After playing two of the best baseball games I’ve ever seen in Games 2 and 3, last night’s Angels looked completely flat. Going into the game it looked as though the Angels might have a small advantage, with the rumor that Mariano Rivera wouldn’t be available and the fact that CC Sabathia was pitching on short rest. If Rivera truly couldn’t go, (or would be to tired to be effective) and with Joba Chamberlain ineffective this postseason, the Yankees would be at a disadvantage at the back end of their bullpen. The only reliable option they had would be Phil Hughes, who was coming off a multiple inning appearance the night before. All the Angels had to do was get to Sabathia early and keep the game close.  Unfortunately they could barely touch him, as Sabathia scattered five hits over 8 innings pitched, and gave up only one extra base hit. By the time Sabathia left the game, he had a commanding 10-1 lead and the game was pretty much over.

Now the Angels backs are against the wall and are facing elimination. This was supposed to be a close series, but is in serious danger of turning into a rout. The Angels had a chance early on in this series to make a statement and potentially upset the Yankees, but now they are all but defeated. In Game 1 the Angels still couldn’t hit Sabathia, but errors and miscues plagued the Angels and took them out of the game early. Then in game two, which was a thrilling 13th inning struggle, the Angels gave away that game on an error at the end as well. The true fact of the matter is, that game should have never reached extra innings given the number of times the Angels left runners in scoring position. Game 2 was the deciding game for the Angels, had they won that, this would have been a completely different series.

The Angels look like a completely different team than the one that won the A.L. West and swept the Red Sox in the first round. Their defense and pitching have been ineffective, their hitting is nonexistent (with the exception of Kendry Morales), and their speed has pretty much been neutralized. The Yankees have done a brilliant job of playing their game and not being sucked in, trying to play the Angels game. They have Los Angeles completely off-balance right now. I could see the Angels winning tomorrow’s game at home, but I can’t see them pulling off an upset in New York.

Three-fourths of of the two Championship series are already set, and the fourth could be determined today if the Phillies can knock off the Rockies. The World Champion Phillies have the distinction (if they make it to the second round) of being the only team not to sweep their divisional series, as both LA teams and the Yankees advanced quickly to the next round. I don’t think you can chalk it up to a major talent disparity, as the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees were not that much better than their opponents. I think that may be why the Yanks swept, but not the other two series. I think what we saw in these matchups was the importance of momentum. Its something that we always hear about in sports, but one of the hardest things to quantify. But three playoff sweeps are the perfect example for how momentum can kill you.

Now to be fair, the better team, and the team with home field advantage came out ahead in every series. With the exception of the Yankees-Twins matchup, no one really thought these games would would go by so quickly. The Dodgers were the better team, but the Cards had some mega talent on their roster. It was a series that could go either way, and would likely go the full five games. It lasted just three games, because in game two with the Cardinals in perfect position to even up the series 1-1 before heading back to St. Louis, OF Matt Holliday made a critical error that allowed the Dodgers to come back to win the game. The Cards had no chance in Game 3 at home, after literally watching the series slip through their (Holliday’s) hands.

The Red Sox vs. Angels series was another one where the Angels had the advantages on paper, but the Red Sox were favored given their vaunted lineup, vast playoff experience, and the Fenway Faithful giving the Sox a huge advantage in games three and four. Well the Angels shut down the the Sox lineup in the first two games, holding them to just eight hits, including only two extra base hits (neither of which was a home run). Up 2-0 in the series the Angels took away another advantage the Red Sox had by ensuring the series had to come back to Anaheim if Boston hoped to win it. If the Red Sox went back to Boston tied 1-1, their home field advantage for games three and four could have given them the momentum to win the series. Instead being down 2-0 left them in a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of. The Red Sox did hit a little better (seven hits, two extra base hits, including a home run) scoring six runs, compared to the single run they managed in the first two games. That extra offense wasn’t enough as the bullpen got touched up for five runs in the final two innings. In watching the game you just see that despite being down by three runs entering the 8th inning, the Angels showed no sign of panic. They knew they could win that game and finish the series right there in Boston.

Now the least surprising sweep was by far the Yankees over the Twins. Minnesota was coming off a 12 inning game to just get into the playoffs, and were a team without their second best hitter and their best pitcher. They had just about no chance to knock off the Yankees and all their top baseball talent. And even though it was one of the worst calls I’ve ever seen in game (especially with the ump down the line) the Joe Mauer foul call in Game 2 did not change the outcome of the series (though probably changed the outcome of the game). Even if the Twins win that game, they would have been overmatched and unable to win two of the last three games. I maybe could have seen them winning one more at home, but even that was a stretch. The biggest thing with that call was that it visibly took the wind out of the Twins sails, in that game (bases loaded no outs and you can’t get a run) and yesterday at home (4-1 loss).

In all three matchups we saw the importance of grabbing that important 2-0 series lead, before you head out on the road. Hopefully from a baseball fan’s perspective, the Championship round and the World Series are a bit more exciting than the first round has been (Sorry Rockies fans I don’t see them overcoming the Phillies). Baseball could use some good drama in October, especially since all we have left are the big market teams.

Though only two days into the postseason, we’ve already had our share of surprises. In the American League, both series have only gone one game, and while the Yankees first game went as expected, the Red Sox performance last night raised some eyebrows. If the Yankees had not crushed the Twins on Wednesday evening it would have been a major disappointment. Regardless of the fact that the Yankees are the better team to begin with, Minnesota was coming off their one game extra inning playoff with the Tigers the night before, on top of that it was CC Sabathia facing off against Brian Duensing. The Yankees are right where they should be in this postseason, their AL East counterparts on the other hand are not. The Boston Red Sox got blanked by the Anaheim Angels 5-0. Now a John Lackey-John Lester matchup in LA is one that favors the Angels, so its not surprising that they won. What is surprising is the score, or lack there of by the Red Sox. In six postseason games this year, the Red Sox are the only team not to score. Boston is not a team that can win 2-1 or 3-2 games this postseason, their pitching is no better than solid and their defense is suspect. They are built to out hit their opponent, except it didn’t show last night when they only managed four hits (all singles). If the Boston bats don’t awaken soon then Anaheim will cruise to the second round.

In the National League each series has gone two games and each has had its own surprises. The Dodgers are up 2-0 and look to go for the sweep Saturday evening in St. Louis. Look I like the Dodgers as much as anyone, and have been among their biggest supporters of their postseason aspirations, but not even I thought they were going to be up 2-0. The Cardinals were a number of analysts’ World Series pick from the NL, and seemed destined to steal a game in LA with Carpenter and Wainwright pitching the first two games. The fact that the Dodgers already beat the two best pitchers in the entire NL playoffs (Wainwright didn’t get the loss, as Matt Holliday the bullpen blew last nights game), bodes well for the rest of the October in LA. Now the Cards are reeling, even if they can win game 3 they will need to rely on John Smoltz or Kyle Loshe in a deciding Game 4…ouch. Theoretically they could bring Chris Carpenter back on short rest, but he didn’t look sharp in Game 1 (105 pitches in five innings, giving up four runs on nine hits) on regular rest I’m not sure how he’ll respond when he’s less fresh. Wainwright was lights out, but he isn’t going on two days rest for Game 4 if they get there (though don’t be surprised to see him come in out of the bullpen if its close). The other NL series is just as surprising. The World Champion Phillies were the team I thought that would be up 2-0 in their series over the Rockies. Instead the Rockies touched up ace Cole Hamels for seven hits and four runs in five innings yesterday to even the series up 1-1. Now I thought the Rockies would win at least one game in this series, but I thought it would be in Colorado, and not against Hamels. The Phillies needed to jump out to a series lead before the games went back to Colorado given the precarious state of their bullpen. Now the pressure is on the Phillies to win on the road to keep their hope for a repeat title alive.

So what do you guys think, have the early returns changed anyone’s postseason predictions?

This will mark the fourth time in the last six years that the Red Sox and Angels have met in the postseason. In the first three series Boston came out the winner (and twice went on to win the World Series). This year though I wouldn’t be booking my Boston ALCS tickets just yet though. The 2009 Angels are a better team than they were in the past. At the same time the Red Sox are falling, due to injury and ineffectiveness.

David Ortiz salvaged his year with a late power surge, but his offensive numbers were way down this year. Ortiz was awful this year against LHP’s which is something he’ll face quite a bit of in this series, as two of the Angels starters and their top two relievers are southpaws. Alex Gonzalez and Jason Varitek have become automatic outs in the Red Sox lineup. Mike Lowell has battled injuries all year, and while his offensive numbers have been solid, his defensive numbers are way down. Defense has become a big problem across the board on this team, as with the exception of Drew, Gonzalez, Youkilis (only at 1B) and Pedroia, everyone else is well below average defensively. Now to be fair those four players are all very good defenders at their positions, but they don’t make up for how bad the rest of the team is. Teams can run all day on Varitek and Martinez behind the plate, and moving V-Mart to 1B significantly weakens the defense as well. For all Ellsbury’s speed and range (and surprising good arm) he has been a liability in centerfield for Boston. Jason Bay, like many other outfielders before him, as looked completely lost playing in front of the Green Monster. On the pitching side of it, the Red Sox will need to rely on Dice-K to continue to overcome the control issues that plagued him at the beginning of the season, and Clay Buchholtz will need to give them a big time quality start in Game 3. Boston’s bullpen was thought to be their strength this season, but has overall been a bit of a disappointment. When they are on and have control they are devastating, because of the number of power arms they have. Unfortunately they have seemed to disappear in a number of big games down the stretch.

The best news for Anaheim is that their strengths are Boston’s weaknesses. While the Angels have some power hitters, they put more balls in play that should drop for hits against a weak Boston defense. Anaheim also relies on taking walks and speed which works pretty nicely against a Red Sox staff that has control issues right now, and a catching tandem that can’t throw anyone out. The Angels have a fairly strong defense across the board, with Bobby Abreu the only real liability in right field.  The Angels have a strong staff four deep, but its not a dominate playoff staff. The best thing going for it is the two lefties (Kazmir and Saunders) that should make Big Papi completely ineffective in Boston. Which is huge considering he hit two-thirds of his home runs at Fenway this year, and batted 50 points higher. If he’s out then that means that Varitek is likely starting (with V-Mart at 1B,  Youk at 3B, and Lowell DH’ing) hurting the lineup offensively and defensively.

The bad news for the Angels is in the end they are still going up against a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia,Youkilis, Bay, V-Mart, Lowell, and Drew. Not to mention facing a battery of Lester and Beckett in the first two games, with Papelbon closing the door. I do think in the star power and experience of the Red Sox will in out in the end. No they might not have the best bench, or defense. And there are more questions in their lineup and bullpen than in years past. But at the end of the day they are still the Boston Red Sox, and at the end of the series I think they will be advancing after squeaking by 3-2 in the matchup.

Talk about October drama, after 162 games of baseball the AL Central is all tied up and down to one final play-in game between the Minnesota Twins and the Detroit Tigers to determine the winner. The loser goes home and the winner gets to play the New York Yankees in the Division Series. This is the second straight year the Twins have had to play a 163rd game, last year they lost in Chicago, which created a rule change. In the past in situations like this home field for these one game playoffs were determined by a coin flip, now head to head record is taken into account.

This game has a lot of significance to Minnesota and their fans. Not only are they trying to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss, and return to the postseason, but this is the Twins last year in the Metrodome, their home since 1982. If they win tonight they can extend the life of baseball in the dome a little while longer. Not only do the Twins have home field advantage, but the fans tonight will be extra excited to send the Metrodome out in style (the Vikings winning last night couldn’t have hurt either). The Twins hope the magic of their fans can propel them to a third World Series crown in the dome.

For the Tigers combating this date with destiny is a 20-year old rookie pitcher Rick Porcello. Two years ago at this time Porcello was an 18-year old kid, who had just been rewarded a $7 million dollar signing bonus out of high school, and was preparing for his first professional season. Now he is pitching the biggest game of the year (and by far his career) for the Tigers. High school pitchers NEVER jump to the majors this quickly, usually it takes them 3-5 years of minor league seasoning to be ready for the show. Porcello needed just one, and at High-A ball no less, which is a major step down from Major League competition. Regardless of tonight’s outcome Porcello is a great pitcher, who has a brilliant future. For the Tigers sake, they hope he has at least one more great game in his rookie year, otherwise 2009 will be the year the Tigers collapsed.

The Central race has been a battle all season and for most of the year it was a three horse race, with the Chicago White Sox involved as well. In September the Tigers began to separate themselves, and on September 6th they held a 7-game lead. The Tigers had even more control, when with four games to go, and Detroit’s magic number at 2, the Tigers played host to the Twins. If Detroit won that game last week, it would have given them the the Central Division. Even with that loss the Tigers needed to take just 2 out of 3 from the White Sox at home, and were only able to squeak by with a victory in Sunday’s game. Not to take anything away from Minnesota, but if they end up playing the Yankees, it won’t be a case of them winning the Central, as much as it is the Tigers losing it.

I think the Tigers can win this game, and I do have faith in the rookie to get the job done, but boy do they have to overcome a lot tonight. The Twins have the momentum and the home field, in the end I think that will be enough to extend the Twins season a little while longer (Joe Mauer doesn’t hurt either). Look for the Twins to win a close one late 6-5 and advance to play the Yankees in the first round.

Peter Gammons of ESPN had an interesting take today when he suggested expanding the number of teams that make the playoffs in baseball. His idea is one that hopefully gains some traction, because it is long overdue. Gammons suggests that they have a second Wild Card team and there is a three game “play-in” series in each league. I think it is highly intriguing, but say why stop there, and why limit it to a three game series?

The fact that only four teams in each league make the postseason is ridiculous (while we are at it can we expand by two teams so both leagues are even, and go to 4 divisions like the NFL). The NBA and NHL both have 30 teams like baseball and they have 16 teams make the playoffs, they also have ‘best of series’ showing its possible for baseball to expand as well. Now 8 teams per league would be too much, but going to an NFL format, where six teams (per league) make it and the top two division leaders get a bye in round one, makes a lot of sense. I would like to see the battle for three Wild Card spots (two if they did move to four 4-team divisions per league, but I shouldn’t get too greedy) opposed to what we have this year, when the playoffs are predetermined with 10 days to go (with the exception of the AL Central).

When you think about it an MLB season is twice as long as the NHL’s or NBA’s (in games played), and 10 times as long as the NFL, yet 22 teams don’t have a chance to win the World Series. I think we should expand the number of teams, not just to benefit the fans interest in the waning months of the season, or to help small market teams compete, but to add another incentive for teams to compete all they way to the end. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers might have acquired talent at the trade deadline this year, if their playoff chances were that much better. Its not just small to mid-market teams that would change their strategy, look at the New York Mets, their season went off the tracks early with a number of big injuries. By the time the trade deadline rolled around the Phillies were entrenched in first, which left the Mets competing with about 7 other teams for the NL’s one Wild Card spot. They decided, and rightly so, that with little chance of making the playoffs they would essentially ’punt’ on the rest of the season, and not give up any prospects in trades. Now if their post season chances were higher, they might have made some moves and been in the chase. The one detractor that most people say is that by extending the post season, baseball will go on until mid-November. I don’t think that has to be true, and with a few simple changes the problem can be solved. First I think you do what Gammons suggested and start the season half a week earlier. Next you eliminate at least two of the off days that teams get in April. Then you eliminate some of the off days that are already built into the playoff schedule. Right now there is only one ‘travel’ day built into the World Series, yet there are 3-4 built into the Divisional and Championship Series. Eliminate those and you have plenty of time for an extra round of playoffs. Which among other reasons to sell owners on expanding, will add millions of dollars in national television and radio money, to all baseball teams, not just the 12 in the playoffs.