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2010 NFL Draft Outlook: Wide Receivers

February 11, 2010 in NFL Mock Draft by Steve Shoup

1. Dez Bryant-OK State: 1st round

2. Damien Williams-USC: 1st-2nd round

3. Golden Tate-Notre Dame: 1st-2nd round

4. Brandon LaFell-LSU: 2nd round

5. Dezmon Briscoe-Kansas: 2nd round

6. Mardy Gilyard-Cincinnati: 2nd round

7. Demaryius Thomas-Georgia Tech: 2nd-3rd round

8. Jordan Shipley-Texas: 3rd round

9. Taylor Pice-Ohio: 3rd round

10. Eric Decker-Minnesota: 3rd round

11. Arrelious Benn-Illinois: 3rd round

12. Andre Roberts-Citadel: 3rd-4th round

13.  Jeremy Williams-Tulane: 4th round

14. David Reed-Utah: 4th round

15. Mike Williams-Syracuse: 4th-5th round

16. Riley Cooper-Florida: 5th round

17. Emmanuel Sanders-SMU: 5th-6th round

18. Jacoby Ford-Clemson: 5th-6th round

19. Danario Alexander-Missouri: 6th round

20. Antonio Brown-Central Michigan: 6th round

21. Carlton Mitchell-South Florida: 6th round

22. Shay Hodge-Ole Miss: 6th-7th round

This year’s receiving class is extremely deep, but not very strong at the top. Dez Bryant is the favorite among the group, but he’s far from a complete receiver. Down the road though he has the potential to be a very good number 1 wideout, which should get him drafted in the 15-20 range of the 1st round.

Damien Williams gets overlooked because he’s not the tallest, strongest or fastest receiver in bunch, but he should not be ignored so quickly. He is an excellent route runner, that possesses elite ball skills and should contribute at the next level right off the bat. His character and work ethic are off the charts as well. He should be a steal at the end of the first round.

Golden Tate and Mardy Gilyard also get overlooked due to their height, but both should be immediate contributors. LaFell is loved in most draft circles and I expect him to be off the board early, but he worries me as a prospect overall. He could develop into a very good receiver, but there is a high bust factor as well for me.

Briscoe and Thomas are two underrated receivers both have the abilities to be top flight wideouts, but are still raw. Thomas especially had his development hindered in Georgia Tech’s option attack. In terms of raw skill Thomas is probably the number 1 player in this class, but his understanding of the nuances and route running ability are well below average.

Another raw player that I’m not nearly as enamored with is Benn. I realize the Illinois quarterback situation was down right awful, but Benn just completely disappeared this season. To be any higher than a late 3rd round prospect, Benn will need to show some impressive workout numbers and hopefully answer questions about his work ethic.

One other name to keep an eye on is David Reed from Utah. Reed had an impressive East-West Shrine Game week. He seems to have a very advanced understanding of what it takes to be a receiver at the next level. My 4th round grade could be pretty bullish, but my guess is 5 years from now people will be wondering why he wasn’t among the top 50 picks in this year’s draft. All-in-all has impressive depth, any of the 22 players I listed could develop into at the very least a solid contributor.

2010 NFL Draft Rankings: Quarterbacks and Running backs

January 22, 2010 in NFL Mock Draft by Steve Shoup

Quarterbacks:

  1. Jimmy Clausen- 1st round, Notre Dame
  2. Sam Bradford- 1st round, Oklahoma
  3. Tony Pike-2nd round, Cincinnati
  4. Colt McCoy-2nd-3rd round, Texas
  5. Tim Tebow-2nd-3rd round, Florida
  6. Jevan Snead-2nd-4th round, Ole Miss
  7. Dan LeFevour-3rd-4th round, Central Michigan
  8. Sean Canfield-4th round, Oregon State
  9. Bill Stull-4th-5th round, Pittsburgh
  10. Jarrett Brown-5th round, West Virginia
  11. John Skelton-5th-6th round, Fordham
  12. Max Hall-6th round BYU
  13. Tim Hiller-7th round, Western Michigan
  14. Zac Robinson-FA, OK State
  15. Joe Webb-FA, UAB
  16. Levi Brown-FA, Troy
  17. Ryan Perrilloux-FA, Jacksonville St
  18. Jon Compton-FA, Tennessee
  19. Mike Kafka-FA, Northwestern

Right now Jimmy Clausen has separated himself from the pack and should be the top quarterback taken in April. His big arm, and ability to play in a more pro style offense moves him ahead of Sam Bradford. Bradford’s arm injury also should give teams in the early part of Round 1 some cause for concern. While there are some holes in their games, I do think both Clausen and and Bradford are first round talents and could be Franchise quarterbacks down the line. While most people think the quarterback talent stops after Bradford in this class, I feel a couple of these arms will surprise some people. It would not shock me at all to see 3-4 of these quarterbacks (outside the first rounders) end up as good starters 3 years from now. Pike and McCoy are the next closest from the bunch, and may be ready to start within a year. Neither one possesses incredible arm strength, but both have the intangibles needed for the NFL. McCoy in particular reminds me of a right-handed Mark Brunell. Jevan Snead has taken a beating for coming out early, but he has all the tools needed to succeed at the next level if he finds a team that will be patient with him. Dan LeFevour I think could be the best quarterback of this group, and I see him developing into a top notch quarterback. LeFevour has a good (but not great) arm, and always makes smart decisions. He also has the mobility and foot speed to pick up chunks of yards on the ground, when nothing is open down field. Two senior quarterbacks, Sean Canfield and Bill Stull, stepped up their games this year and moved themselves into mid-round consideration. As for late-round targets, two names to keep an eye on are John Skelton and Max Hall. Hall is a gamer, and an extremely accurate passer. Unfortunately for Hall he stands just about 6 feet tall, making it unlikely he can transition into the pro game as a starter. Skelton on the other hand has no problems with his 6’5″ size, just his mechanics. His arm strength is spectacular (probably the best in the class), but he is a very raw prospect, that will need plenty of work to turn into a starter.

Running backs:

  1. C.J. Spiller-1st round, Clemson
  2. Jahvid Best-1st-2nd round, California
  3. Jonathan Dwyer-1st-2nd round, Georgia Tech
  4. Montario Hardesty-2nd round, Tennessee
  5. Antonio Dixon-2nd round, Mississippi State
  6. Toby Gerhart-2nd-3rd round, Stanford
  7. Joe McKnight-2nd-3rd round, USC
  8. Ryan Mathews- 2nd-3rd round, Fresno State
  9. Ben Tate-3rd round, Auburn
  10. Charles Scott-3rd-4th round, LSU
  11. Javarris James-4th round, Miami
  12. James Starks-4th-5th round, Buffalo
  13. Dexter McCluster-4th-5th round, Ole Miss
  14. Chris Brown-5th-6th round, Oklahoma
  15. Stafon Johnson-6th round, USC
  16. Keiland Williams, 6th round, LSU
  17. LeGarrett Blount,6th-7th round, Oregon
  18. Curtis Steele, 7th round, Memphis
  19. Damion Fletcher, 7th round, Southern Miss
  20. Keith Totson, 7th round, OK State
  21. Shawnbrey McNeal, 7th round, SMU
  22. Brandon Minor, 7th round, Michigan
  23. Brandon James, 7th round, Florida
  24. Joique Bell, 7th round-FA, Wayne State
  25. Trindon Holliday, 7th round-FA, LSU

This year’s running back class, lacks ‘star’ power and overall depth, but has a lot of interesting guys in the top 15. Any of the top 8 backs could be a feature back by year two. Spiller and Best are the home run hitters of this class, and have the added benefit of being return men. Dwyer and Dixon are your grind it out running backs, capable of getting the ball 25 times a game. Hardesty is a tough back that really seems to be getting overlooked in some circles. Gerhart should be in the mix with Dwyer and Dixon, but he’s the type of player that is consistently underrated. He might not have top end speed or the best short shuffle time, but when he runs, he runs like John Riggins and I think he has that high of a ceiling. Ryan Mathews is another back who should probably go higher then I have him rated, and he should have a bright future in the NFL, but he needs to learn some of the finer points of being a running back. His vision and decision making are average at best, and will need to improve to become an every down runner. McKnight is a back that has all the physical skill, size and speed, but lacks the intangibles to be an elite prospect. I still think he’ll come off the board in the 2nd or 3rd round given his pedigree (possibly by his old college coach Pete Carroll), but has a major bust label looming. One mid-round guy that warrants more attention is McCluster, a running back/receiver/return man hybrid. He will never be an every down back at the next level, but should excel in a specialty role (similar to Sproles and L. Washington), and in fact might be even better given his work as a wide receiver. Blount and Fletcher are two late-round guys, who should be going 4-5 rounds higher if not for off the field incidents. If they can show that they have pulled their lives together, they could end up being good late round steals.

Remember this is just a first look at where these guys should rank. We will get into greater detail on players and positions as the draft gets closer.

Top 5 Players for the 2010 NFL Draft: Offense Cont.

October 30, 2009 in NFL Mock Draft by Steve Shoup

Offensive Tackles:

1. Russell Okung

2. Bryan Bulaga*

3. Charles Brown

4. Bruce Campbell*

5. Trent Williams

Offensive tackle is one of the strongest positions in this draft and Okung is the best of the bunch. He is an all-around great tackle, but really excels in pass protection. Bulaga has the best chance to overtake Okung as the top tackle, but has missed a few games this season due to illness. He is a virtual wall on the left side of the quarterback. Brown is a bit undersized for the next level, but has the skills to be a top flight tackle. No lineman has improved their stock more this season than Campbell. He is rocketing up draft boards and could be the 2nd or 3rd tackle taken. Williams started out the year as the 2nd best tackle, but he’s struggled as he’s trying to transistion to the left side. Overall there is too much natural talent to knock him down below 5th on this list.

Guard:

1. Mike Johnson

2. Mike Iupati

3. Mitch Petrus

4. Jon Asamoah

5. John Jerry

Johnson is the top offensive lineman on one of the top running teams in college football. Iupati is a great run blocker and tough in-line guard. Petrus is a tough blocker, but has a lot of ground to make up after missing all of 2008. Asamoah is a good all around guard and has the potential to be the best of the bunch. He’s tougher to get a read on playing for a weak Illinois team. Jerry is a RT in college, but will need to move inside at the next level. He is a raw talent that needs time before he can be a starter.

Center:

1. Kris O’Dowd*

2. Stefan Wisniewski*

3. John Estes

4. Eric Olsen

5. Matt Tennant

Both O’Dowd or Wisniewski could be 1st round picks if they declare. Estes is a good center prospect that excels with pass blocking. Olsen has taken well to moving to the center spot on the Irish’s line. Tennant is a very good college center prospect, but might be a little light to take on some of the top nose tackles in the league.

Top 5 Players for the 2010 NFL Draft: Offense

October 30, 2009 in NFL Mock Draft by Steve Shoup

QB:

1. Jimmy Clausen*

2. Jake Locker*

3. Sam Bradford*

4. Jevan Snead*

5. Colt McCoy

There has been a lot of movement at the quarterback position this year. Bradford and Snead would have entered the year at the top two spots but have fallen due to ineffectiveness and injury. Clausen has had a meteoric rise this year, and has done it for the most part without his top wide receiver. Locker has shown that he has all the tools needed to be an elite quarterback, but is still raw overall. McCoy doesn’t have the tools the other quarterbacks on this list have, but has the leadership and mentality to play at the next level.

RB:

1. C.J. Spiller

2. Jahvid Best*

3. Jonathan Dwyer*

4. Evan Royster*

5. Toby Gerhart

Spiller has supplanted Best as the top running back in the nation, but it is very close. Both possess world class speed and agility, but so far Spiller has produced more with his talent this season. Dwyer is a great inside runner, but lacks the break away speed of a franchise running back. Gerhart is another pounder, but is often overlooked playing for Stanford. Royster is a very good balanced back, strong enough to run between the tackles, but also has the speed to go outside.

WR:

1. Dez Bryant*

2. Damian Williams*

3. Arrelious Benn*

4. Brandon LaFell

5. Golden Tate*

Dez Bryant won’t play again this season, but already established himself as the top receiver in next year’s draft. Williams is going to give him a run for his money. While not as big and strong as Bryant (or any of the other receivers on this list sans Tate) Williams is a great route runner and an extremely smart receiver. Benn and LaFell have first round talent, but they don’t always produce and sometimes disappear completely from games. They will need strong finishes to their season and good combines to stay in the top 5. Tate is an interesting prospect, though not the fastest player on the field he usually plays like he is. He has done a great job this year being Clausen’s top target with Malcolm Floyd out.

TE:

1. Jermaine Gresham

2. Garrett Graham

3. Ed Dickson

4. Anthony McCoy

5. Dennis Pitta

Gresham is the best tight end in the nation and I don’t think anyone will knock him off that spot (even though he’s out for the season). Graham and Dickson do a little of everything well, but nothing exceptional. McCoy is an interesting case, his talent is there, but the production doesn’t meet up with the ability. Pitta is a guy I love great receiver and all around talent, one knock on him is his age. He lost two years due to his Mormon mission trip and that could cost him a bit on draft day.

NFL Mock Draft: 9/27 picks 1-16

September 28, 2009 in NFL Mock Draft by Steve Shoup

It might be September but it is never too early to start looking at next April’s draft. I’ll post a weekly mock draft, based on team needs. Since its still early in the season I’ll base my draft order on last year’s. As we get deeper into the season, I’ll start basing it on actual standings.

* denotes underclassmen

1. Detroit Lions: Gerald McCoy DT*

I don’t think the Lions will be picking first again, but if they are I can’t see them passing up a talent like McCoy. McCoy is a difference maker along the interior and would be the perfect compliment next to Grady Jackson. The Lions focused on offense last year in the first round, so this year they should target defensive players. While their defensive tackles are improved with Jackson in the middle, they need to add another force in the middle. Detroit could go a number of directions here, with Offensive tackle and defensive end the next two likely choices.

2. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford QB*

Last year the Rams added their LT, now the Rams need to add someone for him to block for. Marc Bulger’s time in St. Louis is all but over, and the Rams will be quite lucky to replace him with Sam Bradford. Bradford is the best quarterback in the country despite being injured in week one against BYU. Bradford will rejuvenate the Rams offense, and could bring them back to the glory days of ten years ago.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Russell Okung OT

Safety Eric Berry is the best player on the board right now, but I have a feeling the Chiefs will play it safe here and go with the best OT on the board. Okung will get some competition for that spot, but right now he is the best OT in the nation. Okung is a powerful blocker that is equally talented in run and pass blocking. Kansas City could use some help up front and Okung should give Cassell the kind of protection that he needs.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry S *

The Seahawks would have wanted either Bradford or Okung, but with them off the board they will gladly take Berry the best player in this draft. Berry is a ball hawk in the mold of Ed Reed or Bob Sanders. He will fill a big need on defense, and be a cornerstone for Seattle to build around. With two first round picks the Seahawks can ignore their bigger needs on offense and draft the best available player here. Quarterback, running back and offensive tackle are all positions that need addressed as well.

5. Cleveland Browns: Jahvid Best RB*

This is a tough pick for the Browns, they have any number of needs but the three positions that there are plenty of top-10 talent available are, offensive tackle (Joe Thomas), defensive tackle (Shaun Rodgers), and quarterback (Quinn/Anderson) the Browns seem set at. Now Quinn has not looked impressive so far, but I think they will give him one more year after this to prove himself. Maybe they draft a quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round, but I don’t see them spending a top 5 pick on a QB. The Browns could go after S Taylor Mays here, but running back is the bigger need right now. Best isn’t a top 5 player in the country, and probably is a stretch to say he’s worthy of a top 10 pick, but the Browns running game is so awful they need to upgrade here. Even if that means a bit of an overdraft. Best will give them a playmaker and weapon on offense, but I don’t see him as an every down running back.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Ndamukong Suh DT

Bengals are another team that could go a number of directions here. They need a running back, but with Best off the board no one is good enough to even over draft at this point. They could use a safety but Mays is a SS and Roy Williams has been working out so far. They need another offensive tackle, but the Bengals aren’t the type of team to spend top-10 money on bookend tackles. I think they grab Suh here, which is an absolute great value. Suh is a force in the middle, which should give Odom even more freedom from his defensive end spot. Suh is a prototypical nosetackle that should occupy a number of blockers to free up the Bengals talented linebacking corps to make plays.

7. Oakland Raiders: Taylor Mays S

The Raiders would have drafted Mays last year at the 7th spot had he entered the draft, so they will be quite happy to take him here this time around. He hits like a linebacker and runs like a corner back, making him one of the best physical specimens in this draft. He doesn’t have great ball skills, leaving some to wonder if he’s more like Roy Williams rather than Sean Taylor. I think there is a big of a risk with Mays, i’m not sold that he is the next Polamalu just because he went to USC (that line of thinking didn’t work out to well for the Raiders when they drafted Bing a few years ago). I would not be shocked if his ultimate position is outside linebacker given his speed and strength. The Raiders will draft him as a safety and he should be an upgrade there, but be wary of considering him a savior.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tim Tebow QB

I’m not sold on Tim Tebow as a quarterback or as a 1st round pick. I think he does a lot of things well, and good things always seem to happen when the ball is in his hand, but its tough to project him as a top-10 pick. While I don’t want to deny the natural talent and leadership that he possesses, I also can’t deny that his success screams “system quarterback”. No one has ever seen what he can do under center in a pro style formation, and until you do see that drafting him early in the 1st round is a major risk. Given all of that I believe the hype I think the Jaguars will take the risk and sign the local hero to market him to their fans. It might not be the smartest pick on the field, but it probably will be at the box office.

9. Green Bay Packers: Trent Williams OT

Its very likely the Packers won’t have a top-10 pick, but regardless of where they pick offensive tackle should be their top priority. It’s simple if they can keep Aaron Rodgers upright they have a chance to win, when he spends most of the afternoon on his back or running for his life, they get upset by the Bengals. Green Bay desperately needs a help along the line so Williams will fill a major void in Wisconsin. If they can’t get good value at OT look for them to turn their attention on the defensive side of the ball.

10. San Fransisco 49ers: Jevan Snead QB*

The 49ers got screwed this year with the Michael Crabtree holdout. Hopefully for their sake they will be able to trade his rights before the draft and maybe get at least a 2nd round pick out of the fiasco. This year I think San Fransisco will target a signal caller to give Singletary a quarterback to build around. Shaun Hill has been nice but he’s taken the 49ers as far as his arm will allow. He is solid enough where he can stick around another year and let Snead learn from the sidelines. Snead is a quality prospect, and I wouldn’t knock him too much for his performance against South Carolina. I think he’ll bounce back and show that he is a Franchise talent.

11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Bulaga OT*

When your bookend tackles are Demetrius Bell and Jonathan Scott offensive line help is a must in the first round. The Bills might have needs on defense or at wide reciever, but they just can’t afford to pass up Bulaga at this point. Bulaga would be best suited to start out at RT and move over to the blindside after a couple of years, but I don’t think Buffalo can wait, and will stick him in their opening day line up at LT. Bulaga is a mauler though and should be able to handle the tougher position with ease.

12. Seattle Seahawks (from the Broncos): C. J. Spiller RB

Quarterback is a STONG possibility here Hasselbeck is near the end of his career and Wallace isn’t the heir apparent, but I think Seattle goes in a different direction here. The NFC West is a poachable division and if the Seahawks add another playmaker they could make a pretty good run if Hasselbeck stays healthy. Julius Jones has been solid so far this year, but he needs another back to compliment him and that back’s name isn’t Edgerrin James. Spiller would be a nice upgrade at running back, and give Seattle a ground attack that can keep the chains moving.

13. Washington Redskins: Colt McCoy QB

Their is little doubt in my mind that Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell are out in Washington after this year. Offensive tackle is a priority as well, but I think they will look for their franchise signal caller in the first round. Jimmy Clausen is an option here as well, but I’d like to see if he can keep up his early success as the competition gets tougher, and with his top receiver out for the year. McCoy worries me given his lack of arm strength, but I think he is a leader and a winner overall, and is worth the risk. He reminds me of Mark Brunell (Jaguars years, not his time with the Skins) as a quarterback with a weaker arm, but his leadership and athleticism wins through in the end.

14. New Orleans Saints: Sean Weatherspoon LB

The Saints have one of the best offenses in the league, now they need to build a defense that is comparable. There are more talented defensive linemen available, but the Saints biggest need is at linebacker. Weatherspoon is always around the football, and unlike many college linebackers he his a complete player, that has the ability to drop back into coverage. New Orleans will likely address their defensive line and secondary in the next two rounds.

15. Houston Texans: Carlos Dunlap DE*

Dunlap has the physical talent to be the best defensive player in the country, he just hasn’t shown it so far on the football field. He is a Mario Williams clone at defensive end, and bookending him with Williams should jump start a pass rush that has disappeared this season. The Antonio Smith signing has been a bust so far, even if he starts producing I don’t see the Texans letting Dunlap fall any further in the draft. Even though it would be yet another 1st round pick used on the defensive line, the Texans need to start putting more pressure on the quarterback, and Dunlap fits the bill perfectly.

16. San Diego Chargers: Terrence Cody DT

Cody is a monster in the middle and a pure nose tackle prospect. He needs to be blocked by at least two players and clogs up the interior with the best of them. He is a perfect fit for San Diego, as good as the Chargers defense is they don’t really have a quality NT. Drafting Cody will allow their linebackers to get more freedom to get after the quarterback.