New York Jets:

1. Run The Ball: It’s not going to be easy as the Steelers have the best run defense in the league, but the Jets bread and butter is running the ball. If the Jets have any shot of winning this game, they have to be able to move the ball on the ground. If they can get 100+ yards they have a good chance of winning this game.

2. Mark Sanchez Needs To Play Like A Franchise QB: The Jets are a great football team despite having average (at best) quarterback play. For the Jets to win this championship game they need Sanchez to live up to the hype and have a great game. He stepped up in the second half of the Patriots game and he will need to do the same today. If Sanchez has a big game, then New York could upset the Steelers.

3. Attack The Offense: The Jets need their defense to come up with some big plays. New York doesn’t have the offense to win this game on their own, so this defense will need to step up to slow down the Steelers offense. Not only will the Jets have to slow down the Steelers offense, but I think they will need a couple big turnovers to win this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

1. Blitzburgh: Mark Sanchez really has been pretty average thus far in his career, and when you put pressure on him he will make big time mistakes. The Steelers need to do what they do best and blitz him nonstop. Pittsburgh needs to keep the pressure on the young quarterback, and they should expect a couple of turnovers.

2. Attack the Safeties: The Jets have the best corners in the league, but their safeties can be beaten. The Steelers need to attack the center of the field and get some big plays against those safeties.

3. Stop The Run Cold: The Steelers have the best run defense in the league, and they have to ensure they get the job done today. If the Jets find a way to run tonight, it could be a long day in Pittsburgh, but if the run defense comes though then Mark Sanchez has to win this game, which he probably isn’t capable of doing.

Prediction: Steelers 27-17

It’s a “Hard Knock(s)” life in Jets camp, and I’m thinking the team might regret opening up their camp to the exposure of the HBO show, when their best player is not in camp. And lets be fully honest here, Revis is by far their best player. While they succeeded last year due to new coaching, defense, and an impressive running game, Revis’s play stood out. If there was one single player the Jets couldn’t have lived without last season it was Darrell Revis. While they have made great strides on offense and defense this season, their Super Bowl dreams are very dependent on Revis being there every week.

While usually I don’t really support holdouts I can see where Revis is coming from here and am more surprised that the Jets haven’t already addressed this issue. All offseason we knew that Revis was unhappy and wanted a new deal, but I can’t believe it has come to a holdout. Especially since the team has worked out a new deal with D’Brickshaw Ferguson and extensions to both the head coach and general manager. Ferguson is a very good player, but he isn’t on the ‘one of a kind’ level of Revis. I think the Jets have dropped the ball here, and need to pick it up again before any lasting damage is done.

Now I don’t think Revis will get the $17+ million a year that he wants just yet (except on the open market), but the Jets at the very least should try to increase his compensation for the remainder of his current contract (3 years) and possibly try to tack on a 4th year. That way Revis gets paid, and the Jets possibly get an extra year. Even if Revis isn’t amenable to the extra year, adding some money to keep your star player happy is a pretty good idea. If they don’t or agree to a 1 year fix, this problem will return and eventually Revis will leave via free agency.

I realize this is a rough year with contract extensions and re-working contracts, but both the Broncos and 49ers took care of their star players and the Titans found a 1-year fix with Chris Johnson. Things can get done if the Jets want them to, they just need to get creative.

Right now there isn’t a defensive player more valuable in the league than Darrell Revis. And I’d take it a step further and say that outside of Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, I don’t know if there is another player more valuable to his team than Revis. And the Jets can talk about leverage all they want, but with the HBO show filming and them opening a new stadium this year (If you are going to charge $20K seat license you should probably pay your best player) the Jets need to make this work. My guess is it will get done within the next week, but it is a PR battle I don’t think the Jets are ready to win, so the sooner it ends the better for New York.

Colts Heading to the Big Game:

Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets have been the underdog team throughout this year’s postseason. Now their road to the Super Bowl goes through (ends) in the place where in many ways it started. After a tough Week 15 loss to the Falcons, the Jets playoff hopes were all but over. They had to win their next game, which just so happened to be at Indianapolis. At the time the Colts were 14-0, and seemed likely to keep up the intensity for at least one more week (at least that is what I believed building my fantasy roster that week). Instead with a 5-point lead in the 3rd quarter, the Colts pulled their starters, and the Jets responded, winning 29-15.

That victory propelled the Jets on their unbelievable playoff run (pretty sure the Bengals and Chargers have taken the Colts off their Christmas card list) that will now come full circle. The Jets have won with defense, running the ball, and a little bit of luck, and will need all three factors in place today if they hope to overcome their playoff benefactor. This time though the Jets will have to contain Peyton Manning and company for 60 minutes, and that is a task that no one has been able to accomplish this season.

The Jets defense is great and one of the best we’ve seen, but so is the Manning and the Colts offense. New York will get after Manning and try to disrupt his timing, but he is so smart back there I don’t think they have a chance. While Darrelle Revis will probably take away Reggie Wayne for most of the game, the Colts have too many other weapons. In fact the best defense against the Colts scoring attack is the Jets own offense.

As long as the Jets offense is on the field, Manning is not and their defense can stay rested. Time of possession usually is something that is unimportant to the Colts (they won a game earlier this season with having the ball less than 15 minutes), but against the Jets that could be an exception. The Jets defense is good enough to slow down Colts to the point where they will need all the possessions they can get. The problem with the Jets is their offense won’t be able to control the clock, with long time consuming drives. While they are an excellent running team, they lack the passing attack to be complete. So far they’ve relied on big break-away runs, which are nice and worth 6 points like any touchdown, but not the sustained drives that they need. Putting up points is always good, but taking minutes off the clock is just as important.

In the end Manning will be too much for the Jets defense to handle. And while the Jets’ ground game may find some success, their lack of a passing attack will end up being the key today. Colts win 21-10 and begin packing for Miami.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet:

The New Orleans Saints Will Earn their First Super Bowl Birth:

The Minnesota Vikings have not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976, and the New Orleans Saints have not sniffed the Super Bowl in their franchise’s history. In 2007 the Saints played in their first NFC Championship – a game in which the Chicago Bears handled them with ease by the score of 39-14. In short, both franchises are overdue for a Super Bowl appearance. Unfortunately, one team has to be sent home on Sunday.

The Saints have been the team to beat over the course of the regular season, and they are the top playoff seed. Drew Brees has led one of the most prolific offenses in football, and the fast-paced aerial attack will be a different animal for the Vikings’ defense. Brees has been connecting with an assortment of talented receivers this season, and Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. Along with their production, Reggie Bush has been a major spark on both offense and special teams, and last week against the Cardinals, Bush looked dominant with 217 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. Bush is the quintessential X-factor for the Saints.

The Vikings are coming off a dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys. In their 34-3 win, they proved that not only can they beat a good team, but they can dominate a good team on both sides of the ball. Their defense shut down a stellar offense, and Brett Favre led the Vikings down the field with ease against what looked like the best defense in the playoffs. The Vikings stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but they bounced back resoundingly.

The Saints and Vikings are clearly the two best teams in the NFC, and Sunday’s match-up will be a narrowly decided game. The key to Minnesota winning comes down to how much pressure they can get on Brees. Last week, Jared Allen led the defensive line with an unyielding amount of pressure on Tony Romo, and if he can replicate his performance against the Saints, the Vikings will win. The Saints, though, have a better offensive line, and Brees delivers the ball much quicker than Romo, so it will be exponentially more difficult for the Vikings to shut down the Saints’ offense. Furthermore, Reggie Bush looked dominant last week, and when he is healthy, he adds yet another dimension to the Saints’ attack. Minnesota will not find the same success on defense this week, and the Saints will win at home for their first Super Bowl birth. Final Score: New Orleans 33 Minnesota 28.

Three blowouts and one great game if you like offense, that is all you need to know to summarize this weekend’s playoffs. Overall though I can’t complain, because every team I was rooting for won. A couple quick points I want to make about the games this weekend:

–For all the talk about this being a quarterback league and that you need a franchise quarterback to win the big games, defense and the run game were the difference in the first round. The four highest paid QB’s in the first round all are going home and of those matchups you can really only say that Romo was better than McNabb (and that is a pretty close comparison). Though Warner is a ‘franchise’ guy, and Flacco and Sanchez could one day be as well, none of them were the best quarterback on the field.

–Running game and defense were the difference in ALL the games.

While you wouldn’t think the Cards could play defense with the way they were torched by Rodgers, they made two big plays early, as well as the fumble return that won the game in overtime. They also put more consistent pressure on Rodgers than the Packers defense did on Warner. The Cards out gained the Packers on the ground 156-90. The Ravens defense absolutely dominated the Patriots from start to finish, they forced four turnovers and had Brady completely confused. They won with just 34 yards through the air (Flacco had a 10.0 QB rating!), because they controlled the running game 234-64.

As for the Saturday games: The Cowboys forced four turnovers, and also chipped in with four sacks. They out gained the Eagles 198-54 on the ground. The Jets game is the one exception as they didn’t out rush the Bengals, both teams finished with 171 yards, but the Jets defense controlled that game from start to finish, with 3 sacks and forcing two turnovers. For the Bengals, running the ball is the only way they could move it (not good when they spent most of the game trailing) as Darrelle Revis absolutely shutdown Chad Ochocinco.

–Another interesting thing was of the three repeat matchups from week 17, only the Cardinals changed their fortune: We heard all week how you should take the results from week 17 with a grain of salt, because the playoffs are different, or they ran vanilla offenses, or that the Bengals, Eagles and Cards were resting their players, or that they weren’t trying because they had nothing to play for (even though the Eagles definitely did have something to play for). Despite all the talk and rhetoric all week, the exact same result happened when the Bengals and the Eagles got on the field this weekend (and the Bengals were now at home).

–The thing I love the most, is the four teams that were considered the “sleepers” or “dark horses” are now out of it: All year we heard about the Patriots being back this year, now that Brady was healthy New England was going to pick up where they left off in 2007. And the talk didn’t die down when they lost to the Colts or the Saints, or a few other games a ‘dominate’ team should have won. Instead it turned to how they would be a different team in the postseason, and a team that could go to the Super Bowl. In reality they weren’t a great team and got blown out yesterday (how hard is it to figure out the Raven’s offense: run right, run right, run left, run center, run right?).

The Bengals all season we heard how they were a new team with a ground game and defense to go along with Palmer and Ochocinco. Well the running game worked, but Palmer was off all day on Saturday. And what happened to that defense, not only did the Jets run over them, but they couldn’t figure out the Jets simple passing attack or get any pressure on Sanchez (has anyone ever seen two more simplistic offenses than the Ravens and Jets be successful in the playoffs??).

In the NFC, for a long time the Eagles became a favorite third option for all the analysts who didn’t want to pick a front runner. And Philly looked like an even better pick once the Vikings and Saints started struggling down the stretch. They looked anything but a Super Bowl contender on Saturday. The Packers became another favorite pick down the stretch, despite the fact questions about their O-line, pass defense and running game hadn’t been answered. All the talk of how they were a new team after the Cowboys game and that if they faced the Vikings and Favre again the outcome would be different is all for naught.

1. Indianapolis Colts- I don’t know if anyone can stop Peyton Manning right now. He is playing on a different level than anyone else.

2. Baltimore Ravens- Teams are moving the ball on the Ravens defense, but Baltimore’s offense is playing like one of the elite units in the league this year.

3. New York Giants- The Giants have already taken a two game lead in the division. If they weren’t so banged up with injuries they would be ranked #2.

4. New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees and the Saints are on fire on offense. So far their defense has held up, but they’ve only really be challenged once so far.

5. New York Jets- Mark Sanchez has played like a veteran so far, not like the 5th overall pick. The Jets defense has been unrelenting so far, and is among the top 5 in the league.

6. Minnesota Vikings- Favre still has some magic of old. Combine that with Peterson and a tough defense, and the Vikings are a legit contender.

7. New England Patriots- The Pats have played two bad games, but they looked good Sunday against Atl. If Brady and the Pats are back they will be dangerous for the rest of the season.

8. Cincinnati Bengals- The Bengals are one freak play away from being 3-0, Cincinnati and Palmer could be back in the playoff hunt this year.

9. Philadelphia Eagles- The Eagles have beaten up on a pair of weak teams, and lost to one contender. I wouldn’t be as concerned except I don’t know how long McNabb will be out/ineffective.

10. Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons had a chance to prove they were an elite team Sunday, but they couldn’t keep up with the Pats. They need to play more fundamental football to prove they are a true contender.

11. Green Bay Packers- The Packers offense looks to be back this year, but they can’t afford to get beat like they did by the Bengals two weeks ago again.

12. Denver Broncos- The Broncos may be 3-0, but they beat the Bengals on a lucky play and then beat up on the hapless Raiders and Browns. Not sure if their talent matches their record.

13. San Diego Chargers- They squeaked by Oakland, then split a pair of home games with the Ravens and Dolphins. Until LT and the ground game come back I think the Chargers are in trouble. Also Merriman is banged up as well, leaving some questions on defense.

14. Dallas Cowboys- The Cowboys haven’t really looked to comfortable at home these last two weeks (never a good sign), and the injuries in the backfield are piling up.

15. Chicago Bears- The Bears had an impressive win against the Steelers, but I don’t know if Cutler is going to lead this team to the playoffs.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers- The Steelers haven’t looked good since they lost Polumalu to an injury. Their running game and kicking game have been struggling as well. It could be a long road to repeat as champions in 2009.

17. San Francisco 49ers- The 49ers could easily be 3-0, but with Frank Gore now out for a couple weeks it could be a long October. The defense has been impressive, but Shaun Hill can’t win without a running game.

18. Arizona Cardinals- The Cards need to keep Warner upright, who has been hit more often than not. They haven’t established a running game yet either despite adding Beanie Wells.

19. Houston Texans- The Texans offense is clicking, but their defense is letting lesser offenses control the game.

20. Buffalo Bills- The Bills haven’t been able to close out games, though should get a boost with the return of Marshawn Lynch on offense.

21. Washington Redskins- The Skins have been playing down to their competition and its cost them dearly. They have the talent to compete, but haven’t shown it on the field. They will need to win their next 3 games to get back into contention.

22. Tennessee Titans- Tennessee may be 0-3, but they have been in every game and could just as easily be 3-0. They have a long way to get back into the playoff hunt, but the talent is there.

23. Seattle Seahawks- Seattle is hurting right now with Hasselbeck out, and two of there starting linebackers missing time as well. Their defense isn’t good enough to compete right now.

24. Detroit Lions- The Lions got their first win on Sunday, and showed an impressive defense and running game. If Stafford can eliminate the mistakes they can stay competitive in games.

25. Carolina Panters- Delhomme has been pretty bad so far, and its left the Panthers 0-3. This looks like a completely different team than the one that dominated the NFC in 2008, despite having almost the same starting 22.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars- The Jags got their first win on Sunday, but things look pretty bad in Jacksonville. Garrard isn’t a true NFL quarterback, and with the exception of Jones-Drew the Jaguars don’t have the supporting cast around him. Their pass defense has been their biggest weakness this year.

27. Oakland Raiders- The Raiders already beat the Chiefs, and were two minutes away from knocking off the Chargers as well. They are a bad team overall, but have some talent to catch a team by surprise.

28. Miami Dolphins- The Dolphins would have been a dangerous 0-3 team, if not for the injury to QB Chad Pennington. Backup Chad Henne can’t handle the Dolphins tough schedule.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- The Bucs are starting a brand new quarterback, right now anything could be better than the numbers Leftwich has put up.

30. Kansas City Chiefs- The fact that the Chiefs weren’t able to beat Oakland at home doesn’t bode well for the rest of their season.

31. Cleveland Browns- The Browns have no quarterback, running game or defense right now. Things can’t get much worse in Cleveland right now.

32. St. Louis Rams- At least the Rams have Steven Jackson to give their fans something to watch. Right now the Rams are in the lead for the Sam Bradford sweepstakes, which is fun and exciting in April, but depressing in October.

With yesterday’s news that Chad Pennington is out for the year with a shoulder injury, Miami’s season effectively came to an abrupt close. The Dolphins who fell to 0-3 on Sunday, now will have to face perhaps the league’s toughest schedule without their top signal caller. The Dolphins who started out the year at Atlanta, home against the Colts, and then at San Diego, now get a pair of home games against the resurgent Jets and Bills, who are both playing their best football in years. The Dolphins still have the Saints, Texans, Steelers, and Patriots twice on their schedule (not to mention facing the Jets and the Bills on the road). This season is quickly shaping into a disaster. Just one year removed from the postseason, the Dolphins are looking at going back into the AFC East cellar and a potential top-10 draft pick come next April with Chad Henne at the helm.

I know there are those Dolphins/football fans who probably think that losing Pennington isn’t such a big deal. But facts are facts, and the truth of the matter is Chad Pennington is a good quarterback and a proven winner. Any time he starts 10 or more games in a season, his team makes the playoffs. Any time that he hasn’t started at least 10 games (since he became a starter in 2002) his team has finished last or tied for last in the AFC East. Now no one is ever going to mistake Pennington for Manning or Brady, but at the same time they won’t mistake Henne for Pennington as well. I have absolutely no confidence in Chad Henne being the answer in Miami. I know he is a Parcells guy, and the “heir apparent”, but I just don’t see it with Henne. I’ve never thought that he is anything more than a solid back up in this league, and definitely not a starter on a playoff caliber team. Henne just doesn’t seem to make quick reads or good decisions when he has the ball in his hands. And if his performance Sunday against the Chargers was an indication of things to come, its going to be a long season in Miami this year. Unfortunately for Miami fans its going to get much worse before it gets better. I think Miami will finish with a top-10 pick, and will probably be in the market for a new “heir apparent” come next April. 

With that being said, there are a lot of other very surprising 0-3 or 1-2 teams in the NFL right now.  Which teams can turn their season around and which teams should start preparing for the April draft?

Yesterday was an interesting day around the NFL. The AFC in particular had an interesting day. The four teams that were expected to win their divisions (New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, and the San Diego Chargers) all lost yesterday. The Patriots and Chargers, who barely escaped upsets last Monday night, weren’t so lucky in week 2 with the short week of rest. Both teams entered this season as division favorites and contenders for the Super Bowl, but through two games they have had to play catch up against “inferior” opponents. The Steelers also fell to 1-1 after losing to the Chicago Bears on a last minute field goal, one week after winning with a field goal in overtime. The vaunted Steelers defense was ineffective against the Bears, and couldn’t make the big stops when needed. The Titans fell to 0-2 after losing to their division rival Houston Texans 34-31. The Titans were up 21-7 early in the 2nd quarter, and got over 280 yards of total offense from running back Chris Johnson, but the Texans passing attack was too much for them to handle. Now a team that started this season with their eyes on the Super Bowl, now are just looking for a win.

What’s even more surprising than who lost was who actually won yesterday. After two weeks only three AFC teams will start off the season 2-0 (the Colts will be the fourth if they win tonight). This is a bit surprising considering the AFC is considered the stronger overall conference (the NFC has five teams that are 2-0). What’s even more surprising is who the three teams are with a spotless record in the AFC, the New York Jets, Denver Broncos and the Baltimore Ravens. Now the Ravens aren’t too surprising, they were a playoff team last year, and while they had some losses on defense their offense looked pretty strong entering the year. The Jets and the Broncos on the other hand are a bit more shocking. Both teams experienced a lot of turnover in the offseason. Each team bringing in among others, a new head coach and starting quarterback. The Broncos early success should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt. They have faced the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns, two teams that aren’t exactly expected to be in the playoff hunt this season. The Broncos also would have lost to the Bengals if not for a fluke last second 87 yard touchdown. While its easy to question the staying power of the Broncos, they are the division leader, and two wins are more than most teams have right now. The Jets on the other hand seem a bit more for real, and what’s scary for the rest of the AFC East is they should only get better. The Jets decisively beat the Texans in Houston in week 1, a team that figured to be a playoff contender. New York followed that up knocking off the New England Patriots in week 2, and holding the Patriots high-powered offense to just 9 points. The Jets defense which hasn’t allowed a touchdown in two weeks, should get better with a fully healthy DE Shaun Ellis, and the return of LB Calvin Pace after his four week suspension. On offense the Jets dual running attack has moved the ball effectively in both weeks. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has made major strides, and has put the Jets in a position to win both games. He hasn’t dominated the competition by any means, but he has shown plenty of poise and the ability to make plays when needed. If he continues to mature throughout the season, the Jets could make a deep run into the playoffs.

While nothing can really be determined after two weeks, the AFC balance for power is not shaping up how anyone expected. Some of the conference’s top contenders, are looking more and more like pretenders. While some of the teams that were overlooked going into the season, are looking like teams that need to be taken seriously for the remaining 14 weeks.

Going into last night Monday Night Football seemed like it was going to be a snoozer, even with two games. Both match ups featured a Super Bowl contender (New England and San Diego), versus a lowly divisional opponent (Buffalo and Oakland). No one gave the Bills or Raiders any chance of pulling an upset, not the sports polls, not Vegas, and certainly not me. In fact Vegas even predicated that the Patriots and Chargers would each win their games by double digits. I guess no one told the Bills and Raiders they didn’t have a chance, because both the Pats and the Chargers both had to have 4th quarter comebacks in the last two minutes to overcome their divisional foes.

For 55 minutes last night Tom Brady looked like the quarterback who couldn’t secure a starting job at Michigan and lasted until the 6th round of the 2000 Draft. Brady’s throws were high and erratic, he couldn’t move around in the pocket, and he threw a costly interception that was returned for a touchdown by DE Aaron Schobel. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Brady that led the Patriots to 4 Super Bowl’s this decade returned for the last five minutes of the game. Brady connected with TE Ben Watson for a pair of touchdowns in the final two minutes to overcome the Bills 25-24. Brady may have never gotten the opportunity for the second trip into the endzone if Bills return man Leodis McKelvin hadn’t fumbled the kick-off (or if he had just kneeled down in the endzone for the touchback) with two minutes to go. The fumble gave the Patriots the ball on the Bills 30 with two minutes to go and the sure victory slipped away for good.

The late game was even more surprising last night as the Raiders not only hung with the Chargers, but led most of the way. The Raiders who have the worst record of any franchise since 2003 (including the the Lions) took San Diego to the limit last night. Every time the Chargers scored to tie the game or take a lead, the Raiders battled back and retook the lead. After Rivers drove down and threw a touchdown pass with 7 minutes to go it looked like the Chargers might hang on to win 17-13. The Chargers’ defense knocked QB JaMarcus Russell out of the game, and it looked like hope was lost. Things looked even bleaker when Russell returned a few plays later. The Raiders were facing a 4th and 15 from their own 43, with 2:40 remaining. The safe play would have been to punt it and hope that you can stop the Chargers from getting a first down. The smart play would have been to try for the first down, or even set up a screen pass to Darren McFadden. The Raiders elected for the bold play, and Russell executed a perfect 57 yard touchdown strike to rookie WR Louis Murphy. Now if only the game had ended there, the Russell and the Raiders would be the most talked about team all week. Unfortunately Phillip Rivers got his hands on the ball again and he drove the Chargers 90 yards for the game winning touchdown by Darren Sproles.

In the end the Patriots and Chargers came away with a win, and now sit atop their respective divisions like everyone expected. Although their record remains untarnished, their reputation is not. No one who watched last night’s games believed that these two teams are the teams to beat in the AFC. If the Patriots and Chargers want to contend for the Super Bowl, they will need to start playing like it, as their luck won’t last forever.

Bills at Patriots: This is a game that has plenty of hype and coverage, and pretty much none of it has to do with the match up. No one really expects the Buffalo Bills to upset the New England Patriots. The Patriots have a better, offense, defense, special teams and coaching staff than their division rivals. New England is favored by double digits, and should have no problem proving Vegas right. The real story lines here are two individual players; Tom Brady and Terrell Owens.

Brady returns to returns to regular season action for the first time since last year’s week one, when he went down with a knee injury. Despite a winning record and a pretty good offense behind his replacement, Matt Cassel, most Patriot fans feel like they didn’t have the chance to follow up on their 19-0 18-1 season. Now Brady is back and New England can rejoice, they’re once again a major Super Bowl contender, and the favorite in their division. Tonight the spotlight is on number 12 tonight, if he plays like the Tom Brady of the past then the Patriots run away with this game, and possibly the division.

Owens has his own version of redemption tonight, as he looks to prove his doubters wrong. Owens was released from the Cowboys this offseason, not due to lack of production or salary issues, but because of his effect in the locker room. T.O. needs to rebuild his image, and be a good citizen in Buffalo to prove that he wasn’t the reason for Dallas’s collapse last season. Owens should help the Bills offense be more potent this year with just his presence on the field. He will allow Lee Evans to get more open on the other side of the field. With a stronger passing game the Buffalo running game should be more effective as well (once Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension). Owens will have his work cut out for him in week one against the New England defense. More likely than not, no matter what T.O. does tonight the Patriots will win the game, but if Owens can have a big game then it will show the Bills are a contender and Owens is on his way to being reborn. Look for New England to win easy at home 35-17.

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots

2. Miami Dolphins*

3. Buffalo Bills

4. New York Jets

The Patriots right now are in control of this division with Brady back and some key additions to the secondary and running back positions. I don’t think New England will run away with this division though. I think both the Dolphins and Bills will contend for the first half of the season. I’m not to worried about Miami facing a tougher schedule this season, I still think 10 wins is something they are capable of attaining. As for the Bills, the addition of T.O. should help them, but probably won’t get them over the hump this season. Even though I love the Jets defense, its hard to imagine that they can win more than 6-7 games with a rookie quarterback and no real top wide receivers.

AFC North:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. Baltimore Ravens*

3. Cleveland Browns

4. Cincinnati Bengals

In some ways the Steelers might be better this season then they were last year during their Super Bowl run. They are healthier and more balanced at running back, and should have an improved offensive line. They also put an emphasis on special teams this off season, and with the return of punter Daniel Sepulveda, their biggest weakness last season should be a strength this year. The Ravens are a good team that should only be getting better as Flacco matures. Their defense is still top notch and this could be the year their offense matches their production. It should be a neck and neck race to the finish again to see who wins the North. The Browns need to decide on a quarterback (it should be Brady Quinn), and start developing for the future. Right now they are a team that lacks direction and any chance of contending for the North. The Bengals are very similar to the Browns in their ineptness. Palmer is back, but this isn’t the same team he led to the playoffs a few years ago. There is some reason to hope for a better future, but not much hope for this season.

AFC South:

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. Tennessee Titans

3. Houston Texans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts may have lost their all-time leading receiver, but Manning shouldn’t have any problems finding someone to throw to with Wayne, Clark and Gonzalez all still there. Adding Donald Brown at running back to go along with Addai, should give the Colts a more balanced offense. I think that while the Titans will compete for a wild card spot, they are going to come up just short this season. They have one of the best running games in the league, but I can’t see Kerry Collins putting up another year like the one he had last season. The Titans needed to add more play makers at wideout and I don’t think Nate Washington will be enough of an addition (I’m not a Kenny Britt fan and I think he could end up being a bust). On defense Haynesworth left some big shoes that so far remain unfilled. While they will still be a good defense, I doubt they will be as dominate. The Titans defensive backfield also remains an area of concern, without any true bona fide star. The Texans are a team on the rise, and could surpass Tennesse this year. If Schaub can stay healthy and Slaton and Andre Johnson play like they can, Houston will be tough to beat and will surprise some teams this year. Their defense gets better every year, and could end up being the best in this division. I think it will be a rough year in Jacksonville, they have some offensive talent in Jones-Drew and Holt, but until Garrard shows consistency this team will be in trouble. Their offensive line should be much improved, but their is still some concern at guard. On defense the Jags have so much talent, but haven’t lived up to their high expectations. I don’t see them finishing better than 7-9 unless Garrard proves he’s an NFL starting quarterback.

AFC West:

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Denver Broncos

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Oakland Raiders

This is by far the worst division in the NFL. The Raiders, Chiefs, and Broncos could all end up drafting in the top 5 next April (which is pretty bad for Denver since they traded that pick to the Seahawks). The Raiders have major questions at just about every position except running back and corner back. This team lacks all direction and I think it will be tough for them to win more than 3-4 games (and don’t be shocked if those are against other division opponents). The Chiefs have a lot of work to do, their ‘Fanchise’ QB is injured (and ineffective when he was playing), their offensive line is pretty awful, and their running back situation is murky at best. They do have some talent at running back in Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles, but they were horribly inconsistent last season and will need to improve this year. They do have one star in WR Dewayne Bowe, but without a second receiving option his numbers will likely decline. Kansas City’s defense isn’t in much better shape than their offense. They have a few guys with potential, but the reality is they are going to be running a 3-4 defense with 4-3 personell. Denver is another team with their own host of issues. Their best player (Brandon Marshall) is suspended and doesn’t want to play for them.  They took a page out of the Chiefs playbook and changed their defense to a 3-4 without the players to do so.  And they have a rookie coach who is in way over his head. The Broncos offense this year could be anemic. Without Marshall and Cutler, Denver’s big play ability has taken a hit. While I like Orton and think he can lead the troops, right now the Broncos resemble F Troop more than an actual military machine. Their offensive line is weak in the interior and outside of Eddie Royal there isn’t a good play maker on offense. Knowshon Moreno has some talent, but I don’t know if he’s the answer for Denver. On defense the Broncos do have some hope, especially with Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins in the secondary. Their front seven is weak outside of Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams. The Chargers should run away with this division, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they are 6-0 against the rest of the West. The Chargers have a ton of talent on offense, and will have no trouble scoring points all season. Their defense still has a few question marks, but on paper they are a team capable of challenging for a Super Bowl berth.

Offensive Player of the year: QB Peyton Manning. Even without Harrison its hard to bet against Manning. He is poised to shatter just about every passing record in the books. He should have a big year this season, now with the added depth at running back. Runners up: Tom Brady, Andre Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew

Defensive Player of the year: DE Mario Williams. There are a number of obvious candidates, but Williams has gotten better every year and I think this year he proves once and for all that he was the best player in the 2006 draft. Runners up: Ed Reed, LaMarr Woodley, Troy Polamalu

Offensive Rookie of the year: OT Michael Oher. Its not a sexy pick, but I don’t think another offensive player will have the impact that Oher will have for the Ravens. He should shore up their line and will likely be a part of every play during their Super Bowl push, how many other rookies can say that. Runners up: Donald Brown, Mark Sanchez

Defensive Rookie of the year: DT Fili Moala. The Colts last year had talent at defensive end, linebacker, corner back and safety, the one thing they lacked was a run-stopping, offensive lineman occupying defensive tackle. They might have found exactly that in 2nd round pick Moala. He’s not going to get double digit sacks or be voted to the Pro Bowl, but he fills the Colts biggest need. Runners up: Larry English, Brian Cushing, Conner Barwin