The biggest surprise of this offseason so far is the report that the Arizona Diamondbacks are listening to offers for their young star outfielder Justin Upton. While every team in baseball should have some interest, it will be the most aggressive one that lands the future star. With any luck, that team will be the Washington Nationals. With Colby Rasmus seemingly off the trade market, the Nationals should go for another young star from that epic 2005 draft class.

What will it take: Players like Upton aren’t usually on the trade market so it is hard to peg his actual value, but it will be significant. Upton is just 23 years old and already has one All-Star game under his belt (2009). He has amazing power potential, and showed that in 2009 by slugging .532. His strikeout rate his high, but his walk rate is improving and is considered very good for a player in his early 20′s. In addition to his potential power Upton brings good speed to the table, which should account for 20+ steals a year and a handful of triples. Upton’s speed and strong arm makes him one of the better defensive corner outfielders, and he still has room to improve.

Upton had already signed a long term extension with the Diamondbacks, and he has 5 years remaining on that deal. He has about $50 million remaining on his contract, though most of it is back-loaded into the final two years of the deal. If he keeps developing like everyone expects him to, he will be well worth the money and a cornerstone piece for whatever team acquires him.

Given his talent, contract, age, and potential Upton will cost quite a bit. I would imagine it will cost between 5-7 quality, cost controlled, young prospects. Now it is known the Diamondbacks want both major league ready talent and prospects, but as for what they will actually accept, little is known. In the untouchable department the Nationals should only have Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg (the 2010 draft picks are ineligible to be traded at this time, so no Harper involved). In the ‘tough to swallow, but hope to not have to ‘give up’ department, the Nationals should try to keep Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen. All four have bright young futures with the Nats, but if one needed to be included in a deal to land Upton, it very well could be worth it. Outside of those 6 players though, anyone on the Nationals major or minor league teams should be able to be included. Now Josh Willingham and Sean Burnett have a lot of trade value, but likely won’t interest the D-backs too much as they look to rebuild (though they could be part of a 3-way trade).

So WHO Can the Nats Offer?:

My 6 player package would include prospects: C Derek Norris, 1B Chris Marrero, SP Brad Peacock. Along with young major leaguers LHP Ross Detwiler, OF Roger Bernadina (Nyjer Morgan would also be an option), and RP Tyler Clippard. (*Editors note: I originally had this as a 6 player deal, but am now amending it to include a 7th prospect. I am also going to put into a play a 5 player deal as well.) The last prospect I give them a choice between OF Micheal Burgess or OF Eury Perez

Derek Norris: Norris is quickly becoming one of the best catching prospects in the game as he has great plate discipline and big time power. He still needs to work on his defensive aspects of being a catcher (mainly blocking balls and calling the game), but he has all the tools to develop into an All-Star quality catcher. He still is a couple of years away (at least 2), but is easily a top 40 prospect in the game right now.

Chris Marrero: Marrero was the Nats 1st round pick in 2006, and has major power potential. He hasn’t unlocked it totally yet, which along with his below average defense likely makes him more of a league average 1B than a star. He is just 22, so the power could still come and being at Double-A he is nearly major league ready. Arizona could use another young 1B, and Marrero would be a solid option. He likely needs another year of seasoning, but the power potential is there.

Brad Peacock: Peacock at 22 has developed into one of the Nationals top pitching prospects. He just made it to Double-A at the end of last season, so he will likely need at least 2 more full years before he is ready. But he has the profile of a quality 3rd starter. He has a big time fastball that he registers a number of stikeouts with, but he still needs to work on his control, as walks have gotten him into trouble. He has a bright future ahead of him and gives Arizona a quality young arm.

Tyler Clippard: If the Nationals are going to keep Storen, they will have to part with Clippard. Clippard has redefined himself as a very good back of the bullpen pitcher. He has the potential to close and is a big time strikeout guy, but still walks more batters than you’d like to see for your closer. Clippard was inconsistent at times, but part of that could be from overuse. While he was a former starter, Clippard’s 91.0 innings pitched were 2nd among relievers. With 5 years of team control remaining and plenty of talent, Clippard is an attractive piece for the the Diamondbacks.

Ross Detwiler: Detwiler was the Nationals 1st round pick in 2007, and he has faced mixed success. Detwiler has done very well in the minors, though injuries have slowed down his progress. His stints in the majors have had mixed results as well, though little can be gleaned from them just yet. Detwiler no longer has the profile of a quality number 2 pitcher, but still has the upside of a very good number 3. Being a lefty and just at the age of 25, I think Detwiler still has a good bit of value on the trade market, though probably not the headliner he once was. Arizona has been collecting young starters and Detwiler would be another quality addition to that group. And with 5 years of team control remaining, I’d expect the Diamondbacks to be very interested.

Roger Bernadina: Bernadina has been around in the Nationals system forever, but he is just 26 years old. He finally showed himself worthy of regular playing time, until his numbers collapsed in the last couple months of the season. He has the ability to play any outfield position, though he defensively profiles best in a corner spot. Bernadina’s game is based on speed, but he has enough power to add 30 doubles and 15 home runs a year (as well as a 5+ triples). Consistency is his overall problem, and it is quite possible that he just needs regular playing time in one position as opposed to platooning. Bernadina has 4 more years of service time, and will help replace the loss of Upton in the outfield.

Micheal Burgess: Burgess has big time power, and has shown some signs of developing into a quality starting corner outfielder, but he still needs some work. He has the arm for right field but not the greatest instincts to play there. He still needs to work on cutting down his strikeouts and hitting better breaking pitches. He is in Double-A and still just 22 years old so he has plenty of potential left. He needs at least a year and half before he is ready, but could end up being a starter in Arizona by that time.

Eury Perez: Perez is one of the Nationals most exciting young prospects and he was even named to the Futures Game last season. He is a very good defensive centerfielder with exceptional speed. He is still pretty streaky at the plate and has about zero power to fall back on, but he can fly. If he learns better plate discipline and takes a few more walks he could be the starting caliber CF/leadoff man that everyone expects him to be. He is still a bit raw and is most likely 3-4 years away, but he has great potential.

My Five player package: C Derek Norris, SP Jordan Zimmermann, RP Tyler Clippard, 1B Chris Marrero (Burgess, Perez or Peacock could all be options), OF Roger Bernadina

Jordan Zimmermann: The Nationals don’t want to give up Zimmermann, given his potential to be a very good number 2 starter in this league, but very well may need to in order to get Upton. Zimmermann is coming off Tommy John surgery, which actually could make him more appealing since the success rate (and health) of pitchers coming off TJ is very high. He has great stuff, and good command. He is still developing but would easily headline the D-Backs rotation.

Is it enough? Maybe, the Nationals are giving up some quality players here, but very little in terms of sure things. It is a good deal for Arizona, but not likely a great deal. It could take a 7th player to get this deal done, or even Storen replacing Clippard to make it work. And although Desmond and Espinosa are part of the Nats future, a deal might not get done without them (though that might cut it down to 5 players). A lot will depend on what other offers are on the table and just how inclined the Diamondbacks are to move Upton. I don’t think they’d take this deal off the bat, but that it is a solid starting point. You could see this expanded with the Diamondbacks including Mark Reynolds (who is due $13 million over the next two years), and the Nationals include a couple more young pitchers. Reynolds has big time power, but horrible plate recongition, and he strikesout more than Adam Dunn. His contract could be prohibitive for the Diamondbacks as they look to rebuild, and the Nationals could plug him in at 1B, while they look to rebuild. Arizona wants to move him and could tie him to Upton, to ensure they don’t have to pay any money to do so. Regardless of how it breaks down, the Nationals should be open to any and all counter-offers.

As for the 5-player deal giving up Zimmermann would be tough, but necessary. As good as Zimmermann could be, he hasn’t reached that potential yet (whereas Upton is already there). Now I’d try to retain both Detwiler and Peacock, to keep the Nats pitching as well stocked as possible, but would be willing to include one of them if necessary. Given Perez’s he would be the first position player I’d want to keep out of the deal, with Burgess a close second. I know it would be a tougher deal for Nats fans to get their heads around, but I think Upton is worth that type of package.

Why the Nats Should Have an Interest: Now Nationals fans will look at this proposed deal and likely be very upset, since it involves a number of their ‘big name’ young players. But Justin Upton has limitless potential, and there was a distinct reason he was drafted 1st overall in 2005. Two things that work in the Nationals favor in terms of going after Upton are the fact that Upton is from Virginia, and the familiarity amongst the Nationals brass with Justin Upton.

Upton has a limited no-trade clause (4 teams), but it is unlikely the Nationals are one of those teams (or even if they were, that they couldn’t convince him to come to D.C.), given the fact that he grew up in Virginia. Upton grew up in Chesapeake Virginia, and his older brother B.J. played on the same AAU team as Nationals star Ryan Zimmerman (Justin was too young to play with them, but was the bat boy), so he has some familiarity with the Nationals star. In addition to his being from the area and knowing Zimmerman, the Nationals front office knows Upton very well. General Manger Mike Rizzo was the Assistant GM in Arizona when Upton was drafted, and other members of the Nationals front office also were with the Diamondbacks at that time. They more than any other team know just how special Upton can be, and what he can do going forward. With Mike Rizzo looking to add star talent this offseason, Upton could be at the top of his target list.

With Upton, Zimmerman, and Harper, the Nationals would have an exceptional young corps that would be supplemented with C Wilson Ramos, Desmond and Espinosa. If the Nationals want to build a future contender, adding a talent like Upton is a must. Now trading for him would make it harder to trade for a young pitcher, but there really aren’t many good options on the market right now. In fact a big trade to acquire someone like Upton could actually increase the chances of Cliff Lee signing in D.C. (slightly), if he believes the Nationals are truly looking to add All-Star talent around him. Even if it doesn’t help land a big free agent this year, it is the right move for Washington.

Brady Finally Gets His Mega Deal: Yesterday it was reported that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots agreed to terms on a 4 year $72 million deal. There are $48.5 million in guarantees, and will keep him locked up until after the 2014 season. The deal will average $18 million per year, making Brady the highest paid player in the NFL. While I’m sure his average, guarantees and total value will be eclipsed when Peyton Manning signs his extension, it is a major commitment for the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how this impacts their cap situation going forward (when there is a salary cap again), especially with Randy Moss a free agent next season. While the Patriots couldn’t give up or trade Brady away this is an impressive financial commitment to a quarterback who will be 37 when this deal expires.

Miles Austin Signs A Long Term Extension: Austin who wasn’t even a starter until last October, turned in a memorable performance that has now earned him a 6-year $54 million deal. With nearly $20 million in guaranteed money, Austin is now one of the highest paid receivers in the league. Not too shabby considering he was an undrafted free agent just 5 years ago. Austin just 26, is among the leagues premier wideouts and has a great combination of size and speed. He should be well worth the money for the Cowboys going forward. Another interesting side note to this deal is what it will mean for other top flight receivers looking for extensions, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson and Reggie Wayne (Randy Moss as well, but possibly not with the Pats) are all looking for their next deal. Austin’s contract sets a bench mark that they all hope to eclipse.

Diamondbacks Close to Bringing in Kevin Towers as Their New General Manager: It has been a bad year for Arizona, one that they soon want to forget. They dealt two of their best pitchers and received a number of sub-par performances from many of their star players. In addition they failed to sign their 1st round draft pick after he failed his physical. Combine all of that up, to go along with another last place finish. This all led to both a manager and general manger change. Now The D-backs seem poised to make Kevin Towers their new G.M. Towers is a solid choice as he has put together a couple very good Padres teams over the years. What is more impressive is that Towers is used to working within a budget meaning he should be a good fit in the desert. While Towers himself won’t lead to immediate success in Arizona they will have one of the league’s most respected G.M.’s and a good start in their rebuilding process.

The Deal: The Los Angeles Angels acquire SP Dan Haren for SP Joe Saunders, SP Pat Corbin (A+), RP Rafael Rodriguez (AAA), and a PTBNL (likely SP Tyler Skaggs (A-):

Angels: Not only did Los Angeles win this trade, but they did so in a landslide. Dan Haren might be having a bit of a down year but this is a guy whose numbers put him as one of the top 25 pitchers in the league the past 5 years. And during his past two years with the Diamondbacks he was a top 10 pitcher. Now most people might not put him in that elite of a category as he doesn’t have the dominate pitches you usually associate with an ‘ace’, but at worse he is an excellent number 2 starter. What makes him even more valuable is his age and contract. Haren will turn 30 later this year is only due about $4 million the rest of this season, and is under contract for $12.75 a year in both 2011 and 2012. Haren has a very affordable 2013 option at $15.5 which should get picked up, barring some major injury. The Angels acquired a very affordable frontline pitcher for the next 3 and a half years and really didn’t give up anything to do so. They traded more last season for Scott Kazmir who hadn’t been nearly as consistent as Haren. Now the Angels will make a solid run at a playoff berth this year, but are completely set up in their pitching rotation for 2011. All-around this is a great move by the Angels, one that will help them on the field and off, particularly as they look to attract free agents this offseason.

Diamondbacks: I keep looking at this trade and for some reason expect it to get better, but alas it does not. And unless it ends up being 3 PTBNL and they are all top prospects, this is just a bad deal. I have no problem with the Diamondbacks targeting pitching since that is the weakness in their system, though it did severely limit your return from the Angels as their top guys are all hitters. What I do have a problem with is the fact that they have nothing to show for trading their ace. Talk about selling low on a guy, of the 3 prospects the D-backs acquired just one ranked in the top 10 of Keith Law, Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, and that is Skaggs the player to be named later. Skaggs is a good prospect and has pitched well this year in low-A, but there was a couple reasons he ranked on the low end of those top 10 lists. One, he is straight out of High School and while he has pitched well this year, he is probably at least 3 years away. Secondly, while he is projectable, he is far from a sure thing and really only projects as number 3 type of pitcher. Unfortunately for Arizona fans Skaggs is the peak of this deal.

Pat Corbin is a solid prospect and another young left-hander in the midst of a good year in the lower minors. He too is probably about three years away, but he is less of a sure thing, especially when it comes to being in the starting rotation. Rafael Rodriguez is the lone righty and reliever in this deal, but he doesn’t bring much to the table. He should easily make it in the Diamondbacks horrendous bullpen, but will probably never be more than a solid middle reliever at best. From a name standpoint Joe Saunders is the headliner of this deal, but in reality he might be the weakest link. Saunders is a back of the rotation lefty starter, who gives up way too many hits and home runs. His perception and contract are inflated, given the fact that he won 33 games between 2008-2009. While he was pretty good in 2008 he pitched above his head in 2009, and his win totaled was boosted by being on a very good team (and some luck). This year his numbers have gotten worse and his win total has collapsed. What makes things worse for the D-backs is that given his previous win totals Saunders will make probably close to $6 million next season in Arbitration (and even more the year after that). That will significantly eat into the money that the Diamonbacks saved by trading Haren. And what’s worse is that Saunders isn’t worth that much on the open market, but because of P.R. issues they can’t even think of non-tendering him.

This deal was just awful for Arizona as they shouldn’t have taken back any money, much less on a guy like Saunders. Then on top of that the rest of their return wasn’t impressive at all. If I was Arizona I would have insisted on Trevor Reckling be involved in the deal in place of Saunders and a lower pitcher like Trevor Bell or bullpen prospect Jordan Walden to replace Rodriguez. Even then it wouldn’t have been a great deal since there are no sure things, but it would have been a much better return for 3 and a half years of one of the better pitchers in baseball.

Winner: It is not even close the Angels won this deal the moment Trout’s name wasn’t included or it wasn’t for 8 guys. It’s doubtful Los Angeles will ever miss any of these guys, and they set themselves up big time over these next couple of years.

Dan Haren went from practically untouchable, to likely to be traded in about a week. Now, I think a deal will get done by the time Monday rolls around. While initial reports had the Yankees as the front runners, those have since turned out to be a bit premature. The Twins, Tigers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies are all highly interested in the right-hander, despite the fact that he has been struggling of late. The Yankees will probably remain front runners though since they have the easiest path to trade for Haren.

The Twins and Tigers are both on his no-trade list (as are the Rays if they get interested). Now that is not to say Haren won’t be dealt to those teams, just that the D-Backs will need to get his approval to complete a deal. Which is unfortunate for Arizona, since both teams can probably put together better deals than the Yankees. The Dodgers are problematic since they are in the division and would want the Diamondbacks to eat a chunk of change. While that would increase Arizona’s prospect package, it would be hard to swallow to face the Dodgers and you are paying the salary of the pitcher that is beating you. The Cardinals also would have a hard time fitting Haren in their budget, and they lack the farm system to deal for a pitcher like Haren. That leaves the Yankees as the team without any strings attached as they try to acquire Haren.

Haren won’t come cheap, as initial reports had the D-backs asking the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain, pitching prospect Ivan Nova and two other prospects. While the other two players were unknown, my guess is the Diamondbacks asked for two good prospects (possibly Zach McAllister and David Adams, the players rumored in the Cliff Lee deal). While the Yankees turned it down and in turn asked for a deal involving all prospects, my guess is Joba will need to be involved for a deal to take place. Chamberlain’s value has fallen well below the untouchable range, and New York should consider any deal that doesn’t include them giving up Jesus Montero. While I understand the Yankees are hesitant to give up on Chamberlain when is value is at it’s lowest, he is also no longer a rookie. His free agency clock is ticking and if you can get a player like Haren for him, who is signed for multiple years it isn’t a bad deal. Haren would also mean the Yankees would be out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes this offseason (one would think), which would save the Yankees quite a bit of money over the next couple of years.

I still wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers or even the Twins get heavily involved even if Haren would have to approve the deal. Given the state of both franchise’s as team’s built to contend over the next few years, I don’t see why Haren wouldn’t agree to a deal to those cities. Another dark horse team that could get involved is the Rangers, they already traded for Cliff Lee, but he is an impending free agent, and the Rangers could use an ace going forward. While their farm system is a little weaker they have the young frontline pitching the Diamondbacks desire. It might not be as much major league ready pitching, but they have the most high upside arms in the minors. Fitting his contract in their budget might be an issue, but he makes a ton of sense from a talent standpoint (as well as selling tickets). A Lee-Haren front of the rotation could carry Texas deep into the postseason, and deliver the Rangers their first World Series title.

Marlins Spend Money: Stop the presses the Florida Marlins have signed Josh Johnson to a four year extension. Given the recent pressure from the players union for the Marlins to spend more money, its not a huge surprise they made the signing. Florida couldn’t have spent their money any better, as Johnson was an ace for them last season, going 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 191 K’s. The signing of Johnson will hopefully show their fans a sign of commitment, that people might actually come out to watch one of the better young and exciting teams in baseball. Johnson along with Hanley Ramirez, give the Marlins a pitcher and hitter to build around going forward. And will give them the superstars to get them into their new ballpark in 2012. I don’t think this signing is a total change in philosophy for the Marlins, as I’d still expect to see a few of their arbitration eligible players traded before the season. Still, its nice to see Florida lock up another one of their young stars.

D-Backs land LaRoche: Adam LaRoche finally has a home and its a bit of a curious choice for both sides involved. The Diamondbacks got an upgrade at 1B, but its a fairly small one considering they already had Connor Jackson and Brandon Allen for the position. This signing will allow Jackson to play LF, but he’s never been that good defensively out there, so it is hard to see how that makes sense. In addition the Diamondbacks have some young OF’s that should be major league ready soon. Jackson will give Arizona protection against LaRoche’s kryptonite, tough left-handers, but doesn’t give them much else. The signing of LaRoche also pushes back the start date of Brandon Allen. Allen is a big time power prospect (though he’s not yet a refined player) who is just about ready for the majors. While it may have made some sense to add a 1B to give Allen a bit more time, LaRoche seems like the wrong choice for the job. If you are signing a stop gap, it should be someone who is cheaper that you could move to the bench when Allen is ready. Also, Laroche is a notorious slow starter, so even if they were planning on trading him in June/July to make room for Allen, they are paying him to have his worst months of the year (and lower his trade value).

As for LaRoche its a bit of a curious move as well. Ignoring the money factor (which its rumored that he turned down more money from the Giants) I don’t understand this move for LaRoche. He had reported interest by both the Giants, and Orioles, and either one of them seemed like a better fit for LaRoche. The Giants are a playoff caliber team (and would have even been more so if LaRoche signed), while the Diamondbacks are going to struggle to finish 4th in that division. While the Giants have one of the more anemic lineups in baseball, it has gotten closer to league average, which is about as good as Arizona’s. Also by signing with the Giants, LaRoche could have avoided facing Lincecum and Cain multiple times a year. While part of the reason might have been the more spacious confines of AT&T Park over Chase Field, that doesn’t explain the choice of Arizona over Baltimore.

The Orioles like the Diamondbacks aren’t really in the playoff hunt this coming season, but unlike both the Giants and Diamondbacks, they would have offered a lineup that would only benefit LaRoche. Most days LaRoche would likely hit 4th or 5th in the O’s lineup (unless it was a really tough lefty). He’d have Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis hitting in front of him, with Matt Wieters, Noland Reimold, and Garrett Atkins hitting behind him (as well as Luke Scott/Felix Pie factored somewhere in the equation as well). Already that is a lineup far superior to anything the Giants or D-Backs could field, and if Wieters, Jones, and Reimold reach their potential, that could be a top 5 lineup. If LaRoche was looking to park his bat for one season in hopes of increasing his numbers (and with it his value) he couldn’t have done much better than Baltimore. As for ballpark factor, Camden Yards overall isn’t quite as good as Chase Field, but its a better home run park, and the AL East’s parks are far better hitting parks then those in the NL West. Maybe LaRoche really wanted to play in Arizona or the O’s didn’t offer nearly as much money, whatever the reason it seems like a strange call for LaRoche to go out there.