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NFL Mock Draft 02/01/11

February 1, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time.

Feb. 1st update: Still Think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

2. Denver Broncos: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Broncos could go in multiple defensive directions here, but I’m going to say they nab Amukamara here. The Broncos could opt for a defensive end (or a rush linebacker if they stay in the 3-4), but taking a corner here makes sense. Champ Bailey is an impending free agent, and if they can’t agree to terms with them their corner situation is dismal. Even if they do bring Bailey back, his time at the top of his game is near the end, so adding a young elite corner makes sense. Also, when you play Phillip Rivers twice a year, strengthening your defensive backs is a always a good idea.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

3. Buffalo Bills: DE/OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

The Bills could look to grab the top receiver or corner back on the board, but I’m thinking they will go with the best pass rusher to improve their front 7. It doesn’t make much sense to run the 3-4 if you don’t have a rush linebacker who can get to the quarterback. Aaron Maybin has been a huge bust so far, so it is time for the Bills to address their biggest need. Miller really separated himself at the Senior Bowl and I now believe he is a top 5 pick. His instincts are unreal and he has the ability to be a superstar.

pick change: previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

4. Cincinnati Bengals: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Bengals will be quite happy to find Green on their doorstep and won’t let him fall any further in the draft. Cincinnati will move on from Terrell Owens this offseason, and it is very likely they look to deal Chad Ochocinco as well. They will need a new big play receiver if they hope to stay competitive, as Carson Palmer (if he is there) can’t run the offense alone.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

5. Arizona Cardinals: DE/OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. There are some concerns with him since he was suspended for a rules violation this year, but he is a big time talent, and if he is in top shape this offseason he should be a top 5 guy.

pick change: Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

6. Cleveland Browns: DE De’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

Previously I had the Browns reaching for a wide receiver with this pick and taking Julio Jones, but recent events make me believe they will go in a different direction. With the hiring of Dick Jauron, it is now pretty official that the Browns are heading to a 4-3 alignment, and right now they don’t have the personnel to handle the move. In particular they need to find help at defensive end, making De’Quan Bowers a fantastic selection for them. Bowers is the top rated player on my board, but he doesn’t fit nearly as well into 3-4 teams, and teams like the Panthers and Bengals don’t have a pressing need for a DE, allowing him to fall. The Browns would be wise to end that fall, as he has the potential to be the next Mario Williams or Julius Peppers. Although the Browns still need to add a big play receiver, I think they will look more towards the 2nd round and/or free agency.

pick change: previous selection WR Julio Jones

7. San Francisco 49ers: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

While the 49ers could be tempted by a quarterback, I think Peterson makes too much sense for them to pass up. Their secondary got pretty torched last season, and adding a play-maker like Peterson should help fix that problem immediately.  The 49ers could win the NFC West next year with just a few changes so adding guys who can help right away, compared to a developmental QB makes sense. With Peterson in the fold that defense should finally be as good as advertised. Quarterback is still and issue, and one that will likely be addressed in free agency (or via a trade) and a mid-round selection.

pick change: previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

8. Tennessee Titans: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

The Titans at this point could go in any direction, but it will be hard to gauge until they have a new coach in place. Despite the coaching change it looks as though Vince Young is on his way out. While that would have happened with Jeff Fisher at the helm, he was more likely to look for a more veteran fix (McNabb, Kolb, etc.), then go the rookie route. With a new staff in place it might be time to rebuild in Tennessee, making Gabbert a smart pick. While I don’t know if I’d label him a ‘franchise quarterback’, he does have the best combination of potential, talent, and likelihood of reaching it. Gabbert probably should start until at least mid-season, but he gives hope as a quarterback who can take pressure off Chris Johnson.

pick change: previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

9. Dallas Cowboys: DT/DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

Previously I had the Cowboys selecting and offensive tackle here and I still believe that is on the short list, but now I believe they will target defensive line first (unless one of the top corner falls). Dareus will help fill in the void along the Cowboys line and help strengthen that unit to an elite level. The Cowboys do have bigger needs along the offensive line and in their secondary (both at CB and FS) so a trade back is likely, but if they stay there Dareus would be a great addition.

pick change: previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

10. Washington Redskins: DE/DT Cameron Jordan, California-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. The Redskins are likely to part ways with Albert Haynesworth this offseason, meaning their weakness along the defensive line goes from ‘major’ to ‘critical’. Jordan would help stop the bleeding from losing Haynesworth, and provide the Redskins with a true star along the line. In the 3-4 he profiles best as an end, and should automatically upgrade both the Skins rush defense and pass rush. Jordan was by far the most impressive player at the Senior Bowl last week, and impressed scouts each day with his talent. He would be a huge get for the Redskins at the 10th spot.

pick change: previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

11. Houston Texans: OLB/DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take should focus this pick on grabbing a rush linebacker. Smith was a sack artist in college and should have no problem fitting into the Texans new defense as a rush linebacker.

pick change: previous selection OLB Von Miller

12. Minnesota Vikings: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

I don’t believe Newton is a top 2o or even a top 15 pick, but I have a sneaky suspicion he will here his name called during that time, the the Vikings are the favorites to land him in my book. Minnesota will likely look to upgrade the position this offseason via trade or free agency, but don’t be surprised if they double-dip and take Newton as well. Minnesota needs a long term project at quarterback (Joe Webb doesn’t count), and Newton I think would really intrigue them.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tryon Smith, USC-

I’m keeping with the theory that the Lions will use this pick on a LT. While a lot will depend on his combine and workouts, I’m a big believer in Smith and liked what I saw on film. If he shows he has the strength, he has the ability to be a top tackle in this league. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. Detroit might have needs at LB and CB, but they are secondary compared to their need at offensive tackle.

pick change: previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

Most draftniks will say this is too high for Baldwin, but I think they are underselling him a bit. Baldwin has all the skills to be a number one wide receiver in this league and his addition should make Sam Bradford very happy. The Rams could look at some defensive options, but I think they stay the course and add the top WR on the board. While right now you can make a case of Julio Jones over Baldwin, I don’t think it is nearly as strong as most scouts make it out to be. I believe that Baldwin will separate himself during his workouts, and end up being the 2nd receiver in this class.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

15. Miami Dolphins: DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-

While it is easy to mock the Dolphins a quarterback or running back considering their needs, Miami should be looking at a rush linebacker to compliment Cameron Wake. Kerrigan had a very successful career at getting to the quarterback with his hand down in college, and if he shows enough at workouts to make the transition outside he should be the Dolphins pick. If not Miami could go for another pass rusher, or turn their attention back to their offensive needs.

Kerrigan had a pretty good Senior Bowl week, and while it didn’t answer many of the questions about being able to stand up, he showed up at a good weight and looked pretty quick in drills. The question about converting into a LB isn’t fully answered, but it was a good first step for him.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Thursday’s Morning Links

January 13, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Browns May Be Closing In On A Head Coach: Cleveland seems like they have found their new head coach, and it appears to be Pat Shurmur, the offensive coordinator of the Rams. Shurmur coached under Andy Reid in Philly before becoming the Rams offensive coordinator, making him apart of the Holmgren coaching tree. Shurmur’s uncle Fritz served under Holmgren both at Green Bay and Seattle, so this marriage makes perfect sense. Shurmur in his own right has helped mold Sam Bradford into an impressive rookie quarterback, and kept the Rams offense competitive despite not having the best personnel. With the Browns he will have the chance to mold another young quarterback, as well as implement an offense with a young promising team. Shurmur might not be biggest name on the market, but he fits what with the Browns are doing and will work well with Mike Holmgren. I’m sure some coaches may have balked at having to keep their defensive unit, led by Rob Ryan, but it appears Shurmur is okay with that arrangement.

Dolphins Could Be Close to Landing A New Offensive Coordinator: When the Dolphins decided to keep Tony Sparano it was evident they would need to bring in a big name offensive coordinator to rejuvenate this team. Miami’s offenses have been stagnate of late and there has been little in the way of developed talent. It is beginning to look like the Dolphins found the man for the job and he is a familiar face to football fans, former Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress. Childress left Minnesota amid controversy, and probably shouldn’t be a head coach, but he is a very attractive candidate as a coordinator. Childress was considered instrumental in the development of Donovan McNabb and the Eagles offenses. And early on he looked to have the same success in Minnesota (of course he lost control of the situation). The Dolphins needed a new offensive mind, someone who could maybe salvage something from Chad Henne’s career. While Miami is interviewing other candidates, Childress would be by far the biggest name, and with the most experience, which is exactly the way I think they should go.

Discussion Question? What was the craziest game yesterday?

November 15, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

There are a number of contenders for oddest game yesterday, but which was the most surprising:

Steelers, Giants and Chiefs getting blown out:

The Jets needing overtime (again) to knock off an opponent on the road:

The Bengals negative 5 in the turnover battle yet still with a chance to win the game at the end:

The Bills getting their first win by forcing an incomplete two point conversion on the final play of regulation:

The Jaguars winning on a last second Hail Mary after a Texan defender batted the ball into a Jaguar’s receivers hands:

No one team separating themselves in the NFC West:

There were no doubt a number of crazy storylines from yesterday, which helps make the NFL one of the most unpredictable sports (and popular to boot). I think my two favorite ones were the Browns taking the Jets into overtime, and the final play of the Jaguars-Texans game. What was your favorite game or games from yesterday?

Slicks Picks: Sunday Edition

November 14, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Matt (aka Slick)

I was forced into posting yesterday.  this is probably why I didn’t even recognize that arizona was playing stanford and not arizona st.  that could have changed everything.  Good news is, im sure it was far too late to consider action anyway.  2-6 is a killer, but i did hit my only total of the day.  Clemson v Fla St.  Naturally, it went under.

So lets gear up for a much bigger day today.  the NFL.  i usually dont play NFL games because i truly think many of the games are fixed, or at least pre-determined.  In the NFL, it is all about the money, even in the playoffs.  however, that doesnt mean we cant take advantage of a few that should go our way, as long as we can figure out what the outcome is before the game before it starts too. Let me explain…

These guys are professionals.  Tom Brady does not fret at the likes of the Cleveland Browns, but somehow, he looked like Ryan Leaf in headlights back there last week.  Does anyone really think that Cleveland is better than New Eng?  NO CHANCE.  In fact, if they played 10 more times, NWE wins 9 of them, but on this day, Vegas needed a win, and so the line stayed very low, everyone loaded up on NWE, and the Browns won easily.  there are a couple games every week that meet this criteria, and if you can find them, you will be very happy on payday.

this week is tough.  I see one that sticks out.  Jacksonville -1.5 V Houston.  Houston is better.  Houston would win most of the time.  but on this day, everyone is going to take Houston, and the JAGS are going to win.  I see something similar again in Cleveland too.  now that the Browns have won a few, the league has taken notice, and so have the oddsmakers.  NYJ a small favorite in Cleveland today.  The average joe knows that the JETS are far superior to the hapless offense that the BROWNS field each week, but again, on this day, the BROWNS will keep it close.  the JETS are super bowl contenders, and no one thinks the BROWNS will be playing extras this year.  So, if you have to bet a few teams, Take JAX, Take CLEV.

Oh, and did i mention i love totals?   Wheres the beef?  See below.

UNDER 48.5 in JAX v HOU

OVER 40.5 in MIN v CHI

OVER 44.5 in KC v DEN

OVER 37 in CAR v TB (what?)

see you next week…

Slick

Picks for the Sunday:

November 14, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Bengals +7.5 @ Colts: I love Indy with this pick. I know the Bengals battled back against the Steelers and made it close, but I’m not buying it two weeks in a row. Cincinnati isn’t a good team this year and I don’t see them going into Indianapolis and matching Peyton TD for TD. I think the Colts win easily by double digits 31-20.

Vikings -1 @ Bears: Chicago is at home, and the Vikings still are a splintered team but I’ll take Minnesota in this game with a pretty high confidence. The Bears simply can’t protect Jay Cutler, and the Vikings still get after the quarterback with the best of them. On offense Favre is coming off his best game, and he has been known to carry teams on his back in the past. I look for it to be close but Minnesota to win and cover 21-17.

Lions -1 @ Bills: A lot of people seem to be pegging this as Buffalo’s first win, and I get the argument. The Bills are at home, have shown improvement and Lions quarterback Matt Stafford is out. Now if Drew Stanton was playing I’d say they have a case, but I believe Shaun Hill will lead the Lions to their 3rd win. That Buffalo offensive line is one of the worst in the league and we all saw what the Lions did to the Washington Redskins unit. I think the Lions will slow down Fitzpatrick and force a couple of costly turnovers. The Lions win this 27-24.

Jets-3 @ Browns: Boy this is a tough one, on paper it shouldn’t be a contest and the Jets should win by 13 not 3, but they have been struggling recently. And while the Jets have been struggling the Browns led by rookie quarterback Colt McCoy are looking good. Back-to-back wins against the Saints and New England, have people beginning to take notice of the Browns. Normally I’d say this is where Cleveland’s glass slipper falls off, but I’m not ready to count them out just yet. Jets win but don’t cover as they squeak out a 24-23 victory.

Titans +1 @ Dolphins: It’s unclear if or how much Vince Young will play so I understand why the Dolphins are favored at home, but remember they too are going with a different guy behind center. Chad Pennington is replacing ineffective starter Chad Henne, so it will be interesting to see how Chad Part II does. Even if Young doesn’t play I like Tennessee in this game, they have been struggling of late, but they have a top notch defense, Chris Johnson and oh yeah just acquired Randy Moss. He might not have a huge impact, but i’d expect Moss to open up some things for CJ. Titans win 28-20.

Panthers +7 @ Buccaneers: Although I still think Tampa is a bit overrated I don’t think they will have much trouble in today’s game. Carolina isn’t a good team to begin with, and injuries are really beginning to take their toll. I really think Tampa runs away with this game early and I see a 31-13 final.

Texans +1 @ Jaguars: I understand the Jags are at home and have been playing better football, but I just don’t see it. The Texans have struggled some, and their defense can’t really stop anyone, but Schaub/ Foster/Johnson are nearly unstoppable. I think the Texans secondary will keep Jacksonville in it but I see a pretty high scoring game, 35-27 in favor of the Texans.

Another Redskins Trade Idea

October 19, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

These are words I never thought I’d be saying at this point in the season, but the Redskins should look to make a trade to acquire a player at the trade deadline. Anyone who knows me, knows that I’m adamently against trading picks for 1 year fixes (like the Redskins always seem to do), so I have been dead set against them giving up draft picks for players (esp. since they have already traded away their 3rd and 4th rounders). But I am changing my tune this week as I read that Shaun Rogers might be on the trade block in Cleveland. While I still question the Redskins being serious contenders there is little doubt that Rogers could help this team be better, and also he isn’t a 1-year fix as he is under contract for another 3 years.

As to what it would cost I really don’t know, since Rogers is still considered an elite NT, but has had the Albert Haynesworth treatment this year in Cleveland. Rogers, who is just 31, is probably a little weaker tackle than Haynesworth, but evens up the equation since he is a natual nose tackle. Given our lack of picks next year (and number of needs), the Redskins can ill afford to trade another draft pick. But it is possible the Redskins could work out a player for player deal, or add in a future draft pick. Rogers talent level would dictate premium picks, but it seems as though the rebuilding Browns want to cut ties, and start a new. Cleveland desperately needs wide receiver (after losing two to injuries in yesterday’s game) and corner back help. Washington unfortunately just cut a young receiver with upside, meaning they have no one there they can move. As for corner backs, Carlos Rogers would be enough to acquire Shaun Rogers (and then some, with the value the Browns are putting on him), but he will be an unrestricted free agent next season, giving Cleveland little reason to be interested. Also hurting Washington is one of their most marketable players, Fred Davis (not a huge need for Cleveland, but great overall upside) won’t be moved with Chris Cooley getting injured last night. The Redskins in general don’t have many players under team control past next season, and those that they do don’t really fill the Browns needs, or are too important in Washington, Moss, Orakpo, Landry etc. The following is a trade scenario that could maybe work (though much will depend on what other teams have to offer)

Trade scenario number:

Redskins Trade Derrick Dockery and a 5th round pick to the Cleveland Browns For Shaun Rogers and a 6th round pick (the one from the Broncos)

Why It works for Washington: The Redskins desperately need help in the interior of their line, and Rogers is still one of the best in the business. Washington saw Sunday night that their current NT Maake Kemoeatu can’t handle the starting role. Kemoeatu, isn’t athletic enough or quick enough to play on passing downs, and really wasn’t even in the game after the first quarter. Even when he was there Kemoeatu wasn’t commanding the double teams or getting the penetration, Washington needs to run the 3-4. Rogers despite being even bigger than Kemoeatu, is a natural NT (unlike Haynesworth) and is quick enough to play on passing downs. While like any big tackle around the league he needs his share of plays off, he makes enough impact on his snaps to wreck havoc on opposing game plans. There is no way the Colts rack up 170 rushing yards if Rogers was playing NT. And Manning would have felt more pressure up the middle (or forced them to take blockers away from Orakpo and company) if Rogers was in there. Now maybe the outcome of the game wouldn’t have been different, but it would have given the Redskins a better chance. The presence of Rogers would also allow Washington to place Haynesworth at the end spot, in the 3-4, allowing him the freedom to rush the passer more. Haynesworth playing the end, next to Rogers would be devastating to opposing offense lines. Teams have enough trouble blocking one of them, and blocking both of them is near impossible. And if you do find a way to block both of them you have to account for Brian Orakpo and any other blitzers. The only alternative for opposing offenses is to either run away from them (basically halving the field that they have to play with) or adding additional blockers (which limits their offensive capabilities). Regardless the impact of a Haynesworth-Rogers duo would be vast.

While giving up Dockery hurts the Redskins going forward, he doesn’t fit into Mike Shannahan’s offense any longer. Also by giving up a 5th rounder and getting a 6th rounder in return (maybe even a 7th rounder if that is what it takes), the Redskins don’t have a net loss on draft picks, just draft position. Now I realize most football fans don’t care much about draft picks after the top 100 players selected, but there is good value in the lower rounds. And those picks are important for the Redskins, who have a number of holes to fill after this season. They can’t all be filled via free agency (especially with the salary cap coming back).

Why It makes sense for the Browns: Cleveland has done a pretty good job of giving Rogers the Haynesworth treatment, which has almost completely killed his trade value. The Browns also already have a solid NT, who has been starting this year. While they would have gotten more this offseason if they moved Rogers, they aren’t going to increase his value by not playing him. Dockery would be a big upgrade over Floyd Womack at RG and is under team control for the next couple of years, similar to Rogers. The money is roughly about the same so the, Browns wouldn’t save a lot of money, but they would get a quality starting guard in return. In addition they’d move up in the draft, and while I’m sure they’d like to just gain a pick, moving up a round or more is significant. Cleveland is still rebuilding this year (and probably for the next few) so they should look to take what they can get for Rogers. Adding a good guard to help block for their young QB and their new punishing running back is good value.

Analysis: The Redskins would probably win in this deal, but I think they Browns would have to consider it strongly. Rogers given his contract should have big value, but Cleveland has limited it with how they have handled him. At this point they have to take what they can get. Maybe they can pry a D-linemen out of this deal (i.e. Carriker, Holliday, Jarmon…guys who are signed beyond this year) to help increase their value, but regardless it is a solid return. Dockery has played LG for the Skins, so there could be a period of adjustment, but he has always been a hard worker. Cleveland looks to be more of a power team, which fits Dockery perfectly and is probably about the best deal they can hope for. From the Washington point of view, hopefully they are smart enough to not trade Haynesworth, in which case the Redskins offensive line would go from one of their weaknesses, to one of their strengths. Not only would that be the case this year, but going forward as well. As it stands now if they were to trade Haynesworth, they would need to find both a starting quality Nose Tackle, but at least one 3-4 end who can generate pressure. Now two of the three positions would be set, and they could cobble together the rest of their linemen to handle the other one. The Redskins might be an improved team, but they won’t go far if their defense keeps giving up yards like they have. People can say they’ve played some tough offenses, but who do you think they will play in the playoffs/Super Bowl if they make it? A Rogers-Haynesworth defensive tandem, can help put them back on the map, and make that defense playoff caliber.

NFL Predictions:

September 19, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Kansas City (+3.0) @ Cleveland: The Chiefs and Browns are both pretty weak overall teams, but I really liked what I saw with Kansas City last week. Adding Dexter McCluster gave them a major special teams weapon, one that should start to see a bigger role on offense. While I’m no Matt Cassel fan, K.C. has solid receivers and a great one-two running back combo. Cleveland is an improved team, but they still have a ways to go. Their quarterback situation is completely unsettled and until that is figured out, their offense can’t get going. I like the Chiefs here to win a close one 20-17.

Pittsburgh (+5.0) @ Tennessee: Pittsburgh on the road in Tennessee is a tough match up, especially without their top quarterback. The deciding factor in the game though will be how the Steelers control Chris Johnson. Johnson has run all over ever defense that has opposed him in the last year, but if any defense can stop him it’s Pittsburgh’s. If the Steelers stop Johnson and force the Titans to throw the ball they should win, but If Johnson gets a 100 yards, you have got to like Tennessee in this one. I think Pittsburgh keeps it close, but Johnson and Tennessee breakout at the end, 23-17 Tennessee.

New England (-3.0) @ New York (Jets): Normally with the best defense and being at home the Jets should be the favorite, but their woeful offensive performance last week has them at 3.0 underdogs against their division foe. While the Patriots have a high powered offense they can’t hope to score much against the Jets top defense, but luckily their solid defense should be more than enough to hinder the Jets offense led by Mark Sanchez. Sanchez needs to come through in the clutch today if the Jets are to be taken as serious contenders, but I don’t see it happening. New England wins a low scoring affair 17-10 to take a two game lead in the division.

New York (Giants) (+5.0) @ Indianapolis: The Colts got upset last week and their soft underbelly was exposed when the Texans ran all over them for the win. Peyton Manning still threw for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s so the offense isn’t really a concern. The Colts do still need to add balance to their rushing attack, but as long as Peyton is at the helm I like the Colts in the Manning Bowl. The Giants could keep it close, but I can’t see Indianapolis losing at home to go to 0-2. While New York has a good overall defense their pass defense is a bit porous, which doesn’t bode well against Older Brother. Colts win 31-21 to even themselves up this season.

AFC North Draft Grades

April 26, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Baltimore Ravens:

Baltimore once again showed why they are one of the top teams in the league each year. They had another brilliant draft, trading out of the first round and recouping the picks they lost in their trade for Anquan Boldin. In the 2nd round the Ravens took a pair of very talented players, both of whom are perfect fits for Baltimore. OLB Sergio Kindle is a tenacious pass rusher and benefits by slipping some to the Ravens. Now instead of being one of the top guys on a bad team, Kindle can have the time to develop into a great player. He should find plenty of freedom playing along with all the starts the Ravens have on D. Baltimore’s second 2nd round pick, will do a great job in opening up holes for Kindle and the rest of the linebackers. Nose tackle Terrence Cody is a perfect fit in Baltimore. They have the depth that he won’t have to be an every down player, also his presence next to Ngata along the front line should give the Ravens a devastating run defense. After filling their defensive needs, the Ravens loaded up on pass catchers drafting tight ends in the 3rd and 4th rounds (thanks to the Tim Tebow deal) and a receiver in the 5th round. Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson are good complimentary tight ends. Dickson is the stronger, faster and more athletic one. While Pitta has great hands and instincts. Both should be immediate contributors, giving Joe Flacco one of the best arsenals in the league. Fifth round pick David Reed, was one of my favorite players in this draft and I expect him to emerge as the successor to Derrick Mason. The Ravens also added a solid DT/DE in Arthur Jones in the 5th round. He will move to end in the 3-4, but has a lot of potential. While the Ravens didn’t draft one of their bigger needs (cornerback), they added another fantastic class. When you factor in Boldin to this mix, Baltimore gets a very strong Grade A+.

Cincinnati Bengals:

The Bengals did a great job of filling their two biggest needs going into this draft, defense and pass catchers. The Bengals landed the top tight end in this draft with their first round selection of Jermaine Gresham. Gresham should give the Bengals passing game the jolt they needed last season. He has all the talent and skill to develop into an elite tight end in the NFL. In the 3rd round the Bengals grabbed Jordan Shipley who should help on special teams and as a slot receiver. He might never be a game breaker, but Shipley filled a big need for Cincinnati. Late in the draft the Bengals got great value by adding receiver Dezmon Briscoe, who was projected to go earlier in the draft. He has excellent size and speed and could develop into a starter. On defense the Bengals added four good prospects, who all have starting potential. 2nd rounder DE Carlos Dunlap, could develop into a top notch defensive end if he ever gets his mental game figured out. Cornerback Brandon Ghee was excellent value for the Bengals in the 3rd round, as were DT Geno Atkins and LB Roderick Muckelroy in the 4th round. All three of whom should be solid rotational players as rookies. The Bengals didn’t address their needs at safety, but filled every other position. While a lot of this draft is based on potential, I think the Bengals made some excellent selections. Grade B+

Cleveland Browns:

The Browns had a mixed bag with this draft. They traded away some picks to acquire Sheldon Brown and Chris Gocong and got some nice prospects, but they didn’t fill all of their needs. Joe Haden I thought was a interesting pick, since they had just acquired Sheldon Brown. Even if they do move Brown to safety, the Browns missed out on a chance to trade up for Eric Berry, who would have filled a major need for Cleveland. Considering the fact that the Browns used both their 2nd round pick and 5th round pick on safeties, it is safe to say Cleveland still was looking to upgrade the position. While I think Ward is a solid prospect and Asante offered them nice value in the 5th round, them combined don’t equal Berry, whom I think was the best player in this entire draft. For me, Ward was a bit of an overdraft and it would have made more sense to either trade back to the middle of the round or just outright select Jimmy Clausen with that pick. While they did eventually get their quarterback in the 3rd round, Clausen I feel will be ready sooner and has more upside. Trading up for Hardesty in the 2nd round was a bit of a surprise as well. While I like him as a player, they gave up a good bit to get him (picks that would have made more sense, plus others towards a deal for Berry). I did like both WR Carlton Mitchell and DE Clifton Geathers in the 6th round. I feel both have big upsides and should find roles on the Browns. Overall it seemed like a strange draft for Cleveland, where they addressed the majority of their needs but seemingly at the wrong times with the wrong players. There grade will remain high because of the addition of Brown and the talent they acquired, but I don’t know if this draft can put them back into contention. Grade B-

Pittsburgh Steelers:

The Steelers had a very good all-around draft, with the only question mark coming at the lack of drafting a corner early (they did trade for Bryant McFadden, so that did help and is weighted in this grade). Overall I loved their picks of Pouncey and Scott along the offensive line. Both players have nice upside and were good values for where they were drafted. Pouncey should start from day one in Pittsburgh and help solidify that unit. The Steelers addressed their skilled positions well, by adding a pair of receivers and a power back. WR Emmanuel Sanders in the 3rd round, offers good value and could work his way into the rotation. 6th rounder Antonio Brown, I thought was pretty underrated and should develop into a solid player, as well as helping early on in the return game. At running back the Steelers added Jonathan Dwyer, a bruising back out of Georgia Tech. A Dwyer-Mendenhall backfield should be very formidable, and Dwyer was excellent value in the 6th round. On defense the Steelers drafted 3 linebackers, one defensive end, and a corner. Most of those were depth picks but I believe the two rush linebackers they added should give them value. I’m actually higher on 4th rounder Thaddeus Gibson than 2nd rounder Jason Worilds. In fact I think Pittsburgh missed a golden opportunity with their Worilds pick. There were a number of trades at the end of that 2nd round, and if Pittsburgh had moved back they could have gotten additional picks, but also would have been able to grab one of the corners before they were all drafted at the top of Round 3. To me Worilds is more of a 3rd or 4th round prospect, and while he might fit in Pittsburgh I think he could be a bust as well. Gibson was excellent value for the 4th round, and should well continue the tradition of Pittsburgh sack masters at some point in his career. Overall I really liked what the Steelers did, but would have probably rather seen them trade back to the end of the 2nd round and grab a corner over Worilds. Other than that though I don’t have any real complaints or issues about this draft. Grade A-

Free Agency And Trade Roundup:

March 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Seahawks trade Seneca Wallace to the Browns for a conditional 2011 draft pick:

This is a great deal for the Browns, assuming that the conditional pick is in the late to mid rounds of the 2011 draft. Wallace knows Holmgren and the West Coast Offense pretty well from their days together in Seattle. While he’s not an elite quarterback, he should do well to hold down the job until a long term solution can be found. Wallace is extremely athletic, which will help make up for his lack of natural quarterback skills. Holmgren did a great job of acquiring Wallace for a conditional pick next year, now the trade will be based on merit, instead of surrendering an asset this season. The Browns have done an impressive job of stockpiling draft picks this year, and by not touching them, Cleveland can be one of the movers and shakers on draft day. The extra selections will also allow Holmgren to clean house and bring in his players. The addition of Wallace knocks down the need for a quarterback a little on the Browns off season plan, likely Cleveland will now be targeting one with one of their 3rd round picks as opposed to grabbing one in the first two rounds. Wallace also means that Derek Anderson is packing his bags, and will be released any day now. And Brady Quinn might not be too far behind him, though he is more likely to be traded.

Eagles trade Reggie Brown to the Buccaneers for a 2011 6th round pick:

This is a solid move for Tampa Bay. Though Brown had never lived up to his 2nd round draft status, he has had some productive seasons with the Eagles. With recent additions though, Brown has fallen down the depth chart, so a new start is exactly what he he needs. Tampa didn’t surrender much at all to get Brown, who has a very reasonable long term contract. The Buccaneers had perhaps the worst receiving corps in the league last year, and are losing their top target (Antonio Bryant) in free agency. Brown isn’t the solution by himself, but he does bring some talent to the position.

Steelers re-sign Ryan Clark:

The Steelers did a great job of laying in the weeds on this one. Clark seemed all but gone, as he was taking visits and scheduling other ones, but the Steelers were always still in the hunt. Pittsburgh will be revamping their corner backs, so losing their safety would have created a big hole in the secondary. It was also a good move for Clark to back to Pittsburgh, where he’s experienced his greatest success. The Steelers aggressive defense utilizes Clark’s strengths well, and helps cover up his deficiencies in pass coverage. This should be a good signing for both sides.

Steelers sign (re-sign) Antwan Randle El:

This is a big of a surprise move for both Pittsburgh and Randle El. Now that’s not to say Randle El isn’t valuable, in fact I think he was one of the better unrestricted free agent receivers available (a much better option than Nate Burleson), but I just don’t see where Randle El fits in Pittsburgh. Surprisingly last season Pittsburgh was a throwing team, and while options were limited, it didn’t seem to affect the passing attack too much. Tight end Heath Miller really stepped up his game last season and became a great target in the middle of the field. Also 3rd round pick Mike Wallace came out of no where to be Pittsburgh’s primary deep threat. At the same time Santonio Holmes put together another wonderful season and led the Steelers with over 1,200 yards. While some might say Hines Ward is getting up there in age and has lost a step, it wasn’t too apparent last year when he caught 95 balls and had over 1,100 yards. He might not stretch the field as he once did, but he is still a fantastic possession receiver.

While its good to add depth, the signing of Randle El comes one day after Pittsburgh signed free agent Arnaz Battle from San Francisco. Its hard to see where the catches Randle El and Battle get in this offense will come from. Only 62 of the 351 completed passes last year went to other targets then the Steelers big four, and almost all of those went to running backs. With Mike Wallace likely seeing more balls thrown his way and Ward, Holmes and Miller all still playing at a premium level, its hard to see Randle El getting more than 20-25 catches this season. He likely could have found a much better situation on the open market, but I do understand how returning to Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense to Randle El. The biggest winner in this deal are the Steeler fans, because the return of Randle El and the signing of Battle means that Limas Sweed has played his last game in Black and Gold.

Holmgren Going to the Browns?

December 16, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With yesterday’s report of Mike Holmgren possibly becoming the new King of Cleveland, now seems like a good time to look at what that will mean for him and the Browns. Also, we should look at how quickly head coach Eric Mangini pack his bags, which in my estimation he should be packing already.

Holmgren to the Cleveland Browns seems like a perfect match. Holmgren has already been an integral part of taking two perpetually losing franchises and putting them on the map. The Browns are one of the most storied franchises of the NFL, but their success is well in the past, and has been non-existent since the return of the Browns a decade ago. Holmgren would immediately give the Browns credibility, and finally give them someone who can make sound trades and quality draft picks.

The Browns aren’t a bad team, they’ve just been severely mismanaged. I like the defensive talent they have on the team with big time players. Guys like Shaun Rodgers, Corey Williams, D’Qwell Jackson, and Kamerion Wimbley could start on any team. Safety Brodney Pool is developing into a big time playmaker. Pool along with young players like SS Abram Elam and CB Eric Wright, give the Browns a promising secondary. Unfortunately for the Browns, the results on defense aren’t what you’d expect given the level of talent. The Browns haven’t formed one cohesive unit, leaving them open to exploitation by opposing offenses. Also their schemes have been somewhat unimaginative, and not getting the most out of their players. I believe all that can and will change if Holmgren is running the show in Cleveland. He is a no nonsense guy, and his coaching staff will force the Browns to work together as a team and demand the most out of their players.

On offense the Browns lack the talent they have on defense, but the cupboard isn’t completely bare. Along the offensive line the Browns have a solid-good left side of the line with Joe Thomas at tackle and Eric Steinbach at guard. Steinbach is a great interior lineman, who despite being a bit smaller than most guards, blocks with the best of them. Thomas has been up and down since being drafted third overall in the 2007 draft, but he’s still a top notch tackle. At center, rookie Alex Mack has done a pretty good job of handling the elite nose tackles of the AFC North. The right side of the line has been the Achilles Heel of the Browns this season, and will need a drastic upgrade in the offseason. The Browns biggest problem is their lack of playmakers on offense. Josh Cribbs is a terrific weapon and a home run threat any time he touches the ball, but the problem is he’s not touching it enough on offense (and no I don’t think he should be solely converted to a running back). The real issue with Cribbs is there is no other offensive player worth covering over him. If the Browns had better options among there receivers than maybe you could find a way to get Cribbs open. As it stands now he’s the only threat they have. The Browns running attack will only get worse next year when its expected that Jamal Lewis will retire, leaving one of the league’s worse rushing teams without their ‘best’ runner. At quarterback I’m not as critical of Brady Quinn as others are, just in the way he has been used this season. There is no reason that Derek Anderson should have played as much as he did, considering how bad his numbers were. Benching Quinn for a half or a game I can understand, you are trying to send a message to your young quarterback and team. But benching him for 5 1/2 weeks is insane. Quinn needed all the time he could get this season, to see if he is legit NFL starting quarterback. You can’t take a third of the season away from him and still expect to answer that question. I don’t think Quinn is elite, but if they gave him some actual weapons and improved that offensive line, I do feel he could be a solid quarterback in this league.

It is because of the way he handled Quinn, if not for the other screw ups on offense, that Mangini needs to be replaced by the new regime. Mangini may know how to run an offense (though there is yet to be any evidence of that in Cleveland), but he knows nothing of running a team. From day one he offended the top players on the Browns, creating divisions in the locker room. Not to mention the fact, that at one time he benched his best offensive lineman (Steinbach) in mini-camps, and allowed a promising young rookie to practice without pads on (RB James Davis), only to see him get injured is lunacy. If Holmgren takes the job his first order of business needs to be replacing Mangini.

That brings us to the only negative with hiring a guy like Holmgren to take over football operations in Cleveland, is who does he bring in as coach? I think you can cross off your list the other big name coaches like Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher and Mike Shanahan. While all of those guys would form an “Unholy Alliance” in Cleveland, none of them would likely want to work under another “coach”. One big name that could be a possibility would be John Gruden. Yes Gruden just signed an extension with MNF, but deals like that can be broken if needed. Remember Gruden got his start in the NFL under Holmgren, first in San Francisco and next in Green Bay. Also Gruden was born in Ohio and went to college there. A Holmgren-Gruden marriage is possible and could be the recipe for returning the Browns to greatness.