by Steve Shoup
Top Five NBA Teams of the Future
March 13, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
By Fanspeak contributing writer Geoff Nelowet
With the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers dominating nearly every media outlet, and with the words “Kobe” and “LeBron” prefacing every NBA conversation, it’s time we take a look at the teams that aren’t leading the league right now, but almost certainly will be in the future. I’ve ranked the top five teams of the future based on three criteria: young talent, salary cap space, and projected draft status. Two of the five teams are currently NBA bottom feeders, but they have young talent, cap space, and ostensibly a top-five draft pick in this summer’s NBA draft.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 39-24 Payroll: 58.3 M (28th in NBA) Draft Status: two non-lottery first round picks, OKC and Phoenix
Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden make up easily the best young nucleus in the NBA. Durant is currently second in the NBA in scoring at almost 30 per game, and Westbrook is averaging nearly 17 points and 8 assists in just his second professional season. Jeff Green is having a bit of a down year, but he’s still putting up 14.5 points and over 6 boards a night, and rookie James Harden is averaging 10 points per game in limited minutes.
This team has already found success in the NBA, as they currently sit as the five seed in the rugged Western Conference playoff race. They will definitely be the proverbial “team nobody wants to face come playoff time” because they get better every week, and it’s only a matter of time before they become the NBA elite.
This team also holds the third-lowest payroll in the NBA, and with this summer expected to be the biggest free agency in decades, the Oklahoma City Thunder could land a low post player such as Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer. Even more optimistically, the Thunder could go after Chris Bosh. Regardless of what transpires this summer or the next, the Thunder are in line to sign a major low-post contributor that will almost definitely push them over the top.
2. Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 39-28 Payroll: 55.8 M (30th) Draft Status: non-lottery selection
The Portland Trail Blazers looked like a team with an even brighter future a year ago, but with Greg Oden facing major injuries – and the fact that he simply has not become a dominant NBA center, the Trail Blazers bright future has slightly dimmed. Also many people had high hopes for foreigner Rudy Fernandez, and especially after the Olympics, but he has yet to amount to anything more than a solid backup wing player.
Despite these setbacks, the Trail Blazers are still a team fraught with good, young talent. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have become cornerstones for the franchise, and Roy looks to be one of the best young scorers in the NBA. Oden still has plenty of upside as long as he stays healthy, and Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum round out a very young and talented bench.
Portland also has the lowest payroll in the NBA, and premium talent is on its way. Portland of course, will be vying with nearly half the league to sign the big name free agents this summer, but even if they end up signing second or third tier players, they will still be a major force in the Western Conference for years to come.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 34-31 Payroll: 57.4 M (29th) Draft Status: three first round picks, top-fifteen pick (Memphis), two non-lottery DEN and LAL
OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay have already made this team competitive, and they will only get better with time. Mayo averages 17.5 points per game in just his second NBA season, and Gasol has emerged as one of the best young centers in the league averaging nearly 15 points and 10 rebounds. Rudy Gay has been equally as good averaging 20 points and 5 boards.
Memphis’ young nucleus has been in the NBA for three seasons or less, and with solid young players such as Mike Conley and Sam Young contributing on a nightly basis, this looks to be one of the better teams in the NBA down the road. Memphis also has center Hasheem Thabeet, whom they drafted second overall last summer riding the bench. He is the prototypical “project” player, and he has spent time in the NBDL, which is generally a bad sign, but he still has the ability to be an excellent player. With three first round picks they can either package them to acquire a top lottery pick or use all three to have a top young bench.
Memphis holds the second-lowest payroll in the NBA. They have the ability to make a major splash in free agency, but it will be difficult for them to reel in big name free agents when they are competing with the New York Knicks or any other more enticing destination.
4. Golden State Warriors
Record: 17-47 Payroll: 65.9 M (21st) Draft Status: top-five pick
This team may be a surprise on this list, but they will boast arguably the best backcourt in the NBA for years to come. Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry have become two of the best guard in the NBA, and they can both score and pass. Ellis is currently fifth in the NBA in scoring at 25.5 per game, and Stephen Curry, in his rookie season, has averaged over 20 points per game over the last two months.
The Warriors also have Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph – two very good young players – in their frontcourt. Biedrins has been battling injuries, and Randolph has been inconsistent at times, but both have the skills to be excellent starters, and they have demonstrated that on numerous occasions.
Golden State will likely not be a big spender this off season, but they are in line for a top-five draft pick, which means even more young talent. Of course, their pick could be a bust, but this draft is expected to be unusually deep. If the Warriors get lucky and earn a top-two pick, they could set themselves up for a very promising future.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 14-51 Payroll: 62.2 M (24th) Draft Status: Up to three selections, top-five pick Minn., late-1st round (Utah), mid-round (Charlotte)*
The Timberwolves have one of the best young frontcourts in the NBA with Al Jefferson averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game, and Kevin Love contributing 15 points and 11 boards per night. Both players are under 25 years old, which is the most impressive part of their performances. Rookie Jonny Flynn has averaged nearly 14 points per game at point guard for the Timberwolves, and he completes their triumvirate of young talent. The Timberwolves also hold the rights to the top international player, Ricky Rubio, who can be used as a major trade chip down the road.
The Timberwolves also hold a minimal payroll, with most of their contracts coming off the books at the end of the season. As with every team, signing a big name free agent will be a highly competitive endeavor, and it is unlikely that someone such as LeBron James would ever consider signing with Minnesota, but looking ahead to future free agent classes, the T-Wolves could be a major player.
Most importantly, Minnesota is a lock for a top-five draft pick. They will be able to add a fourth elite young player to their already talented core group. They could also have an additional two first round picks that the Timberwolves could use to bolster their bench with young talent.This summer’s draft could push teams such as Minnesota and Golden State to immediate playoff contenders similar to the jump that Memphis made this past year.
*Charlotte’s pick is top 12 protected, right now they are just outside the top 12, but that could easily change.
I guess with each of these teams you probably want to discuss where their ceiling is. Because of where they’re located, all will have trouble landing your marquee free agents. Looking at their core group of players, only two of these teams look like future championship material: the Thunder and maybe Portland. Memphis will probably turn into what the Jazz have been the last couple of years: solid and commendable but not special. The Warriors have Ellis and Curry, but unless they land some stud in the low post they’ll have to part with one of them. I don’t think you can go deep in the postseason with your two starting guards being that undersized, now or in the future. After seeing you included the Warriors and the Wolves, I’m surprised you didn’t throw in the Kings and Pacers. Tyreke Evans looks to be pretty special, and the Pacers are a point guard away from being a legit force in the East. The Clips might have deserved some consideration also.
I would def. switch Minnesota and Golden State, since I’m not to sold on Ellis. I think his numbers are inflated due to the system and the lack of other scorers around him. I would actually add the Wolves into the category of a championship ceiling team. I really like Flynn and Love. Even if the do move Jefferson they can get a pretty good return for him. Also I’m a big believer in Rubio, either as a player or as trade bait I think he will really help Minnesota take it to the next level. I also think they can have a tremendous draft if they end up getting the Bobcats pick. Even if they miss out on Wall, grabbing Evan Turner could be huge for this team. Then with the Bobcats pick they could add another big man to help Love and Jefferson.
I do agree with the Utah comparison for Memphis. Gasol has taken his game up to the next level, but Mayo still hasn’t reached his full potential and Conley is so inconsistent. If those players really improve their game then I think they can be contenders, otherwise I think they will fight for the 7th or 8th spot in the West for the next few years. The good news for Memphis is they could really turn the corner in the next year or two (though they need to sign Rudy Gay long term). They are a playoff caliber team this season, basically without their two first round picks. Carroll has been ok off the bench, but Thabeet hasn’t really done anything to help this team. If they both even become good rotational players, Memphis has a bright future. Also, they have another 3 first round picks this year, if they play their cards right they could have an extremely deep, young and cheap team next season. I know most people say late 1st round picks have little value, but if you draft well you can find very good players.
I think the Pacers and Clippers should be next on the list. The Clippers can afford a max FA (if they open up their check book) and Davis and Kamen are two good veterans to go along with Gordon and Griffin. Not to mention they will have a pretty solid lottery pick to add to their team. As for the Pacers I love Granger and Hibbert, but until they know what Hansbourgh can bring to the table their is still a question mark there. If he can develop then they should be pretty solid with a lottery pick on the way. Unfortunately they won’t have cap space this year to fill that PG need. As for the Kings I agree Evans is a stud, and I love Landry and am really starting to like Cassipi. But i’m not sold on the rest of that team. Thompson, and Udrih are nice players but to me are more complimentary bench players than starters. To me the issue with the Kings is the lack of development of Hawes (who I really thought was gonna be a very good center in the NBA). Without a dominate big man I see trouble for the Kings.
I think for these lottery teams it will all rely on who they can get in the draft. If these teams can walk away with Wall, Cousins or Turner then I think they will be on the fast track (Cousins I’m a bit worried about). Outside of that I think it will likely be a very deep and talented draft class, but not one with immediate difference makers.