With a combined $64 million doled out to starters CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez, and the emergence of Phil Hughes starting pitching would seem like it would be the Yankees greatest strength. Instead it appears to be their Achilles heel going forward. Now no one can really fault Sabathia, Pettitte or Hughes as all three of them have just dominated all season, but Vazquez and Burnett haven’t lived up to their big money contracts (also Vazquez hasn’t been worth the prospects the Yankees gave up to acquire him). Things took a turn for the worse yesterday when Andy Pettitte went on the D.L. with a groin injury that could sideline him up to 5 weeks.

In some fairness, Vazquez has looked better over the past month, and has cut over 4 runs off his ERA (it currently sits at 4.45), but he is far from a sure thing going forward. While he is overall a very good pitcher, Vazquez for some reason has struggled in New York (twice now). With the uncertainty of Burnett and the Pettitte injury, Vazquez is still a bit of a wild card for the Yankees. And while Vazquez has improved over the last month, both Hughes and Burnett have added over a run to their ERA. While Hughes is still pitching well, he isn’t dominating like he did the first two months of the season, leaving more games in the hands of a shaky bullpen. Burnett is even more troubling, as he is pretty much imploding on and off the pitching mound. In his last start after giving up a home run he injured himself by slamming his hands into a clubhouse door, during the game. The injury seemed to affect him and he didn’t last much longer, but the troubling thing is what this means going forward. There was already uncertainty about whether or not Burnett would make his next start (and how effective he will be). Now with the Pettitte injury, the pressure is on Burnett to return to form and to keep his anger in check. Pettitte had been more or less the Yankees ace this year, every fifth day taking the mound and dominating the opposition. Now the Yankees will be without their veteran starter for at least the next month and the team needs to look for other options.

While New York says they are looking internally to replace Pettitte, I have to believe they will look to make a trade. The problem is the Yankees are in a bit of a bind. They have already said they aren’t going to trade Jesus Montero their top prospect in a deal for a starter, but now their need has jumped up quite a bit. If Pettitte didn’t get injured and/or the bullpen was effective New York could have waited some middling starter as an insurance policy. Now though the Yankees need not only a starter, but a quality one, that can consistently go 7+ innings.

The market doesn’t favor New York as the top two starters remaining, Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren would definitely require Montero (or everyone else in their farm system). While New York will inquire about both players, I don’t see them getting a trade done since they have already dealt a number of their top chips in the Granderson and Vazquez deals. After Oswalt and Haren, the market thins out some Ted Lilly is an option as are Jake Westbrook and Ben Sheets (all pitchers whose contracts are up after this season). Lilly is the best of the bunch (and ironically he was traded with Westbrook 10 years ago to the Yankees), as his down year this season is still superior to what Sheets and Westbrook are doing. He also profiles as a Type-A free agent meaning the Yankees can get some draft picks back (although they will have to give up more) after the season. While Fautso Carmona and Ricky Nolasco are likely on the market, their contract status will probably make them too costly for New York (in terms of prospects). One other pitcher that might make sense to the Yankees is Paul Maholm of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He is a lefty so he will help keep that balance in the rotation, and he is under control for a reasonable amount next season. He is still fairly young and gives Pittsburgh solid innings, but he won’t cost the Yankees their top prospects.

One way or another New York needs to figure out what to do in their rotation, because while they remain in first place now, a month without Pettitte could very well leave them in 3rd. While neither the Rays or Red Sox have made moves yet, both could easily overcome the Yankees as they are presently constructed.

Over the past few weeks we have seen quite a bit about Adam Dunn’s trade value, and how the Nationals shouldn’t expect much in return for Dunn. The belief seems to be that Dunn isn’t a valuable player and I have to disagree completely with this perception of Dunn. People say that Dunn’s defense (which has killed him in the past) is a fluke this season, when in reality I believe there is another reason. Dunn’s UZR numbers favor him, because he is actually playing decent defense, is he a gold glover no, but he is pretty solid at first. And I believe there is a direct cause and effect relationship with why is defense is so vastly improved, and that is for the first time in his career he entered the offseason knowing he’d play first so he worked at it. He was no longer splitting his time between the OF and 1B, and his effort to improve himself has shown greatly. I’m also not sure where this perception that he is a 1-2 win player (according to WAR), his last two years his numbers are down because of how bad his defense was. But in his 9 year career (full seasons) he has posted a WAR 3.1 or over 5 times including this season, and one of the years he missed 45 games. And yes only two of those years are since 2006, but those lower WAR numbers are mainly due to his defense. His bat is usually worth about 4-5 wins, and this year it is even better. And while his best value will be if he can maintain being just a slightly below average 1B, Dunn would have been a 3.1 and a 4.1 win player each of the last two years if he was a DH and took that negative positional value over his defense. For a comparison only 4 DH’s have posted a WAR above 3.0 during the last two years.

I think people have looked solely at his average, WAR and SO’s and assume that Dunn isn’t a good player, when on the contrary any contender should want him. Dunn is one of the best offensive producers in the league, and while his OF defense has buried him in terms of value and perception, he has immense trade value as a 1B or DH.I realize there is also a misnomer that Dunn said he won’t DH, well that was in the sense that he wanted to work extra hard this year to improve himself at 1B (now that he had found a position). Those reports were basically saying that he doesn’t want to give up playing in the field because he loves to play and he doesn’t want to be thought of solely as a DH. If he gets traded to the White Sox or Yankees I don’t think he won’t DH for them, it just means he might not be as likely to resign him in the offseason if that’s how they view him.

Dunn is easily 1st or 2nd on the trade market right now (in terms of bats) depending on whether Fielder is in play (and Dunn would cost a lot less in money and prospects). He might not bring the Nationals back a massive windfall, but he should bring them back two pretty good prospects. Over the next few days I will look into deeper the reasons why the Nationals should look to move Dunn and other players.

1. Roy Oswalt: It remains to be seen if the Astros will part with one of their favorite players, but it is probably in the best interest to the team. Houston is in a rebuilding phase, and they have one of the weakest farm systems in the league (particularly in the high minors). Oswalt is also owed $16 million next year and has a $2 million team buyout for 2012 (or $16 team option). Add in the $7 million owed to him this year still, and the Astros have plenty of reasons to look to move their ace. It is a hefty contract, which will take some teams out of the running, but Houston has said they are willing to take on salary to get a better prospect return. As for his value I would peg it in the range as to what the Phillies gave up for Cliff Lee last year, and maybe slightly less. Oswalt has a no trade clause in his contract so it could get a bit dicey, but he is still the best pitcher on the market.

2. Dan Haren: It wasn’t long ago that Haren was supposed to be the major piece acquired by the Diamondbacks to take them to the next level, now it looks like Haren may be on the move again. He still has two years ($12.75 per) left on his deal after this year, and an option year in 2013. Haren at 29 years of age is very affordable at this price and is by no means a salary dump. He is struggling a bit this season, but not horribly so. The real question remains is if the Diamondbacks will put him on the market, and what their asking price will be. Given their struggles, I’m sure they will listen on him. But since they just gave up some very talented prospects, it will probably take quite a bit to acquire Haren.

3. Ted Lilly: Lilly will actually attract more teams, given his cost (free agent after this season, and a Type-A at that) and the fact that he is left handed, but he isn’t nearly the upgrade Oswalt or Haren are. Lilly is still getting it done, and the Cubs look to be sellers this month. His price tag won’t be exorbitant (which also should interest some teams) but he should net the Cubs two solid players.

4. Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins look to move into sell mode over the next month and Nolasco will likely be one of the top players dealt. He is having another good year, and could slot into most rotations as a quality 3. He still has two arbitration years remaining after the season making him very cheap and valuable compared to a number of the other pitchers. The Marlins will want a pretty good return, but will likely move him to get the maximum value.

5. Paul Maholm: The list drops off a bit after Nolasco, but Maholm can still help a contender down the stretch. He is a middle of the rotation lefty, who gives solid innings. He won’t ever be a frontline starter, but can be a solid 4 on a contender. He still has $6.5 (2011 season and a buyout in 2012) remaining after this year, which is pretty affordable. He won’t cost a ton in a return package, which helps increase his value. The Pirates are definitely entering a sell mode and Maholm will be one of their top chips.

1. 1B Prince Fielder- Fielder isn’t fully on the market, but if so would be the best power bat available. His defense is suspect and he might be a DH long term, but for right now he could still fill the need for a first baseman. Fielder has one more year of Arbitration, so he has added value of not being a rental (for some teams), but it should be a hefty price tag, probably north of $14 million for next season, which could eliminate some suitors. All in all though, Fielder is the best hitter on the market, if the Brewers decided to sell.

2. 1B Adam Dunn- Dunn doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but he is one of the best power hitters in the league, and he is having a great year at the plate overall. He is an impending free agent, so he probably won’t be as expensive to acquire. He does project to be a Type-A free agent meaning any team would receive two picks for him if he left this offseason, which does increase his value. Dunn has a played the outfield in the past, but he has seemingly found his home at first base, and should be viewed strictly as a 1B/DH. It’s not a 100% certain the Nats make him available (they are talking extension), but if they do he will greatly improve one team’s pennant race aspirations.

3. OF Jayson Werth- Werth is an odd name to be on the list since the Phillies are in the middle of a playoff race, but they have their top prospect Dominic Brown waiting in the wings and could use Werth to acquire a top pitcher. Philly knows Werth will be playing somewhere else next season, so if they can get a return that can help them this year they may pull the trigger. The only problem is Brown would need to produce from day one, and that plan could easily backfire. I think it is far from certain that Werth is dealt, but the possibility is there.

4. OF Josh Willingham- Willingham has one more year of arbitration after this season, and will probably get something in the $8-10 million range. Considering he has just over $2 million left on his contract this year, and he is in the midst of a career year that’s a pretty good price to pay. Willingham is about a .280-25-90 guy, but has shown some flashes of improving on those numbers. His defense has also been much better this season, making him a good buy for N.L. teams as well. It still remains to be seen in the Nationals will trade him, but it is likely in their best long term interest to move him while his stock is so high.

5. OF Corey Hart- Hart is in the midst of a career season and is the only All-Star on the list, but is ranked below the others because his production screams of a fluke. It’s not to say that Hart doesn’t have value, but his 22 home runs and .928 OPS seems unsustainable. Especially for next year, Hart’s last under team control. The past two season’s Hart’s OPS has been in the .750′s, which puts his numbers this year in serious question. Hart does have value, and I get why the Brewers want to sell high, but he comes with a buyer beware tag.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet:

1. New Orleans Saints: They just won the Super Bowl. They’re the best until proven otherwise.
2. Minnesota Vikings: Assuming Brett Favre comes back, this team is one of the most talented top-to-bottom in the NFL.
3. Dallas Cowboys: Their D looked dominant late last season, and Dez Bryant should fit right in on offense.
4. Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore should be looking at an elite offense for the first time in years. Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth were much needed assets.
5. Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers is shaping up to be one of the best quarterbacks in football.
6. San Diego Chargers: They’re solid every year, but they haven’t made any drastic improvements. They need to find an every down back, and hopefully rookie Ryan Matthews is the answer.
7. New York Jets: If I were to pick a team most likely to not reach their expectations – the Jets would be it. They look good on paper, but Mark Sanchez is still a question mark.
8. New England Patriots: I have a feeling Tom Brady and the Patriots will be ranked much higher than this by week 8 or so.
9. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons could be a huge (but obvious) sleeper this season. Matt Ryan had what looked like a down year last year, and he could have a Pro Bowl type season ahead of him.
10. Indianapolis Colts: It’s bound to happen at some point. Age, a few injuries, bad luck. This team can’t win 12 games each season forever.
11. Philadelphia Eagles: This is another team that could potentially jump the rankings fairly quickly. Kevin Kolb needs to be average for this team to make the playoffs.
12. New York Giants: They had a dismal year last season. This year’s defense can’t be that bad again, can they?
13. Cincinnati Bengals: It’s hard to tell how good or bad this team will be. They made solid draft picks in Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham, but will they be difference makers? Pittsburgh and Baltimore will likely be better than the season prior.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger must be motivated this season. If not, he probably shouldn’t be playing football.
15. Houston Texans: It’s hard to see this team improving much. No one will be overlooking them, and Matt Schaub is a constant injury scare.
16. Tennessee Titans: By week 8 they’ll be ranked somewhere between 1 and 32 depending on Vince Young.
17. San Francisco 49ers: They could win their division, but that’s not saying much.
18. Carolina Panthers: Who is their QB? It’s hard to see them doing any better than third place in the NFC South.
19. Chicago Bears: Sleeper alert – there are no expectations for Jay Cutler and the Bears this season.
20. Arizona Cardinals: I honestly don’t see it with this team. Matt Leinart has not shown that he’s NFL-capable.
21. Denver Broncos: The holiday is over for Josh McDaniels. The Broncos looked putrid after their 2-8 finish to ’09.
22. Miami Dolphins: Again, sleeper alert – this team is talented on both sides of the ball, and Brandon Marshall should add another dimension to their offense. They were a tough 7-9 team last year.
23. Seattle Seahawks: They play in a weak division. They could somehow end up 9-7 with luck on their side.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew is an animal, but not much else is going for the Jags.
25. Washington Redskins: McNabb looks good on paper, but he doesn’t have many options on offense, and the line is still a huge question mark. The defense will also be taking a step back with personnel that don’t quite fit a 3-4 and Albert Haynesworth off pouting.
26. Cleveland Browns: They’re rebuilding. Colt McCoy could be the quarterback of the future.
27. Oakland Raiders: Even with Jason Campbell, it’s hard to predict success for an organization that’s run so poorly.
28. Buffalo Bills: This franchise has to be on the verge of relocating.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: The Matt Cassel era is just about over.
30. Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford has a lively arm. The Lions could win a few games that they’re not supposed to.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s little chance that this team sees serious improvements. Josh Freeman is a long way away from being a solid NFL QB.
32. St. Louis Rams: This is a weak roster. Chris Long, taken second overall in the 2008 draft, is looking like a mediocre player.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

I’ll preface this post by saying that I’ve never been a fan of LeBron James as a person, as nearly every public statement he makes seems like a lazy attempt to filter his super-ego. Quite simply, I’ve always thought the guy’s public persona is wholly contrived – he just doesn’t seem genuine. I think, now that the dust has settled, this is a good opportunity to evaluate how LeBron stands in the public eye.

LeBron, since day one in the NBA, has stressed the importance of team basketball and that winning is what’s ultimately important to him. For example, two seasons ago, LeBron scored 52 points and a triple-double in Madison Square Garden. This came literally two nights after Kobe Bryant set the record for points in a game at MSG (61). In the ensuing press conference, LeBron brushed the whole thing off and said he was only focused on his team winning. His team, a 66-win juggernaut, facing off against one of the lowliest franchises in professional sports apparently needed 50+ points and a triple-double from LeBron to ice the win. It’s not that LeBron wanted to contend with Kobe – that’s great – it’s that he sits in front of hundreds of reporters and puts on this façade of being a humble role-player.

I think ultimately what we learned about LeBron after this whole free agency fiasco – and one hour TV LeBron-athon, is that LeBron is not the person he pretends to be in front of cameras. Signing with Miami was not a choice inspired by winning. If winning was his top priority, he would have signed with Chicago and brought Chris Bosh with him. Chicago has the pieces to become an instant dynasty. With Miami, the pieces are still being fit into place, and there is no certainty as to how good this lopsided Miami team will be.

Even more importantly, the LeBronathon was so disheartening because he didn’t re-sign with Cleveland. Prior to the announcement, it was unfathomable that LeBron would actually air a TV special in which he rubs his loyal fans’ noses in the fact that he is leaving them for greener pastures. It would seem so self-absorbed, so cheap. It seemed that airing this whole thing on national TV all but sealed his return Cleveland. Apparently I was wrong. LeBron has far less tact or respect than I gave him credit for.

Dan Gilbert’s fuming letter to fans, albeit elementary and at times laughable, was a shockingly reasonable and appropriate response to LeBron’s antics. LeBron was everything to Cleveland – he was a hometown hero and the backbone of their stagnant economy and despite all this, he still could not leave quietly. LeBron doesn’t owe it to Cleveland to stay there and close out his career with a less than championship caliber team, but he does owe it to them to show some respect. Cleveland fans have a right to be angry.

In the end, it never truly mattered where LeBron ended up because no matter where he went, the results would be roughly the same: instant title contention (although I’m not quite sold on Miami’s three-man roster yet). The issue lies with LeBron’s graceless departure from Cleveland that was nothing short of self-centered and disrespectful. I just hope that after all of this, his vapid media statements are no longer received as words from a selfless team player with a championship, Jordan-esque mentality.

The Phoenix Suns have moved on from Amare Stoudemire and are doing a good job of reshaping their roster to remain competitive in the Western Conference. Their first moves in signing Hakim Warrick and resigning Channing Frye assured them they wouldn’t be left in the cold when Amare left. Then by working out a sign and trade deal with the Knicks, gave the Suns the trade exception needed to continue to add players to their roster. That trade exception allowed Phoenix to facilitate a pair of deals today that bring Hedo Turkoglu and Josh Childress to the roster while giving up Leandro Barbosa (and a 2nd round pick).

While some may question the deals I think they are both good fits for the Phoenix offense. Turkoglu struggled with the Raptors, but will now be a part of a better team with an elite point guard that can set him up. His versatility to give minutes from the 2-4, make him very valuable on a Suns team that likes to get out and run. Turkoglu might not fill Amare’s shoes himself, but between him and Warrick I don’t think the Suns will miss much. And while Turkoglu doesn’t have the best contract in the world it is 40% of what the Suns would have had to pay Amare Stoudemire. Not to mention that Turkoglu is giving up some guaranteed money in the final year of the deal, making him easier to trade/waive if he doesn’t age well. And while the Suns did have to give up Barbosa to add Turkoglu, its not a horrible deal. Phoenix would have to pay Barbosa $15 million over the next two years, and now will only increase that an extra $5+ million for Turkoglu (he still has two years after that). That’s not bad considering Barbosa is extremely redundant on the Suns and Turkoglu should be getting at least 25 min a game. Turkoglu can be a good 3rd option on the Suns, and is known for coming through in the clutch.

As for the other player the Suns acquired, Josh Childress, Phoenix got a solid guard/forward who will help fill some of Barbosa’s role while at the same time deepening their depth at SF as well. Childress isn’t a star, but with the Suns he won’t have to be. He is a solid scorer, though not much of a three point shooter. He is long and is a pretty decent defender. Given his versatility he should see 20 minutes a night and could see more given the injury histories of Jason Richardson and Grant Hill. Childress is a great insurance policy and at 27 years old he still has some of his best basketball ahead of him.

Overall the Suns knew they weren’t able to replace Amare Stoudemire with one player, so they did a solid job of building the deepest roster in the NBA. Their second unit of Goran Dragic, Josh Childress, Jared Dudley, Hakim Warrick and Channing Frye is better than most team’s first units. Also the Suns have excellent lineup composition, since everyone of their backups can handle at least two positions. The Suns will be the freshest team on the floor and can absorb any short term injury, but it will remain to be seen if their team first aspect can compete with the star laden teams at the top of the conference.

The “Heat” is on: Not only did Miami land the top three free agents, but they landed them at a reduced rate…. How bad does the Amare Stoudemire contract look now? Now the Heat have money to play with and they have done well with it. Landing Mike Miller an ultimate sniper from the wing. He won’t get many shots given his teammates, but the ones he does have will be WIDE OPEN. Miller is a good fit because he can shoot cold and doesn’t need a high volume of shots. The Heat have more money and are looking at point guards and or bringing back Haslem. Personally I think they should invest in a pair of centers. Bosh has already stated he doesn’t want to play too much center, and point guard isn’t as much of a need as its made out to be. For one thing Mario Chalmers can play, he might never be an All-Star but he should be able to handle the point. Another thing is that Wade and James are such good ball handlers, that they can run the offense. Signing a Derek Fisher looks good on paper, but he isn’t going to be able to guard Rose or Rondo, so whats the point. You might not find a great center, but at least a big body can give you some fouls when you face an elite big man.

Knicks Continue to Move On: I credit New York for making the most of a bad situation. First they do a great sign and trade with the Warriors now they land Raymond Felton for 2 years. Felton isn’t a top notch point guard, but he isn’t too bad either. At over $7 million a year the Knicks didn’t really overpay and the short contract allows them to have cap flexiblity for the future (Chris Paul in two years??). The Knicks are also taking a flyer on a Russian big man, Timofey Mozgov, which could end up being a steal if he reaches his potential. Regardless the Knicks have done well not to over pay players or get stuck with any long term deals (with the exception of Amare).

Undrafted to Big Bucks: Jazz restricted free agent guard Wesley Mathews signed a 5 year $34 million offer sheet with the Portland Trail Blazers. Mathews was a rookie last season, but given the crack scouting of NBA scouting directors he went undrafted. He only ended up being a starter on a playoff team, and now is a restricted free agent that will be cashing in. A $7 million average is very good money for only one year of production, but I think he could be worth it. The Jazz have one week to decide whether or not to match the offer for their young G/F, either way Mathews is in a great spot.

The Trade: The Mariners trade P Cliff Lee and RP Mark Lowe to the Rangers for 1B Justin Smoak, P Blake Beavan (AA), RP Josh Lueke (AA), 2B Matt Lawson (AA)

Rangers: Texas made a bold move yesterday trading away their top young prospect Justin Smoak along with three AA  prospects for a half a year rental of Cliff Lee and a solid relief arm in Mark Lowe. Smoak is a steep price to pay for the former Cy Young award winning pitcher, even if the Mariners did through in some cash. Smoak is one of the top young hitters in all of baseball, and while he hasn’t produced yet this season, it is only a matter of time. I think Smoak is an All-Star, middle of the order hitting first baseman and will be ready to assume that role as soon as next season. He is the guy that will likely come back and haunt the Rangers the most. In return the Rangers got Cliff Lee the ace and Mark Lowe a guy who is out till at least September. Lee does give Texas the frontline starter they need to advance in the playoffs, but he will be a free agent this fall. And given the Rangers financial situation they have no chance to resign him (even if they did that shouldn’t affect Lee’s trade value). The one plus of Lee is he will be a Type A free agent which will net Texas two premium draft picks when he signs this winter.

Mariners: I like what Seattle did with the Lee deal, especially throwing in the extra money to get a better prospect return. Seattle gave up three prospects at the beginning of the season to acquire Lee in the hopes that he would help propel them on a playoff run. Things haven’t turned out well for the Mariners as a team, but luckily Lee has been pretty dominate. Seattle actually got more in return for Lee with this deal, than what they gave up 8 months ago. Smoak is the prize, and was ranked as one of the top prospects in all of baseball before the season. Him alone is more value than the 3 prospects they gave up to acquire Lee. On top of Smoak the Mariners received three other Double-A prospects. The two best are the pitchers Beavan and Lueke. Beavan is a former 1st round pick of the Rangers and while he no longer profiles as a front of the rotation pitcher, he has been very successful at Double-A and is still just 21 years old. His ceiling might be that of a number 3 starter, but he should definitely make an MLB rotation within the next two years. Lueke is a power arm out of the bullpen and could end up a closer one day. His stock would be higher, but he was arrested for rape last year, while he ended up pleading to a much lesser offense and was released with time served, his off the field problems may keep him from ever reaching is on the field potential. The final player the Rangers gave up was 2B Matt Lawson. Lawson isn’t a top prospect and profiles as more of a utility guy in the majors, but is a hard working ball player that could be a cheap bench player for Seattle. The Mariners made the right move acquiring prospects instead of just sitting on their hands and waiting for draft picks. Draft picks are nice but they are usually 4+ years away, Smoak is ready now and Beavan and Lueke should be ready within 2 years. In addition you will have to sign the draft picks (not always and easy task) and pay them at least a combined $3 million.

Winner: I really think the Mariners are the winner in this deal, they got a potential All-Star first baseman for the next 5 years, as well as a couple other decent prospects for 3 months of Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe who has 2 more years of Arb. (but can never stay healthy). The Rangers might be a little better in the playoffs, but I don’t think they are World Series favorites. If they were going to give up Smoak they should have received a pitcher under control for a couple of years. I think this deal will end up a big win for Seattle and a big disappointment for Texas.