Three-fourths of of the two Championship series are already set, and the fourth could be determined today if the Phillies can knock off the Rockies. The World Champion Phillies have the distinction (if they make it to the second round) of being the only team not to sweep their divisional series, as both LA teams and the Yankees advanced quickly to the next round. I don’t think you can chalk it up to a major talent disparity, as the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees were not that much better than their opponents. I think that may be why the Yanks swept, but not the other two series. I think what we saw in these matchups was the importance of momentum. Its something that we always hear about in sports, but one of the hardest things to quantify. But three playoff sweeps are the perfect example for how momentum can kill you.

Now to be fair, the better team, and the team with home field advantage came out ahead in every series. With the exception of the Yankees-Twins matchup, no one really thought these games would would go by so quickly. The Dodgers were the better team, but the Cards had some mega talent on their roster. It was a series that could go either way, and would likely go the full five games. It lasted just three games, because in game two with the Cardinals in perfect position to even up the series 1-1 before heading back to St. Louis, OF Matt Holliday made a critical error that allowed the Dodgers to come back to win the game. The Cards had no chance in Game 3 at home, after literally watching the series slip through their (Holliday’s) hands.

The Red Sox vs. Angels series was another one where the Angels had the advantages on paper, but the Red Sox were favored given their vaunted lineup, vast playoff experience, and the Fenway Faithful giving the Sox a huge advantage in games three and four. Well the Angels shut down the the Sox lineup in the first two games, holding them to just eight hits, including only two extra base hits (neither of which was a home run). Up 2-0 in the series the Angels took away another advantage the Red Sox had by ensuring the series had to come back to Anaheim if Boston hoped to win it. If the Red Sox went back to Boston tied 1-1, their home field advantage for games three and four could have given them the momentum to win the series. Instead being down 2-0 left them in a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of. The Red Sox did hit a little better (seven hits, two extra base hits, including a home run) scoring six runs, compared to the single run they managed in the first two games. That extra offense wasn’t enough as the bullpen got touched up for five runs in the final two innings. In watching the game you just see that despite being down by three runs entering the 8th inning, the Angels showed no sign of panic. They knew they could win that game and finish the series right there in Boston.

Now the least surprising sweep was by far the Yankees over the Twins. Minnesota was coming off a 12 inning game to just get into the playoffs, and were a team without their second best hitter and their best pitcher. They had just about no chance to knock off the Yankees and all their top baseball talent. And even though it was one of the worst calls I’ve ever seen in game (especially with the ump down the line) the Joe Mauer foul call in Game 2 did not change the outcome of the series (though probably changed the outcome of the game). Even if the Twins win that game, they would have been overmatched and unable to win two of the last three games. I maybe could have seen them winning one more at home, but even that was a stretch. The biggest thing with that call was that it visibly took the wind out of the Twins sails, in that game (bases loaded no outs and you can’t get a run) and yesterday at home (4-1 loss).

In all three matchups we saw the importance of grabbing that important 2-0 series lead, before you head out on the road. Hopefully from a baseball fan’s perspective, the Championship round and the World Series are a bit more exciting than the first round has been (Sorry Rockies fans I don’t see them overcoming the Phillies). Baseball could use some good drama in October, especially since all we have left are the big market teams.

Though only two days into the postseason, we’ve already had our share of surprises. In the American League, both series have only gone one game, and while the Yankees first game went as expected, the Red Sox performance last night raised some eyebrows. If the Yankees had not crushed the Twins on Wednesday evening it would have been a major disappointment. Regardless of the fact that the Yankees are the better team to begin with, Minnesota was coming off their one game extra inning playoff with the Tigers the night before, on top of that it was CC Sabathia facing off against Brian Duensing. The Yankees are right where they should be in this postseason, their AL East counterparts on the other hand are not. The Boston Red Sox got blanked by the Anaheim Angels 5-0. Now a John Lackey-John Lester matchup in LA is one that favors the Angels, so its not surprising that they won. What is surprising is the score, or lack there of by the Red Sox. In six postseason games this year, the Red Sox are the only team not to score. Boston is not a team that can win 2-1 or 3-2 games this postseason, their pitching is no better than solid and their defense is suspect. They are built to out hit their opponent, except it didn’t show last night when they only managed four hits (all singles). If the Boston bats don’t awaken soon then Anaheim will cruise to the second round.

In the National League each series has gone two games and each has had its own surprises. The Dodgers are up 2-0 and look to go for the sweep Saturday evening in St. Louis. Look I like the Dodgers as much as anyone, and have been among their biggest supporters of their postseason aspirations, but not even I thought they were going to be up 2-0. The Cardinals were a number of analysts’ World Series pick from the NL, and seemed destined to steal a game in LA with Carpenter and Wainwright pitching the first two games. The fact that the Dodgers already beat the two best pitchers in the entire NL playoffs (Wainwright didn’t get the loss, as Matt Holliday the bullpen blew last nights game), bodes well for the rest of the October in LA. Now the Cards are reeling, even if they can win game 3 they will need to rely on John Smoltz or Kyle Loshe in a deciding Game 4…ouch. Theoretically they could bring Chris Carpenter back on short rest, but he didn’t look sharp in Game 1 (105 pitches in five innings, giving up four runs on nine hits) on regular rest I’m not sure how he’ll respond when he’s less fresh. Wainwright was lights out, but he isn’t going on two days rest for Game 4 if they get there (though don’t be surprised to see him come in out of the bullpen if its close). The other NL series is just as surprising. The World Champion Phillies were the team I thought that would be up 2-0 in their series over the Rockies. Instead the Rockies touched up ace Cole Hamels for seven hits and four runs in five innings yesterday to even the series up 1-1. Now I thought the Rockies would win at least one game in this series, but I thought it would be in Colorado, and not against Hamels. The Phillies needed to jump out to a series lead before the games went back to Colorado given the precarious state of their bullpen. Now the pressure is on the Phillies to win on the road to keep their hope for a repeat title alive.

So what do you guys think, have the early returns changed anyone’s postseason predictions?

This will mark the fourth time in the last six years that the Red Sox and Angels have met in the postseason. In the first three series Boston came out the winner (and twice went on to win the World Series). This year though I wouldn’t be booking my Boston ALCS tickets just yet though. The 2009 Angels are a better team than they were in the past. At the same time the Red Sox are falling, due to injury and ineffectiveness.

David Ortiz salvaged his year with a late power surge, but his offensive numbers were way down this year. Ortiz was awful this year against LHP’s which is something he’ll face quite a bit of in this series, as two of the Angels starters and their top two relievers are southpaws. Alex Gonzalez and Jason Varitek have become automatic outs in the Red Sox lineup. Mike Lowell has battled injuries all year, and while his offensive numbers have been solid, his defensive numbers are way down. Defense has become a big problem across the board on this team, as with the exception of Drew, Gonzalez, Youkilis (only at 1B) and Pedroia, everyone else is well below average defensively. Now to be fair those four players are all very good defenders at their positions, but they don’t make up for how bad the rest of the team is. Teams can run all day on Varitek and Martinez behind the plate, and moving V-Mart to 1B significantly weakens the defense as well. For all Ellsbury’s speed and range (and surprising good arm) he has been a liability in centerfield for Boston. Jason Bay, like many other outfielders before him, as looked completely lost playing in front of the Green Monster. On the pitching side of it, the Red Sox will need to rely on Dice-K to continue to overcome the control issues that plagued him at the beginning of the season, and Clay Buchholtz will need to give them a big time quality start in Game 3. Boston’s bullpen was thought to be their strength this season, but has overall been a bit of a disappointment. When they are on and have control they are devastating, because of the number of power arms they have. Unfortunately they have seemed to disappear in a number of big games down the stretch.

The best news for Anaheim is that their strengths are Boston’s weaknesses. While the Angels have some power hitters, they put more balls in play that should drop for hits against a weak Boston defense. Anaheim also relies on taking walks and speed which works pretty nicely against a Red Sox staff that has control issues right now, and a catching tandem that can’t throw anyone out. The Angels have a fairly strong defense across the board, with Bobby Abreu the only real liability in right field.  The Angels have a strong staff four deep, but its not a dominate playoff staff. The best thing going for it is the two lefties (Kazmir and Saunders) that should make Big Papi completely ineffective in Boston. Which is huge considering he hit two-thirds of his home runs at Fenway this year, and batted 50 points higher. If he’s out then that means that Varitek is likely starting (with V-Mart at 1B,  Youk at 3B, and Lowell DH’ing) hurting the lineup offensively and defensively.

The bad news for the Angels is in the end they are still going up against a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia,Youkilis, Bay, V-Mart, Lowell, and Drew. Not to mention facing a battery of Lester and Beckett in the first two games, with Papelbon closing the door. I do think in the star power and experience of the Red Sox will in out in the end. No they might not have the best bench, or defense. And there are more questions in their lineup and bullpen than in years past. But at the end of the day they are still the Boston Red Sox, and at the end of the series I think they will be advancing after squeaking by 3-2 in the matchup.

It took 24 combined hits, 14 different pitchers and 12 innings, (not to mention 163 games) but the Minnesota Twins are the 2010 AL Central Division champs. Early on the Tigers took a 3-0 lead, but the Twins battled back to go up 4-3 in the 7th before the Tigers tied it to force extra innings. Minnesota had to outlast a number of Tigers opportunities in the late innings, including scoring the tying run in the 10th to keep the game alive. Now the Twins “won” the right to face the Yankees in the first round in a series that starts tonight.

Yankees vs. Twins:

New York is a huge favorite in the five game series, and that was even before the Twins used some of the best bullpen arms last night. This very well could be a sweep, but I think the Twins will steal one of the games from New York when they return home to Minnesota. The Yankees just have too much pitching and hitting for the Twins. And if the game is ever close in the 8th or 9th inning the Yankees have Mariano Rivera, the best closer ever to play the game. The Twins right now are without their second best offensive weapon (Morneau) and have a makeshift pitching rotation. They just can’t match up with the Yankees to really give them a threat.

Rockies vs. Phillies

No team has been hotter down the stretch this year than the Colorado Rockies, going 74-42 after replacing Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy early in the season. They almost stole the NL West from the Dodgers, and overcame seven other teams fighting for the Wild Card spot down the stretch. Their impressive run though is about to come to an end, as the are prepared to meet the world champs in the first round. The Philadelphia Phillies have a great offense with five players with 20 or more home runs on the year. The Phillies have the deepest starting pitching they’ve had since they went to the World Series in 1993, with a pair of aces at the top in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Lee and Hamels should be the difference in the series, between the two of them they should be able to win three games. The Phillies only weakness is their bullpen, I don’t know if they can rely on them to hold 1-3 run leads night in and night out. The good news for Philly is they can use their extra starting depth to pitch meaningful innings out of the bullpen. The Rockies are a good team, but are already without one of their top pitchers for the series. They have a good lineup 1-8, but don’t have the star power outside Tulowitzki at SS. As long as the Phillies don’t need to rely on their bullpen too much, they should have no problems advancing to the next round. I think Philadelphia wins this series 3-1, although with the way the Rockies have been playing and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them force a game 5.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals:

The Cardinals seem to be a favorite NL World Series pick among baseball people out there, but I don’t think they will make it past LA in the first round. I understand that the Cards have Pujols and Matt Holliday, two of the best hitters in the game, and they have a pair of Cy Young contenders in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Unfortunately, I don’t think they have enough talent elsewhere to win this series. The Dodgers are stacked 1-25 on their roster, they have the deepest, bench, lineup, bullpen and rotation in the National League this year. Combine that with the home field advantage aspect, and I think the Dodgers are the favorites in this series. The big difference is going to be the bullpens in this matchup. The Dodgers might have the best bullpen in the game right now, where as the Cardinals bullpen scares me even more than the Phillies bullpen. They have been pitching over their heads this year, and I don’t know if they will be able to shut the door on the Dodgers offense like they were able to do against the likes of the Pirates and Reds during the season. In the end I think the Dodgers bench and bullpen win the day (and series) for LA 3-2.