8 from the line), Butler would have been up by one as the clock ticked away. All-in-all though I don’t think you can blame this game on the officiating. While I think they let Duke get away with some extra contact in the 1st half, they called a much closer game in the 2nd half.  The difference in the game was Butler wasn’t able to capitalize on their opportunities.

The Bulldogs really did control the tempo of the game, but were plagued with some cold shooting. Their 34.5 % shooting was 11% off their season average. The worst part about it is a number were open shots, and a bunch more were drives to the basket that they were just too strong. I really think their inexperience and the big game played into their cold shooting day. Had Butler been able to shoot like they did during the season, they would have won last night’s game handily.

While we might have to endure a year of Duke being the National Champions, and inexplicably they will be a highly ranked team next year despite the fact pretty much everyone is leaving, Butler will finally get the credit they deserve. They will be back and if Gordon Hayward doesn’t turn pro, they will be a very dangerous team next season. And don’t be surprised if Butler makes a return trip the the Final Four and Championship game.

It was the tale of two games last night in watching the Final Four. The Butler vs. Michigan State game was indicative of the entire tournament. A mid-major team ‘upsetting’ a perennial powerhouse team. And to add to the drama the game came down to the last shot, with the ‘home team’ Butler Bulldogs surviving against Michigan State, one game away from turning their dream into a reality. Game two though was anything but reminiscent of the tournament, and can only be described as a nightmare for any West Virginia fan (or anyone who hates Duke). Not only did the Blue Devils dominate on their way to a 21 point victory, but WVU saw their star player Da’Sean Butler fall to a horrific knee injury (which of course the foul was called on WVU).

While Duke was well in control of the game, you could put a ‘W’ on the scoreboard as soon as Butler went down. He has been their most consistent player all season and if anyone could spark the comeback it would have been him. But with 9 minutes remaining in the game Butler was down on the ground and the Mountaineers were down for the count. Already without one key starter, the loss of Butler was too much for WVU to handle. And someway somehow, Duke played their best basketball of the season. They shot lights out yesterday, particularly from downtown, where they knocked down 52% of their 3-pointers.

Duke will now face the upstart Butler Bulldogs, who will not go down without a fight. Butler has been a surprise team this entire tournament and have knocked off teams with just as much talent as the Blue Devils, so the game isn’t written in stone yet. Though as tough as it is for me to admit, Duke seems unstoppable this season. If West Virginia’s length and athleticism, as well as their stellar defense wasn’t able to overcome Duke (or at least keep the game close), I’m not sure what Butler will be able to do.

One thing I do know is Butler will have the support of the nation, in Monday night’s showdown. Not only do people enjoy rooting for the underdog, but college basketball fans’ favorite past-time is rooting against Duke. The Blue Devils haven’t done themselves any favors of late to change their reputation, as Duke didn’t make any friends with their play this tournament, including last night’s game. Given the way this year’s Tournament has been going, anything is possible so Monday night could (hopefully will) be a surprise.

Last season Michigan State lost to UNC in the National Championship game, now they are one game away from facing another of the Tobacco Road teams, the Duke Blue Devils. Yesterday both the Spartans and Blue Devils won close games to go back to a place they are pretty familiar with, The Final Four. Michigan State and Duke  have been two of the most successful programs of the last two decades, so the Final Four is nothing new to either one of them (unlike their two opponents).

Both Duke and Michigan State also have very veteran laden rosters, which have carried them so far in the tournament. Neither team entered this tournament as a favorite to win it all (though Duke had a few backers considering they were a 1 seed), but now both are just one game away from playing for a National Championship. They have taken vastly different roads to get to the precipice, but are now finally here.

Michigan State in the quirkiest Tournament I’ve ever seen, will not have faced anything higher than a 4 seed until the National Championship game, if they advance. In addition to Maryland, the 4 seed, they have faced a 12th seed, 9th seed, 6th seed and now a 5th seed in the Final Four. Now that’s not to say that teams like Northern Iowa or Tennessee didn’t have talent, but just to say that they weren’t considered among the elite teams in their region. The Spartans have earned the right to be in the Final Four, but to avoid any 1, 2, or 3 seeds, does mean that Michigan State has had a little luck on their side.

As for Duke, their luck came on Selection Sunday, when the committee first of all gave them a 1 seed, and then put them in the easiest bracket. The best team in Duke’s bracket, Purdue was without their best player, and had fallen down to a four seed. Even without their star they still came close to knocking off Duke, as the game was tight until the last few minutes. And while Duke faced a more traditional path to the Final Four, including a tough game against 3 seed Baylor, they really haven’t faced a true challenge. While Baylor is a good team, they couldn’t catch any breaks (or get any calls) to go their way yesterday. And couldn’t match-up with Duke’s experience.

Now these long time powerhouses are a just one game away from facing each other, but they shouldn’t forget about who stands in their way. Both Butler and West Virginia are talented teams, that are looking for an upset. Michigan State and Duke will once again need their experience to shine through to advance.

1 Duke:  There is obviously a lot to like when it comes to Duke. They are the third best team in the country, won the ACC Conference Tournament, and suffered just 5 losses this season. Furthermore Duke has a very veteran lineup with all 5 starters upperclassmen, including the three stars Jon Scheyer, Noland Smith and Kyle Singler. Scheyer, Smith and Singler are one of the best scoring trios in the nation, each averaging over 17 points a game. The Blue Devils luck out, because they are in the easiest overall region and don’t have anything standing in their way in the top half of the bracket. An Elite Eight appearance looks like a foregone conclusion for Duke.

That being said Duke is the weakest 1 seed, and has upset potential written all over them. They struggled away from the confines of Cameron Indoor Arena this year, as all 5 losses were on the road. While normally road losses are more acceptable in all sports, its troubling when you are talking about the NCAA Tournament, because all the games are going to be on neutral sites, taking away Duke’s best advantage. It was also troubling on how they lost on the road. Three of the five losses were by 7 points or more, including a 14 point loss to a really bad North Carolina State team. It is also worth noting that Duke barely squeaked by Miami and Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament on a neutral site, and neither one of those teams were top seeds (Miami actually was the 12th seed). In addition to not playing well away from home, there are serious questions about whether or not Duke can match up athletically with some of the teams out there. They lack the quickness to defend some of the other top teams. They will win their first game no problem, but despite being heavily favored don’t be surprised if they get knocked off earlier than projected.

2 Villanova:  The Wildcats looked like they were going to be a top seed earlier in the season, but really struggled in the 2nd half of their conference schedule. While Villanova might lack some signature wins, and be considered one of the weaker 2 seeds, don’t count them out just yet.  Their biggest weakness (Big East teams) are largely not an issue in the South Region as the only other foes are Louisville, in the top bracket, and Notre Dame who will have to get past Baylor to meet them in the Sweet 16. Notre Dame or Baylor could be a major stumbling block for Villanova, but I like their overall chances in this bracket. Yes, they lack the size to match up inside against most teams, but their guard play is perhaps the best in the nation. They have 6 guards that can score anytime they touch the ball. They can shoot and run the floor with the best of them. And that is what makes Villanova so great, they are quicker and faster than just about any other team and if they get out and run the game is over.

Great guard play is key in March, which gives Villanova a great advantage to go far in this region. While their inside game is lacking, they are still my favorite team from this region to advance to the Final Four.

Rest of the Games:

3 Baylor over Sam Houston State:  Baylor is a very balanced team and could be extremely dangerous in this tournament. They have size and outside shooters. At times they can play soft, but will have no trouble in round 1.

13 Siena over 4 Purdue:  You have got to feel for the Boilermakers, they were destined to be a number 1 seed until their top player Robbie Hummel went down with injury and their season went with it. While they still have some talent, I think Siena has a great chance to upset them. Siena is a pretty veteran team with a number of good scorers.

12 Utah State over 5 Texas A&M:  Utah State will get underrated but they are a dangerous 12 seed. They play good basketball for 40 minutes every game and have a number of solid scoring options. Texas A&M had some good wins down the stretch but they aren’t a great team. They lack the couple top options you look for in a team and are too similar to Utah State.

6 Notre Dame over 11 Old Dominion:  Notre Dame has completely changed their offense and it has worked miracles for them. They slow down the game to their pace and have a good combination of inside/outside scorers. They are a very veteran team, that I think can make a small run in the tournament.

7 Richmond over 10 Mount St. Mary’s:  Richmond is a very dangerous, dangerous team in this soft region. They could make a serious run if the stars align for them, and should fairly easily win their round 1 match up. Look for the Spiders to give Villanova all they can handle in the second round.

9 Louisville over 8 Washington:  This isn’t last year’s Louisville team that was a top seed, but they could be dangerous in this Tournament. They have some experience, and are very athletic and strong. In addition they are a very good shooting team, and have shown they can beat anyone, by knocking of Syracuse twice this season. Overall they’ve been really inconsistent, and don’t have a true star player to rely on like they have had in the past. I like them over Washington, and think given their strengths they could be a bracket buster and knock off Duke to make a run, but I’m not sold on them. They have the talent, but we don’t always see it on the floor.

I know Kansas is the number one overall seed, but my question is does the selection committee know that? I ask because I feel the Jayhawks might have the toughest road to the Championship game of any 1 seed. Kansas should cruise in the first two rounds, but in the Sweet 16 they will face a likely match up against either (4) Maryland or (5) Michigan State. That is by far the toughest 4 or 5 match ups in any of the regions. Looking ahead further their Elite 8 match up will be likely against either Ohio State or Georgetown, which I think you can make a strong case being the best 2-3 seed combo in the regions as well. Probably the only advantage for Kansas is that the bottom of the bracket is probably the toughest you find, and it is quite possible that neither Ohio St. or Georgetown make it to the Elite 8. (6) Tennessee, (7) Oklahoma St., and (10) Georgia Tech all have the talent to make a serious run in the bottom of that bracket.

If Kansas has the hardest road, Duke by far has the easiest path to the Final Four. If they don’t make it to the Elite 8, Duke should just stop playing basketball because they don’t deserve to be in Division 1 if they can’t succeed in the cakewalk of a region they have. First, they got placed in the South, where they should have a good bit of support. Secondly they having nothing in front of them for the first 3 rounds. In the 2nd round they will face either (8) California or (9) Louisville. Cal doesn’t have any impressive wins this season, they lost to top teams, and beat the teams they were supposed to. While they did win the Pac-10 regular season, the Conference was extremely down this year, giving little credence to the belief they can be a threat to Duke. Louisville was able to stay somewhat competitive in the ultra-tough Big East, but with the exception of their two wins against Syracuse, they weren’t able to beat any team that was better than them. They did take a number of teams down to the wire, but weren’t able to close out games. Unfortunately for them they lack the upper-level talent to beat Duke. On paper Duke should have a tough Sweet 16 match up with (4) Purdue (seriously Texas A&M does not impress me as a 5 seed, I think they are completely overrated), but Purdue is really hurting with the loss of star Robbie Hummel. I’m guessing they don’t make it to the Sweet 16 without him, and it wouldn’t shock me if (12) Utah State is Duke’s opponent in the Sweet 16.

Luckily there is some real talent in the bottom of the region, so Duke doesn’t have a coronation into the Final Four. Either (2) Villanova or (3) Baylor should be able to overcome the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight if they make it that far. Both are better all-around teams that should give Duke plenty of problems. Even if there is an upset and one of the lower seeds come out of the bottom of that region, Duke will have a solid opponent. I think (11) Old Dominion, (7) Richmond, and (6) Notre Dame could make a serious run in the region. Overall though Duke really lucked out with their region, they should be well rested by the time they make the Elite Eight, which could be a major advantage.

All-in-all the tournament looks exciting with a number of great match-ups. My one gripe is the omission of Mississippi State. Now I realize you can’t judge a team solely by their Conference Tournament performance, but I think Mississippi State was very deserving of a bid. This team was one-tenth of a second away from earning an automatic bid, and instead has to settle for a 1 seed in the NIT. They took the best team in the nation down to the wire, on a “neutral” court (I think Kentucky fans out numbered Bulldog fans 20-1). And on the way to facing Kentucky, they knocked off Vanderbilt (a ranked team and a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament), and Florida (a bubble team that they should have taken the place of). Now I know they had some bad losses on their schedule, but the Bulldogs can play, and its hard for me to see a team like Florida or Minnesota make it over them. Minnesota seemingly made it because of their tournament run where they knocked off Michigan State and Purdue. But the difference is Purdue was without their best player, and in the Championship game Minnesota lost by almost 30 points against Ohio State. While Ohio State is the 5th or 6th best team in the country they aren’t as good as Kentucky, whom Mississippi State came so close to beating.

What are your thoughts–who was snubbed and who is overranked?