A Guest Blog By Fanspeak contributing writer Kyle Howard:

Just about a month away from the offical start of the MLB 2011 season. Many offseason publicity and free agency moves make this year in the MLB very interesting. Crawford to the Red Sox, Cliff Lee back to the Phillies, Werth to the Nationals, and Rafeal Soriano are only some of the new faces, in new places from this years offseason transactions. Here is my run through on my projections for this year:

AL East:

1) Red Sox; It kills me to put the Soxs as my division winners being a diehard Yankees fan but the Red Sox really beefed up their line up with the acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Their line up is as good as any in baseball and their pitching staff when healthy is top 5 in the league. Look for the Sox to make it back to October with either a division title or a wild card spot.

2) Yankees; Many Yankee fans look at this offseason as a failure. Not being able to convince Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke to come to New York was a tough pill to swallow. Their line up is still as lethal as any in the game and with the acquisition of Rafeal Soriano to help set up Rivera in the 9th really helped the needs of the bullpen. The starting pitching is going to be the real question mark throughout the season. If Burnett can turn his season around, Nova can turn into an every 5 day starter and the Mark Prior project can make strides, the Yankees will be pushing for yet another division title. Look for them to contend with the Sox until the last month of the season and either walking away with a wild card spot or best case scenario a division title.

3) Orioles; The Orioles are my surprise team of the league this year. They have done a great job of loading up on young talent and I feel that 2011 is the year they start making some noise. With Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters being the focal points of this team, the pitching talent needs to step up and you may be looking at a very dangerous team in the next few years. Look for the Orioles to have an above average year and finishing 3rd in the AL East.

4) Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay is in a transitioning period. They lost Crawford, Garza, and Soriano to free agentcy/trades and that leaves some big holes to fill for some young talented players in their farm system. With the acquistion of Manny and Damon, the Rays bring in some experience to their club with a more risk/reward mentality. The Rays staff is still a dangerous one lead by David Price and Evan Longoria will only improve and maybe a darkhorse candidate for MVP this year. Give the Rays some time to develop and they will be back in the postseason within the next couple of weeks.

5) Toronto; With still lingering questions on what Toronto’s next move is going to be, look for them to have a down year this year. Jose Bautista coming off a 54 home run year campaign and getting an extention I could see having a downer year. With some young potential pitching talent, look for the Blue Jays to use those as trade bait especially strikeout specialist Brandon Morrow.

AL Central:

1) Twins; It is difficult for me to pick a winner in this division being as the parity is so well distributed, so I will take experience and choose the Twinkees as the division winner. With Morneau coming back and the ability to resign Pavano, who is an innings machine, the Twins are poised to be the front runners of this jam packed division. If Nathan comes back healthy from his season ending surgury last year look for the Twins to be the winners of this division.

2) White Sox; Last year was a disappointment for the White Sox. With much publicity hovering over Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox struggled for most of the season. With the key offseason acquistion of Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko this team will have quite a powerful 4 and 5 spots in their line up. Also, Buerhle leading the staff followed by Floyd and Danks, look for this team to contend with the Twins for the division title and the loser will be in the wild card hunt.

3) Tigers; The Tigers 2011 season is on the shoulders of how healthy/sober Miguel Cabrera can be. The man has as much talent as their is in the MLB but, off field troubles have put the Tigers in a spin. Offseason acquistion Victor Martinez adds some power to a line up that was in desperate need for help around Cabrera.  Verlander leads this young staff, and when he is on is one of the most powerful pitchers in the league. A sophmore slump from promising young star Rick Porcello was a key difference maker in the Tigers 2010 season. If Porcello can get over his 2nd year struggles, look for the Tigers to contend for a majority of the season, but I feel the off the field publicity and inexperience in pitching will lead them to a 3rd place finish.

4) Royals; Its been a bad decade for the Royals but, this year,  I can see them making some strides to becoming a better squad. Alex Gordon needs to become the player we all thought he would become when he was drafted 4th overall in 2005. Luke Hochevar splashed onto the scene last year with a decent season and showing signs he could become a decent starter at the Major league level. The Royals still have a long way to go but, if their draft picks start stepping up the next 5 years could look promising for this squad.

5) Indians; The Indians are in the rebuilding stage as an organization. With many young prospects gained from the Cliff Lee trade and Victor Martinez trade, look for this team to show a lot of new faces this year. Shin soo Choo is a rising star in the outfield showing signs of power and batting average and a good piece to build around. This will be a struggling year for the Indians and will stay that way unless they make some noise at the trade deadline.

AL West:

1) Angels; Coming off a very disappointing season last year look for the Angels to make it back to the postseason this year. With a star studed staff lead by Jared Weaver, Scott Kazmir, and Ervin Santana look for the pitching to help carry this team into October. Kendry Morales maybe the biggest difference maker on this team this season. If he comes back as healthy as he was before his ACL accident, look for him to be another darkhorse MVP candidate.

2) Texas; Losing Cliff Lee to free agency crippled this teams potential for years to come. Coming off of the organizations first World Series experience the sky was the limit for this team. Led by MVP Josh Hamilton and power slugging OF Nelson Cruz, this team will go as far as these 2 stars can stay healthy. With questions surrounding the starting staff, look for the Rangers to pick up an arm at the trade deadline in hopes of making another push into October.

3) Athletics; The Athletics have one of the best young pitching staffs in baseball and they live and die on how well these young guns can do. Grant Balfour, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill,  Brett Anderson, and Andrew Bailey are the cornerstones of this young franchise. Dont be surprised if they A’s make a push at the deadline by moving one of these players for a bat in an often weak line up with an aging Eric Chavez. Look for the Athletics to continue rebuilding and continue improvement for years to come.

4) Mariners; The Mariners need power and they need it fast. The Mariners were last in almost every statistical batting category last year and they need to add some power to that line up. With much promise in former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley from UNC, it wont be a surprise to see him starting by mid season. Felix Hernandez is just a decent offensive team away from being arguably the best pitcher and baseball and look for him to continue his dominence in 2011.

NL East:

1) Phillies; Many analyst have it already penciled in that the Phillies will be holding up another World Series Title come October in 2011. With possibly the best 4 starters ever to be assembled on a single team, look for them to dominate most of the teams in the NL. Additions such as Cliff Lee only make this team even stronger and a star studded line up to back him up it will be quite a challenge to take this team in a 7 game series. With Werth gone that opens up the spot for top prospect Dominic Brown to take the rains of right field. The Phillies will walk away with this division and by July be focusing on the Playoffs.

2) Braves; The Braves suprised many of us last year and this year are a team not to mess with. With Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe leading the staff and the emergence of Jason Heyward becoming a star in the MLB, and the acquisition of Dan Uggla,  look for the Braves to win a wild card and being on an upset alert come playoff time.

3) Marlins; The Marlins have been trying to develop young talent for most of the past couple of years in hopes of turning into a legit playoff squad. Lead by MVP candidate Hanley Rameriz and pitching stud Josh Johnson, the Marlins are looking for an additional bat and arm to help make a charge at a competitive East division.

4) Mets; I really do not know where to start with Los Mets. They have as much talent as a team would need to make an apperance in the postseason but, for some reason they never seem to all click at the same time. Look for this years Mets team to be centered around David Wright and a healthy Jose Reyes. Pitching is very suspect due to Johan having elbow surgery. Look for the Mets to try and compete but come up short in the East race.

5) Nationals; Being from Northern Virginia and having been to multiple Nats games its difficult for me to put them in this position. Strasburg is what brought this team alive and made them play with passion and pride but, with Tommy John Surgery dont look for Strasburg to be throwing until September, if they even decide to let him throw at all. With key acquistion of Jayson Werth, the Nats will be along the same lines of production as last year. The future looks bright in Washington and if Strasburg can come back as good as he left, and Harper doesn’t disappoint down in the minors, this team will be fun to watch in the coming years.

NL Central:

1) Cubs; I know its as shocking to you as it is to me that the Cubs are going to finish first in the division. The Cubs made a key move in acquiring Garza this winter, and if their young talent continues to produce look for them to be a sneaky good team come playoff time. This pick is definitely a stretch and my upset of the year.

2) Reds; The surprise team of the year in 2010, the Reds will be looking to capitalize on thier run last year and continue it into this year. Joey Votto is the leader of this squad and looks to duplicate is MVP year last year and transition it to this year. Pitching was a strong point for the Reds last year but, I feel that they will struggle this year with to much inconsistentcy. Look for the Reds to make it back to the post season and be a contender as a wild card.

3) Cardinals; The Cardinals would be first in the Central if it werent for the staggering news on Adam Wainwright out for the season. The loss of Wainwright equals trouble for this club. With the huge injury to the staff and an unhappy Albert Pujols, look for this club to have a difficult time with all the distractions and end up chasing a wild card spot.

4) Brewers; The Brewers have 2 young stars in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, arguably 1 of the best tandems in the league. With the line up set up to produce runs the Brewers made a huge trade in aquiring Zack Greinke to help with the staff. Look for the Brewers to improve and possibly take the Cardinals spot and fighting for a spot in the post season.

5) Astros; It is easy to say that the Astros are in a rebuilding year. Losing Roy Oswalt to a trade pretty much sums it up. With young talent in the minors and an aging outfield minus Hunter Pence, look for the Astros to struggle most the year and look to being sellers at the deadline

6) Pirates; This team is the only team that manages to get great prospects and trade them away. The Pirates have not had a well established club since the 80′s and I don’t see that happening this year. Their one true star Andrew McCutchen is a lead-off hitter and you can’t build a team around that. Zack Duke will finish with a sub .500 win record and they will use many new arms from their farm system this year. Sorry so called “City of Champions” but you may want to concentrate on NFL happening in the fall and Crosby recovering over watching this squad this year.

NL West:

1) Giants; The defending World Series Champions have to be the favorites to come out of this jam packed West division. Offseason loss of World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria, leaves a big hole at shortstop and Juan Uribe’s departure to division rival LA leaves a big spot open at the utility role. With the young guns on the pitching staff such as Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner leading the way and crazy Wilson closing out games, look for this team to make it back to the Postseason in a coinflip of a division.

2) Rockies; the Rockies struggled last year despite the fact they are known as being a second half team only 2 years removed from their prolific playoff run. With flame thrower Ubaldo Jimenez leading the staff and Troy Tulowitzki the captain of the team. Look for the Rockies to make some noise and be a strong challenger for being the wild card team come October.

3) Padres; the Padres had a banner of a year last season coming down to the wire last season with the Giants going into the last game of the season. The Padres have an underrated pitching staff lead by rising star Mat Latos, with verterans such as Jon Garland to help mentor the fire baller. Free Agency hit the Padres hard by losing their superstar first basemen Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. I can see the Padres relying on their arms to keep them in the race but with no one significant to replace Gonzalez, runs are going to be hard to come by for this club.

4) Diamondbacks; This team is tricky to pick. One day their hot the next day their not. After giving up Dan Haren to the Angels in return for some prospects, the diamondbacks are clearly a process in the making. Relying heavily on star outfielder Justin Upton is going to be too much for this team to overcome.

Playoff Predition:

AL                                           NL                                         World Series

Red Sox                              Giants                               Phillies vs. Red Sox

Yankees                            Cubs                                         Phillies win 4-2

Angels                               Phillies

Twins                                 Rockies

Cubs Lock Up Carlos Pena: It was a bit of a surprising move since Chicago wasn’t as closely linked to Pena as some other teams were, but fills a major need for the Cubs. The terms are a bit surprising at 1 year for $10 million, since Pena is coming off his worst professional season. Even if it was just a one year deal, I’m shocked Chicago went 8 figures for him. Now I would have understood $6 million with another $4 million in incentives, but then at least he’d be earning a big part of that contract. If Pena doesn’t rebound, this could be a big waste of money for Chicago and a huge regret. The free agent first base market got noticeably thinner with this deal, and it could lead to some interesting trades.

Angels Get Involved In the Cliff Lee Market: With the Angels stocked full of pitching and expressing an interest in a number of other key free agents, no one ever thought they were a serious suitor for Cliff Lee. That might be on the verge of changing as the Angels are expected to make a serious bid for the ace. Some of the thinking is that Lee’s two most likely destinations, Rangers and Yankees, are big time rivals of the Angels, and would hurt L.A.’s playoff chances if he signs with either one of them. On the flip side though, their biggest needs are on offense and in their bullpen, and it might be hard to fill those if they sign Lee. Sure they could then trade one of their starters to save money/bring in talent, but it might not be as beneficial as signing Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre.

White Sox and Konerko Parting Ways?: The White Sox seem to be taking a firm line with Paul Konerko in their latest negotiations with their star first baseman, but really I think it is just posturing. The free agent market has really dried up, and if they lose Konerko their signing of Dunn will be a little more than a wash. Chicago needs Konerko at this point, and I really can’t see him playing anywhere else. Yes, he might have a few other suitors but none of them are as close to winning as Chicago is. I’m guessing it ends up being a 3 year $40.5 million deal, which is just under the average that Dunn was signed for.

With baseball’s Winter Meetings starting next week and X-mas just around the corner, I thought it was a good time to look at what is on every team’s wish list this December. If a team is expected to make any significant signings or trades I’ll feature them. But if they are likely sitting on the sidelines this winter, then they only have three wishes: good health, development by their prospects, and bargain shopping in 2011 before the season starts.

First up American League:

AL East:

New York Yankees:

Cliff Lee: There is little surprise on what tops their wish list, as landing an ace starting pitcher is their top priority.Lee is really the only guy available who fits the bill. New York needs to hope their money and winning reputation sway Lee away from his other suitors.

Derek Jeter: The Yankees negotiations with their ‘Captain’ haven’t been too pretty and have in fact served as more of a distraction than anything else. The Yankees need Jeter to come to his senses quickly and sign his deal, before it looks any worse than it already is.

A.J. Burnett: New York invested big money into Burnett two years ago and already they are regretting their decision. Burnett needs to figure out his issues quick, as he can’t afford to start off the season badly. Not only will it hurt the Yankees playoff hopes, but a bad start will doom him in New York, meaning the Yankees may have to eat his contract just to appease the fans.

Boston Red Sox:

Crawford or Werth: Boston is in hot pursuit of the top two free agent outfielders and they need to land one if the Yankees make a big move (i.e. signing Lee). Either OF will fit in well in Boston and continue to make that lineup one of the best in the league.

Gonzalez or Fielder: While it is a bit quite of late, I still think the Red Sox will end up with either Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder from the trade market this offseason. Both are impending free agents and likely to be dealt by their current team. Gonzalez is a better fit for Boston given his defense, and higher likelihood of negotiating a more team friendly extension. If Boston lands one of them, plus one of the top outfielders, they should pass the Yankees for the best lineup in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Trade Jason Bartlett: This could happen in the next few days, as Tampa does not want to pay Bartlett’s arbitration salary this coming season. While Bartlett won’t bring back a major haul, they should expect to get back a solid middle reliever, who is young and cost controlled.

Rebuild Their Bullpen: The Rays have a number of free agent defections from their bullpen and given their budget, they will likely have to build from within or through trades. In addition to the likelihood of  a Bartlett for middle reliever swap, I’d look for Tampa to make a bigger deal with their considerable prospect depth to add a back of the bullpen arm.

Add a Quality Bat: With holes at 1B, LF (could be filled by rookie Desmond Jennings) and DH, the Rays could use at least one bat to keep them on the cusp of contention. Since the free agent market is likely too expensive, the Rays will likely look for a bat on the trade market. I would count them out of the Gonzalez/Fielder markets given their salary price tags, and what it would cost in terms of prospects. Names like Billy Butler, Josh Willingham, Luke Scott could all be on their radar this offseason.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Make a Splash: The Blue Jays might be rebuilding, but this team was competitive without any of their top prospects making a significant impact. I think Toronto will make a bold move such as trading for Greinke or Justin Upton (Billy Butler could be on their wish list as well). Trading for a star caliber player could really make this team a threat in the East, though I don’t think they should give up too much in the way of young talent.

Find a First Baseman: While Adam Lind is a distinct internal possibility, I would expect the Jays to find a new first baseman for next season. Trading for Billy Butler should be high on their list, but if they decide to move some of their young talent for a different star, the Blue Jays still have options on the free agent market (though they are dwindling fast). Adam LaRoche or Derek Lee would be good fits in Toronto, as could Carlos Pena if they expect a bounce back year.

Add a 3B/2B: Right now the Jays have a hole at 3B that they could fill by moving 2B Aaron Hill there, but that would only create an issue up the middle. The free agent market won’t yield any great 3B (unless they buck up to sign Beltre), so a trade could be an option. They could also look to bring back Orlando Hudson to fill 2B and move Hill over. Hudson wouldn’t be a long term fix, but he’d be a solid short term addition.

Add some relievers: The Jays are losing a couple quality relievers in the free agent market and will either need to add some arms via trade or from the market. Given their young staff, and the likely ascension of some young prospects, they could use a good bullpen to help protect their young arms.

Baltimore Orioles:

Add a 1B/DH bat: The O’s have struck out with two of their top free agent options, Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn so far this offseason and they are likely to miss out on another one, as Paul Konerko is likely to resign with the White Sox. The 1B/DH market is drying up fast with Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena, Derek Lee and Lance Berkman the only real options left. The O’s need to land one of them, but at this point they need to make sure they aren’t overpaying, since none of them are true stars. Baltimore should look to focus their money on their other needs such as 3B.

Go Hard After Adrian Beltre: At this point the O’s are going to have to overpay to land a star, and Beltre is probably the best chance the O’s have at landing one. Now they aren’t alone in the market and it will cost quite a bit, but Beltre could be worth it. He is a very good defender at 3B, and at 32 should be productive for another couple of years. It still could be a pipe dream, but Baltimore needs to be aggressive.

Add Some Relief Pitching: The Orioles have a promising young staff, but their bullpen was a mess last year. They need to add a couple free agent arms to turn that into a strength and help protect their rotation.

Add a Shortstop: It is not a good year to be needing a shortstop, but the Orioles need to find someway to get better production out of that position. Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy head their list, but other options could become available. Who ever they find, Baltimore needs to ensure they offer some production from that area.

AL Central:

Chicago White Sox:

Bring Back Konerko: With the addition of Adam Dunn, the White Sox finally have the hitter who can help protect Paul Konerko in the middle of the lineup. Now they just need to ensure Konerko is in that lineup. I fully expect a deal to get done in the next couple of days, which will fully cover their DH/1B positions.

Find a LF: I know a lot of people like Juan Pierre for his speed and defense, but he is a bit of a liability in LF. He just doesn’t get on base enough or have any power to speak of to justify a corner outfield spot. While his defense was exceptional in LF, you have to get better than a .312 wOBA from your LF if you want to be a contender. There aren’t any real free agent options available, but don’t be shocked if the White Sox target someone like Josh Willingham or Luke Scott. Alex Gordon could also be an option if they go for a more unproven player.

Add Relief Pitching: In their pursuit for adding Dunn and Konerko, the White Sox made a tough choice by releasing long time closer Bobby Jenks to save some money. While fiscally it makes some sense, it leaves that bullpen a little short right now. A couple relievers should be acquired by trade or through free agency to help offset the loss.

Kansas City Royals:

Make the Best Deal(s) Possible: The Royals are in an enviable position with the best farm system in baseball, and a number of quality trade-able pieces. The Royals have the best SP (Greinke), Closer (Joakim Soria) and one of the top bats (Butler) on the trade market. In addition to their big names, the Royals have Alex Gordon and Robinson Tejada, who are both good 2nd tier trade targets. Now I wouldn’t expect to see all 5 dealt before the start of the season, but at least 2 should be moved by then, and all of them could be gone by the start of 2012. The Royals need to make the best trades possible and should target middle infield help, outfielders (in particular center fielders), frontline starting pitching, and maybe a 3B. Kansas City can basically name their own price.

Detroit Tigers:

The Tigers have already done most of their heavy lifting this offseason, with Victor Martinez their top prize. I don’t think they are done just yet, but they might not make any more major moves. If they do here is what they might target:

OF help: The Tigers are rumored to still be in the Werth and Crawford sweepstakes, but I’m not too sure they can swing a deal. My guess is they will look to the trade market for a quality OF bat (usual suspects, Willingham, Scott etc.) to fill their need.

Relief Pitching: They have already added Benoit, but my guess is they add another solid arm before the start of the season. I don’t see them adding a starter, but I think their staff could use some help.

Minnesota Twins:

The Twins aren’t supposed to be too active this offseason beyond resigning Jim Thome and agreeing to a deal with the Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who can play either SS or 2B. The Twins could be trading J.J. Hardy, though that is far from being set in stone. The one thing the Twins could be looking at is making a big trade:

Make a Splash: In back-to-back years the Twins have gotten swept out of the Playoffs by the New York Yankees, so they need to find a way to get better if they want to advance further in 2011. The Twins have a quality system, so they do have the pieces to swing a major deal or two. Given their depth across the board, they could target any number of positions. Starting pitching is a top priority, but I don’t see them getting in the Greinke sweepstakes (more because I really don’t see the Royals trading him in the division unless the Twins vastly overpay).

Cleveland Indians:

Cleveland falls into the category of teams who are really not expected to do anything significant this offseason, and they will be bargain shopping this year.

AL West:

Texas Rangers:

Sign Cliff Lee: The Rangers are the Yankees toughest competition in the Lee Sweepstakes and if the money is close enough he could prefer to stay in Texas. If the Rangers land Lee, then they won’t have much additional money to spend, but they should be pretty well set for another World Series run.

Trade for Zack Greinke: If the Rangers fail to land Lee, they should be one of the favorites to land Greinke. It will cost quite a bit in prospects, but his team friendly contract will allow the Rangers to add another free agent or two.

Add A DH: Vlad is gone, so it is time for Texas to find another decent designated hitter to insert into their lineup. The usual 1B suspects could be options, though most likely could find an actual 1B job. Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui could fit, but neither would have any impact in the field. The could go down the trade route for a Billy Butler (especially if they sign Lee) or a Luke Scott. Both are fairly cheap, while having the ability to help in the field as well.

Los Angeles Angels:

Carl Crawford: The Angels are expected to go all-in for Crawford and basically make him an offer he can’t refuse. Crawford would be a huge free agent signing for the Angels and it would drastically improve their chances for reclaiming the AL West. If they miss out on Crawford, they will go hard after Werth, but he seems to be not nearly as high on their wish list.

Adrian Beltre: Whether they get Crawford or not, Beltre figures to be high on the Angels wish list. They need more power in their lineup and 3B is an issue for them. He won’t come cheap and it is possible that he and Crawford would cost to much, but the Angels should be a serious suitor for him.

Add Bench and Relief Depth: The Angels have a good lineup and starting rotation, but they need to add better depth to ensure that injuries don’t sink their season like last year. I’d look for them to have a couple known players on the bench/bullpen, as they look to build a playoff contender.

Oakland A’s:

The A’s have already done some of their hard work this offseason by adding David DeJesus to their outfield, but they still have a ways to go. For the most part I’d expect them to fill their needs from within, but they could make at least one significant move.

Add a DH: The A’s seem poised to try power hitting 1B/DH prospect Chris Carter in the outfield (not too sure if that will work), and add a legitimate designated hitter this offseason. It is no shock that the A’s need to generate power, but it might make more sense to play Carter at DH and add an OF. Right now I don’t see that happening, so I’m guessing they end up signing one of the 1B/DH types on the market this year.

Outside of that 3B and RP could be an issue, but one that might not be fully addressed this offseason.

Seattle Mariners:

The Mariners are expected to sit quietly this offseason as they look to rebuild. One of two moderate signings may occur in January, but I think that is all you will see right now.

Check back later as I look at the NL’s X-Mas/Winter Meetings Wish List!

Last year the Chicago White Sox added Alex Rio through a straight wavier claim, and while at the time it was considered a risky move (committing over $55 million to a struggling player) it has paid off nicely for Chicago. Now the White Sox hope they can add another bat without having to dip into their struggling farm system. Chicago won the waiver claim on Manny Ramirez and it appears they will get him without having to give anything up but money.

The White Sox desperately needed to add a bat as they have fallen 4.5 games out of first place (and basically out of the Wild Card hunt. While overall they are a good hitting team they lack production from both their DH and LF spots (Pierre’s average and OBP are okay, but a .673 OPS from your left fielder will kill you), two areas Manny can help the White Sox. Now this isn’t the Manny Ramirez of old, but he can still be a solid run producer in the middle of the White Sox lineup. And considering Chicago is only having to give up $3.8 million it is well worth it for the offensive upgrade.

The White Sox though need to hope Ramirez is enough for them to restart their playoff run which has fallen fast this past month. At the trade deadline the White Sox added Edwin Jackson (who despite missing a start has been excellent for them) to their rotation, but they left their lineup alone. Potential deals for Adam Dunn and other offensive upgrades fell through, and now the White Sox are scrambling to catch up to the Twins in the Central. Ramirez might end up being too little too late for the White Sox.

While some might fault the Dodgers for just giving Manny away, I really don’t think L.A. had much choice. Despite adding some talent at the trade deadline the Dodgers have fallen 10 games out of 1st place and more than 6 games out of the Wild Card race. In addition Ramirez has said that he didn’t want to return to L.A. next season (and it is quite likely the Dodgers didn’t want to bring him back as well) meaning the Dodgers needed to cash in now to get any return for their one time star. While they didn’t get a prospect back the Dodgers did get some extra money. And while maybe that isn’t important to most fans, hopefully the Dodgers will use that money to supplement their payroll or draft budget next year allowing them to bring in additional talent. It’s not an ideal move for Los Angeles, but it really is the best they could hope for at this point.

There are a lot of confusing rumors out there surrounding Adam Dunn and the Nationals trade demands, but one thing that had been persistent was the rumor that the Nationals wanted D-backs (at the time) pitcher Edwin Jackson. Despite the fact this made little sense from the Nationals perspective this rumor persisted, and got on fire when the White Sox acquired Jackson from the Diamondbacks and seemed ready to deal him for Dunn. Now wisely the the Nationals are balking at Jackson, but in doing so they might have burned a big suitor for Dunn and really hampered their ability to make a deal.

Whether or not this is true, there is a good deal of smoke here, so presumably there is some fire to it. And if it is holding up Dunn talks then it doesn’t really matter who’s fault it is, that perception alone is hurting the Nationals. Now I have applauded Mike Rizzo since he took over as the Nationals General Manager, and think he has made some good moves. But I for the life of me don’t understand his interest in Edwin Jackson, particularly as part of a deal for one of your major trade chips.

Jackson has always been an extremely promising pitcher with loads of potential, but he has never reached that ace level. He has never been a real consistent pitcher, and has always had major control and command problems. While he put together decent years in 2008 and 2009 making you believe that he was finally becoming a front line pitcher, Jackson regressed sharply this year. Even when he threw a no-hitter this year, he walked 8 batters. Jackson isn’t exactly the type of pitcher you hope to build your staff around, and he really doesn’t fit the profile of the player who gets traded for a 40 HR hitter.

What makes it even more bizarre that the Nationals even wanted him, is his contract. Jackson, despite his age (26), isn’t some young pitcher with 3+ years of team control left, he is entering his final year before free agency and it is a bit of an expensive one ($8.35). Add in the $2 million he is still owed this year, and that is a lot of money to pay for a veteran pitcher, especially when you aren’t contending. Now the Nationals may go acquire another veteran starter this offseason, via trade or free agency, but they aren’t going to sacrifice their top trade chip to do so. That just doesn’t make any sense. Even if you get a good quality prospect with Jackson, you are still taking on an expensive pitcher that you don’t need instead of additional prospects.

Personally from the Nationals perspective I would much rather have the two prospects they sent in the Jackson deal, than Jackson. RHP Dan Hudson is basically Major League ready. He profiles as a 3rd-4th starter, and should do well in the National League. He might not offer more upside than Jackson, but he is under team control for another 6 years, and the first 3 of those combined (plus this year) won’t be as much money as the Nationals would owe to Jackson for the rest of this season. In addition the White Sox sent 19 year old LHP David Holmberg, who is a young kid with a lot of projection. He is years away and needs to develop a better fastball to stay in the rotation, but he has promise. If the White Sox offered the Nats those two pitchers plus one of their top hitting prospects that would have been a good deal for Adam Dunn.

Now even if the White Sox are happy keeping Jackson (which does make some sense since they need another pitcher these next two years, and are a contender) I don’t know if they have the pieces to make this deal work. Hudson and Holmberg were probably the two best pitchers in the White Sox system (yeah it is a pretty bare cupboard in Chicago), meaning this deal will have to involve multiple young hitters. Involving multiple young hitters isn’t an issue as the White Sox have a few intriguing names, and the Nationals need to add young bats, but the White Sox hitters don’t match up well with Washington. Chicago’s top prospect Jared Mitchell has missed this entire season with an injury and no one knows how he will be when he recovers, so he is likely out. Two of their next two guys are kinda redundant in D.C., C Tyler Flowers and 3B Brent Morel. Flowers would have been a great get a couple days ago, but now that the Nationals added Wilson Ramos to their catching mix, Flowers is a bit less attractive. Morel looks like he is a 3B only, which is problematic since the Nationals have Ryan Zimmerman there. CF Jordan Danks is an option, though some of his luster has worn off with a tough year in AAA. He is still a nice young prospect, but it seems clear that Chicago rushed him a little bit. 3B-1B Dayan Viciedo is an interesting option, but he is up with the big league club so I think Chicago will be reluctant to deal him. If the Nationals can get two of these players, plus a lesser prospect or two they can still get good value for Dunn.

I still don’t fully believe that the door is closed on the White Sox getting Dunn, but it probably has gotten harder given the Jackson ‘miscommunication’. The White Sox still need a big bat for a serious postseason run and the Nationals would be wise to cash in on Dunn’s value so the motivation remains, right now I’d put the chances at a Dunn trade to the White Sox at about 40%.

The trade market for Adam Dunn seems to be heating up and yesterday we got an inside look into it what the Nationals are looking for and the possible parameters of a deal. ESPN Chicago’s Bruce Levine heard from sources that the Nationals want RHP Dan Hudson (MLB/AAA) and one of CF Jordan Danks (AAA), 3B Brent Morel (AAA), C Tyler Flowers (AAA) in any deal. Now the question becomes would this deal be enough for the Nationals to move their 40 HR slugger?

I believe the answer to that question is yes with a couple of conditions. One, I believe the White Sox need to pay the entire remaining portion of Dunn’s salary (about $5.5 million). And two, I think the White Sox will need to add a third and possibly fourth piece to this deal, likely nothing of major significance. With at least 5 other teams in the Dunn hunt, I think Chicago will have to increase their offer a little bit.

As for the players we do know, I like Hudson, but think he peaks as a 3rd starter. That being said, he makes a fine centerpiece in the deal for Dunn. He will give the Nats 6 years of team control and he is pretty much ready to pitch in the big leagues today. He isn’t a 100% sure thing, but he should make it in the majors. Hudson should also benefit with a move to the National League and a more neutral ballpark.

As for the other part of the deal, I personally like Tyler Flowers the best, followed by Brent Morel, and then Jordan Danks. All three players have upside, but Flowers is far and away the best fit. Morel is the best pure hitter, a solid defender, and probably just a year away. But his power barely gets by at 3B, and that position won’t be open in D.C. for quite sometime. He isn’t a good fit to move to the outfield or 1B given his lack of power, and would really only make sense to the Nats for prospect depth to trade away.

Danks for me doesn’t make much sense in Washington either, he’s a nice player but has been over-hyped in a weak Chicago system. Yes he plays solid centerfield, but Chicago challenged him too much by starting him off in AAA and it has not worked. He is probably at least 2 years away from heading to the majors and this year’s set back has taken some of the luster off of Danks. If he reaches his upside, he could be a Jim Edmonds out in center, but there aren’t any guarantees. And unless he reaches his full potential he might not be able to crack the Nationals lineup.

For me process of elimination alone makes Flowers the choice, but he is more than just the last man standing among Chicago’s top prospects. Flowers is having a bit of a down year in AAA, yet still has an OPS of .780. Flowers has big time power and solid plate discipline, that should allow his bat to play at the major league level. Also while early in his career there were questions as to whether or not he could stay behind the plate, he has developed into a solid defensive catcher. Flowers is major league ready now and could start splitting time with Pudge Rodriguez (can’t get much better of an apprenticeship than that), and possibly take over for him as a starter some point next season. While the Nats have a good young catching prospect in Derek Norris, he is probably 3 years away and could even help headline a major trade himself in a year or two when the Nats look to add a big time player for a stretch run. Flowers is the best bet for the Nationals given his proximity to the majors and the position he plays, and I would definitely do a Hudson-Flowers deal.

A Hudson-Flowers trade plus 1-2 lower minor league players (likely pitchers) is a good return for 2 months of Adam Dunn, and worth more than the 2 draft picks the Nats would receive in the offseason. While it is still possible another team offers a better young prospect or prospects, a Dunn-White Sox union seems likely.

First, I just want to say as a fan I love all three players, and am happy to have watched them and even met them at Fanfest. All three are great guys, and exceptionally nice, and all seem like stand up guys in the locker room as well. But the problem is, what is best for the Nationals future is to sacrifice the present. Dunn, Willingham and Capps are having career years (or close to it), and yet the Nationals are still in last place in the N.L. East and have the 7th worst record in all of baseball. And this is coming on the heels of having the worst record in baseball last season, with Dunn and Willingham in the middle of the lineup.

While a fan might point out that the injury bug has wrecked havoc on the pitching staff this year with Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler missing the whole season so far and Jason Marquis and Scott Olsen missing significant time, they need to realize the Nats have had a lot go right this season as well. Not only are Dunn, Willingham, and Capps exceeding expectations, but Ryan Zimmerman, Tyler Clippard, Pudge Rodriguez, and Livan Hernandez have played excellent ball as well. In addition rookies Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Roger Bernadina have had major contributions right off the bat. So while the injuries in their rotation have set them back, rookies and veterans alike are preforming at or well above expectations, and the Nationals are still in the bottom third of baseball. Now the optimist might say, well just wait till next year when J-Zim and Detwiler can join the rotation full time and add another piece or two in free agency, but that ignores the possibility that other players could get injured or have their performances collapse. And when it comes down to it, the Nationals (knock on wood) have been barely touched by the injury bug. Look at division rivals like the Phillies or Mets. Philadelphia has been without Placido Palanco, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and J.A. Happ for significant portions of the season and the Mets have been without Beltran all season and have been without Jon Niese and Jose Reyes for solid chunks of time as well. Are we really going to complain that we didn’t have Marquis and Zimmermann, when these teams are without front line guys?

Another problem with the ‘wait till next year approach’ is that unlike this year when the Nationals were going to have a boost of rookies, there are no more reinforcements in the upper minors for Washington to call on. With the promotions of Strasburg, Storen, Desmond and Bernadina, the well is pretty dry at the AAA and AA levels for the Nationals. What you see is what you get with this team. That means any additional talent will need to come from the free agent or trade market (and you don’t really have a ton of prospects to trade). While things are better in D.C. I’m guessing the Nationals won’t be at the top of list for many players on the open market. Without a major influx of talent (and not just one big signing) the Nationals won’t escape the N.L. East cellar much less compete for the playoffs. Unless of course they make the tough decision and trade these three players (and possibly a few others).

Now it might seem backwards that trading two-thirds of the middle of your lineup and your All-Star closer will make you a better team and closer to contention, but that is exactly what I believe. And as for just trading either Dunn or Willingham or Capps because you have Storen waiting in the wings, the Nationals need to go all out, in for a penny in for a pound. All three players have their trade value at their highest point right now, and it is time for the Nationals to cash in on them. Here is a break down as to why each player should be traded and what the Nationals should look for in return.

Adam Dunn: Dunn is the most obvious player on this list. For one thing he is the most well-known player and likely the best bat available on the trade market. Another reason why Dunn is on the list is he is an impending free agent and while it is possible the Nats either sign him long term or get draft picks back in return, neither option is a guarantee. Dunn might get a better offer on the free agent market, and while that would assure getting two draft picks, you never know where the pick from the signing team will be. It could end up being a third round pick (or worse) which doesn’t have near the value of the original first round pick. The draft pick compensation is a nice consolation prize (especially if you are a contender) and helps to increase his value in a trade, but it is not a great option for making the Nats better long term.

For one thing you need to sign the draft picks which will cost money, and secondly they need to develop, which could take 2-5 years. And even then the player could be an absolute bust. While it is possible that the prospects acquired don’t pan out either, they will be closer to the majors and should have a much higher success rate.

Dunn’s value is at an all-time high, his bat is flat out crushing the ball in a time where power numbers are down across the league. While he still strikes out a ton, he has the power numbers and OBP to make up for it. On top of the value of his bat, Dunn’s glove is no longer the liability it once was. In Dunn’s first full season at first base he has shown he can adequately (compared to being god-awful in LF) handle the position, meaning he can be targeted by teams that need both a first baseman or a DH. Dunn’s impending free agency also actually helps make him attractive to certain teams, like the Angels who’s first baseman will be back next season, or the Rays or Rangers who might not be in a position to add long term payroll. Given the relative afford-ability ($ 5+ million remaining this year) and his impending draft pick compensation, contenders shouldn’t bulk at adding his bat for the stretch run.

Dunn might not bring back a prospect package that single-handedly change the Nationals fortunes, but it should bring back a good return. It will likely be a 3-4 player deal, with two players either major league ready or should be by next season and 1-2 players likely a couple years away. Two of the players should profile as good starting caliber players, with at least one having the upside to be great. While Dunn might not elicit a top 20 prospect like Smoak or Wallace (Lee and Holliday deals) he’s not far off. At least one prospect should be in that 25-40 range (or that level if they are already in the majors), while that might make it harder for a team like the White Sox or Angels to make a deal since they don’t have anyone on that level (Trout isn’t going anywhere), that just means the 2nd and 3rd piece of the deal need to be better.

Check back later for Part II when I look at the values for Willingham and Capps and give up some prospective trade scenarios