There are a lot of confusing rumors out there surrounding Adam Dunn and the Nationals trade demands, but one thing that had been persistent was the rumor that the Nationals wanted D-backs (at the time) pitcher Edwin Jackson. Despite the fact this made little sense from the Nationals perspective this rumor persisted, and got on fire when the White Sox acquired Jackson from the Diamondbacks and seemed ready to deal him for Dunn. Now wisely the the Nationals are balking at Jackson, but in doing so they might have burned a big suitor for Dunn and really hampered their ability to make a deal.

Whether or not this is true, there is a good deal of smoke here, so presumably there is some fire to it. And if it is holding up Dunn talks then it doesn’t really matter who’s fault it is, that perception alone is hurting the Nationals. Now I have applauded Mike Rizzo since he took over as the Nationals General Manager, and think he has made some good moves. But I for the life of me don’t understand his interest in Edwin Jackson, particularly as part of a deal for one of your major trade chips.

Jackson has always been an extremely promising pitcher with loads of potential, but he has never reached that ace level. He has never been a real consistent pitcher, and has always had major control and command problems. While he put together decent years in 2008 and 2009 making you believe that he was finally becoming a front line pitcher, Jackson regressed sharply this year. Even when he threw a no-hitter this year, he walked 8 batters. Jackson isn’t exactly the type of pitcher you hope to build your staff around, and he really doesn’t fit the profile of the player who gets traded for a 40 HR hitter.

What makes it even more bizarre that the Nationals even wanted him, is his contract. Jackson, despite his age (26), isn’t some young pitcher with 3+ years of team control left, he is entering his final year before free agency and it is a bit of an expensive one ($8.35). Add in the $2 million he is still owed this year, and that is a lot of money to pay for a veteran pitcher, especially when you aren’t contending. Now the Nationals may go acquire another veteran starter this offseason, via trade or free agency, but they aren’t going to sacrifice their top trade chip to do so. That just doesn’t make any sense. Even if you get a good quality prospect with Jackson, you are still taking on an expensive pitcher that you don’t need instead of additional prospects.

Personally from the Nationals perspective I would much rather have the two prospects they sent in the Jackson deal, than Jackson. RHP Dan Hudson is basically Major League ready. He profiles as a 3rd-4th starter, and should do well in the National League. He might not offer more upside than Jackson, but he is under team control for another 6 years, and the first 3 of those combined (plus this year) won’t be as much money as the Nationals would owe to Jackson for the rest of this season. In addition the White Sox sent 19 year old LHP David Holmberg, who is a young kid with a lot of projection. He is years away and needs to develop a better fastball to stay in the rotation, but he has promise. If the White Sox offered the Nats those two pitchers plus one of their top hitting prospects that would have been a good deal for Adam Dunn.

Now even if the White Sox are happy keeping Jackson (which does make some sense since they need another pitcher these next two years, and are a contender) I don’t know if they have the pieces to make this deal work. Hudson and Holmberg were probably the two best pitchers in the White Sox system (yeah it is a pretty bare cupboard in Chicago), meaning this deal will have to involve multiple young hitters. Involving multiple young hitters isn’t an issue as the White Sox have a few intriguing names, and the Nationals need to add young bats, but the White Sox hitters don’t match up well with Washington. Chicago’s top prospect Jared Mitchell has missed this entire season with an injury and no one knows how he will be when he recovers, so he is likely out. Two of their next two guys are kinda redundant in D.C., C Tyler Flowers and 3B Brent Morel. Flowers would have been a great get a couple days ago, but now that the Nationals added Wilson Ramos to their catching mix, Flowers is a bit less attractive. Morel looks like he is a 3B only, which is problematic since the Nationals have Ryan Zimmerman there. CF Jordan Danks is an option, though some of his luster has worn off with a tough year in AAA. He is still a nice young prospect, but it seems clear that Chicago rushed him a little bit. 3B-1B Dayan Viciedo is an interesting option, but he is up with the big league club so I think Chicago will be reluctant to deal him. If the Nationals can get two of these players, plus a lesser prospect or two they can still get good value for Dunn.

I still don’t fully believe that the door is closed on the White Sox getting Dunn, but it probably has gotten harder given the Jackson ‘miscommunication’. The White Sox still need a big bat for a serious postseason run and the Nationals would be wise to cash in on Dunn’s value so the motivation remains, right now I’d put the chances at a Dunn trade to the White Sox at about 40%.

The Deals: The Phillies acquire Roy Oswalt and $11 million from the Astros for LHP J.A. Happ (MLB), OF Anthony Gose (A+) and IF Jonathan Villar (A-)

The Astros acquire 1B Brett Wallace (AAA) from the Blue Jays for OF Anthony Gose (A+)

Phillies: Philadelphia did a great job in this deal, not only acquire Oswalt for a third N.L. Title run, but to get him at the price they did. Happ is a nice back of the rotation starter, who gets by because he is a lefty (and quite a bit of luck). The fact that he headlines this deal is a huge steal for the Phillies. Gose and Villar are nice young prospects but they weren’t going to be in Philly for another 3-4 years. Neither player is going to help the Phillies win these next two seasons, but that is exactly what Oswalt will do. The best part of this deal is the fact that the Astros kicked in $11 million of the $23 million owed to Oswalt, which means the Phillies have another ace at half the price. The fact that the Phillies didn’t have to give up any more or better prospects to get that amount of money shows just how desperate the Astros were to move Oswalt.

Astros: The Astros sold low on Oswalt and only saved half the money that was owed to him so they didn’t really help their bottom line. Happ and two low minors prospects is a weak return for Oswalt, not to mention the $11 million they kicked in. While Astros fans will talk about the $12 million they saved, I don’t think it will amount to that much, because I imagine they will lose some money at the box office. Now I fully believe they should have traded Oswalt and use that money in other areas, but they will lose fans and money by making this move. The Astros should have acquired 1-2 additionals prospects or one other top prospect to even begin to get to even value for what they gave up. The only positive is they were able to flip Gose to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace. Wallace who has already been traded for Matt Holliday and former Philly prospect Michael Taylor in the past 12 months, is a quality 1B prospect. Wallace for Gose is a great deal for the Astros since it gives them not only the higher rated prospect, but the one closest to the majors. Wallace profiles as a solid defensive 1B, who has good plate discipline and 30 HR power. He should be starting for the Astros no later than the beginning of next season, and gives Houston a quality piece to build around for the future.

Blue Jays: Toronto made a bit of a strange move by making the side deal for Gose. Wallace was a top prospect and should have commanded a similar return or could headline a major trade. Gose could profile as a high quality center fielder, but they paid a high price for him. Wallace is basically major league ready and with Lyle Overbay moving on next season (earlier if they trade him), there is a starting spot for Wallace on the Jays. While they have some other nice 1B prospects, none are as good or ready as Wallace. The Blue Jays did seem to be poised to contend by the start of the 2012 season, but now I would begin to question that timeline.

Winner: The Phillies are the big winner in this deal, not only getting Oswalt but getting money in this deal as well. As for the Astros, they soundly lost the Philly portion of this trade, but helped offset that with a big win in the Toronto side of this deal. The Blue Jays made a strange move here selling low on Wallace, who seemed like a major part of their future.

As we await for the news of a Roy Oswalt-Phillies trade, there were a few minor deals completed yesterday:

Tigers Grab Peralta From Division Foe: The Tigers filled their need for an infielder by trading for Indians 3B Jhonny Peralta. The Tigers gave up Low-A pitching prospect Giovanni Soto. The Indians are paying the majority of Peralta’s salary this year, but do save on his buyout for next year. In return they receive a young prospect, who isn’t considered a top guy, but his youth and results work in his favor. The Tigers get Peralta, who at one time was considered a major part of the Indians franchise but has seen his production decline of late. Peralta can still help out a major league lineup and since the Indians are paying the majority of his salary it won’t hurt Detroit’s bottom line.  Tigers win this trade given their need, and lack of giving up a quality prospect.

Dodgers Add Podsednik to Their Outfield: Dodgers added the speedy and versatile Scott Podsednik for C Lucas May (AAA) and RHP Elisaul Pimentel (A-).

Podsednik is having another solid season with a .310/.353/.400 line to go along with 30 stolen bases. He brings average defense, and the versatility to play every outfield position. The thing the Dodgers probably liked the most was his price tag, not in terms of prospects, but in cash. Podsednik is only due another 600K this season and will likely be a Type-B free agent after the end of the year, meaning Los Angeles can recoup a draft pick.

For the Royals, they picked up two solid prospects with for 2 months of Podsednik. Neither is considered a major get, but they add to the depth of their system. Lucas May is the better of the two prospects and could develop into a solid starter. His bat is nearly major league ready, but he just switched to catcher 3 years ago so his defense is still a work in progress. May might be ready by the start of next season as a back up and could make Buck expendable down the line. Pimentel will probably project as a middle reliever by the time he makes it to the show, but he has a couple interesting pitches that get results.

All-in-all it is a solid return for Podsednik who is a nice player, but not really a difference maker. The Dodgers got the outfield depth they need, but really didn’t change their status as the third best team in the N.L. West. They gave up some nice prospects but nothing major so that is good, but they will need to make another move if they hope to cement their playoff chances.

The trade market for Adam Dunn seems to be heating up and yesterday we got an inside look into it what the Nationals are looking for and the possible parameters of a deal. ESPN Chicago’s Bruce Levine heard from sources that the Nationals want RHP Dan Hudson (MLB/AAA) and one of CF Jordan Danks (AAA), 3B Brent Morel (AAA), C Tyler Flowers (AAA) in any deal. Now the question becomes would this deal be enough for the Nationals to move their 40 HR slugger?

I believe the answer to that question is yes with a couple of conditions. One, I believe the White Sox need to pay the entire remaining portion of Dunn’s salary (about $5.5 million). And two, I think the White Sox will need to add a third and possibly fourth piece to this deal, likely nothing of major significance. With at least 5 other teams in the Dunn hunt, I think Chicago will have to increase their offer a little bit.

As for the players we do know, I like Hudson, but think he peaks as a 3rd starter. That being said, he makes a fine centerpiece in the deal for Dunn. He will give the Nats 6 years of team control and he is pretty much ready to pitch in the big leagues today. He isn’t a 100% sure thing, but he should make it in the majors. Hudson should also benefit with a move to the National League and a more neutral ballpark.

As for the other part of the deal, I personally like Tyler Flowers the best, followed by Brent Morel, and then Jordan Danks. All three players have upside, but Flowers is far and away the best fit. Morel is the best pure hitter, a solid defender, and probably just a year away. But his power barely gets by at 3B, and that position won’t be open in D.C. for quite sometime. He isn’t a good fit to move to the outfield or 1B given his lack of power, and would really only make sense to the Nats for prospect depth to trade away.

Danks for me doesn’t make much sense in Washington either, he’s a nice player but has been over-hyped in a weak Chicago system. Yes he plays solid centerfield, but Chicago challenged him too much by starting him off in AAA and it has not worked. He is probably at least 2 years away from heading to the majors and this year’s set back has taken some of the luster off of Danks. If he reaches his upside, he could be a Jim Edmonds out in center, but there aren’t any guarantees. And unless he reaches his full potential he might not be able to crack the Nationals lineup.

For me process of elimination alone makes Flowers the choice, but he is more than just the last man standing among Chicago’s top prospects. Flowers is having a bit of a down year in AAA, yet still has an OPS of .780. Flowers has big time power and solid plate discipline, that should allow his bat to play at the major league level. Also while early in his career there were questions as to whether or not he could stay behind the plate, he has developed into a solid defensive catcher. Flowers is major league ready now and could start splitting time with Pudge Rodriguez (can’t get much better of an apprenticeship than that), and possibly take over for him as a starter some point next season. While the Nats have a good young catching prospect in Derek Norris, he is probably 3 years away and could even help headline a major trade himself in a year or two when the Nats look to add a big time player for a stretch run. Flowers is the best bet for the Nationals given his proximity to the majors and the position he plays, and I would definitely do a Hudson-Flowers deal.

A Hudson-Flowers trade plus 1-2 lower minor league players (likely pitchers) is a good return for 2 months of Adam Dunn, and worth more than the 2 draft picks the Nats would receive in the offseason. While it is still possible another team offers a better young prospect or prospects, a Dunn-White Sox union seems likely.

Part II: The Case for trading Josh Willingham and Matt Capps:

Josh Willingham: Willingham has been ultra productive in his time with the Nationals and has fully capitalized on the potential everyone saw in him in Florida. His durability, which had been an issue before, has not been a problem in a year and a half. And his defense which was shaky last season, has gone back to his career standard of being average. Willingham’s bat though is where much of his value lies and he has exceed expectations for the Nationals. Willingham is showing himself off as being a good 3^rd power option on the Nats and could be a 5^th-6^th hitter on any team.

Willingham’s value is further increased by his contract status, as he is in his 5^th year of service time, giving prospective buyers another year of team control with a price that should fall in the $6-9 million range (most likely in the mid –sevens). This makes him very affordable for a contender and gives them a good bat for two playoff runs.

Willingham isn’t an elite bat and not on the same level as Adam Dunn or Prince Fielder, but he makes a strong case for being the 3^rd best bat on the trade market (Corey Hart is in the discussion but Willingham has been far more consistent). Willingham is both cheaper this year and under another year of team control compared to Jayson Werth. Wherever you rank them, Willingham is one of the best bats available on the trade market this season if the Nationals make him available.

Willingham’s trade value will likely be less than Dunn’s on the trade market, but it won’t be by much. His positional value, contract and team control make him marketable to a number of teams. Low and mid-market contenders will find Willingham’s contract very appealing and make it more likely for them to give up young prospects. Willingham should bring two quality prospects in return, with at least one of them a ‘top 100 guy’. Also I would imagine 1-2 additional filler pieces in the deal, either young guys with a little projection or a AAAA guy who could be a bench player for Washington.

Matt Capps: As for Matt Capps, I know it must be a little tough to trade your lone All-Star representative, but it needs to be done. Capps is having a great bounce back year for the Nationals and is in just his 2nd arbitration year, meaning teams will have another year of team control at a reduced price. Capps might not be a front line closer, but given his afford-ability he will appeal to most teams even as a set-up guy. Capps isn’t a dominate closer and will make things interesting from time to time, but he gets results.

Capps’ value is further increased given the lack of quality back-end guys on the market and the number of teams looking for relief help. Capps is by far the best 8th or 9th inning guy available (unless the Royals put Soria on the market) and given his extra year he should fetch a fairly decent price. As for suitors, I think just about every team would love to strengthen their bullpen, but the most likely candidates are the Reds, Phillies and Yankees, but the Angels, Red Sox, and Rockies all could be as well. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays get involved if they want a cost controlled option for next year (as well as a much deeper bullpen this year).

As for the price for closers it is pretty hard to peg since there never seems to be any consistency and there are times where teams grossly overpay (please). That being said, it is reasonable to expect the Nationals to receive a pretty good return, given the contract, the supply (or lack their of) and the demand. I would peg the minimal return at one good prospect, one solid guy and one lesser player, but with the possibility of more if some team gets desperate.

Now I know people will argue that the goal for the Nationals shouldn’t be to have the best farm system, and that the goal is to win Major League baseball games, but the fact of the matter is you aren’t doing that so maybe it is time to put your resources to better use. Over the years the Nationals have hesitated in trading Dimitri Young, Ronnie Belliard (when he had a little value), Christian Guzman, and Chad Cordero, and all they have to show for it is a bunch of last place finishes and a lot of wasted money. Dunn, Willingham, and Capps all have significantly more value and can bring back a much higher quality of prospect. And as for the argument that having the best farm system isn’t the goal I don’t know if I fully believe that.

With the exception of the Yankees of late pretty much every team has relied heavily on their farm system, either to produce their own starter or to trade for other major pieces. Free agency can supplement a team, but it won’t build you a winner. The Nationals have a solid base but they need more young talent, and this is by far the best and quickest way to do that. While I gave approximate trade value the Nationals can increase that by adding a middle reliever or bench player to the mix as well. Washington can also look to pay part of these players salaries, which would mitigate the financial relief but could be made up into talent.

If the Nationals play their cards right they could be contending by 2012 and the benefit of doing it this way is you have set yourself up for long term success. I don’t look at this as a fire sale (even though I believe the Nats should move some other pieces like Livan, Guzman etc.) because the Nationals don’t need to trade any of these guys. I look at it as a smart baseball move that can help turn the Nationals into a perennial contender. In fact I’m all for the Nationals being very aggressive this year in the free agent market and taking a run at some of the top guys. I have no problem them trying to pursue Dunn in the offseason, but for me he isn’t a guy you can’t live without.

Even if the Nationals miss on resigning Dunn, there are plenty of solid 1B options they can pursue for a year or two. Also they might get a 1B prospect in return for one of these deals which might eliminate the need of going after a big time 1B. As for the outfield the Nationals could at least kick the tires on going after Carl Crawford, but otherwise their are a few decent 2nd tier options available. As well as any young guys they get in return for their players. Capps though is the easiest to replace with Drew Storen waiting in the wings and Tyler Clippard there to help bridge the gap. These deals might not be fan favorites in Washington, but if executed properly they will make the Nationals relevant in the National League.

The Deal: The Los Angeles Angels acquire SP Dan Haren for SP Joe Saunders, SP Pat Corbin (A+), RP Rafael Rodriguez (AAA), and a PTBNL (likely SP Tyler Skaggs (A-):

Angels: Not only did Los Angeles win this trade, but they did so in a landslide. Dan Haren might be having a bit of a down year but this is a guy whose numbers put him as one of the top 25 pitchers in the league the past 5 years. And during his past two years with the Diamondbacks he was a top 10 pitcher. Now most people might not put him in that elite of a category as he doesn’t have the dominate pitches you usually associate with an ‘ace’, but at worse he is an excellent number 2 starter. What makes him even more valuable is his age and contract. Haren will turn 30 later this year is only due about $4 million the rest of this season, and is under contract for $12.75 a year in both 2011 and 2012. Haren has a very affordable 2013 option at $15.5 which should get picked up, barring some major injury. The Angels acquired a very affordable frontline pitcher for the next 3 and a half years and really didn’t give up anything to do so. They traded more last season for Scott Kazmir who hadn’t been nearly as consistent as Haren. Now the Angels will make a solid run at a playoff berth this year, but are completely set up in their pitching rotation for 2011. All-around this is a great move by the Angels, one that will help them on the field and off, particularly as they look to attract free agents this offseason.

Diamondbacks: I keep looking at this trade and for some reason expect it to get better, but alas it does not. And unless it ends up being 3 PTBNL and they are all top prospects, this is just a bad deal. I have no problem with the Diamondbacks targeting pitching since that is the weakness in their system, though it did severely limit your return from the Angels as their top guys are all hitters. What I do have a problem with is the fact that they have nothing to show for trading their ace. Talk about selling low on a guy, of the 3 prospects the D-backs acquired just one ranked in the top 10 of Keith Law, Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, and that is Skaggs the player to be named later. Skaggs is a good prospect and has pitched well this year in low-A, but there was a couple reasons he ranked on the low end of those top 10 lists. One, he is straight out of High School and while he has pitched well this year, he is probably at least 3 years away. Secondly, while he is projectable, he is far from a sure thing and really only projects as number 3 type of pitcher. Unfortunately for Arizona fans Skaggs is the peak of this deal.

Pat Corbin is a solid prospect and another young left-hander in the midst of a good year in the lower minors. He too is probably about three years away, but he is less of a sure thing, especially when it comes to being in the starting rotation. Rafael Rodriguez is the lone righty and reliever in this deal, but he doesn’t bring much to the table. He should easily make it in the Diamondbacks horrendous bullpen, but will probably never be more than a solid middle reliever at best. From a name standpoint Joe Saunders is the headliner of this deal, but in reality he might be the weakest link. Saunders is a back of the rotation lefty starter, who gives up way too many hits and home runs. His perception and contract are inflated, given the fact that he won 33 games between 2008-2009. While he was pretty good in 2008 he pitched above his head in 2009, and his win totaled was boosted by being on a very good team (and some luck). This year his numbers have gotten worse and his win total has collapsed. What makes things worse for the D-backs is that given his previous win totals Saunders will make probably close to $6 million next season in Arbitration (and even more the year after that). That will significantly eat into the money that the Diamonbacks saved by trading Haren. And what’s worse is that Saunders isn’t worth that much on the open market, but because of P.R. issues they can’t even think of non-tendering him.

This deal was just awful for Arizona as they shouldn’t have taken back any money, much less on a guy like Saunders. Then on top of that the rest of their return wasn’t impressive at all. If I was Arizona I would have insisted on Trevor Reckling be involved in the deal in place of Saunders and a lower pitcher like Trevor Bell or bullpen prospect Jordan Walden to replace Rodriguez. Even then it wouldn’t have been a great deal since there are no sure things, but it would have been a much better return for 3 and a half years of one of the better pitchers in baseball.

Winner: It is not even close the Angels won this deal the moment Trout’s name wasn’t included or it wasn’t for 8 guys. It’s doubtful Los Angeles will ever miss any of these guys, and they set themselves up big time over these next couple of years.

First, I just want to say as a fan I love all three players, and am happy to have watched them and even met them at Fanfest. All three are great guys, and exceptionally nice, and all seem like stand up guys in the locker room as well. But the problem is, what is best for the Nationals future is to sacrifice the present. Dunn, Willingham and Capps are having career years (or close to it), and yet the Nationals are still in last place in the N.L. East and have the 7th worst record in all of baseball. And this is coming on the heels of having the worst record in baseball last season, with Dunn and Willingham in the middle of the lineup.

While a fan might point out that the injury bug has wrecked havoc on the pitching staff this year with Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler missing the whole season so far and Jason Marquis and Scott Olsen missing significant time, they need to realize the Nats have had a lot go right this season as well. Not only are Dunn, Willingham, and Capps exceeding expectations, but Ryan Zimmerman, Tyler Clippard, Pudge Rodriguez, and Livan Hernandez have played excellent ball as well. In addition rookies Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Roger Bernadina have had major contributions right off the bat. So while the injuries in their rotation have set them back, rookies and veterans alike are preforming at or well above expectations, and the Nationals are still in the bottom third of baseball. Now the optimist might say, well just wait till next year when J-Zim and Detwiler can join the rotation full time and add another piece or two in free agency, but that ignores the possibility that other players could get injured or have their performances collapse. And when it comes down to it, the Nationals (knock on wood) have been barely touched by the injury bug. Look at division rivals like the Phillies or Mets. Philadelphia has been without Placido Palanco, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and J.A. Happ for significant portions of the season and the Mets have been without Beltran all season and have been without Jon Niese and Jose Reyes for solid chunks of time as well. Are we really going to complain that we didn’t have Marquis and Zimmermann, when these teams are without front line guys?

Another problem with the ‘wait till next year approach’ is that unlike this year when the Nationals were going to have a boost of rookies, there are no more reinforcements in the upper minors for Washington to call on. With the promotions of Strasburg, Storen, Desmond and Bernadina, the well is pretty dry at the AAA and AA levels for the Nationals. What you see is what you get with this team. That means any additional talent will need to come from the free agent or trade market (and you don’t really have a ton of prospects to trade). While things are better in D.C. I’m guessing the Nationals won’t be at the top of list for many players on the open market. Without a major influx of talent (and not just one big signing) the Nationals won’t escape the N.L. East cellar much less compete for the playoffs. Unless of course they make the tough decision and trade these three players (and possibly a few others).

Now it might seem backwards that trading two-thirds of the middle of your lineup and your All-Star closer will make you a better team and closer to contention, but that is exactly what I believe. And as for just trading either Dunn or Willingham or Capps because you have Storen waiting in the wings, the Nationals need to go all out, in for a penny in for a pound. All three players have their trade value at their highest point right now, and it is time for the Nationals to cash in on them. Here is a break down as to why each player should be traded and what the Nationals should look for in return.

Adam Dunn: Dunn is the most obvious player on this list. For one thing he is the most well-known player and likely the best bat available on the trade market. Another reason why Dunn is on the list is he is an impending free agent and while it is possible the Nats either sign him long term or get draft picks back in return, neither option is a guarantee. Dunn might get a better offer on the free agent market, and while that would assure getting two draft picks, you never know where the pick from the signing team will be. It could end up being a third round pick (or worse) which doesn’t have near the value of the original first round pick. The draft pick compensation is a nice consolation prize (especially if you are a contender) and helps to increase his value in a trade, but it is not a great option for making the Nats better long term.

For one thing you need to sign the draft picks which will cost money, and secondly they need to develop, which could take 2-5 years. And even then the player could be an absolute bust. While it is possible that the prospects acquired don’t pan out either, they will be closer to the majors and should have a much higher success rate.

Dunn’s value is at an all-time high, his bat is flat out crushing the ball in a time where power numbers are down across the league. While he still strikes out a ton, he has the power numbers and OBP to make up for it. On top of the value of his bat, Dunn’s glove is no longer the liability it once was. In Dunn’s first full season at first base he has shown he can adequately (compared to being god-awful in LF) handle the position, meaning he can be targeted by teams that need both a first baseman or a DH. Dunn’s impending free agency also actually helps make him attractive to certain teams, like the Angels who’s first baseman will be back next season, or the Rays or Rangers who might not be in a position to add long term payroll. Given the relative afford-ability ($ 5+ million remaining this year) and his impending draft pick compensation, contenders shouldn’t bulk at adding his bat for the stretch run.

Dunn might not bring back a prospect package that single-handedly change the Nationals fortunes, but it should bring back a good return. It will likely be a 3-4 player deal, with two players either major league ready or should be by next season and 1-2 players likely a couple years away. Two of the players should profile as good starting caliber players, with at least one having the upside to be great. While Dunn might not elicit a top 20 prospect like Smoak or Wallace (Lee and Holliday deals) he’s not far off. At least one prospect should be in that 25-40 range (or that level if they are already in the majors), while that might make it harder for a team like the White Sox or Angels to make a deal since they don’t have anyone on that level (Trout isn’t going anywhere), that just means the 2nd and 3rd piece of the deal need to be better.

Check back later for Part II when I look at the values for Willingham and Capps and give up some prospective trade scenarios

Dan Haren went from practically untouchable, to likely to be traded in about a week. Now, I think a deal will get done by the time Monday rolls around. While initial reports had the Yankees as the front runners, those have since turned out to be a bit premature. The Twins, Tigers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies are all highly interested in the right-hander, despite the fact that he has been struggling of late. The Yankees will probably remain front runners though since they have the easiest path to trade for Haren.

The Twins and Tigers are both on his no-trade list (as are the Rays if they get interested). Now that is not to say Haren won’t be dealt to those teams, just that the D-Backs will need to get his approval to complete a deal. Which is unfortunate for Arizona, since both teams can probably put together better deals than the Yankees. The Dodgers are problematic since they are in the division and would want the Diamondbacks to eat a chunk of change. While that would increase Arizona’s prospect package, it would be hard to swallow to face the Dodgers and you are paying the salary of the pitcher that is beating you. The Cardinals also would have a hard time fitting Haren in their budget, and they lack the farm system to deal for a pitcher like Haren. That leaves the Yankees as the team without any strings attached as they try to acquire Haren.

Haren won’t come cheap, as initial reports had the D-backs asking the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain, pitching prospect Ivan Nova and two other prospects. While the other two players were unknown, my guess is the Diamondbacks asked for two good prospects (possibly Zach McAllister and David Adams, the players rumored in the Cliff Lee deal). While the Yankees turned it down and in turn asked for a deal involving all prospects, my guess is Joba will need to be involved for a deal to take place. Chamberlain’s value has fallen well below the untouchable range, and New York should consider any deal that doesn’t include them giving up Jesus Montero. While I understand the Yankees are hesitant to give up on Chamberlain when is value is at it’s lowest, he is also no longer a rookie. His free agency clock is ticking and if you can get a player like Haren for him, who is signed for multiple years it isn’t a bad deal. Haren would also mean the Yankees would be out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes this offseason (one would think), which would save the Yankees quite a bit of money over the next couple of years.

I still wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers or even the Twins get heavily involved even if Haren would have to approve the deal. Given the state of both franchise’s as team’s built to contend over the next few years, I don’t see why Haren wouldn’t agree to a deal to those cities. Another dark horse team that could get involved is the Rangers, they already traded for Cliff Lee, but he is an impending free agent, and the Rangers could use an ace going forward. While their farm system is a little weaker they have the young frontline pitching the Diamondbacks desire. It might not be as much major league ready pitching, but they have the most high upside arms in the minors. Fitting his contract in their budget might be an issue, but he makes a ton of sense from a talent standpoint (as well as selling tickets). A Lee-Haren front of the rotation could carry Texas deep into the postseason, and deliver the Rangers their first World Series title.

While yesterday’s proposed trade fell through, Roy Oswalt remains one of the top players on the trade market, and one of the most likely to be moved by the July 31st deadline. That being said there seems to be a great debate as to what his value really is.

Few doubt that Oswalt is a premier pitcher, and no worse than a good (or even great in my book number 2). He might not be the bona fide ace that say Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia when they were traded, but he’s not far off. Oswalt has a career 143-81 record with a 3.22 ERA. While his record is 6-11 this season, much of that has to do with the failure of the Astros offense than any knock on Oswalt. His ERA sits at 3.12 and he is having one of the best season’s of his career. His strikeout rate (8.49 per 9 innings), HR rate (.80 lowest in 3 years), Avg. against (.222), and WHIP (1.07) are all incredibly impressive. His walk rate is up this year (2.40 per 9 innings), but since his K rate is so high and avg. against so low, it hasn’t been a big problem.

Few executives/baseball pundits are questioning Oswalt’s talent, they just aren’t sure if he is worth the contract going forward. This is the part I tend to disagree with them. Oswalt is owed roughly $7 million for the rest of this season, and not a bad figure considering the year he is having. The problem is what he is owed for the rest of his deal. Oswalt is scheduled to earn $16 million in 2011 and has a $16 million team option for 2012 with a $2 million buyout. Meaning that including the $7 million he is owed this season Oswalt will require $25 million for a year and a half of work (though you technically spread out that $2 million over a third year budget). While a few teams have balked at that price, most contenders are willing to pay it. The problem is that Oswalt has a full no-trade clause and wants his 2012 option picked up meaning he will be owed $39 million over the next 2 and a half years. That has left a lot of teams with pause in terms of acquiring the front line starter. For me though I don’t believe that is as big of a deal as people are making it out to be.

That $16 million a year is roughly the average that Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, and John Lackey signed for in free agency, and Oswalt has been a better pitcher than them throughout his career (and is having a better season this year). Oswalt is roughly the same age as them (and a few years younger than Lowe). And to top it all off the team acquiring him doesn’t have to pay it for 4-6 years, which is always the biggest problem with signing a free agent pitcher. Oswalt will probably be worth that money in 2012, but afterwards as he gets to his mid-30′s his production will likely decline, when you sign a free agent you are stuck with that deal. Now this will give teams financial flexibility going forward.

The other benefit with taking on all that money is it will lessen the prospect return. Oswalt won’t cost whomever acquires him what the Phillies paid for Roy Halladay or the Mariners and Diamondbacks paid for Eric Bedard and Dan Haren. His value is closer to Jake Peavy’s in terms of a trade return, and that is something that many teams can afford to give up. If Oswalt can be had for less than a front line prospect (even if it means giving up 3-4 solid guys) it will be worth it. His contract is far better than dipping into the free agent market (which you’d have to give up a draft pick for) and he won’t cost as much as say Dan Haren on the trade market.

The rumors are swirling and the return is murky so far but it appears that the Phillies are on the verge of acquiring Roy Oswalt from the Houston Astros. While the return isn’t known yet it is safe to say Dominic Brown is not part of the equation, as the Phillies are likely to move Jayson Werth in an effort to free up money and get prospects in return. This leaves me with a few questions to consider:

1. Did the Phillies make the right move trading Cliff Lee before the season?

2. Should they be moving Werth now, while they are in the middle of a playoff race?

3. Is Oswalt worth the money and prospect return for the Phillies?

4. Will the Phillies have the financial freedom to pursue free agents this offseason?