You are browsing the archive for 2010 February.

Spurs Fall to Kobeless Lakers

February 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The San Antonio Spurs have been one of the NBA’s power houses over the last 10+ years, but their star has really begun to fade this season. Last night they blew a perfect opportunity to pick up a game in the Western Conference, as the Lakers were without both Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum. Instead of picking up a game, the Spurs lost 101-89, falling to 29-21 for the season and tying them for 6th place in the Western Conference.

Last night was a disappointing loss as the Spurs came out of the gate on fire and had a 6 point lead at the end of the 1st quarter. While it went down hill from there, they were only down by 3 at halftime and just 5 points heading into the 4th quarter. The 4th quarter is where the Spurs should have won the game. They were the deeper team with the injuries to the Lakers stars, but instead played their worst basketball of the night. What was most disappointing was how the Spurs lost, allowing 5 Lakers in double figures and getting out rebounded. With no Kobe or Bynum the Spurs should have been able to defend the Lakers better, and there is no excuse to get out rebounded when the Lakers were without their only true center. Last night’s disappointing loss was another in a long line of tough losses to teams San Antonio should have beaten.

As shocking as it may be, it is quite possible that the Spurs could miss the playoffs this year. Portland, Houston, Memphis and New Orleans are all right there fighting for the ‘final’ playoff spot, but its just as likely that two of those teams get in and the Spurs end up watching the playoffs from home. There might be 30 games remaining in the season, but the Spurs haven’t shown they are better than any of these teams, and have struggled mightily against the top teams in the West. In fact the Spurs are just .500 (16-16) against the West, compared to 13-5 against the East.

Now I know people will say they are only 2.5 games out of first in their division, so its premature to write their eulogy, but if you look at the numbers the concern should be there. The Spurs are 19-10 at home but just 10-11 on the road. Of their remaining 32 games, 20 of them are on the road. Also of those remaining 32 games, only 12 of them are against the Eastern Conference. And it could be hard for the Spurs to maintain their dominance of the Eastern Conference, since 6 of those games are against the Cavs (2), Magic (2), Celtics, and Hawks (4 of which are away as well).

Overall I hope I’m wrong and the Spurs can defy the odds and make the playoffs (and do some damage when they are there) as I like the team and respect the way they play the game. But I think some changes need to be made, either through a trade or shaking up the lineup some, because right now this team can’t compete any longer with the top teams in the league.

Saints March To Their First Super Bowl Win

February 8, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The New Orleans Saints made a statement yesterday, with their 31-17 victory over the Colts in Super Bowl 44.  They are for real, and the new power house in the NFC. Drew Brees was pretty much perfect after the 1st quarter yesterday, and was well deserving of the MVP award. Though two other people should have been considered for the award, and that is head coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. They both coached a brilliant game yesterday and put the Saints in a position to win.

While the Saints offensive line had no trouble keeping Brees upright, Payton did a great job of ensuring Brees had plenty of short and dump off targets to keep the chains moving. Brees and Payton more or less neutralized the Colts pass rush by staying out of 3rd and long passing situations. And Payton had the call of the year, by onsiding the 2nd half kickoff. What made the call even bolder was the fact that the earlier bold call, of going for it on 4th and goal didn’t go his way. That onside kick changed the course of the game, not only was the Colts defense unprepared to stop Brees, but I think it finally allowed the Saints to believe they could win the game.

The other coach that deserves a lot of credit is Williams, whose defense was the first to beat Peyton Manning this season. While overall the Saints had a great game plan, and much will be made about the interception return, three drives in particular epitomized the Saints performance yesterday. The first was the Colts first drive of the game. Manning was moving the Colts down the field, and it looked like a given that they would be putting 7 points on the board. Instead the Saints defense tightened up and held them to a field goal. The next key drive of the game, was early in the 4th quarter after the Saints cut the Colts lead to 17-16, and Peyton Manning converted a 4th and 2 to the Saints 32. Again it seemed as though Peyton was about to score and make it an 8 point lead. At the very least, the Colts needed about 3-5 yards to attempt a fairly makable field goal, instead the Saints forced them to lose 3 yards and Indianapolis missed a 51-yard field goal (which also gave the Saints offense great field position). The last defensive drive of the game, really showed the Saints tenacity. Manning drove the Colts down to the Saints 13 with just under two minutes remaining and a pair of timeouts. Sure the Colts would have needed to score and get the onside kick, but it looked like the Colts were about to make it a one score game, yet they never found the endzone. All-in-all it was a tremendous performance by the Saints defense to bend, but not break to the Colts offense.

The real MVP of the game of course was the field general, Drew Brees. After the first quarter Brees went 29 of 32 and just left the Colts guessing. He did a fantastic job of executing Sean Payton’s game plan, and constantly kept the chains and the clock moving. Brees’ performance was even more impressive given the fact that the Saints running game completely disappeared last night, managing just 51 yards and 2.8 yards per carry. Despite being one dimensional, the Saints passing attack was incredibly effective. Hopefully with the Super Bowl win and MVP award, Brees will start being thought of among the elite quarterbacks in the league (in all honesty outside of Peyton, who can you say is better than Brees?). It shouldn’t be to much of a debate though since I don’t see the Saints going anywhere as long as Brees is behind center.

Super Bowl Preview

February 7, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

New Orleans Saints:

Why They Can Win:  The Saints had the league’s best offense this season, led by one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, Drew Brees. While Brees has his favorite targets in receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, he does a great job of distributing the ball to all his backs, receivers, and tight ends. Brees has one of the league’s top pass blocking offensive lines, giving him the time to get the ball downfield. Though the Saints o-line are top notch pass protectors their specialty is run blocking. The Saints had the 6th best rushing attack this season, which is impressive considering their passing attack and the lack of a true feature back. Instead of one workhorse, the Saints have a three-headed monster in the backfield with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush. The Saints defense isn’t nearly as good as their offensive counterparts, but they do have one major strength, turnovers. Be it luck or skill, the Saints are always around the ball forcing turnovers and creating points or scoring opportunities.

Why They Can’t Win: The Saints defense collapsed at the end of the season. First, they almost lost to both the Washington Redskins and Atlanta Falcons (without Matt Ryan), before losing their last three games against the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Panthers (The Carolina game was against many 2nd stringers). Major holes were exposed in pass coverage, and the Saints front seven couldn’t stop any rushing attacks. While its easy to point to their playoff wins against the Cardinals and Vikings and proclaim that those problems are behind them, that may be a bit premature. For one thing both of those games were at home, an advantage they won’t have tonight. Secondly, the Arizona game could easily be an aberration, since they injured Kurt Warner severely limiting the Cardinals ability to produce offensively. Lastly, the defense wasn’t the cause for beating the Vikings, as Minnesota handed them the game with their fumbling issues. Favre and Peterson torched the Saints defense that day (though Peterson coughed up the game later), and the Saints caught plenty of lucky breaks with questionable officiating calls (If they try to go low on Manning you can bet there will be a penalty). So basically for the last two months the only time the Saints were able to slow down an opposing offense is when they injured a quarterback (and that didn’t even work against Favre).

Indianapolis Colts:

Why They Can Win: While it seems simplistic to boil this game down to Peyton Manning vs the Saints defense, he really is the biggest difference maker on the field. Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and is in the prime of a Hall of Fame career, Manning is the best quarterback in the league, and is in the midst of becoming the best quarterback ever. There is no definitive way to stop him, or slow him down. Earlier this season in a game against the Miami Dolphins (a game which was held at Sunlife Stadium), the Dolphins held the ball for more than 45 minutes, yet Manning was able to throw for 300 yards and lead the Colts to 27 points. One of the long standing truths in football is if you have the ball for 3/4ths of the game you will win. In the Championship game against the Jets, New York blitzed Manning and took away his top two receivers, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Yet Manning was unfazed, throwing for over 370 yards and 3 touchdowns. Whats most impressive is that Manning is able to do what he does, despite not having a balanced attack. The Colts rushing game finished dead last in the league, even though they have two former 1st round picks in the backfield, and an offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the league. Now partly that is due to the fact the offensive line is fairly overrated. They might have allowed the fewest sacks, but much of that has to do with Manning himself. No quarterback is better at reading pre-snap blitzes, allowing him to change the play and/or tell the offensive line who to block. In addition Manning is one of best quarterbacks at feeling the pressure and getting the ball away. Now Manning doesn’t do it solely alone, he does have his share of weapons on offense. In addition to Wayne and Clark (who both had 100 catches this season), Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Joseph Addai all have a big role in the passing attack. It’s not nearly as diverse as the Saints, but effective nonetheless. The Colts defense sometimes is misaligned as not being very good, but that is a mistake to count them out. They are notorious for giving up big yards, but then clamping down in the Red Zone. While its not always pretty, they always come up big in major games or situations.

Why They Can’t Win: The Colts defense is good, but they are not without weaknesses. They usually do better against one-dimensional teams, something the Saints are not. Their rushing defense has had major holes this season, and could be something the Saints can exploit. The Colts pass defense relies on the pressure generated by their front four, which is problematic against the Saints top notch offensive line, and Drew Brees quick release. That problem is even more of an issue if DE Dwight Freeney’s ankle prevents him from being 100% today. The injuries to Freeney and Wayne are going to be key today. While both should play, they will need to be at the top of their game for the Colts to win.

Outcome: Both teams have plenty going for them, and weaknesses that can be their downfall. In the end I think the Colts win behind Manning. I don’t think the Saints can get to Peyton enough to disrupt the offense, and if they aren’t getting to him then that means receivers will be open. On the flip side I believe the Colts defense will do enough to slow down Brees and company enough to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. Colts win 34-23.

#8 Georgetown Looks to Avenge Loss to #2 Villanova

February 6, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

The Georgetown Hoyas are coming off one of their most uninspired and sloppy performances of the season in a 72-64 home loss to unranked upstart South Florida. The game before that, the Hoyas took down perennial superpower and then eighth-ranked Duke in a blowout home win. If the last two results for the Hoyas are any indicator, this team has the potential to knock off the best – as long as they play with intensity every time they are on the court. Otherwise, they fall back to the middle of the pack, and in the Big East, arguably the most competitive conference in the country, a team such as the Hoyas cannot afford to lose to anyone other than the conference elite.

And the conference elite is now in town, as Georgetown is facing a reversal of roles – they are now playing the underdog. Albeit a slight underdog, the Hoyas are facing second-ranked Villanova. ‘Nova is 20-1 on the season and 9-0 in the conference. They already defeated Georgetown on their own court three weeks prior. It was a game in which the Wildcats were in control for almost its entirety, led by fifteen at halftime and finished with a five-point victory. Georgetown, even at home, will have to put forth a much better effort to walk away with a win.

The Hoyas boast one of the best triads of players in the nation. Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe and Chris Wright each average nearly fifteen points per contest, and Monroe is one of the best rebounders in the conference at 9.7 per game. Jason Clark is the only other player averaging double figures at 10.5 point per.

Unlike the Hoyas’ balanced attack, much of the Wildcats’ offense flows through senior guard Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds, who nearly left last season for the NBA, is fifth in the conference in scoring at 18.5 points per game. ‘Nova, though, has five other players on the roster that average nine points or more. Reynolds may control a high volume of shots, but the Wildcats do not lack in depth or talent, and their 20-1 record reflects that.

Georgetown was frustrated against USF, and they will undoubtedly play with more effort and determination. The Hoyas are also looking to avenge a loss, and at home, this looks like an opportune time for Georgetown to pull the upset. This will be no easy task, though, as Villanova is one of the premier teams in the nation – they will not go down without a fight. Final score: Georgetown 88 Villanova 84

Trade Center: NHL Devils Acquire Kovalchuk

February 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deal:  The New Jersey Devils acquire LW Ilya Kovalchuk and D Anssi Salmela for RW Niclas Bergfors, D Johnny Oduya, Forward Patrice Cormier, and a 1st round draft pick.

Why it makes sense for the Thrashers:  Atlanta was between a rock and a hard place here and made the best deal possible. Kovalchuk was going to be the top free agent on the market this upcoming season and was going to leave the Thrashers. While its hard for Atlanta to give up their superstar and most marketable player, they couldn’t just let him walk away in free agency for nothing. Bergfors is only 22 and has shown some promise this season. He may never be a star winger but could be a solid top-two line starter. Oduya is a pretty good defensiveman, and at 28 still has his best hockey in front of him. Cormier was one of the Devils top prospects, and should be the key to this deal for the Thrashers if he develops the way they hope. The deal could even be better for Atlanta if they can use the money they save from Kovalchuk to bring in a couple of good free agents in the offseason.

Why it makes sense for the Devils: The New Jersey Devils are 2nd in the Eastern Conference right now, despite the fact that they rank 5th worst in the league in goals scored. Kovalchuk gives them the elite scorer they need to win the Stanley Cup this year. The acquisition of Kovalchuk makes the Devils a legitimate contender to the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals. Before acquiring Kovalchuk no one wanted to play the Devils for one game due to the presence of Martin Brodeur in net, but didn’t mind a playoff series as much because the Devils didn’t have the offense to balance out Brodeur. The thought being that you could outlast Brodeur over the length of the series. But now with a scoring threat, the Devils are a team that’s dangerous in a playoff series. While the Devils gave up some young talent to acquire Kovalchuk, they didn’t give up anything major that will come back to haunt them.

Winner: Both sides filled their biggest needs with this deal; for the Devils a top notch scorer, and for the Thrashers acquiring some NHL and future talent for their rental player. Even if the Devils come up short this postseason I think this will be a good deal for them, by exciting the fan base and giving them a chance to win it all.

Thoughts On Signing Day

February 4, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

How good is Florida’s class?:

The Florida Gators may have lost the SEC and National Championship to their rival Alabama, but they won yesterday on National Signing day, inking the best class of any school (Texas is close though). The best part about this class is how they built it, with an intense focus on defense including the top 6 players in their class. The Gators have set themselves up to have one of the best defensive units ever on the gridiron. They covered every position on defense and now have tremendous depth in their secondary. On offense the Gators focused on their their offensive line, running backs and receivers. UF also added a couple of athletes, who could develop into spread quarterbacks or switch to another position. Overall from top to bottom the Gators had the best class, not only in terms of top end talent, but also depth and positional need.

How good is the rest of the SEC?:

ESPN and Rivals both rated the SEC with having 8 top 25 classes (Scout only had 7), by far the best of any conference. All three publications have at least 4 teams ranked in the top 10, with ESPN and Rivals each adding Tennessee to the top 10 as well. Even the teams that didn’t make the top 25 rankings had great recruiting days yesterday, and had they been in other conferences, their classes would be considered among the top 4 or 5 in the league. From the top to the bottom the SEC were the big winners yesterday.

Is USC’s class a bit overrated?:

ESPN has the Trojans 7th overall, with Scout having them 5th and Rivals placing them as the top recruiting class in the country. As a side note, USC has a verbal commitment from Seantrel Henderson the top ranked OT in the nation, but he won’t sign until after the NCAA investigation of past recruiting issues, so if the NCAA comes down on the Trojans, they could lose one of their top recruits. Outside of Henderson, the Trojans had a good, albeit small class.

Of their 18 signed recruits, 14 were 4 or 5 star recruits according to ESPN.  While that is impressive, of that group of talent they added 3 wide receivers and 3 tight ends among that group. Having a third of your class as pass catchers is dangerous. While they should almost certainly find some good starters from that group, they spent too many scholarships on a group that is notorious for failed prospects. Yes, other schools like Florida, Alabama and others added just as many pass catchers, but with 8-12 additional scholarships they were able to address other needs as well. The minimal focus on defense and the offensive line (which are other positions that are in need of new starters) could come back to haunt the Trojans down the line. In fairness they were in on some players, but just couldn’t close on them. With the way the Trojans class went (even with Henderson) I don’t know if they are deserving of anything in the top 15 much less the top 10, given their lack of depth, positional value and filling of need.

The Nets Hit Rock Bottom

February 3, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

For a team that has been as bad as the Nets this season, its hard to believe that they could have finally reached a new low, but I guess when you (don’t) try hard enough anything is possible. The Nets could very well end up with the worst record in NBA history, and if they reach that ‘milestone’ it will be due to their play this last week. Last Wednesday the Nets managed their 4th win of the season, beating the Clippers 103-87, and had three games remaining on their homestand. Those three games were against the three other worst teams in the Eastern Conference, the Wizards, 76ers, and Pistons. At home the Nets should have been able to win at least one of those games, if not more, but instead they got swept by the bottom of the East.

To make matters even worse (if possible), basketball guru and Nets assistant coach Del Harris is leaving the team. The loss of Harris doesn’t exactly bode well for the Nets win total to reach double digits this season. Whether he was forced to resign or couldn’t take being part of such a bad team, it is a fairly ominous sign for New Jersey.

The saddest part about this team is they are not without talent. Brook Lopez is emerging as one of the better young centers in the game, and should be the building block for the Nets. Power forward Yi Jianlian, has made some strides this season to realize his immense potential (though he still disappears far too often). Point guard Devin Harris would be capable of starting for many teams in the NBA. In addition, the Nets have some intriguing 2nd year players like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee, who should become solid role players. The real problem is that the Nets young players like Lopez, Jianlian, Douglas-Roberts, Lee and first round pick Terrance Williams should all be developing given the amount of playing time is available on the rebuilding Nets. But only Lopez is really establishing himself. Now not all of these players are going to be stars or even significant contributors, but they should all be producing more than they are.

Now the Nets and their fans (the few that are left), can hope and pray for winning the John Wall lottery (which could then make Devin Harris quality trade bait), but I wouldn’t count on it. Yes they will have the best odds of any one team 25%, (though someone should tell the Nets they could win a few more games and still have the same odds), but the other 13 lottery teams have a combined 75% chance of winning the lottery. Given the way this year has turned out for the Nets, I think the odds are against the Nets for getting Wall, and really with 30+ games remaining maybe the Nets should focus on this season rather than next year’s draft.

Mock NBA Draft: First Look

February 2, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Since the top 14 picks are determined by a Lottery system, the NBA Draft is hard to mock. Nonetheless we will give it a try, and use the current standings to determine draft order.

1. New Jersey Nets- PG John Wall, Kentucky. Wall is the top player in the nation, and will be the top pick regardless of who wins the lottery (except maybe if the Hornets win it). He is the type of player that you can build a team around and should jump start the Nets rebuilding effort.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves- G-SF Evan Turner, Ohio State. Turner is in the mix for the 2nd overall pick and would be a great fit for the Timberwolves who already have their point guard and two big men. He is a very complete player and give the T-wolves one of the top young lineups in the league. Wesley Johnson could also be a fit here, and I wouldn’t count out a big man if the Love-Jefferson rumored issues have any truth behind them.

3. Golden State Warriors-SF Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forrest. Aminu is a slight reach here but has the perfect run and gun style for the Warriors. Wesley Johnson might be a slighty better prospect, but Aminu seems to be a better fit for Golden State (a center prospect like Cousins could fit as well).

4. Detroit Pistons-PF Ed Davis, UNC. Davis might be an unlikely choice at first glance, but he does the the things well that the Pistons need the most, rebounding and shot blocking. His offensive game is still raw, but the Pistons have scorers. What they don’t have is an inside presence, which Davis will give them. They could also look at Cousins or Favors given their potential but overall Davis is a better fit.

5.  Indiana Pacers- PF Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech. Pacers could be getting a steal here with Favors, who has immense talent and potential, but still hasn’t been able to harness it completely. Favors would be a good fit in Indiana since he could be slotted between Granger and Hibbert, which could allow him to really develop into a star.

6. Washington Wizards- PF-C DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky. The Wizards could pretty much use two of each, and could legitimately go in any direction, particularly with a more refined player like Johnson, but in the end Cousins should be the pick here. With Jamison and Haywood likely to be traded the Wizards will need major help in the front court. And while they do need help everywhere, the two hardest positions to fill in the NBA are PG and Center. Cousins has the potential to become a dominate inside presence, and given his game could develop into one of the most complete big men in the league. Cousins has his share of question marks, but his upside might be second only to Wall in this class.

7. Philadelphia 76ers- SF Wesley Johnson, Syracuse. Johnson is probably the most refined prospect in this draft class, but will likely fall because he doesn’t have the upside of some of the younger players. The 76ers could potentially look at a big man, but I don’t see them passing up Johnson if he is there.

8. Sacramento Kings- C Cole Aldrich, Kansas. The Kings would be ecstatic if Aldrich fell to them. They desperately need another quality big man, and one that can play Center is an added bonus. Aldrich isn’t a complete player or a dominate center, but his size will get him drafted midway through the lottery. He would be a big boost to the Kings front court (though they’d probably prefer a stronger rebounder).

9. Utah Jazz (Knicks pick)- PF Patrick Patterson, Kentucky. The Jazz know one thing for sure about this offseason, Carlos Boozer will be wearing a different jersey next season and will need to be replaced. Patterson offers some nice upside, and has been impressive with fitting in with a new coach and a ton of freshman at Kentucky. At times he gets lost in the shuffle, but he’s a solid option to replace Boozer for the Jazz.

10. Los Angeles Clippers- PF-C Larry Sanders, VCU. Sanders is flying up draft boards with his development this season, he’s incredibly long and athletic and shows tremendous work ethic. With no top SF’s available and Marcus Camby done in LA, Sanders would be a great addition to the Clippers. Since he can play both PF and Center (when he fills out) he could back-up both positions and get 20 minutes a game to start out.

11. Milwaukee Bucks- SG Xavier Henry, Kansas. Henry is falling some, but would be a nice pick for a team like the Bucks, a team with a good young point guard and a solid center. Henry needs to refine his game especially with going to the basket, but he’s a sniper from the wing. A Henry and Jennings back court could bring the Bucks back to respectability.

12. Houston Rockets- PF Donatas Motiejunas, Euroleague. Rockets could go in any number of directions next season depending on what happens with Tracey McGrady. While a big man might not be their primary target I think they will nab Motiejunas here, given his athletic ability and upside.

13. New Orleans Hornets- C Solomon Alabi, Florida State. The Hornets could use another big man to go along with West and Okafor, names like Greg Monroe and Epke Udoh could fit here as well, but a true center prospect might be too hard for the Hornets to pass up.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder- PF-C Hassan Whiteside, Marshall. The Thunder need a big man to go along with all their scorers so Monroe and Udoh could fit here as well. Whiteside is probably the best fit here since he is already a quality defensive big man, who will help clear the glass in Oklahoma City. Given the Thunder’s quality scorers, offensive ability isn’t as much of a priority in their big man.

15. Miami Heat-SF Stanley Robinson, UCONN

16. Chicago Bulls-G Willie Warren, Oklahoma

17. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Charlotte)- PF-C Ekpe Udoh, Baylor

18. Miami Heat (from Toronto)- PF-C Greg Monroe, Georgetown

19. Memphis Grizzlies- SF Elias Harris, Gonzaga

20. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Phoenix)- G Avery Bradley, Texas

21. Portland Trail Blazers- C Jan Vesley, Euro League

22. San Antonio Spurs- SG James Anderson, OK State

23. Minnesota Tiberwolves (from Utah)- PF Craig Brackins, Iowa St.

24. New Jersey Nets (from Dallas)- SF Devin Eubanks, WVU

25. Boston Celtics- SG Terrico White, Ole Miss

26. Atlanta Hawks- PF Jarvis Varnado, Miss. St.

27. Orlando Magic-SG Dominque Jones, South Florida

28. Memphis Grizzlies (from Denver)- PF Tevor Booker, Clemson

29. Memphis Grizzlies (From LA Lakers)-SF Damion James, Texas

30. Cleveland Cavaliers- PF Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech

Hornets Stung By Injury Bug

February 1, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The news for the New Orleans Hornets couldn’t get much worse. Superstar point guard Chris Paul will now miss at least a month due to arthroscopic knee surgery. And the timing couldn’t be any worse for New Orleans, as they had been playing good basketball in the New Year and were in a fight for the 8th and final playoff spot (and could have potentially been higher). Now with their top scorer out for at least a month, the Hornets playoff hopes are offically dashed.

The silver lining of this injury, is that it will give the Hornets time to evaluate their first round draft pick PG Darren Collison. Collison, who was a surprise first round pick given the lack of need by the Hornets, has been okay so far this season, and has flashed the ability to be a starting caliber point guard. If he can show that with regular work he can be a starting point guard in the NBA, then not only will the Hornets be competitive in Paul’s absence, but they will have a valuable trade chip for the off-season (plenty of teams that miss out on the John Wall lottery will be interested). Even if Collison picks his game up, it is tough to see the Hornets surviving in the playoff picture without Paul, which could mean its decision time for the Hornets.

Do they stick it out this season and hope they can survive for that final playoff spot, or do they make a trade or two to reshape the roster for next season? I think the Hornets should go with the latter option, despite not having many assets to trade. Collison is untouchable until the offseason, and Marcus Thornton has established himself as a pretty solid option for the 2 guard and won’t be going anywhere. That leaves David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Emeka Okafor as their real tradeable assets. West should probably be kept, he’s an all-star and signed for a fairly reasonable deal. I don’t see their being a huge market for Stojakovic, since there are plenty of wing players available in trade market/next year’s free agent class, so I would keep him. Okafor on the other hand, could be an interesting trade chip. Some people don’t like his contract, but the money per year isn’t too bad (about $11 million), its the length that is a problem (4 more years after this one). While I know it’s always tough to swallow long contracts in the NBA, given Okafor’s age and production, I think its a pretty fair deal and won’t be a hinderence to move for the Hornets. Now it will probably be hard to get equivalent value back in a midseason deal (especially since the Hornets will need at least one big man back in the deal), but could get creative if they package Okafor with a bad contract (Peterson or Posey). It might hurt their overall return, but they could get a couple young guys with potential and maybe an expiring contract or two. It might mean the Hornets are ‘punting’ on this season, but even before Paul’s injury, this wasn’t a team built to survive the Western Conference. It may be tough for them and their fans to accept, but reshaping the roster is the right move for the future of the franchise.