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Nationals Open Up Their Checkbook:

August 15, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

According to Baseball America, the Washington Nationals inked two 7 figure deals this morning with their 2nd (LHP Sammy Solis) and 4th round picks (RHP A.J. Cole). The signings show that they aren’t just pegging all of their hopes on 1st round pick Bryce Harper (who is still expected to sign by tomorrow night’s deadline). Both Solis and Cole project to be top 3 starters and are desperately needed arms for the Nats future rotation.

While Solis is the Nats 2nd round pick, his bonus ($1 million) is reportedly half of what Cole got as the 4th round pick. Solis did receive over $300K what the typical ‘slot price’ of his selection would receive. Giving him quite the nice pay day. Solis is a college lefty and is much closer to the majors. If everything goes well he could be ready for the show by early 2012 (if not sooner). Solis profiles as a number 3 starter and would look quite good in the Nationals rotation behind Strasburg and Zimmermann. Now that is the best case scenario, and what the Nats are hoping for after shelling out $1 million, but at the very least he should be a solid 5th starter.

A.J. Cole is the real prize here even if it is all potential. He is a tall, projectable RHP who already touches the high 90′s. In addition to his power fastball, Cole has shown a plus curve ball and a solid potential changeup. If all three pitches continue to develop, Cole could very well end up as a 1 or a 2 (much more likely his ceiling). Cole is well worth the investment of $2 million and was considered by some to be the 2nd or 3rd best High School pitcher in the draft. His price tag and lack of refinement pushed him down in the draft, but he is well worth a 4th round pick and the early 1st round money the Nats gave up to ink him. While he might not be a truly finished product, Cole has a bright future.

The Nationals did a great job signing these two young pitchers. By grabbing higher upside guys with bigger price tags, the Nats turned their 4th round pick into a Top 15 pick value, and their 2nd round pick (51st overall) into the value of the low 30′s. Now if the the Nationals can add 12th round pick Robbie Ray, a LHP who is committed to Arkansas in addition to Bryce Harper, Washington could have the best draft class in baseball, and a farm system that can begin to produce All-Star caliber talent.

MLB Draft: Should Harper Catch

June 2, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Lately much has been made about recent comments by Scott Boras, Bryce Harper’s agent, that his client shouldn’t catch in the majors. While much has been made about Boras’ comments, he might not be too far off the mark. Yes, Harper is by far the best catching prospect in this draft and could become an elite defensive catcher, with 40 HR power, which would make him a rare commodity. But there are some serious risks involved with keeping Harper behind the plate.

The first of which is the injury concern. Catching takes a lot out of a player and puts him at a serious risk for back and knee injuries. Not to mention the fact that a 95 mph ball is being hurled at you and a bat is being swung just a few feet away. There are plenty of freak injuries that happen to catchers that other positions don’t face. So no matter how you try to protect them, catchers will be injured more on average than other positions.

The next concern for catchers is the consistency of their bat. There are just a few catchers whom you would consider as good hitters in this league, and backup catchers are always offensive liabilities. Even the best offensive catchers (with the exception of Mauer) don’t put up that great of offensive numbers, they are just better by comparison. Now part of that is some of the better hitters are moved to new positions a la Harper, but the other part of that is the daily grind of catching makes it harder to be consistent offensively.

The last universal concern with keeping Harper at the catching spot is that it would slow down his progress to the majors. Harper’s bat and offensive game is nearly ready for the big leagues, and he could legitimately be up in 2 years (maybe even sooner if he doesn’t holdout until August 15th). Defensively Harper will need another year or two to learn the nuances of calling a game at the major league level. In addition, he will need to work on his receiving, throwing skills, and blocking major league quality breaking balls. For the Nationals, they will have to think long and hard about what path has more value. Because if Harper could be ready 2 years from now, and say be able to play RF, Washington would have a nice little lineup around him with Ryan Zimmerman, Nyjer Morgan, Ian Desmond, and potentially Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham as well. If Harper can step in and produce, that could be a playoff caliber lineup. If the team waits for him as a catcher, than players like Dunn and Willingham may no longer be relied upon, and there is a lot more unknown involved with the team.

While all of those are valid reasons to consider a position change, the Nationals have an even better one; they play in the National League and can’t DH Harper to keep his bat in the lineup. Even the best catchers only catch around 130 games a year and that is if they are relatively healthy. That means they are likely to get between 550-570 plate appearances (and some of those are pinch hitting opportunities), now AL catchers will DH some of their off days and get additional PA’s, but NL catchers don’t have that luxury. If Harper is a middle of the order hitter that everyone is projecting him to be, and were to play every day he would get anywhere between 675-715 plate appearances. While the 125+ PA’s might not seem like a big deal, that is roughly a month worth of PA’s and games that he could impact. Why would you willingly ‘bench’ one of your star hitters for that many chances at the plate.

If Harper shows that aptitude (in addition to the athleticism) we know he already has than why not have him in the lineup every day at one of the corner outfield spots. As great as a defensive catcher that Harper has the potential to be, I don’t know if it is worth the wait, injury risk, and loss of PA’s to keep him behind the plate. The Nationals also have further reason to make the move, since they already have one of the better hitting catchers in the minor leagues in Derek Norris. Norris is just 21 and in High A ball, but should be ready (if his defense progresses) in 2 years. While Harper is better across the board, Norris is a very good catching prospect and should allow the Nats to move Harper off the position. While Norris could move, his bat wouldn’t translate nearly as well in the outfield (nor does he have as much athletic ability).