AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox

2. New York Yankees

3. Tampa Bay Rays

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Toronto Blue Jays

Once again the AL East is the best division in baseball. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays all have enough talent to make a World Series run. The Rays may be lacking some major league talent, but make up the ground with their deep farm system. If a few of their young guys really develop this year and/or they trade some of that talent for proven Major Leaguers, they could easily sit atop this division come fall. I like Boston over New York, though I suspect both will make the playoffs. The Red Sox might not have the bats the Yankees do, but are built around excellent pitching and defense. Also their depth at the major and minor league level is superior to New York’s. The Yankees went fairly unscathed last year on the injury front, and I don’t know if they can count on being so lucky again. One or two key injuries will likely knock them out of first place, any others could allow another wild card team or even the Rays pass them by.

AL Central:

1. Minnesota Twins

2. Detroit Tigers

3. Chicago White Sox

4. Cleveland Indians

5. Kansas City Royals

The Twins spent time and resources shoring up their middle infield and pitching rotation, but received a body blow to their playoff hopes when All-star closer Joe Nathan was lost with an injury. While the door opened somewhat for Detroit and Chicago to jump ahead of Minnesota, I still like the Twins chances. They have a great every day lineup from top to bottom and a strong farm system. They do lack a true ‘ace’ pitcher and could be in the market for one at the trade deadline, but Minnesota will still be the team to beat in the Central. The Indians and Royals have done nice jobs of rebuilding, but still lack the Major League ready talent to compete.

AL West:

1. Texas Rangers

2. Seattle Mariners

3. Los Angeles Angels

4. Oakland Athletics

I think the Rangers will be a surprise team this year. They have a very good lineup top to bottom, and that doesn’t include their top minor league prospect Justin Smoak who should be up by mid-year. Their starting pitching isn’t where it needs to be, but they have a few young arms that should join the rotation before years end. They seem poised for a breakout year and given the state of the rest of the teams in the division, this is their year. Seattle and Los Angeles won’t just give the division to the Rangers, but they both seem to have some weaknesses. The Mariners did a great job adding Figgins (which hurt the Angels), Cliff Lee, and Milton Bradley and could have a bonus if Erik Bedard comes back from injury. But I’m not sure its enough for them to win the West. They have a great lineup built around speed and defense, but completely lack power, and that is going to hurt them. Unless they make a trade for a decent bat, I’m not sure that they really have a chance to win the West. The Angels have been pretty dominate in the West for the majority of the decade, but I think the torch has passed. Losing Lackey and Figgins did set the team back some, and they no longer have the strong minor league system which they can trade from. They desperately need their starting rotation to pitch up to their potential, something that has plagued them from time to time in recent years. While they have the talent to finish 1st, I see some declining performances on the horizon, that could drop them to 3rd.

While there might be a signing or two over the next few days, usually the Hot Stove cools down around Christmas for a few days. With this brief cool down period I thought it would be a good time to take a quick look at who has helped themselves or hurt themselves so far this offseason:

Playoff teams:

New York Yankees: They lost Johnny Damon and Matsui but have signed Nick Johnson and traded for Granderson and Vasquez. The Yankees added some big names and filled big holes in CF and in the rotation (which i’m sure Sabathia and company are thankful for), but they did pay a price for them. The 6 players they gave up all had pretty decent value to the Yankees and leave a hole in the organization most notably in their bullpen. I think the signing of Johnson was their best move, he doesn’t have Matsui’s power but he is an excellent hitter. The Yankees still need to fill their hole in LF and add at least one bullpen arm. Right now they are neck and neck with the Red Sox for best team in baseball.

Boston Red Sox: They lost Jason Bay, but did sign John Lackey, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro. Losing Bay is tough, but Cameron’s defensive ability almost makes the move a wash. Also the Red Sox hitting this year will be better with a full season of Victor Martinez and the major upgrade at SS with Scutaro. The best part about the Red Sox moves is that they haven’t sacrificed any of their top young talent or prospects, giving them plenty of flexibility to make additional moves. They still need to add another big bat, and some bullpen help.

Minnesota Twins: The Twins added J.J. Hardy which fills a major need but they lost Orlando Cabrera so its a minimal improvement. The Twins could still use a 3b, and another starter if they really want to contend with the Yankees and Red Sox.

Los Angeles Angels: The Angels signed Matsui, but they did lose both Lackey and Figgins, neither of whom have been replaced. The Angels have a big hole at the top of their rotation right now. The Angels could use some bullpen help, a frontline starter and another bat. Los Angeles will need to fill at least two of those needs if they hope to stay atop the AL West.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies finally got Roy Halladay, but they gave up Cliff Lee for three lesser prospects than those they gave up for Halladay. While their might be a slight improvement I doubt it will make a drastic difference in their rotation. Adding Polanco gives them better production from 3B, but wasn’t a huge upgrade. The Phillies need to still add help at the back of their bullpen and in the back of their rotation.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cards could still potentially resign Matt Holliday or Pineiro so its hard to say whether or not the Cards are winners or losers just yet. Signing Penny was a smart move and if the Cards add another quality pitcher their rotation could be unstoppable. They will need to find a way to replace Holliday’s production if he doesn’t resign.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies lost Jason Marquis, and he will need to be replaced in the rotation. Outside of that the Rockies need to add a few bench and bullpen players. The most important thing for the Rockies is the continued development of their young players, as their are no major holes in the roster.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have lost Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland and Padilla could be joining him from their rotation exodus. The Dodgers will likely lose Orlando Hudson as well which leaves a big hole in their middle infield. Los Angles needs to add a 2B, two starters some bullpen help and a couple of bench players. Right now they are a team without direction and I don’t know if they will make the playoffs unless they make a major move or two.

So who do you think are the Winners and Losers among last season’s playoff teams?

Red Sox Agree To Terms with Lackey and Cameron: The Boston Red Sox made two big moves yesterday signing John Lackey, the top starter on the market to a 5-year $85 million deal. After adding another top flight starter, Boston moved quickly to fill their hole in LF by signing OF Mike Cameron to a 2-year $15.5 million deal. I like both moves for the Red Sox and I also liked how they moved quickly to sign these players to fill their needs. Let’s look closer at these deals for a minute, and what it means for the teams involved.

Signing John Lackey was great move for the Red Sox considering their other options for adding a starting pitcher. None of the other top free agent starters were nearly as good as Lackey and all of them are looking at $10 million a year salaries. While I’m not usually a fan of 5-year deals for starting pitchers, Lackey was one of the younger starters on the market and has been reasonably healthy throughout his career. Lackey gives the Red Sox the best rotation in baseball, joining Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Dice-K, Clay Buchholz and Tim Wakefield.

The signing makes even more sense considering the impending 3 team trade involving Seattle-Philadelphia-Toronto, and includes top pitchers Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Yes Halladay might be a better pitcher, but the Red Sox would have to shell out 3-4 top young players and $20 million a year to keep Halladay in the mix. And While the price for Lee (in prospects), might have been cheaper, extending him (which might not be possible) might have been more years or money. Now the Red Sox can have Buchholz and Lackey instead of just Halladay, and they can use their other prospects (and maybe Buchholz as well) to trade for a big bat. Boston does have to give the Angels their first round pick (the Blue Jays now get their 2nd round pick for Marco Scutaro) 29th overall for signing Lackey, but that’s not a big loss. The Red Sox already received the Braves 1st round pick (2oth) for Billy Wagner, and will get an additional 1st or early 2nd round pick for Jason Bay when he signs. In addition the Red Sox get a supplemental 1st round pick for each Bay and Wagner, meaning they will be pretty set when next year’s draft rolls around.

If signing Lackey wasn’t enough Boston made another smart move yesterday by inking Cameron. While Cameron is getting up there in age (36) he’s still been a fairly productive outfielder, and well worth the 2 year $15.5 million dollar investment. Cameron will shift over to LF, but does give the Red Sox plenty of flexibility having him back up Ellsbury in CF (not to mention maybe giving him a few pointers). Cameron loses a little value in moving to LF, but gives them a top notch defender to play balls off the Green Monster. While Cameron’s skills have declined some, he still routinely posts OPS numbers in the .800′s and has hit 20 or more home runs in each of the last 4 seasons (including 2 in San Diego). While he is no longer a threat on the base paths, he is by no means a base clogger. Cameron still has the wheels to take two bases on a single and steal an occasional base. While he might not have the profile of a Bay or Holliday, he signed for half of what they will make next year and for a third of the years it will take to sign them.

The Red Sox couldn’t afford to bring in both a top pitcher and a top hitter, Cameron now gives them a lot of value in the outfield at a very reasonable price. While the offensive numbers may be lower, defensively Cameron should save a lot of runs in the outfield. With Lackey and Cameron on board, the Red Sox will limit their opponents (the Yankees) chances for getting into a slugfest. The moves also keep the Boston farm system in tact to make a move or two at the trade deadline.

Angels Sign WS MVP Matsui: As the Red Sox made two moves the Yankees watched one of their own stars slip away. What makes it even worse, is that he went to another one of their A.L. rivals. The Angels did well signing Hideki Matsui to a one year $6.5 million deal. Matsui on a multi-year deal is a huge risk, he is injury prone, lacks any defensive value, and will be 36 next season. But Matsui at one season, for half of what he made last year is brilliant. When he’s healthy Matsui is a great DH; he hits both lefties and righties very well, offering moderate power and great plate discipline. The Angels need to just keep him out of the field…where he is awful defensively and is more prone to injury. The only downside to this move is it puts Bobby Abreu back out in the field every day, which comes with its own defensive limitations. But it does give Los Angeles depth and a solid offensive core. Between their outfield, 1B and DH, the Angels have 5 players who have 20+ home run power (Abreu is pushing it) and all capable of an .800 plus OPS. Matsui alone doesn’t make up for the losses of Figgins and Lackey that the Angels have suffered, but it does dull the blow a little bit.  Overall its a good move by Los Angeles as they look to finally overcome the Yankees and Red Sox.

While MLB’s free agency and trade period is always slower than any of the other four major sports, it has been exceptionally slow this offseason. Everyone who has signed so far, has signed as a minor league free agent, and there haven’t even been any discussions with any of the big name free agents. As for trades, some names and potential destinations have been floated, but nothing serious has come close to happening. That is all expected to change in two weeks when baseball’s winter meetings begin. By then teams will have had their internal discussions and budgets all set up, initial contact will have been made with FA’s and trade partners, and everyone will be in one spot, making deals easier. Before that happens though, we might see one of the biggest names on the trade block on the move. According to the Boston Globe the Red Sox are getting serious in their efforts to acquire Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays, before the winter meetings.

Halladay would be a huge addition to the Red Sox, giving them three bona fide Aces to headline their staff, but at what cost? Now I’m not talking about the cost in prospects, which is speculated at beginning with pitchers Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly. I’m talking about what it will cost in money. Strange as it may sound I think the Red Sox can more easily afford to give up two top young pitching prospects, than the huge contract extension that Halladay will require.

Buchholz and Kelly are both nice prospects, but neither should hold up Boston in trading for Halladay. Especially if no other top prospects are included in the deal. Buchholz has been involved in every trade rumor by the Red Sox over the last 4 years. He was once considered to be an ‘ace’ in the making, and has shown plenty of flashes of his potential. While he may no longer be considered a No. 1 starter, he could definitely be a No. 2 for a long time in this league. Even with all his youth and potential, Buchholz is no Roy Halladay. Kelly, who is reported as a potential sticking point, was the Red Sox 1st round pick in 2008 and one of the brightest pitching prospects in the minors. I understand a little reluctance in moving Kelly, but he is an extremely raw pitcher that won’t be in the majors for 2-4 years. Over that time Halladay will have won 15+ games a year, be one of the top pitchers in the league, and likely have led whatever team he’s on (Yankees) to the postseason. Kelly and Buchholz are worth moving for Halladay and what he brings to the table.

In and of itself the $20 million per year Halladay will require isn’t outrageous, and could fit into Boston’s $120 million+ payroll. The problem is that given Boston’s current situation in regards to money on the books it is going to take some creative accounting to fit Halladay in. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts the Red Sox have $109 million tied up for next season, and that’s not counting any of the arbitration cases or league minimum players, which will add at least $15 million and potentially as much as $20 million. Also that figure doesn’t include Jason Bay or his replacement in left field. If they were to resign Bay and add Halladay the Red Sox would add another $30 million+ to their payroll. As much money as the Red Sox have spent over the years, they have never spent more than $143 million on payroll. This would put them more than $12 million over that previous high, and that’s without signing any other additional free agents.

The truth of the matter is that this year isn’t even the Red Sox biggest problem. Next year things get even tricker for Boston. Any Halladay extension is going to be in the neighborhood of $20 million a year, and a Bay deal will probably be around $16 million a year. Which seems to be fine since they only have $50 million committed next season, and David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are coming off the books. That’s a deceiving figure, because again it doesn’t take into consideration any of this year’s arbitration cases (which will only be larger), new cases (which will jump from $400K, to a couple of million), and Jonathan Papelbon who’s contract could be worth $10-12 million. That $50 million figure (or $86 million with Halladay and Bay) will jump by well over $30 million for all the arbitration cases. Which puts Boston at a very manageable $116 million range, except they have to resign Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez who are both going to be free agent’s after next season. Both will require eight figure per season contracts that could add an additional $25-30 million. The Red Sox will also need to replace Ortiz and Lowell next season in their lineup, and while they can probably find better, and cheaper options, they will still require millions of dollars of payroll.

This seems like a pretty bad payroll crunch to me. I don’t see how Boston can resign Jason Bay if Halladay is acquired, because frankly I don’t know where they will get the money. Yes, the Red Sox are a big market team, but not even them can spend like the Yankees, and not in this economic climate. They don’t have the luxury boxes or sheer number of seats that other stadiums have, to increase their payroll. I think Boston will trade for Halladay, and then find a cheaper option in left field, but this move could very well blow up in their face, if they don’t have the offense to beat New York.

1. Matt Holliday LF:  Holliday is one of the best hitters to reach the free agent market in the last few years. He is a legitimate  3 or 4 hole hitter on any team. He also offers solid defense out in left field for any team that wants him. Expect the Yankees and Red Sox to be interested, with the Giants, Braves and Mets as long shots.

2. Jason Bay LF:  Bay brings everything to the table that Holliday does with the exception of defense. Bay’s lack of defense and being a year older will make him a bit cheaper on the market. I’d expect all the same teams to be in on Bay, (obviously with the exception of whoever lands Holliday) and I’d add the Mariners to the list.

3. John Lackey SP:  Lackey is the top arm on the market this year, and a frontline starter on any team. He’s not an “ace” in the sense of CC Sabathia, but their isn’t a team in this league that wouldn’t like him in the top 3 of their rotation. Its interesting that the Angels seemed inclined to let Lackey walk. He has dealt with some injuries the last few years, bringing him down a notch or two. Dodger blue might make sense, the Mariners are another team that makes sense out West looking for top pitcher. If Lackey heads east the Yankees and Mets will be very interested, and the Red Sox will do their due diligence as well.  Two extreme dark horses are the Nationals and Orioles. Both teams have plenty of money to spend and need a top pitcher, but probably won’t overpay if the Yankees and Red Sox are involved.

4. Chone Figgins 3B, UTL:  Here we see a drop off in the market. While Figgins is a good player he’s hardly someone you build your team around. He doesn’t fit the typical 3B profile as his speed is his biggest asset. If the Angels can’t retain him, the Phillies will be the top team calling. Orioles, Giants, and Cardinals could all be interested as well.

5. Nick Johnson 1B:  Johnson has an injury history that will keep him from getting a long term deal, but when he’s healthy he’s one of the most productive players in the game. His power numbers and defense fell off some last year hurting his value, but he was still an on base machine. I’d expect the power numbers to rebound this season and for him to post around a .900 OPS. The Giants, Braves, Orioles, and Mariners should all be in on Johnson. I think the Mets will be interested as well, and I’d never count out the Athletics on anyone who gets on base as often as Johnson does.

6. Johnny Damon LF:  Damon isn’t a long term answer for anyone, but for the next 2 years there are few safer players out there on the FA market. Damon year in year out produces a solid OPS, whether its sometimes with a bit more power (20+ hrs) or a higher obp Damon is always a big cog in the offense. Damon also still has speed as a part of his game, and has always been a smart base runner. I think the Yankees will retain Damon, but if they go in another direction there will be a few teams interested. Giants and Cardinals make the most sense.

7. Randy Wolf SP:  Wolf had a great year for the Dodgers last season and helped them reach the NLCS. Wolf isn’t a true “ace” and is a few steps below Lackey. I think the Dodgers will retain him (unless they sign Lackey). If he does leave, the Mets, Nationals, and Astros (if they decide to fore go rebuilding) make the most sense. Some AL teams could come calling, but the NL seems like a better fit for Wolf.

8. Rich Harden SP:  In terms of stuff, Harden is the best pitcher on the market unfortunately he can’t find a way to stay healthy. As a result he can forget about any deal longer than two years and his price tag will be well below Lackey’s and Wolf’s. I think a number of teams will be in on Harden trying to catch lightening in a bottle. In addition to the usual suspects, I think the A’s, O’s, Nats, and Brewers will all be in on Harden.

9. Jose Valverde RP:  Valverde is the top closer on the market this season, but faces a few road blocks. The first being the glut of closers on the market, and the second the lack of legitimate openings among teams. Valverde is a good closer but is far from the supreme status of Rivera and Papelbon. The Phillies will be interested, but I don’t think they will overpay. The Nats, Rays, and Rangers all could use some help at the back end of their bullpen, but probably will look at cheaper options. The Cubs could be an interesting team to watch.

10. Aroldis Chapman SP:  Chapman is a 21-year old Cuban defector with a 100 MPH fastball, but also 100 questions that need answered as well. Is he truly major league ready? How are his command, control, and off speed pitches? These are just a few of those questions that teams will be asking. His age and fastball will get him a big time deal, but he is not without risk. The Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites in this race, everyone else has to be a long shot. The Orioles could get serious, especially if the Yankees sign Lackey (more or less taking them out of the race).

11. Joel Pineiro SP:  Pineiro is a solid mid rotation arm. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, but a great 2009 will give him a nice deal. The Cardinals will look to retain him, but expect a lot of teams to get interested in him. The Nats, O’s, Astros, and Brewers should all be at the top of the list.

12. Orlando Hudson 2B:  Hudson has lost a step defensively (though he still won the Gold Glove), but is still a pretty productive player at 2B. Hudson would be a nice fit for the Nationals and a solid 2 hole hitter for them. If the Mets can dump Castillo’s contract they could get involved as well.

13. Adam LaRoche 1B:  LaRoche struggled with the Pirates and Red Sox last season, but was on fire with Braves the last two months. Atlanta will look to keep LaRoche, but if they can’t the O’s, Mets, Giants and Mariners will be interested.

14. Mike Cameron CF:  Cameron is still a solid center fielder and offers both defensive and offensive upside. Athletics and Yankees could make sense. Also the Padres could bring Cameron back to patrol their spacious center field.

15. Marco Scutaro:  Scutaro is the top short stop on the market. He has always been solid defensively, and had a breakout offensive year. The Astros and Red Sox make the most sense.

16. Adrian Beltre 3B:  Beltre is a great buy low candidate this offseason. He had a pretty bad and injury filled walk year, but prior to that was the model of consistency, 20+ home run power, around an .800 OPS, and excellent defense at third. His offensive numbers should be helped by getting out of Seattle as well. The Twins and Phillies will be the most interested. I’d imagine the O’s will get involved as well.

17. Marlon Byrd CF, OF:  Byrd is very much under the radar, but one of the better outfielders on the market. Not too many teams need center fielders so I could see him landing in a spot like St. Louis or possibly with San Francisco.

18. Jon Garland SP:  Garland is another mid rotation candidate, who offers little upside but can be a great addition to most teams rotations. I think he’s a perfect fit in Washington. If the Cards lose Pineiro, he makes sense there, or would be a solid addition for the Brewers.

19. Andy Pettitte SP:  Part of the reason he is so low on this list is the fact that he is almost sure to resign with the Yankees. Also I don’t know how much you can trust him to put up another year like he had in 2009. He could easily have another 2008 down year. If he for some reason left the Yankees, the Dodgers or Astros make some sense.

20. Eric Bedard SP:  Bedard is very similar to Harden, a pitcher with amazing stuff, but has been too injured to make a long term investment in. Plenty of teams should be interested in him. And it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Orioles bring back their former staff ace.

With the World Series over the offseason begins and baseball’s free agency period begins in two weeks. The Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox got an early start as they look to shape their roster to knock off the Yankees next season. The Angels resigned outfielder Bobby Abreu to a 2-year, $19 million deal. The Red Sox on the other hand looked outside their organization, trading for outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins, for a pair of left-handed minor league pitchers, Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

The Angels move to resign Abreu was pretty smart on their part. Despite being 35, (and 36 when the 2010 season starts) Abreu would have been one of the most coveted hitters on the open market, given his patience and production at the plate. Last season Abreu posted a .293/.390/.435 line (ba/obp/slug), with 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 38 attempts. Abreu is the model of consistency, since 1998, (his first year as a starter) his batting average has never dipped below .283, his on base percentage has always been .370 or higher, and his career slugging percentage is .493. Abreu’s defense has fallen, but his offensive ability still makes him a very productive outfielder. The Angels now have Abreu for at least two more years at $9 million a year. In 2012, they have a $9 million option or a $1 million buyout, guaranteeing Abreu at least $19 million.  Last season Abreu was one of the last free agents to sign, settling for a bargain basement 1 year, $5 million deal, so this was a smart signing for Abreu as well. He may have gotten more money for one year, but he got a second year plus the buyout. On top of that, the option year becomes guaranteed with either 550 plate appearances in 2011 or 1,100 over the next two years. Considering he had over 660 last year, that option will be guaranteed barring some serious injury. The Angels can now focus on their pitching staff, that is in danger of losing ace John Lackey, and their third base spot, where Chone Figgins is a potential free agent.

The Red Sox on the other hand bought themselves some protection in case their top free agent, Jason Bay, decides to move on to greener pastures. Hermida was once a top prospect in the Marlins system, but has never fully capitalized on his potential. He’s been an average defensive outfielder and a solid hitter, but has lacked the power or consistency for a corner outfield spot. 2007 was his best year when he hit .296/.369/.501, but his numbers have dropped since then making him too expensive for the Marlins to offer arbitration too this year, leading to the trade. In reality, he’s not a starter on a playoff caliber team, but there is nothing wrong with the Red Sox hoping that a change of scenery can jump start a young player’s career. Boston should still be looking for a full time replacement for Bay if he leaves, but Hermida could maybe be a platoon option if a starter can’t be found. Hermida hits righties pretty well (though far from spectacular), if Boston can find someone to face lefties, they could still get good production out of left field this season. Hermida is a solid player to have on the bench for Boston, especially when you consider that J.D. Drew has missed at least 22 games in each of his three years with the Red Sox. Given the fact the Red Sox didn’t trade away anything significant I think this is a solid win for Boston, as they look to reshape the roster.

Three-fourths of of the two Championship series are already set, and the fourth could be determined today if the Phillies can knock off the Rockies. The World Champion Phillies have the distinction (if they make it to the second round) of being the only team not to sweep their divisional series, as both LA teams and the Yankees advanced quickly to the next round. I don’t think you can chalk it up to a major talent disparity, as the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees were not that much better than their opponents. I think that may be why the Yanks swept, but not the other two series. I think what we saw in these matchups was the importance of momentum. Its something that we always hear about in sports, but one of the hardest things to quantify. But three playoff sweeps are the perfect example for how momentum can kill you.

Now to be fair, the better team, and the team with home field advantage came out ahead in every series. With the exception of the Yankees-Twins matchup, no one really thought these games would would go by so quickly. The Dodgers were the better team, but the Cards had some mega talent on their roster. It was a series that could go either way, and would likely go the full five games. It lasted just three games, because in game two with the Cardinals in perfect position to even up the series 1-1 before heading back to St. Louis, OF Matt Holliday made a critical error that allowed the Dodgers to come back to win the game. The Cards had no chance in Game 3 at home, after literally watching the series slip through their (Holliday’s) hands.

The Red Sox vs. Angels series was another one where the Angels had the advantages on paper, but the Red Sox were favored given their vaunted lineup, vast playoff experience, and the Fenway Faithful giving the Sox a huge advantage in games three and four. Well the Angels shut down the the Sox lineup in the first two games, holding them to just eight hits, including only two extra base hits (neither of which was a home run). Up 2-0 in the series the Angels took away another advantage the Red Sox had by ensuring the series had to come back to Anaheim if Boston hoped to win it. If the Red Sox went back to Boston tied 1-1, their home field advantage for games three and four could have given them the momentum to win the series. Instead being down 2-0 left them in a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of. The Red Sox did hit a little better (seven hits, two extra base hits, including a home run) scoring six runs, compared to the single run they managed in the first two games. That extra offense wasn’t enough as the bullpen got touched up for five runs in the final two innings. In watching the game you just see that despite being down by three runs entering the 8th inning, the Angels showed no sign of panic. They knew they could win that game and finish the series right there in Boston.

Now the least surprising sweep was by far the Yankees over the Twins. Minnesota was coming off a 12 inning game to just get into the playoffs, and were a team without their second best hitter and their best pitcher. They had just about no chance to knock off the Yankees and all their top baseball talent. And even though it was one of the worst calls I’ve ever seen in game (especially with the ump down the line) the Joe Mauer foul call in Game 2 did not change the outcome of the series (though probably changed the outcome of the game). Even if the Twins win that game, they would have been overmatched and unable to win two of the last three games. I maybe could have seen them winning one more at home, but even that was a stretch. The biggest thing with that call was that it visibly took the wind out of the Twins sails, in that game (bases loaded no outs and you can’t get a run) and yesterday at home (4-1 loss).

In all three matchups we saw the importance of grabbing that important 2-0 series lead, before you head out on the road. Hopefully from a baseball fan’s perspective, the Championship round and the World Series are a bit more exciting than the first round has been (Sorry Rockies fans I don’t see them overcoming the Phillies). Baseball could use some good drama in October, especially since all we have left are the big market teams.

Though only two days into the postseason, we’ve already had our share of surprises. In the American League, both series have only gone one game, and while the Yankees first game went as expected, the Red Sox performance last night raised some eyebrows. If the Yankees had not crushed the Twins on Wednesday evening it would have been a major disappointment. Regardless of the fact that the Yankees are the better team to begin with, Minnesota was coming off their one game extra inning playoff with the Tigers the night before, on top of that it was CC Sabathia facing off against Brian Duensing. The Yankees are right where they should be in this postseason, their AL East counterparts on the other hand are not. The Boston Red Sox got blanked by the Anaheim Angels 5-0. Now a John Lackey-John Lester matchup in LA is one that favors the Angels, so its not surprising that they won. What is surprising is the score, or lack there of by the Red Sox. In six postseason games this year, the Red Sox are the only team not to score. Boston is not a team that can win 2-1 or 3-2 games this postseason, their pitching is no better than solid and their defense is suspect. They are built to out hit their opponent, except it didn’t show last night when they only managed four hits (all singles). If the Boston bats don’t awaken soon then Anaheim will cruise to the second round.

In the National League each series has gone two games and each has had its own surprises. The Dodgers are up 2-0 and look to go for the sweep Saturday evening in St. Louis. Look I like the Dodgers as much as anyone, and have been among their biggest supporters of their postseason aspirations, but not even I thought they were going to be up 2-0. The Cardinals were a number of analysts’ World Series pick from the NL, and seemed destined to steal a game in LA with Carpenter and Wainwright pitching the first two games. The fact that the Dodgers already beat the two best pitchers in the entire NL playoffs (Wainwright didn’t get the loss, as Matt Holliday the bullpen blew last nights game), bodes well for the rest of the October in LA. Now the Cards are reeling, even if they can win game 3 they will need to rely on John Smoltz or Kyle Loshe in a deciding Game 4…ouch. Theoretically they could bring Chris Carpenter back on short rest, but he didn’t look sharp in Game 1 (105 pitches in five innings, giving up four runs on nine hits) on regular rest I’m not sure how he’ll respond when he’s less fresh. Wainwright was lights out, but he isn’t going on two days rest for Game 4 if they get there (though don’t be surprised to see him come in out of the bullpen if its close). The other NL series is just as surprising. The World Champion Phillies were the team I thought that would be up 2-0 in their series over the Rockies. Instead the Rockies touched up ace Cole Hamels for seven hits and four runs in five innings yesterday to even the series up 1-1. Now I thought the Rockies would win at least one game in this series, but I thought it would be in Colorado, and not against Hamels. The Phillies needed to jump out to a series lead before the games went back to Colorado given the precarious state of their bullpen. Now the pressure is on the Phillies to win on the road to keep their hope for a repeat title alive.

So what do you guys think, have the early returns changed anyone’s postseason predictions?

This will mark the fourth time in the last six years that the Red Sox and Angels have met in the postseason. In the first three series Boston came out the winner (and twice went on to win the World Series). This year though I wouldn’t be booking my Boston ALCS tickets just yet though. The 2009 Angels are a better team than they were in the past. At the same time the Red Sox are falling, due to injury and ineffectiveness.

David Ortiz salvaged his year with a late power surge, but his offensive numbers were way down this year. Ortiz was awful this year against LHP’s which is something he’ll face quite a bit of in this series, as two of the Angels starters and their top two relievers are southpaws. Alex Gonzalez and Jason Varitek have become automatic outs in the Red Sox lineup. Mike Lowell has battled injuries all year, and while his offensive numbers have been solid, his defensive numbers are way down. Defense has become a big problem across the board on this team, as with the exception of Drew, Gonzalez, Youkilis (only at 1B) and Pedroia, everyone else is well below average defensively. Now to be fair those four players are all very good defenders at their positions, but they don’t make up for how bad the rest of the team is. Teams can run all day on Varitek and Martinez behind the plate, and moving V-Mart to 1B significantly weakens the defense as well. For all Ellsbury’s speed and range (and surprising good arm) he has been a liability in centerfield for Boston. Jason Bay, like many other outfielders before him, as looked completely lost playing in front of the Green Monster. On the pitching side of it, the Red Sox will need to rely on Dice-K to continue to overcome the control issues that plagued him at the beginning of the season, and Clay Buchholtz will need to give them a big time quality start in Game 3. Boston’s bullpen was thought to be their strength this season, but has overall been a bit of a disappointment. When they are on and have control they are devastating, because of the number of power arms they have. Unfortunately they have seemed to disappear in a number of big games down the stretch.

The best news for Anaheim is that their strengths are Boston’s weaknesses. While the Angels have some power hitters, they put more balls in play that should drop for hits against a weak Boston defense. Anaheim also relies on taking walks and speed which works pretty nicely against a Red Sox staff that has control issues right now, and a catching tandem that can’t throw anyone out. The Angels have a fairly strong defense across the board, with Bobby Abreu the only real liability in right field.  The Angels have a strong staff four deep, but its not a dominate playoff staff. The best thing going for it is the two lefties (Kazmir and Saunders) that should make Big Papi completely ineffective in Boston. Which is huge considering he hit two-thirds of his home runs at Fenway this year, and batted 50 points higher. If he’s out then that means that Varitek is likely starting (with V-Mart at 1B,  Youk at 3B, and Lowell DH’ing) hurting the lineup offensively and defensively.

The bad news for the Angels is in the end they are still going up against a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia,Youkilis, Bay, V-Mart, Lowell, and Drew. Not to mention facing a battery of Lester and Beckett in the first two games, with Papelbon closing the door. I do think in the star power and experience of the Red Sox will in out in the end. No they might not have the best bench, or defense. And there are more questions in their lineup and bullpen than in years past. But at the end of the day they are still the Boston Red Sox, and at the end of the series I think they will be advancing after squeaking by 3-2 in the matchup.