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Keeping Up With The Kiffins

January 13, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Overall I think USC made a great move by bringing in Lane Kiffin as their next head coach (especially since its a package deal with his dad). It just completely shocks me that this move was made under the radar. Of all the names that had been mentioned by USC (or rumored), Kiffin’s name never came up. While I think the Trojans might have had some bigger targets earlier, I think they ended up getting the right man for the job.

Now I know Lane Kiffin can come off a bit arrogant and had some rule violations early on at Tennessee. Which was a bit surprising since he was the recruiting coordinator at USC under Carroll, but that could be chalked up to the brainwashing he received in Oakland by Al Davis. But I think this is the right move since it gives you credibility on offense (Lane’s specialty) and defense (which is his dad’s area of expertise). This should stop the exodus of recruits that had been reopening their recruitment to USC and the current players who were transferring/entering the draft. Another advantage with bringing in Kiffin is his age (34). If he finds success and stays at USC (which could be a big ‘if’) he’s young enough to create a college dynasty there. He could coach there for the next 30 years and give the Trojans the stability they need.

It is a bit surprising that Kiffin is leaving the Volunteers after one season, especially given the state of the SEC right now. Yes the Pac-10 is gaining in prominence (though they had a pretty bad bowl season), the SEC is still the best conference in college football. And right now there is an opening to potentially bring Tennessee back to prominence in the SEC. Florida is in a state of transition right now, and Alabama is losing some of their top defensive players. Ole Miss and Georgia will have brand new starting QB’s and have lost a lot of talent over the past few seasons. LSU could be rebuilding as well. Only Arkansas and Auburn really seemed like teams on the rise in the SEC (though you never fully count anyone out), and Tennessee seemed like one or two years away from being one of the top programs again in their conference. USC on the other hand, is on the way down, as the rest of the Pac-10 rises (which could be why Carroll finally left). Cal and UCLA always can build pretty good teams, and the resurgence of Washington, Oregon State and Stanford makes the Pac-10 a very deep conference. As good as all those teams are, they are all second fiddle to the Oregon Ducks, who are the team to beat out west right now. Kiffin might have the money and prestige of USC to work with, but he will have his work cut out for him in the Pac-10.

The real winner of this deal might not be the football program at USC, but rather the players. Despite Pete Carroll and all his great assistants at USC, the Trojans have done a pretty bad job of developing their recruits into players. Now I know that sounds like sacrilege, since USC is widely considered the “NFL team in Los Angeles” and their record has been so good. But I’m not taking away their accomplishments on the college football field (though I’m quelling the myth that they could compete in the NFL), I’m just commenting on the lack of development of their prospects. Now there are a few notable exceptions, Carson Palmer and Troy Polamalu early on, and Clay Mathews Jr. and Brian Cushing this past season. But all in all, USC players have been major disappointments when it comes to the NFL. Running backs who can’t read blocks, receivers who can’t run routes and defensive players who are just completely lost. I think that will all change with the addition of the Kiffins. Monte Kiffin will bring with him an NFL style defense, and Lane I think will do a better job at developing his recruits into players.

Wizards Without Arenas? What Should They Do?

January 12, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Now that the NBA has suspended Washington Bullets Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas (really how ironic that this situation happens to a team who changed its name from ‘Bullets’ to get away from the idea of gun violence in Washington?) for the season, the team has to figure out what its next step is. The Wizards are in a tough spot because the loss of Agent Zero completely changes their plans for this season and the future. Originally it looked as though the only decision in Washington was whether or not they should trade one or two of their other star players for expiring contracts to use in the banner 2010 free agent class next summer. The idea made some sense, go with Arenas, who ever you pick up in the trades, and the young guys the rest of the way. If you make the playoffs great, if not you are in perfect position to grab one of the big stars to play alongside Arenas and add one or two other free agents. Now those plans are dashed, and the team is left with a major decision about what do they do now. While things look dire in Washington, I think if the Wizards are smart they can make the most out of this situation and come out ahead.

The good thing with the suspension of Arenas is, it should help give them precedent to void the remainder of his contract. Now I realize that there are reports that the Wizards won’t be able to void the contract, but I don’t see that as the case. First off, Arenas will be charged with multiply felonies, by both State and Federal authorities. Secondly, Arenas has fully admitted what he has done, so it will be hard for him to take back his statements now. Finally, the league has deemed that his actions (which also broke league rules) are punishable by suspension for at least the rest of the season. Those factors combined, in addition to the violate nature of his actions, lack of remorse, and negative public opinion, all spell doom for Arenas’ efforts to fight the legal case and the termination of his contract. With Arenas’ contract voided, the Wizards will have plenty of additional money to play with next season.

Now the Wizards options seem to be either keeping Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler and using the Arenas money to lure a top FA, or blowing up the team entirely and signing a couple of big name free agents. The big problem with the first idea is that Jamison and Butler’s best positions (PF and SF) just so happen to be the positions of most of the free agent talent. You could move players around and have Butler play the 2 or Jamison the 3, but you would still be without a true point guard or center on your roster. I think that lack of a PG or C will keep the cream of the crop from considering the Wizards. I think their second option (blowing the team up) is the better way to go.

Now conventional wisdom would say to blow the team up, and acquire a few young players/draft picks but mainly to acquire expiring contracts for Jamison and Butler, to further invest in next years free agent pool. I mean can you imagine signing Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, then adding Raymond Felton to play point guard? No I can’t, because there is no chance of that happening. It doesn’t matter whether the Wizards have $5 million to spend or $50 million to spend, they aren’t going to get one much less two of the top free agents. They don’t have the nucleus to offer to the top tier guys. I’m sure they can spend their money on the Drew Gooden’s, and Hakim Warrick’s of the league (which aren’t necessarily bad signings as long as they don’t overpay) but unless there are some big surprises I don’t think they can compete with they big market/playoff caliber teams that have money to spend.

This is where I think the Wizards should get radical, instead of going crazy to clear cap space for next season, they should focus their trades in acquiring young talented (cheap) players and multiple draft picks (2010 is looking like a much better draft class) and even be willing to take on salary for next season. I know this concept of foregoing the 2010 market is sacrilege in NBA circles.  But the Wizards are in prime position to be a serious mover and shaker at the deadline in February (hopefully they start sooner) not counting Arenas’ voided contract. They have over $30 million in expiring contracts to move (and about half of that is for two players who have some legitimate value Mike Miller and Brendan Haywood). In addition, they have two star players they can move (Jamison and Butler) that don’t have prohibitive contracts, and a couple of young pieces that could be enticing for clubs. And is there a playoff team that wouldn’t want Earl Boykins coming off the bench during the stretch drive (his minimum contract could be added to just about any deal)? Since the Wizards will find themselves on the outside looking in in this year’s market, they should look to use their expiring contracts as an advantage get more additional young players/draft picks and focus on having cap room in 2011. Now the 2011 class isn’t as good as this year’s, but the Wizards would be one of the few teams able to make a big signing 2011, so they could actually get the creme of the crop (potentially two big names depending on how much money they free up), and in the process they can build a young talented core that can set them up to compete in 2011.

Here are a couple of trades I’d explore if I was the Wizards, all of these trades worked in ESPN’s Trade Machine but could need some subtle tweaks with money/draft picks.

Trade 1: Wizards trade Antwan Jamison to the OKC Thunder for Jeff Green, Nick Collison, Eric Maynor and a 1st round pick.

Why this works for the Wizards:  Green is signed through next season and is a restricted free agent after that. He would be a perfect player for the Wizards to extend and build around, he can fit in either the 3 or the 4 and is a home town guy for Wizard fans to root for. Maynor is another local guy, and has a lot of upside, though probably a year or two away from really showing it. Collison isn’t anything special but his deal is up after next season, and can give them solid minutes at either the 4 or the 5.

Why this works for the Thunder:  OKC needs another star to go along with Durant and Westbrooke. They aren’t going to be a big player in free agency so they should look to add their PF through a trade. While they are giving up some talent, it isn’t anything they could live without. For a team that is a surprising contender this season, the Thunder should make a run at it and Jamison could be the piece that they need.

Trade 2: Wizards trade Caron Butler to the Phoenix Suns for Lenardo Barbosa, Earl Clark and a first round draft pick* (this might need to be a future first rounder and not next season’s)

Why this works for the Wizards:  Barbosa is a solid role player and could be a decent starting shooting guard for the Wizards the next year and a half, and give them cap room in 2011. Clark has struggled so far this season but he is a player with a ton of potential and should be a good trade chip/starter in the future.

Why this works for Phoenix:  The Suns weren’t supposed to be a contender this year, but they are in the middle of the pack out West. Their one weakness is their small forward play, adding Butler would give them a top-notch starting five.

Trade 3: Wizards Trade Brendan Haywood to the Trail Blazers for Steve Blake and Juwan Howard and a first round pick* (this is another one that could be a future first rounder)

Why this works for the Wizards:  This deal would give them two former Wizards, in addition to another first round pick. The too veterans could offer much needed respect and leadership (as well as being fan favorites) to the young Wizards. They are also both free agents after this season, maintaining some cap room for Washington.

Why this works for Portland:  Injuries along their front court have set back the Trail Blazers playoff hopes. Center is the one position where Portland could use a major upgrade for the postseason. At the same time they won’t be giving up any significant contributors, while keeping their cap room for next year.

Trade 4 (This i’m borrowing an idea from Bill Simmons about the Knicks): The Wizards trade the expiring contracts of Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson for Jordan Hill and Jared Jeffries (plus some cash).

Why this trade works for the Wizards:  While the Wizards would be conceding some Cap space next season, they get a young upside PF in Hill and a solid contributor in Jeffries. Jeffries is another player whose contract is up after next season, while Hill is a nice project big man. That is a decent return considering James and Stevenson aren’t contributors on the Wizards.

Why this works for the Knicks:  New York is desperately trying to clear space for next years free agent class and could add another $8.5 million for the offseason. They could miss Hill down the road, but he’s far from a finished product, and if they can end up with two of the stars from the FA class I don’t think anyone will be complaining.

Trade 5: The Wizards trade Randy Foye and Dominic McGuire to the Grizzlies for Sam Young, Marcus Williams and a 1st round pick (The Nuggets pick that Memphis has)

Why this works for the Wizards:  The Grizzlies are one of the few teams in the league that can take on any salary and stay under the cap. Young would be a solid 2 or 3 off the bench. He has ton of potential and is the exact character guy that this team needs an influx of (not to mention he is a local guy who grew up in MD). Since the Wizards aren’t doing anything this season they should save some money against the luxury tax as well as pick up a few good pieces for the future.

Why this works for the Grizzlies:  The Grizzlies are an up and coming team, that could use a good player on the wing. Foye fits perfectly for them since they don’t want to take on any long term deals, and is a restricted free agent next season.Since the Grizzlies have two extra first rounders, they can give up one to add a good player.

Trade 6, Out of all these deals this probably has the least likelihood of happening, but  here it is: Wizards trade Mike Miller (Expiring contract), Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee to New Orleans for Emeka Okafor and Morris Peterson

Why this works for the Wizards:  Up until this point the Wizards have focused on the future, with guys with potential and draft picks. Here they can use they’re cap situation to get them some legitimate talent. By taking on Peterson’s bad contract and giving up some potential and cap space, they get a very good PF/C in Okafor. Okafor isn’t a superstar, but gives the Wizards the power big man they’ve been lacking for years. Blatche, Young, and McGee all have potential, but haven’t consistently shown it for the Wizards. Peterson is an okay player, and will give the Wizards another contract that is up after next season.

Why this works for the Hornets:  New Orleans, thought the addition of Okafor would make them a frontline contender, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They have one of the worst salary situations in the league and moving Okafor would allow them to keep their top two players (West and Paul), and get rid of Peterson’s contract. While there is some upside in the trade the main feature would be the cap room saved next year with the expiring contract.

While fans may be upset and hate the idea of these trades they are the right move for this franchise. By acquiring a number of cheap, young players, they can build a solid core and have the depth to build for the future. They could package some of that young talent with their additional 1st round picks and trade up for another lottery pick. Washington will also free up some money from their cap number this year, reducing their luxury tax number. They will still have the money to add a 2nd tier free agent this season, and will have enough coming off the books to be a big player in 2011. It might be an ugly year and a half at the box office in D.C., but will finally put this team on the right direction.

Playoff Roundup:

January 11, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Three blowouts and one great game if you like offense, that is all you need to know to summarize this weekend’s playoffs. Overall though I can’t complain, because every team I was rooting for won. A couple quick points I want to make about the games this weekend:

–For all the talk about this being a quarterback league and that you need a franchise quarterback to win the big games, defense and the run game were the difference in the first round. The four highest paid QB’s in the first round all are going home and of those matchups you can really only say that Romo was better than McNabb (and that is a pretty close comparison). Though Warner is a ‘franchise’ guy, and Flacco and Sanchez could one day be as well, none of them were the best quarterback on the field.

–Running game and defense were the difference in ALL the games.

While you wouldn’t think the Cards could play defense with the way they were torched by Rodgers, they made two big plays early, as well as the fumble return that won the game in overtime. They also put more consistent pressure on Rodgers than the Packers defense did on Warner. The Cards out gained the Packers on the ground 156-90. The Ravens defense absolutely dominated the Patriots from start to finish, they forced four turnovers and had Brady completely confused. They won with just 34 yards through the air (Flacco had a 10.0 QB rating!), because they controlled the running game 234-64.

As for the Saturday games: The Cowboys forced four turnovers, and also chipped in with four sacks. They out gained the Eagles 198-54 on the ground. The Jets game is the one exception as they didn’t out rush the Bengals, both teams finished with 171 yards, but the Jets defense controlled that game from start to finish, with 3 sacks and forcing two turnovers. For the Bengals, running the ball is the only way they could move it (not good when they spent most of the game trailing) as Darrelle Revis absolutely shutdown Chad Ochocinco.

–Another interesting thing was of the three repeat matchups from week 17, only the Cardinals changed their fortune: We heard all week how you should take the results from week 17 with a grain of salt, because the playoffs are different, or they ran vanilla offenses, or that the Bengals, Eagles and Cards were resting their players, or that they weren’t trying because they had nothing to play for (even though the Eagles definitely did have something to play for). Despite all the talk and rhetoric all week, the exact same result happened when the Bengals and the Eagles got on the field this weekend (and the Bengals were now at home).

–The thing I love the most, is the four teams that were considered the “sleepers” or “dark horses” are now out of it: All year we heard about the Patriots being back this year, now that Brady was healthy New England was going to pick up where they left off in 2007. And the talk didn’t die down when they lost to the Colts or the Saints, or a few other games a ‘dominate’ team should have won. Instead it turned to how they would be a different team in the postseason, and a team that could go to the Super Bowl. In reality they weren’t a great team and got blown out yesterday (how hard is it to figure out the Raven’s offense: run right, run right, run left, run center, run right?).

The Bengals all season we heard how they were a new team with a ground game and defense to go along with Palmer and Ochocinco. Well the running game worked, but Palmer was off all day on Saturday. And what happened to that defense, not only did the Jets run over them, but they couldn’t figure out the Jets simple passing attack or get any pressure on Sanchez (has anyone ever seen two more simplistic offenses than the Ravens and Jets be successful in the playoffs??).

In the NFC, for a long time the Eagles became a favorite third option for all the analysts who didn’t want to pick a front runner. And Philly looked like an even better pick once the Vikings and Saints started struggling down the stretch. They looked anything but a Super Bowl contender on Saturday. The Packers became another favorite pick down the stretch, despite the fact questions about their O-line, pass defense and running game hadn’t been answered. All the talk of how they were a new team after the Cowboys game and that if they faced the Vikings and Favre again the outcome would be different is all for naught.

Sunday Playoff Previews:

January 10, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Revenge Meeting:

After their earlier regular season meeting it was apparent that there was no by the Ravens for New England, (though does any team really like Bill Belichick and the Patriots?) so I would expect Baltimore to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I’d also expect the Ravens to blitz Tom Brady early and often, not only to disrupt the offense, but to send a message for the phantom ‘Brady Rule’ call imposed upon them earlier this season. Regardless of the outcome, this will be a hard-hitting contest that’s fun to watch.

Baltimore has a good chance to go into New England and upset the Patriots, if they can stick to their game plan. The Ravens have a great running game led by Ray Rice, but Rice is complimented nicely by Willis McGhee and Le’Ron McClain. Their offensive line has given Baltimore big holes to run through all season, and should be able to win the battle in the trenches today. QB Joe Flacco is developing in to a fine starting quarterback in this league. He still has some issues with decision making, (holding the ball too long, or forcing it into coverage) but overall is a good quarterback. His receiving corps is far from top flight, but it does have a number of solid options. I’d look for Ray Rice to have a big game catching the ball out of the backfield. He’s not an easy task to cover for a linebacker, and if the Patriots defense blitzes he will find himself as the safety valve for Flacco. The real key to this game is the Ravens defense, though as a unit it was as dominate as its been in the past, down the stretch they played excellent football. When the Ravens needed them to come up big they always played their best. If they can keep up that performance today, I don’t see how New England moves the ball on them.

On New England’s side things aren’t looking good for the Patriots. Their running game has been awful this season, partly due to the ineffectiveness of the offensive line, party due to struggles at running back. That lack of a rushing attack is a big question plaguing New England as the Patriots start the playoffs. They still have one of the best passing attacks in the league with Tom Brady and Randy Moss, but that unit had a major blow when it lost Wes Welker in week 17. Welker is Brady’s safety valve and multiple people will need to step up to replace his value. New England does have a promising rookie in Julian Edleman, but he has big shoes to fill unless the Patriots change their game plan. I would guess we see TE Ben Watson and RB Kevin Faulk involved in the game more, in an effort to open up things down the field for Moss. The biggest issue for New England is their offensive line play, usually they do a good job of keeping Brady upright, if they don’t the Patriots could be in some trouble. As good as a quarterback as Brady is, he really struggles under pressure, and his numbers fall off big time when he’s getting hit. Without Welker there, Brady will need to find another safe receiver to get the ball too once he sees the pressure coming. Another issue with the Patriots is their defense, when New England was winning Super Bowls it was because of the defense more so than their offense (Adam Vinatieri didn’t hurt either). Now their defense is just good and not the great, dominating defense that was successful for them in years past. They have a good secondary, one that can make plays when quarterbacks make mistakes. But therein lies the problem, this defense doesn’t attack the QB like they used to, and that lack of pressure has led to a decrease in the number of take-aways they have. The Patriots defense will need to find away to slow down Flacco and Rice and not let them match the Patriots offense.

It looks like New England should lose this game, but I think they will pull it out in the end for two reasons. Home field advantage and their previous playoff experience. I think Brady and Co. will pull this game out in the end 23-21.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

Can the Arizona Cardinals Match Last Year’s Magical Playoff Run?

Last week the Green Bay Packers won a meaningless game over the Arizona Cardinals 33-7. Both teams knew they had nothing to play for, and they knew they would face each other in seven days for an NFC wild card game. Surprisingly, Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt and Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy took very different approaches last week: Whisenhunt benched most of his starters in fear of potential injuries, and McCarthy played his starters for most of the game.

It will be interesting to see which team will benefit, as Green Bay may find itself in a better flow and more in-sync, and Arizona may feel more rested with essentially a game off.

Last week’s game, though, will in all likelihood prove itself irrelevant to this weekend’s playoff match-up, as both teams will ostensibly play with more intensity than weeks prior.

The Cardinals are the reigning NFC champions, and they come into the playoffs with much more respect than last year. They will not be given the opportunity to sneak up on anyone, and their road to the Super Bowl will be incontestably more difficult. Not to mention, the NFC in its entirety is loaded with more elite teams this year than last.

In consideration of last year’s run through the playoffs, the Cardinals are very difficult to judge. At the end of the regular season last year, they looked like dead weight in the playoffs, and they were expected to get blown out in the first round. Instead, they looked like an entirely different team – they played defense, and they were nearly unstoppable on offense.

It seems unlikely that Arizona can muster the same playoff effort as last season’s, and, like last year, they are going up against a better team on paper. Green Bay has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they also have one the best quarterbacks in Aaron Rogers. This is a team built for the playoffs that has gotten better each week. They, like Philadelphia, are a major scare team that could do a lot of damage.

Kurt Warner and Co. will keep the game exciting for the Cards, but Green Bay will be too much in the end. Rogers will guide the Packers to an efficient, close win, and their defense will keep the explosive Cardinals air attack in check. Final score: Green Bay 27 Arizona 24.

Saturday Playoff Previews

January 9, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Running to Victory:

The Jets and Bengals will meet up for the 2nd straight week, though this time the Bengals will the home team, and will hope for a different result. Last week they got absolutely demolished 37-0. Now the most ardent Bengals fan will tell you that they played a ‘vanilla’ game and they rested their starters in the 2nd half. What they forget to mention is that Carson Palmer has had some bad performances in recent weeks (even if you excuse Sunday night’s debacle) against the Browns, Vikings and Chiefs. Now you can understand Vikings game, they were on the road, and Minnesota is a pretty good team. But struggling against the Browns and Chiefs is a bit more problematic, those are the two worst teams in the AFC this season (they also lost to Oakland earlier this year). What’s more, is it wasn’t just Palmer who has struggled some, their running game has come to a halt of late, and their defense isn’t dominating like it did earlier in the year. The one saving grace for the Bengals is they face the New York Jets and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.

One dimensional doesn’t even describe the Jets offense right now, as all they truly do is run the football (the only positive is you know you can run some play-action passes against the Bengals today). While we’ve seen our fair share of run-oriented teams with a strong defense make the playoffs in recent years, and the Ravens, Steelers (in 2005), and Bears all went to the Super Bowl, none of them compare to the Jets this season. Mark Sanchez has a bright future, and may one day end up being a franchise quarterback. That day won’t be today, as the Jets know the more passes Sanchez attempts the lower the teams chances of winning are. And it wouldn’t shock me in the least if Wildcat quarterback Brad Smith dusted off the old arm and put the ball in the air a few times.

The fact is I don’t think the Jets will need to throw the ball too many times, as I see their running game having no problems carrying the load today against the Bengals. The Bengals defense has fallen off as the season has worn on, and the Jets have too many weapons running the ball with Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, and Brad Smith all figuring to get their share of carries. The Jets also have one of the league’s best offensive lines, who have opened up big holes all season for Jets’ runners. With that kind of ground game, I think the Jets will call a couple play-action passes and a few screens to keep the defense somewhat honest. Outside of that I think New York will keep on running it until the Bengals show they can stop it.

It will be up to the Jets defense to keep the Bengals from scoring and give the offense some short fields to work with. I see their defense having no trouble either task. The Jets were first in the league in points allowed, total yards and passing yards (thank you Darrelle Revis). Their rush defense was 8th and quite a force as well. To see just how dominate the Jets passing defense was, one only needs to look at this stat: The New York Jets had the 31st ranked passing offense (in terms of yards) yet in 10 out of their 16 games had the top passer of the game (Sanchez 9 times, Clemens once). Of the 6 games where they didn’t have the top passer (solely in terms of yards, not interceptions) the QB’s that beat them were Brady twice, Brees, Henne, Garrard and Manning. That is pretty impressive considering only Brady threw for over 300 yards (in the 2nd game) and in the first game against Brady he had bad overall numbers just enough yards over Sanchez. I think the Jets defense puts up another great performance and shuts down the Bengals 24-13.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet:

Can Tony Romo Finally Win a Playoff Game?

Not only is this an NFC East divisional rivalry, but also this is a rematch of just last week’s meeting. Dallas trounced Philly 24-0 at home days ago, and it culminated in a season sweep over the Eagles. Last weekend’s contest determined the winner of the NFC East, and gave Dallas home field for the opening round of the playoffs.

The Cowboys have been up-and-down this season, and they have been a bit unpredictable, but they are a talented group that has come together at the right time. The Cowboys finished the season beating New Orleans, Washington and then Philly when many people had written them, as they had collapsed late in the season so many times before.

Unfortunately for the Cowboys, there is still plenty of time left to collapse, and Tony Romo is still working on his first playoff victory. Should the Cowboys lose, there will be a lot of talk of Romo’s inability to pull out wins in the playoffs, which may be unfair and results-oriented, but that is criticism that comes with being a quarterback.

With that in mind, this is arguably Romo’s biggest game as a pro. He is going up against a team that he has already taken down twice this season. He beat the Eagles only a few days ago, and this playoff game is essentially a replay. The only difference is that it is the first game of the playoff tournament, and anyone that thought Romo was incapable of carrying a team in the playoffs will now have much more ammunition if the Cowboys lose.

If it has not been made clear yet, the Cowboys losing to the Eagles is a definite possibility. The Eagles have one of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL, and when Donovan McNabb connects on his deep plays – mainly to DeSean Jackson – they are virtually unstoppable. The Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints, are waiting for the winner of this game, will most likely be rooting against the Eagles because they are team nobody wants to face – even the Cowboys.

The Eagles will avenge both losses earlier this season, and they will hand Dallas yet another devastating and frustrating playoff loss that will re-open the “Romo can’t win in the playoffs” talk. Final score: Philly 30 Dallas 21

National Championship Wrap-up, Jevan Snead Decision

January 8, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Thoughts on National Championship:

Congrats to the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship game last night, 37-21. It was a great win by Alabama, led by their defense and running backs Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. Ingram and Richardson combined for 256 yards of Alabama’s 263 total yards (total yards include the loss yardage of McElroy’s sacks), and all four offensive touchdowns. Texas couldn’t stop the two backs, who did anything they wanted all game (how good is Alabama’s backfield going to be next season). Not to take anything away from Alabama’s win, but this game was really over when Colt McCoy left the game with a shoulder injury on the first drive. His backup Garrett Gilbert came in for the rest of the game. Gilbert, a true freshman, has a bright future. But the kid was in over his head last night, completing just 15 of 40 attempts and throwing four interceptions. It would have been nice to see what the Longhorns could have done with Colt McCoy at the helm, but I think Alabama would have still ended up winning.

Jevan Snead Decision:

While I will update the Underclassman leaving for the NFL Draft post soon, I wanted to take a moment to focus on one decision that has gotten a lot of attention in the last 24 hours. That decision is Junior quarterback Jevan Snead, leaving Mississippi to enter the draft. Snead had one more year of eligibility, but has already used his redshirt (when he transferred from Texas) so he has been in college football for 4 seasons. If you had said 5 months ago that Snead was declaring early, no one would have blinked an eye. At that point he was considered a first round draft pick, and potentially the top quarterback taken in April. Now Snead his taking a lot of criticism in the media for declaring early. At first glance you can understand why, Snead’s numbers fell big time this season and he ended the year with 20 interceptions. Conventional wisdom would have said Snead should come back play one more season and hopefully rebuild his stock back up to the first round level.

Right now Snead’s stock has fallen into the third round range, and much of his draft position will be determined by his workouts (note to Snead run every drill at the Combine and do the individual workout), so going back to school made some sense. In reality though I think Snead made the right choice, going against conventional wisdom and coming out early. Snead will lose his two biggest offensive weapons, WR Shay Hodge, and RB/WR Dexter McCluster to the draft. In addition, he will lose his top offensive lineman John Jerry, as well as a few other offensive role players (another starting offensive lineman is applying for a medical redshirt so he might be gone as well). The Mississippi offensive is going to be rebuilding this season, and not exactly the situation you want to be in when you want to ‘rebuild’ your draft status. And with the losses on the offensive line, Snead would probably take more hits than he did this year (which were quite a bit), increasing his risk for injury. Snead did not have a good situation to come back to, and would be facing some competition from the young quarterbacks on the roster. If he got injured or had a really bad game, there is no guarantee that he’d get his starting job back.

I think Snead made the correct and prudent decision to jump to the NFL and tie his stock to his individual workouts and the Scouting Combine. Snead might not be able to improve his stock back into the first round or even the second round for that matter, but even if he is a 3rd or 4th round pick I think he made the right call. He will still get decent money for being a mid-round pick, so his personal well being is set. As for his long term future, if he needs to rebuild his stock, he might as well do it from an NFL sideline than a NCAA one. He can get a jump start on learning the nuances of being an NFL quarterback and could even accelerate the time table for him becoming a starter. I think Snead could have a bright future, if some team is smart enough and patient enough to draft him in the mid-rounds and let him develop for 2-3 years.

(1) Alabama vs. (2) Texas

January 7, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Tonight the Alabama Crimson Tide look to extend the SEC’s streak of National Championships to four with a win over the Texas Longhorns. Led by Heisman Trophy running back Mark Ingram, and a roster littered with pro prospects, the Crimson Tide are pretty strong favorites tonight over the Longhorns. Don’t count Texas out just yet, the year before the SEC started this National Championship run (2006), the Longhorns were big underdogs to the USC Trojans, and ended up beating them in overtime.

Texas might not have the weapons to match up on offense with Alabama, but they do have two very important players, quarterback Colt McCoy and receiver Jordan Shipley. Both players are seniors, and both players lack top end skills for their positions, yet get by on the smarts and experience. The biggest question for Texas is which McCoy is going to show up? The one who dominated all season, or the one who struggled against Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship game. I think for Texas’s sake we will see more of the former, and quite a bit less of the latter. I think McCoy will have a big game tonight, and will make plays with his legs as well as his arm. The McCoy and Shipley connection can keep them close on offense, but the real question is if the Longhorns defense can slow down the Crimson Tide.

The short answer is ‘not likely’, as the Tide have a very balanced offensive attack. In addition to Ingram, they have weapons at tight end and receiver as well as depth at all those positions. Quarterback Greg McElroy might not be as highly rated as McCoy, but he had an excellent season and always came through in the clutch. While Texas has a pretty good front 7 on defense, their secondary is pretty weak and I think they will be exploited a couple of times tonight. Usually the Longhorns rely on their pass rush, but the Tide have done a great job keeping McElroy upright this season. While I believe that Texas will be able to move the ball on Alabama’s defense and keep the game close, I think the Crimson Tide will make a couple of key defensive stops and that will be the difference in the game. Alabama 31-24.

Extended ‘Holliday’ In St. Louis

January 6, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Cardinals made a commitment yesterday to their fans, and to Albert Pujols that they want to win and be a consistent contender with their resigning of LF Matt Holliday. They gave Holliday the biggest free agent deal of this offseason (7 years $120 million, with an option year for an 8th year). In addition to the size and money in the contract, the deal includes a full no trade clause, which could be trouble for the Cardinals at the end of this deal. By signing Holliday long term they secured one of the games top 20 power hitters for the middle of their lineup. And someone that can legitimately protect the best power hitter in the game, Pujols. This move goes a long way to giving the Cardinals a playoff caliber lineup for years to come.

For Holliday and his agent Scott Boras, this was a big win for them. They got more years and money than not only this free agent class, but most of the free agents of the past few years (except for those signed by the Yankees). The Cardinals are a good fit for Holliday as well. They have been a consistent contender this past decade, including going to two World Series. While Colorado made a nice run a couple of years ago with Holliday (and last year without him), they have more or less not been a contender during Holliday’s time there. I also think staying in the National league, in a relatively hitter friendly park, with Pujols with him in the line-up is the perfect fit for Holliday.

While Holliday is a great addition for the Cardinals is the short term and makes them a top contender, was this the right move for St. Louis? I’d say yes and no. Holliday was the perfect bat to add to the lineup, but they did so at an incredible cost. I have no problem with the $17 million per year, but the 7 years seems a bit too long, especially for the National League. Right now Holliday is considered an above-average defender, but the last couple of years of this contract that might not be the case. As a left fielder now, there is no other place to ‘hide’ his declining defense but first base, and that’s not going to happen if they resign Albert Pujols (which is a no-brainer).

The other issue is with the money, and will they have enough to extend Pujols, and give new contracts to their two ace pitchers, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. While the Cardinals have been a top contender, they’ve never spent like the New York, Chicago, LA teams (or Boston as well). They will have to raise their payroll significantly, and over the long term if they want to keep all these players and field a winning team. Until that time though, St. Louis fans should be happy and get ready for a deep playoff run next season.

UPDATED: “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” — Underclassmen Declaring for the NFL Draft

January 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

With the college football season over for most teams and the deadline for declaring for the NFL Draft coming up, dozens of young players are asking themselves this very question. For most players, the decision is obvious (though there have been multiple instances of players making the wrong call), but there are plenty of players for whom the decision is a bit tougher. So far we’ve seen almost 20 players declare early for the NFL draft, here is some insight into their draft/pro prospects, and if they made the right move or not:

DE Carlos Dunlap-Florida: Dunlap has the size and speed that is coveted by the NFL and could project to be the next Mario Williams/Julius Peppers. Dunlap has a habit of taking plays off, and doesn’t chase down ball carriers that aren’t on his side. He also had a DUI that forced him out of the SEC title game (think UF could have used him?). His skill level and size should have him taken in the top 5 picks, but his work ethic and decision making (on and off the field) will have him slide to at least the middle of the 1st round.

C Maurkice Pouncey-Florida: Pouncey is a versatile player who can play any position on the offensive line. His best position is center, and should be the first one off the board in April. While he’s the top center, he probably won’t hear his name called until the mid to late 2nd round.

DE Derrick Morgan-Georgia Tech: Morgan should be the top defensive end taken. He has nearly the same size of Dunlap, with none of the concerns about work ethic or production. Morgan will easily be in the top ten, and should have a huge impact his rookie year.

S Morgan Burnett-Georgia Tech: Burnett has good ball skills and will probably stick at free safety at the next level. He’s a good hitter, and a pretty sure tackler. Overall his game reminds me of Reggie Nelson, though I think his instincts need more refinement. The safety pool is pretty deep this year so I could see him sliding to the 3rd round.

RB Jonathan Dwyer-Georgia Tech: At one point it looked as though Dwyer might sneak into the first round, but he lacks the break-away ability of most 1st round running backs. He’s a tough between the tackles back, that should be a work horse in the NFL. I think he goes early in the 2nd round.

ILB Rolando McLain-Alabama: There really isn’t any case to be made for McLain to stay in school, he won a National Championship and is an easy first round pick. He could very well end up in the top 15, and reminds me some of another SEC ILB, Patrick Willis (though probably a touch slower).

S Chad Jones-LSU: Jones picked the wrong year to declare early, as he’s a first round talent who might not go off the board until the middle of the 2nd round. He shows some inconsistencies, but has the talent to play either safety position. He will need excellent combine numbers to sneak into the first round/early 2nd round picture, but should be starting safety for years to come.

FS Major Wright-Florida: Wright is a big hitter with a ton of speed, but his ball skills hold him back from being an elite safety prospect. He probably needed another year at Florida, but with all the coaching uncertainty there, it makes some sense as to why he’s leaving early. I don’t see him drafted before the mid-3rd round, and that’s only if he tests well at the combine and pro day. For a team that takes a chance on him, they could end up with an excellent starter down the line, given his physical tools.

RB Darius Marshall-Marshall: Marshall probably should have stayed in school and tried to rebuild his reputation. He was arrested last year on drug charges and has shown a lack of discipline and work ethic. He has some of the physical tools to play at the next level, but will need to persuade NFL teams that his trouble past is behind him for him to be drafted at all. I can’t see him being taken any higher than the 7th round.

CB Amari Spievey-Iowa: Spievey had a great year and a good bowl game so I can see why he’s making the jump, but I don’t really know if he can separate himself from the pack and be a top 50 pick. He’s a good corner, but doesn’t really do anything exceptionally, which will hold him back. I could see him fall to the 3rd or 4th round range, if he doesn’t run well in the 40.

OLB Rennie Curran-Georgia: I think this move has to do with the uncertainty of Georgia’s defense (as they still lack a coordinator). Curran could have gone back to school and been in the 1st-2nd round mix next season, but will have to settle for a 3rd round grade right now. The biggest knock on Curran is his size, which pretty much means he’s going to be a weak-side linebacker in the NFL. He’s got a lot of potential but is pretty raw overall.

RB Joe McKnight-USC: With Carroll leaving, a weak running back class overall, and some potential NCAA sanctions (suspension) hanging over his head, McKnight made the right call to enter the NFL. He has a lot of upside and talent, but didn’t always show it during game day. McKnight also has his share of injuries, which should knock down his draft status to the 3rd round. A team looking for a specific skill set could take a shot on him earlier (or the Seahawks), but the mid-rounds will be likely where McKnight comes off the board.

WR Damien Williams-USC: Despite all the 5 star recruits the USC offense boasts, it was a guy who transferred in (from Arkansas) that shined the brightest. Williams may get looked down upon given the recent history of busts the USC has produced at the receiver position, but that would be a huge oversight by the NFL. Williams might not be the fastest receiver or the biggest, but don’t be shocked if he’s the best out of this class. His route running and catching ability are excellent, and he shined despite having back to back 1st year starting quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Williams should go off the board in the latter third of the 1st round.

WR Carlton Mitchell-South Florida: Mitchell is another player whose leaving early seems tied to an uncertain coaching situation. He’s a raw prospect with a lot of potential, and great size, but likely won’t hear his name called until the late rounds.

WR Demaryius Thomas-Georgia Tech: In most situations you’d say Thomas should stay in school, since he’s unlikely to go in the top 2 (or even 3 rounds given the depth of this year’s class). But Georiga Tech’s offense isn’t most situations, they run the ball the majority of the time, and don’t allow Thomas to showcase his immense talents. Thomas has the size and speed to match up with any prospect in this draft class, but is about as raw as they come. I will say that Thomas reminds me of the size-strength-speed combo of Anquan Boldin, and could quietly become the steal of this draft class. I think someone will take a shot at him in the 3rd round, then again receivers very often can get over drafted.

FS Earl Thomas-Texas: Any other year Thomas would be the first safety off the board, but Eric Berry will have that honor. I still would be schocked to see Thomas around after the top-15 picks. He has excellent ball skills and should be a difference maker at the next level.

QB Jevan Snead-Ole Miss: I’ve already gone into great length about why Snead made the right choice. I do think his draft stock is hurt a bit, but given his size and tools he should be a great developmental quarterback in the 2nd-4th round.

WR Antonio Brown-Central Michigan: Brown is an odd player to declare, coming from a small school and given his numbers he has no shot of really going in the top 3 rounds. He would have been better served to stay another year and really show that his numbers aren’t a product of his QB (Dan LeFevour). That being said he is coming out with fantastic numbers, and you have to love his speed and agility. He could be a special teamer while he works his way up to being a slot receiver.

OLB/DE Jason Worilds-Virginia Tech: Worilds is a tenacious pass rusher, but he doesn’t really have the numbers to match up with his ability. I think he will need an excellent combine/pro day to have any hope of being drafted in the top 3 rounds.  It was an interesting move to declare early, especially given the number of pass rush specialists in this year’s class.

OLB/DE Thaddeus Gibson-Ohio State: Another interesting move to declare. Gibson isn’t a 1st or 2nd round pick, but has all the upside you look for in a rush linebacker. He’s too inconsistent to really project any higher than the 3rd round. Overall I like him as a prospect, but think he should have stayed another year.

DE Jason Pierre-Paul -South Florida: Pierre-Paul had a fantastic season this year, and has moved himself into the first round. While things could change that knock down his draft status, Pierre-Paul made the right call declaring early. He at times looks lost against the run, but is a top-notch pass rusher that will give tackles fits in the NFL. I think a late 1st to early 2nd projection is fair right now.

TE Aaron Hernandez-Florida: Hernandez is a one-dimensional pass catching TE, but his quite good at that dimension. He has great hands and has the speed and agility to pick up extra yards after the catch. Hernandez has excellent size as well, which makes him tough to cover and bring down. He needs to work on his blocking or he’ll get eaten alive by NFL DE’s, but now is the right time for Hernandez to come out with Tebow leaving and Meyer’s status up in the air. While he could sneak into the first round, I think its safe to say he will be a mid-2nd round pick.

OT Bryan Bulaga-Iowa: Bulaga is another 1st round LT talent. He excels at both run and pass blocking. While he won’t be the first tackle off the board he has the potential to end up being the best of the bunch in a few years. A lock to go in the 1st round and could push his way into the top 15 or 20 if he works out well.

CB Dominique Franks- Oklahoma: Franks is a bit of a surprise coming out early, as he definitely doesn’t project 1st round pick, and could slide past the 2nd round as well. That being said, he’s a solid corner with decent size and speed combination going for him. Given all the turnover on the Sooners defense next season, he probably wouldn’t have helped his draft status any by staying in school. His grade will change when its all said and done, but right now he should go in the mid to late 3rd round.

SS Reshad Jones- Georgia: Jones won’t be a 1st round pick, but some team will get an excellent football player in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Jones has 11 career interceptions, and has shown excellent ball skills for a SS. He has great size and speed and could move to FS depending on the system. Given that a new Defensive Coordinator will be coming into to Athens next season, now seems like a good time for Jones to move on to the NFL. Maybe he could have gone back and been a first round pick in 2011, but it would be far from a guarantee. Jones should be off the board by the end of the 2nd round.

OLB Navarro Bowman- Penn State: Bowman is a first round talent on the field, but some lingering off the field issues could cause him to see his stock fall. While his issues are relativity minor, the fact that there are a couple of them will cause a red flag with some teams. Another knock against Bowman is his lack of versatility, he projects to be a very good weak-side linebacker, but doesn’t seem like a likely fit to be either a rush linebacker or transition inside in a 3-4 system. Given his weakness as a pass rusher (which is always more highly valued), his inability to play in the 3-4, and his off the field incidents, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bowman slide into the 2nd round. He’ll need a great combine (particually the interview) and workout to maintain his round 1 grade.

CB Joe Haden- Florida: This was a no-brainer decision for Haden, as he is the best corner in the draft and a sure-fire first round pick. He has the talent to go top-15 or even top-10. While I will temper my enthusiasm, and not use ‘elite’ or ‘shut-down’ to describe him, I think he can be a very good starting corner from day one, with a chance to be among the league’s best. Anything less than a top-15 pick would be a complete shock.

WR Arrelious Benn- Illinios: Benn is an interesting case as he didn’t have a great season, and he’s yet to reach his full potential, but made the smart move in leaving early. Illinios has perhaps the worst quarterback play among FBS teams, and that is a big part of the reason why Benn’s numbers were so inconsistent. There was no reason for him to stay another year, that could potentially hurt his draft stock even more. Given Benn’s size and potential he should be able to be a mid-2nd round to early 3rd round pick.

SS Eric Berry- Tennessee: Berry is an absolute stud prospect, he hits well enough and is a good enough tackler to stay at SS despite his smaller size. Berry also has the speed, agility and ball skills to move to free safety as well (he could probably move to corner back and be a good starter, but safety is his natural position). Wherever Berry plays he will make an immediate and major impact at the next level. Berry should be off the board no later than the 5th overall pick.

RB Javid Best- California: Best should get plenty of interest from teams looking to get their very own Chris Johnson. Best is extremely fast and agile and should be an excellent weapon out of the backfield. The Johnson comparison is probably a little much, but Best is still among the better backs in this draft. He should be off the board no later than the middle of the 2nd round.

WR Dezmon Briscoe- Kansas: Briscoe put up huge numbers for the Jayhawks this season, though showed some signs of inconsistency. I love Briscoe’s size and his playing speed looks pretty good (will be quite interested to see what he runs in the 40), but I don’t see him going off the board before the 3rd round. That being said, I think Briscoe made the right move, there are major changes underway in Kansas so you never know how that offense will be next year. On top of that, next season could be an incredible year for WR’s if a number of juniors declare (as they are expected to), and guys like Baldwin, Jones, Green, Floyd will all be ahead of Briscoe. As will a few other returning players and potentially a couple of breakout players.

WR Dez Bryant- Oklahoma State: Bryant is the top receiver in this class and pretty much had no choice to come out after the NCAA suspended him for of all things knowing Deion Sanders. Of the many transgressions that can befall a collegiate athlete, knowing Deion Sanders and not reporting it has to be near the bottom of the list. Bryant has excellent size and speed and won’t have any problems with his “off-field issue”. He’s not a true ‘elite’ receiver so I could see him falling more in to the bottom third of the first round.

OT Bruce Campbell- Maryland: Campbell is a top notch tackle, and every indication points to him playing on the left side in the pros. He flew under the radar given how bad Maryland was is but went up against some of the top pass rushers in the nation in the ACC and held his own this year. Campbell should be among the top 2-4 tackles taken in the draft and is a definite first round tackle.

QB Jimmy Clausen- Notre Dame: Clausen went from being a solid quarterback, with some future pro potential to possibly the top pick in April’s draft. Clausen set himself apart from the pack this season, despite being on a less than stellar Notre Dame team (and he was without one of his top receiver’s Michael Floyd for most of the season). The recent revelations about Clausen’s foot injury (and the surgery that is needed) answers a number of questions about his toughness and character. It could potentially bump him out of the top-5 to 10 picks if teams are leery about seeing only one workout before April’s draft. Either way he made the right call and has the tools and potential to be a Franchise quarterback.

OT Anthony Davis- Rutgers: Davis probably could have gone back to school and been a top-5 pick next season (though I’d say there is a chance he gets that distinction this year as well), as he is still a bit raw, but is a sure-fire 1st round pick this April. Davis might need to ease into the NFL as a RT or some seasoning on the bench, but he has an extremely bright future as an offensive lineman. He’s one of the top offensive lineman in the draft and should hear his name among the top 20 picks.

DE Everson Griffen- USC: Griffen is a big strong defensive end with good pass rushing skills. He could sneak into the end of the first round, but his inconsistent play could drop him into round 2 or 3. He will need a good combine and show that he has the skills to match up against more elite offensive tackles. Given his physical tools, Griffen could develop into a top notch defensive end. He’s primarily suited for the 4-3, but if he adds a bit more strength he could be a 3-4 end as well.

RB Ryan Mathews- Fresno State: Mathews had a fantastic season this year, and has the size to take the pounding of 20+ carries a game. He might not be an elite running back prospect, but you’ve got to like him for his effort and work ethic. Mathews will probably be a mid-2nd round pick, but has the potential to end up being a very good starter at the next level.

DT Gerald McCoy- Oklahoma: In any other year McCoy would be the top defensive tackle on the board, but this year he will likely have to settle for being just a top-5 pick. McCoy is an excellent pass rusher and penetrator from his defensive tackle position and which ever team ends up with him, will get an elite player.

DT Brian Price-UCLA: Price really set himself apart with his junior campaign and could end up sneaking into the back end of the first round. Not bad for a guy who was barely on the prospect radar (for this season) at the beginning of the fall. Price has a ton of upside and should be a great get, by a team that can’t take either Suh or McCoy.

WR Golden Tate- Notre Dame: Tate is another player who is zipping up draft boards due to his strong junior campaign. He was a threat every time he touched the ball, and should be an effective punt returner in the NFL as well. Tate’s numbers were even more impressive considering that for much of the year he was the primary target with Floyd out. Tate should be taken no later than the top to the 2nd round and could even end up being the 2nd receiver picked in the Draft.

CB Donovan Warren- Michigan: If not for Haden, Warren would have been the top CB in the draft. He will still be a 1st round pick, probably somewhere between 15-20. He has all the tools to be a top-notch corner in the NFL, and should be an immediate starter.

WR Mike Williams- Syracuse: Williams quit the football team, right before he was about to be suspended from the team (again). While his transgression’s aren’t anything legal (which is a plus), they bring to mind serious questions about his character and work ethic. As a guy who started the season as a 2nd round pick (with the potential to improve), I’d be shocked to see Williams go before the 4th or 5th round. After he left the team he didn’t have much choice to declare, but his stock has fallen, and unless he has a great combine (interview)/workout he is in danger of being undrafted.

(9) UNC Loses OT Heartbreaker to College of Charleston

January 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The National Champs loss their fourth game of the season last night, putting a bit of a dimmer on any repeat chances they might have. Though it seemed unlikely that UNC would go undefeated the rest of the way, a loss to the College of Charleston hurts quite a bit more than a loss to say Florida State or Duke (except for the whole rivalry factor). The Tar Heels first three losses came against Syracuse, Kentucky, and Texas, all Top-10 if not Top-5 teams. While UNC would have loved to have taken one of those games, those losses aren’t shocking or overly damaging to UNC’s ranking or tournament hopes. Losing to Charleston on the other hand is damaging to both.

The Tar Heels will likely maintain their Top-25 ranking, but they will drop 10+ spots. Though it’s way to early to really make any predictions about the tournament, a loss to Charleston is a major black mark on their resume. In fact, I’d say last night’s loss hurts UNC worse than their other three losses combined. Now North Carolina will enter tournament play, in a much weaker position than they ever thought they would.

The ACC is a probably a tougher conference this year than season’s past. Currently there are five ranked teams in the conference, and a few others knocking at the door. In addition to the talent at the top of the conference, the ACC has gotten stronger as a whole. There really isn’t a ‘gimme’ game on the Tar Heels schedule this season. Right now the ACC depth is on par (if not better) than the Big East’s, where any team can knock off another. UNC will need to rebound and start off this conference schedule strong, if they hope to go far this season.

Personally I think the Tar Heels will be dangerous down the stretch, they are overall a young team that should improve as the season wears on. I think they can rise to the challenge of the ACC schedule and remain a solid contender. The key for UNC, as they hope for a chance of a repeat title, is to put themselves in a position for no worse than a four seed heading into the NCAA Tournament. If they can get a couple of easy games early, then I think they could do some serious damage in the Tournament. Regardless of where they end up, the Tar Heels are one team I wouldn’t want to face in March.