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NFL Team Needs: Picks 1-5

January 22, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Here are the top needs for each team in the NFL in reverse draft order:

1. Carolina Panthers:

-Defensive Tackle: The Panthers get very good play from their defensive ends, but receive no internal penetration from their tackles. Nick Fairley makes a lot of sense at the top of the draft.

-Guard: The Panthers have solid tackles when Jeff Otah is healthy, but have very little in the way of talent at guard. An upgrade could be in order in either the 3rd or the 4th round (maybe both).

-Tight End: Carolina has not had a pass catching tight end in years, but hopefully the new coaching staff will look to upgrade Jeff King. If the Panthers had their top pick in the 2nd round, they would reunite Clausen, with Kyle Rudolph his college tight end. Look for a potential trade, or a free agent signing to fill this need.

-Wide Receiver: The Panthers lack a top notch receiver to go along with Steve Smith, and it does hinder their offensive ability. While A.J. Green is in the mix for the top spot, the Panthers have invested a lot of draft picks of late into the position, so my guess is they will take a pass. I could see them adding a receiver via free agency.

-Quarterback: While I believe the Panthers should give Jimmy Clausen a fair look this season, they need to bring in a veteran backup in case he falters or gets injured. I think Clausen will be fine, if they can just improve around him enough.

-Corner back: Richard Marshall is a free agent this season, and he is coming off his worst year as a starter, so I don’t see the Panthers resigning him. That will mean Carolina needs to address the corner back position this offseason, likely through free agency.

-*Defensive End: The Panthers top sack leader, Charles Johnson, is primed to become a free agent. If the Panthers can’t work out an agreement, this need shoots up the list. As it stands now, this is only a need for depth purposes.

Denver Broncos:

-Corner back: Champ Bailey is a free agent this offseason, and even if they resign him, it is an area of weakness as the Broncos have nothing at the opposite corner. If Bailey does leave I think Denver will draft either Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with the 2nd pick in the draft. And if they do resign Bailey, they could still look to address their need early.

-Defensive End: While it isn’t 100% clear whether or not the Broncos will run a 3-4 (like they have been doing) or a 4-3 (which is Coach Fox’s preference), the Broncos need big time help at defensive end. If they go back to the 4-3 both Da’Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn will be targets. If they stay with the 3-4 Nick Fairley or Marcel Dareus could be the pick.

-Defensive Tackle: Again this is dependent on what system they run, but defensive tackle is a serious need for Denver. If they stay in the 3-4 a Nose Tackle in the 3rd or 4th round would make sense, and if they go 4-3 Fairley and Dareus are in play for the 2nd overall pick, this time for the inside.

-Safety: It really is hard to say what is a bigger priority, strong or free safety as they both need to be addressed. I typically lean to adding a free safety first, but Denver should look at both positions.

-Right Tackle: Ryan Harris is a free agent, and even if they do resign him he has been pretty injury prone these last few years. If he isn’t retained a starter is needed, if he is signed a good backup is a priority.

Buffalo Bills:

-Offensive Tackles: The Bills need to add a pair of  tackles this offseason after completely ignoring it last year. At this point it doesn’t matter who lines up under center, as they have no chance without a massive upgrade at the tackle spots. There isn’t any franchise tackles in this draft, so baring a trade down the Bills should consider the Free agent route. On the right side they could look at using their 2nd or 3rd round pick on bringing in an upgrade.

-Rush Linebacker: The Bills were unable to put any consistent pressure on the quarterback and it cost them dearly. If they want to run the 3-4 they need to bring in guys who can get to the quarterback. Robert Quinn should be a serious option for them at number 3 overall.

-Defensive End: The Bills need to get more push from their defensive line, so adding a talented 3-4 end like Dareus or Fairley makes a lot of sense at number 3. They could wait until the 2nd round, but it would be hard to pass up those top guys.

-Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid starter, but he’s likely not franchise material. While I don’t see the Bills grabbing a QB in round one, a 2nd or 3rd round pick could be invested into the position.

Cincinnati Bengals:

-Wide Receiver: Terrell Owens is on his way out, and it seems likely that Chad OchoCinco is about to follow him. The Bengals need to add a top flight receiver, so if A.J. Green is still on the board he won’t fall any farther in the draft.

-Defensive End: Antwan Odom has been a force at end, but over the last two seasons he his missed the majority of his games. Without him that pass rush struggles, despite the emergence of rookie Carlos Dunlap. The Bengals should consider Bowers at number 4 if Green is off the board.

-Strong Safety: The Bengals have excellent corners, but Roy Williams has been a major liability in coverage for Cincinnati and they have to find an improvement. If they can’t sign a free agent a 3rd round pick should do the trick.

-Running Back: Cedric Benson really struggled this past year, and while some of that blame is on the offensive line a lot falls on his shoulders as well. The Bengals need to address their running back need either in free agency or the draft, but it is pretty clear they will have to look outside the organization to do so.

-Quarterback: Carson Palmer had a resurgence at the end of last season, but before that he looked like he was completely done. He might have a year or two left in the tank, so the Bengals need to start looking for a replacement.

Arizona Cardinals:

-Rush Linebacker: The Cardinals had one of the most ineffective pass rushes last season and it left their secondary out high and dry. Arizona needs to look long and hard at Quinn and  Von Miller with their 5th pick if they want to improve.

-Offensive Tackle: The Cards offensive line needs a complete overhaul and that should start with the tackle position. There aren’t any great options for the top 5 in the draft, so I’m guessing they look to free agency to fill this need. For the right side a mid-round pick could suffice (and probably even start this year).

-Guard: Arizona needs to keep rebuilding their line if they want to have an effective offense again, and adding a guard in the mid-rounds (or through free agency) is a smart choice.

-Corner back: Arizona’s corners got beat quite a bit last season, that it wouldn’t be shocking to see them target a top corner at number 5. Overall I think they could just look at adding better depth and focus on improving their pass rush which should, help their corner back play.

-Quarterback: There is little doubt that Arizona needs to add a quarterback, but I think it is more for a short term fix than a long term issue (don’t right John Skelton off just yet). Look for Arizona to add a veteran as they look to get at least average production from their signal caller.

Picks for the Sunday:

November 14, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Bengals +7.5 @ Colts: I love Indy with this pick. I know the Bengals battled back against the Steelers and made it close, but I’m not buying it two weeks in a row. Cincinnati isn’t a good team this year and I don’t see them going into Indianapolis and matching Peyton TD for TD. I think the Colts win easily by double digits 31-20.

Vikings -1 @ Bears: Chicago is at home, and the Vikings still are a splintered team but I’ll take Minnesota in this game with a pretty high confidence. The Bears simply can’t protect Jay Cutler, and the Vikings still get after the quarterback with the best of them. On offense Favre is coming off his best game, and he has been known to carry teams on his back in the past. I look for it to be close but Minnesota to win and cover 21-17.

Lions -1 @ Bills: A lot of people seem to be pegging this as Buffalo’s first win, and I get the argument. The Bills are at home, have shown improvement and Lions quarterback Matt Stafford is out. Now if Drew Stanton was playing I’d say they have a case, but I believe Shaun Hill will lead the Lions to their 3rd win. That Buffalo offensive line is one of the worst in the league and we all saw what the Lions did to the Washington Redskins unit. I think the Lions will slow down Fitzpatrick and force a couple of costly turnovers. The Lions win this 27-24.

Jets-3 @ Browns: Boy this is a tough one, on paper it shouldn’t be a contest and the Jets should win by 13 not 3, but they have been struggling recently. And while the Jets have been struggling the Browns led by rookie quarterback Colt McCoy are looking good. Back-to-back wins against the Saints and New England, have people beginning to take notice of the Browns. Normally I’d say this is where Cleveland’s glass slipper falls off, but I’m not ready to count them out just yet. Jets win but don’t cover as they squeak out a 24-23 victory.

Titans +1 @ Dolphins: It’s unclear if or how much Vince Young will play so I understand why the Dolphins are favored at home, but remember they too are going with a different guy behind center. Chad Pennington is replacing ineffective starter Chad Henne, so it will be interesting to see how Chad Part II does. Even if Young doesn’t play I like Tennessee in this game, they have been struggling of late, but they have a top notch defense, Chris Johnson and oh yeah just acquired Randy Moss. He might not have a huge impact, but i’d expect Moss to open up some things for CJ. Titans win 28-20.

Panthers +7 @ Buccaneers: Although I still think Tampa is a bit overrated I don’t think they will have much trouble in today’s game. Carolina isn’t a good team to begin with, and injuries are really beginning to take their toll. I really think Tampa runs away with this game early and I see a 31-13 final.

Texans +1 @ Jaguars: I understand the Jags are at home and have been playing better football, but I just don’t see it. The Texans have struggled some, and their defense can’t really stop anyone, but Schaub/ Foster/Johnson are nearly unstoppable. I think the Texans secondary will keep Jacksonville in it but I see a pretty high scoring game, 35-27 in favor of the Texans.

Why the Redskins Not Putting In A Claim on Merriman Is More Puzzling Than Moss

November 4, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Now first to be clear, unlike with Randy Moss if the Redskins put in a claim on Shawne Merriman they would not have gotten him since the Bills (who had the top preference) put in a claim for him as well. But what is troubling is the fact that they didn’t even try. Had the Bills passed the Redskins would have gotten him considering the only other teams who put in claims were the Buccaneers and the Dolphins. I know most fans are more upset about not acquiring Moss, especially since they would have had him since no one in front of them claimed him, but the bigger question is why didn’t this team take a shot at Shawne Merriman? *Also just to make clear it wasn’t a one or the other type of deal. Had the Skins put in claims for both and the Bills passed, Merriman and Moss would be in Burgundy and Gold.

Now I know Merriman has his share of public relations issues, performance enhancing drug test a couple of years ago, the dismissed assault case involving reality star Tila Tequila, and the controversy surrounding his celebrations, but those all seem to be behind him. And although he has not been as dominate since the knee injury that wiped out his 2008 season, he could still be a very valuable pass rusher going forward. And Although the knee injury still lingers, Merriman is maybe a safer bet than Moss, who has shown himself to be a disruptive force.

I realize that most fans want to improve the receiving corps, but the Redskins need to add a pass rusher to compliment Orakpo as well. The best teams in the league (regardless of system) have two great edge rushers. Well right now the Redskins are short one. On paper they have Andre Carter, but the OLB conversion really set him back. Had he been allowed to rush with his hand down it might have been a different year, but right now he can’t be relied on to provide pressure even in nickel situations. Although you have to love Lorenzo Alexander, he is more of a shoot the gap pass rusher and not a good matchup against tackles, who can handle his bull rush. Merriman on the other hand was the best pass rusher in the league before his injury, and still very well could regain that title going forward. I know it is far from a sure thing, but I’d expect a 2nd half surge from Merriman, given the fact that he is playing for a contract and probably just needed a change of scenery.

On top of his potential to regain his ability as a pass rusher, Merriman made a lot of sense for the Redskins for a number of other reasons. He is from Washington D.C. and played his college ball at the University of Maryland, giving him plenty of local ties and a nice story. Also, he is just 26 years old, making him more likely to be able to regain his pass rushing skills since he is still in the ‘prime’ of his career.

For me both players could have helped the Redskins, but Merriman, unlike Moss, wasn’t going to hurt them by being a significant distraction. I hope in the offseason the Redskins might try to revisit Merriman (who will be a free agent this offseason) since they still need to fill that OLB hole, but until then I’m very curious as to why they didn’t give him a shot.

Thoughts After The First Month Of the NFL Season

October 7, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer John Manuel:

Now that the majority of NFL teams have played a quarter of the season we can start to get a grasp on which teams are contenders and which are pretenders. I wanted to throw out a few thoughts on what I have seen and what I feel may be coming up down the road. As with every season, it hasn’t been boring. Great games and compelling storylines have already taken place in the first month.

Let me first start with the team which comes into week five possibly playing the best. The New York Jets. Three weeks ago they looked like a fiasco, all the talk was about Rex Ryan’s mouth, Mark Sanchezs’ Trent Edwards style checkdowns and the lingering effects of doing Hard Knocks. Three straight wins have changed that. LT is playing like five years ago, Darelle Revis, Santonio Holmes, and Calvin Pace are due back this week and Sanchez hasn’t turned the ball over. Side note, my friends and I get a good laugh anytime Holmes is referred to SanAntonio Holmes. It happened this week by Dan Fouts again. I am far from sold on the Jets mainly because what I saw week one versus the Ravens. When it comes playoff time the Jets will be seeing tough defenses like the Ravens again or the Steelers or the Bills…just joking Bills fans. I have a feeling we could be seeing a lot more stagnant Jets offense like week one. Can the defense and the running game carry them like last playoffs, maybe?

If were talking checkdown quarterbacks, Kevin Kolb was the king of week 4. Take some chances bro. Its tough to discuss the Eagles without being biased, being a Redskins fan. Sometimes I worry that quarterbacks can change with one game. I think that this could be the case with Kolb. Bad memories of being chased down by Clay Matthews week one could have changed his whole demeanor in the pocket. As a Skins fan, I feel I have seen this twice. Patrick Ramsey had a promising start with Steve Spurrier and then one Sunday night he got destroyed in Miami. His night finished after being bulldogged Barry Windham style to the ground by Jason Taylor. He was never the same in the pocket after that. I also think Jason Campbell got weak in the pocket after showing lots of poise early on.  His offensive line destroyed his head. The NFC East is anyone’s division. Each week a new team steps up and another looks done. I wouldn’t count any team out.

Is there anyone feeling more miserable than Larry Fitzgerald in the NFL? Well, maybe Nate Clements. Fitzgerald is in an awful situation on a team that is actually 2-2. Fitzgerald has been a class act which makes it difficult to watch his frustration at the Cardinals QB situation. “The Situation” would call Derek Anderson a Grenade for the way he played before being benched last week in San Diego. For Fitz’s sake maybe Max Hall brings some life to the Cardinals passing game but then again he is being flanked by no names currently so coverage can key on him all game.

On a side note, I see that another Real World/ Road Rules challenge starts this week on MTV and of course it looks more dangerous than ever . They always try to infer that someone may die in one of the challenges. My guess is that a newcomer gets a concussion. Speaking of concussions, thanks Jay Cutler. Negative five points for my fantasy team this week. While I am at it…Shout outs to Mike Martz and the Chicago Bears o-line as well. Did they get an official sack total for the Giants? 10, 14, 19? Jay Cutler is going to look like Ricky Hatton after the Pacman fight by week seven. And if you were wondering I do have Big Ben on my fantasy team to cover, but I doubt you care. I scored 43 points this week, I don’t even care anymore.

Its way to early to tell but I like the Ravens alot as this season goes on. I live in Baltimore so I hear alot about them. I have a feeling the offense is going to only get better and that Ed Reed will bring his big play ability to an already good defense. They have depth at almost all positions and the biggest worry, the defensive backs have been good. Lardarius Webb being back from the ACL is a big factor. I am interested to see where Ray Lewis ends up on the NFL films top 100 players of all time list. If you haven’t watch, its very good and worth it. Although its at the same time as “The Office.” Just DVR it or watch one of the 50 times its replayed. As for the NFC, the top teams look to be Green Bay, Atlanta and New Orleans but all squeaked by with home wins this past week against struggling teams. The NFC is up for grabs with many teams who can make a run.

We have only seen four weeks so a lot can happen over the next thirteen. The returns of Big Ben, Brian Cushing (if he hasn’t over-worked out again), Sidney Rice and Kurt Warner (my bad Cards fans) will make their teams stronger. The NFL is tough to predict this early like last year when the Colts and Saints were undefeated at this point. OK, bad example. Undefeated to the Super Bowl? Congrats Kansas City, its a short flight to Dallas in February.

Morning Links:

September 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Twins Morneau Hopes To Return This Season: While the Twins are still in first place with 20 games to go in their brand new park, it has been a rough year for their slugger Justin Morneau. He has missed the past two months due to concussion symptoms, after getting off to a torrid start this season. While the Twins have survived the loss, they would likely be in a few more games up on the White Sox had Morneau not missed so much time. It appears that Morneau may be returning to Target Field in the coming weeks, just in time to fend off a late push by the White Sox and for the start of the Playoffs. If the Twins want to go far this postseason they will need Morneau, back healthy in the middle of their lineup.

Bills Go With Spiller Atop Their Depth Chart: Now this move was pretty much expected since the Bills passed on much needed quarterbacks and offensive linemen to draft Spiller 9th overall in April’s draft, but was affirmed yesterday. Buffalo pretty much had to show Spiller as their number 1 tailback, after what they passed on to get him. Now there is no doubt that Spiller is a weapon, but it is a bit surprising that he is listed as their starter considering what Fred Jackson did last season. Jackson in split time ran for over 1,000 yards and added an additional 370 receiving yards, as well as over 1,100 return yards. Now Spiller will take some of those roles, but the Bills shouldn’t forget about Jackson. He proved himself to be a good runner last year, and he is worthy of 15-20 carries a game as well. In fairness to Spiller and the coaching staff, Jackson was banged up this preseason and isn’t 100% yet, but it will be interesting to see how they use him when he is.

Bulldogs Green to Miss Three More Games: Georgia’s top flight receiver A.J. Green missed last Saturday’s game due to NCAA rule violations, now the Bulldogs will be without him for another 3 weeks. The ban is a result of Green selling his bowl jersey to an ‘agent’ for $1,000. Green was also under further investigation for additional improper contact with agents, but that apparently is behind him. The loss of Green didn’t really affect Georgia week 1 against Louisiana-Lafayette, but could have major implications the rest of the way. Over the next three weeks Georgia faces (24) South Carolina, (14) Arkansas, and Mississippi State (two of which are on the road). Georgia could easily have 2 losses by the time Green comes back and that is before they face the toughest part of their schedule.

The suspension could also affect Green individually as well since his draft status could take a significant hit. While Green will play the majority of the year, and the bowl game (if Georgia qualifies) he is missing a good chunk of time against quality opponents. While he is projected to be the top receiver off the board and a potential top 5 pick by most draft pundits (if he declares early), he could lose ground to Julio Jones, Micheal Floyd and Jonathan Baldwin with this missed time. All three offer similar package’s to Green and have actually put up better numbers. Green needed a huge year to maintain that top of the draft status, and he could very well slide into the middle or even late into the first round. Some might say that it won’t affect him that much, but Dez Bryant this past season was suspended by the NCAA and fell to the end of the 1st round. And Bryant really didn’t have any competition at receiver. When Green comes back he has to be firing on all cylinders if he is to regain his spot atop the wide receivers draft board.

AFC East Draft Grades

April 26, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

AFC East:

Buffalo Bills:

I think the Bills did a lot of good things to help their defense. Both their 2nd round pick Torell Troup (NT) and 3rd round pick Alex Carrington (DE) should immeadiately help their front 3 as they transition to a 3-4 defense. The Bills added a couple of pass rushers in 6 round, and both Arthur Moats and Danny Batten have a chance to be effective starters. Troup might have been a bit of an overdraft, but nose tackle was a significant need. The real problem with the Bills draft is what they did on offense, or what they didn’t do. With the 9th overall pick the Bills selected C.J. Spiller, the dynamic running, receiving, returning back out of Clemson. Spiller does everything, except the two things the Bills need the most, throwing the ball and blocking for those who do. And after Fred Jackson’s performance last season, Spiller doesn’t figure to get a ton of carries/catches. The 9th overall selection was a lot to spend on a third down back/return man. While the Bills added O-linemen Ed Wang and Kyle Calloway later, and got decent value where they selected them, that isn’t enough to address one of the worst offensive lines in football. Grabbing QB Levi Brown late gives you a little upside, but the Bills consistently passed on high rated quarterback prospects, guys who do actually project to be starters. For me the Bills didn’t fill needs or get enough high upside players. Grade D+

Miami Dolphins:

The Dolphins didn’t have a sexy draft, with the exception of the trade for Brandon Marshall, who does very much weigh into this grade (well 50-60% of Marshall, since they gave up a pick next year). With Marshall in the fold, Miami was able to trade back in the 1st round, add some more picks, and still get the guy they wanted DE Jared Odrick. Odrick is a perfect fit for the 3-4 end position and should generate a decent pass rush from that slot. Miami then grabbed a couple of solid linebackers, in 2nd rounder OLB Koa Misi and 4th rounder A.J. Edds, both have starting upside and should help immediately on special teams. Misi, especially should develop into an excellent starter and pass rusher. In between the two LB’s the Dolphins selected their lone offensive player (not counting Marshall) in guard John Jerry. Jerry is a very solid prospect, who helps give the Dolphins one of the deepest offensive lines in the league. There is a ton of potential with this unit’s backups, which will go a long way in helping the offense move the ball. Miami did pick up Reshad Jones in the 5th round. He is a bit raw as a safety, but has the talent and athleticism to develop into a starter at either safety spot. Grade B+

New England Patriots:

The Patriots went up and down this draft at will, which of course surprised no one since they do it every year. What’s even better is they even were able to start setting the table for next season, by trading a 3rd round pick for a 2nd rounder next season. Even with giving up a 3rd rounder, the Patriots still ended up with 12 draft picks including 5 in the top 3 rounds. The Patriots bolstered their defense early by adding CB Devin McCourty in the 1st round, OLB Jermaine Cunningham and ILB Brandon Spikes in the 2nd round. All three players should find an immediate home in New England, and while none might be a full-time starter in year one, they will all contribute. On offense the Patriots did a great job finding weapons for Tom Brady, by adding a pair of pass catching tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) and a very promising receiver (Taylor Price). Late in the draft New England picked depth picks across the offensive and defensive lines, in addition to a backup quarterback Zac Robinson. Overall this was a very solid and deep draft for the Patriots, and the only complaint might be that they didn’t address the offensive or defensive lines earlier, since they are razor thin at both positions. Grade B+

New York Jets:

The Jets only ended up with 4 picks but they made the most out of them. It is even more impressive considering they were able to trade for Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes using draft picks, giving Mark Sanchez all the weapons he needs to be successful. CB Kyle Wilson was an absolute steal at the bottom of the first round, and gives New York the best corners in the league. With an improved pass rush, the Jets defense should go from dominate to unstoppable. Adding Vlad Ducasse and Joe McKnight, both should be solid players and Ducasse should be a full time starter from day one. The only thing I don’t like about the Jets draft is that Ducasse and McKnight both only replace holes that the Jets created over the weekend, and aren’t a huge upgrade. While they are younger and cheaper than the players they are replacing, I’m not sure if they will be better this next season, which is troubling since the Jets are built to win the Super Bowl. I was shocked with how little they got in return for Leon Washington, one of the better 3rd down backs in the league. Overall I liked the Jets draft and I think they got solid value, but I don’t love the corresponding moves New York made. Grade B

Check back throughout the day as the rest of the divisions are posted!

Tale of Two Quarterbacks

April 15, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Much of the debate this off season leading up to the draft has involved where the top two quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen should fall, and whether it is worth drafting them ahead of other more talented players. The answer to the second question is dependent on each team, for a team like the Redskins who have one of the leagues worst offensive lines and skill player sets, it doesn’t make sense to add a quarterback to a team that can’t support one. For a team like the Rams who at least has a solid-good offensive line and a top notch running back, it makes a bit more sense to add a young quarterback. Now as to the answer to the first question as to where these quarterbacks should fall, I think it will take a bit more insight.

The hardest thing about slotting quarterbacks is figuring out who really needs a young signal caller. Going back to our earlier example of the Rams and the Redskins, the Rams are a no brainer, considering Keith Null started the last 4 games of the season for them last year. The Redskins on the other hand didn’t make nearly as much sense (though plenty of people in Washington thought so). Sure the Redskins would love to draft the next Manning or Rivers, but there is absolutely no guarantee that either Bradford or Clausen will become that. What there is a guarantee of is that neither quarterback would perform better than Jason Campbell, who put up good numbers last year in a bad offense. Maybe three years down the line they could be better quarterbacks, but for the hear and now they didn’t represent an upgrade and the Redskins had bigger needs along the offensive line to fill. Which is exactly why they traded for Donovan McNabb instead of drafting an unproven rookie.

So in looking at need you can cross the Lions and Buccaneers off the list, because they spent first round picks last season on quarterbacks. And you can probably cross the Chiefs and Seahawks off the list because they have ‘filled’ their need as well (I think it is pretty debatable that their quarterback positions are set, but given the value they traded away I don’t see either team using a first round pick on a QB). So that leaves the Browns, Raiders, Bills and Jaguars as top 10 teams that could have a need at quarterback. The Jags are on the fringe because Pro Bowler (how he ended up in the Pro Bowl is beyond me) David Garrard is there and is an average quarterback. Jacksonville could use a dynamic signal caller, but will probably look to the defensive side of the ball in the 1st round. The Browns went out and acquired two placeholders at quarterback, and while they need a long term answer my guess is they will target Colt McCoy in Round 2. The Raiders are a possibility, but it is almost impossible to predict what they will do. Bills seem like the most likely target for a quarterback. They do have serious offensive line issues, so they aren’t the best fit for a young guy. At the same time though, fortunes have been so bad in Buffalo and the offense so anemic, that a lack of a quarterback has been what is holding them back.

While at this point it is a foregone conclusion that Sam Bradford will be drafted first by the Rams, leaving Jimmy Clausen as the quarterback wondering where his next home will be, I think the Rams were a bit too hasty in their decision. For me, I think Clausen is the better option than Bradford. To be honest I love and hate both quarterback prospects. I love them because I see their skills and potential, but I hate them as early first round picks because I think there are too many questions about them still unanswered. Again, I get why the Rams are drafting a quarterback number 1, but I don’t understand the who and I have doubts that they will find that next great signal caller.

Bradford and Clausen might be major upgrades over the Keith Null’s and Kyle Boller’s of the league, but neither one strikes me as a top-notch quarterback. Particularly if they are going to start from day one, which more often then not stunts a quarterbacks growth. For me, I have more faith in Clausen because he came out of a pro style system, and has much better experience dropping back and reading defenses from behind center. I also saw a lot of development in him over the years, and he no longer seems like the entitled 18 year-old freshmen he was when he started with the Irish. His arm strength isn’t fantastic, but I do believe it’s good enough almost nearly equal to Bradford’s.

As for Bradford, while he looked healthy in his Pro Day, and I’m sure his individual workouts, you have no true litmus test to see if his arm is truly 100%. You don’t know how it feels the next day after throwing, you don’t have a baseline to compare the week-in-week-out. And you have no idea how his arm will hold up after it gets hit a few times. On top of all of that concern about his health, I think not seeing him this past year behind a weaker Sooner team should have some cause for concern. I was very interested to see if he could rise to the challenge with so many new offensive starters. Remember Jevan Snead gets blasted for putting up worse numbers despite losing key offensive linemen and weapons. It is quite possible that Bradford might not have handled the change well either. I’m not saying it should be a knock on Bradford, just that I believe there were legitimate questions going into last season, that one year later remain unanswered. For me, all those old questions are there, about the system, adjusting to lower quality personnel, and new ones have risen about his health. I can’t put Bradford ahead of Clausen. The Rams will go in a different direction, but I would be a little worried if I were a Rams fan if it’s the right direction.

Cowher Rejects Bills Head Coaching Gig: Dreams Can Come True?

November 24, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

As a Redskins fan I got a little something else to be thankful for on Thursday, when I saw that Bill Cowher ruled out interviewing for the Buffalo Bills coaching vacancy at this time. Now its not a huge surprise, considering Buffalo isn’t considered one of the “top jobs” out there (though I don’t know if coaching any team with 6 or less wins is a “top” job). But as a Redskin fan desperate for a winning coach and attitude, Bill Cowher, of all the coaches on the market, brings both of those qualities to the table. Now I know that it’s probably a pipe dream, but I want Cowher as the next Redskin coach over all the other candidates out there. I know you will here names like Shanahan, Holmgren, Dungy, and Gruden. I think that one or more of them may better than Cowher, but for me, Cowher tops the list.

Cowher did more with less than any coach on this list, and probably any coach in the last 25 years. Sure he only went to 2 Super Bowls and won only one of them, but he had only three losing seasons in his 15 year career (or two less than Belichick in his 15 year career). On top of that, he made the playoffs 10 of those 15 seasons. Now its true that Holmgren, Shanahan, and Dungy all have similar if not slightly better resumes, but their is one key difference, and that is who was lining up behind center for these coaches. When you have Favre, Elway, and Manning it can help make life quite a bit easier for you. Cowher on the other hand went to the playoffs with Neil O’Donnell, Mike Tomczak, Kordell Stewart, Tommy Maddox, and Ben Rothelisberger (in his rookie and sophomore seasons). I don’t see Canton making any space for any of these guys (except potentially Rothelisberger), yet they all won under Cowher.

What’s even more interesting is that you pick any position and you will see the same sort of turnover in stars. I know that the argument might be made, that its unfair to base it on quarterbacks because the Steelers live and die by the ground game. Yes, the Steelers had Jerome Bettis, and a place in the Hall of Fame is reserved for the “Bus”. But the Steelers also went to the playoffs on the legs of Barry Foster, Leroy Thompson, Bam Morris, Erric Pegram, and Willie Parker. If you look at any position — O-line, linebackers, corner backs, wide receivers, etc. you will see an extremely high turnover rate. Why? Because the Steelers year in, year out had the best team in the league and everyone wanted their free agents. And since the Steelers almost never resigned their own players (with a few exceptions) they always had to find new players to fit their system.

To me, that is the most impressive thing about Cowher. He could take any player and make him a Pro Bowl caliber guy. He got the most out of his team than any other coach. I think if you match Cowher’s fire, passion, and natural coaching ability (also his talent evaluation is desperately needed in DC) with Daniel Snyder’s money, you will have the perfect winning combination. I don’t care that he’s not an “offensive guy” or that he has struggled in the Championship games. He is the best coach on the market and should be coach in Washington next season. Unfortunately, I know I will have to wake up from this dream of Cowher holding up a Lombardi Trophy dressed in burgundy and gold, but it is nice while it lasts.

Sports Roundup

November 18, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

NFL:

Coaching Change in Buffalo:

Buffalo Bills head coach former head coach Dick Jauron is the first coach to get the ax, getting fired on Tuesday. This move had been rumored for weeks, so it doesn’t come as a huge surprise. But it is interesting when you see that six teams have records worse than Bills 3-6, and three other teams are tied for the same record. Buffalo doesn’t usually have the persona of a team who makes bold moves during the season, but maybe this is a sign of things to come in Buffalo. What I do find interesting is, if the Bills had upset the Patriots in Week 1, would Jauron have been fired? And the only answer I think is fair is, that beating New England would have saved his job now. But this Bills team is so bad that Jauron would have to be gone at the end of the season.

Larry Johnson Finds a Home:

The Cincinnati Bengals signed troubled running back Larry Johnson. Now I know the first reaction of many is “big surprise”, considering the issues surrounding many current and former Bengals. Cincinnati is a team that doesn’t alway put character first, and over the years has had its share of locker room issues. And one could arise with Johnson if he isn’t content on being the back-up running back. As long at the Bengals keep winning, I feel as though the situation won’t cause a problem. But if they lose and Benson wasn’t producing, how long will it be before Johnson puts his foot in his mouth again? While I think there is a serious reservation with signing Johnson, the Bengals had to add another running back with experience. Benson is leading the league in carries, and his top back-up is a rookie 6th round pick (Bernard Scott). Cincinnati will need to start limiting Benson’s load late in games to keep his legs fresh for a deep playoff run. Only time will tell if the good will outweigh the bad, with the signing of Johnson.

NCAAB:

Top 25 Surviving Early Upset Bids:

Just one day after freshman point guard John Wall saved No. 5 Kentucky with a last second shot, three other top 25 teams were taken down to the wire. No. 1 Kansas held their breath as Memphis’ Elliot Williams 3-pointer at the buzzer hit off the rim, giving Kansas the 57-55 win, and keeping them atop the polls. Their closest competition also faced a scare and No. 2 Michigan State was taken down to the wire by the unranked Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Bulldogs actually had a five point lead at half, and were still up by four with 4:48 on the clock, but could not close out Michigan State on the road. The Spartans controlled the last 5 minutes of the game, and Gonzaga’s youth and inexperience came to light with some bad shots and decisions down the stretch. Top 5 teams weren’t the only ones facing upset bids, as No. 20 Georgetown were able to outlast the Temple Owls during their home opener (despite their best efforts to give them the game). The Hoyas were struggling to find their rhythm all game, and led the Owls just 19-13 at halftime. Temple stormed back in the second half, but Georgetown took the lead for good with Greg Monroe’s basket with six seconds remaining.

Super Bowl Contenders Taken To The Wire

September 15, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Going into last night Monday Night Football seemed like it was going to be a snoozer, even with two games. Both match ups featured a Super Bowl contender (New England and San Diego), versus a lowly divisional opponent (Buffalo and Oakland). No one gave the Bills or Raiders any chance of pulling an upset, not the sports polls, not Vegas, and certainly not me. In fact Vegas even predicated that the Patriots and Chargers would each win their games by double digits. I guess no one told the Bills and Raiders they didn’t have a chance, because both the Pats and the Chargers both had to have 4th quarter comebacks in the last two minutes to overcome their divisional foes.

For 55 minutes last night Tom Brady looked like the quarterback who couldn’t secure a starting job at Michigan and lasted until the 6th round of the 2000 Draft. Brady’s throws were high and erratic, he couldn’t move around in the pocket, and he threw a costly interception that was returned for a touchdown by DE Aaron Schobel. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Brady that led the Patriots to 4 Super Bowl’s this decade returned for the last five minutes of the game. Brady connected with TE Ben Watson for a pair of touchdowns in the final two minutes to overcome the Bills 25-24. Brady may have never gotten the opportunity for the second trip into the endzone if Bills return man Leodis McKelvin hadn’t fumbled the kick-off (or if he had just kneeled down in the endzone for the touchback) with two minutes to go. The fumble gave the Patriots the ball on the Bills 30 with two minutes to go and the sure victory slipped away for good.

The late game was even more surprising last night as the Raiders not only hung with the Chargers, but led most of the way. The Raiders who have the worst record of any franchise since 2003 (including the the Lions) took San Diego to the limit last night. Every time the Chargers scored to tie the game or take a lead, the Raiders battled back and retook the lead. After Rivers drove down and threw a touchdown pass with 7 minutes to go it looked like the Chargers might hang on to win 17-13. The Chargers’ defense knocked QB JaMarcus Russell out of the game, and it looked like hope was lost. Things looked even bleaker when Russell returned a few plays later. The Raiders were facing a 4th and 15 from their own 43, with 2:40 remaining. The safe play would have been to punt it and hope that you can stop the Chargers from getting a first down. The smart play would have been to try for the first down, or even set up a screen pass to Darren McFadden. The Raiders elected for the bold play, and Russell executed a perfect 57 yard touchdown strike to rookie WR Louis Murphy. Now if only the game had ended there, the Russell and the Raiders would be the most talked about team all week. Unfortunately Phillip Rivers got his hands on the ball again and he drove the Chargers 90 yards for the game winning touchdown by Darren Sproles.

In the end the Patriots and Chargers came away with a win, and now sit atop their respective divisions like everyone expected. Although their record remains untarnished, their reputation is not. No one who watched last night’s games believed that these two teams are the teams to beat in the AFC. If the Patriots and Chargers want to contend for the Super Bowl, they will need to start playing like it, as their luck won’t last forever.