Yes the Baltimore Orioles missed out on their top free agent targets, and instead traded for 3B Mark Reynolds (as well as SS J.J. Hardy), but that doesn’t mean they can’t swoop in and grab one of the best free agents. The Adrian Beltre market has dried up this offseason due to a combination of factors. Now Beltre comes with some risk, as his last major foray into free agency didn’t go so well for the Seattle Mariners, but he is a risk worth taking for the Baltimore Orioles.

Despite the perception that he was a major bust in his time in Seattle, Beltre more or less lived up to the value of his contract. Unfortunately most of his value came from his glove, which isn’t nearly as sexy as a .900+ OPS hitter. Part of the issue in Seattle was their field, which does no favors for RH power hitters. Beltre always hit better on the road during his time with the Mariners, and had years where his OPS was 100 points higher away from home. Last year moving to Boston Beltre saw his numbers rise, though he still had a strong road number despite the smaller Fenway Park. For a team like the Orioles with a hitter friendly home field, Beltre should be able to maintain his numbers from last season.

Beltre should appeal to the Orioles for another bigger reason though and that is his defense. Beltre is one of the best defensive third basemen in the game and has been consistently for the last 10 years (one or two down years, but overall exceptional). The Orioles defense last year was a major issue, and third base was a trouble spot with Miguel Tejada. While Mark Reynolds offers a slight upgrade and should provide average to slightly above average defense, Beltre can make it a strength of Baltimore.

Now I understand there is a concern about moving Mark Reynolds and I understand that, since I like him as a ball player and the last thing you want is to upset the clubhouse. But if Reynolds were to be okay with a move it should strengthen two defensive positions. The Orioles had one of the worst defensive first basemen units last season, so anything is an upgrade, but a player like Reynolds should be above average to even well above average there. He came up as a 2B/3B so he has some limited agility, meaning he should have pretty good range for a first baseman. He has limited time there and the results haven’t been pretty, but given an entire offseason and Spring Training to work at it, I think he could be a good option for the Orioles.

Yes the Orioles could pursue a more traditional first baseman like Adam LaRoche or Derek Lee, but neither will ever be the impact bat Baltimore needs. They could pursue a trade for a Billy Butler or a young prospect like Yonder Alonso, but those options come with risks as well (not to mention teams that might be looking for something the Orioles aren’t offering). Despite his inconsistencies Beltre is a very good player, and if his bat is at its peak he is a superstar. He will be 32 as the season rolls around so he figures to be able to play out a 5 year deal at a high level.

There is a significant risk involved with investing $14-16 million a year into a player, but you have to take some chances sometimes. And given how well rounded Beltre is it should be worth it. The Orioles might seem like they have an uphill climb, but if their young pitching staff comes together and some of their 2nd and 3rd year players begin to play up to their potential they really could be competitive in the A.L. East. So a player like Beltre really could put them over the top. I believe this is a case where the benefit outweighs the risks. Even if they aren’t competitive right off the bat, it proves to players, agents and fans that the Orioles are serious about winning and that is the best thing for this franchise.

While I’d been hearing some rumors suggesting that today’s report to be true, I was still a bit surprised when I read all 5 suspended (for the beginning of next year) Ohio State players will return next season and face their punishment. Now none of these players were thought to be locks to go in the draft before the suspensions, but I did think that the possibility of missing one third of the season would convince a couple of them to turn pro. Four of the five players probably would have been taken in the top 5 rounds and should have gone a lot higher than that. While it is possible that these players go back on their word to their coach I don’t see the max exodus of players from the Buckeyes that seemed likely a week ago. Remember these players draft stocks really weren’t going to be hurt for what they did. It isn’t as if they did anything that broke the law or violated anything resembling the NFL’s personal player conduct policies. If these four players work at it they can rebound from the suspension and build their draft stock up, but it will take a significant amount of work. Here is what I think they need to do to improve their stock the most:

Terrell Pryor: Pryor would have been drafted in the top 100 on potential alone. While right now he doesn’t profile as a top notch quarterback, he has the tools and athleticism to be something special. If Pryor can go back and really dedicate himself to being an NFL quarterback, who can make all the reads he could build his stock up to the late 1st round level. Pryor needs to work on his accuracy and decision making, and not just rely on beating up on weaker competition. It won’t be an easy task, especially with a 4-5 game suspension, but if Pryor dedicates himself he can improve his stock.

Dan Herron: It will be nearly impossible for Herron to post another 1,000 yard season next year with missing so much time, but he will need to make the most of his opportunities if he wants to be a mid-round pick. Herron will need to maintain or improve upon his 5.6 ypc average as well as showing more power and the ability to make defenders miss. Herron could also work on his blocking and pass catching to further give him a role in a backfield.

DeVier Posey: Posey is a quality wide receiver with good size and speed combination. He will need to show better hands going forward, and catch more balls in traffic. Overall Posey just needs to prove his consistency as there were entire games where he would disappear last year. I think with a good year Posey will end up being a mid-2nd round pick at worst.

Mike Adams: Prior to this past year Adams had failed to live up to his billing as a first class offensive tackle, but after this year he now has the production to go along with the promise. Adams might have found his way into the 3rd round this year despite his sketchy track record, based on potential alone, but with another good season he could hear his name called in the first round. Now Adams won’t have as many games to showcase his talents and won’t have a couple cupcake games to dominate, meaning every game is important for him. The good news for Adams is it appears most of the top DE talents in the Big Ten are leaving for the NFL so he very well could have a dominate year next season.

Wide Receivers Declare For The NFL Draft: In the coming weeks a number of junior receivers are expected to enter the NFL Draft to perhaps make it the strongest receiver draft class in its history. Yesterday a pair of quality receivers put their name into the ring, and while neither are expected to be first round picks their presence helps give teams viable 2nd and 3rd round options as well. Torrey Smith of Maryland has been rumored to go for a little while, and was all but assured of leaving with the coaching change for the Terps. He isn’t a very big and tall receiver, but he has very good size to go along with his top speed. He should hear his name called in the early 2nd round. DeAndre Brown from Southern Mississippi is a bit more of a surprise, considering he is coming off a weak injury filled year. At 6’6″ 240 lbs, he profiles as the big receiver every team is looking for. Despite his poor numbers he should still hear his name called by the end of the 3rd round. Given the low profile of his school and marginal talent around him, he may have thought his draft stock wouldn’t improve too much with another season.

Maryland Could Be Zeroing In On Malzahn: With Maryland’s bowl game over their coaching search is expected to ramp up this week and a new coach could be in place by the new year. While multiple reports have them targeting Mike Leach, a couple reports have them in on Gus Malzahn who is currently Auburn’s offensive coordinator. While Leach would be a solid option, I really believe Malzahn would be the man who could turn this program into something special. He has two stints as an offensive coordinator in the SEC, which will give him plenty of credibility with recruits down south. Also, he brings an innovative offensive system that has worked in the SEC and could have a huge advantage in a weaker ACC Conference. If Maryland can land Malzahn, this program will be headed in the right direction for years to come.

Newton and Fairley Haven’t Thought About the NFL Draft: Now I realize it is for the best for them to not acknowledge their status for the NFL Draft just yet, but who do they really think they are kidding. Both players are expected to enter the draft and be early picks, so this is more of a non-story than anything else. I just wanted to make sure I nipped it in the bud before people started wondering what their draft status was. While Newton gets all the hype and prestige, it is actually Fairley who is the better player and likely higher draft pick. Fairley should hear his name called within the first five selections, and profiles to be one of the top penetrating defensive tackles in the game. For those fans who want your team to grab either Newton or Fairley, have no fear as they will both have their names called this April.

Eagles Lose To The Vikes at Home, Hurt Their Playoff Position: No one gave the Vikings a chance to even be competitive in this game, much less beat the Eagles, yet they were by far the better team last night. The Vikings played the game like they were the team with double-digits wins and looking to lock up a 1st round bye. The Eagles on the other hand looked like the team that had been disappointing all season and wasn’t living up to expectations. Philly after their performance last night is now locked in to the number 3 spot in the playoff picture, which means they will only get one home playoff game (barring something unexpected happening). The Eagles only have themselves to blame as they never adjusted to the the Vikings defense and had no answer for Minnesota’s offense led by rookie quarterback Joe Webb. While the Eagles offense still at times looked like a unit capable of going to the Super Bowl, their defense looked pretty bad yesterday. If they don’t find a way to slow down opposing offenses, they won’t last long in the playoffs.

Pro Bowl Rosters Set: The Pro Bowl rosters were announced yesterday with few surprises. The Conference leading Falcons and Patriots had the most players on each roster, with 7 and 6 players respectively. Four teams were left out off the Pro Bowl rosters all together, the Bills, Bengals, Seahawks and Bucs all were without a representative. The Buccaneers are the most surprising considering how good of a season they had. Four rookies made the two combined rosters including three 1st round picks, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Devin McCourty, and C Maurkice Pouncey. In all 21 players will be making their first Pro Bowl trip this season.

Blue Jays Add Dotel To Their Bullpen: The Blue Jays needed to add some arms to their bullpen with the losses of Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg (still a free agent but likely to sign somewhere else soon). Dotel will get a guaranteed $3.5 million for next season and the buyout for 2012. With the option the Blue Jays also control Dotel for 2012 if they so choose for an extra $3 million. I really like this deal for the the Jays, especially since they have that option year if Dotel has a good season this year. Considering what relievers are getting this season on the open market (usually $4+ million a year for multiple years guaranteed) Dotel is a good value. He is also the type of reliever who could get traded at the deadline if the Blue Jays are out of the playoff hunt. While he isn’t what anyone would call a ‘frontline’ closer he can give quality innings at a back of a bullpen and will hold most leads. Very smart and good signing for the Blue Jays that will continue to help them as they look to overtake the Rays and the Yankees in the A.L. East.

By Guest Blogger John Manuel:

The Winter Classic is now just days away and finally the Caps are showing some life.  Winning three out of four with only the shootout loss against the rival Pens.  Saturdays upcoming game will be interesting if the weather does produce rain.  I don’t have a hockey playing background so I am not sure how this will effect the game.  Feel free to comment.  This game is huge but we all know what it will come down to is the playoffs.  Winning the Southeast Division is nice but it seems to not matter.  Visiting teams can win in the playoffs.  Its all about getting in and playing your best for those couple months.

I still think the Caps will make a major move before the trade deadline.  They have some cap room and General Manager George McPhee and Coach Bruce Boudreau could be under fire if the Caps do not produce in the playoffs.  Players like Martin Brodeur or Jerome Iginla could be available.  Most of all they will need their big guns to produce come this Spring.  Mike Green hasn’t shown up in the past two playoffs and Alex Semin had a tough past playoff run. Green is key and changes the whole team but him and his sweet scooter will be under a lot of pressure.  You have to wonder if this why he was left off Team Canada for not being a big game player.

The Caps have a few months to see if Mattheiu Perrault and Marcus Johansson are going to be immediate impact players for the playoffs.  Perrault is fun to watch and looks to be getting more confident although the Tim Gleason hit may set him back a short time.  But what we have seen from the 24/7 show is that hockey players are crazy tough and have the scars to show.  Thank you HBO for the facial closeups on the interview.  The show is great and I won’t even make comments on cursing.  It was great to see a vet like Mike Knuble step up.  This what makes the show great.  Could you imagine if they had done 24/7 or Hard Knocks on the Skins this season?

On the Wizards front, the Rashard Lewis is off and running to more road losses.   Lewis has made it to the starting lineup but more talk is about his contract.  There is doubt that someone will take on his current deal so we are probably stuck with hoping he can bridge the gap until the Wizards are real players.  The trade was simple, get rid of Gilbert no matter what they could get.  Good to see Nick Young get major minutes.  I think he can still be a viable option at shooting guard for the future.  And watch out for JaVale and Andray at the bars now.  It seems like these two find themselves into Flip Saunders doghouse way too much.  Could see them both gone at some point.  McGee has a lot of potential to be something but we said the same about Brendan Haywood and he was a marginal NBA center we kept waiting to take the next step.  He kinda did and then we traded him.

The recent loss to the Heat was brutal.  Had the game in hand until the final minutes and blew it.  Its going to be a tough season but just hang on until they open the lottery cards in Seacacus.  Winning again is not out of the realm of possibilities.  Adding a Perry Jones, Harrison Barnes and hopefully Jared Sullinger to run with Wall is a start.  I have watched more Wizards basketball this season than I would have expected even with Wall missing games with injuries.  They have come to play against good teams many nights and have energy.  Then again I haven’t been racing down 95 to get to the Verizon Center either.

I wanted to add that it was great to see the Yankees miss out on Cliff Lee.  Finally someone turned down their money.  My favorite part was when Sportscenter played some Yankee radio callers after the news broke crying about Lee’s decision to return to Philly.  Still think the Yankees will make something happen before the season since the Red Sox made major additions.  I hope both teams blow next season but that probably won’t happen.

And finally thanks to the San Diego Chargers loss to two win Cincy, my 40-1 bet on them winning the Super Bowl is done.  Didn’t count on it but thought they would at least make the playoffs.  The Chiefs deserve to go and San Diego has to endure another season of Norv Turner.

New Orleans Proves The Falcons Can Lose At Home: The Falcons had been perfect in the Georgia Dome this season and 19-3 over the past three seasons. In fact it was only the 2nd loss ever for Matt Ryan at home. None of those records matted when the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees came into town. Brees didn’t have his best game and even threw a pick six early in the 4th quarter to give the Falcons the lead, but he came through when it counted. Brees led the Saints on a 90 yard scoring drive, capped by a 6 yard touchdown pass with 3:30 remaining. While it was a great defensive game on both sides, it was the Saints defense that really won this game. The Falcons came up with some big plays against Brees and Co. but they still allowed the Saints to move the ball more effectively. The Saints defense on the other hand only allowed 7 points and and really held the Falcons offensive stars in check all game. While the Falcons still hold the top spot in the NFC, it showed that they are a bit more vulnerable.

Pitt Knocks Off UConn: In an early Big East battle the Pitt Panthers knocked off the UConn Huskies in a statement win for Pitt. The Panthers should move up in the rankings with this win, and they proved once again how tough they are to beat at home. The Huskies Kemba Walker was the high scorer for the night with 31 points, but his output could only keep UConn within 15 points as the Panthers won 78-63. The Panthers never trailed in this game and played shutdown defense, holding the Huskies to 32% shooting. The Panthers were paced by Aston Gibbs with 21 points, but had 3 other players in double figures. Although it is a long Big East season, it was key to get a big win like that early. The Panthers are a good balance of veteran and young players, and really should challenge for the Big East title this season (and possibly more).

Chargers Announce That Norv Turner’s Job Is Safe: After an embarrassing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, that eliminated the Chargers from the playoff hunt a lot of speculation arose that Turner might be on the hot seat. Chargers president and owner Alex Spanos dispelled any notion of that by saying that both Turner and G.M. A.J. Smith would return next season. It was a very candid approach and the right move by the Chargers to dispel any rumors before they maybe hurt the Chargers locker room. Considering how good the Chargers have been of late I don’t think you can fire Turner after one average (albeit disappointing) season. Considering the massive injuries this team faced, in addition to an offseason filled with a number of holdouts (including two that lasted well into the regular season) I think Turner did a fairly good job. In fact if anyone deserves to go it probably should be A.J. Smith, who’s tough negotiating policies led to the holdouts and trade rumors swirling around this team. Smith also had one of his weaker draft classes this past season, that really set the Chargers back. Overall though it is a good move bringing both Turner and Smith back and giving them a shot to redeem themselves, in what is still a fairly weak AFC West.

49ers Hand Singletary A Pink Slip: Now I understand the 49ers have been a huge disappointment this season and Singletary was going to be fired in a week anyways, but why fire him now? What does firing him one week early do for this team? This isn’t even a situation like Dallas or Minnesota where the interim coach might have a chance of becoming the next head coach, to allow him to get his feet wet. The 49ers are expected to pursue a number of big coaching names this offseason. I do understand that Singletary has had some issues with this team and he got into a verbal disagreement with Troy Smith on the sideline, but did he really cause enough embarrassment to be fired a week early?

Rodgers Returns Healthy, In a Rout Over The Giants: Two weeks ago Aaron Rodgers left the game after sustaining a concussion, which caused him to miss last week’s game and a good bit of practice. Obviously the concussion or time off didn’t negatively affect Rodgers as he went out and had perhaps the best game of his career. The Giants secondary didn’t have an answer for Rodgers as he torched them for 400+ yards and 4 touchdowns. The win moved the Packers into a Wild Card spot, and left the Giants on the outside looking in. After the heartbreaking loss in New England last week, this was the type of game the Packers needed to get back into postseason form after back-to-back losses without Rodgers.

Panthers Have Their Best Week Of The Season, Lock Up The Top Pick: With their loss on Thursday night, and the Broncos and the Bengals winning yesterday the Panthers are guaranteed the number 1 pick in next April’s draft. Unfortunately it also means the Patriots are guaranteed the 33rd selection since they own the Panthers 2nd round pick. Carolina could have a tough decision next year if Andrew Luck declares for the draft since they just drafted Jimmy Clausen this past season to be the quarterback of their future. While Luck very well could be an elite Franchise quarterback, they would be passing on more glaring needs in a year where they don’t even have a 2nd round pick. The could try to move Clausen for a pick or two, or even trade back from the number 1 slot (which they should do if they really believe in Clausen) and stockpile premium picks. The one thing I don’t see them doing is taking another player (Bowers, Green, Dareus etc.) over Luck with that top pick. Now if Andrew Luck doesn’t declare for the draft it will completely change the dynamic of Carolina’s thinking, and hurt their ability to trade out of that pick. One thing is certain Andrew Luck now knows who holds his future in his hands, and if he has ‘Carolina on his mind’.

Stop Rashard Jennings: The Jags may be without Maurice Jones-Drew, but Jennings still gives them a talented rushing attack. If the Jags are able to move the ball on the ground it will make things a lot easier for Jaguars quarterback David Garrard. Not to mention it will eat up the clock and keep the Skins defense on the field. If Washington hopes to win they have to keep Jennnings in check and hold him under 100 yards.

Get after Garrard: I realize it won’t be an easy task with Brian Orakpo out, but the Redskins need to generate pressure if they hope to stop the Jaguars today. The majority of good pass defenses rely on pressure rather than talent in the defensive backfield, and that is where the Redskins are lacking (though a good free safety wouldn’t hurt). Last week the Redskins did some good things with their blitz packages, by bringing corners and safeties, but they will need to be even more creative this week without Orakpo. While the Jags offensive line isn’t great, they are good enough to stop 3 and 4 man rushes (esp. considering the Skins talent level), meaning Washington will need to disguise blitzes and overload the blockers if they want to get to Garrard.

Keep Grossman Upright: All-in-all Grossman did alright under pressure against the Cowboys. He did throw the one pick, but the fumble wasn’t his fault considering his offensive lineman blocked him into the defender. The Jags don’t have near the pass rush of the Cowboys, but the Redskins offensive line has a habit of making average defensive lines look like All-Pro’s. Washington needs to handle the pass rush and give Grossman the time to execute the offense.

Get Fred Davis involved: I would love to see Fred Davis have a big game this week for a couple of reasons. One he is one of this team’s best pass catchers. Two, Fred Davis will be one of your best trade chips this offseason, so it would be a good idea to showcase him to prospective teams. Davis does create plenty of matchup problems, so hopefully the Redskins have schemed to use him appropriately today.

Look Towards the Future: I know accusations of ‘tanking’ will be made, but those are just fans and analysts who don’t understand what’s best for the team. There is no reason these last couple of weeks that the Redskins don’t take a long hard look at some of their backups. The Redskins aren’t some team with a Pro Bowl player at every position. This is a 5-9 team, who has looked bad all season. Also this is a team that will (or at least should) experience a lot of turnover this offseason. I would say over half the players on the active roster won’t be in D.C. next year so there is nothing wrong at taking a look at some of your young guys. We already know Roydell Williams can’t play wide receiver in the NFL, why not give Terrence Austin some chances to show what he can do? Guys like Austin, Brandon Banks, Perry Riley, Jeremy Jarmon, Macho Harris, Rob Jackson, Kevin Barnes, need to see a lot of the field today (the good news is some are starting), so the Redskins can evaluate them for next year. One guy I’d really like to see is Darryl Young. I’m not a big believer in Mike Sellers having a future here, and would love a chance to see if Young could be counted on for the job or if the Redskins need to address that position this offseason.

Analysis: While the Redskins match up well against the Jags since Jacksonville doesn’t have a great pass rush and can’t defend the run, I still see Jacksonville winning this game. Although they are on the outside looking in, the Jags playoff hopes are still alive and they will be at home. While they may miss Jones-Drew the Redskins will be without a number of defensive starters including Orakpo and SS Reed Doughty. I think the Redskins might have some success early in the game and maybe grab a lead, but right now I don’t see this as a defense that can hold on for a victory.

Prediction: Jacksonville 27-20.