This is my preview for the American League Divisional Series.  The AL playoffs kick off Wednesday starting with the Rangers @ Rays at 1:37 and then the Yankees @ Twins at 8:37.

Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

The Rangers travel to the Trop to take on the Rays, who had baseball’s best record in the regular season.  It will be interesting to see if the home-field advantage actually makes that big of a difference in this series considering Tropicana Field drew about 12,000 fans in a potential playoff-clinching game.  This is the playoffs though and the fans were rowdy two years ago in the postseason so I’d be shocked to see them not show up in large numbers.  Anyway, let’s analyze the two teams:

Pitching: The first game will be the best pitching-duel of the series as David Price takes on Cliff Lee.  Price was 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season.  He pitched one time against Texas this year going 6 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, and striking out 8 in a 6-4 win.  I will look to see the same type of outing from Price Wednesday against one of the most productive batting lineups in the AL.  Cliff Lee is the one pitcher on the Rangers that I can see winning a game in this series.  What he did in the postseason last year was just ridiculous and if he can repeat that, the Rangers can maybe scrap up a couple of wins.  Lee was 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this year.  However, Lee has had a rough time pitching against the Rays this year.  He lost all 3 games he pitched to the Rays going 26.2 innings, giving up 12 earned runs, and 24 hits.  EDGE: Price

Game 2: C.J. Wilson (TEX) vs. James Shields (TB).  I give the edge to Shields here because he will be pitching at home and had relatively good success against Texas this year going 1-1 in 14 innings and only giving up 4 earned runs.  Wilson actually won in his only start against Tampa thanks to great run support, going 5 innings and giving up 3 earned runs.

Game 3: Matt Garza (TB) vs. Colby Lewis (TEX).  Yet again, I feel like Garza has what it takes to win this battle as he went 2-0 against Texas this season including a shutout in 7 innings in his last outing.  Lewis did not pitch against the Rays this season.

Game 4: Wade Davis (TB) vs. Tommy Hunter (TEX).  I’ll give the edge to Hunter in the battle of the #4 pitchers.  Hunter had a CG win early in the season against the Rays giving up only 1 ER.

Hitting: There are some All-Star caliber sluggers on both these teams with the Rangers featuring Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Guerrero and the Rays featuring Crawford, Upton, Pena, and Longoria.  The Rangers were 1st in the bigs in batting avg (.276) and 5th in runs (787), whereas the Rays were a lowly 27th in batting avg (.247) yet 3rd in runs (802).  The Rays have what it takes to put up some high numbers but the Rangers seem more consistent.  EDGE: Rangers

Prediction: I think the Rays will be too much for the Rangers in this series.  They have better pitching and they are the Champs of the best league in baseball, the AL East.  It would be interesting if the Rangers can squeak out a win in Tampa in the first two games and then head to Arlington for two more.  RAYS IN 4

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)

The World-Series Champs look to defend their 27th championship as they head to Minnesota for the ALDS.  The Yankees have beaten the Twins three times in a row since 2003 in the ALDS, however this is the first time Minnesota gets home field advantage.  It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays a factor in the stadium’s first playoff series in history.

Pitching: Game 1: One of baseball’s most automatic, consistent pitchers C.C. Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) will be dueling against Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).  Liriano has shown signs of dominance in his career and had two decent outtings against the Yankees earlier this season going 0-1 in two starts and giving up 5 runs in 13 innings.  C.C. did not pitch against the Twins this season but has been one of baseball’s best and the Yankees’ ace. EDGE: SABATHIA

Game 2 and 3: The Yankees have not announced who their probables are for Games 2 and 3, but I assume Pettitte will go Game 2 if he is healthy and ready to go and that will leave either Nova or Hughes to pitch Game 3.  The Twins are pitching former Yankee-bust Carl Pavano in Game 2 and former relief pitcher Brian Duensing in Game 3.  With Pettitte’s unbelievable October and postseason track record, I see him having the edge in the game he pitches.  If Duensing goes up against the rookie Nova I would give the edge to Duensing.  Hughes could have a great game if he starts and throws his best.

Game 4: Nick Blackburn (MIN) vs. A.J. Burnett (NYY).  Blackburn is an impressive 2-0 in 2 starts against the Yankees, giving up 5 runs in 14 innings.  Burnett is just a mystery; will he pitch dominant like he did when signed by the Yankees or will he be the league leader in wild pitches and throw countless walks like he has shown this year?  Burnett is 1-0 against the Twins this year in 2 starts, giving up 2 earned runs in 11.2 innings, but I have just not been impressed with his consistency and lack of control.

Hitting: The Bronx Bombers sport another powerful lineup from top-to-bottom this postseason.  When fully healthy, they have the most dangerous lineup in the league with such All-Star caliber as Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Posada.  It will be interesting to see if the clutch A-Rod of last postseason continues and if Teixeira can step up.  Don’t count out the Twins though as they were 2nd in batting avg (.274) and 6th in runs (772) this season with such sluggers as Mauer, Cuddyer, Thome, and Young.  The Twins can definitely put up some runs but it is hard to find a better lineup on better than the Yankees — the only question is can they prove it on the field? EDGE: YANKEES

Predicition: This will be a great back-and-forth, nail-bitting series that I think will be decided in 5 games.  Home-field advantage should play a key role and it will be interesting to see what the Yankees do with their starting pitcher situation after Sabathia.  Overall, I think the Yankees will continue their postseason success against the Twins and strive for their 28th World Series title. YANKEES IN 5

Now the Angels backs are against the wall and are facing elimination. This was supposed to be a close series, but is in serious danger of turning into a rout. The Angels had a chance early on in this series to make a statement and potentially upset the Yankees, but now they are all but defeated. In Game 1 the Angels still couldn’t hit Sabathia, but errors and miscues plagued the Angels and took them out of the game early. Then in game two, which was a thrilling 13th inning struggle, the Angels gave away that game on an error at the end as well. The true fact of the matter is, that game should have never reached extra innings given the number of times the Angels left runners in scoring position. Game 2 was the deciding game for the Angels, had they won that, this would have been a completely different series.

The Angels look like a completely different team than the one that won the A.L. West and swept the Red Sox in the first round. Their defense and pitching have been ineffective, their hitting is nonexistent (with the exception of Kendry Morales), and their speed has pretty much been neutralized. The Yankees have done a brilliant job of playing their game and not being sucked in, trying to play the Angels game. They have Los Angeles completely off-balance right now. I could see the Angels winning tomorrow’s game at home, but I can’t see them pulling off an upset in New York.

Now to be fair, the better team, and the team with home field advantage came out ahead in every series. With the exception of the Yankees-Twins matchup, no one really thought these games would would go by so quickly. The Dodgers were the better team, but the Cards had some mega talent on their roster. It was a series that could go either way, and would likely go the full five games. It lasted just three games, because in game two with the Cardinals in perfect position to even up the series 1-1 before heading back to St. Louis, OF Matt Holliday made a critical error that allowed the Dodgers to come back to win the game. The Cards had no chance in Game 3 at home, after literally watching the series slip through their (Holliday’s) hands.

The Red Sox vs. Angels series was another one where the Angels had the advantages on paper, but the Red Sox were favored given their vaunted lineup, vast playoff experience, and the Fenway Faithful giving the Sox a huge advantage in games three and four. Well the Angels shut down the the Sox lineup in the first two games, holding them to just eight hits, including only two extra base hits (neither of which was a home run). Up 2-0 in the series the Angels took away another advantage the Red Sox had by ensuring the series had to come back to Anaheim if Boston hoped to win it. If the Red Sox went back to Boston tied 1-1, their home field advantage for games three and four could have given them the momentum to win the series. Instead being down 2-0 left them in a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of. The Red Sox did hit a little better (seven hits, two extra base hits, including a home run) scoring six runs, compared to the single run they managed in the first two games. That extra offense wasn’t enough as the bullpen got touched up for five runs in the final two innings. In watching the game you just see that despite being down by three runs entering the 8th inning, the Angels showed no sign of panic. They knew they could win that game and finish the series right there in Boston.

Now the least surprising sweep was by far the Yankees over the Twins. Minnesota was coming off a 12 inning game to just get into the playoffs, and were a team without their second best hitter and their best pitcher. They had just about no chance to knock off the Yankees and all their top baseball talent. And even though it was one of the worst calls I’ve ever seen in game (especially with the ump down the line) the Joe Mauer foul call in Game 2 did not change the outcome of the series (though probably changed the outcome of the game). Even if the Twins win that game, they would have been overmatched and unable to win two of the last three games. I maybe could have seen them winning one more at home, but even that was a stretch. The biggest thing with that call was that it visibly took the wind out of the Twins sails, in that game (bases loaded no outs and you can’t get a run) and yesterday at home (4-1 loss).

In all three matchups we saw the importance of grabbing that important 2-0 series lead, before you head out on the road. Hopefully from a baseball fan’s perspective, the Championship round and the World Series are a bit more exciting than the first round has been (Sorry Rockies fans I don’t see them overcoming the Phillies). Baseball could use some good drama in October, especially since all we have left are the big market teams.

In the National League each series has gone two games and each has had its own surprises. The Dodgers are up 2-0 and look to go for the sweep Saturday evening in St. Louis. Look I like the Dodgers as much as anyone, and have been among their biggest supporters of their postseason aspirations, but not even I thought they were going to be up 2-0. The Cardinals were a number of analysts’ World Series pick from the NL, and seemed destined to steal a game in LA with Carpenter and Wainwright pitching the first two games. The fact that the Dodgers already beat the two best pitchers in the entire NL playoffs (Wainwright didn’t get the loss, as Matt Holliday the bullpen blew last nights game), bodes well for the rest of the October in LA. Now the Cards are reeling, even if they can win game 3 they will need to rely on John Smoltz or Kyle Loshe in a deciding Game 4…ouch. Theoretically they could bring Chris Carpenter back on short rest, but he didn’t look sharp in Game 1 (105 pitches in five innings, giving up four runs on nine hits) on regular rest I’m not sure how he’ll respond when he’s less fresh. Wainwright was lights out, but he isn’t going on two days rest for Game 4 if they get there (though don’t be surprised to see him come in out of the bullpen if its close). The other NL series is just as surprising. The World Champion Phillies were the team I thought that would be up 2-0 in their series over the Rockies. Instead the Rockies touched up ace Cole Hamels for seven hits and four runs in five innings yesterday to even the series up 1-1. Now I thought the Rockies would win at least one game in this series, but I thought it would be in Colorado, and not against Hamels. The Phillies needed to jump out to a series lead before the games went back to Colorado given the precarious state of their bullpen. Now the pressure is on the Phillies to win on the road to keep their hope for a repeat title alive.

So what do you guys think, have the early returns changed anyone’s postseason predictions?

David Ortiz salvaged his year with a late power surge, but his offensive numbers were way down this year. Ortiz was awful this year against LHP’s which is something he’ll face quite a bit of in this series, as two of the Angels starters and their top two relievers are southpaws. Alex Gonzalez and Jason Varitek have become automatic outs in the Red Sox lineup. Mike Lowell has battled injuries all year, and while his offensive numbers have been solid, his defensive numbers are way down. Defense has become a big problem across the board on this team, as with the exception of Drew, Gonzalez, Youkilis (only at 1B) and Pedroia, everyone else is well below average defensively. Now to be fair those four players are all very good defenders at their positions, but they don’t make up for how bad the rest of the team is. Teams can run all day on Varitek and Martinez behind the plate, and moving V-Mart to 1B significantly weakens the defense as well. For all Ellsbury’s speed and range (and surprising good arm) he has been a liability in centerfield for Boston. Jason Bay, like many other outfielders before him, as looked completely lost playing in front of the Green Monster. On the pitching side of it, the Red Sox will need to rely on Dice-K to continue to overcome the control issues that plagued him at the beginning of the season, and Clay Buchholtz will need to give them a big time quality start in Game 3. Boston’s bullpen was thought to be their strength this season, but has overall been a bit of a disappointment. When they are on and have control they are devastating, because of the number of power arms they have. Unfortunately they have seemed to disappear in a number of big games down the stretch.

The best news for Anaheim is that their strengths are Boston’s weaknesses. While the Angels have some power hitters, they put more balls in play that should drop for hits against a weak Boston defense. Anaheim also relies on taking walks and speed which works pretty nicely against a Red Sox staff that has control issues right now, and a catching tandem that can’t throw anyone out. The Angels have a fairly strong defense across the board, with Bobby Abreu the only real liability in right field.  The Angels have a strong staff four deep, but its not a dominate playoff staff. The best thing going for it is the two lefties (Kazmir and Saunders) that should make Big Papi completely ineffective in Boston. Which is huge considering he hit two-thirds of his home runs at Fenway this year, and batted 50 points higher. If he’s out then that means that Varitek is likely starting (with V-Mart at 1B,  Youk at 3B, and Lowell DH’ing) hurting the lineup offensively and defensively.

The bad news for the Angels is in the end they are still going up against a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia,Youkilis, Bay, V-Mart, Lowell, and Drew. Not to mention facing a battery of Lester and Beckett in the first two games, with Papelbon closing the door. I do think in the star power and experience of the Red Sox will in out in the end. No they might not have the best bench, or defense. And there are more questions in their lineup and bullpen than in years past. But at the end of the day they are still the Boston Red Sox, and at the end of the series I think they will be advancing after squeaking by 3-2 in the matchup.

This game has a lot of significance to Minnesota and their fans. Not only are they trying to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss, and return to the postseason, but this is the Twins last year in the Metrodome, their home since 1982. If they win tonight they can extend the life of baseball in the dome a little while longer. Not only do the Twins have home field advantage, but the fans tonight will be extra excited to send the Metrodome out in style (the Vikings winning last night couldn’t have hurt either). The Twins hope the magic of their fans can propel them to a third World Series crown in the dome.

For the Tigers combating this date with destiny is a 20-year old rookie pitcher Rick Porcello. Two years ago at this time Porcello was an 18-year old kid, who had just been rewarded a $7 million dollar signing bonus out of high school, and was preparing for his first professional season. Now he is pitching the biggest game of the year (and by far his career) for the Tigers. High school pitchers NEVER jump to the majors this quickly, usually it takes them 3-5 years of minor league seasoning to be ready for the show. Porcello needed just one, and at High-A ball no less, which is a major step down from Major League competition. Regardless of tonight’s outcome Porcello is a great pitcher, who has a brilliant future. For the Tigers sake, they hope he has at least one more great game in his rookie year, otherwise 2009 will be the year the Tigers collapsed.

The Central race has been a battle all season and for most of the year it was a three horse race, with the Chicago White Sox involved as well. In September the Tigers began to separate themselves, and on September 6th they held a 7-game lead. The Tigers had even more control, when with four games to go, and Detroit’s magic number at 2, the Tigers played host to the Twins. If Detroit won that game last week, it would have given them the the Central Division. Even with that loss the Tigers needed to take just 2 out of 3 from the White Sox at home, and were only able to squeak by with a victory in Sunday’s game. Not to take anything away from Minnesota, but if they end up playing the Yankees, it won’t be a case of them winning the Central, as much as it is the Tigers losing it.

I think the Tigers can win this game, and I do have faith in the rookie to get the job done, but boy do they have to overcome a lot tonight. The Twins have the momentum and the home field, in the end I think that will be enough to extend the Twins season a little while longer (Joe Mauer doesn’t hurt either). Look for the Twins to win a close one late 6-5 and advance to play the Yankees in the first round.

The fact that only four teams in each league make the postseason is ridiculous (while we are at it can we expand by two teams so both leagues are even, and go to 4 divisions like the NFL). The NBA and NHL both have 30 teams like baseball and they have 16 teams make the playoffs, they also have ‘best of series’ showing its possible for baseball to expand as well. Now 8 teams per league would be too much, but going to an NFL format, where six teams (per league) make it and the top two division leaders get a bye in round one, makes a lot of sense. I would like to see the battle for three Wild Card spots (two if they did move to four 4-team divisions per league, but I shouldn’t get too greedy) opposed to what we have this year, when the playoffs are predetermined with 10 days to go (with the exception of the AL Central).

When you think about it an MLB season is twice as long as the NHL’s or NBA’s (in games played), and 10 times as long as the NFL, yet 22 teams don’t have a chance to win the World Series. I think we should expand the number of teams, not just to benefit the fans interest in the waning months of the season, or to help small market teams compete, but to add another incentive for teams to compete all they way to the end. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers might have acquired talent at the trade deadline this year, if their playoff chances were that much better. Its not just small to mid-market teams that would change their strategy, look at the New York Mets, their season went off the tracks early with a number of big injuries. By the time the trade deadline rolled around the Phillies were entrenched in first, which left the Mets competing with about 7 other teams for the NL’s one Wild Card spot. They decided, and rightly so, that with little chance of making the playoffs they would essentially ’punt’ on the rest of the season, and not give up any prospects in trades. Now if their post season chances were higher, they might have made some moves and been in the chase. The one detractor that most people say is that by extending the post season, baseball will go on until mid-November. I don’t think that has to be true, and with a few simple changes the problem can be solved. First I think you do what Gammons suggested and start the season half a week earlier. Next you eliminate at least two of the off days that teams get in April. Then you eliminate some of the off days that are already built into the playoff schedule. Right now there is only one ‘travel’ day built into the World Series, yet there are 3-4 built into the Divisional and Championship Series. Eliminate those and you have plenty of time for an extra round of playoffs. Which among other reasons to sell owners on expanding, will add millions of dollars in national television and radio money, to all baseball teams, not just the 12 in the playoffs.