The Deal: The Los Angeles Angels acquire SP Dan Haren for SP Joe Saunders, SP Pat Corbin (A+), RP Rafael Rodriguez (AAA), and a PTBNL (likely SP Tyler Skaggs (A-):

Angels: Not only did Los Angeles win this trade, but they did so in a landslide. Dan Haren might be having a bit of a down year but this is a guy whose numbers put him as one of the top 25 pitchers in the league the past 5 years. And during his past two years with the Diamondbacks he was a top 10 pitcher. Now most people might not put him in that elite of a category as he doesn’t have the dominate pitches you usually associate with an ‘ace’, but at worse he is an excellent number 2 starter. What makes him even more valuable is his age and contract. Haren will turn 30 later this year is only due about $4 million the rest of this season, and is under contract for $12.75 a year in both 2011 and 2012. Haren has a very affordable 2013 option at $15.5 which should get picked up, barring some major injury. The Angels acquired a very affordable frontline pitcher for the next 3 and a half years and really didn’t give up anything to do so. They traded more last season for Scott Kazmir who hadn’t been nearly as consistent as Haren. Now the Angels will make a solid run at a playoff berth this year, but are completely set up in their pitching rotation for 2011. All-around this is a great move by the Angels, one that will help them on the field and off, particularly as they look to attract free agents this offseason.

Diamondbacks: I keep looking at this trade and for some reason expect it to get better, but alas it does not. And unless it ends up being 3 PTBNL and they are all top prospects, this is just a bad deal. I have no problem with the Diamondbacks targeting pitching since that is the weakness in their system, though it did severely limit your return from the Angels as their top guys are all hitters. What I do have a problem with is the fact that they have nothing to show for trading their ace. Talk about selling low on a guy, of the 3 prospects the D-backs acquired just one ranked in the top 10 of Keith Law, Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, and that is Skaggs the player to be named later. Skaggs is a good prospect and has pitched well this year in low-A, but there was a couple reasons he ranked on the low end of those top 10 lists. One, he is straight out of High School and while he has pitched well this year, he is probably at least 3 years away. Secondly, while he is projectable, he is far from a sure thing and really only projects as number 3 type of pitcher. Unfortunately for Arizona fans Skaggs is the peak of this deal.

Pat Corbin is a solid prospect and another young left-hander in the midst of a good year in the lower minors. He too is probably about three years away, but he is less of a sure thing, especially when it comes to being in the starting rotation. Rafael Rodriguez is the lone righty and reliever in this deal, but he doesn’t bring much to the table. He should easily make it in the Diamondbacks horrendous bullpen, but will probably never be more than a solid middle reliever at best. From a name standpoint Joe Saunders is the headliner of this deal, but in reality he might be the weakest link. Saunders is a back of the rotation lefty starter, who gives up way too many hits and home runs. His perception and contract are inflated, given the fact that he won 33 games between 2008-2009. While he was pretty good in 2008 he pitched above his head in 2009, and his win totaled was boosted by being on a very good team (and some luck). This year his numbers have gotten worse and his win total has collapsed. What makes things worse for the D-backs is that given his previous win totals Saunders will make probably close to $6 million next season in Arbitration (and even more the year after that). That will significantly eat into the money that the Diamonbacks saved by trading Haren. And what’s worse is that Saunders isn’t worth that much on the open market, but because of P.R. issues they can’t even think of non-tendering him.

This deal was just awful for Arizona as they shouldn’t have taken back any money, much less on a guy like Saunders. Then on top of that the rest of their return wasn’t impressive at all. If I was Arizona I would have insisted on Trevor Reckling be involved in the deal in place of Saunders and a lower pitcher like Trevor Bell or bullpen prospect Jordan Walden to replace Rodriguez. Even then it wouldn’t have been a great deal since there are no sure things, but it would have been a much better return for 3 and a half years of one of the better pitchers in baseball.

Winner: It is not even close the Angels won this deal the moment Trout’s name wasn’t included or it wasn’t for 8 guys. It’s doubtful Los Angeles will ever miss any of these guys, and they set themselves up big time over these next couple of years.

Dan Haren went from practically untouchable, to likely to be traded in about a week. Now, I think a deal will get done by the time Monday rolls around. While initial reports had the Yankees as the front runners, those have since turned out to be a bit premature. The Twins, Tigers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies are all highly interested in the right-hander, despite the fact that he has been struggling of late. The Yankees will probably remain front runners though since they have the easiest path to trade for Haren.

The Twins and Tigers are both on his no-trade list (as are the Rays if they get interested). Now that is not to say Haren won’t be dealt to those teams, just that the D-Backs will need to get his approval to complete a deal. Which is unfortunate for Arizona, since both teams can probably put together better deals than the Yankees. The Dodgers are problematic since they are in the division and would want the Diamondbacks to eat a chunk of change. While that would increase Arizona’s prospect package, it would be hard to swallow to face the Dodgers and you are paying the salary of the pitcher that is beating you. The Cardinals also would have a hard time fitting Haren in their budget, and they lack the farm system to deal for a pitcher like Haren. That leaves the Yankees as the team without any strings attached as they try to acquire Haren.

Haren won’t come cheap, as initial reports had the D-backs asking the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain, pitching prospect Ivan Nova and two other prospects. While the other two players were unknown, my guess is the Diamondbacks asked for two good prospects (possibly Zach McAllister and David Adams, the players rumored in the Cliff Lee deal). While the Yankees turned it down and in turn asked for a deal involving all prospects, my guess is Joba will need to be involved for a deal to take place. Chamberlain’s value has fallen well below the untouchable range, and New York should consider any deal that doesn’t include them giving up Jesus Montero. While I understand the Yankees are hesitant to give up on Chamberlain when is value is at it’s lowest, he is also no longer a rookie. His free agency clock is ticking and if you can get a player like Haren for him, who is signed for multiple years it isn’t a bad deal. Haren would also mean the Yankees would be out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes this offseason (one would think), which would save the Yankees quite a bit of money over the next couple of years.

I still wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers or even the Twins get heavily involved even if Haren would have to approve the deal. Given the state of both franchise’s as team’s built to contend over the next few years, I don’t see why Haren wouldn’t agree to a deal to those cities. Another dark horse team that could get involved is the Rangers, they already traded for Cliff Lee, but he is an impending free agent, and the Rangers could use an ace going forward. While their farm system is a little weaker they have the young frontline pitching the Diamondbacks desire. It might not be as much major league ready pitching, but they have the most high upside arms in the minors. Fitting his contract in their budget might be an issue, but he makes a ton of sense from a talent standpoint (as well as selling tickets). A Lee-Haren front of the rotation could carry Texas deep into the postseason, and deliver the Rangers their first World Series title.

1. Roy Oswalt: It remains to be seen if the Astros will part with one of their favorite players, but it is probably in the best interest to the team. Houston is in a rebuilding phase, and they have one of the weakest farm systems in the league (particularly in the high minors). Oswalt is also owed $16 million next year and has a $2 million team buyout for 2012 (or $16 team option). Add in the $7 million owed to him this year still, and the Astros have plenty of reasons to look to move their ace. It is a hefty contract, which will take some teams out of the running, but Houston has said they are willing to take on salary to get a better prospect return. As for his value I would peg it in the range as to what the Phillies gave up for Cliff Lee last year, and maybe slightly less. Oswalt has a no trade clause in his contract so it could get a bit dicey, but he is still the best pitcher on the market.

2. Dan Haren: It wasn’t long ago that Haren was supposed to be the major piece acquired by the Diamondbacks to take them to the next level, now it looks like Haren may be on the move again. He still has two years ($12.75 per) left on his deal after this year, and an option year in 2013. Haren at 29 years of age is very affordable at this price and is by no means a salary dump. He is struggling a bit this season, but not horribly so. The real question remains is if the Diamondbacks will put him on the market, and what their asking price will be. Given their struggles, I’m sure they will listen on him. But since they just gave up some very talented prospects, it will probably take quite a bit to acquire Haren.

3. Ted Lilly: Lilly will actually attract more teams, given his cost (free agent after this season, and a Type-A at that) and the fact that he is left handed, but he isn’t nearly the upgrade Oswalt or Haren are. Lilly is still getting it done, and the Cubs look to be sellers this month. His price tag won’t be exorbitant (which also should interest some teams) but he should net the Cubs two solid players.

4. Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins look to move into sell mode over the next month and Nolasco will likely be one of the top players dealt. He is having another good year, and could slot into most rotations as a quality 3. He still has two arbitration years remaining after the season making him very cheap and valuable compared to a number of the other pitchers. The Marlins will want a pretty good return, but will likely move him to get the maximum value.

5. Paul Maholm: The list drops off a bit after Nolasco, but Maholm can still help a contender down the stretch. He is a middle of the rotation lefty, who gives solid innings. He won’t ever be a frontline starter, but can be a solid 4 on a contender. He still has $6.5 (2011 season and a buyout in 2012) remaining after this year, which is pretty affordable. He won’t cost a ton in a return package, which helps increase his value. The Pirates are definitely entering a sell mode and Maholm will be one of their top chips.