Saints -6.5 @ Bengals: Cincinnati may be at home, but they have no shot in this game as they are imploding fast. The Saints will need to keep pace in the NFC South so I expect them to play their best football. Saints win easily 35-20.

Bears -4.5 @ Lions: I’m really a bit fan of the Lions as they really seem to be turning the corner, but all my hope for them stops at Drew Stanton. If Matt Stafford or Shaun Hill were quarterbacking this team then I’d say they had a shot, but I don’t feel quite as confident with Drew Stanton. Bears win 27-20.

Jaguars +3 @ Titans: I never would have believed it if you told me, but the Jaguars are leading this division right now and I expect them to defend their first place standing. Tennessee needs to hope Kerry Collins can still get the job done, but he is far from a 100%. Tennessee will keep it close, but remember the Jags are actually getting three points in this game. Jacksonville wins 24-21.

Broncos +9 @ Chiefs: The last time these two teams met the Broncos ran up the score on the Chiefs, something I’m sure Kansas City hasn’t forgotten just yet. I’d look for the Chiefs to have an answer for the Broncos passing attack at home today, and I think Kansas City will put on an offensive show. The Chiefs might not be able to put up as many points since they are more of a run first team but I’d look for them to cover. Chiefs 35-17.

Redskins +7 @ Giants: Seven points is a big spread for the Redskins, who really haven’t been blown out of too many games this season, but I think it will be enough for the Giants to cover. New York’s receivers are banged up right now, but at the same time so is the Redskins secondary. Even with the Giants being without their top two receivers, I think they have a better passing attack than Washington. On top of that the Giants grade out with a better quarterback, rushing game, offensive line and overall defense. Now I think the Redskins can keep this game close despite their injuries, but I don’t see how they can consistently score against that Giants Defense. Giants win 28-17.

Patriots -6.5 @ Lions- I’m going with the upset pick today that I’m sure I’ll regret by halftime, but I’ll take the Lions getting the points. I know, I know, it is the mighty Patriots going up against the hapless Lions, but Detroit is better than you think. They have been in just about every game this season, and have taken some very good teams down to the wire. Even with their backup quarterback at the helm the Lions can give the Patriots a game. Now I haven’t gone so crazy to believe the Lions will win (though wouldn’t that be sweet), but I think they will keep it close enough to cover. Brady and the Pats might have trouble finding the endzone and I think they will have to settle for a couple of FG’s. Patriots win 27-21.

Saints -3.5 @ Cowboys- Dallas has looked like a brand new team with Wade Phillips out as their head coach, and that is without their quarterback Tony Romo. Backup Jon Kitna has filled in wonderfully, and the ‘Boys are once again a force to be reckoned with. Now it may be too late for their playoff hopes, but Dallas can play spoiler down the stretch. The Cowboys first chance to upset the apple cart will come today, when the Saints come into to town. New Orleans might have 7 wins, but they are far from a lock for the playoffs. They are a game back against the Falcons and essentially tied with the Buccaneers, so a loss today would really set them back. Dallas is never easy to play on Thanksgiving, so I look for this one to be a battle, and a bit of a shootout. I have cautious optimism that the Saints can pull this out and cover the spread, but Dallas should keep it close. Brees prevails in the end, 34-28.

Bengals +9.0 @ Jets- In a rematch of the first round of last years AFC Playoffs, the Jets should have no trouble replicating what they did last season. The Bengals looked to be a force in the AFC this season, building on their success from a year ago, but it is very likely they end up 4th in the North division this season. Despite adding all sorts of talent to their receivers and tight ends, Cincinnati finds a way to lose. Carson Palmer has become incredibly inconsistent, and it is costing the Bengals games. Nine points are usually a big enough spread that you’d consider taking the Bengals, but I don’t see any logical reason why anyone should play them. Sure the Jets have been a bit inconsistent this year, going down to the wire against the Browns and Lions, but I think they win this game easily. Jets 35-20.

Happy Thanksgiving and Enjoy the Games!

Yesterday I wrote a blog of simple keys to the Redskins-Lions game on how the Redskins could avoid a loss to the Lions. Well obviously they didn’t all occur considering the Skins lost 37-25, but lets take a deeper look into what happened (or didn’t happen):

Stop Ndamukong Suh: Well this didn’t even come close to happening, Suh dominated the Redskins offensive line all game, as he had 5 tackles including two sacks. He made the Redskins offensive line look like the Bears offensive line from a week ago. And while it is a solid unit that defensive line in general looked like Pro Bowlers against that Skins line. They ended up with 7 sacks, 11 tackles for a loss and 12 quarterback hits (blitzers were responsible for some of the damage). Suh is a stud, but the rest of those guys are above average players, so there is no reason they should have gotten that much pressure, and eliminated the run game so effectively.

Get The Tight End’s Involved Early and Often: The Tight Ends combined for just 5 catches yesterday and Fred Davis’ came on the last drive when Rex Grossman was in at quarterback. They were targeted a handful of more times (including Davis twice on two point conversion attempts) but to little avail. The passing game never got into a rhythm, and because of the ineffectiveness of the offensive line the Redskins were forced to keep their tight ends into block, more than they wanted. This was a major factor in the passing attack being stagnant.

Put Pressure on Matt Stafford: Not sure why this was such a problem, but the Redskins had just one sack and 4 quarterback hits against a basically rookie quarterback who was starting his 12th game of his career. The Redskins didn’t blitz with their usual intensity, and when they did it was picked up. Overall they seemed to let the Lions offense set the tone, and just reacted to them. When Stafford was under pressure he made his most errant throws, yet for some reason Washington failed to dial up the pressure.

Play Albert Haynesworth More: They played Haynesworth a good amount and he responded with a very good game, 4 tackles, including two for a loss and the team’s only sack. While his numbers were by far the most impressive of any front 7 player (and I’d argue any player on the team not named Brandon Banks), his biggest impact was felt on a number of plays where he didn’t even record a tackle. On 3rd and 1 from the 7, the Lions tried running up the middle, but Haynesworth, penetrated and was in the running lane, forcing Best to run outside, where the Redskins defense stopped him for no gain (of course the offside penalty on the FG attempt negated the stop). On a number of other plays Haynesworth got penetration and put pressure on Stafford. And when he wasn’t doing that, Haynesworth was drawing double and triple team blockers. Granted that other guard is there to take on any blitzing linebackers, but instead of going to help out a tackle to block Orakpo or Carter, his second read was to neutralize Haynesworth, now that is respect. While I thought he was effective when he was in there, for some reason they still don’t put him in on their base package, 1st and 10 situations. Sure he needs some plays off (and if you watched the Lions and Suh all DT’s need plays off), but he could still probably be used even more effectively.

Don’t Let Calvin Johnson Beat You: Well I will give them a B for effort, but an D- for execution. Johnson ended up with 9 catches for a 101 yards and 3 touchdowns. Now the Skins limited him on deep routes, but he killed them underneath. Early on Hall picked off Stafford in the end zone as he was looking for Johnson, but Johnson won the battle late. Stafford also missed an easy TD to Johnson at the end of the first half, when he floated one too short, despite Johnson getting past the secondary. In the end though Johnson won the battle, and the Lions won the game. His effort on those touchdown catches (all three of them honestly) was remarkable.

Overall: This was just a huge failure by the Redskins (and we didn’t even address some of the other coaching decisions, such as playing Rex Grossman, really Grossman???) as the only thing they came close to executing was utilizing Albert Haynesworth. Which is a joke, because that is the easiest thing to do, you just point him towards the quarterback and running back and let him play. And Washington can’t even do that completely right because they still hold him out of too many plays. How you don’t think that Suh and Calvin Johnson need to be game-planned for is beyond me. Because if they did game plan for them, it was really evident. And not getting more pressure against this offensive line is a joke (esp. with it being such an inexperienced QB). I really don’t know what the Redskins did in practice this past week, but whatever it was just stop (except for whatever they are doing in their kick return practice). It isn’t working, you just got beat by the Lions a team that has won as many games over the past 2 and a half seasons against the rest of the league as they have against the Redskins.

Normally when a 4-3 team plays a 1-5 team, you would think that even being on the road the 4-3 team would be the favorite, well it should come as no shock then that the Redskins are the underdogs, since they have been anything but normal this year.

Washington may be 4-3 right now and in the thick of the playoff race, but it hasn’t been pretty. They have barely squeaked by in all their wins, and in most cases they have been outplayed in the game. Washington has come up with key plays at crucial times to find away to win, but they have hardly looked impressive. In fact for the season, the Redskins have given up more points then they have produced (-3 point margin). Washington is also notorious for playing down to their opponent, and allowing weaker teams stay in ball games.

The Lions on the other hand are a weaker opponent as their 1-5 record suggests, but they are by no means a pushover. They have been competitive in just about every game this season, and in fact they have a positive point differential at plus 6 for the season. Only the Lions and the Chargers are teams with a .500 record or below to have a positive point differential, so that is fairly impressive. Now a big part of the reason is their 44-6 win over the Rams, but remember this is a win over a Rams team that beat the Redskins by two touchdowns. The Lions are getting their young QB Matt Stafford back in the lineup today and are coming off a bye week, so they do have some things going for them.

Here are the Keys to the Game to Ensure a Redskins Victory:

Stop Ndamukong Suh: Detroit’s top draft pick this year has already created quite a name for himself by tallying 4.5 sacks already this season. He is an incredible force in the middle of the Detroit line. If Suh isn’t accounted for, then McNabb is going to face considerable pressure up the middle, and Torain won’t be able to run. The Redskins have had some issues in interior pass blocking since Kory Lichtensteiger has joined the starting lineup, and he will be tested today. I expect they will give him help with Casey Rabach shifting over, but even the two of them might not be able to contain Suh. I also imagine the Lions will try some stunts and internal blitzes to try to get Suh blocked one-on-one, so the Redskins backs better be prepared to help out. While double teaming Suh could leave one of the Lions’s other pass rushers free, it is a risk the Skins need to take. Detroit has some other solid defensive linemen, but no one near Suh’s caliber. Washington should hedge their bet, by activating Derrick Dockery this week (even if he doesn’t start). Overall he isn’t a good fit for the Skins blocking scheme, but he has the size and bulk to try to contain Suh.

Get The Tight End’s Involved Early and Often: The Lions have really improved with their corner back play this year (though it is far from perfect), but the Redskins can exploit their linebackers in coverage. Washington has two stellar tight ends, and they need to find away to get both involved to have a more consistent offense. Right now Fred Davis is just window dressing, and it is hurting the Skins offense. This should be a coming out party for Davis against these linebackers. If Washington gets the tight ends involved early, it may make the Lions use their safeties to cover them. This will keep them from blitzing McNabb or double teaming Moss. Either way it should help make McNabb’s life quite a bit easier.

Put Pressure on Matt Stafford: Stafford might have a ton of potential, but he hasn’t put it together just yet, so Washington should be very aggressive in attacking him today. Bring the heat, and hopefully he will make the bad decisions you usually see with young QB’s (and should also lead to a couple of sacks). The Lions don’t have a strong offensive line, so Washington should have an advantage, but they should also bring their share of blitzers to show a number of different looks. The Redskins need to get creative and not just blitz linebackers and safeties, but bring corners as well. If done right they could get a couple of key plays, that could give them the victory.

Play Albert Haynesworth More: Sure no defensive tackle can play every down, but they need to include Haynesworth at end on more of their base 3-4 packages, and not just on obvious passing downs. Haynesworth has generated more penetration than any other d-lineman all season, and he has been inactive for 3 games. While he needs to be saved for all passing downs, using him against the run will help slow down the rushing attack. And if they are double or triple teaming Haynesworth (as the Bears did at times) then one or two other defenders will be free to make the play.

Don’t Let Calvin Johnson Beat You: It might be easier said then done, but Calvin Johnson needs to be contained, even if that mean’s double coverage for the entire game. Johnson is one of the best receivers in the league and nearly impossible to stop one-on-one, so the Redskins shouldn’t even try. If they slow down Johnson, it will put a lot of pressure on Stafford and the rest of the receivers and tight ends. Although the Lions have  some decent options, Stafford has worked the longest with Johnson, so he might not be on the same page with the rest of his receiving options. If neutralizing Johnson doesn’t slow down the Lions passing attack, you can always change your game plan, but you have got to at least try to take him out of the game.

Matt Moore Suffers Concussion At End Of The Game: It was not a pretty game yesterday for the the Panthers passing attack as starter Matt Moore struggled all game. At the end of the game he suffered a concussion at the hands of the Giants defense, that puts his status in question. While the severity of the concussion is not yet known, it sounds like it could be a little serious. Despite his ineffectiveness I would imagine if healthy the Panthers would still go with Moore. But this injury at least makes you think of the possibility of 2nd round draft pick, Jimmy Clausen starting next week. Personally I think while Moore’s on a much shorter leash, I think if he is healthy you have to play him. The history of playing rookie quarterbacks early is not good, and in many cases seems to almost stunt their growth.

Eagles Suffer A Rash of Injuries: Not only did the Philadelphia Eagles fail to come back yesterday, but they suffered a number of serious injuries. Quarterback Kevin Kolb and linebacker Stewart Bradley both suffered serious concussions. And Center Jamal Jackson and fullback Leonard Weaver will miss the rest of the season due to serious injuries. Jackson is a major blow to the Eagles as he is one of their best offensive linemen, and will likely miss the rest of the way with a torn biceps injury. While they can kick guard Mike McGlynn over to center it weakens them at the guard spot. I would wonder if the Eagles would consider trying to get Kevin Mawae to unretire to have some veteran depth there. Weaver is another major blow, as he is one of the best fullbacks in the league. The Eagles are now scrambling to find a suitable replacement and with both Jackson and Weaver out their interior blocking is in question. It is unclear yet how Bradley’s concussion could affect him going forward, but reports state that he appeared very out of it following the hit. Bradley was supposed to have a big year for the Eagles so even only missing a few games could go a long way to hurting the Eagles. Kolb was the most recognizable name to go down yesterday for the Eagles, but seemingly is the most easily replaceable. Michael Vick had a breakout game yesterday for Philly and almost led the Eagles back after being in a deep hole against the Packers. Vick was successful with both his feet and his arm and will have fans looking to him if Kolb continues to struggle. Kolb will probably be back next week, but beware of the brewing QB controversy in Philadelphia.

Lions Could Lose Stafford For 4-6 Weeks: Stafford who injured his shoulder after being sacked by Julius Peppers, could miss the next month and a half pending tests. Initial reports said it might just be a week or two, but later reports all put his time table at 4-6 weeks. This is a major body blow to the Lions, who despite having zero chance of competing for the playoffs, could have used this season to get their young guns on offense to develop for next year. Losing Stafford for a significant amount of time will set back that timetable and makes the Lions even less competitive. Shaun Hill will take over at quarterback, but the more immediate concern is the offensive line. Stafford got killed last year, and obviously this year they have failed to protect their “Franchise Quarterback”. As if Stafford’s injury wasn’t enough evidence the Lions, behind stud rookie running back Jahvid Best, gained just 20 yards on 21 carries. Likely the Lions will be picking in the top 5 once again in April, and you can probably write down the top offensive tackle next to their name.

Typically when the NFL Free Agency period begins (aka one of the top 5 days of the year), there is a mad dash for the top talent available, and at least one big name will have already inked their name on a new contract. This year was a bit different, in the opening hours of free agency we’ve seen only one noteable player change teams, WR Nate Burleson who is now heading to the Lions. Even still there have been some interesting developments that deserve a mention from the last 24 hours.

Lions Sign Burleson:  Burleson was one of the top unrestricted free agent wide receivers available, but that doesn’t exactly mean he is worth $25 million over 5 years. Burleson has had just one productive season in the last 5 (and one semi-productive season as well), and has dealt with some serious injuries. What’s even more interesting is Burleson was widely considered a free agent ‘bust’ in Seattle, yet somehow can still get $25 million out of the Lions. Sure Burleson is an ‘upgrade’ to the Lions receiving corps, but who isn’t? Burleson isn’t a true number 2 and now the Lions owe quite a bit of money to Dennis Northcutt, Bryant Johnson and Burleson to not take any pressure off number one wideout Calvin Johnson. The Lions probably could have spent half of that to sign someone like Chris Chambers or Antwan Randle El, either one would have offered just as much chance of being a ‘solid’ number 2 without the high price tag or the injury history.

Jets Trade for Cromartie:  Antonio Cromartie was considered one of the league’s top corners just two seasons ago. Since then there have been some issues about work ethic and teams have found some holes in his game. I would expect Cromartie to get back to elite status this season for a number of reasons. First off, AC couldn’t be in a better situation. Now he will play opposite from the best corner back in the league in Darrelle Revis, Cromartie will no longer be forced to shadow other teams’ top wide receivers. The Jets aggressive defense should also allow Cromartie to take advantage of a couple of mistakes this season, and if anyone can get Cromartie to play to his full potential it is Rex Ryan. In addition to being in a great situation, Cromartie will be a free agent after next season, giving him plenty of incentive to get back to All-Pro form. For the young and talented Cromartie, the Jets only had to give up a conditional 2011 3rd round pick. Now the pick can move up to a 2nd round pick based on benchmarks hit by Cromartie and the Jets, but if so that will mean its a late 2nd rounder. To get a player of Cromartie’s caliber for just a late future 2nd round pick is a huge steal for New York. If Mark Sanchez can begin to start playing up to his ‘franchise quarterback’ label, the Jets should be one of the AFC favorites next season.

Redskins Revamp Roster, Potentially Not Big Players In The Market:  The Washington Redskins cut ties with 10 players yesterday and resigned two as free agency began. Notable among the cuts we back-up quarterback Todd Collins, WR Antwan Randle El, OG Randy Thomas, RBs Rock Cartwright and Ladell Betts, CB Fred Smoot, and DT Cornelius Griffin. Outside of Griffin, none of those cuts could be considered much of a surprise. Thomas and Betts have been injured far to often, Smoot and Randle El were way too pricey for their production, and Cartwright and Collins were luxury items who weren’t gonna cut it in the new Redskins system under Shannahan. Griffin though has been a good player for the Skins, but given his age and the likely switch to the 3-4, he was expendable.

The Redskins did resign their top unrestricted free agent Center Casey Rabach to a three-year deal. Rabach is starting to show is age, but its not a blockbuster deal by any means. Also there wasn’t much of an upgrade in way of free agency this season, and not a particularly strong draft class for centers, leaving the Skins with few options. Washington also resigned “Mr. Do Everything” Lorenzo Alexander. Alexander, who has seen time on special teams, jumbo formations, at defensive end, and defensive tackle will now also work as a rush linebacker in the 3-4. His athleticism, work ethic and versatility make him a valuable player for the Redskins and a solid investment for 3 years.

Despite the flurry of moves yesterday the biggest news coming out of Redskins Park might be the rumor that the Redskins won’t be going after any of the top name free agents. This rumor flies in the face of not only what everyone expects in Washington, but what we have heard so far this offseason, with the Redskins attached to every big name free agent. Now I applaud some fiscal responsibility, the list of cuts and the 4-12 record show what happens when you don’t use your money wisely, but it also worries me. If it is true that would take them out of the running for the top two free agents, Julius Peppers (who I like but don’t love for the Skins) and Karlos Dansby (who I absolutely love and think is a tremendous player) and puts them in the market for 2nd tier free agents. Now you can find some excellent values in the 2nd tier of the market, but I’m worried about the first name the Skins are linked to.

Offensive tackle Chad Clifton will be visiting Redskins Park today, and likely could end up leaving wearing Burgundy and Gold. Clifton might be the top unrestricted tackle on the market, and the Redskins do have a serious need there. But there should be a number of red flags for Redskin fans (and of course the team themselves). The first being Clifton’s age, he will be 34 next season and the last couple early 30′s offensive linemen the Redskins have relied on have not turned out too well. John Jansen, Randy Thomas, and Chris Samuels all saw their career’s collapse quickly do to injury and age, going back into that well is not the solution to the Redskins offensive lineman woes. Clifton already has had some injury issues and it is hard to believe that he could be effective for any contract longer than 2 years. Also, should we really be outbidding the Packers for Chad Clifton? The Packers were one of the few teams that had an offensive line worse than the Redskins last season, and while Clifton might have been the only good player on that offensive line, doesn’t he mean more to them then he would to us? Can we really say that paying Clifton more than the Packers is fiscal responsibility? The Packers are a playoff caliber team, that has a greater need for a quality tackle to help them get back to the postseason. Also, unlike the Redskins, they pick in the mid 20′s in the draft and won’t be able to get one of the top offensive tackles to replace him. The biggest red flag for Redskins fans, is what this will mean for the rest of their offseason, particularly the draft.

The Redskins will now almost assuredly draft their ‘franchise’ quarterback with the 4th overall pick, ignoring the needs at offensive tackle or trading back for additional draft picks to fill multiple positions. Rookie quarterback (if they play at all) aren’t successful their first season with very few exceptions, and only a handful more become successes in year two. It really isn’t until the third or fourth year until you will know whether a quarterback will make it or not in this league, especially when we are talking about a rebuilding team like the Redskins. So basically the Redskins will ignore the chance to fill multiple holes with the value of their 4th overall pick, and draft a player who won’t help them succeed these next two seasons, which will be the only two years that you can feel confident in your blindside protection.

Packers and Cowboys take care of business, Giants not so much:

The Thanksgiving games were a bit of snoozers, as the Packers easily beat the Lions 34-12 in the first game. The most exciting thing for the Lions was the fact that their rookie quarterback Matt Stafford actually played yesterday. All week we heard how he wasn’t likely to play and was listed as doubtful. Then out of no where, he is throwing a touchdown to put the Lions up 7-0 in the first two minutes of the game. That was the last good thing for Stafford and Detroit, as the Packers defense really set the tone of the game. They intercepted Stafford 4 times and returned one for a touchdown at the end of the game (securing my point spread pick of Green Bay). I was not a fan of how the Lions handled the situation with Stafford this week. I mean what’s with all the injury mystery? Is Bill Belichick now on the Detroit sideline? Just be honest about the injury and be done with it. In my mind there is no reason Stafford should have been playing yesterday. This guy is supposedly the future of your franchise (jury is still out on this one), and you are having him play a meaningless game with a hurt non-throwing shoulder. The Lions have perhaps the worst offensive line in the league (though Packers, Redskins and Chiefs fans might debate that). So why are you letting your QB take that kind of pounding? What would have happened if Stafford got hit and seriously injured that shoulder and would miss next season’s training camp or preseason? I don’t know how you can let your star player go out there at anything less than 100% in a meaningless game during a short week. It was obvious that it was only a P.R. move for the fans. But come on, the game was already sold out, I think they would have understood that their ‘star’ was injured? Do the Lions think they were happy to see him throw 4 picks? This move didn’t help the team compete any better yesterday, and could have impacted team chemistry (Culpepper did not look too happy).

The Cowboys on the other hand, had no problems with their Thanksgiving Day game, as they put on an offensive show against the Raiders. Romo threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns, including 100 plus yards to both Austin and Witten. Also, the Cowboys rushed for almost 200 yards on their way to a 24-7 victory. Quite an improvement over last week’s 7-6 ‘barn burner’ against the Redskins, where they managed 305 total yards (or four less than what Romo threw for yesterday). The one thing I did enjoy seeing was a couple of busts at wide receiver scoring meaningless touchdowns yesterday. Both Roy Williams of the Cowboys, and Darrius Heyward-Bey of the Raiders scored 2nd half touchdowns that had little impact on the pace of the game. Williams and Heyward-Bey (7th overall REALLY??) have been major busts since joining their respective teams. They have also both been ‘buried’ on the depth chart (even if they are starting) by their lack of opportunities on offense. In a game where 64 balls were thrown, they were targeted a combined 9 times (catching only 4 of them), that is two less targets than Austin got from the Cowboys alone.

Speaking of high powered offenses, where did New York’s go? The Giants looked awful last night, managing just over 250 yards against a Denver team, that hadn’t been able to stop anyone these last four weeks. Yesterday was a bad day for New York all around, not only did they forget to show up in Denver, but the Cowboys and Packers looked pretty good. The Cowboys win gives them a two game advantage in the NFC East over the Giants, and will be in New York next week to potentially put the division away (and it will happen if the Giants play like last night). The Packers win and Giants loss, puts Green Bay in the 5th spot in the NFC, and leaves the Giants on the outside looking in at the 7th spot. The Broncos on the other hand positioned themselves nicely to remain in the playoff hunt sitting right now in 5th spot (though that could change after Sunday). Also by showing some signs of life the complete collapse of the Broncos that seemed inevitable is now put on hold. Denver’s defense showed that they can play with anyone when they want to.