Normally when a 4-3 team plays a 1-5 team, you would think that even being on the road the 4-3 team would be the favorite, well it should come as no shock then that the Redskins are the underdogs, since they have been anything but normal this year.

Washington may be 4-3 right now and in the thick of the playoff race, but it hasn’t been pretty. They have barely squeaked by in all their wins, and in most cases they have been outplayed in the game. Washington has come up with key plays at crucial times to find away to win, but they have hardly looked impressive. In fact for the season, the Redskins have given up more points then they have produced (-3 point margin). Washington is also notorious for playing down to their opponent, and allowing weaker teams stay in ball games.

The Lions on the other hand are a weaker opponent as their 1-5 record suggests, but they are by no means a pushover. They have been competitive in just about every game this season, and in fact they have a positive point differential at plus 6 for the season. Only the Lions and the Chargers are teams with a .500 record or below to have a positive point differential, so that is fairly impressive. Now a big part of the reason is their 44-6 win over the Rams, but remember this is a win over a Rams team that beat the Redskins by two touchdowns. The Lions are getting their young QB Matt Stafford back in the lineup today and are coming off a bye week, so they do have some things going for them.

Here are the Keys to the Game to Ensure a Redskins Victory:

Stop Ndamukong Suh: Detroit’s top draft pick this year has already created quite a name for himself by tallying 4.5 sacks already this season. He is an incredible force in the middle of the Detroit line. If Suh isn’t accounted for, then McNabb is going to face considerable pressure up the middle, and Torain won’t be able to run. The Redskins have had some issues in interior pass blocking since Kory Lichtensteiger has joined the starting lineup, and he will be tested today. I expect they will give him help with Casey Rabach shifting over, but even the two of them might not be able to contain Suh. I also imagine the Lions will try some stunts and internal blitzes to try to get Suh blocked one-on-one, so the Redskins backs better be prepared to help out. While double teaming Suh could leave one of the Lions’s other pass rushers free, it is a risk the Skins need to take. Detroit has some other solid defensive linemen, but no one near Suh’s caliber. Washington should hedge their bet, by activating Derrick Dockery this week (even if he doesn’t start). Overall he isn’t a good fit for the Skins blocking scheme, but he has the size and bulk to try to contain Suh.

Get The Tight End’s Involved Early and Often: The Lions have really improved with their corner back play this year (though it is far from perfect), but the Redskins can exploit their linebackers in coverage. Washington has two stellar tight ends, and they need to find away to get both involved to have a more consistent offense. Right now Fred Davis is just window dressing, and it is hurting the Skins offense. This should be a coming out party for Davis against these linebackers. If Washington gets the tight ends involved early, it may make the Lions use their safeties to cover them. This will keep them from blitzing McNabb or double teaming Moss. Either way it should help make McNabb’s life quite a bit easier.

Put Pressure on Matt Stafford: Stafford might have a ton of potential, but he hasn’t put it together just yet, so Washington should be very aggressive in attacking him today. Bring the heat, and hopefully he will make the bad decisions you usually see with young QB’s (and should also lead to a couple of sacks). The Lions don’t have a strong offensive line, so Washington should have an advantage, but they should also bring their share of blitzers to show a number of different looks. The Redskins need to get creative and not just blitz linebackers and safeties, but bring corners as well. If done right they could get a couple of key plays, that could give them the victory.

Play Albert Haynesworth More: Sure no defensive tackle can play every down, but they need to include Haynesworth at end on more of their base 3-4 packages, and not just on obvious passing downs. Haynesworth has generated more penetration than any other d-lineman all season, and he has been inactive for 3 games. While he needs to be saved for all passing downs, using him against the run will help slow down the rushing attack. And if they are double or triple teaming Haynesworth (as the Bears did at times) then one or two other defenders will be free to make the play.

Don’t Let Calvin Johnson Beat You: It might be easier said then done, but Calvin Johnson needs to be contained, even if that mean’s double coverage for the entire game. Johnson is one of the best receivers in the league and nearly impossible to stop one-on-one, so the Redskins shouldn’t even try. If they slow down Johnson, it will put a lot of pressure on Stafford and the rest of the receivers and tight ends. Although the Lions have  some decent options, Stafford has worked the longest with Johnson, so he might not be on the same page with the rest of his receiving options. If neutralizing Johnson doesn’t slow down the Lions passing attack, you can always change your game plan, but you have got to at least try to take him out of the game.

A Slicks Picks Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Matt Cerimele:

OK – now that i have built some ‘street cred’ on correctly predicting the UNDER with WVU/UCONN game, and even suggested OT could decide the game, i figured another post was warranted, especially if you arent sure which BIG games to pull the trigger on tomorrow.  Listen UP!

First, time to get off of the SPARTY bandwagon.  IOWA finally ends the madness and not even a triple sow cow will save Mich State this week.  IOWA is in charge from start to finish.  Defense way too strong and Mich State is ultimately exposed, like we all knew they evetually would be.  Take the hawkeyes, lay the 6.5 pts.  IOWA 30, MICH ST 13.

Ok, lets move on.  MIZZOU.  oh, MIZZOU.  nice win last week – home game, at night, #1 oklahoma coming in…and miserable loss this week.  the old black shirts do the same thing to MIZZOU that iowa does to michst.  NEBRASKA is simply better.  and believe me, vegas knows it.  lay the 7.5 points, and take the huskers at home in a battle of two very good big 12 teams (or big ten, whatever).  NEBRASKA 36, MIZZOU 27.

You want more PRIMETIME games – fine.  SLICK SAYS, bet USC.  colin cowherd said USC will win outright.  i love the herd.  i also love HOME teams, and i really LOVE home teams named USC, getting points.  USCs defense has had plenty of time to get ready for this one, and although they arent going to stop oregon, they will contain them, and USC can flat out score, just like oregon.  chip kelly said it, they have more 4 and 5 star players than anyone, and tomorrow, they will prove it.  Take USC in a high scoring affair, take the points (i htink youre getting at least 6.5 so take it before it comes down further).  USC 38, OREGON 35.

And, why not, ive gone against every other undefeated team, so lets get the tigers too.  AUBURN comes in with the highest expectations this week.  After a huge win last week in which Cam Newton simply took over the college football world, it just doesnt get any easier, and OLE MISS is waiting to put an end to his media frenzy.  wait, but auburn is lights out a better team and didnt ole miss lose to jacksonville state, at home, and vandy, at home!?  call me crazy, but im taking the HOME team again.  OLE MISS and 7 points is enough for me.  AUBURN wins, but not by enough.  AUBURN 31, OLE MISS 27.

Let me close with a few more interesting lines, that drew my attention.

AIR FORCE +7 V UTAH. did i mention i LOVE home teams, especially in big games.  i also LOVE flyovers.  air force is tested, and coming off of a defeating loss to TCU, air force will have an easier time finding the end zone.  take AIR FORCE, take the points.  AIR FORCE 30, UTAH 28.

MICHIGAN -3 @ PENNT ST. What?!  how is michigan favored against anyone?  Ok SIN CITY, ill take the maize and blue.  MICHIGAN 30, PENN STATE 24, take that.

TEMPLE -29.5 V AKRON. ok, i know akron is awful, but when were the owls favored by almost 30 points against anyone, in football?  is john chaney coaching this owl team?  i dont care who is coaching, ill lay em all, give me TEMPLE.  TEMPLE 44, AKRON 10.

and finally, i also enjoy totals.  i noticed two…

TAKE the OVER in NOTRE DAME V TULSA. 63 points!  wow , thats a lot.  not so fast my friend, both teams will score at will, and ND runs away late.  i see at least 80 points in this one.

TAKE the UNDER in BOSTON COLLEGE V CLEMSON. only 41!?  really, you mean 24-21 still isnt good enough.  yes, thats what i mean.  SLICK says, follow your gut, and although clemson will probably win this game by a score or two, my gut says 23-13 is about all youll see.

SLICK SAYS: Can we PLEASE put BOISE in the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME already!!??

In Part I I looked at a case that could be made for dealing Josh Willingham, as well as some potential suitors for the Nationals to deal with. In Part II I will look deeper into the risk/reward of trading Willingham, as well as some potential replacement options.

Risk/Reward:

Anytime you trade a player you deal with risk vs. reward, and all factors need to be taken into consideration. Player value, contract length, contract amount, durability, replacement availability, and opposing team need, are all taken into account by a team in determining whether or not to make a deal, and that player’s ultimate trade value.

In terms of Willingham his value is fairly high, as he finished 9th in WAR among left fielders, despite missing a 1/3 of the season.  His offensive WAR value was 7th, and had he played the entire year could have been as high as 4th among LF’s. Considering he has posted an wOBA of .363 or better in his 5 years as a starter (and has been over .370 each of the last two), Willingham’s offensive numbers aren’t a fluke. He won’t replace a Josh Hamilton or Matt Holliday in the lineup, but he is firmly in the 2nd tier of corner outfielders. With those types of numbers, Willingham would be highly attractive as a DH as well (his offensive WAR value would have been 4th, and easily could have been 1st with a full season).

As for the rest of the categories that go into the decision to trade him, most of them point towards moving Willingham. Willingham is under team control for only one more year before hitting free agency, meaning the Nationals need to decide now whether to extend or trade him. While his being under team control for only one more season would seem to hurt his trade value, it could actually help it as well since more teams will be interested. There are going to be a number of teams in need of corner outfield/DH help this offseason, and only two can end up with either Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford. Willingham will present a much cheaper option for teams that might not want to invest 5-7 years into one of those top free agents.

And since his contract value will be determined by Arbitration, there is a ceiling of how high it can be. Willingham will likely earn in the neighborhood of $7-9 million, so if the the Nationals were willing to take on some of that salary, he could be interesting to some budget conscious teams. In Part 1 I mentioned 7 possible suitors, but depending on how things shake out a handful of other teams could get interested, meaning the market for Willingham’s services will rise.

Given the number of suitors, lack of available free agent options (the market is pretty dry behind Werth and Crawford, Huff is a possibility, but he is more of a 1B), and few other big OF bats on the trade block, it should be a seller’s market for Willingham. Even if some non-Of big bats become available, like Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder they will be so expensive in terms of money/prospects that it would limit their suitor pool. Willingham will remain one of (if not the most) affordable bat available. Now the lone downside for trading Willingham is that the Nationals don’t have a great short term or long term replacement for him.  Which means they will either need to get an outfielder back, sign a weaker option, or make a separate trade for a young outfielder.

Now the Nationals aren’t going to get a major trade package, like what Texas received for Tex, or the Orioles got for Bedard, but it is still worth the risk for Washington. As Willingham is a very good player, but he isn’t irreplaceable, and he can bring back good value to help build a sustainable contender.

Internal Options:

Mike Morse: Morse replaced Willingham after the injury and fared much better than expected, but I don’t know if the Nationals can count on a repeat performance as well. In addition Morse is likely part of the plan to replace Dunn at 1B, and still help out in RF. Even if the Nats weren’t concerned about those other positions, Morse could have very well been a one year wonder. He deserves a solid role for this team, but it is hard to peg him as a middle of the order hitter going forward.

Minor League options:

Micheal Burgess: Burgess is on the RF depth chart for this organization, but a move to LF is likely in his future. Burgess has the arm for RF, but he isn’t the best athlete, so a move to LF would make sense. In addition with uber prospect Bryce Harper behind him, Burgess will need to switch corners if he hopes to play with the Nationals. Although Burgess could be ready within the next two years, he isn’t a real ‘sure-thing’. His power is legit, and he should put quite a few balls over the wall, but he hasn’t shown great plate discipline so far. If he doesn’t begin to improve in the upper minors, he might never become a regular starter, much less the impact bat the Nats are hoping for.

Destin Hood, J. R. Higley, J.P. Ramirez: These are the next three corner outfielders in the Nats system not named Harper, but none of them are ready to fill Willingham’s shoes. All of them have potential, but none are on the prospect level of Burgess (much less Harper). And all three are at least 3 years away. Maybe one will develop into a starter, to take over when a potential Willingham extension would be up, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Free Agent Options:

None: Let’s be honest here Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford aren’t really legitimate options for the Nationals. And while Aubrey Huff could replace Willingham’s offensive production, unless they find a better option at 1B, Washington would use him to replace Dunn. There are plenty of lesser free agent options, but no one the Nationals should consider as a viable replacement. If they move Willingham, they might sign a stopgap/backup plan, but it can’t be their primary LF next year.

Trade Options: Now I’m only focusing on young players here, since trading for a Luke Scott really wouldn’t fix this need longterm.

Alex Gordon: I mentioned Gordon as a potential replacement for Adam Dunn, but he profiles better as a left fielder (while at the same time, being able to backup RF, 3B, and 1B). Gordon would be a nice ‘buy low’ candidate, and I really could see him breaking out with a change of scenery. His price tag will likely be even less than when the Nats acquired Willingham (and Scott Olsen) a couple of years ago, and he has plenty of upside. He is a great trade option, given his potential, price tag and versatility. He is only under team control for another 3 years (all at arbitration prices), but that will help keep his trade value low. Also, he will still be very affordable, compared to free agent prices, or Willingham’s extension cost. The Royals, who seem to be in rebuilding mode won’t have interest in Willingham, meaning this would be a separate deal.

Allen Craig: Craig is another option I mentioned as a Dunn replacement, but could also fit in as a future LF as well. He isn’t as big of a name, and probably won’t become a superstar, but he does profile as a solid 5th or 6th hitter in a playoff caliber lineup. He is by no means a perfect solution, but does get high marks for his versatility and hitting ability. His plate discipline could be better, but he makes good contact and has 25 HR+ power. He is redundant in St. Louis and still has 6 years of team control. The Cardinals could be interested in Willingham as another bat to go along with Holliday and Pujols, or might prefer to strengthen their bullpen (as well as always a prospect for prospect option), making it likely a deal could be worked out. *Note I’m not saying it would be Craig for Willingham straight up, just that he could be part of the package.

Chris Heisey: Heisey is a LF/CF from the Reds organization, that could make sense for the Nationals as part of a package for Willingham (or a reliever). He is a fringe 5-tool player, as his power is still a work in progress, but he has great speed, hits well, and plays very good defense. He might be a better fit as a center fielder, if his power doesn’t come along, but he is an intriguing option going forward. He would significantly improve the Nationals OF defense if he is at a corner spot, something they might be willing to sacrifice power on if they feel Harper will be ready by 2012.

Fernando Martinez: Martinez was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but has since had his progress derailed by injuries. He is still just 22 years old so the upside is there, but he does come with plenty of risk. He would give the Nationals a very athletic LF, though at the cost of power. While the Mets have their own OF, problems I could see them looking to cash in on Martinez while they still can. Willingham, probably doesn’t interest the Mets considering the fact they can’t get out from under Bay or Beltran’s contracts, but New York could be interested in a reliever or even just prospects.

Now these are just some of the Major League ready options, there are plenty of additional young OF’s they could look to acquire with an eye towards 2012. Right now though, they should look to bring in one of these names (potentially 2 of them) to look to replace Willingham. Craig might be my first choice given his power potential, versatility, years of team control, and no major injury history, but I’d be okay with any of the options.

Overall I don’t know If the Nationals will be bold enough to make a deal with Willingham (and subsequently add a young OF, if he isn’t part of the deal), but they should. Signing him long term might appease a few fans bitter over the loss of Dunn, but it likely won’t make a major difference in their win loss record. Willingham is a good player, and a great clubhouse guy, but the Nationals need more if they hope to compete. Trading Willingham can bring them closer to that goal, as it will help restock their system (see: Matt Capps trade). And if Willingham doesn’t agree to an extension with his new club the Nationals can always pursue him as a few agent a year from now (plus they have the young players they received in return).

Giants Take A 2-0 Lead In The Series:  Wow… I thought this would be a close series, both in the box score and going down to a 6th or 7th game, but so far it has been anything but. The Giants have taken advantage of their home field, winning both of the first two games. Not only did the Giants win the games, but they are simply blowing out the Rangers. The Giants have a 20-7 run advantage in two games, and have had no issues against Cliff Lee, and the Rangers bullpen. The Giants did only manage 2 runs against C.J. Wilson last night, before he left with a blister, but that is two more runs than what the Rangers put up against Matt Cain. Cain pitched brilliantly last night, absolutely shutting down the Rangers mighty offense. Texas is supposed to have one of the best lineups in baseball, but they went quietly into the night yesterday. This series is far from over yet, but the Rangers need to turn it around if they want a chance. They should fair better at home, where they can have their DH back, but the Giants have the momentum now.

Wizards Hit A ‘Wall’: It was an ugly game on all counts (unless you are a Magic fan), as the Wizards and their rookie John Wall, got embarrassed in their 2010-2011 season debut. The Magic beat Washington by 29 points, and showed Washington that they are still a bit aways from playing with the big boys in the East. Now the Wizards are a young team so you expect growing pains, but OUCH did that hurt. Their young forwards and centers, did nothing as Al Thornton, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Yi Jianlian, Hilton Armstrong, and rookies Trevor Booker and Hamady Ndiaye combined for just 35 points (or one point less than what Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis combined for). With no inside help, it fell on Wall and the rest of the guards to keep the game close. While the Wizards got solid performances from Wall, Kirk Hinrich and backup Cartier Martin, they couldn’t match up with the Magic’s talent or defense.

It’s a long season so I wouldn’t write off Wall or the Wizards just yet, but I’m not sure if Washington has the inside game to go along with their perimeter play. Washington will need a couple of their big men to step up this season if they hope to win more than 25-30 games. Not only do they need to step up from an offensive stand point, but they need to play better defense as well. The Wizards were basically a non-factor in the paint last night, and that needs to change if they want to compete (not contend, but compete). Washington was without Gilbert Arenas last night, so that could be part of the blame, but at the same time Arenas has a history of injuries so you had to know you weren’t going to get 82 games out of him. Also, lets be honest if the Wizards have their way Arenas will be traded by the time this season is out. Arenas or no Arenas, this team needs to step up to give Wall support, as he can’t be shooting the ball as much as he did last night. Wall had 10 more shots than the next highest shooter, and that simply can’t happen if the Wizards want to win.

Rangers Fall As Lee Looks Human: Last night was supposed to be a pitching duel to start the World Series, but ended up turning into a slug fest, as they combined for 18 runs on 25 hits. Both Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum got roughed up a bit, giving up at least 4 runs, but Lee got the worst of it. He gave up 6 earned runs (7 total) in 4 2/3 innings. Lee came into last night’s game with an ERA under 1.00 for this postseason, but saw that balloon up fairly quickly. The Rangers had an early 2-0 lead, but were unable to capitalize, and were in an 8-2 hole after 5 innings. Texas, who was favored to win this series now will need to steal the next game in San Francisco, to tie it up as it heads back to Texas.

Heat Redeem Their Opening Night Loss: Miami evened their record to 1-1, but it wasn’t the dominate performance we’d expect from the ‘Eastern Conference All-Star’ team. Wade led the way with 30 points, but neither James or Bosh finished 2nd on the team in scoring on the night. Instead that honor went to James Jones, as he adding 20 points, with lights out shooting (6-9) from behind the arc. James and Bosh finished with a respectable 31 combined points, and did some other good things, but this team didn’t look built to contend for anything. It might be early, but they were also playing against the 76ers a team they have to be able to put away early. Instead Philly was in the game until the late 4th quarter, and nearly set the Big Three home without a win. Miami held on to win, but it wasn’t pretty. They need to find their rhythm fast, if they are to compete with the other big boys in the league.

LeBron Who?: James couldn’t overcome the Boston Celtics despite having Dewayne Wade, Chris Bosh and a host of other stars by his side on opening night. His former team had no issue knocking off the Celtics in game two despite having zero star power. Cleveland lost James, Big Z, Shaq and a host of other players this offseason, with their biggest acquisition being PG Ramon Sessions. On top of that, the lone remaining star player Antwan Jamison, scored just 4 points off the bench. Youngster J.J. Hickson led the way with 21, as the Cavs never gave up and knocked off Shaq and the Celtics, just one night after they beat James and his ‘Dream Team’. In the end I think the Celtics put everything into beating James and company that they took Cleveland too lightly. The Cavs had a lot of fire to prove their veterans wrong for leaving, but in reality just can’t compete with the top teams in the East. For one night though it didn’t matter, as Cleveland showed that their young players can play and they will still try to be a factor in the East.

Until reading the Washington Post this morning, I was probably going to let Donovan’s McNabb’s performance slide, as despite his best efforts the Redskins won. Now the Post article has given me some pause, and I wanted to address where I stand on the Redskins quarterback situation.

If you have followed my writing in the past, you know that I was against acquiring McNabb from the beginning. I believed that the cost was too high in terms of draft picks for a one-year fix at Quarterback for a 4-12 team. Even if they resign him, that has no value in what the Redskins gave up to acquire him. Also, it has been made pretty clear that McNabb wants Brady-Manning money, which I don’t think he comes close to deserving. While McNabb represented an upgrade, it was a short term fix, and would take a  good (not great, and certainly not elite (i.e. Franchise) quarterback. Not to mention to take him out of the one system he has run his entire career, and surround him with inferior weapons, and a weaker offensive line. This was not a recipe for success, despite the Redskins 4-3 record.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m ecstatic with a winning record, but I remember starting out 6-2 two years ago and collapsing in the 2nd half. I also know this that McNabb really can’t take a lot of credit for this 4-3 record. In two of those wins (Dallas and Chicago) it was the defense that won the game, and in the Chicago game McNabb almost gave the game away. As for the other wins, McNabb was a mixed bag. He started out sensational against the Eagles, but had an awful 2nd half that almost allowed Philly to come back and win. Against the Packers McNabb was horrible in the 1st half, but after a couple of key injuries he got it together in the late 2nd half/overtime. As for the losses, you can easily put the Rams game at his feet since he could never sustain a drive against the Rams defense, against the Colts McNabb put up a ton of yards, put couldn’t get it in the endzone. McNabb missed some wide open receivers deep, had a couple of costly INT’s, took some bad sacks, and worst of all had horrible clock management late in the game. McNabb played a lot better in the Houston loss, though a couple of those negatives showed up when the game counted. In fact the Redskins have seen McNabb take quite a few needless sacks (although he has escaped a few as well), overthrow deep receivers, and have trouble managing the clock in late game situations.

Now that all being said, I’d easily go with McNabb over Rex Grossman, who at this point is no better than a solid back up in this league. Grossman might know the system better, but McNabb is the more dynamic player. On top of that the team invested so much into McNabb that his upside outweighs his mistakes right now. But I will say this, if the Redskins had a young quarterback waiting in the wings (i.e. a Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen) I’d be more inclined to go with the future, instead of trying to make excuses for McNabb.

I also think the Redskins might be getting to the point where they consider letting McNabb walk after this year. That would be a tough pill to swallow considering what they gave up to get him, and since they don’t have any replacement already on their roster, but they can’t be considering giving him a raise at this point. I don’t care what the Redskins record is at the end of the year, all that matters is what McNabb’s numbers warrant (Remember Matt Cassel). As of Now McNabb’s numbers don’t warrant half of the $12 million+ he is making this year, and aren’t in the same galaxy for what he wants to be paid next year (he is probably looking between $15-17 million a year over 4-6 years).

Washington can’t make that financial commitment if they want to be competitive going forward (it’s not as though they have a lot of young cheap talent, since they keep giving up draft picks). A week ago I would have been content doing between $11-13 million a year up to 3 years, but now I’m beginning to think that is too high. Unless he drastically picks up his game I don’t know how the Redskins can think to offer more than $8-10 million a year.

One final note on accountability with the Redskins and the fans/media love for McNabb, is that they need to start treating him like an equal and not like he is somehow above the rest of the team. Everyone got on Clinton Portis in the past for having preferential treatment, but seems to have no problem with McNabb getting the royal treatment. I also don’t get how there really isn’t any news story about McNabb blowing off his offensive coordinator Kyle Shannahan, after he threw a horrible pick six, yet Albert Haynesworth was BLASTED for standing away from an apparent defensive meeting. The Haynesworth story turned out to be completely false (though it doesn’t seem like many Skins fans know that, as they still use it against him) as it was a meeting of linebackers and defensive backs, and as of yet the Redskins haven’t tried to play Haynesworth that far out of position. Yet it is clear as day, that McNabb didn’t want to be ‘coached’ after his bad decision (that nearly cost them the game), and there was barely any comments about it in the broadcast or in the news reports. Why is Haynesworth attacked for doing nothing, and McNabb is protected even when he is disrespectful? And take Haynesworth out of the picture, is there another player that could talk back to the coach and blow him off, and not have any repercussions? When McNabb starts playing like Manning or Brees he can get a pass, but until then he needs all the coaching he can get.

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer John Manuel

I am taking my NBA Season opening thoughts to South Beach, I mean fanspeak.  The NBA tips off this week with its most anticipated season in a long time.  All eyes will be the new Big Three of Martell Webster, Michael Beasley and Kosta Koufas in Minnesota.  Just kidding…Martell Webster starts the season injured.  How many games will the Miami Heat win?  I was in Vegas two weeks ago and the win over/under was 63.5.  I thought that was a pretty good number.  I passed and gambled all my money on that the Sasha Vujacic and Maria Sharapova engagement rumor was a joke.  I lost. We all lost on that one.

Speaking of the Lakers most analyst I have listened to the past week feel they are still the favorites to repeat.  I have never been a fan of the Lakers but I may find myself rooting for them now based on two moves.  One is obvious.  Lebron and Bosh joining the Heat to load up a team of superstars.  But I am sick of hearing about Lebron and the Heat.  More important was when the Lakers added my fellow Maryland grad Steve Blake.  It would be great to see Blake hit a huge shot in the finals against Miami.  Slim chance of that with Kobe and the returning Derek Fisher.

Opening night with TNTs coverage is always great.  Charles Barkley’s reactions to the bench players, trainers and other no names receiving championship rings is priceless.  I do feel sorry for Sir Charles and I am guessing lost 50k on that Vujacic bet also.  Barkley would probably cut off one of Adam Morrison’s ring fingers Jack Bauer style if he had the chance.

My team is the Wizards or the team that doesn’t know a good practical joke.  Or just Gilbert Arenas doesn’t.  I wonder if Gilbert wishes he would have used this practical joke on Javaris Crittenden instead of the locker room gun fiasco. RIP Manute Bol.  John Wall is going to make the team fun to watch this season at the least. Hopefully with a team full of 7′s like Josh Howard and Al Thornton they can possibly contend for the 8th spot in the East.

If I lived in Oklahoma City and couldn’t afford the cost of Oklahoma City Thunder season tickets I would probably be in the Oklahoma state pen right now for a failed bank robbery to pay for tickets.  Kevin Durant is sick and I applaud him for signing his extension and seeing where this talented bunch can go the next few seasons.  I would love to see him come back home to DC at some point but they could have something special.  Last seasons Lakers-Thunder series was great to watch.  A few seasons ago the Heat had a nucleus of Wade, Caron Butler and Lamar Odom that reminded me of the Thunder but they decided to break it up and trade for Shaq.  It got them a title, but I hope that the Thunder keeps guys like Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green together with Durant.

The whole season outlook can change if either Carmelo Anthony or Chris Paul change teams during the season.  Chris Paul in Orlando could make them the favorites.  Melo with the Knicks or Nets would probably move one of those teams at least into the playoffs.  Melo is probably my favorite player so I hope he doesn’t goto the Knicks.  Can’t his wife just host her Vh1 show reunions from Denver?  And why can’t a NBA player marry Katie from MTV Road Rules/Real World challenges, she is nuts but highly entertaining.  I may be willing to pay for the wedding of Katie and Kenyon “Necklips Tattoo” Martin.

The Lakers, Heat, Celtics and Magic are getting the most hype so far.  But look out for teams like the Thunder or my surprise selection the Utah Jazz.  Not to win but possibly finally upset the Lakers in the Western conference playoffs.  Portland has been waiting to take that step up and Dallas’ addition of Tyson Chandler will be big.  If I have to make a call I am going Lakers over Heat.  Sorry, I just have that feeling and you know how whacky the officiating gets in the playoffs.  Any Sacramento Kings fans of the C-Webb-Vlade era  just smashed their monitors so they won’t be able to hear me tell them Tyreke Evans is sick so hang in there.

I’m still waiting and wondering when Coach Shannahan and Haslett will make their public apologies not only to Albert Haynesworth, but to Redskins fans as well. All offseason we heard how Albert Haynesworth wasn’t a team player, and how he’d have to be a nose tackle and learn to play in the system, etc. We also heard how he was ‘behind’ and ‘not conditioned’, or when he came back to practice before the Colts game that he ‘didn’t know the game plan’. Well after 7 weeks it is pretty clear that all those statements aren’t true, and were just a power struggle by the team. Not only did they throw Haynesworth under the bus, but their limiting his playing time (or making him inactive all together) might have cost them a game already.

Now I know every Redskins fan hates Haynesworth, and considers him a ‘team cancer’, but let’s be honest here he hasn’t done one thing to hurt this team, with the possible exception of not keeping the dirty laundry between him and the team out of the public eye. By by the same token, the team hasn’t really defended Haynesworth as well. Haynesworth is by far the Redskins best defensive player, because his impact isn’t measured just in sacks and tackles, but what he brings to the table. He is just about impossible to block 1 on1, which was made abundantly clear when he literally threw the guard (a former 1st round pick mind you) into Jay Cutler early in the game on Sunday. That type of play is worth more than just any sack, because he set the tone for the entire defense that day, as well as got into both the guard and Cutler’s head. On some plays later in the game, the Bears would have 3 guys blocking Haynesworth. You can count the number of guys on one hand in the league that need 3 blockers to ensure they don’t interfere with a play. And on that goal line play where Haynesworth dove over the pile to ‘stop’ Cutler, there is maybe only 1 or 2 other defensive tackles in the league that might make that play. And I realize that in reality, had that play been reviewed it probably would have been a touchdown, but the fact of the matter is if not for Haynesworth’s play it wouldn’t have needed a review because Cutler would have been in the end zone and the Redskins would have lost. His effort on that play (as well as losing the challenge before) made Lovie Smith gunshy about challenging.

Now Hayneswoth haters may say that, it was just one game, and it was against a horrible offensive line etc. But I don’t hear them discrediting Orakpo’s 2 sacks against this Bears O-line, or thinking that he should not count his 4 sack game against Oakland last year since their line is awful. Really the fact of the matter is, that its not just one game, Haynesworth had a pretty big impact in the Eagles game as well, drawing penalties and making big plays. And while he didn’t get a single tackle or sack in the Rams game, he had a very good game. He was consistently double teamed (which helped lead to an Orakpo sack), and he got more penetration than the rest of the defensive linemen put together. It isn’t Haynesworth’s fault the defense didn’t make adjustments to press coverage, which allowed Sam Bradford to make his quick throws before he could be sacked. Also, on a number of crucial plays (in every game he’s been active) for some reason Haynesworth has been on the sideline. The fact that the coaching staff is using him as an example isn’t his fault. Now I know the counter argument is that Haynesworth didn’t take part in the voluntary OTA’s this offseason, but guess what the rest of the defensive line did and I don’t see them making 1/10th of the impact as Haynesworth. And no DT makes more plays down field than Haynesworth, so I’m not too sure about all the conditioning questions.

I don’t think Haynesworth is the greatest team player of all-time or that he is completely in the right. But what I do know for a fact is that he definitely isn’t completely in the wrong. He has never said that he is going to be the best team player in the league, yet somehow he is considered at fault. Haynesworth showed once again the impact he can have, when he is allowed to do what he does best…attack. Anything else and you are just wasting the talents of your best defensive player. And when Haynesworth get’s going, everyone benefits around him. Hopefully the team will stop playing these games with their star player and the Redskins can just focus on winning football games.

Yesterday’s Redskins-Bears game was probably the ugliest game I’d ever seen play, that couldn’t be attributed to the weather. Luckily the Redskins made ‘fewer’ mistakes, and hung on for a victory. The downside is that no one could look at the way the Redskins played (particularly on offense) and think this team can contend.

The Redskins offense yesterday was a joke, plain and simple. In the first half they got the ball on their own 39 to the 50 yard line 5 times. Yet as the second half began, Washington was trailing 14-10 (and their touchdown game on a drive started on their own 28). And in the 2nd half despite three more chances with the ball on the 39 or closer, Washington’s offense couldn’t put up any additional points. If not for DeAngelo Hall’s touchdown return (eerily similar to the Dallas game) the Redskins would have lost this game. The Bears have a good defense, but this wasn’t exactly the Steel Curtain the Redskins were going up against. And let’s not forget just how lucky Washington was yesterday.

On the stat sheet it shows the Bears having three turnovers, but in reality it could have been 8 (actually 9, as Banks recovered his own fumble on special teams as well). In addition to the two McNabb interceptions, and the one Torain fumble that were recovered by the Bears, the Redskins had trouble holding on to the ball. Torain fumbled on another drive, that was recovered by Anthony Armstrong, and McNabb fumbled twice that the Redskins were able to hang-on to. The last recovered fumble ended up costing the Redskins though, even though the Bears couldn’t get their hands on it. In the 4th quarter, after a D-Hall interception deep in Chicago territory, McNabb completed a pass to Cooley down to the 6 yard line, unfortunately Cooley couldn’t hang on to it, and to prevent a Chicago defender from picking it up, he knocked the ball out of bounce forward, which resulted in a 10 yard penalty. That combined with a McNabb sack (and fumble) two plays later backed the Redskins up to the 19, which led to a missed FG. Now Graham Gano needs to make 37 yarders, but the wind did seem to affect that ball, and had it been closer it would have been good. Any way you look at it, those fumbles (especially Cooley’s) kept points off the board for the Redskins. The final Redskins almost turnover would have been the difference in the game, as McNabb’s would be interception returned for a touchdown was called back. Not for an offsides call, or a roughing the passer penalty, in fact the defense didn’t do a single thing wrong. The interception was called back because the offense couldn’t snap the ball in time. And luckily that is something that the defense couldn’t decline.

It is a sad day that probably the offense’s 2nd best play of the game (after the Moss touchdown pass) was a delay of game penalty that kept 7 points off the board for the Bears, but that is what happened yesterday. McNabb was simply just awful yesterday, and while Torain gained big chunks of yards late, coughing up the ball twice (even if they recovered one) really is a knock on his 100 yard performance. Fred Davis, Chris Cooley and Anthony Armstrong all had dropped passes, that helped stall Redskins drives. And Joey Galloway’s best play was landing on Daniel Manning after an interception, to prevent a big return. The only offensive player who really had a good day was Santana Moss, outside of him though this looked like a high school football team.

Now the defense had one of their better games (especially in the turnover department), but they still gave up chunks of yards on the ground (though thankfully the Bears didn’t press the issue) and would have easily given up over 300 yards in the air, if Cutler wasn’t so inept (side note: Thank God the Bears topped the Redskins offer for Jay Cutler). The defense as a whole made some adjustments, and luckily Cutler kept trying to challenge Hall, but individually there were some holes yesterday for Washington.

Going forward the Redskins need to find a way to move the ball on offense consistently, as well as hold on to it better. McNabb has made some costly turnovers, trying to force the ball into coverage, or in the case of the Bears game trying to be the hero and make the throw while he is getting hit. They need to practice ball security, because next time they won’t be so lucky when the ball is on the ground. Washington may be 4-3 (and in first place if the Giants lose tonight) but it hasn’t been pretty.

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Willypops

Last week I took my first stab at picking the full slate of NFL games against the point spread here on Fanspeak.  Didn’t do too bad – went 9 and 5.  Some of the guys on TV didn’t do as well.  So, buoyed by that success, I decided to take a crack at picking six of the bigger match-ups in Week #7:

Steelers @ Dolphins (+3) – The Steelers (4-1) ignored the distraction and hype in getting Ben Roethlisberger’s return from suspension game under their belts by convincingly beating the Browns last week.  Offensively, the Steelers have a sound running game and now have their more than reliable passing game going.  With the defense continuing to play at an extremely high level, the Steelers are poised to establish themselves as the team to beat in the AFC.  But they have some tough games coming up over the next four weeks, including three straight road games against the  Dolphins, Saints and Bengals.  They follow that up with a home game against the Patriots.  We’ll know an awful lot about the Steelers after they navigate that field of “land mines”!  The Dolphins (3-2) are a hard team to figure out.  They started the season with two  road wins against the Bills and the Vikings but then followed those up with two home losses to the Jets and Patriots.  After their bye week, they went up to Lambeau Field last week and beat the Packers.  So no telling what to expect against the Steelers.  Chad Henne and the offense for the most part have been sound and the defense is solid.  But both sides of the ball rank in the bottom third of the league in points scored and points allowed.  I don’t think that bodes well for the Dolphins in this game so I’ll take the Steelers and give the points.

Redskins (+3) @ Bears – The Bears (4-2) are on top of the NFC North but they lost to the Seahawks last week at home.  Their offensive line continues to struggle in pass protection and the Redskins’ Brian Orakpo, who is fast becoming one of the premier pass rushers in the league, could come up huge in this game.  Two weeks ago against Carolina, Bears running back Matt Forte ran wild but overall their running game is not very strong.  Defensively, the Bears are in the top 10 league-wide in nearly all of the important statistical categories.  The Redskins (3-3) are coming off a tough loss at home against the Colts last Sunday night which came on the heels of an exciting home win in overtime against the Packers.  Offensively, the Redskins are starting to show some signs of life in the running game.  That’s encouraging since the play of quarterback Donovan McNabb thus far can best be characterized as being mediocre.  They will need for him to play much better if they are to have any real success this season.  The Redskins defense continues to be the worst team in the league in total yardage given up and they are in the bottom third in most defensive statistics.  Yet, they managed to hold the Eagles and Packers to 12 and 13 points respectively in getting wins on successive weeks.  This game could go right down to the wire.  Quite often in close games it’s the team with the strongest defense that comes away with the win.  So the nod here goes to the Bears getting a win at home and covering the spread.

Eagles (+3) @ Titans – The Eagles (4-2) have won four of their last five games and are coming off an impressive win at home last week against a very good Falcons team.  Quarterback Kevin Kolb had an outstanding game, going 23 for 29 and throwing for 326 yards with three touchdown passes.  A few more games like that and he will quiet the excitement over Michael Vick’s start to the season and will justify the move sending McNabb to the Redskins in favor of Kolb as the starter.  Overall defensively, the Eagles are sound but they have shown some weakness in stopping the run.  Curiously, three of the Titans (4-2) four wins have come on the road  They followed up their win at Dallas two weeks ago by completely dominating the Jaguars in Jacksonville last Monday night.  As usual, the Titans are playing solid defense this year, allowing the 4th fewest points in the league.  Offensively, quarterback Vince Young is off to a pretty good start, throwing for 7 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  But this team’s bread and butter is their running game with Chris Johnson.  As he goes, so go the Titans.  I look for Johnson to exploit the Eagles run defense and the Titans defense to hold Kolb and his talented corps of receivers (minus the injured DeSean Jackson) in check enough so that the Titans win by more than 3 points.

Patriots (+3) @ Chargers –  The Chargers (2-4) have two dominating wins against the Jaguars and Cardinals but are coming off two devastating losses at St. Louis last week and at Oakland the week before.  Because they play in the AFC West however, all hope is not lost.  But they better right this ship quickly because after this game they play the Titans at home and the Texans on the road.  If they continue to play the way they have been, they easily could be 2-7 after that stretch.  Overall, the Chargers are very solid statistically on both offense and defense.  Quarterback Phillip Rivers is having another good season but their rushing offense is in about in the middle of the pack.  It would seem that the Chargers lack of success so far may be more attributed to the off the field distractions associated with the contract disputes involving two of their big name players.  The Patriots (4-1) are coming off big wins in Miami and at home last week against a very good Ravens team.  Quarterback Tom Brady is having another good season thus far and the productive return of Deion Branch last week suggests that Randy Moss’ departure may not negatively impact the Patriots as much as many thought it would.  The Patriots defense has struggle a good bit this year but they have recently shown signs of improvement.  I think this one could be a shootout but I like Brady and the Patriots chances so I’ll take them and the points.

Vikings (+3) @ Packers –  The Vikings (2-3) have pretty much struggled this year, especially offensively.  Quarterback Brett Favre’s performance this year has done an about face compared to his performance last season.  He has already thrown as many interceptions (7) as he did all of last year.  Fortunately for the Vikings, running back Adrian Peterson is off to a great start and it appears that they are going to have to rely on him to pick up much of the slack on offense.  The addition of wide receiver Randy Moss should pay dividends as the season progresses.  Defensively, while the Vikings are not playing up to the level of last year’s performance they are still very sound.  The Packers (3-3) have just been decimated by injuries, most of which have been to key players.  They have had tough losses the past two weeks – the first at Washington in overtime and then at home last week to the Dolphins in overtime.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having a good season but it is basically his show since the Packer rushing offense leaves a lot to be desired.   Defensively, the Packers are solid but far from spectacular.  When your team is banged up, it is usually your defense that is going to make the difference between wins and losses.  Linebacker Clay Matthews is the engine that powers the Packers defense but he has been hampered this year by a sore hamstring.  Assuming that he can play at somewhere near full throttle, then I think he will wreak havoc on Favre and the Vikings passing game.  As a result, I’ll take the Packers at Lambeau on Sunday night and give the points.

Giants (+3) @ Cowboys –   A classic NFC East showdown on Monday Night.  The Cowboys (1-4) are coming off two tough losses, one at home against the Titans and then last week at Minnesota.  Defensively, the Cowboys have been playing very well.  And offensively, their passing statistics are near the top in most categories.  Most everybody is impressed with the Cowboys running back contingent but for some reason, Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett seems to favor the passing game and he has been criticized for not striking the proper balance between the run and the pass.  On paper, the Cowboys look like a team that should be 4-1 instead of 1-4, but they just seem to find ways to shoot themselves in the foot with costly and stupid penalties.  The Giants (4-2) are coming off three straight impressive wins against the Bears, Texans and Lions.  But in the two games prior to that run, they looked horrendous in losses to the Colts and Titans.  The Giants defense has been playing very well of late and they seem to be able to dictate the tempo of the game.  The offense has been effective overall and the running tandem of  Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs has been particular productive, accounting for a combined total of nearly 800 yards rushing.  In this game, clearly the Cowboys backs are up against the wall.  If for no other reason than that, I see the Cowboys offense finding a way to overcome the Giants defense and coming away with a victory at home and covering the spread in doing so.