by Steve Shoup
(16) Oregon State vs. (7) Oregon
December 3, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
This year’s Civil War game has more on the line than just the pride of the state of Oregon, as the winner will take the PAC-10 championship and their ticket to the Rose Bowl. This rivarly always gets heated, and the Beavers will want redemption after losing 65-38 last year (and their ticket to Pasadena). The stakes are higher this year, as the Rose Bowl is on the line for both teams. So who has the edge tonight?
The easy answer is the Oregon Ducks, they are the higher ranked team and are at home. But Oregon knows full well not to take the Beavers for granted, so this game will be settled by the players on the field. As loud and as passionate as the Duck fans can get, I don’t see them getting into Beavers quarterback, Sean Canfield’s head. What will get into his head is the Oregon defensive front seven, particularly DE’s Kenny Rowe and Will Tukuafu. They should be able to get good penetration against Oregon State’s offensive line. The Ducks will need to rely on pressure to help out their young secondary against Canfield. The Ducks defense will have their hands full against the Beavers running game and Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers is as good as any back the Ducks have faced all season (which is saying something in the PAC-10). Stopping the run has been a mixed bag for the defense, as some running backs they’ve shut down completely and others have had a field day against the Ducks. If Oregon can at least slow down Rodgers, then they should be able to come away with a victory.
On offense the Ducks have their own young running back LaMichael James who has been running all over opponents this season. James, along with quarterback Jeremiah Masoli lead an impressive Ducks spread attack. James and Masoli are as good as any other 1-2 running attack in this country. Masoli can also beat teams through the air when necessary, making smart decisions when he does put the ball in the air. In addition to being a great runner and a good passer, Masoli brings one other tool to the spread attack, deception. Masoli sells the option fake as good as any quarterback in the country. Half the time the camera man (to say nothing of the opposing defense) is following the running back, while Masoli is ripping off a big gain on the other side of the field. Given their run focus, the Ducks don’t have the impact talent at receiver that other teams have (though they do possess good depth), but they do have one pass catcher that has given opposing defense’s headaches all season, tight end Ed Dickson. If it is 3rd down or the Ducks are in the Red Zone, look for Dickson to be the target. And don’t be surprised if he ends up making a big play. Dickson has been sure-handed all season for Masoli and the Ducks, and always finds a way to get open. He should be a big challenge for the Beavers defense that lacks the athleticism needed to cover him.
With Canfield, Jacquizz Rodges, and WR James Rodgers (Jacquizz’s older brother), the Beavers have the weapons to score every time they have the ball. Unfortunately, they lack the supporting cast and offensive line that will allow them to score at will. While I expect Oregon State to put up their fair share of points tonight, I think they will be stopped or turn the ball over on a few crucial drives. All in all though, offense isn’t the Beavers biggest concern, except when it comes to how their defense will stop the Ducks offense. Oregon State has struggled against the outside rush this year (an Oregon specialty), and doesn’t have the secondary to man up against the Ducks wide receivers or Dickson. I think Oregon State will keep it close early, but I’d look for the Ducks to pull away with a 42-31 victory.
I agree with your analysis almost completely, although I think the score might be a wee bit closer. I do think it will be close the first half. Tensions will be high and there’s bound to be a couple mistakes on both sides of the ball. I hope we blow them out of the water, though, because that’ll make everyone at Summers happy and I won’t have a near heart attack like the last game
.
GO DUCKS!!!
Ah, didn’t log in for the last comment, but that’s ok because I have more to add. I hope that this high-stakes Civil War game shows people around the country that the Pac-10 is a fierce conference with huge depth. Up until last week, there were four teams who were clearly up for the Rose Bowl, and USC wasn’t one of them (they did have a slight chance but were basically out of the picture). Those four teams didn’t get there by being mediocre, they got there by playing a reasonably tough schedule and winning. The games that were lost were to other quality opponents (often ranked). The Pac-10 may not always have blowout front runners like Florida and Alabama (although USC and the Ducks are generally ranked pretty high throughout their seasons), but they have more depth than most conferences. Their round robin schedule means they play each other to the finish line and often beat each other up. When the dust settles, it turns out that there are usually four or five quality teams left standing who could play with almost anyone in the nation. I have pride in my Ducks, and likewise, I have pride in my conference. Today is a proud day for the state of Oregon and the Pac-10!
Good points about the Pac-10, they do always seem to have depth in their conference if not top teams. The Pac-10 is also one of the best running conference’s in college football this year. In addition to James, and Rodgers (not to mention the other Rodgers and Masoli), you have Gerhart, Best, Polk and McKnight. A lot of those guys will be playing on Sundays within the next few years.
I think its a good thing that USC doesn’t have a chance to get to the Rose Bowl this season. I feel that’s why people look down on the Pac-10 compared to the other conferences. Even though the Pac-10 maybe had more bowl teams or ranked teams, it was really a USC conference. Every other conference has had at least one other competitive team year in year out (except the Big 12 this year, its all Texas). In the past when USC lost it was because “they” made mistakes and lost the game, not because they were just out played by their opponent. This year, Stanford and Oregon beat them, and beat them bad. Hopefully that opens people’s eyes to stop anointing USC as the Pac-10 champion before the year starts.