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MLB 2011 Preview/Predictions

March 1, 2011 in Uncategorized by Kyle Howard

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak contributing writer Kyle Howard:

Just about a month away from the offical start of the MLB 2011 season. Many offseason publicity and free agency moves make this year in the MLB very interesting. Crawford to the Red Sox, Cliff Lee back to the Phillies, Werth to the Nationals, and Rafeal Soriano are only some of the new faces, in new places from this years offseason transactions. Here is my run through on my projections for this year:

AL East:

1) Red Sox; It kills me to put the Soxs as my division winners being a diehard Yankees fan but the Red Sox really beefed up their line up with the acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Their line up is as good as any in baseball and their pitching staff when healthy is top 5 in the league. Look for the Sox to make it back to October with either a division title or a wild card spot.

2) Yankees; Many Yankee fans look at this offseason as a failure. Not being able to convince Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke to come to New York was a tough pill to swallow. Their line up is still as lethal as any in the game and with the acquisition of Rafeal Soriano to help set up Rivera in the 9th really helped the needs of the bullpen. The starting pitching is going to be the real question mark throughout the season. If Burnett can turn his season around, Nova can turn into an every 5 day starter and the Mark Prior project can make strides, the Yankees will be pushing for yet another division title. Look for them to contend with the Sox until the last month of the season and either walking away with a wild card spot or best case scenario a division title.

3) Orioles; The Orioles are my surprise team of the league this year. They have done a great job of loading up on young talent and I feel that 2011 is the year they start making some noise. With Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters being the focal points of this team, the pitching talent needs to step up and you may be looking at a very dangerous team in the next few years. Look for the Orioles to have an above average year and finishing 3rd in the AL East.

4) Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay is in a transitioning period. They lost Crawford, Garza, and Soriano to free agentcy/trades and that leaves some big holes to fill for some young talented players in their farm system. With the acquistion of Manny and Damon, the Rays bring in some experience to their club with a more risk/reward mentality. The Rays staff is still a dangerous one lead by David Price and Evan Longoria will only improve and maybe a darkhorse candidate for MVP this year. Give the Rays some time to develop and they will be back in the postseason within the next couple of weeks.

5) Toronto; With still lingering questions on what Toronto’s next move is going to be, look for them to have a down year this year. Jose Bautista coming off a 54 home run year campaign and getting an extention I could see having a downer year. With some young potential pitching talent, look for the Blue Jays to use those as trade bait especially strikeout specialist Brandon Morrow.

AL Central:

1) Twins; It is difficult for me to pick a winner in this division being as the parity is so well distributed, so I will take experience and choose the Twinkees as the division winner. With Morneau coming back and the ability to resign Pavano, who is an innings machine, the Twins are poised to be the front runners of this jam packed division. If Nathan comes back healthy from his season ending surgury last year look for the Twins to be the winners of this division.

2) White Sox; Last year was a disappointment for the White Sox. With much publicity hovering over Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox struggled for most of the season. With the key offseason acquistion of Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko this team will have quite a powerful 4 and 5 spots in their line up. Also, Buerhle leading the staff followed by Floyd and Danks, look for this team to contend with the Twins for the division title and the loser will be in the wild card hunt.

3) Tigers; The Tigers 2011 season is on the shoulders of how healthy/sober Miguel Cabrera can be. The man has as much talent as their is in the MLB but, off field troubles have put the Tigers in a spin. Offseason acquistion Victor Martinez adds some power to a line up that was in desperate need for help around Cabrera.  Verlander leads this young staff, and when he is on is one of the most powerful pitchers in the league. A sophmore slump from promising young star Rick Porcello was a key difference maker in the Tigers 2010 season. If Porcello can get over his 2nd year struggles, look for the Tigers to contend for a majority of the season, but I feel the off the field publicity and inexperience in pitching will lead them to a 3rd place finish.

4) Royals; Its been a bad decade for the Royals but, this year,  I can see them making some strides to becoming a better squad. Alex Gordon needs to become the player we all thought he would become when he was drafted 4th overall in 2005. Luke Hochevar splashed onto the scene last year with a decent season and showing signs he could become a decent starter at the Major league level. The Royals still have a long way to go but, if their draft picks start stepping up the next 5 years could look promising for this squad.

5) Indians; The Indians are in the rebuilding stage as an organization. With many young prospects gained from the Cliff Lee trade and Victor Martinez trade, look for this team to show a lot of new faces this year. Shin soo Choo is a rising star in the outfield showing signs of power and batting average and a good piece to build around. This will be a struggling year for the Indians and will stay that way unless they make some noise at the trade deadline.

AL West:

1) Angels; Coming off a very disappointing season last year look for the Angels to make it back to the postseason this year. With a star studed staff lead by Jared Weaver, Scott Kazmir, and Ervin Santana look for the pitching to help carry this team into October. Kendry Morales maybe the biggest difference maker on this team this season. If he comes back as healthy as he was before his ACL accident, look for him to be another darkhorse MVP candidate.

2) Texas; Losing Cliff Lee to free agency crippled this teams potential for years to come. Coming off of the organizations first World Series experience the sky was the limit for this team. Led by MVP Josh Hamilton and power slugging OF Nelson Cruz, this team will go as far as these 2 stars can stay healthy. With questions surrounding the starting staff, look for the Rangers to pick up an arm at the trade deadline in hopes of making another push into October.

3) Athletics; The Athletics have one of the best young pitching staffs in baseball and they live and die on how well these young guns can do. Grant Balfour, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill,  Brett Anderson, and Andrew Bailey are the cornerstones of this young franchise. Dont be surprised if they A’s make a push at the deadline by moving one of these players for a bat in an often weak line up with an aging Eric Chavez. Look for the Athletics to continue rebuilding and continue improvement for years to come.

4) Mariners; The Mariners need power and they need it fast. The Mariners were last in almost every statistical batting category last year and they need to add some power to that line up. With much promise in former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley from UNC, it wont be a surprise to see him starting by mid season. Felix Hernandez is just a decent offensive team away from being arguably the best pitcher and baseball and look for him to continue his dominence in 2011.

NL East:

1) Phillies; Many analyst have it already penciled in that the Phillies will be holding up another World Series Title come October in 2011. With possibly the best 4 starters ever to be assembled on a single team, look for them to dominate most of the teams in the NL. Additions such as Cliff Lee only make this team even stronger and a star studded line up to back him up it will be quite a challenge to take this team in a 7 game series. With Werth gone that opens up the spot for top prospect Dominic Brown to take the rains of right field. The Phillies will walk away with this division and by July be focusing on the Playoffs.

2) Braves; The Braves suprised many of us last year and this year are a team not to mess with. With Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe leading the staff and the emergence of Jason Heyward becoming a star in the MLB, and the acquisition of Dan Uggla,  look for the Braves to win a wild card and being on an upset alert come playoff time.

3) Marlins; The Marlins have been trying to develop young talent for most of the past couple of years in hopes of turning into a legit playoff squad. Lead by MVP candidate Hanley Rameriz and pitching stud Josh Johnson, the Marlins are looking for an additional bat and arm to help make a charge at a competitive East division.

4) Mets; I really do not know where to start with Los Mets. They have as much talent as a team would need to make an apperance in the postseason but, for some reason they never seem to all click at the same time. Look for this years Mets team to be centered around David Wright and a healthy Jose Reyes. Pitching is very suspect due to Johan having elbow surgery. Look for the Mets to try and compete but come up short in the East race.

5) Nationals; Being from Northern Virginia and having been to multiple Nats games its difficult for me to put them in this position. Strasburg is what brought this team alive and made them play with passion and pride but, with Tommy John Surgery dont look for Strasburg to be throwing until September, if they even decide to let him throw at all. With key acquistion of Jayson Werth, the Nats will be along the same lines of production as last year. The future looks bright in Washington and if Strasburg can come back as good as he left, and Harper doesn’t disappoint down in the minors, this team will be fun to watch in the coming years.

NL Central:

1) Cubs; I know its as shocking to you as it is to me that the Cubs are going to finish first in the division. The Cubs made a key move in acquiring Garza this winter, and if their young talent continues to produce look for them to be a sneaky good team come playoff time. This pick is definitely a stretch and my upset of the year.

2) Reds; The surprise team of the year in 2010, the Reds will be looking to capitalize on thier run last year and continue it into this year. Joey Votto is the leader of this squad and looks to duplicate is MVP year last year and transition it to this year. Pitching was a strong point for the Reds last year but, I feel that they will struggle this year with to much inconsistentcy. Look for the Reds to make it back to the post season and be a contender as a wild card.

3) Cardinals; The Cardinals would be first in the Central if it werent for the staggering news on Adam Wainwright out for the season. The loss of Wainwright equals trouble for this club. With the huge injury to the staff and an unhappy Albert Pujols, look for this club to have a difficult time with all the distractions and end up chasing a wild card spot.

4) Brewers; The Brewers have 2 young stars in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, arguably 1 of the best tandems in the league. With the line up set up to produce runs the Brewers made a huge trade in aquiring Zack Greinke to help with the staff. Look for the Brewers to improve and possibly take the Cardinals spot and fighting for a spot in the post season.

5) Astros; It is easy to say that the Astros are in a rebuilding year. Losing Roy Oswalt to a trade pretty much sums it up. With young talent in the minors and an aging outfield minus Hunter Pence, look for the Astros to struggle most the year and look to being sellers at the deadline

6) Pirates; This team is the only team that manages to get great prospects and trade them away. The Pirates have not had a well established club since the 80′s and I don’t see that happening this year. Their one true star Andrew McCutchen is a lead-off hitter and you can’t build a team around that. Zack Duke will finish with a sub .500 win record and they will use many new arms from their farm system this year. Sorry so called “City of Champions” but you may want to concentrate on NFL happening in the fall and Crosby recovering over watching this squad this year.

NL West:

1) Giants; The defending World Series Champions have to be the favorites to come out of this jam packed West division. Offseason loss of World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria, leaves a big hole at shortstop and Juan Uribe’s departure to division rival LA leaves a big spot open at the utility role. With the young guns on the pitching staff such as Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner leading the way and crazy Wilson closing out games, look for this team to make it back to the Postseason in a coinflip of a division.

2) Rockies; the Rockies struggled last year despite the fact they are known as being a second half team only 2 years removed from their prolific playoff run. With flame thrower Ubaldo Jimenez leading the staff and Troy Tulowitzki the captain of the team. Look for the Rockies to make some noise and be a strong challenger for being the wild card team come October.

3) Padres; the Padres had a banner of a year last season coming down to the wire last season with the Giants going into the last game of the season. The Padres have an underrated pitching staff lead by rising star Mat Latos, with verterans such as Jon Garland to help mentor the fire baller. Free Agency hit the Padres hard by losing their superstar first basemen Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. I can see the Padres relying on their arms to keep them in the race but with no one significant to replace Gonzalez, runs are going to be hard to come by for this club.

4) Diamondbacks; This team is tricky to pick. One day their hot the next day their not. After giving up Dan Haren to the Angels in return for some prospects, the diamondbacks are clearly a process in the making. Relying heavily on star outfielder Justin Upton is going to be too much for this team to overcome.

Playoff Predition:

AL                                           NL                                         World Series

Red Sox                              Giants                               Phillies vs. Red Sox

Yankees                            Cubs                                         Phillies win 4-2

Angels                               Phillies

Twins                                 Rockies

Should The Orioles Sign A Designated Hitter?

January 14, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With the recent additions of Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy and Derek Lee, the Baltimore Orioles are seemingly out of the mix for a Designated Hitter. While that makes sense on paper, considering the presence of Luke Scott on the roster, I wouldn’t count the Orioles out on the DH front just yet. Despite the fact they have a ‘full’ roster, neither Felix Pie or Nolan Reimold have a firm grasp on the LF job. And while Scott is by no means a great fielder, he can adequately handle LF if the Orioles need him to.

The Orioles payroll is basically at the exact same spot it was last year despite all the additions, meaning adding an accomplished DH would be well within budget. Baltimore President/G.M. Andy McPhail’s contract is up after this season, so he might look at making a move, even if it isn’t something the Orioles ‘need to do’. Whether he wants to ensure his job or just his legacy, adding another big hitter to their lineup would benefit McPhail longterm. Lastly, if the Orioles sign a D.H. it could give them a lot of trade flexibility going forward.

They could look to move Pie now to free up more at bats, and look to move either whomever they sign or Luke Scott at the trade deadline depending on a number of factors. While Pie won’t exactly fetch a big return, the O’s could get back a middle reliever or two, and help fill a need. The Orioles can go out and sign either some utility free agent (i.e. a Willie Harris type) or someone else with some CF background (maybe take a flier on Lastings Milledge) to be a backup OF.

The general theory with the Orioles signing a D.H. would be that they would target a Right-handed batter to compliment Luke Scott. While that idea is backed up somewhat by the rumored pursuit of Vlad Guerrero, I would purpose targeting a left-handed bat first, with Jim Thome as my top option.

With the additions of Reynolds, Hardy and Lee, the Orioles are suddenly very right handed. Although they have a couple of switch hitters, their only true lefties are Scott and Markakis (Pie hits lefty as well). Considering that they are likely to face a right handed pitcher at least two-thirds of the time, adding another big lefty bat makes some sense. And replacing Thome for Pie is a huge win for Baltimore at the plate (the difference between Scott’s and Pie’s defense negates it some).

Thome revitalized his career in Minnesota last year, and proved that he can still be effective for a large chunk of the season. The Twins used him primarily against right-handed pitching and he delivered. Thome hit .283/.412/.627 overall, and was even more deadly against righties hitting .302/.455/.698. Adding Thome would give the O’s another big time power hitter when they face right-handed pitching, and on his days off would be a deadly pinch-hitter.

Now Thome comes with some drawbacks. He is pretty much done playing in the field, so it is a roster spot used on basically a DH only. Also, Thome has an injury history, which when added to his age means that you should count on him missing at least 20 games next year. When you add those 20 games to those when he will be siting against a tough lefty or during inter league play (though he can of course still pinch hit), and that is a good chunk of at bats that he won’t used for.

While the missed time is something to be concerned about, it isn’t a deal breaker for the Orioles. They can always give those at bats when he is nicked up to Reimold, which should hopefully help him to continue to develop. And while Thome might only get 60-75% of the at bats for the season, he is more valuable during that limited time than most hitters on the market would be for 90%+.

There are other additional options of course if Thome doesn’t want to come to Baltimore, like Nick Johnson, Johnny Damon, or Jason Giambi. And if those don’t work the Orioles could end up signing a right-handed DH like Guerrero, Jorge Cantu, or Andrew Jones. In the end though, Thome is probably the best fit for the team and would cap off a very successful offseason.

Orioles New Look Infield:

January 7, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With this week’s official signing of Derrek Lee, the Baltimore Orioles have reshaped their infield basically from top to bottom this offseason and quietly positioned themselves to be a dark horse this year. Let’s take a look on how this year’s infield might be a ‘wee bit’ better than last year’s, using Fangraphs’ WAR.

First Base:

Last year: Ty Wigginton was the primary first baseman, though he also logged significant time at second and third base as well. Wigginton showed some pop early in the season, but his numbers collapsed as the season wore on and he finished with a .316 wOBA. Wigginton did help himself defensively with a combined -7.7 UZR (including a negative rating at 1B) and a 0.3 WAR. While those numbers weren’t impressive, they were superior to those of the Orioles other options, which include Rhyne Hughes, Scott Moore, Jake Fox and Garrett Atkins.

This Year: Derek Lee should be a night and day improvement over the replacement level players the Orioles had manning the position last season. While injuries are a slight concern, with the exception of 2006, they are more of the nagging variety than those that would cause a significant amount of time lost. He is one of the better defensive first basemen in the league, consistently putting up positive UZR numbers. Lee should also be a consistent offensive threat, as even in a down year he posted an solid .340 wOBA, and is consistently above .360 throughout his career. Lee’s WAR of 2.0 isn’t outstanding, but it is far better production than the Orioles received. I would also expect Lee to have a bit of a bounce back year this season, and could have a WAR closer to the 3.5-4.0 range, which would be pretty impressive.

Second Base:

Last Year/This Year: While Brian Roberts returns this season, it is almost like the Orioles acquired a new second baseman since injuries limited Roberts to just 59 games last season.  In his stead the Orioles played Wigginton, Julio Lugo, Robert Andino, and Scott Moore, which led to almost no offensive production and below average defense. While the injuries are a continuing concern for Roberts, he proved that if healthy he can be very effective. He posted a .340 wOBA which while being a bit low for him, is still very impressive for a middle infielder. He played above average defense and in just over one third of the season posted a 1.5 WAR (by comparison the replacement players were basically all to the negative, making it an almost neutral output for the Orioles). If healthy and if the defense stays on the positive side Roberts should see his WAR value in the 4.5-5.0 range, and should be no worse than a 3.0+. That is a huge jump in value from last season and a big key for the Orioles.

Shortstop:

Last year: Cesar Izturis handled the majority of the shortstop duties and flashed a very good glove like usual. He ended up with a 5.1 UZR rating which left him tied for 6th among qualified shortstops. Unfortunately Izturis’ bat was his downfall as he posted a wOBA of .248, which led to a WAR of -0.5. While Izturis flashed great leather, his bat in the lineup was just about as bad as having a pitcher hit.

This Year: The Orioles traded for J.J. Hardy from the Twins and should be quite pleased with the results. Hardy missed about a third of the year last year, but still managed a WAR of 2.4. And despite the missed time Hardy posted a UZR of 8.1 which is very impressive. Hardy grades out as a better defender than Izturis and a much better hitter. Early in his career Hardy put up big offensive numbers, but those have declined in the past few years. Hardy’s worst offensive season is still much better than what Izturis put up last year, and I could even see a slight increase in Hardy’s numbers. Regardless of where they fall, he will be more valuable that Izzy (who will return as his backup), and if he stays healthy he should be good for a 3.5+ WAR.

Third Base:

Last Year: Miguel Tejada and rookie Josh Bell split time at third base with Tejada playing 93 games before he was traded and Bell 40 games down the stretch (Wiggington and others played there as well). Tejada didn’t take well to third base where he was a -6.5 UZR and had a .295 wOBA. That led to a -0.1 WAR during his time with the O’s. Bell actually handled himself well defensively for the Orioles with a respectable 2.9 UZR. That was an encouraging sign considering defense was never his strong suit. What wasn’t an encouraging sign was his offense (which is supposed to be his strength). In 161 plate appearances Bell managed just a .228 wOBA, and flashed very little power. Now long term it isn’t a huge deal as he still has a bright future, but Bell probably needs at least some time in the minors to work out his issues.

This Year: While Mark Reynolds won’t bring any Brooks Robinson comparisons, but he should stabilize the hot corner for the Orioles. While Reynolds has never been a great defender, he did post his best UZR last season at 1.7, and if he continues keeping it on the positive side it will be a huge boost for the Orioles. Reynolds real value lies in his bat where he has big time power and should hit 35-40 home runs. Now some of his other skills declined last year and he hit an anemic .198 and posted a .328 wOBA (which would have been a big improvement than the O’s number last season), but that could be very fixable. He will never be a complete hitter like an Albert Pujols, but he should be a good impact bat for the O’s. If his defense remains to the good, I could see his bat rebounding to the point where he’d be a 4.0 WAR player. My guess is he will be slightly less valuable than that, but he will be a major upgrade over the Orioles production from last season.

Analysis: These moves might be panned by some, or not thought of as significant but the Orioles infield should be vastly improved this season. Not only will they be better (and it would have been hard to be worse), but they will be more balanced as well. Lee and Hardy are very good defenders at their positions, that should save a number of runs. Even if Roberts defense slightly decreases back to his norm, it is better than Ty Wiggington playing 2nd base. Reynolds is the one non-defender, but he also has the highest offensive upside. All around these are great moves for the Orioles and should help ensure that they finish out of the A.L. East basement (and in some divisions would challenge for a title).

Why Billy Butler Makes Perfect Sense To The Orioles

December 24, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

After reading MLBTR’s discussion last night regarding Billy Butler, I came away thinking that he would be a great fit for the Baltimore Orioles (though lets be honest he’d be a great fit for just about every team in baseball). With his impressive hit tool, he would be a perfect compliment to the more free swinging Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy, who were already acquired via trade this offseason. Butler would balance out the strikeouts and add an another bat*(editor’s note: Originally I wrote that he was a LH hitter, sorry for the mistake) to a fairly potent, yet underrated lineup. While the Orioles could end up just signing either Adam LaRoche or Derek Lee, Butler could be the impact hitter they have chased this off season. The Orioles don’t have a long term answer at 1B, and although Butler isn’t a great defender, he is a better option than anything the Orioles have.

Now two problems with any Oriole trade attempt would be their lack of top end talent in their farm system and their unwillingness to trade any of their top end pitchers. That 2nd issue might not be too much of a problem for the Royals since they are stocked deep with (everything) front-end pitching prospects. The Orioles could provide an interesting package of both major league and minor league positional players. There might not be any true ‘stars’ in the mix, but there should be enough young, upside, controllable talent to intrigue the Royals. Here is a 5 player package that might land Butler:

Felix Pie: Pie is a streaky player and by no means a star, but he is still a young controllable outfielder who can play any OF spot. He doesn’t offer much power, but he does have a line-drive stroke that could translate into 10-15 HR’s and a high number of doubles. He can offer good insurance for CF if newly acquired Lorenzo Cain fails or shows he’s not ready. He can also play LF in case the Royals move Alex Gordon, or maybe they can shift him over to RF (or even DH with Butler’s departure). Pie has 3 years of team control remaining, but shouldn’t cost too much in arbitration. He will help bridge the gap until the Royals top prospect depth is ready.

Josh Bell: Bell was once considered the Orioles third baseman of the future, but with the Mark Reynolds trade he is now more expendable. His first taste of the majors didn’t go quite as planned, but he still has a bright major league future. He won’t hit for a high average, but he possesses big time power, and should hit for 30+ home runs down the road. Although the Royals have uber-prospect Mike Moustakas almost ready at the hot corner, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to invest in Bell as well. Neither is considered great defensively, so whichever is worse can move to DH and still be a big time bat in the Royals lineup. Bell still has 6 years of team control remaining, and could give Kansas City at least one bat in their lineup while they wait for their top prospects to arrive.

Xavier Avery: If there is one thing the Royals truly lack in their system it is center field depth. While Pie and Lorenzo Cain would help fill that void, Avery could very well be the real longterm answer in center. Avery is still raw as a player, but his tools and upside make him a very good prospect. He is still two full years away, but that works out well for Kansas City since it gives them time to evaluate Cain for their long term answer in CF. If Cain works out, then having a young talented CF prospect who is blocked, is far from the worst thing to have when trying to make a trade.

Mycal Givens: Givens is a very promising young infield prospect in an Orioles system filled with young infield prospects. Givens projects as either a SS or 2B with good offensive and defensive skills. He is the type of guy who could develop into a quality number 2 hitter in the big leagues. He will need 3-4 years to develop, but the upside and potential are there. Being that far away from the majors actually could be a plus for the Royals as it will give them time to evaluate their upper middle infield prospects. Also, with so many of their top guys ready in the next year or two, Givens can help restock their lower minors depth and extend the Royals bright future. The last thing Kansas City wants is to have all their prospects graduate to the majors, with no minor league depth behind them. Givens will help give the Royals options for the future and if they are patient he should reach his potential.

Caleb Joseph: To call 2010 a down year for Joseph would be a gross understatement as he was awful in his first year of AA. Prior to that year Joesph projected as a future above average starting catcher, with good offensive skills and solid defensive potential. Joseph failed to display any of that last season when his average tanked and his defense was below average. Although he struggled mightily, Joseph is not without his prospect value and could be a nice find as a 5th piece of a trade. Joseph could be a good bounce back candidate, and in limited work in the AFL (41 AB’s), he posted a line of .390/.438/.512. Those numbers are obviously inflated, but it does give some hope that Joseph could be back on track this season.

Analysis: Bell, Avery and Givens would give the Royals three high upside young players, who all have one flaw keeping them away from being a top prospect. At the same time Bell and Pie help bridge the gap for the Royals offensively this season as they wait for all their top prospects to arrive. In addition, they help give Kansas City options to potentially make another deal if Alex Gordon proves he can hit this season. Joesph, helps fill a depth need, and if he gets on track could be a solid starting catcher for the Royals in a couple of years. There isn’t a Top 50 prospect (player) in the bunch, but my guess is Butler’s lack of 30 HR power and limited defense will keep them from landing a really great prospect. It would be a significant return for the Royals, one that I’m sure Oriole fans will hate to see, but it makes sense for Baltimore. While the loss of all those players may sting, none are truly prohibitive and the Orioles would add a true impact bat.

Tuesday’s Morning Links:

December 14, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Life After Favre Doesn’t Look Promising In Minnesota: In the Vikings first full game without Brett Favre they got a sneak preview, of what next season will bring and it wasn’t pretty. Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb combined for 17 of 35 passing for 126 yards (3.5 yards per attempt) one interception and a rating just over 46. While Brett Favre wasn’t doing a great job for the Vikings this year, he gave them an infinitely better chance to win than Jackson/Webb. Minnesota will need to address the quarterback position in a big way this offseason, and it could be a long rebuilding process if they don’t find the right guy.

Orioles Resign Koji Uehara For $3 million: The Baltimore Orioles made another good move this offseason, after already trading for Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy. Uehara found himself as a back end reliever in the Orioles bullpen last season. He’s proven a little injury prone so far during his 2 year MLB career, but a one year deal with a club option is a safe move for the Orioles. Baltimore still needs to add a first baseman/DH and at least one more reliever but so far it is looking like a strong offseason in Charm City.

A’s Are Close To Signing Matsui After Agreeing With McCarthy: The Oakland A’s are close to making two solid additions in pitcher Brandon McCarthy and DH Hideki Matsui. McCarthy was a former top pitching prospect of the White Sox/Rangers who never reached his potential. McCarthy is a good buy low option for the A’s. He is still a young arm who could thrive in Oakland’s spacious ballpark. Matsui is another good signing for the A’s who were one of the worst power hitting teams in the league last season. While Matsui might not be a 30 HR guys any longer (esp. not in that ballpark), he is a solid offensive upgrade for the A’s. With the additions of Matsui and David DeJesus the A’s offense is improving fast. With an improved offense and a quality pitching staff the A’s could make a run at the division this year.

American League Teams’ Christmas/Winter Meetings Wish List

December 3, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With baseball’s Winter Meetings starting next week and X-mas just around the corner, I thought it was a good time to look at what is on every team’s wish list this December. If a team is expected to make any significant signings or trades I’ll feature them. But if they are likely sitting on the sidelines this winter, then they only have three wishes: good health, development by their prospects, and bargain shopping in 2011 before the season starts.

First up American League:

AL East:

New York Yankees:

Cliff Lee: There is little surprise on what tops their wish list, as landing an ace starting pitcher is their top priority.Lee is really the only guy available who fits the bill. New York needs to hope their money and winning reputation sway Lee away from his other suitors.

Derek Jeter: The Yankees negotiations with their ‘Captain’ haven’t been too pretty and have in fact served as more of a distraction than anything else. The Yankees need Jeter to come to his senses quickly and sign his deal, before it looks any worse than it already is.

A.J. Burnett: New York invested big money into Burnett two years ago and already they are regretting their decision. Burnett needs to figure out his issues quick, as he can’t afford to start off the season badly. Not only will it hurt the Yankees playoff hopes, but a bad start will doom him in New York, meaning the Yankees may have to eat his contract just to appease the fans.

Boston Red Sox:

Crawford or Werth: Boston is in hot pursuit of the top two free agent outfielders and they need to land one if the Yankees make a big move (i.e. signing Lee). Either OF will fit in well in Boston and continue to make that lineup one of the best in the league.

Gonzalez or Fielder: While it is a bit quite of late, I still think the Red Sox will end up with either Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder from the trade market this offseason. Both are impending free agents and likely to be dealt by their current team. Gonzalez is a better fit for Boston given his defense, and higher likelihood of negotiating a more team friendly extension. If Boston lands one of them, plus one of the top outfielders, they should pass the Yankees for the best lineup in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Trade Jason Bartlett: This could happen in the next few days, as Tampa does not want to pay Bartlett’s arbitration salary this coming season. While Bartlett won’t bring back a major haul, they should expect to get back a solid middle reliever, who is young and cost controlled.

Rebuild Their Bullpen: The Rays have a number of free agent defections from their bullpen and given their budget, they will likely have to build from within or through trades. In addition to the likelihood of  a Bartlett for middle reliever swap, I’d look for Tampa to make a bigger deal with their considerable prospect depth to add a back of the bullpen arm.

Add a Quality Bat: With holes at 1B, LF (could be filled by rookie Desmond Jennings) and DH, the Rays could use at least one bat to keep them on the cusp of contention. Since the free agent market is likely too expensive, the Rays will likely look for a bat on the trade market. I would count them out of the Gonzalez/Fielder markets given their salary price tags, and what it would cost in terms of prospects. Names like Billy Butler, Josh Willingham, Luke Scott could all be on their radar this offseason.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Make a Splash: The Blue Jays might be rebuilding, but this team was competitive without any of their top prospects making a significant impact. I think Toronto will make a bold move such as trading for Greinke or Justin Upton (Billy Butler could be on their wish list as well). Trading for a star caliber player could really make this team a threat in the East, though I don’t think they should give up too much in the way of young talent.

Find a First Baseman: While Adam Lind is a distinct internal possibility, I would expect the Jays to find a new first baseman for next season. Trading for Billy Butler should be high on their list, but if they decide to move some of their young talent for a different star, the Blue Jays still have options on the free agent market (though they are dwindling fast). Adam LaRoche or Derek Lee would be good fits in Toronto, as could Carlos Pena if they expect a bounce back year.

Add a 3B/2B: Right now the Jays have a hole at 3B that they could fill by moving 2B Aaron Hill there, but that would only create an issue up the middle. The free agent market won’t yield any great 3B (unless they buck up to sign Beltre), so a trade could be an option. They could also look to bring back Orlando Hudson to fill 2B and move Hill over. Hudson wouldn’t be a long term fix, but he’d be a solid short term addition.

Add some relievers: The Jays are losing a couple quality relievers in the free agent market and will either need to add some arms via trade or from the market. Given their young staff, and the likely ascension of some young prospects, they could use a good bullpen to help protect their young arms.

Baltimore Orioles:

Add a 1B/DH bat: The O’s have struck out with two of their top free agent options, Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn so far this offseason and they are likely to miss out on another one, as Paul Konerko is likely to resign with the White Sox. The 1B/DH market is drying up fast with Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena, Derek Lee and Lance Berkman the only real options left. The O’s need to land one of them, but at this point they need to make sure they aren’t overpaying, since none of them are true stars. Baltimore should look to focus their money on their other needs such as 3B.

Go Hard After Adrian Beltre: At this point the O’s are going to have to overpay to land a star, and Beltre is probably the best chance the O’s have at landing one. Now they aren’t alone in the market and it will cost quite a bit, but Beltre could be worth it. He is a very good defender at 3B, and at 32 should be productive for another couple of years. It still could be a pipe dream, but Baltimore needs to be aggressive.

Add Some Relief Pitching: The Orioles have a promising young staff, but their bullpen was a mess last year. They need to add a couple free agent arms to turn that into a strength and help protect their rotation.

Add a Shortstop: It is not a good year to be needing a shortstop, but the Orioles need to find someway to get better production out of that position. Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy head their list, but other options could become available. Who ever they find, Baltimore needs to ensure they offer some production from that area.

AL Central:

Chicago White Sox:

Bring Back Konerko: With the addition of Adam Dunn, the White Sox finally have the hitter who can help protect Paul Konerko in the middle of the lineup. Now they just need to ensure Konerko is in that lineup. I fully expect a deal to get done in the next couple of days, which will fully cover their DH/1B positions.

Find a LF: I know a lot of people like Juan Pierre for his speed and defense, but he is a bit of a liability in LF. He just doesn’t get on base enough or have any power to speak of to justify a corner outfield spot. While his defense was exceptional in LF, you have to get better than a .312 wOBA from your LF if you want to be a contender. There aren’t any real free agent options available, but don’t be shocked if the White Sox target someone like Josh Willingham or Luke Scott. Alex Gordon could also be an option if they go for a more unproven player.

Add Relief Pitching: In their pursuit for adding Dunn and Konerko, the White Sox made a tough choice by releasing long time closer Bobby Jenks to save some money. While fiscally it makes some sense, it leaves that bullpen a little short right now. A couple relievers should be acquired by trade or through free agency to help offset the loss.

Kansas City Royals:

Make the Best Deal(s) Possible: The Royals are in an enviable position with the best farm system in baseball, and a number of quality trade-able pieces. The Royals have the best SP (Greinke), Closer (Joakim Soria) and one of the top bats (Butler) on the trade market. In addition to their big names, the Royals have Alex Gordon and Robinson Tejada, who are both good 2nd tier trade targets. Now I wouldn’t expect to see all 5 dealt before the start of the season, but at least 2 should be moved by then, and all of them could be gone by the start of 2012. The Royals need to make the best trades possible and should target middle infield help, outfielders (in particular center fielders), frontline starting pitching, and maybe a 3B. Kansas City can basically name their own price.

Detroit Tigers:

The Tigers have already done most of their heavy lifting this offseason, with Victor Martinez their top prize. I don’t think they are done just yet, but they might not make any more major moves. If they do here is what they might target:

OF help: The Tigers are rumored to still be in the Werth and Crawford sweepstakes, but I’m not too sure they can swing a deal. My guess is they will look to the trade market for a quality OF bat (usual suspects, Willingham, Scott etc.) to fill their need.

Relief Pitching: They have already added Benoit, but my guess is they add another solid arm before the start of the season. I don’t see them adding a starter, but I think their staff could use some help.

Minnesota Twins:

The Twins aren’t supposed to be too active this offseason beyond resigning Jim Thome and agreeing to a deal with the Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who can play either SS or 2B. The Twins could be trading J.J. Hardy, though that is far from being set in stone. The one thing the Twins could be looking at is making a big trade:

Make a Splash: In back-to-back years the Twins have gotten swept out of the Playoffs by the New York Yankees, so they need to find a way to get better if they want to advance further in 2011. The Twins have a quality system, so they do have the pieces to swing a major deal or two. Given their depth across the board, they could target any number of positions. Starting pitching is a top priority, but I don’t see them getting in the Greinke sweepstakes (more because I really don’t see the Royals trading him in the division unless the Twins vastly overpay).

Cleveland Indians:

Cleveland falls into the category of teams who are really not expected to do anything significant this offseason, and they will be bargain shopping this year.

AL West:

Texas Rangers:

Sign Cliff Lee: The Rangers are the Yankees toughest competition in the Lee Sweepstakes and if the money is close enough he could prefer to stay in Texas. If the Rangers land Lee, then they won’t have much additional money to spend, but they should be pretty well set for another World Series run.

Trade for Zack Greinke: If the Rangers fail to land Lee, they should be one of the favorites to land Greinke. It will cost quite a bit in prospects, but his team friendly contract will allow the Rangers to add another free agent or two.

Add A DH: Vlad is gone, so it is time for Texas to find another decent designated hitter to insert into their lineup. The usual 1B suspects could be options, though most likely could find an actual 1B job. Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui could fit, but neither would have any impact in the field. The could go down the trade route for a Billy Butler (especially if they sign Lee) or a Luke Scott. Both are fairly cheap, while having the ability to help in the field as well.

Los Angeles Angels:

Carl Crawford: The Angels are expected to go all-in for Crawford and basically make him an offer he can’t refuse. Crawford would be a huge free agent signing for the Angels and it would drastically improve their chances for reclaiming the AL West. If they miss out on Crawford, they will go hard after Werth, but he seems to be not nearly as high on their wish list.

Adrian Beltre: Whether they get Crawford or not, Beltre figures to be high on the Angels wish list. They need more power in their lineup and 3B is an issue for them. He won’t come cheap and it is possible that he and Crawford would cost to much, but the Angels should be a serious suitor for him.

Add Bench and Relief Depth: The Angels have a good lineup and starting rotation, but they need to add better depth to ensure that injuries don’t sink their season like last year. I’d look for them to have a couple known players on the bench/bullpen, as they look to build a playoff contender.

Oakland A’s:

The A’s have already done some of their hard work this offseason by adding David DeJesus to their outfield, but they still have a ways to go. For the most part I’d expect them to fill their needs from within, but they could make at least one significant move.

Add a DH: The A’s seem poised to try power hitting 1B/DH prospect Chris Carter in the outfield (not too sure if that will work), and add a legitimate designated hitter this offseason. It is no shock that the A’s need to generate power, but it might make more sense to play Carter at DH and add an OF. Right now I don’t see that happening, so I’m guessing they end up signing one of the 1B/DH types on the market this year.

Outside of that 3B and RP could be an issue, but one that might not be fully addressed this offseason.

Seattle Mariners:

The Mariners are expected to sit quietly this offseason as they look to rebuild. One of two moderate signings may occur in January, but I think that is all you will see right now.

Check back later as I look at the NL’s X-Mas/Winter Meetings Wish List!


What The AL East Teams Are Most Thankful For:

November 26, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

There is little doubt that there are ‘haves and have nots’ in baseball as there are in any sport, but every team has at least one player, person or thing to be thankful for this holiday season. Here is a fun list of what each team in the AL East has to be the most thankful for:

New York Yankees: New York obviously has a lot going for them going forward. With a massive payroll, an All-Star lineup, and a very good farm system, the future is bright for the Yankees. The thing the Yankees are most thankful for though is the willingness of Cliff Lee to maybe come to the Yankees.

As good as the Yankees are, they have some serious holes in their rotation that will prevent them from competing in the tough AL East. Although the Yankees seemingly have unlimited resources, if Cliff Lee doesn’t come to New York, the Yankees don’t have a fall back plan. The starting pitching on the free agent market is extremely thin past Lee. No one else on the market is better than a number 3 starter, and a couple of the better options Carl Pavano and Javier Vazquez, aren’t likely to be welcomed back to New York with open arms. The trade market isn’t any more promising for the Yankees as they don’t seem to be a fit for many of the top arms out there. Zack Greinke has a no trade clause for the Yankees and seems to have little interest in waiving it, and the next couple of quality starters potentially on the trade market are from the Rays (possibly the Red-Sox if Dice K is available) and I don’t see them helping fill the Yankees ‘needs’.

The Yankees need Cliff Lee maybe more than possibly any other free agent in their history (unless another top pitcher comes on the market). He might not come cheap, but the fact that he is listening and is a favorite to sign in NY is promising.

Boston Red Sox: Boston is in a similar position with the Yankees, with money to spend, a great team, and a top notch farm system, but the thing they have to be most thankful for is good health.

Last year the Red Sox missed Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Mike Cameron, Mike Lowell, and Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett all missed significant time with injury. Despite so many starters missing time, the Red Sox still were competitive all season and finished with an 89-73 record (they would have only been 1 game out in the West). While the Red Sox will be looking to make some changes this offseason, the most important thing to them is getting healthy. Youkilis, Pedroia, Beckett and Ellsbury all are important cogs for Boston as they look to get back to the post season. Luckily, while all those injuries were devastating at the time none should have a long term impact on the Red Sox. Continued good health will be the key for the Red Sox this season, but right now things are looking up.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have a lot of young talented players, but there is little doubt what (who) they are most thankful for, Buck Showalter. Baltimore finished 66-96 last season split between three managers, but more than half of those wins (34) came when Showalter was at the helm.

In 57 games under Showalter the Orioles went 34-23, meaning the Orioles would have 97 games based on their winning percentage under him. That would have been good enough to win the AL East (as well as being the best record in baseball). Showalter also went 14-13 against the AL East (they went 10-35 before he started). Now I don’t think they were legitimately a 97 win team, but they also weren’t a legitimate 66 win team either.

Showalter completely revitalized that team and gives the Orioles hope going forward. They have a number of young talented pieces and Buck seems to be making the most out them. The addition of Showalter could be exactly what the Orioles need, as they look to become an competitive franchise once again.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays had the home run king last year as well as one of the best power teams in the league, but they are most thankful for their G.M. Alex Anthopoulos.

The Blue Jays had lost Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen and Alex Rios from the summer of 2009 to the beginning of last season, yet somehow the Blue Jays still managed to win 85 games. What’s even more impressive than their win total is the collection of young talent that Anthopoulos has picked up. The young Blue Jays G.M. was in the unenviable position of having to trade their top player, Halladay, when his value was the lowest. Despite not having the leverage he would have wanted, Anthopoulos made a very good trade for the Blue Jays, and remained active all offseason to rebuild the Blue Jays farm. Combined with his shrewd trades and signings, as well as a top notch draft the Blue Jays ‘rebuilding’ process actually made Toronto a better team than they were before.

Tamp Bay Rays: The Rays won the division and if not for Cliff Lee and those pesky Rangers, very well could have been in the World Series. Things though aren’t all rosy in Tampa as they need to slash their payroll, which will mean the loss of a number of star players including All-Star Carl Crawford. While it looks bleak, I wouldn’t be too worried about Tampa as they have plenty of talent on the way from their bountiful farm system, which needs to be number 1 on their thankful list.

They Rays have already added a number of young players these last couple years, but should add a couple more uber-talents this season with RHP Jeremy Hellickson and OF Desmond Jennings leading the way. Hellickson is the best pitcher in the minors and saw a little bit of time with the Rays last season. He profiles as a potential number 1 and should at least be a 2 or a 3 starter on a playoff caliber team. Jennings is one of the top young outfielders in the minors and he is capable of playing any position. He will likely start by replacing Crawford, but could eventually move over to CF and become the Rays lead-off hitter. In addition to the two stars, I’d expect to at least a couple more arms throughout the season, with LHP Jake McGee likely to start the year in their bullpen. The Rays system is loaded that they can not only absorb their impending losses, but make a couple big trades as well.

As I said, at the top every team has something to be thankful for this holiday weekend, but these are what I think the 5 AL East teams have to be most thankful for. What do you think?

MLB End of the Year Awards: ROY and Manager of the Year

October 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Rookie Of The Year:

AL: Brian Matusz-SP Orioles: While there are some other candidates like the Tigers Austin Jackson, the Rangers Neftali Feliz and the Twins Danny Valencia, Matusz is the most talented rookie in the field. While his 10-12 record with an ERA over 4.00 doesn’t look the greatest, he did pitch in the A.L. East this year with the Orioles’ offense, defense, and bullpen supporting him. Matusz proved himself a future ace, and that says a lot more than a solid CF like Jackson, a closer like Feliz and a decent 3B like Valencia.

NL: Jason Heyward-OF Braves: The number of quality candidates for the National League ROY is incredible, as guys like Pedro Alvarez, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Drew Storen, Neil Walker, Ian Desmond, and Jose Tabata aren’t even in the conversation. And as impressive of a list of prospects as that, it might pale in comparison to the players that Heyward just beat out. Fellow N.L. East Rookies Ike Davis and Mike Stanton look to have bright futures, but couldn’t match Heyward’s overall numbers. Jamie Garcia came up with a big year for the Cards, but struggled some down the stretch. Giants catcher Buster Posey was probably Heyward’s biggest competition, but with the Giants starting him out in the Minors this year, it was clear that Heyward is more valuable. Going forward Heyward (as are many of these guys) is a cornerstone for the Braves and a complete middle of the order hitter.

Manager of the Year:

AL: Joe Maddon Tampa Bay Rays: While I think an honorable mention should go to new Orioles skipper Buck Showalter, Joe Maddon wins this award based on what he has done all season. You can make a case for any of the playoff teams, for their manager to get the nod. Or even the Red Sox based on just how well they played despite the numerous injuries. Overall though I give this award to Maddon, who got the most out of his players each day. The Rays don’t have the budget to match up with the Yankees or Red Sox, but they ended up winning the division. Although no one debates that Maddon had plenty of talent to utilize, at the end of the day this is still a young team and Maddon did a great job getting the most out of them.

NL: Bud Black San Diego Padres: Black might be a surprising choice given the fact that his team missed the playoffs, but he is the most deserving candidate. While Dusty Baker’s Reds were a surprise team in the Central, and you can make the case for Bobby Cox in his final season ‘willing’ the Braves into the postseason, my pick is still Black. And I even agree with those who talk about how Charlie Manual dealt with a high number of major injuries was deserving, but its not nearly as impressive as what Black’s team did. The Padres weren’t expected to go anywhere this season as they had MLB’s second lowest payroll, and on top of that didn’t have the youth, talent or farm system of say a Florida Marlins team. There were only a handful of truly quality players on this team, and I didn’t think they would go anywhere. Had I fallen asleep through the entire season, and was told two separate stories of the Padres season; In one they finish one game away from trying the Giants and forcing a playoff and in another they finish last not only in the N.L. West but in all of baseball, I would have immediately chosen the latter.  This team wasn’t supposed to come close to competing but where in the race right up until the very last day. That to me is pretty well deserving of the Manager of the Year award.

DC Area Professional Sports Teams are Notably Bad

July 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

ESPN the magazine released an article ranking the 122 franchises in major American sports (NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL). These rankings are based on the following criteria: bang for the buck, fan relations, ownership, affordability, stadium experience, players, coaching and title track. You can read more here: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/teamrankings.

Prior to reading this article, I had always felt that DC area teams were constantly overlooked in conversations discussing the worst professional sports teams in one area. Many Philadelphia sports fans believe that they have it bad – that their teams are cursed. Wrong. Washington DC is safe haven to putrid sports teams, and this can now be quantified. DC area teams ranked as following:

11. Washington Capitals

94. Washington Nationals

102. Baltimore Orioles

105. Washington Redskins

120. Washington Wizards

I’ve included the Orioles because many people that root for DC teams also root for the Orioles as they were the only baseball team in the area prior to the Nats’ arrival.

As this list points out, aside from the Caps, Washington DC area sports rank near the bottom of the league in every major professional sport. The Washington Wizards are regarded literally as the third worst franchise in professional sports.

What’s most appalling is the Redskins’ embarrassing placement on this list. The ‘Skins are a rich and storied franchise with a fan base that sweeps across the Carolinas, yet they are easily one of the worst franchises in all of sports. It is clear that this is testament to Dan Snyder’s failures as owner of a once proud and distinguished franchise.

The only person in the DC area that may appreciate this list would be Ted Leonsis. He is the owner of the Washington Capitals, and he recently purchased the lifeless Washington Wizards. It will speak volumes of Leonsis, if the Wizards become a respectable franchise in the near future.

Finally, the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals may deserve a flier on their rankings. The Orioles have been mediocre or worse for over a decade now, which is unacceptable, but at the same time, they play in the AL East with the Yankees and Red Sox in a league that is uncapped. The Orioles do not work within an even playing field – but at the same time, the Tampa Bay Rays have clawed their way to respectability. The Nationals, on the other hand, do not face as much of an uphill battle, but they are still a new franchise. With Stephen Strasburg emerging in the league, the Nats’ future looks much brighter.

In any regard, this list is invaluable as it quantifies just how miserable the DC sports teams are, and it should be a surprise for many people to see.

Is Bobby Valentine the right fit for Baltimore?

June 15, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Multiple media reports have come out in the last few days linking former manager Bobby Valentine to the Orioles vacancy. While Valentine is a big name option, I’m not so sure this is the right move for the team.

The Orioles are in disarray and definitely could use a strong leader to right the ship. But I’m not sure if mid-June is the best time to find that leader. Instead of having a long, comprehensive manager search you are now limiting yourself to people who don’t have a job, or those who are in your organization. While Valentine would probably still be on the short list this offseason, he won’t be the only name on it. There are always top young managing prospects available every season, which might not be a bad thing considering the youth movement and developmental time the Orioles need. They need a manager who knows how to get the most out of their talent and potential. Now that is not to say that Valentine couldn’t get a lot out of them, just to say he might not be at the top of the list. You also don’t know what other managers might be fired/resign/quit during the offseason. While it might be a bit more rare, you could pass up on an A-list manager this offseason by tying your organization to Valentine now.

Even if the Orioles truly believe Valentine is their number one choice regardless of who else may be available, I don’t think it makes much sense to bring him in as the every day manager now. For one thing he has no familiarity with the players, much less the minor league system. So while he will have all the scouting reports, and assistant coaches advice, he will be somewhat flying blind when making moves. Which is unfair to both Valentine and the team, as there is a much higher chance that those moves don’t work. In addition to being behind the curve in just about every area, Valentine will have to inherit not only the Orioles players, but their coaching staff as well. It’s bad enough that these guys are all in a lame duck position right now, but now they have to execute their jobs with Valentine in place.

Instead of rushing their manager search just to bring in a name, the Baltimore Orioles should focus on getting better on the field during this season. I think the problems they are having are more involved than just a new manager or coaching staff. They aren’t developing minor leaguers as they should (probably a good reason why their minor league managers shouldn’t be considered). And they right now have a talent deficiency and one that they can actually fix during the rest of the season. First they need to ensure they sign as many of their high upside draft picks as possible. Next, they need to be aggressive in the Latin American market this summer. An area they have long ignored, but are starting to make traction. Finally, they need to have a fire sale and trade away established Major League talent for young, high upside ball players. Guys like Millwood, Guthrie, Scott, Wigginton, as well as a few others should be on the block and moved. The Orioles know that even when those guys are producing, they aren’t a good team so they need to sell them while they can.

While this season has been ugly for Baltimore, their future is still fairly bright. They have a lot of young talent, and can easily add some more with the right deals. I think they should focus on the things they can control now, and worry about a new manager this offseason when the whole field is open to them.