Dez Bryant has had a turbulent year. Getting suspended by the NCAA not for receiving money, but having a friendship with a professional (still one of the worse reasons I’ve ever heard), then having his draft stock rise and fall like a yo-yo, and now he is at the point where he could very well be off the draft board for a number of teams. Bryant is still the consensus number 1 wide receiver among draft analysts (I would say it should be Demaryius Thomas), but has seen his stock take a hit.

First let me say, I believe there is a difference between character concerns and off the field concerns. When I hear off the field concerns I think getting in trouble with the law, that is not the path I see Dez Bryant going down, he will not be the Pacman Jones by any means. What I do see as a problem are serious character concerns. It is a worry when Bryant forgets his cleats for his Pro Day, even more so considering teams hadn’t seen him much this season. It is also a concern that while he put up some impressive numbers in some drills, he just quit on other ones. While Bryant ran an okay 4.54 time in the 40, considering he didn’t have cleats, that isn’t a time that really separates him from the pack.  What was really troubling for me is not so much that he forgot the cleats, but rather that he didn’t hold himself responsible. And made it seem like it wasn’t a big deal. This screams to me that Bryant has a serious entitlement issue and thinks he will enter the NFL and dominate from day one. That isn’t going to happen. Few rookie receivers over the years have had 1,000 first year campaigns. Most of those that do produce in year one, do so because they fell in the draft to better quality teams. I think Bryant is in for a rude awaking in the NFL, because he won’t have the Baylor’s and Rice’s on his schedule to beat up on.

Bryant has impressive collegiate stats for the games he played, but he never seemed to dominate against front line competition. While I wouldn’t go so far to say he was ineffective against the other top teams in the Big 12 (or that he faced out of conference). The only time he really dominated a top team was his freshmen year against Kansas, when he had 8 catches for 155 yards. But it should be noted that Kansas’s top corner Aqib Talib shadowed the Cowboys top receiver Adarius Bowman, allowing Bryant plenty of freedom. Bryant had solid numbers as a freshmen, but they weren’t what you would call elite. His sophomore year he put up big numbers, but that is my central problem, you are basing his ‘game play’ or ‘film’ on basically one season. And in that season he didn’t exactly dominate the top teams he faced. I really have trouble believing that Bryant is supposed to come in and succeed against the best defensive backs, when he wasn’t able to truly dominate college.

I like Bryant as a receiver, but thinks that he needs to mature as a player to be successful in the NFL. His game actually reminds me of two players who both ended up being 2nd round picks, Antonio Bryant and Devin Thomas. Antonio Bryant actually has a very similar skill set to Dez, as their speed is extremely deceptive. Devin Thomas reminds me of him, because of the size comparison. Both A. Bryant and Thomas fell to the 2nd round due in part to character concerns (which have both come to fruition somewhat). While Thomas seems to be finally learning that he isn’t just naturally better then the defensive backs in the NFL, he still has yet to prove his worth as a 2nd round pick. A. Bryant has had a very up and down career and even had to sit out a season, because no one wanted him. Since returning to the NFL it looks as though he is moving in the right direction and has become a very good number 2 receiver.

To me, this is what we will see out of Dez Bryant (and it is up to him as to how long it takes him to reach that level). I think he can be an excellent number 2 receiver in this league, a guy who can routinely go for 70 catches and 1,200 yards a season. He will need to work opposite another quality wideout, but can be a very good pass catcher in the NFL. It’s my belief that since his ceiling isn’t as a top 10 or even 15 receiver, he shouldn’t be drafted in the top 10 or 15 picks (even top 20 is a stretch for me). And since I do wonder how long, if ever he will reach that ceiling I do knock him down my draft board considerably. I’m fairly confident he doesn’t get past Denver at the 11th pick, but I don’t think they will see the return on investment they are expecting.

In a bit of a surprising move the Miami Dolphins won the Brandon Marshall sweepstakes, by trading two 2nd round picks for they young and talented (troubled) receiver. There is little doubt that this trade makes the Dolphins better and is a direct answer to the Jets trade for Santonio Holmes earlier this week. What is surprising is the price the Dolphins paid, and the fact that they were even in on this deal from the get go.

Miami under Bill Parcells has been much shrewder with their draft picks and assets then they have in the past. So it is a bit surprising that they were willing to move two premium picks for Brandon Marshall. They paid a much higher price then the Baltimore Ravens paid for Anquan Boldin or the Jets paid for Braylon Edwards (last year) or Santonio Holmes. Now Marshall could very well be the best receiver of that bunch (but don’t count out Holmes) but it was still a steep price to pay considering the Ravens and Jets were no longer vying for Marshall’s services. It looked as though Miami’s chief competition for Marshall’s services was the Seattle Seahawks, and their 2nd round pick wasn’t until pick number 60. Meaning they would have had to add plenty to match the Dolphins 2nd rounder this year (pick 43). So it does seem like the Dolphins overpaid for Marshall.

Marshall does give Miami the number one receiver that they have been searching for and plenty of size for the red zone. Quarterback Chad Henne has to be the happiest man in south Florida right now, since he has someone reliable to throw the ball to. By adding a top flight wide receiver the Dolphins will know for sure whether Henne is their quarterback of the future. Marshall should also make the Dolphins other receivers better since he will draw more double coverages and team’s best corner backs. While their previous receiving corps was always much maligned in the press, I believe that there was some solid talent there already. Now guys like Hartline and Bess should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. But make no mistake the Dolphins passing attack will start with Marshall and his presence should boost that entire offense. The Dolphins are no longer solely a running team as opposing defenses will now need to respect their passing attack as well.

Denver did a great job forcing the Dolphins to raise the stakes for Marshall a player they didn’t want, and one that didn’t want to be there. Getting two 2nd round picks for him in these two drafts is a steal. This year’s draft is incredibly deep and having the 43rd pick is basically like having a late first rounder in most drafts. And right now next year’s draft looks just as deep if not deeper, which should give the Broncos the chance to grab another top prospect. The important thing for the Broncos is to make sure they draft smart and don’t make a rash decision like, drafting Dez Bryant with the 11th overall pick. I know people will say that Bryant fills their ‘need’, but I think that is grossly overvaluing him. What makes it even more problematic is that 2011 is shaping up to be for receivers what 1983 or 2004 drafts were for quarterbacks. It doesn’t make much sense to grab a lesser receiver now, when you can wait a year and take an elite front line wideout. Denver got into trouble last year by pigeonholing positions of need to particular draft spots and ended up with one of the worst drafts last season, despite having two first round picks and three second round picks. They can’t allow themselves to make the same mistakes again, and need to add quality players if they hope to compete for the AFC West.

Packers and Cowboys take care of business, Giants not so much:

The Thanksgiving games were a bit of snoozers, as the Packers easily beat the Lions 34-12 in the first game. The most exciting thing for the Lions was the fact that their rookie quarterback Matt Stafford actually played yesterday. All week we heard how he wasn’t likely to play and was listed as doubtful. Then out of no where, he is throwing a touchdown to put the Lions up 7-0 in the first two minutes of the game. That was the last good thing for Stafford and Detroit, as the Packers defense really set the tone of the game. They intercepted Stafford 4 times and returned one for a touchdown at the end of the game (securing my point spread pick of Green Bay). I was not a fan of how the Lions handled the situation with Stafford this week. I mean what’s with all the injury mystery? Is Bill Belichick now on the Detroit sideline? Just be honest about the injury and be done with it. In my mind there is no reason Stafford should have been playing yesterday. This guy is supposedly the future of your franchise (jury is still out on this one), and you are having him play a meaningless game with a hurt non-throwing shoulder. The Lions have perhaps the worst offensive line in the league (though Packers, Redskins and Chiefs fans might debate that). So why are you letting your QB take that kind of pounding? What would have happened if Stafford got hit and seriously injured that shoulder and would miss next season’s training camp or preseason? I don’t know how you can let your star player go out there at anything less than 100% in a meaningless game during a short week. It was obvious that it was only a P.R. move for the fans. But come on, the game was already sold out, I think they would have understood that their ‘star’ was injured? Do the Lions think they were happy to see him throw 4 picks? This move didn’t help the team compete any better yesterday, and could have impacted team chemistry (Culpepper did not look too happy).

The Cowboys on the other hand, had no problems with their Thanksgiving Day game, as they put on an offensive show against the Raiders. Romo threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns, including 100 plus yards to both Austin and Witten. Also, the Cowboys rushed for almost 200 yards on their way to a 24-7 victory. Quite an improvement over last week’s 7-6 ‘barn burner’ against the Redskins, where they managed 305 total yards (or four less than what Romo threw for yesterday). The one thing I did enjoy seeing was a couple of busts at wide receiver scoring meaningless touchdowns yesterday. Both Roy Williams of the Cowboys, and Darrius Heyward-Bey of the Raiders scored 2nd half touchdowns that had little impact on the pace of the game. Williams and Heyward-Bey (7th overall REALLY??) have been major busts since joining their respective teams. They have also both been ‘buried’ on the depth chart (even if they are starting) by their lack of opportunities on offense. In a game where 64 balls were thrown, they were targeted a combined 9 times (catching only 4 of them), that is two less targets than Austin got from the Cowboys alone.

Speaking of high powered offenses, where did New York’s go? The Giants looked awful last night, managing just over 250 yards against a Denver team, that hadn’t been able to stop anyone these last four weeks. Yesterday was a bad day for New York all around, not only did they forget to show up in Denver, but the Cowboys and Packers looked pretty good. The Cowboys win gives them a two game advantage in the NFC East over the Giants, and will be in New York next week to potentially put the division away (and it will happen if the Giants play like last night). The Packers win and Giants loss, puts Green Bay in the 5th spot in the NFC, and leaves the Giants on the outside looking in at the 7th spot. The Broncos on the other hand positioned themselves nicely to remain in the playoff hunt sitting right now in 5th spot (though that could change after Sunday). Also by showing some signs of life the complete collapse of the Broncos that seemed inevitable is now put on hold. Denver’s defense showed that they can play with anyone when they want to.

Packers at Lions (+11):

The Packers should win this game easily, but the true question will be whether or not they can win by at least 12 points to cover the spread. I know the Lions put up some points last weekend against the Browns, but there are a couple of things to remember; one, that was against the Browns, maybe the most anemic team in the NFL right now, two, Matt Stafford won’t be starting today, leaving the game in the trusted hands of Daunte Culpepper. Another reason why I don’t think the Lions can cover is, if they had so much trouble stopping Brady Quinn and the Browns, what will Aaron Rodgers do to them?  My pick:  I’ll take the Packers to cover the spread.

Raiders at Cowboys (-14):

Dallas should be able to win this game fairly easily. They are always dominate at home and usually play their best game on Thanksgiving. They will look to give their 100,000 faithful something to cheer about today, after nearly blowing the game last week against Washington. I’d expect them to try to get some quick scores, and then rely on their three pronged rushing attack to hold the lead. I know the Raiders were impressive against the Bengals, and Gradkowski breathed new life into the offense, but I don’t see them winning two weeks in a row. The week after surprising the Eagles, the Raiders got beat 38-0 by the Chargers. My pick:  I’ll take the Cowboys at home on Thanksgiving day, and they’ll win by three touchdowns.

Giants at Broncos (+6.5):

The Broncos are in the midst of a four game losing streak and seem to be in complete disarray right now. Their defense can’t stop anyone, and has been completely exposed against the run. The Chargers and Redskins ran all over the Broncos these last two weeks, and those aren’t exactly the best ground units (or offensive lines) in the NFL. This week the Broncos are going against one of the best rushing attacks, so things might get ugly fast in Denver. Bradshaw probably won’t play today, but Brandon Jacobs should be all the Giants need. And if New York does go through the air, I don’t think Denver can get enough pressure on Manning to keep him from torching them. My pick:  I know the Giants squeaked by in overtime last week, and lost their four previous games, but I think they right the ship today against the Broncos, and win by at least 10 points.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope you enjoy the games!

Two 3-0 Teams Go Down today: Now everyone knows at least one 3-0 team will lose, with the Saints and Jets facing off. While it seems like the Cinderella magic of Mark Sanchez and the Jets is going to expire at midnight (4:05 pm), don’t be surprised if the Jets defense and running attack put them on top when the dust settles. I also think the Cowboys will knock off the Broncos in Denver. The Broncos might be 3-0, but they haven’t really played anyone tough yet, I still think they are no better than an 8-8 team. So if the only two 3-0 teams are the Saints/Jets and the Broncos, that means the Ravens won in Foxboro. The Patriots weren’t able to handle the “Ravens” defense two weeks ago against the Jets, so color me skeptical that they can handle the original form of the defense, which comes with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.

One 0-3 Team Puts One In The Win Column: And the winner is….Tennessee Titans. As much as I’m tempted to pick against my Washington Redskins given their lackluster performances against the Rams and Lions, I can’t bring myself to think that Josh Johnson can lead the troops in DC for the first Buccaneer victory. The Chiefs are completely outclassed by the New York Giants, even with the injury list they have. Kansas City will be lucky if they hold the G-men to with in 10 points. Even without facing Frank Gore, I think the 49ers will be too much for the Rams to handle. That 49er defense has been pretty impressive so far, and can’t really be blamed for losing to Brett Favre in the last seconds of the game. That’s analogous to blaming your clean up hitter for not getting the walk-off home run against Mariano Rivera. I also have zero faith in Chad Henne, to get the Dolphins out of the loss column today. I’ve thought Henne was overrated when they drafted him, and I still think he is today. As much as I like that defense and running game, I think the Bills steal a win in Miami because of the ineffectiveness of Henne. In the battle of Ohio, I think the Bengals can pretty easily handle the Browns, and newly named starting quarterback Derek Anderson. So far this year the Browns haven’t been able to run the ball, haven’t been able to pass the ball, and have a defense that can stop anybody, and for good measure they are turning to a quarterback who has as many interceptions in 2 quarters as their starter had in 10. The Titans are an easy pick here…there defense has been bad, but their offense has been able to move the ball pretty effectively. They need to punch the ball in a bit more, which should be fairly easy today against the Jags.