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Surprises At The Big East Tourney

March 12, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Big East Tournament is in many ways like a mini-NCAA Tournament, considering the talent and depth of teams involved. It is by far the most prestigious of the conference tournaments, as well as the toughest. This year that last part has been well emphasized, as many top teams have already fallen. In the first round perennial powerhouse UConn was throughly beaten by St. Johns. The second round saw last year’s winner Louisville, lose a close game to Cincinnati. Yesterday though was filled with upsets, with three of the top four seeds losing in their first game. Top ranked Syracuse lost to 8th seed Georgetown, while Pittsburgh got knocked off by 7th seed Notre Dame, and Villanova lost to Marquette. The lone top four seed to advance, was 3rd seed West Virginia who needed a last second shot to hold off Cincinnati.

Now because of yesterday’s massacre of top seeds, people will begin to question the Big East Tournament format and whether or not it should be changed. Because of it’s 16 team size the Big East Tournament has a unique format, where in which the top 8 teams receive a bye, and the top four teams get a double bye. In the last two seasons with the double bye format, those teams with the extra rest are 3-5 in their first round game. Now people are already calling for a change in format. I feel that is well premature. While it is disturbing that the double bye teams are falling so early, a few things should be remembered. One, these games for the most part have been very close, that number could have been worse, but it also could have easily been 6-2 or 7-1, in favor of the double bye teams. Two, we are only talking about two years here. If this was a trend over 5-6 years, I’d maybe say you have a problem, but if the top four seeds sweep the next two years (which is not out of the question) then that number is 11-5, quite a difference in opinion. The last thing that should be remembered is that this is the Big East we are talking about. They are by definition a super conference.

The Big East has more talent and parity then we’ve ever seen in college basketball before. Last season they had THREE number 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, despite the fact that two of those teams, UConn and Pitt lost their opening game in the Big East Tournament. This year the Big East isn’t as talented, but they will still send 8 teams tournament bound, and still have some of the top teams to watch. Teams like Marquette, Georgetown, and Louisville would have probably finished 3rd or 4th in most conferences. And teams like South Florida, Cincinnati, Seton Hall and even Connecticut, would have likely been top 8 seeds in another conference. My guess is if you broke up the Big East and spread them around the other conferences, you’d probably have a good 10-12 teams make the NCAA tournament each year, with at least two receiving number 1 seeds. That is how deep and talented this conference is.

Now I’m not saying this as a pity party for the Big East, just pointing out that all conference’s aren’t created equal. You can’t compare how the top four seeds in the Big East do, compared to the Big Ten or Pac-10 (honestly couldn’t just about any team in the Big East win the Pac-10 this season?). Or even compare them to two of the better conferences Big-12 and ACC. Those other ‘powerhouse’ conferences might run 7 or 8 teams deep, but the Big East runs a good 12 teams deep.

I think it would be too much of a knee-jerk reaction to change the format of the Big East Tournament. I don’t think they could go back to the way it was 3 years ago when only the top 12 teams made it. And while its feasible, I’m not sure if teams would want to do a tournament bracket system,where 1 seed plays 16, ect. Since that would negate any team from getting a bye. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail and they will keep the tournament as is for the next couple years before they make any changes. Maybe the double bye is harmful to those teams, but I’m not sold yet, and in the meantime I’ll just keep enjoying the best postseason basketball in the country.

Bengals Land WR Bryant

March 11, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Cincinnati Bengals filled a big hole yesterday with the signing of the top unrestricted free agent wideout, Antonio Bryant. The Bengals, who won the AFC North last season, had the league’s 26th ranked passing attack, despite having a good quarterback (Carson Palmer) and a top receiver (Chad Ochocinco). Adding weapons to their passing attack was a top priority this offseason, after the death of Chris Henry last year, and the release of Laveranues Coles. Bryant was one of two legitimate starting receivers on the market, with Terrell Owens being the other one. While T.O. might have been considered the better option by some, Bryant is the safer and more sure bet. Owens is on his last legs and did see his numbers drop off some last season (though being in Buffalo probably had a lot to do with that). At best, he probably has two good years left in the league, whereas Bryant is still in his prime and should have no problem playing at a high level for his entire four-year contract.

Some people might say the Bengals overpaid Bryant who has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. Since they paid him roughly what the Ravens paid Anquan Boldin after they traded for him, 4 years at $28 million. Yes $7 million a year sounds pricey, but you have to remember Nate Burleson got $5 million a year (with a good bit guaranteed). If Burleson is worth $ 5 million a year, you’ve got to pay Bryant $7 million a year. And while I’ll fully admit Bryant hasn’t been an elite receiver, and had his share of issues, labeling him as inconsistent is a bit unfair. Bryant has not exactly been blessed with being apart of good offenses.

Since Bryant entered the league in 2002, here is the list of starting quarterbacks throwing him the ball:

Dallas: 2002: Chad Hutchinson, Quincy Carter, 2003: Quincy Carter, 2004: Vinny Testaverde* (played 5 games with Dallas before trade)

Cleveland: 2004: Jeff Garcia, Luke McNown, Kelly Holcomb, 2005: Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye

San Francisco: 2006: Alex Smith

Tampa Bay: 2008: Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, 2009: Byron Leftwich, Josh Johnson, Josh Freeman

That is not exactly an ‘A list’ of NFL quarterbacks. In fact some of those names wouldn’t make a ‘Z list’ if it existed. Bryant’s two best years (which should come as no surprise) were when he had solid veterans (Dilfer and Garcia) throwing to him the majority of the time. People try to knock him for his production slipping to half of what it was in 2008, but seem to forget the MAJOR drop off between Jeff Garcia and Josh Johnson and Josh Freeman. In addition to playing with bad quarterback situations, Bryant has routinely been (far and away) the best receiver on his team (with the exception of his early years in Dallas). Also, Bryant’s teams have for the most part had awful ground games (exception of Frank Gore) putting more pressure on the quarterback, and more safety help deep. Despite playing on some anemic offenses, Bryant has 372 career catches and 5685 yards. He has averaged 15.3 yards per catch, and 3.5 catches and 53.6 yards per game. The per game numbers are a bit deceiving since he didn’t start all of those games, so those numbers should be a bit higher.

Now Bryant isn’t without his issues. Vocal fights with coaches got him sent out of both Dallas and San Francisco. And while he’s not considered a ‘bad’ teammate he has been somewhat of a distraction in most of his stops. Bryant was also suspended from the league for substance abuse, though that was later thrown out without a real explanation. He has rebuilt his reputation in Tampa, and was a big reason for their success in 2008. He didn’t have any major locker room or coach issues and has obviously stayed clean since returning to the league.

All-in-all Bryant has shown himself to be a quality receiver in the NFL capable of stretching the field, and giving smaller corner backs problems with his size and strength. Cincinnati is a good fit for Bryant because it gives him the three things he’s never had, a quality running game, a good quarterback and a top notch option opposite him. This is a win-win scenario for both sides here. Bryant finally has a team around him, and the Bengals have another weapon to expand their passing game this season. Now if Cincinnati can add a quality tight end, in the draft or through trade, they will have an offense to make a Super Bowl run.

Closing Time: Where Do The Twins Go From Here?

March 10, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Up until yesterday, the Minnesota Twins were the prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central and were considered a strong contender for the World Series. Minnesota might have been swept by the Yankees in Round 1 of the playoffs last season, but this year the Twins were built for a different outcome. Not only had their key players gotten healthy, but Minnesota revamped their biggest offensive/defensive weakness; their middle infield. With the additions of Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, the future began to look a little bright in Minnesota. All of that changed yesterday when it was announced that closer Joe Nathan was likely out for the season with an elbow injury.

As great a player that Joe Mauer is, it is Joe Nathan that the key to the Twins. Traditionally closers are one of the most overrated and over paid positions on a major league roster, Nathan is the exception (though he is paid quite well). Nathan’s name might get mentioned in the same breath with other top closers, but usually its not the first couple of names mentioned. In reality, no closer has been more dominate than Nathan since he started closing games in 2004. On top of that, no closer is more important to his team than Joe Nathan. While all contending teams need top closers, teams like the Red Sox and Yankees have ace pitchers like Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia, the Minnesota Twins have Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins. Minnesota doesn’t have the starting pitching that can win games by themselves, they rely on their bullpen to hold leads or keep it a 1 or 2 run game. And Nathan is the best stopper in the game. When Minnesota turns a lead over to him, they know that the majority of the time they can put another game in the win column.

Without Nathan the Twins are hurting, they have a pretty good collection of arms in the bullpen, but none of these guys can fill his shoes. First off if the Twins slot one of the other bullpen arms in the closers role, it will create another hole in the bullpen, and will still have a similar overall effect. While arms like Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek and others are impressive, they have their own roles in this bullpen. And their numbers might not be quite as good in a 9th inning pressure situation. While I think the Twins could cobble together a closer by committee for a month or two, they don’t have the experience or quality starting pitching to not address this need externally.

There are four primary options out there on the trade market that the Twins could look to right now:

Kerry Wood, Indians:  The Indians wouldn’t mind making this trade in the division as they are looking to rebuild, and Wood isn’t part of that process. While wood has transformed himself as a quality closer, he carries an 8 figure salary that the Twins can’t absorb. Unless the Indians were willing to eat quite a bit of the contract, and the Twins were willing to offer up the better quality prospects to ensure that they do, Wood doesn’t seem likely to be pitching for Minnesota this season.

Heath Bell, Padres:  Bell was great as the Padres closer last season and only makes $4 million. As an added bonus, Bell also has another year left of arbitration, which is good since Nathan probably won’t be 100% for much of next season. The downside to Bell is the Padres have attached a value to him, like he’s Joe Nathan. Their demands seem to be quite high in any trade negotiations, and might be more than the Twins are willing to give up. It is also a lot to ask since Bell has only been a closer for one season, and spent half of that year closing games at Petco Park, the best pitching park in baseball. While his numbers were good on the road, you have to wonder if that will keep up and how he will do in the American League. Bell is a nice addition, but probably too rich for Minnesota’s blood.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays:  The Blue Jays would definitely be looking to move Frasor as they are another rebuilding team looking to cash in on their trade chips. Frasor has been a good bullpen arm, who had a very good season in 2009. While he’d help upgrade the bullpen, he probably isn’t the answer to the loss of Nathan. Frasor has never been a full time closer, so this would be a jump for him. Also while Frasor’s 2010 price tag is nice ($2.65 million), he is a free agent after this season, which is a bit of a knock to his value.

George Sherrill, Dodgers:  So far you haven’t heard Sherrill’s name attached too often to Minnesota’s situation, but he seems like the perfect candidate. Sherrill has a year and a half of full time closing experience, which is more than either Bell or Frasor have. Also Sherrill has spent the majority of his career in the American League, including closing games for that year and a half in Baltimore. The O’s have a great hitters park, and faces the best offenses in baseball. Sherrill like Bell, has another year of arbitration, and makes only $4.5 million this season. In addition Sherrill brings another benefit to the table, he is a lefty. He is absolutely devastating towards left-handed batters, which will allow him to be a great set-up man when Nathan returns next year. The Dodgers will move him since they have Broxton in their bullpen and don’t seem to like too much paying Sherrill ‘closer’ money, compared to ‘set-up’ money. Los Angeles also doesn’t seem to be asking for the arm and the leg that San Diego seems to be looking for, making Sherrill the best buy out there.

What do you think? Who should the Twins look at to replace Nathan?

Free Agency And Trade Roundup:

March 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Seahawks trade Seneca Wallace to the Browns for a conditional 2011 draft pick:

This is a great deal for the Browns, assuming that the conditional pick is in the late to mid rounds of the 2011 draft. Wallace knows Holmgren and the West Coast Offense pretty well from their days together in Seattle. While he’s not an elite quarterback, he should do well to hold down the job until a long term solution can be found. Wallace is extremely athletic, which will help make up for his lack of natural quarterback skills. Holmgren did a great job of acquiring Wallace for a conditional pick next year, now the trade will be based on merit, instead of surrendering an asset this season. The Browns have done an impressive job of stockpiling draft picks this year, and by not touching them, Cleveland can be one of the movers and shakers on draft day. The extra selections will also allow Holmgren to clean house and bring in his players. The addition of Wallace knocks down the need for a quarterback a little on the Browns off season plan, likely Cleveland will now be targeting one with one of their 3rd round picks as opposed to grabbing one in the first two rounds. Wallace also means that Derek Anderson is packing his bags, and will be released any day now. And Brady Quinn might not be too far behind him, though he is more likely to be traded.

Eagles trade Reggie Brown to the Buccaneers for a 2011 6th round pick:

This is a solid move for Tampa Bay. Though Brown had never lived up to his 2nd round draft status, he has had some productive seasons with the Eagles. With recent additions though, Brown has fallen down the depth chart, so a new start is exactly what he he needs. Tampa didn’t surrender much at all to get Brown, who has a very reasonable long term contract. The Buccaneers had perhaps the worst receiving corps in the league last year, and are losing their top target (Antonio Bryant) in free agency. Brown isn’t the solution by himself, but he does bring some talent to the position.

Steelers re-sign Ryan Clark:

The Steelers did a great job of laying in the weeds on this one. Clark seemed all but gone, as he was taking visits and scheduling other ones, but the Steelers were always still in the hunt. Pittsburgh will be revamping their corner backs, so losing their safety would have created a big hole in the secondary. It was also a good move for Clark to back to Pittsburgh, where he’s experienced his greatest success. The Steelers aggressive defense utilizes Clark’s strengths well, and helps cover up his deficiencies in pass coverage. This should be a good signing for both sides.

Steelers sign (re-sign) Antwan Randle El:

This is a big of a surprise move for both Pittsburgh and Randle El. Now that’s not to say Randle El isn’t valuable, in fact I think he was one of the better unrestricted free agent receivers available (a much better option than Nate Burleson), but I just don’t see where Randle El fits in Pittsburgh. Surprisingly last season Pittsburgh was a throwing team, and while options were limited, it didn’t seem to affect the passing attack too much. Tight end Heath Miller really stepped up his game last season and became a great target in the middle of the field. Also 3rd round pick Mike Wallace came out of no where to be Pittsburgh’s primary deep threat. At the same time Santonio Holmes put together another wonderful season and led the Steelers with over 1,200 yards. While some might say Hines Ward is getting up there in age and has lost a step, it wasn’t too apparent last year when he caught 95 balls and had over 1,100 yards. He might not stretch the field as he once did, but he is still a fantastic possession receiver.

While its good to add depth, the signing of Randle El comes one day after Pittsburgh signed free agent Arnaz Battle from San Francisco. Its hard to see where the catches Randle El and Battle get in this offense will come from. Only 62 of the 351 completed passes last year went to other targets then the Steelers big four, and almost all of those went to running backs. With Mike Wallace likely seeing more balls thrown his way and Ward, Holmes and Miller all still playing at a premium level, its hard to see Randle El getting more than 20-25 catches this season. He likely could have found a much better situation on the open market, but I do understand how returning to Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense to Randle El. The biggest winner in this deal are the Steeler fans, because the return of Randle El and the signing of Battle means that Limas Sweed has played his last game in Black and Gold.

NFL Bargain Shopping

March 8, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With most of the top free agents signed here is the look at the best values available at each position.

Quarterback:  Troy Smith Restricted Free Agent (5th round):  Smith might be a restricted free agent, but I’d be willing to bet the Ravens would negotiate a price lower than a 5th round pick. Even if you did have to pay a 5th rounder for him, it isn’t that steep of a price. Smith is young, offers exceptional leadership and work ethic. He was a winner in college and has been on a winning team in the pros, so I don’t think anyone can question his desire. Smith is also extremely athletic and quick, which will buy him time to make plays out of the pocket and with his feet. He’s not an ideal option for a long term starter, but would be a good stopgap for a team bringing in a rookie quarterback. A three year contract, would allow the rookie time to develop. Smith’s speed and athleticism will allow him to have a specialty role once the rookie becomes a starter.

Running back:  Thomas Jones UFA:  Jones has been the Jets work horse these past couple of seasons, and despite entering his 30′s he has still racking up 1,000 yard seasons. Jones gained over 1,400 yards last year at 4.2 yards per carry. Though he can probably no longer shoulder the load on his own, he could still be good for 250-275 carries the next 2-3 years. He is the best option for a starting running back on the open market by far, now that Chester Taylor has been signed.

Wide Receiver:  Antonio Bryant UFA:  Bryant is a mixed bag, in terms of talent he can be elite, but his work ethic and mental aspect of the game leave a lot to be desired. I would try to limit the guaranteed money as much as possible for this season, that way you can cut him next year if he doesn’t pan out. I’d also try to have as much incentives as possible in the deal to get him to continuously work hard. That being said, with all the big name receivers being restricted free agents and not a very top heavy draft class, Bryant is your best bet at wide receiver. He can stretch the field and at the same time has the size to exploit corner backs.

Tight End:  Alge Crumpler UFA:  Crumpler used to be one of the elite tight ends in the league, and while the time of him being a primary option has passed him by, he can still be an effective part of the offense. He can’t stretch the field any more, but is still a valuable pass catcher in short yardage/red zone situations. Crumpler is also still an excellent blocker which makes him the ideal number 2 tight end for most teams.

Offensive Tackle:  Mike Gandy UFA:  Gandy has been a solid left tackle in the league for a number of years. I might be time for him to move to the other side of the line, but he’s still a quality starter in this league. He should still have another 3-4 years left in the tank, and has overall an limited injury history.

Offensive Guard:  Bobbie Williams UFA:  Williams is getting up there in age, and the skills have diminished somewhat, but he is still the top guard on the open market. Williams is still an elite run blocker that can eat up any defender in his way. Williams is ideally suited for power blocking teams, limiting the number of interested parties.

Center:  Kevin Mawae UFA:  Mawae is not the center he once was, but he is still a quality starting lineman in the NFL. He brings veteran leadership and work ethic to whatever team signs him. He could probably still give another 2 years of starting caliber play to a team.

Defensive End:  Derrick Burgess UFA:  Burgess is a hybrid DE/OLB but could fit on just about any team. He can a very good pass rusher, though consistency has been an issue. He’s more ideally suited to be on a team with one or two ‘elite’ defenders that will take the attention of the better lineman and double team’s. If Burgess can work one-on-one against the right tackle he will win most of those battles. Though known primarily as a pass rusher, he’s pretty solid in run support as well.

Defensive Tackle:  Cory Redding UFA:  Redding was a huge bust in Seattle, which will bring his price down and make him a major diamond in the rough. He was considered a top DE/DT in Detroit just two years ago, and should be one of the best low risk/high reward options on the market. He might be best suited for a 3-4 DE role, but he can do some damage as a defensive tackle as well. Redding is a good defender, but he isn’t strong enough or quick enough to beat interior double teams.

Outside Linebacker:  Keith Bulluck UFA:  Bulluck has been one of the best linebackers in the league for the past 8 years, but age and injury will depress his value this offseason. Age alone isn’t that big of an issue, since he should still be effective for another 3-4 years. The real problem is Bulluck is coming off an ACL injury in December and he won’t be ready in time for training camp. Though it will be hard to know what type of player he will be when he comes back, Bulluck is worth the risk for some team.

Inside Linebacker:  Larry Foote UFA:  Foote’s best season’s were in the Steelers 3-4 alignment and while he showed he can handle being the man in the middle of a 4-3 last season he wasn’t nearly as effective (part of that could be he was playing in Detroit). He’s not an elite starter, but he’s developed into a pretty good one. He’s a sure tackler that is pretty good in coverage as well.

Corner back: Phillip Buchanon UFA:  Buchanon isn’t as good of a corner as Leigh Bodden, but he will come at a fraction of the cost. He had a solid year in Detroit last season despite the Lions not getting any sort of pressure on the quarterback. He shouldn’t be a team’s number one corner, but he’s a good 2nd or 3rd corner for most teams in the league.

Safety:  O.J. Atogwe RFA (first refusal):  The Rams made a risky decision to allow Atogwe to be a restricted free agent without compensation. Now St. Louis could still keep him by agreeing to sign him for whatever contract another team negotiates, but there are plenty of ways around that. Atogwe is one of the better free safeties in the league, a true ball hawk. He gets somewhat overlooked because he’s been on an awful Rams team his whole career. His price tag will be down somewhat because he’s coming off a bad shoulder injury, but there is no reason to think it will affect him long term.

Madness Set To Begin

March 7, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With the college basketball season regular season over and the conference tournaments starting up bubbles will burst and team’s seeds will rise and fall. Right now Syracuse (despite yesterday’s loss), Kansas, Kentucky and Duke seem poised for number 1 seeds. Don’t count out WVU or Villanova if one of them win the Big East Tournament or if Ohio State or Purdue win the Big Ten and Duke loses the ACC. Also If Kentucky were to lose in the first round of the SEC Tournament the could also be vulnerable.

Two other teams to watch out for are Pittsburgh and Maryland. Maryland just beat Duke and has a share of the ACC Title, it they can win the ACC Tournament as well, knocking off Duke again they will move their way up into a 3 seed and with a little luck possibly even a 2 seed. The Terps aren’t the most talented team, but they play with a lot of heart and Gary Williams gets the most out of his players. Pittsburgh wasn’t even on the Tournament radar when the season started. They were picked in the preseason to finish 9th in the Big East (likely out of the NCAA’s), but despite losing all their top players from last season and the low ranking the Panthers came out and finished 2nd in the conference. Now the Panthers are looking like a solid 3 seed, if they advance to the finals of the Big East Tournament they should move up to a 2 seed. If the Panthers win the Big East Tournament, and in doing so beat Syracuse and West Virginia (again) it would be tough to say they don’t deserve a number 1 seed (though its a huge long shot). Pitt does its best work in the Big East Tournament and it would not be a surprise to see them do it again this year.

So what other teams are likely to make big moves with success in their conference tournaments? And who are some teams that deserve top 4 seeds and ones that don’t?

Saturday Basketball Previews:

March 6, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Guest Blogger Geoff Newolet:

Villanova will edge West Virginia in a battle for second in the Big East

No. 9 Villanova is hosting No. 8 West Virginia in a Big East match up that will determine who earns second place in the regular season Big East title race. More importantly, the winner will potentially earn the two-seed in the Big East tournament – depending on Pittsburgh’s results and the tiebreakers. Villanova has already defeated West Virginia this year by the score of 82-75.

Villanova started the season on a tear. They won 20 of their first 21 games, and they were ranked as high as second nationally. As of late, they have lost three of seven – all to Big East opponents. Villanova also only has two strong victories over ranked opponents at home against Georgetown and West Virginia. They also have quality wins over Maryland, Dayton and a slew of solid Big East teams.

West Virginia is coming off a huge home victory over Georgetown, which propelled them to contention for second in the Big East. The Mountaineers are 23-6 on the year, and five of their six losses came against Big East opponents. Their other loss came against a top-five Purdue team. The mountaineers are led by forwards Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks. Each of the three averages over 12 points and 6 rebounds, and they have caused match up problems all year for their opponents.

The Wildcats are led by senior Scottie Reynolds who averages nearly 19 points per game. Corey Fisher also chips in at 13 point per contest, and he rounds out one of the best backcourts in the Big East. Beyond those two players, only one other averages in double figures for the Wildcats, which creates an unbalanced attack. Villanova is certainly a top-20 team in the nation, but it seems that they are not quite a top-five team, and their past ranking of second nationally came prematurely.

Villanova has already defeated West Virginia on the road this year, and they will edge them again at home. It will be a close came, though, that could end up going either way. Final score: Villanova 76 West Virginia 72

Duke will pummel North Carolina to stay atop the ACC

The troubled North Carolina Tar Heels will renew their rivalry with the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke is looking to finish undefeated at home for the season, whereas North Carolina is looking for their sixth conference win of the season. No. 4 Duke is 25-5 on the year, and they are tied for the ACC lead at 12-3. North Carolina is in the midst of one of their worst seasons in decades, and will most likely be thrilled when the season finally ends.

Duke is coming off their first loss in nine games against ACC rival Maryland. Maryland is now tied with Duke for first place in the ACC, which will give Duke even more incentive to defeat the Tar Heels. It is hard to imagine Duke losing to an inferior North Carolina team with the ACC title on the line. This certainly will not be a uninspired, unmotivated performance by the Blue Devils.

North Carolina has absolutely nothing to play for aside from bragging rights over their conference rivals. The Tar Heels are 16-14, and they have no chance of making the NCAA tournament. They will potentially receive an invitation to one of the various lesser, irrelevant tournaments such as the NIT or the CBI, but being in one of those tournaments is just as much of a disappointment for the Tar Heels as not making a tournament at all.

North Carolina, though, is slightly headed in the right direction with two straight conference wins over Wake Forest and Miami. It would be quite an accomplishment for them to finish their miserable season with a three-game ACC win streak topped by a road win against the Blue Devils.

Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, that most likely will not happen, as Duke will be too much for them with the combination of their superior guards: Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler. Not to mention, North Carolina will be without arguably their best player – Ed Davis. Duke will handle North Carolina with ease in order to keep pace for the ACC title. Final Score: Duke 80 UNC 60

Free Agency Period Begins

March 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Typically when the NFL Free Agency period begins (aka one of the top 5 days of the year), there is a mad dash for the top talent available, and at least one big name will have already inked their name on a new contract. This year was a bit different, in the opening hours of free agency we’ve seen only one noteable player change teams, WR Nate Burleson who is now heading to the Lions. Even still there have been some interesting developments that deserve a mention from the last 24 hours.

Lions Sign Burleson:  Burleson was one of the top unrestricted free agent wide receivers available, but that doesn’t exactly mean he is worth $25 million over 5 years. Burleson has had just one productive season in the last 5 (and one semi-productive season as well), and has dealt with some serious injuries. What’s even more interesting is Burleson was widely considered a free agent ‘bust’ in Seattle, yet somehow can still get $25 million out of the Lions. Sure Burleson is an ‘upgrade’ to the Lions receiving corps, but who isn’t? Burleson isn’t a true number 2 and now the Lions owe quite a bit of money to Dennis Northcutt, Bryant Johnson and Burleson to not take any pressure off number one wideout Calvin Johnson. The Lions probably could have spent half of that to sign someone like Chris Chambers or Antwan Randle El, either one would have offered just as much chance of being a ‘solid’ number 2 without the high price tag or the injury history.

Jets Trade for Cromartie:  Antonio Cromartie was considered one of the league’s top corners just two seasons ago. Since then there have been some issues about work ethic and teams have found some holes in his game. I would expect Cromartie to get back to elite status this season for a number of reasons. First off, AC couldn’t be in a better situation. Now he will play opposite from the best corner back in the league in Darrelle Revis, Cromartie will no longer be forced to shadow other teams’ top wide receivers. The Jets aggressive defense should also allow Cromartie to take advantage of a couple of mistakes this season, and if anyone can get Cromartie to play to his full potential it is Rex Ryan. In addition to being in a great situation, Cromartie will be a free agent after next season, giving him plenty of incentive to get back to All-Pro form. For the young and talented Cromartie, the Jets only had to give up a conditional 2011 3rd round pick. Now the pick can move up to a 2nd round pick based on benchmarks hit by Cromartie and the Jets, but if so that will mean its a late 2nd rounder. To get a player of Cromartie’s caliber for just a late future 2nd round pick is a huge steal for New York. If Mark Sanchez can begin to start playing up to his ‘franchise quarterback’ label, the Jets should be one of the AFC favorites next season.

Redskins Revamp Roster, Potentially Not Big Players In The Market:  The Washington Redskins cut ties with 10 players yesterday and resigned two as free agency began. Notable among the cuts we back-up quarterback Todd Collins, WR Antwan Randle El, OG Randy Thomas, RBs Rock Cartwright and Ladell Betts, CB Fred Smoot, and DT Cornelius Griffin. Outside of Griffin, none of those cuts could be considered much of a surprise. Thomas and Betts have been injured far to often, Smoot and Randle El were way too pricey for their production, and Cartwright and Collins were luxury items who weren’t gonna cut it in the new Redskins system under Shannahan. Griffin though has been a good player for the Skins, but given his age and the likely switch to the 3-4, he was expendable.

The Redskins did resign their top unrestricted free agent Center Casey Rabach to a three-year deal. Rabach is starting to show is age, but its not a blockbuster deal by any means. Also there wasn’t much of an upgrade in way of free agency this season, and not a particularly strong draft class for centers, leaving the Skins with few options. Washington also resigned “Mr. Do Everything” Lorenzo Alexander. Alexander, who has seen time on special teams, jumbo formations, at defensive end, and defensive tackle will now also work as a rush linebacker in the 3-4. His athleticism, work ethic and versatility make him a valuable player for the Redskins and a solid investment for 3 years.

Despite the flurry of moves yesterday the biggest news coming out of Redskins Park might be the rumor that the Redskins won’t be going after any of the top name free agents. This rumor flies in the face of not only what everyone expects in Washington, but what we have heard so far this offseason, with the Redskins attached to every big name free agent. Now I applaud some fiscal responsibility, the list of cuts and the 4-12 record show what happens when you don’t use your money wisely, but it also worries me. If it is true that would take them out of the running for the top two free agents, Julius Peppers (who I like but don’t love for the Skins) and Karlos Dansby (who I absolutely love and think is a tremendous player) and puts them in the market for 2nd tier free agents. Now you can find some excellent values in the 2nd tier of the market, but I’m worried about the first name the Skins are linked to.

Offensive tackle Chad Clifton will be visiting Redskins Park today, and likely could end up leaving wearing Burgundy and Gold. Clifton might be the top unrestricted tackle on the market, and the Redskins do have a serious need there. But there should be a number of red flags for Redskin fans (and of course the team themselves). The first being Clifton’s age, he will be 34 next season and the last couple early 30′s offensive linemen the Redskins have relied on have not turned out too well. John Jansen, Randy Thomas, and Chris Samuels all saw their career’s collapse quickly do to injury and age, going back into that well is not the solution to the Redskins offensive lineman woes. Clifton already has had some injury issues and it is hard to believe that he could be effective for any contract longer than 2 years. Also, should we really be outbidding the Packers for Chad Clifton? The Packers were one of the few teams that had an offensive line worse than the Redskins last season, and while Clifton might have been the only good player on that offensive line, doesn’t he mean more to them then he would to us? Can we really say that paying Clifton more than the Packers is fiscal responsibility? The Packers are a playoff caliber team, that has a greater need for a quality tackle to help them get back to the postseason. Also, unlike the Redskins, they pick in the mid 20′s in the draft and won’t be able to get one of the top offensive tackles to replace him. The biggest red flag for Redskins fans, is what this will mean for the rest of their offseason, particularly the draft.

The Redskins will now almost assuredly draft their ‘franchise’ quarterback with the 4th overall pick, ignoring the needs at offensive tackle or trading back for additional draft picks to fill multiple positions. Rookie quarterback (if they play at all) aren’t successful their first season with very few exceptions, and only a handful more become successes in year two. It really isn’t until the third or fourth year until you will know whether a quarterback will make it or not in this league, especially when we are talking about a rebuilding team like the Redskins. So basically the Redskins will ignore the chance to fill multiple holes with the value of their 4th overall pick, and draft a player who won’t help them succeed these next two seasons, which will be the only two years that you can feel confident in your blindside protection.

The Campbell Conundrum

March 4, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Washington Redskins made a significant move yesterday when they were tagging their restricted free agents, when they placed a first round tender offer on Jason Campbell. All along you knew that Campbell was going to get tagged and would be a restricted free agent come Saturday, what was significant is the level they ‘tagged’ him at.

Teams have the option of extending a tender offer for the original round the player was drafted in, a 3rd round offer, a 2nd round offer, a 1st round offer or a 1st and a 3rd round offer. As the compensation increases, the money in the contract offer sheet is higher. The way restricted free agency works is a player is allowed to talk with any other team and negotiate a contract, then after they agree to terms, their original team has one week to decide between three options. First, they can sign the player to the contract that the other team negotiated, meaning if that player was to get a check for $15 million in year one, they have to pay that and have no recourse to change it. Their 2nd option is to simply let the player go and get what ever draft pick back in return. The third option is a bit tricky, but practical, and that is to ‘trade’ the rights of the player. Sometimes the team signing a player would rather give up multiple picks, in later rounds then one high draft pick, or they might not even have a pick in the round they are supposed to send to the original team, so they work out a trade.

So the Redskins decided to forego tagging Campbell at the highest possible tender level (1st and 3rd round), and as we know that decision didn’t have anything to do with money. Despite all the talk coming out of Redskins Park lately that Campbell will most likely ‘be with the team’ next year, yesterday’s tender offer makes me think that’s not the case (as it should be). If the Skins were so adamant with keeping Campbell, they first off wouldn’t even let him hit free agency. Secondly, if they did let him reach the market they would have extended the 1st and 3rd round offer, pretty much ensuring that Campbell remains in DC next year if they want him. The first and third round offer, would have pretty much meant the only way Campbell would leave is if another team trades for him. Now I think its much more likely that JC is taking his game to another team next year.

I would say a trade is a more likely scenario since most of the teams in need of quarterbacks pick early and won’t want to give up a top pick. The Rams, Seahawks (also pick 14), Browns and Bills could all potentially be interested in a new quarterback. The Raiders and Jaguars are also lesser possibilities, the Jags could use an upgrade over Garrard whom they seem unhappy with, and the Raiders could use Campbell’s big arm to throw to all those speedy receivers. Other teams that could use a quarterback upgrade include the 49ers (13th and 17th), Cardinals (26th) and the Vikings (30th). Now I don’t think any team would give up a top 15 pick for Campbell, so that eliminates everyone but the Cardinals and Vikings from signing Campbell outright (the 49ers 17th pick comes from Carolina meaning it would have to be a trade, since they would owe their pick if they signed him outright). Campbell would be a nice fit on a number of these teams.

Jason Campbell is far from an elite quarterback, but he’s hardly a bad one either, he’s put up good numbers and kept the Redskins competitive these last couple of seasons despite playing on a below average offense. Despite being 4-12 this year, the Skins were in pretty much every game this season with the exception of the Giants and Cowboys games. If the Redskins had an NFL offensive line, a consistent running game and at least a decent receiving corps (not to mention better play calling, and defensive backs who could do the ‘small things’ like tackle and intercept the ball), they would have at least doubled their win total. Despite all the problems around him, Campbell ended up having his best season as a Redskin, throwing for over 3,600 yards, 20 touchdowns (that’s impressive in Washington) and an 86.4 QB rating. Campbell also offers the ability to move around and scramble for some yardage when the pocket breaks down.

Now Jason Campbell is not without his detractors either. He’s not turned around a bad team like we’ve seen more elite quarterbacks do. And he seems to ‘zone in’ on particular receivers and force the ball to them (though that could be because Moss and Cooley were the only quality targets he had). Campbell has also grown skiddish behind the Redskins horrific offensive line, dumping the ball off the flat, instead of standing in there for another second to wait for something to open up down the field. Most of those issues could be fixed in Campbell with a better supporting cast and a coaching staff that believed in him. He might never win league MVP and might not head to too many Pro Bowls, but he definitely is a quality quarterback.

Now the question is…will another team be willing to trade for Campbell and will the Redskins be willing to accep? The answer to both questions should be yes, though when it comes to the Redskins I know they will always break my heart and do the wrong thing. Campbell is the best quarterback on the market this season, restricted or otherwise, and plenty of teams could use an upgrade behind center. The Rams sitting at the top of the draft have a major decision to be made that could be alleviated if they trade for Campbell. St. Louis is deciding between picking the player they want Suh or the player they need Bradford/Clausen. Suh is undeniably the best player in this draft, a disruptive force on defense, but he doesn’t fill the Rams biggest need of a top notch quarterback. Now there is a chance that Bradford/Clausen end up being a better quarterback than Campbell, but there is a much higher chance of them being a worse quarterback or even a bust. Additionally any rookie quarterback they draft will struggle their first year (if they play at all), Suh on the other hand will have an immediate impact and Campbell would be their starting QB. To me it is a no brainer for the Rams, they can address their quarterback issue immediately, and get the best player in the draft (this scenario could be played out the same way for any of the top 10 teams, though others might have to give a bit more in return). The question becomes would the Redskins be smart enough to take a 2nd rounder and say the Rams 5th rounder for Campbell?

Hopefully the answer to that question is a resounding YES. Campbell might not be the problem in DC, but he might not be the long term solution as well. No quarterback is going to lead the Redskins to the promised land with all the holes they have on their team (and that includes drafting one with the 4th overall pick). Washington needs to rebuild, and any additional draft picks help that cause. They can spend money to acquire some top talent on defense in free agency, but they can’t rebuild their offense, in particular their offensive line. That can only be accomplished in the draft, which is where the Redskins focus should be. As for the 2nd most scrutinized job in DC, the Redskins should look to add a veteran for a year, and draft a quarterback in the rounds 3-5 (though they will need to acquire a 3rd round pick) to develop. Even if that doesn’t work out its a better use of resources than drafting a quarterback early, behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Or signing Campbell long term when you can’t acquire the pieces to build around him.

NFL Scouting Combine Winners and Losers

March 3, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

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Losers:

Quarterbacks: With most of the top guys not throwing, it was not a good combine if your team needed a quarterback. Many of the 2nd and 3rd tier guys that did workout/throw, barely met expectations and some even failed to reach that bar.

Running backs: The running back class wasn’t as bad as the quarterback class, but it wasn’t an impressive showing for a group that can usually steal the show at the Combine. A few guys did impress, but for the most part a number of running backs maintained or hurt their stock with the workouts.

Ciron Black OT: Black came into this season figuring to be an early 2nd round pick, who could play his way into the first round. After his worst season, Black did nothing to help himself at the combine. Black measured out with shorter arms than most tackles and posted relatively poor 40 yard times and bench press reps. Black will likely need to kick inside to guard, and will fall into the 5th-7th round range.

Brandon LaFell WR: LaFell was one of the top receivers on the draft board heading into the combine, but likely fell a couple of spots due to average drills and a slow 40 time. LaFell might still be a solid NFL receiver, but he didn’t do anything to show he could one day be a number 1.

Jordan Shipley WR: Shipley had a lot of hype surrounding him entering the offseason. While no one thought he’d be a 1st or 2nd round talent, he seemed like a good bet to go in the 3rd round. He had a slow 40 time, and really struggled catching the ball in drills. He should slip into the 5th-6th round territory now.

Greg Hardy, Brandon Lang and George Selvie DE/OLB: At the beginning of this season all three of these guys looked like surefire Top 50 draft picks. As the season wore on though, they quickly fell down draft boards and needed impressive offseasons to boost their stock back up. All so far had seemingly started to move their way back up draft charts. Hardy especially was working his way back up after injuries derailed his career. Hardy had a pretty impressive East-West Shrine game week, and seemed in that 3rd-4th round range.

With a strong Combine he could work his way back into the 2nd round. Instead Hardy showed up overweight and had a slow 40 time, to go along with a meager bench press. He’s completely dropped the label of OLB due to his size, and is working on becoming just a 3-4 DE. There is still potential there so he might not fall too far, but he hurt his stock with this performance. Lang and Selvie are even worse cases as they didn’t weigh in nearly as much as Hardy yet couldn’t beat his 40 time. Lang could maybe transition to a 4-3 DE, and has some natural pass rush ability (though lacks the closing speed). Selvie on the other hand is in a lot of trouble. He isn’t big enough to hold up at the point of attack, and not athletic enough to convert to linebacker. He could fall all the way to the 7th round.

Winners:

Jevan Snead QB: Snead has been much maligned for his decision to come out this year after his poor season, but he was the best quarterback in the drills. Snead’s workouts were impressive in their own right and would have been a winner even if all the quarterbacks threw. While he will still likely not hear his name called until the mid-rounds, Snead will be a very good quarterback for some team down the road.

Ryan Mathews RB: Though there were a couple good running backs at the Combine, Mathews stood out in every drill. He has solidified himself to go off the board anywhere from 20-35. He could very well be the most complete back in this draft.

Golden Tate WR: Tate is the perfect example of how the draft process can get screwy and have guys slip through the cracks. At the beginning of the year Tate was a 3rd-4th round prospect. Then when Micheal Floyd went down with injury and he still impressed, he was in the 2nd-3rd round range. Then there seemed to be some hype of him in the late 1st round- early 2nd when he declared. After that, his draft hype fell some to the mid-to-late 2nd round range (despite no more games being played). The perception of him falling was reinforced when he measured at 5’10″, when most people were hoping he’d be closer to 6′. Of course all of that was before Tate took the field. When he did, he was the most impressive prospect out there among receivers. He blew away the combine and put himself back in the discussion for late 1st round.

Bruce Campbell OT: Campbell had an amazing Combine and solidified his status as a first round pick. Overall he is a raw player which will keep him from being the top tackle taken. Even still Campbell showed all the tools necessary to become an elite pass blocker at the next level.

Trent Williams OT: Williams was another offensive tackle who was a mixed bag. At times he looked dominate and flashed the tools needed to be a great OT. Williams, like Campbell, won’t be the first offensive lineman to hear his name called, but moved himself up on some draft boards. It wouldn’t surprise me to hear his name called in the Top 15 picks.

Brandon Graham DE/OLB: Graham has dealt with questions about his height and speed this entire draft process. While he had been inching up draft boards, a lot of people had some concerns with him. Graham answered the questions about his speed with an excellent 40 time, and as for his height it never seemed to stop him from getting to the QB in college.

Taylor Mays and Eric Berry S: Berry had a great combine and would have been the most impressive, if not for Mays ridiculous combine. Berry solidified himself as the top safety on the board and will fall no further than the Browns at the 7th pick. Mays is built and has the athleticism of the late Sean Taylor, but can’t match his natural ball-hawking abilities. Even still Mays’ Combine was incredible, and proved that he was worthy of a 1st round pick. Whoever drafts him might need to get creative to ensure he doesn’t get exposed in coverage, but they are getting one heck of a football player.