When it comes to making deals in the NFL, football has plenty of offseason activity, but during the season trades are fairly non-existent. Part of this has to do with learning the playbook, and timing with players, as there is probably a steeper learning curve than in any other sport at any other position. The other factor is that the trade deadline is early in the NFL, after week 6. At a time where most teams don’t yet know if they are out of the playoff hunt or not yet.

This year though things could be different. While the deadline is still early, more teams this year will likely already know their fate. Also, with no salary cap this season teams acquiring players won’t need to worry about fitting them under (maybe long term, but not for anyone who’s contract is up). Also with a new CBA looming, there could be changes in the restricted free agent or Franchise player compensation, which would make teams who are out of it more likely to dump a player now than wait until the offseason and maybe lose him for nothing. Also, with likely a new salary cap system in place and a strong free agent class (remember guys coming off their rookie deals last year ended up being restricted free agents under the no salary cap provision, that will likely revert back to the old number of years, essentially meaning this will be like two free agent classes rolled into one), teams might want to clear money off their books. While some might say that the uncertainty of the CBA could limit trading, contenders will always try to improve, even if next year they have to move money around or cut a player. While there are a number of teams that should look to treat this trade deadline (and even sooner) like MLB’s, I think the Panthers need to be very active in the next month.

The biggest name the Panthers should look to move, won’t be going anywhere despite it being probably the best for the organization. If I was running the Panthers, I’d look to deal Steve Smith to one of the receiver hungry teams on the open market. Smith would be very marketable to other teams, as his contract is pricey but fair. He is owed roughly $15 million between in 2011 and 2012, and only another $3.5 million for the rest of this year (depends on when he is traded). That is pretty affordable and doesn’t hinder teams long term. Smith has shown no real signs of decline (outside from the fact the Panthers’ QB play is pretty awful), and would be effective for any team for the length of the deal. He could probably net the Panthers at least a pair of 2nd round picks and an additional player. Which is a good return considering the Panthers likely won’t be contending in the next couple of years while Smith is under contract, and they could use that money on additional free agents this offseason.

While I think trading Smith is worth the risk, I realize it will probably never happen. The Panthers are now going with rookie Jimmy Clausen under center and they will want to give him his best weapon. It makes sense, but honestly it’s probably too early to go to Clausen so mitigating one bad decision with another is not going to help this team become any more successful.

One star player who could get traded would be starting running back DeAngelo Williams. Williams is one of the best running backs in the league, but he is an impending free agent. Even if their is no change to the Franchise tag compensation, do the Panthers want to go down that route? Plenty of players holdout, and it can hinder negotiations, and it will be a large financial hold against their cap (this year’s number for running backs was $8.15, and will only go up next year). I don’t think having over $8 million committed to one running back, when you still have Jonathan Stewart on the roster (who will make less than a fourth of that) makes much sense. I don’t see why Williams would sign a team friendly deal, and otherwise he is just too pricey for their roster needs. In addition to Stewart the Panthers have Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton on the roster, both capable of being the speedy back compliment to Stewart (and both would be at worst number 2 backs on the majority of teams in this league). What is the point to try to keep Williams, just to go through the Franchise tag hassle this offseason (not to mention when there is a chance that it all changes). Since the price will be high (at least a 1st and a 3rd, probably a little more) there won’t be many teams in the market, but I’d expect the Packers and Patriots (who already own the Panthers 2nd round pick, and have an additional 1st rounder) to come calling. And their are a handful of other teams that might be interested. Some fans might miss Williams, but the Panthers have the depth to do without him, and could jump-start their rebuilding process with the move.

While no other player is as big of a name as Williams or Smith, the Panthers have a few other guys who should attract interest. Cornerback Richard Marshall is an impending free agent and capable of starting on most teams in the league. While his loss will sting nickel back Captain Munnerlyn is ready to take over. It will hurt the Panthers overall depth, but they should be able to get at least a 2nd rounder for him (or the equivalent). While Marshall is pretty good, the Panthers might not want to make the big financial commitment to keep him when Munnerlyn is ready to start. Defensive end Charles Johnson has worked his way to become a pretty good starter with the Panthers, but is in the last year of his rookie deal, while he might end up being a rookie free agent depending on how the new CBA shakes out, there are no guarantees. This trade would be a bit more risky given more of the unknown, but could still makes sense for the Panthers. While Johnson is a good starter, the Panthers have excellent depth along the defensive line, particularly at end. They have drafted well at the position the past few years, and could cash Johnson in for a couple solid picks, and use the money you’d need to resign him to address another weaker position. Another reason that might make sense in moving Johnson (as well as all these players, but especially Johnson) is the likelihood of a coaching change after this season.  John Fox is on the way out and a new coach will be heading up the Panthers next year. Whether it is the head coach that brings in the new system (Bill Cowher) or a defensive coordinator, it could be possible the Panthers will look to switch to a 3-4 (in a lot of areas they have the personnel). Johnson does not fit in that system and would not be good as a linebacker. Trading him now assures you get value for him, and you aren’t desperate to trade him (or let him walk in free agency) later.

It is likely a long year for the Panthers football team this year, and none of these deals will salvage this season, but they can make this team more competitive as soon as next year, and if they play their cards right a contender the following season. While the Panthers aren’t the only team that should look to go down this route, they might be the most likely team.

The Deal: The New Orleans Hornets traded SF/PF Craig Brackins and PF/C Darius Songaila to the Philadelphia 76ers for SG Willie Green and PF/C Jason Smith

Hornets: I really don’t see the advantage here for the Hornets. I understand on paper they add another 7 footer and more center depth in Smith. And at the same time Green is a good veteran shooting guard, but they gave up a promising rookie in Brackins to do so. Smith is a promising big man, but he really hasn’t ever showed it in the regular season. Also in terms of money both Green and and Songaila are free agents after this year, but Smith is a restricted FA next year and will make at least $3.1 million, Brackins will make half of that and won’t hit restricted free agency until after the 2014/15 season. There is just not enough immediate or long term value for the Hornets, to make this trade worthwhile.

76ers: Philly wins big here getting an extra 1st round pick for a redundant veteran in Green and essentially a draft bust in Jason Smith. Brackins has a lot of potential and should give the 76ers good minutes at both the 3 and 4 positions. He will struggle some against stronger 4′s but should hold his own overall. He is a smart, efficient player who contributes both on offense and on the boards. Brackins long term is great value for Green and Smith, and really might be better this season than the pair.

Winner: For me this is a no brainer as Brackins has a ton of long term potential and the 76ers should be very happy with this deal. I think the Hornets made a major miscalculation with this deal and will regret it before the year is out.

Revis Island Will Be Uninhabited On Sunday: The Jets won a crucial divisional matchup last week against the Patriots, but lost All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis to a hamstring injury. While the injury isn’t likely a long term problem, it will keep Revis out of action this week against the Miami Dolphins and star receiver Brandon Marshall. New York is smart for not playing Revis this week, even if it does potentially hurt their chances of winning another tough divisional game. If Revis plays he has a big chance of doing further damage to the injury, keeping him out for much longer than one game. The Jets defense can survive without Revis for one game (even against Marshall) but I don’t think they could last a month or more.

Steelers Go With Batch Sunday Against Buccaneers: Boy Leftwich must still be pretty injured if they are going with Charlie Batch to start this week. While technically he was just ‘resigned’ this week, he was only not a Steeler for about 30 Hrs. I’m guessing he didn’t forget the playbook in that time period. Not only is Leftwich the more talented quarterback with better physical tools and starting experience, but up until three and a half weeks ago, when he got injured, he was getting all the starters work in practice. Batch barely played this preseason or got many reps in practice until Leftwich went down. And it is not as though Batch set the world a blaze with his performance last Sunday against the Titans. In addition to all of that Leftwich was traded by the Buccaneers this offseason to the Steelers, so I’m sure he would have loved a little payback and the chance to show them they were wrong to give up on him. Since Batch will be the man under center for the Steelers this Sunday, I’d expect a healthy dose of Rashard Mendenhall and the rest of the ground attack. Also, I’d expect a lot of short passes as the Steelers attempt to grind out their third win of the season.

Raiders Had Campbell On A Short Leash, Go With Gradkowski: It is a bit surprising the Raiders didn’t give Jason Campbell more time to figure it out, or at least one more chance to redeem himself, but it is hard to argue with Gradkowski’s numbers and result. Gradkowski came in for Campbell in relief on Sunday and led the Raiders to victory over the Rams. Now he is tabbed as the starting quarterback. While Campbell’s numbers were less than impressive, much of that comes from his week 1 beating against the Tennessee Titans. A defense that sacked him four times, and constantly had him under pressure. The move is surprising, not because the Raiders gave up alot for Campbell, but that Campbell had been building on a pretty solid career up until this season. Now the Raiders have a new man under center and Campbell is left on the bench. My guess is it won’t be a short stay on the bench for Campbell though. While there is always a chance that Gradkowski is ineffective or injured, I’m thinking a trade could be on the way. Looking around the league, there are a number of weak quarterback situations that Campbell could step in as a starter right away. In addition there are a few other situations where he would be either a solid back up or a stop gap situation while a young QB develops. The Seahawks, Bills, Browns and Cardinals could all use an immediate upgrade at quarterback, while the Chiefs, 49ers, Jaguars, Panthers and Vikings could all use a little insurance. Remember Campbell is signed for just $3.14 million this season (with the Raiders obviously already paying some of that) and just $4.5 million next year. That is pretty affordable (though on the pricier side) for a backup on a team with an established quarterback. And is a great price if he actually starts on these teams. Campbell is a very good buy low option, and shouldn’t cost more than the 4th round pick in 2012 that the Raiders gave up (though honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if Oakland could do better).

Honestly it is no surprise that other teams are hoping to cash in on the Eagles promoting Micheal Vick to starting quarterback, by trying to trade for opening day starter Kevin Kolb. Kolb, not Vick was the reason the Eagles felt comfortable moving Donovan McNabb in the offseason, and it is Kolb that has a brighter NFL future. That all being said I understand the team’s decision to go with the hot hand in Vick over Kolb. I also understand the Eagles reluctance to respond favorably to any phone calls from opposing G.M’s right now.

Kolb is still a young and promising quarterback and unlike Vick (and McNabb) Kolb is signed through next season. He would be an immediate upgrade over the quarterback situations in at least a half dozen cities, and could probably compete for a starting job in another half dozen. While Kolb had a bad opening game against Green Bay, it was just one game. Matt Schaub didn’t look to great against the Colts, but rebounded fairly well against the Redskins.

While Vick proponents, who think Kolb is done will point to his success these past two weeks they leave out a few salient details. For one thing Vick came in relief of Kolb and the Packers defense didn’t game plan all week for that situation. Had they spent their time gearing up for Vick it is possible his numbers would have been much worse. And while the Lions had all week to prepare for Vick and they still couldn’t stop him, it was the Detroit Lions defense, one of the weakest in the league.  If Kolb had the opportunity to face them, he very well could have put up just as good if not better numbers.

Now this was a tough situation for the Eagles and they might have made the best decision, but there is no way they should entertain the possibility of trading Kolb. For one thing they’d be selling extremely low on him, not exactly the best idea. For another they have already had one QB injury, what happens if they have another and Vick goes down. Do they really want to turn the ball over to rookie Mike Kafka, when they had Kolb on the roster? Also, remember this is just two games for Michael Vick, one of which was against a bad team. What happens if he starts to struggle as defenses start throwing different looks at him. Even in his best years Vick wasn’t a true ‘franchise’ quarterback, and it is hard to believe he is right now. Finally, Vick is a free agent after this season and up until 2 weeks ago it seemed like his time in Philly was over. What if Vick doesn’t want to return to the Eagles or gets a mega-deal in free agency Philly can’t match. The Eagles could end up without both quarterbacks, and need to scramble to find a viable option behind center.

While I’m not surprised to see teams calling to see if they can get Kolb on the cheap and take the P.R. nightmare off the Eagles hands, Philadelphia is making the right call here rejecting all offers. While some fans have given up on Kolb he still has a future, and it could still yet be as the Eagles longterm answer at quarterback.

In a somewhat surprising move, the Washington Redskins released Larry Johnson yesterday and signed RB Chad Simpson from the Bills practice squad. For anyone who watched Johnson’s performance in the first two weeks of the season it is not that surprising to see him on his way out, but it is a bit unlike Mike Shanahan to release him so soon. There was a lot of hype surrounding the signing of Johnson this offseason, as he was supposed to be the power back to compliment Portis and help ‘put games away’. So it is refreshing to see the team admit their mistake and cut Johnson now before he can do too much damage.

For such a veteran and one time star player, Johnson has played like a rookie. In limited action in two games, Johnson is averaging about a half yard per carry this season. And in two games he has made two crucial mistakes. In the Cowboys game, late in the 4th quarter, Johnson ran out of bounds on a stretch play, instead of going down in bounds to keep the clock moving. Had he stayed in bounds it would have forced the Cowboys to call a timeout and given them less chances at the end of the game. In the Texans game at the start of the 4th quarter, after the Texans drove in for a touchdown to cut the lead to 10, Johnson screwed up again. On 1st down Johnson took the handoff and was contained, but instead of going down for a 1 yard loss, Johnson tried reversing the field and ended up losing 10 yards. The Redskins drive was stalled, and left the Texans with good field position, which they turned into 3 points. In very limited work Johnson made two BIG mistakes, that maybe didn’t directly lead to the Skins loss on Sunday or the final second win against the Cowboys, but did hurt Washington’s chances in both situations.

Considering he had a fairly forgettable preseason and training camp to go along with his early season performance, it was time to cut ties with Johnson. Interestingly enough though the team is siting the reason for Johnson’s release as something else than performance. They are saying that they needed a special team’s back for this Sunday’s game. And so that the need to sign Simpson for special teams, meant that Johnson had to be cut. I can only guess that this is just the polite way to say we don’t want Larry Johnson, because otherwise it doesn’t make sense. They have been using Devin Thomas to return kickoffs and have a few options to return punts, so they don’t want Simpson’s return ability. While Simpson can play other special team’s units, there are other options to cover punts and kicks. I think what it boils down to is they want their backup runningbacks to have more utility, something Johnson didn’t have. Not only could he not play special teams, but he was a liability in pass blocking and not a great receiver either. Undrafted rookie free agent Keiland Williams has already proven to be better in both of those areas than Johnson, as well as being big enough to be a solid option on short yardage. Simpson gives the Redskins a quicker running back option and could see some carries and catches out of the backfield.

I think Simpson’s speed is the primary reason they didn’t go with training camp wonder Ryan Torain to replace Johnson. Torain doesn’t really bring anything to the table that Portis or Williams don’t already have. Simpson has some speed and quickness, and while he’s not going to make anyone forget a Darren Sproles or Dexter McCluster, he helps give the Redskins a little different look (as well as his ability to help out with special teams). Simpson also has more game experience from his time with the Colts in 2008-2009.

Hopefully the Redskins aren’t looking to bring Johnson back, and will move forward with the young backs and give them a shot. If they don’t workout they can always address the position next year in free agency or the draft. Regardless, Johnson wasn’t worth the 3-year deal you gave him, even at the base salary and was never going to be the feature back in Washington.

Torre Leaves Open the Possibility of a New York Return: While this might peak Yankees fans interest if they don’t win the World Series this year, Torre was talking about their cross town rivals the New York Mets. While it might sound shocking to some, Torre finished up his playing career and began his managerial career as a member of the Mets, so it is hard not to see how those ties run deep for him. All-in-all its a lot of speculation based on one radio interview while the season is still in progress, but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely. The Mets will obviously make a managerial change,  and have the desire and money to make a big splash. Torre would get the most out of that lineup and give the team instant credibility. While i’m not buying it yet, it will be an interesting story to watch this offseason.

Yankees Add a Game to Their Lead Over the Rays: In an emotional night in which the Yankees unveiled a statue honoring the late George Steinbrenner, the Yankees held off their division rivals 8-6. It was a big win for the Yankees who now have a 1.5 game lead over the Rays for the division. Not only did they win the game, but they did so behind rookie pitcher Ivan Nova. Nova didn’t have a great game by any means, but the fact that he was able to pitch well enough to set up the team to win, means that the Yankees still have Hughes and Sabathia throwing in this series (as well as Burnett but that could be a long shot for a win). While the bullpen allowed the Rays to get a little closer they hung on when it counted and got New York their 91st win. This series is a crucial one for New York and will go a long way to determining who takes the East and who ends up with the Wild Card.

Steelers Without Dixon, Resign Leftwich to Battle Batch: The news on Dennis Dixon isn’t promising as it looks like a torn lateral meniscus, which will keep him sidelined 2-5 weeks. The Steelers quickly resigned Byron Leftwich who was released over the weekend, who has missed the last two weeks after spraining his knee in preseason. Leftwich was originally supposed to be the seat warmer for Ben Roethlisberger as he sits out this 4 game suspension, but now his healthy return to the field is a priority with Dixon’s injury. If Leftwich can’t go Charlie Batch will start this Sunday against the Buccaneers. Batch came in for Dixon this past Sunday and the numbers were less than impressive, as the Steelers really had to play a vastly more conservative game than they would have liked. With a limited passing attack the Titans were able to stack the line against the run slowing down Mendenhall. While a full week of practice could allow Batch to be more active in the passing attack, the best thing for the Steelers will be a healthy Leftwich, who has the arm to allow the Steelers to go vertical. While the Buccaneers have been a surprise team this year, the real test will be week 4 at home against the Ravens. For the Steelers to have any chance of winning they will need some sort of passing attack to try to balance out the run game.

Manning Bowl Ended Up Being a Blowout: There is little doubt the Manning Boys are two of the best quarterbacks in the league, but in yesterday’s matchup that was only evident on one side. To no one’s real surprise, older brother Peyton ended up the victor, but what was shocking was how bad the Giants looked as a team. The Colts jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead, and never let up as they cruised to their 38-14 victory. They had major success running the football as well, which isn’t always their strong suite. And of course Peyton was dominate in his own right. The Giants on the other hand had success running, but when you are down by 24 points it is almost counter-productive. And while overall Eli had a solid game, he had a pretty bad first half which led to his team’s demise.

Steelers Stop Chris Johnson and the Titans: The Steelers were outgained 238-127, didn’t score a single offensive touchdown, lost their starting quarterback, and managed just 21 passing yards, yet they left Tennessee with the win. The Steelers defense took both of the Titans two main weapons out of the game (literally in the case of Vince Young). Chris Johnson managed just 34 yards on 13 carries, and another 19 on 5 receptions. Johnson had a streak of 12 100 yard games going entering yesterday, but the Steelers found a way to contain him. Without Johnson, or Young who was benched because of ineffectiveness the Titans were without their two playmakers. While Kerry Collins led a bit of a comeback it was too little too late, as the defense held. While starting out 2-0 is great for the Steelers they did lose Dixon to a knee injury, and they will need to figure out what to do for the next 2 weeks. The passing attack was nonexistent after Dixon left, as was the loss of the scrambling threat. While the loss of Dixon was tough, it was a big win for the Steelers against a 2nd straight playoff contending team. And just how good is that Steelers defense? Last week the Titans rolled for 38 points against the Raiders, this week they had 11. And the Steelers in week 1 held the Falcons to just 9 points, and yesterday they put up 41 against the Cardinals.

Sanchez Comes Through For The J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS: One week after looking completely lost Mark Sanchez, had the game of his career (I’m still not drinking the “Franchise” Kool-Aid, but impressive game nonetheless). What was most impressive for me was the fact that he remained cool under pressure and led a comeback. Also, while the Patriots defense might not be as good as the Ravens it is pretty good in its own right, and he had no problem navigating them. The Patriots meanwhile, couldn’t stop Sanchez or the Jets running game, and they could’t do anything offensively in the 2nd half. While the Jets defense didn’t get the sacks, they harassed Brady all day and forced two interceptions. If Sanchez is on the Jets can go far with that defense, that has now held two of the best offenses in the AFC to a combined 23 points.

Bears Go to 2-0 By Upsetting the Cowboys Who Fall to 0-2: Dallas was supposed to come out with a vengeance yesterday and redeem their opening game loss in a big way over the Bears. I guess no one told Chicago that, because they were by far the best team on the football field yesterday. The Bears attacked Tony Romo early and jumped out to an early lead which forced Dallas to abandon the run. While Romo rebounded, and ended up with good number it was too little too late as the Cowboys lost their home opener 27-20. The Cowboys defense had no answer for Jay Cutler and was picked apart, by Chicago’s spread offense. The Bears now might need to be taken seriously in the NFC (especially since Minnesota is 0-2), and the Cowboys really need to take a look at themselves. Because after two games this team doesn’t look like the Super Bowl contender they were billed to be.

Kansas City (+3.0) @ Cleveland: The Chiefs and Browns are both pretty weak overall teams, but I really liked what I saw with Kansas City last week. Adding Dexter McCluster gave them a major special teams weapon, one that should start to see a bigger role on offense. While I’m no Matt Cassel fan, K.C. has solid receivers and a great one-two running back combo. Cleveland is an improved team, but they still have a ways to go. Their quarterback situation is completely unsettled and until that is figured out, their offense can’t get going. I like the Chiefs here to win a close one 20-17.

Pittsburgh (+5.0) @ Tennessee: Pittsburgh on the road in Tennessee is a tough match up, especially without their top quarterback. The deciding factor in the game though will be how the Steelers control Chris Johnson. Johnson has run all over ever defense that has opposed him in the last year, but if any defense can stop him it’s Pittsburgh’s. If the Steelers stop Johnson and force the Titans to throw the ball they should win, but If Johnson gets a 100 yards, you have got to like Tennessee in this one. I think Pittsburgh keeps it close, but Johnson and Tennessee breakout at the end, 23-17 Tennessee.

New England (-3.0) @ New York (Jets): Normally with the best defense and being at home the Jets should be the favorite, but their woeful offensive performance last week has them at 3.0 underdogs against their division foe. While the Patriots have a high powered offense they can’t hope to score much against the Jets top defense, but luckily their solid defense should be more than enough to hinder the Jets offense led by Mark Sanchez. Sanchez needs to come through in the clutch today if the Jets are to be taken as serious contenders, but I don’t see it happening. New England wins a low scoring affair 17-10 to take a two game lead in the division.

New York (Giants) (+5.0) @ Indianapolis: The Colts got upset last week and their soft underbelly was exposed when the Texans ran all over them for the win. Peyton Manning still threw for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s so the offense isn’t really a concern. The Colts do still need to add balance to their rushing attack, but as long as Peyton is at the helm I like the Colts in the Manning Bowl. The Giants could keep it close, but I can’t see Indianapolis losing at home to go to 0-2. While New York has a good overall defense their pass defense is a bit porous, which doesn’t bode well against Older Brother. Colts win 31-21 to even themselves up this season.

While there aren’t the big matchups of last weekend there is still plenty of good college football to watch today.

(6) Texas vs. Texas Tech: The Longhorns might be ranked 6th, but they haven’t been tested yet and have shown that their offense is still a work in progress. Their top secondary will get challenged in a big way today with Tech’s spread offense. For the Longhorns to win they will have to stop or at least slow down Texas Tech’s high powered offense. The Longhorns aren’t good enough to win in a shootout so defense is key today. 35-24 Texas.

(10) Florida vs. Tennessee: There is little doubt that Florida is the better team in this game and they should be able to win, but Tennessee is known to surprise. It is never easy playing in Knoxville, and just last week the Volunteers played the Oregon Ducks to a tie in the first half (and actually outplayed them). They came back to earth in the 2nd half, but if a few big plays didn’t happen it could have been a different outcome. Florida hasn’t looked as sharp as Oregon this year, as that offense is still figuring itself out. To make matters worse some off the field distractions could have the Gators not taking Tennessee seriously. In the end Florida wins 24-13.

Clemson vs. (16) Auburn: Even though Clemson is unranked they stand as a major challenge to the Auburn Tigers. While their offense may have lost two of its playmakers last season Clemson can still move the ball on offense. On defense Clemson has a couple extremely good young players that should give the Auburn offense fits all day. Auburn though is a good team in their own right and has the best advantage of all, home field. I see the matchup of the two Tigers a close one, but think Auburn pulls it out 28-24.

(9) Iowa vs (24) Arizona: Not only is this the game of the week, but its the only match up of Top 25 teams this week. Despite the appearance of one team being ranked 15 spots higher than the other one, this should be a very good close game. Both Iowa and Arizona are impressive young teams with good offensive and defensive balance. The Wildcats do have the great home field advantage equalizer and are capable of winning this game, but I think Iowas is too balanced for their defense to stop. The Hawkeyes can beat you both through the air and on the ground, and I don’t think Arizona can contain both. In addition that Iowa defense gets after that quarterback with the best of them, if they put the pressure on Nick Foles then the Hawkeyes will win 27-21.

With yesterday’s decision to reduce Vincent Jackson’s suspension it was inevitable that the Redskins would be linked to the talented but troubled receiver. Washington’s receiving corps is among the weakest in the league, as well as being one of the smallest groups of players in the NFL. Jackson would help in both fronts, he is a 6’5″ frontline receiver that is tough to cover one-on-one. In addition, at just 27 he is in the prime of his career, and younger than the Redskins top 4 receivers (everyone but Thomas and Banks). So why is it a bad idea for the Redskins to get interested? Because they will further hurt their long term success by trading for him.

Washington has already given up their 3rd and 4th round picks for next year (they will get a 5th-7th round pick back from the Saints depending how the McNabb and Brown deals work out), after giving up their 2nd and 3rd rounders this year (for McNabb and Jarmon — who almost didn’t make the team), and 2 years after giving up their 2nd rounder for Jason Taylor (the Skins gave up a 6th rounder as well). So in summary the Redskins have given up 5 good picks over the last three drafts (including the one coming up) and have Taylor, McNabb, Brown and Jarmon to show for it. Now most people might look at that and say the Redskins did pretty well, but I look at that list and think they got throughly fleeced.

Now I will say I did support the Jarmon supplemental round draft pick at the time, though the transition to a 3-4 made that a bad pick in hindsight. I will also say that I’m a fan of the Brown deal. While he is only signed for one year and coming off an injury, he is signed for a good price for this season, $3.6 million, and is still relatively young. So a 5-year extension after this season wouldn’t be a bad deal. I also like the deal, because there was no net loss of a draft pick* (now if he plays in 90% of the offensive snaps or goes to the Pro Bowl there would be a loss of a 6th round pick). Outside of the conditional pick though the Saints will receive which ever pick (3rd or 4th round) that the Eagles don’t get (will explain in a bit). If the Saints get the 3rd round pick then they give back a 5th round pick and if they receive the 4th rounder than they give back a 6th or 7th round pick* (not sure of the condition here I’m presuming it is based off of whether it is early in the round or not). Either way the Redskins don’t ‘lose a pick’ rather they just trade back and get Brown as the compensation. While there is a value jump between the 3rd and 5th rounds or 4th and 6th or 7th, it is very preferable not to lose a draft pick.

Compare the Brown deal to the McNabb one and that is a huge win for the Redskins. In the McNabb deal the Redskins gave up their 2nd round pick (37th overall, so with the depth of that draft basically 1st round value) and either a 3rd or 4th round pick in 2011. The pick is a 3rd rounder if McNabb makes the Pro Bowl, the Redskins make the playoffs, or win at least 9 games, and will be a 4th round pick otherwise. Either way that is quite a bit of value to give up for a 33 year old quarterback, in the final year of his deal making $12 million this year. While barring an injury or something else unforeseen the Redskins will likely workout an extension with McNabb, the problem is they will likely overpay him and extend him to the point where he is no longer effective. Given his injury history I don’t see him being successful into his late 30′s, but he will obviously want a sizable commitment. While fans of McNabb will point out his immediate impact and position make him more valuable than most 2nd round picks and even many 2nd and 3rd round picks, they ignore that it is for only one season. They didn’t ‘trade’ for any extension, it wasn’t part of the deal. Meaning they gave up an awful lot for 1 season of McNabb. Especially considering this was a 4-12 team last year. Even with ‘extending him’, there is a fair probability that those two draft picks will out perform McNabb over the next 5 years (and at a much cheaper price).

What does all of that have to do with a potential Vincent Jackson deal? Well it’s simple the Redskins have already mortgaged a chunk of their future, and the last thing they should do is keep adding to that debt. Overpaying for McNabb hurt this team’s long term success probability, and doing the same for Vincent Jackson could be catastrophic. For one thing the Redskins already have to dole out extensions to McNabb and Brown after this season, so giving big money to a receiver during the year will increase their prices. And while this year there was no salary cap, that likely won’t be the case going forward. There might not be the cap room to sign all of these players (not to mention other free agents like Carlos Rodgers or Rocky McIntosh), and if you ‘find’ the room, you are likely hurting your cap in future years (aka what got the Skins in this mess in the first place).   In addition, the Redskins simply can’t afford the loss of another premium pick, as I’m guessing Washington’s 2nd rounder this year (plus more) would need to be involved. 2011 is shaping up to be even a better draft class than 2010 (which was probably the best in 6 years) and the Redskins are already lacking  two top 130 picks.

In addition to already giving up draft picks, Jackson is a very risky pick up. For one thing he was suspended by the league for a reason. If he has any more incidents with the law, he could be looking at a 6 game or more suspension next time. And while Jackson might not have the worst attitude in the league, he isn’t exactly the best team player as well, and frequently would make stupid penalties. So even when he does finally see the field this year, the Redskins will have a risk going forward.

The other part of this potential deal I don’t like is that you have to make the deal now (by next Wed. or he sits out longer), but he can’t suit up until Week 5. Given the Redskins upcoming schedule (Texans, Rams, and Eagles), it will be tough for them to be 2-2 by the time Jackson can suit up. And when he is ready to play, the Redskins face off against the Packers and the Colts back-to-back. While some might see this as a plus, for me it is a negative, since as we have seen in the past with receivers traded midyear (Braylon Edwards, Roy Williams) that they need some time to adjust to the offense. Jackson’s impact against the Packers and Colts (and for the next couple of weeks) will be negligible at best. The Redskins 2-2 start could easily end up being a 3-5 record heading into the bye week. Sure it’s possible that their record is better heading into their bye, but I really wouldn’t bet the farm on it, and I don’t see Jackson as the answer.

While the Redskins receiving corps needs to improve long term, trading for Jackson won’t really help solve the problem this year. So for your troubles the Redskins will give up at least one premium pick as well as a contract that will pay him $8-10 million a year for at least 5 years. That for me isn’t worth the cost in terms of both money and picks, and the potential headaches that Jackson could bring. For me Jackson might make sense if you start out 4-0 and have an easier schedule, but the Skins got a tough schedule and have to make a decision by early next week (sooner if they want to make sure they get him). Washington needs to stop acting like a Super Bowl contender and build a lasting success, to do that they need to start saying no to guys like Vincent Jackson and focus on the future.