This year’s NCAA Tournament is three days old, yet it may not be hyperbole to say that this tournament may be one of the best we’ve ever seen. The parity and upsets this year have been quite impressive. As yesterday we saw three 1-3 seeds fall, including number 1 overall seed (and my tournament pick) Kansas fall to (9) Northern Iowa. Last year in the tournament, the story was the top teams won, and it was evidenced by the teams that were in the Sweet 16. Of those 16 teams last year, 14 of them were 1-4 seeds, including all 1-3 seeds making it (which was unprecedented). This year with just the first 8 spots filled we have five of the 5 seed or lower teams in the Sweet 16.

While the upsets are aplenty this year, none was bigger than yesterday’s Northern Iowa over Kansas game. While it killed probably half the people brackets (including my own) it was hard not to root for Northern Iowa to win yesterday. It might not truly be David beating Goliath, but its pretty close. No one gave Northern Iowa a chance to win that game yesterday, yet they controlled the game from start to finish. Northern Iowa wasn’t supposed to match up with Kansas, in terms or size, athleticism, or even talent, yet they are the ones heading to the Sweet 16.

The Panthers won by controlling the tempo of the game, as they used their fantastic defense to throw off the Jayhawks game plan and slow down the game. Northern Iowa isn’t great in any one area, and they don’t have that one dominate player like most top Mid-Major teams do. And while they definitely have some veteran players, I wouldn’t call them a true veteran team. Five of their top 10 rotation, including two starters, are freshmen or sophomores. While they are a good shooting team, they don’t create a lot of offense, with just three players in double figures, and no player averaging more than 12 points a game. They win because of their harassing defense, that consistently forces bad shots and turnovers. Yesterday they imposed their will on Kansas, and forced 15 turnovers to their 9. The Panthers also forced the Jayhawks to shoot below their average and completely took their 3-point game away forcing them to go 6-23 from behind the arc.

It’s a bit surprising that Kansas wasn’t able to break down the Panthers defense or figure out what Northern Iowa was doing offensively. Not only is Kansas a deep and fairly experienced team, but they have always been a very smart and talented team as well. Either this year or next Kansas will be sending Collins, Taylor, Henry and Aldrich to the NBA, yet none of these guys were able to succeed against Northern Iowa. Kansas’ guards were completely harassed on the perimeter and couldn’t ever find an open look. And when the Jayhawks did go inside, the Panthers contested every shot. The Jayhawks two point guards were affected the most Sherron Collins and Tyshawn Taylor were not able to do anything, they went a combined 4-21 from the field (all by Collins) and 0-11 from behind the arc. By taking them out of the game, Northern Iowa made it a one dimensional offense for Kansas and they weren’t able to handle it.

Northern Iowa wasn’t intimidated and showed a lot of heart, especially as Kansas mounted a comeback in the final couple of minutes. Most underdogs would have broken down at that point, but the Panthers kept on coming, and did what no one thought they could do, send Kansas packing.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

1. Washington Wizards

Coming into the season, the Washington Wizards had one of the highest payrolls in the NBA. They expected to compete for a top playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with their “big three” of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, and Caron Butler (and Brendan Haywood didn’t hurt either) finally healthy. Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld even went as far as to trade the Wizards’ top-five draft pick for veteran, “win-now” talent to supplement the already talented roster. Grunfeld traded the Wizards’ coveted pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye – two expiring contracts. In fairness, using Grunfeld’s logic, the Wizards felt that they could compete in the Eastern Conference, and their only weakness was at shooting guard.

Unfortunately, Grunfeld’s assessment of the roster he assembled was completely misguided. The team floundered at every point in the season. They could not solve their defensive deficiencies – which would be expected as Grunfeld’s roster contained maybe one player that was capable of being a good defender (Haywood). More importantly, many coaches and general managers across the NBA saw the flaws of the Wizards’ roster long before the season began, but Grunfeld and the rest of the Wizards organization continued to build around a team with very limited potential. It is important to note that Grunfeld has become a popular scapegoat over the last few months, but the organization as a whole is to blame. It is certainly not in his best interest to sell off second round draft picks. Why would Grunfeld care about the luxury tax? He’s certainly not the one that has to pay it.

In summary of the Wizards questionable decisions:

-Signing Arenas to a $111 Million dollar contract after having serious knee surgery (ignoring the fact that Arenas is not worth that money regardless of health)

-Ignoring for upwards of five seasons that the roster was incapable of playing defense

-Trading away a top-five NBA draft pick essentially for expiring contracts

-Selling multiple second round draft picks for cash

The Wizards have since blown up their roster. Jamison, Butler, Haywood and a few others have been shipped out for expiring contracts, draft picks and one prospect – Al Thornton. Even with the recent development of Andray Blatche, the Wizards have probably the worst roster in the NBA with little means of improving it other than lying in the NBA cellar for a few seasons until they can assemble a roster through top-five draft picks (that they don’t trade). Even with spending money this off season, they still won’t be able to lure a big-name free agent to such a poorly run organization that is undergoing a transition to new ownership.

2. Detroit Pistons

Joe Dumars has been vaunted for years as one of the top GMs in the NBA, and early in his tenure he had assembled one of the best rosters in basketball. In 2004, the Pistons won the NBA title, and it would seem difficult to argue against Dumars after he accomplished the ultimate goal.

But over the last few seasons, the decisions Dumars has made have been mystifying. Dumars famously drafted Darko Milicic in what was a can’t-miss 2003 draft (he passed over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Chris Kaman). In 2008, Chauncey Billups was traded for Allen Iverson – a deal meant to shake up a championship-contending team that had gone flat. It also gave Detroit financial flexibility with Iverson’s contract expiring. The Pistons immediately lost their competitiveness, whereas Billups’ new team, the Denver Nuggets, is still a championship contender today.

At some point over the last year, Dumars decided that point guard Rodney Stuckey was the franchise cornerstone, and that he was not to be moved under any circumstance. Stuckey has been maybe an above average NBA point guard. Consequently, Dumars felt that he needed to throw talent at Stuckey, so with the new cap space, the Pistons signed Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon to five-year contracts worth over $90 Million combined.

As expected, Dumars’ newly assembled roster has failed. He signed a streak shooter that requires volume in Gordon and a power forward that doesn’t play defense in Villanueva. They are 23-46 on the season, and their core players are all locked in for multiple seasons. Their best prospect is still Rodney Stuckey, and they seem destined for mediocrity for years to come.

3. Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers have been average at best for years now. They have failed to develop their talent. Thaddeus Young, Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams have all gone from prospects with huge potential to above average players at best.

The signing of Elton Brand has been a disaster, and he is easily one of the top-five most overpaid players in the NBA. He has three more years on his contract, and the 76ers as a whole will have a higher payroll next season. The 76ers are 24-45 thus far, and an increased payroll for a bottom feeder has to be a red flag.

It seems that the 76ers will be stuck in limbo just as the Detroit Pistons are. They aren’t quite terrible enough to land top-five lottery picks every season, and they are locked in with their sub-par roster for multiple years. Also, both the 76ers organization and its players have lost confidence in their head coach, Eddie Jordan.

4. LA Clippers

Donald Sterling and Mike Dunleavy Sr. had garnered a reputation as one of the worst owner and general manager/coach tandems in the league. Dunleavy was recently fired, and the Clippers are starting anew. Unfortunately, Sterling, a notoriously cheap owner, is still in charge, which likely means the Clippers organization will make little progress.

Strangely, the Clippers have assembled a roster with potential. Chris Kaman has become one of the better centers in the NBA, and Eric Gordon is a promising young shooting guard who was one of the best rookies in the NBA a year ago. Blake Griffin, the number one overall pick last summer, will not play this year, but assuming he can stay healthy, he will likely become a premium talent. Baron Davis is underperforming, which is not surprising.

The Clippers will also be in the running to sign a big-name free agent this summer. They have the money, and they might have the tools to lure someone. The problem still remains, and that is that the Clippers organization has failed to execute such plans so many times in the past. Good ownership could make this current team into a future contender, but history tells us that it won’t happen.

The Clippers have a long, long history of mistakes and disappointments, and even when thing don’t look terrible, it seems that it’s only a matter of time.

5. Charlotte Bobcats

This team will likely make its first playoff appearance in franchise history this season, which would seem like a huge step in the right direction, but this team is old. It would be one thing if they were in a situation similar to that of the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the Charlotte Bobcats are relying primarily on players that have reached or are passing their prime. Tyrus Thomas and DJ Augustin are the only young players on the roster, and they do not look to be stars in this league.

Charlotte is also in the same category as Detroit and Philadelphia – they are stuck in long-term contracts that equate to mediocrity at best. Raymond Felton will likely be gone next year, as the Bobcats will not have the money to resign him, and it is becoming more and more clear that Charlotte’s desperate attempt to only sign players that fit Larry Brown’s system was a huge mistake.

Michael Jordan is now in charge of the organization, which is also somewhat disturbing. Jordan’s stint in Washington was a failure, and his draft record and free agent signings were disappointments to say the least. This franchise will easily not see a top-four playoff spot for at least four-five years.

Honorable Mention:

New York Knicks: Isiah Thomas ran them to the ground, but their roster is about to be gutted. Next year will be an entirely new team.

Golden State Warriors: Any franchise that blindly buys into Don Nelson’s no defense approach because of one playoff series (Dallas ’07) is obviously short-sighted.

New Jersey Nets: They’re 7-61. Not to be too results-oriented, but that’s what this business is all about – results.

Wow if yesterday is any indication, this Tournament will live up to it’s nickname of “March Madness”. We saw seven upsets yesterday with lower seeds knocking off higher seeds including both a 4 and a 3 losing. We saw one of everyone’s favorite upset picks (UTEP), get killed by Butler. And perhaps the most exciting game was one of the first ones played, where 2 seed Villanova needed overtime to overcome 15 seed Robert Morris. Already we’ve seen a number of story lines forming and here are some of the first day impressions:

Bad Day For Big East Teams:  The Big East didn’t get off to a good start in this Tournament as three of their four teams playing yesterday were among those teams that got upset. What’s even worse is those were three of the four highest seeds to lose yesterday. Georgetown looked to be one of the strongest 3 seeds in this tournament. They were one basket away from winning the Big East Tournament, and had been ranked pretty much all year. They had big wins this year over some of the best teams in the country, including Pitt, Villanova, Syracuse and Duke. They looked like a balanced team with three top scorers, and a good inside-outside mixture. Well none of that mattered yesterday as 14 seed Ohio just dominated them. Ohio was in control for pretty much the majority of the game, and it was just a fantastic performance if you were rooting for an underdog. In addition to Georgetown losing, a pair of 6 seeds lost in the final seconds of the game as both Notre Dame and Marquette fell. Notre Dame lost to 11 seed Old Dominion in a close 51-50 battle. While the Irish kept the game close ODU really shut down Notre Dame’s offense particularly their three point shooting. Marquette on the other hand had little trouble shooting the 3, going 12-19 in the game. But it wasn’t enough to hold off 11 seed Washington. There were a number of times Marquette looked like they had the game in hand, only to see the Huskies battle back and win on a last second shot.

Villanova was the lone Big East team to win yesterday, and boy was it not pretty. Robert Morris led for a good portion of that game, and never showed any intimidation to their cross state foe. Even in overtime, their play was inspired, and they never gave up even when it looked as though the Wildcats were going to pull away. They kept it close and nearly sent the game into double overtime. For Villanova it was a pretty embarrassing game. This is a team that has Final Four or even Championship talent and pedigree but needed an extra 5 minutes to silence a 15 seed team. The Wildcats will need to figure out what went wrong and fast if they hope to get back on track this tournament.

High Seeds Struggle Early:  While both of yesterday’s 1 seeds cruised to victory, other top seeds did not. Villanova just squeaked by Robert Morris, and 3 seed New Mexico was taken down to the wire by Montana. Three seed Baylor didn’t pull away from Sam Houston State until about 2 minutes to play. Then of course we had the upsets. In addition to Georgetown losing big to Ohio, 4 seed Vanderbilt lost on a last second shot to 13 seed Murray State. Of the eight 1-4 seeds that played yesterday, two lost and three just barely advanced to the second round. This doesn’t bode too well if you believe that top seeds will dominate like they have the past few years.

Overtime and Last Second Shots Dominate Day One:  In all the games of last year’s tournament we saw a total of 15 overtime minutes, through the first 16 games of this year’s we saw 20. In addition to the overtime games we saw four games won by a shot in the final 5 seconds (including one of the overtime games). Another three games saw last second shots fall short that could have tied it and sent the game into overtime (2nd overtime for Robert Morris). One of the overtime teams that lost, Florida, had the final shot in both regulation and the first overtime, but couldn’t capitalize. All-in-all it was one of the most intense days in college basketball, with half the games going down to the wire.

Yesterday was proof for what this Tournament is all about. We saw some fantastic basketball being played, filled with great drama. This year’s tournament could ring with parity, as there didn’t seem to be much difference between a number of the seeds. Power conferences fell hard yesterday, showing why exactly we give automatic bids to the Mid-Majors and lower conferences. The best part about it all is the Madness has just begun, so sit back, relax and watch your brackets get destroyed.

1 Kentucky:  There is no doubt that the Wildcats have the most talented players in the nation. And if this tournament was solely decided by NBA future talent they would be a shoe-in for cutting down the nets in April. Fortunately for the rest of the teams in the country, this tournament is decided by a lot more than NBA talent. Even still Kentucky is one of the favorites of this tournament and have the talent, depth, and skill to win the title. The Wildcats are a very balanced team with star talent on the perimeter in John Wall and Eric Bledsoe, and underneath with Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins.

While it’s easy to love Kentucky, there are some hurdles they will have to overcome. Not the least of which is their freshman-centric starting lineup and rotation. We’ve seen a number of great freshmen and freshmen classes lead their teams deep into the tournament over the past few years, but the only freshman class to cut down the nets was Syracuse in 2003. That is not a great precedent for this Kentucky team, and something they will have to overcome. Something else they have to overcome is a pretty tough potential schedule. In the second round they will likely face a Texas team, that at one point in time was considered just as good of a team as Kentucky. And though they collapsed some down the stretch, the Longhorns have the talent to be extremely dangerous in this region. If Kentucky survives them, as they will likely face a dangerous Wisconsin team in the Sweet 16. That is almost as tough as a road that Kansas will face and, much tougher than Syracuse or Duke. Kentucky has the talent, but it will remain to be seen if their lack of experience will be their down fall.

2 West Virginia:  The West Virginia Mountaineers are my pick coming out of this region. They have tremendous talent, and athleticism and can run the floor with anybody. Though they lack a true big man, the Mountaineers have enough length to succeed in this tournament. They have one of the most underrated players in the nation in G-F De’Sean Butler. Butler was huge for West Virginia on their way to winning the Big East Conference Tournament.

WVU isn’t without weaknesses, they can be inconsistent and lack great depth, but have been able to overcome those issues this season. They do rely on their starters a bit to much and don’t do well if they get in foul trouble or overtime games. But few teams go deeper than 7 guys, so it hasn’t been a major issue for them. One thing that has haunted them this season is their consistency. They have struggled against the top teams in the Big East, and didn’t separate themselves from the pack. And while they did win the Big East Tournament, they didn’t have to face any of the other top teams (Pitt, Villanova, Syracuse). That being said, West Virginia could have made a solid case for deserving a number 1 seed, and even without facing some of the top teams winning the Big East Tournament is extremely impressive. I think the Mountaineers have a pretty clear path in the bottom part of this bracket, and have the ability to knock off Kentucky.

Rest of the games:

3 New Mexico over 14 Montana:  The Lobos are a talented team that might struggle early against Montana, but should be able to pull it out. I don’t see them going too far in this Tournament, but round 1 should be no problem.

4 Wisconsin over 13 Wofford:  The Badgers are a dangerous team and could end up busting a lot of brackets later in this tournament. As long as they don’t look ahead, Wisconsin should have no problem getting past Wofford.

12 Cornell over 5 Temple:  Temple not only drew the dreaded 5th seed, but also a tough match up against Cornell. Cornell has the ability to beat Temple inside, and if that is the case I don’t see Temple surviving this game.

6 Marquette over 11 Washington:  Marquette is a quality team with one weakness, size. Luckily for them Washington isn’t a great interior team, which should allow Marquette to get past them with their excellent guard play.

10 Missouri over 7 Clemson:  In the battle of the Tigers I’ll take Missouri by a hair over Clemson. Missouri has some consistency questions, but they create defensive headaches for every team they play. I think a team like Clemson who hasn’t really seen their style before will struggle and give up a number of turnovers.

8 Texas over 9 Wake Forest:  Both teams have a lot of talent but I like the Longhorns in this match up. I feel they are the more balanced team and will be more then the Demon Deacons can handle.

1 Duke:  There is obviously a lot to like when it comes to Duke. They are the third best team in the country, won the ACC Conference Tournament, and suffered just 5 losses this season. Furthermore Duke has a very veteran lineup with all 5 starters upperclassmen, including the three stars Jon Scheyer, Noland Smith and Kyle Singler. Scheyer, Smith and Singler are one of the best scoring trios in the nation, each averaging over 17 points a game. The Blue Devils luck out, because they are in the easiest overall region and don’t have anything standing in their way in the top half of the bracket. An Elite Eight appearance looks like a foregone conclusion for Duke.

That being said Duke is the weakest 1 seed, and has upset potential written all over them. They struggled away from the confines of Cameron Indoor Arena this year, as all 5 losses were on the road. While normally road losses are more acceptable in all sports, its troubling when you are talking about the NCAA Tournament, because all the games are going to be on neutral sites, taking away Duke’s best advantage. It was also troubling on how they lost on the road. Three of the five losses were by 7 points or more, including a 14 point loss to a really bad North Carolina State team. It is also worth noting that Duke barely squeaked by Miami and Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament on a neutral site, and neither one of those teams were top seeds (Miami actually was the 12th seed). In addition to not playing well away from home, there are serious questions about whether or not Duke can match up athletically with some of the teams out there. They lack the quickness to defend some of the other top teams. They will win their first game no problem, but despite being heavily favored don’t be surprised if they get knocked off earlier than projected.

2 Villanova:  The Wildcats looked like they were going to be a top seed earlier in the season, but really struggled in the 2nd half of their conference schedule. While Villanova might lack some signature wins, and be considered one of the weaker 2 seeds, don’t count them out just yet.  Their biggest weakness (Big East teams) are largely not an issue in the South Region as the only other foes are Louisville, in the top bracket, and Notre Dame who will have to get past Baylor to meet them in the Sweet 16. Notre Dame or Baylor could be a major stumbling block for Villanova, but I like their overall chances in this bracket. Yes, they lack the size to match up inside against most teams, but their guard play is perhaps the best in the nation. They have 6 guards that can score anytime they touch the ball. They can shoot and run the floor with the best of them. And that is what makes Villanova so great, they are quicker and faster than just about any other team and if they get out and run the game is over.

Great guard play is key in March, which gives Villanova a great advantage to go far in this region. While their inside game is lacking, they are still my favorite team from this region to advance to the Final Four.

Rest of the Games:

3 Baylor over Sam Houston State:  Baylor is a very balanced team and could be extremely dangerous in this tournament. They have size and outside shooters. At times they can play soft, but will have no trouble in round 1.

13 Siena over 4 Purdue:  You have got to feel for the Boilermakers, they were destined to be a number 1 seed until their top player Robbie Hummel went down with injury and their season went with it. While they still have some talent, I think Siena has a great chance to upset them. Siena is a pretty veteran team with a number of good scorers.

12 Utah State over 5 Texas A&M:  Utah State will get underrated but they are a dangerous 12 seed. They play good basketball for 40 minutes every game and have a number of solid scoring options. Texas A&M had some good wins down the stretch but they aren’t a great team. They lack the couple top options you look for in a team and are too similar to Utah State.

6 Notre Dame over 11 Old Dominion:  Notre Dame has completely changed their offense and it has worked miracles for them. They slow down the game to their pace and have a good combination of inside/outside scorers. They are a very veteran team, that I think can make a small run in the tournament.

7 Richmond over 10 Mount St. Mary’s:  Richmond is a very dangerous, dangerous team in this soft region. They could make a serious run if the stars align for them, and should fairly easily win their round 1 match up. Look for the Spiders to give Villanova all they can handle in the second round.

9 Louisville over 8 Washington:  This isn’t last year’s Louisville team that was a top seed, but they could be dangerous in this Tournament. They have some experience, and are very athletic and strong. In addition they are a very good shooting team, and have shown they can beat anyone, by knocking of Syracuse twice this season. Overall they’ve been really inconsistent, and don’t have a true star player to rely on like they have had in the past. I like them over Washington, and think given their strengths they could be a bracket buster and knock off Duke to make a run, but I’m not sold on them. They have the talent, but we don’t always see it on the floor.

1 Syracuse:  Despite being unranked to start the year, the Orangemen have been one of the top teams all season in college basketball. They had just four losses against them, which is pretty impressive considering the strength of the Big East. They did almost lose their number 1 seed due to their quarterfinals game in the Big East Tournament. Not only did they lose the game to the eventual runner up Georgetown, but their star center Arinze Onuaku went down with an injury. Syracuse won’t need Onuaku in the first couple rounds, but they will need him healthy by the Sweet 16 if they are to advance in the tournament. Syracuse will need to rely more heavily on their unproven bench until Onuaku gets healthy. Luckily, the Orangemen have plenty of other weapons to get them by. Forward Wes Johnson has been in the player of the year discussion all season. He led Syracuse in both scoring and rebounding, and was the number one option all season.

Syracuse dropping to the fourth number 1 seed, sent them packing out West, but in reality their first two games are in Buffalo making them pretty favorable. When they do head out West, Syracuse will try to stay focused but the road ahead of them isn’t an easy one. In the lower part of their bracket Pittsburgh (who was one of the 3 teams to beat them) looms large. They were the first team to knock off Syracuse this season and did so at the Carrier Dome. If they survive to the Elite Eight, Pitt is a dangerous team to play at a neutral site. The two biggest things to watch out for with Syracuse are their free throw shooting and turnover rate. Both of which are pretty low and could comeback to haunt them.

2 Kansas State:  Most teams use a 7-9 man rotation in college basketball, and only go deeper to the bench in blowout situations or serve foul/injury trouble. Kansas State literally plays their entire squad. Of their 13 players, no one played in fewer than 19 games, and no one averaged less than 6 minutes a game. That is unheard of in basketball today. Also, it’s not as though K-State was in some inferior conference that could rest their starters. They were runner up in the Big 12 conference, arguably the 2nd toughest conference in the nation. Their deep bench should be a benefit for a long run in the tournament. They can be more aggressive without worrying about foul trouble the way some teams do, as well as give some of their starters rest to keep them fresh for the next game. Keeping fresh legs in the game allows Kansas State to do what they do best, and that is run the floor. They like scoring in transition and before the defense gets set. In addition to their deep bench the Wildcats have an all upperclassman starting lineup. Their veteran leadership combined, with the young deep bench gives K-State a winning formula.

Kansas State should have no issue in round 1 against North Texas. The 2nd round presents a potential stumbling block against BYU, but the Wildcats depth should help them through. The Sweet 16 could get tricky for Kansas State if they face Pitt, as they don’t match up too well against the Panthers. While K-State can attack the rim some, they don’t control the paint. While they have more depth and experience than Pitt, they lack the defense to control the Panthers. If they do get by the Panthers, K-State’s lack of size will likely be their downfall at some point down the stretch.

Rest of the First round:

3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland:  Pitt is notorious to play down to opponents sometimes, and are also an inexperienced team so the potential for an upset exists. That being said, they have too much talent and are too well coached to lose this game. The Panthers have the talent to win this region if they play their best basketball, they just need to remain focused.

13 Murray St. over 4 Vanderbilt:  Vandy looked like a dangerous tournament team a month ago, as they were one of the top teams in the SEC, but they look like an early round upset here. Murray St. is a pretty veteran team, with quick guards that will give Vandy plenty of trouble.

12 UTEP over 5 Butler:  UTEP is a very underrated team. They have great guard play as well as one of the better big men in the country right now in Derrick Caracter. In addition to Caracter they have additional size that allows them to control the paint, and should match up well against Butler’s big men. Even if Butler wins the battle of the bigs, they don’t really have the guards to match up with UTEP. The one weakness for UTEP is their bench which is not very deep. Foul trouble could be devastating for them.

6 Xavier over 11 Minnesota:  Minnesota might have some fans because of what they did in the first couple rounds of the Big Ten tournament, but you need to remember they got beat by about 30 in the finals. Xavier is a pretty good team, that shouldn’t have much trouble with the Golden Gophers.

7 BYU over 10 Florida:  Florida somehow squeaked into the tournament, but I wouldn’t count on them being there too long. BYU should have little problem getting past the Gators in Round 1. I think Florida is pretty overrated and doesn’t have the talent level to compete in this game.

9 Florida State over 8 Gonzaga:  Gonzaga has been a tournament favorite for almost 10 years now, but I think they don’t make it out of the first round this year. This is a rebuilding year for them and I don’t think they can match up with FSU, particularly on the inside.

1 Kansas Jayhawks:

Kansas is the best team in the country and my pick to win the entire tournament. They have a good balance of veteran players like Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich (who also make up a great point guard-center combo) with young studs like Xavier Henry and Tyshawn Taylor. They can score from the inside and outside and do an excellent job on the defensive end. Kansas is also a very deep team, the Morris brothers give them size inside and Morningstar and Reed give them depth on the perimeter.

The Jawhawks have been close for a number of years now, but this could be the year they go all the way. They have a tough overall bracket to get through, but have the size and talent to do so. In an ironic twist, the Jayhawks lost only two games all season, and both of those teams (Tennessee and Oklahoma State) are somehow in their region. Kansas will have no trouble in Round 1 and easily knock off 16 Leigh.

2 Ohio State:

The Buckeyes have the best player in the nation in G-F Evan Turner, and he should lead them on good tournament run. Turner reminds me a lot of Dwyane Wade, and will need to carry Ohio State on his back like Wade did for Marquette in 2003. Ohio State has some good secondary pieces around Turner, in guards Buford, Lighty, and Diebler, but none of them can take over a game to take the pressure off Turner. If another team can find a way to slow down Turner, than Ohio State is in trouble. If Turner can be a weapon, then he sets up everyone else and makes them all better.

Ohio State’s biggest problem is their lack of size. While their guards have excellent size for guards they are all really guards, with ET being the lone exception. Turner can play just about anything, he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, and is the 2nd leading shot blocker. That lack of size and interior presence will present problems for Ohio State as the tournament progresses. Right now though they are an easy favorite over UC Santa Barbra.

Rest of the Match-ups:

3 Georgetown over 14 Ohio:  Georgetown lost some head scratchers this season, but also won some big games. Talent is never the Hoyas problem, staying in their game and playing consistent basketball is. Hoyas should have no problems knocking off Ohio and head into the 2nd round.

4 Maryland over 13 Houston:  Maryland might not have played in as dominate of a conference as the ACC has been in the past, but they were easily the 2nd best team and faced their share of high level competition. While the Terps lack the overall team to go deep into this tournament, they will win this game easily.

5 Michigan State over New Mexico State:  Usually the 5-12 match up is one where we see some upsets, but don’t look for it in this region. The Spartans were last year’s runner-up and have the experience and talent to do some damage in the first few rounds. Michigan State usually plays their best basketball come March, and I’d expect the same thing this year.

6 Tennessee over 11 San Diego State:  This game is an upset favorite for a lot of people out there, but I think Tennessee can win this game. It will be a tough match-up, but I like the Volunteers. Tennessee is a team that beat not only Kansas this year, but Kentucky as well, so you know they have the talent to play with anyone. I also don’t see Bruce Pearl losing in the first round of the Tournament, he’s too good of a coach and gets the most out of his players.

7 Oklahoma State over 10 Georgia Tech:  This is another game people are looking at for an upset, but I like the Cowboys over the Yellow Jackets in this one. Georgia Tech has some great talent on their roster, including a few guys who will be playing in the NBA next season, but they don’t play well enough as a team for me to give them the nod in this game. Tech is far too inconsistent and gives up way too many points from the perimeter. That 2nd issue will come back to haunt them in this game because OK State lives on the 3-point line. James Anderson is one of the most underrated players in the country and a fantastic scorer. He will give the Jackets more than they can handle and send the Cowboys into the 2nd round.

8 UNLV over 9 Northern Iowa:  Yes, that’s right, I don’t believe a single low seed will advance past the first round. UNLV isn’t a great team, but they have enough to hold off a fun Northern Iowa squad. I look for this game to be close, but UNLV to have too much size and strength for Northern Iowa to handle.

I know Kansas is the number one overall seed, but my question is does the selection committee know that? I ask because I feel the Jayhawks might have the toughest road to the Championship game of any 1 seed. Kansas should cruise in the first two rounds, but in the Sweet 16 they will face a likely match up against either (4) Maryland or (5) Michigan State. That is by far the toughest 4 or 5 match ups in any of the regions. Looking ahead further their Elite 8 match up will be likely against either Ohio State or Georgetown, which I think you can make a strong case being the best 2-3 seed combo in the regions as well. Probably the only advantage for Kansas is that the bottom of the bracket is probably the toughest you find, and it is quite possible that neither Ohio St. or Georgetown make it to the Elite 8. (6) Tennessee, (7) Oklahoma St., and (10) Georgia Tech all have the talent to make a serious run in the bottom of that bracket.

If Kansas has the hardest road, Duke by far has the easiest path to the Final Four. If they don’t make it to the Elite 8, Duke should just stop playing basketball because they don’t deserve to be in Division 1 if they can’t succeed in the cakewalk of a region they have. First, they got placed in the South, where they should have a good bit of support. Secondly they having nothing in front of them for the first 3 rounds. In the 2nd round they will face either (8) California or (9) Louisville. Cal doesn’t have any impressive wins this season, they lost to top teams, and beat the teams they were supposed to. While they did win the Pac-10 regular season, the Conference was extremely down this year, giving little credence to the belief they can be a threat to Duke. Louisville was able to stay somewhat competitive in the ultra-tough Big East, but with the exception of their two wins against Syracuse, they weren’t able to beat any team that was better than them. They did take a number of teams down to the wire, but weren’t able to close out games. Unfortunately for them they lack the upper-level talent to beat Duke. On paper Duke should have a tough Sweet 16 match up with (4) Purdue (seriously Texas A&M does not impress me as a 5 seed, I think they are completely overrated), but Purdue is really hurting with the loss of star Robbie Hummel. I’m guessing they don’t make it to the Sweet 16 without him, and it wouldn’t shock me if (12) Utah State is Duke’s opponent in the Sweet 16.

Luckily there is some real talent in the bottom of the region, so Duke doesn’t have a coronation into the Final Four. Either (2) Villanova or (3) Baylor should be able to overcome the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight if they make it that far. Both are better all-around teams that should give Duke plenty of problems. Even if there is an upset and one of the lower seeds come out of the bottom of that region, Duke will have a solid opponent. I think (11) Old Dominion, (7) Richmond, and (6) Notre Dame could make a serious run in the region. Overall though Duke really lucked out with their region, they should be well rested by the time they make the Elite Eight, which could be a major advantage.

All-in-all the tournament looks exciting with a number of great match-ups. My one gripe is the omission of Mississippi State. Now I realize you can’t judge a team solely by their Conference Tournament performance, but I think Mississippi State was very deserving of a bid. This team was one-tenth of a second away from earning an automatic bid, and instead has to settle for a 1 seed in the NIT. They took the best team in the nation down to the wire, on a “neutral” court (I think Kentucky fans out numbered Bulldog fans 20-1). And on the way to facing Kentucky, they knocked off Vanderbilt (a ranked team and a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament), and Florida (a bubble team that they should have taken the place of). Now I know they had some bad losses on their schedule, but the Bulldogs can play, and its hard for me to see a team like Florida or Minnesota make it over them. Minnesota seemingly made it because of their tournament run where they knocked off Michigan State and Purdue. But the difference is Purdue was without their best player, and in the Championship game Minnesota lost by almost 30 points against Ohio State. While Ohio State is the 5th or 6th best team in the country they aren’t as good as Kentucky, whom Mississippi State came so close to beating.

What are your thoughts–who was snubbed and who is overranked?

WVU Hangs On: The West Virginia Mountaineers were the last team standing in the Big East, after a brutal championship game against Georgetown. WVU won 60-58, on a last second shot by Da’Sean Butler, his second game winning shot of the Tournament. Even with the double bye, the Mountaineers victory is pretty impressive. Surviving in the Big East is no easy task, as WVU was the only one of the top 4 seeds (double bye teams) to get out of the quarterfinals. In addition the Mountaineers won all of their games by three points or less, and the game was decided on the final possession.

Purdue Triples Its Point Total From The First Half And Still Loses: With 5 minutes remaining in the first half the Boilermakers had just 4 points on the scoreboard. They managed to notch 11 by halftime, and almost tripled that total in the 2nd half to finish with 42. Not surprisingly Purdue, ranked fifth in the country, lost the game 69-42. The Boilermakers not only lost the game and the chance to win the Big Ten title, but they lost any chance at being a number 1 seed and probably won’t even be a number 2 after that performance. The injury to Robbie Hummel really came back to bite Purdue yesterday, as they looked like a shell of themselves. Unfortunately the NCAA selection committee will probably place a lot of stock into that game. Minnesota is a solid team but they weren’t in the tournament before yesterday’s win (and they still might end up just missing the cut). Not only should Purdue not have lost to them in the first place, but they should not have been beaten like that.

Kentucky Cruises To The Finals: The Kentucky Wildcats crushed the Tennessee Volunteers yesterday 74-45, on their way to earn a berth in the SEC Finals against Mississippi State. Kentucky’s freshman class got the job done yesterday as John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and DeMarcus Cousins all scored double figures, and had great all around games. Despite the fact that the Volunteers previously beat the Wildcats this season, this wasn’t even a game yesterday. Cousins controlled the paint yesterday, and the game was over. He led the Wildcats with 15 boards, and could not be stopped by the Tennessee big men. Overall UK out rebounded the Volunteers by 14, and that was one of the biggest differences in the game.

Kansas Wins Their 6th Straight Title: The Jayhawks knocked off their cross state rival Wildcats to win their 6th straight Big 12 title. Though Kansas State was in game and kept it close, Kansas controlled the game from start to finish. By winning the Big 12 Title, Kansas all but assured themselves the number 1 overall seed in the entire NCAA Tournament, making their road to the Championship game a little easier.

By Fanspeak contributing writer Geoff Nelowet

With the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers dominating nearly every media outlet, and with the words “Kobe” and “LeBron” prefacing every NBA conversation, it’s time we take a look at the teams that aren’t leading the league right now, but almost certainly will be in the future. I’ve ranked the top five teams of the future based on three criteria: young talent, salary cap space, and projected draft status. Two of the five teams are currently NBA bottom feeders, but they have young talent, cap space, and ostensibly a top-five draft pick in this summer’s NBA draft.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 39-24 Payroll: 58.3 M (28^th in NBA) Draft Status: two non-lottery first round picks, OKC and Phoenix

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden make up easily the best young nucleus in the NBA. Durant is currently second in the NBA in scoring at almost 30 per game, and Westbrook is averaging nearly 17 points and 8 assists in just his second professional season. Jeff Green is having a bit of a down year, but he’s still putting up 14.5 points and over 6 boards a night, and rookie James Harden is averaging 10 points per game in limited minutes.

This team has already found success in the NBA, as they currently sit as the five seed in the rugged Western Conference playoff race. They will definitely be the proverbial “team nobody wants to face come playoff time” because they get better every week, and it’s only a matter of time before they become the NBA elite.

This team also holds the third-lowest payroll in the NBA, and with this summer expected to be the biggest free agency in decades, the Oklahoma City Thunder could land a low post player such as Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer. Even more optimistically, the Thunder could go after Chris Bosh. Regardless of what transpires this summer or the next, the Thunder are in line to sign a major low-post contributor that will almost definitely push them over the top.

2. Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 39-28 Payroll: 55.8 M (30^th) Draft Status: non-lottery selection

The Portland Trail Blazers looked like a team with an even brighter future a year ago, but with Greg Oden facing major injuries – and the fact that he simply has not become a dominant NBA center, the Trail Blazers bright future has slightly dimmed. Also many people had high hopes for foreigner Rudy Fernandez, and especially after the Olympics, but he has yet to amount to anything more than a solid backup wing player.

Despite these setbacks, the Trail Blazers are still a team fraught with good, young talent. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have become cornerstones for the franchise, and Roy looks to be one of the best young scorers in the NBA. Oden still has plenty of upside as long as he stays healthy, and Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum round out a very young and talented bench.

Portland also has the lowest payroll in the NBA, and premium talent is on its way. Portland of course, will be vying with nearly half the league to sign the big name free agents this summer, but even if they end up signing second or third tier players, they will still be a major force in the Western Conference for years to come.

3. Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 34-31 Payroll: 57.4 M (29^th) Draft Status: three first round picks, top-fifteen pick (Memphis), two non-lottery DEN and LAL

OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay have already made this team competitive, and they will only get better with time. Mayo averages 17.5 points per game in just his second NBA season, and Gasol has emerged as one of the best young centers in the league averaging nearly 15 points and 10 rebounds. Rudy Gay has been equally as good averaging 20 points and 5 boards.

Memphis’ young nucleus has been in the NBA for three seasons or less, and with solid young players such as Mike Conley and Sam Young contributing on a nightly basis, this looks to be one of the better teams in the NBA down the road. Memphis also has center Hasheem Thabeet, whom they drafted second overall last summer riding the bench. He is the prototypical “project” player, and he has spent time in the NBDL, which is generally a bad sign, but he still has the ability to be an excellent player. With three first round picks they can either package them to acquire a top lottery pick or use all three to have a top young bench.

Memphis holds the second-lowest payroll in the NBA. They have the ability to make a major splash in free agency, but it will be difficult for them to reel in big name free agents when they are competing with the New York Knicks or any other more enticing destination.

4. Golden State Warriors

Record: 17-47 Payroll: 65.9 M (21^st) Draft Status: top-five pick

This team may be a surprise on this list, but they will boast arguably the best backcourt in the NBA for years to come. Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry have become two of the best guard in the NBA, and they can both score and pass. Ellis is currently fifth in the NBA in scoring at 25.5 per game, and Stephen Curry, in his rookie season, has averaged over 20 points per game over the last two months.

The Warriors also have Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph – two very good young players – in their frontcourt. Biedrins has been battling injuries, and Randolph has been inconsistent at times, but both have the skills to be excellent starters, and they have demonstrated that on numerous occasions.

Golden State will likely not be a big spender this off season, but they are in line for a top-five draft pick, which means even more young talent. Of course, their pick could be a bust, but this draft is expected to be unusually deep. If the Warriors get lucky and earn a top-two pick, they could set themselves up for a very promising future.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 14-51 Payroll: 62.2 M (24^th) Draft Status: Up to three selections, top-five pick Minn., late-1st round (Utah), mid-round (Charlotte)*

The Timberwolves have one of the best young frontcourts in the NBA with Al Jefferson averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game, and Kevin Love contributing 15 points and 11 boards per night. Both players are under 25 years old, which is the most impressive part of their performances. Rookie Jonny Flynn has averaged nearly 14 points per game at point guard for the Timberwolves, and he completes their triumvirate of young talent. The Timberwolves also hold the rights to the top international player, Ricky Rubio, who can be used as a major trade chip down the road.

The Timberwolves also hold a minimal payroll, with most of their contracts coming off the books at the end of the season. As with every team, signing a big name free agent will be a highly competitive endeavor, and it is unlikely that someone such as LeBron James would ever consider signing with Minnesota, but looking ahead to future free agent classes, the T-Wolves could be a major player.

Most importantly, Minnesota is a lock for a top-five draft pick. They will be able to add a fourth elite young player to their already talented core group. They could also have an additional two first round picks that the Timberwolves could use to bolster their bench with young talent.This summer’s draft could push teams such as Minnesota and Golden State to immediate playoff contenders similar to the jump that Memphis made this past year.

*Charlotte’s pick is top 12 protected, right now they are just outside the top 12, but that could easily change.