Vikings Lockup Childress:

Brad Childress signs an extension with the Vikings. My question is this…how much of this contract is owed to Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and Jared Allen? I mean Childress is a nice coach, but I have a hard time believing he’s elite. I think he’s done well in evaluating free agent/trade talent, but overall his draft track record is spotty (though Peterson and Percy Harvin do look nice). I mean his player evaluation does have to be questioned, since he legitimately believed that Tavaris Jackson is a NFL starting quarterback. Overall though the Vikings had to extend Childress, his team is 8-1 this season and is poised for a deep playoff run.

Dolphins Go For It On 4th and 3:

No this doesn’t vindicate Bill Belichick for his bonehead call last Sunday night! A few major differences between these situations, the Dolphins were on the Carolina 28, NOT THEIR OWN 28 yard line. The Dolphins also left only 39 seconds on the clock for the Panthers with no timeouts remaining, not two minutes and one timeout like the Patriots gave the Colts. And while the Dolphins could have tried a long 45 yard field goal to seal the game, if they had missed the kick they would have given Carolina the ball on the 35. I think Tony Sparano made the right call there, even though the Panthers did eventually get the ball in ‘hail mary’ range.

Lincecum Wins 2nd Cy Young Award:

Congrats to Tim Lincecum, unfortunate news for the San Francisco Giants since they will now have to sell the Golden Gate Bridge to afford to retain him. Lincecum enters this offseason as a Super-Two player, meaning that since he has played over two and a half years in the majors he is now eligible for arbitration, his first of four arbitration years. Usually when a player hits arbitration their salary jumps from league minimum ($400-450K) to somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.5-$4.0 million for solid players. Good players might be in the $5 million range. Now exceptional players have been known to get larger amounts, ex. Ryan Howard won his Super-two case for $10 million (and that was two years ago). Lincecum now has won the Cy Young Award in each of his two full seasons, compiling a career record of 40-17 with a 2.90 ERA, and that’s with a shaky defense and a pretty bad offense behind him (offense doesn’t help the ERA, but if he was pitching for the Phillies, Yankees or Red Sox he’d have 20+ wins a year). Looking deeper into the numbers, Lincecum has lead the league in strikeouts, and strikeouts per 9 innings pitched each of the last two seasons. He led the league in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in 2008, and was just barely beaten out by Zack Greinke this season. Lincecum is flat out dominate and now the Giants will have to open up their check book to keep him in town long term. What will it cost? Well the Phillies are going to end up paying Howard $64 million over his 4 arb. years (they signed a guaranteed contract last season), so I think that is at least the starting point. I say its going to cost at least $70 million to lock up Lincecum over the same time frame. As good as Howard is, the Giants would never trade Lincecum straight up for him. He’s a great power hitter, with just good on base skills at a prime power position. Howard is only average defensively, at the least important defensive position on the diamond. Lincecum by comparison is an elite pitcher who has dominated the league every fifth day for over two years now. If the Giants want to go to arbitration each year (and they will lose) they will probably pay out nearly $80 million plus if Lincecum doesn’t get injured, they have to sign an extension in my eyes. That $70 million sounds like a huge figure (and it is), but it ends up being a $17.5 million average, aka Barry Zito money (boy does that hurt).

Miami Dolphin fans got some horrible news this week when they learned their star running back Ronnie Brown would miss the rest of the season, with a foot injury. This is already after the Dolphins lost their starting quarterback, Chad Pennington, earlier in the season to injury. Now the most potent part of the Dolphins offense, and their team leader, will be watching the remaining 7 games from the sideline. This is a huge blow for the Dolphins, as it pretty much assures that they won’t be making any return trips to the postseason.

Sitting at 4-5 the playoffs were a long shot for Miami to begin with, but with their remaining schedule there was an outside chance they could force their way in. Of their 7 remaining games, 4 are on the road, but all four are against weaker opponents, Carolina tonight, with Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Tennessee coming up. With a Ronnie Brown led Miami team, those four games are all winable. And the Dolphins would have to win those four games, because their other three games are against New England, Houston, and Pittsburgh. Now the Texans they should have been able to beat at home, and they at least had a chance to upset either the Patriots or Steelers at home, forcing their way into the playoff picture at 9-7 or 10-6. Now with Brown out of the picture, this season could get ugly fast, and winning tonight in Carolina looks pretty grim.

Losing Brown no doubt hurts the fourth ranked rushing attack in the league, but it has a greater overall impact on the offense. Brown was part of a two headed monster at running back with Ricky Williams. Williams has been great this year for the Dolphins, and should be able to handle Brown’s work load easily. The problem now is that he won’t be coming on the field with fresh legs, limiting his ability to have break-away plays. Also, many times the Dolphins would have both Brown and Williams in the back field, which allowed both of them a lot more freedom to create. The biggest issue for the Dolphins offense is what does the loss of Brown mean for their Wildcat formation? Brown was such a weapon out of the Wildcat, and really helped make the formation work for the Dolphins. Now without him in the lineup the Dolphins greatest offensive formation will need a new leader, if they decide to stick with it.

I honestly don’t see how they can abandon the Wildcat, as I think they need it now more than ever. Chad Henne cannot be counted on to keep the Dolphins in games. With the exception of their week 5 win against the Jets, Henne has been a very ordinary quarterback. While I don’t think you can write him off just yet, I don’t think he is the long term answer behind center for the Dolphins. As for the rest of this season, you live with the ups and downs, but you can’t hope to put the game in his hands.

For the Wildcat, and their offense to be successful Miami will need to turn to two players who have been spending most of this season on the sideline, WR Ted Ginn Jr. and QB Pat White. White and Ginn are both extremely dangerous players when they have the ball in their hands, so Miami needs to capitalize on this by running them out of the Wildcat. White hasn’t shown any ability to pass this season, but should be good for a few big plays with his arm out of the Wildcat. Also, if the Dolphins run both White and Ginn out of the Wildcat at the same time, they could have a creative way to give Ricky Williams a breather. The running back depth is pretty thin after Williams, with a pair of rookies backing him up. It would make sense for the Dolphins to give touches to their play makers, instead of giving the ball to the rookies. Now I don’t think Miami can perpetually run their offense out of the Wildcat (though it might not hurt to try), so at some point Henne, and the backup running backs will need to touch the ball. But, by having the Wildcat as a focus, Miami can relieve some pressure off their young quarterback, and hopefully stay competitive for the rest of the season.

NFL:

Coaching Change in Buffalo:

Buffalo Bills head coach former head coach Dick Jauron is the first coach to get the ax, getting fired on Tuesday. This move had been rumored for weeks, so it doesn’t come as a huge surprise. But it is interesting when you see that six teams have records worse than Bills 3-6, and three other teams are tied for the same record. Buffalo doesn’t usually have the persona of a team who makes bold moves during the season, but maybe this is a sign of things to come in Buffalo. What I do find interesting is, if the Bills had upset the Patriots in Week 1, would Jauron have been fired? And the only answer I think is fair is, that beating New England would have saved his job now. But this Bills team is so bad that Jauron would have to be gone at the end of the season.

Larry Johnson Finds a Home:

The Cincinnati Bengals signed troubled running back Larry Johnson. Now I know the first reaction of many is “big surprise”, considering the issues surrounding many current and former Bengals. Cincinnati is a team that doesn’t alway put character first, and over the years has had its share of locker room issues. And one could arise with Johnson if he isn’t content on being the back-up running back. As long at the Bengals keep winning, I feel as though the situation won’t cause a problem. But if they lose and Benson wasn’t producing, how long will it be before Johnson puts his foot in his mouth again? While I think there is a serious reservation with signing Johnson, the Bengals had to add another running back with experience. Benson is leading the league in carries, and his top back-up is a rookie 6th round pick (Bernard Scott). Cincinnati will need to start limiting Benson’s load late in games to keep his legs fresh for a deep playoff run. Only time will tell if the good will outweigh the bad, with the signing of Johnson.

NCAAB:

Top 25 Surviving Early Upset Bids:

Just one day after freshman point guard John Wall saved No. 5 Kentucky with a last second shot, three other top 25 teams were taken down to the wire. No. 1 Kansas held their breath as Memphis’ Elliot Williams 3-pointer at the buzzer hit off the rim, giving Kansas the 57-55 win, and keeping them atop the polls. Their closest competition also faced a scare and No. 2 Michigan State was taken down to the wire by the unranked Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Bulldogs actually had a five point lead at half, and were still up by four with 4:48 on the clock, but could not close out Michigan State on the road. The Spartans controlled the last 5 minutes of the game, and Gonzaga’s youth and inexperience came to light with some bad shots and decisions down the stretch. Top 5 teams weren’t the only ones facing upset bids, as No. 20 Georgetown were able to outlast the Temple Owls during their home opener (despite their best efforts to give them the game). The Hoyas were struggling to find their rhythm all game, and led the Owls just 19-13 at halftime. Temple stormed back in the second half, but Georgetown took the lead for good with Greg Monroe’s basket with six seconds remaining.

The Deal: The Golden State Warriors trade G/F Stephen Jackson and PG Acie Law to the Charlotte Bobcats for G Raja Bell and F Vladimir Radmonovic.

The Warriors had their back against the wall with this deal. Jackson demanded a trade and was causing divisions on the team. Golden State had to get him out of town, and moving him and Law for Bell and Radmonovic helps the Warriors with some salary relief, team chemistry, and getting a decent scorer in return.

That being said, there are quite a few head scratchers with the deal as well. The first of which is including Acie Law, who for two years had been a bust, but now seemed to find a role as a solid player off the bench. Now the Warriors still have plenty of depth at guard, but including Law was a bit strange. When it comes to salary relief, this deal does get Jackson’s contract off the books, and will allow the Warriors to be a player in next year’s free agent market. Taking Radmonovic back in the deal limits the amount of money they will have to spend next season. Also, the inclusion of Radmonovic speaks to the level talent the Warriors could get back for their one time star player. Radmonovic at one time was a nice role player, who could give you a good 20-30 minutes a game. While never an inside threat, he always provided some offense from the wing. Recently though his game has fallen off, and he is no longer worth that much floor time (or his contract). Bell does give the Warriors, a nice player on the wing to replace Jackson, but their is a major problem looming. Bell has been playing with a hurt wrist severely limiting his effectiveness, and could opt for surgery at any time.

This deal isn’t too much better from the Bobcats perspective as well. Jackson and Law are a big time talent upgrade over Bell and Radmonovic, but at a serious CO$T. Jackson’s contract will be very limiting to the Bobcats in free agency over the next couple of seasons. Which is not good for a team lacking in star power. Charlotte is a team with a number of very good complimentary players, but no true superstar. If they had been able to go out and add a big name to the core of their roster, the Bobcats could have been a dangerous team next season. Now the Bobcats add a small spark to their offense, but limit their ability to add talent down the road. That may have made sense if Charlotte was looking for a playoff run, but they are 3-7 right now and seem to be heading for a lottery pick instead of a postseason berth. Another issue for them is team chemistry, how will Jackson react going from one bad team to another? Sure he might be saying the right things now, because he obviously wanted out of California. But how soon will he be demanding a trade out of Charlotte?

Winner: I really can’t decide a winner in this trade, and the only thing appropriate is one of my favorite quotes from The Wire, “No one wins. One side just loses more slowly.”

Last night with the Patriots vs. Colts Sunday Night Football matchup, we expected a battle between two powerhouses, and we weren’t disappointed. But for 56 minutes of this game the Patriots and Bill Belichick were in complete control with a 34-21 lead. Then Peyton Manning, showed that he is Peyton Manning. He drove the Colts 79 yards in 6 plays in just a 1:49, to cut the score to 34-28. The Colts defense came up with a big stop, leaving the Patriots 4th and 2 on their own 28 with 2:08 remaining on the clock.

Belichick elected to punt the ball to give as much distance between the endzone and future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning to go for it to run out the clock. Now, I like aggressive and bold play calling more than most people, but that is something you do playing Madden NFL 10, not on the road playing a game that will have playoff seeding implications. What was Belichick thinking? The first rule of football coaching is “You do not give Peyton Manning the ball on your own 29-yard line”, the second rule of football coaching is “You do not give Peyton Manning the ball on your own 29-yard line”.

Yeah I get it, Belichick supporters will point out that Manning drove 79 yards in a 1:49 seconds earlier, and the Colts still had one timeout remaining. And those people are right–2 minutes with one timeout is an eternity for Manning (that’s like 8 minutes with 3 timeouts for the Washington Redskins). But you have to have some faith in your defense to stop Peyton Manning with the game on the line. I mean its not as though this was the Browns or Lions defense. New England has a top 10 defense, overall and against the pass. They shut down Manning and co. for a good part of the game, forcing the Colts to punt 6 times in the first half (I think months have come and gone without the Colts punting 6 times). Maybe they wouldn’t have been able to shut down Manning, but at least you would have given them a fighting chance. The field was so short that the Colts were literally wasting time between plays, to make sure they didn’t score too quickly.

In the end, Belichick should have danced with the girl that brought him, his defense. Now I know everyone loves Tom Brady and the Patriots offense, and thinks they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. But they aren’t the reason the Patriots have three super bowl trophies. Don’t get me wrong the Patriots offense has been good during their Super Bowl runs, and in 2007 it was downright exceptional, but their defense has been the key to their success. Without their dominating defense they would have never been in a position to go to four Super Bowls (many times going through the Colts on their way).

Belichick needed to put the game in their hands and let the chips fall where they may. If they hold them, then you are a genius and the Patriots could be looking at home-field advantage in the playoffs. If the defense faltered, then it was a tough loss on the road against a great quarterback, and you wouldn’t be questioned about it ever again. Now Belichick will be second guessed for the rest of the season (and rightly so), home-field advantage in the playoffs is pipe dream right now, and there is a real possibility that New England will miss out on a bye. Last night’s decision was a major mistake, one that he will regret for the rest of the season. But that’s my opinion…what do you think and why?

Steelers v. Bengals +7

While I think the Steelers will win the game, it should be a close battle and I think the Bengals with the points are the right pick.

Jets v. Jags +7

This is another one where I see the Jets winning, but not by enough to cover the spread. Jags can definitely move the ball on the ground.

Broncos v. Redskins +3.5

Yes the Broncos are struggling, coming across the country, and are off a short week. But the Skins have been so bad that I can’t pick them with the points.

Titans v. Bills +6.5

I like the Bills in this matchup. The Titans might win the game, but if so it should be by less than a field goal.

Vikings v. Lions +16.5

Even with the huge spread, I don’t know how I can pick the Lions. If the Vikings want to, they could shut out Detroit and put up 35 points.

Saints v. Rams +13.5

Saints are too good not to win this game by 2 TD’s or more. The Rams haven’t been able to score much against their better opponents and I see them struggling to put points on the board today.

Falcons v. Panthers +1

I know the Panthers are playing better (mainly because they aren’t letting Delhomme throw as much). But I don’t have any faith that they can beat the Falcons even on their home field.

Dolphins v. Bucs +10

I like the Bucs with the points in this match up. I don’t think Freeman’s great, but he should make a few plays to keep this game close. I still have no faith in Henne to really lead the Dolphins offense.

Raiders v. Chiefs +2

This is a game that could go either way. I’ll give the Raiders the edge at home, though this could be the game where a 2 point spread comes back to bite you.

Cards v. Seahawks +8

Arizona is starting to show signs of life again, and if Warner and Fitzgerald get on the same page, I don’t know how you stop the Cards offense. I think they win by a double digit margin today.

Chargers v. Eagles +1.5

This is a great game that could go either way. I like the Chargers at home. You can’t think that in back to back weeks their game will be decided by one point.

Cowboys v. Packers +3

After losing to the winless Bucs, I have zero faith in the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. They have talent, but that offensive line is awful. Cowboys should win this game by at least a touchdown.

Colts v. Pats +3

This is a great game tonight, that really is for supremacy in the AFC. The Colts secondary may be banged up, but I think they can overcome their injuries and slow down the Patriots attack. At the end of the day Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, and so far that’s been enough for the Colts to remain undefeated.

By contributing Fanspeak writer Geoff Nelowet

(10) Iowa at (11) Ohio State

The tenth-ranked Hawkeyes took their first loss of the season last week, which nearly destroyed any national championship hopes Iowa once had. Should they win at Ohio State this weekend, the BCS rankings will be very interesting.

Ohio State, on the other hand, is coming off their best win of the season, and it had major Big 10 implication, as they broke the two-way tie for second in the conference against Penn State, and now they have an opportunity to take down the first-place Hawkeyes, and earn a BCS bid.

Ohio State is a superior team in talent. Iowa has no offensive threat equal to Terrelle Pryor. Iowa is a sound football team that makes few mistakes. They have had a great run this season, but it seems unlikely that they will pick where they left off without their starting quarterback – Ricky Stanzi. Iowa will be starting redshirt freshman James Vandenberg on what could not be a bigger stage: at the Horseshoe – the third biggest college football stadium in the country – vying for a Big 10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Iowa is a major underdog in this came, and rightfully so. Vandenberg will have to step in and play the game of his life, and Ohio State will have to make a few mistakes. This is where Pryor comes in. Pryor is electrifying, and he seems to either win or lose the game for the Buckeyes. Unfortunately for Iowa, though, it seems that both Pryor and Ohio State are finally hitting their stride.

Ohio State will take down Iowa, and they will do so convincingly. At the end of the season, Ohio State will be surprisingly high in the BCS rankings after what seemed like a down season. Final Score: Ohio State 34 Iowa 17.

Notre Dame at (12) Pittsburgh

Notre Dame is coming off their worst loss of the season to a Navy team that should not have been able to keep the game close, let alone win it. Not only did they lose, but Charlie Weis’ is now ostensibly on the hot seat. Notre Dame will respond in one of two ways: they will come out motivated and fired up to salvage their season and their coach’s job, or they will pack it in because they have nothing left to play for, as they are officially out of the BCS hunt.

Unfortunately for the Irish, they are going up against a Pittsburgh team that hasn’t loss since September 26^th. This could very well be Weis’ last season in South Bend.

Pittsburgh is beatable, though, and their schedule reflects that, as they do not have a win against a ranked opponent on their resume – and Notre Dame doesn’t either. These are too evenly matched teams, but at this point in the season, they have greatly differing incentives to win football games, and that could ultimately decide this game.

Pittsburgh has relied on their balanced offensive attack this season, which is lead by senior quarterback Bill Stull and freshman running back Dion Lewis. Lewis has been one of the top rushers in the nation this season, and Stull has complemented the run game with a steady, effective air attack. The Panthers are hard to stop on offense because they can beat a team in a number of ways.

Notre Dame, similarly, is also an offensive-minded program, and junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen was considered a Heisman hopeful earlier this season. Notre Dame is a pass-first offense, and Clausen has thrown the ball almost 100 times more than Stull this season, which may be a disadvantage because it shows that Notre Dame is a bit more one-dimensional.

Pittsburgh is better than Notre Dame at this juncture of the season, and they will be more intense than the Fighting Irish. Both teams will score points, but Pittsburgh will be more focused and more determined. Final score: Pitt 37 Notre Dame 28

With the Hot Stove heating up in baseball’s offseason, I thought I’d take a hometown look at what the Nationals are facing this offseason and offer up a few opportunities to improve in 2010.

Here’s what the Nationals have right now for 2010:

C: Jesus Flores (1st year of Arb.)

1B: Adam Dunn ($12.00)

2B: Cristian Guzman ($8.00)

SS: Ian Desmond (Minimum)

3B: Ryan Zimmerman ($6.35)

RF: Elijah Dukes (Minimum)

CF: Nyjer Morgan (Minimum)

LF: Josh Willingham (2nd year of Arb.)

Bench:

UTL: Willie Harris (signed for 2010 for $1.5 million)

C: Wil Nieves (1st year of Arb.)

OF: Justin Maxwell (Minimum)

INF: Alberto Gonzalez (Minimum)

Starters:

SP: John Lannan (1st year of Arb.)

SP: Scott Olsen (2nd year of Arb.)

SP: Garrett Mock (Minimum)

SP: JD Martin (Minimum)

SP:  Craig Stammen (Minimum)

Bullpen:

RP: Mike MacDougal

RP: Sean Burnett

RP: Saul Rivera

RP: Jason Bergmann

RP: Tyler Clippard

Other arms: Colin Balester, Sharion Martis, Ross Detwiler, Matt Chico

Obviously that’s not a pretty roster and the Nats will be making some upgrades through free agency and trades. Areas of concern:  2B, back-up catcher, at least two starters, and additional arms in the bullpen. I think Wil Nieves is a likely non-tender candidate (though they should try to resign him as a minor league FA). Bergmann, Olsen and MacDougal could all be non-tendered as well, but given the Nats lack of quality pitchers I don’t see them giving them up for nothing. Given Flores’s injury problems the past two years, the Nationals need to find a more reliable option behind the plate to back-up Flores. While there are a number of veteran catching options, most of them don’t make too much sense for the Nationals. One that does make sense is Gregg Zaun, who in 90 games last season put up some solid offensive numbers. He’s always been solid behind the plate, and his veteran presence should help Flores develop, and make the Nationals young pitchers more comfortable.

As for 2nd base, the Nationals have a couple of good options to pursue in free agency. Their primary target should be Orlando Hudson, with Placido Polanco as their fall back option. Hudson is a solid defender (though a bit overrated in that department) and would fit in nicely as the National’s 2 hole hitter. The only real concern with either Hudson or Polanco is they are Type A free agents and will require draft pick compensation (for the Nats it will be their 2nd round pick). Now usually I’m against a rebuilding team giving up a draft pick for a short term free agent fix, but here I think the Nats should make an exception. Two of the next tier of free agents are Ronnie Belliard and Felipe Lopez, but the Nats have been down those roads before.

As for pitching, the Nationals could use at least two additional starters, as their isn’t a sure thing in their rotation outside of John Lannan. The general thinking is that Washington will sign one pretty big name free agent starter and one lower end veteran. For the bigger name I think the Nationals should stay away from John Lackey and Randy Wolf since both are Type A free agents, and will cost the Nationals their 2nd round pick. I would target the 2nd tier of starters with John Garland as my primary option. Others that fit the profile would be Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis, and Vicente Padilla. Other additional arms that could be interesting are a group all with major injury concerns, headlined by Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, and Justin Duchscherer. Now all four of those pitchers have great upside, but are held back by their injury issues. Given the uncertainty of their production this year, I think the Nats should go with a starter with a better track record. Now if the prices fall on any of these free agents the Nats should look to move in for them to be their other starting acquisition.

As for the relievers, I think the Nats should stay away from any of the Type A guys, unless they aren’t offered arbitration (which negates the draft pick compensation). As for the other relievers on the market, I’d target Brandon Lyon, Kiko Calero, Fernando Rodney, and Bob Howry. Rodney could be a solid closing option for Washington, next season, and the rest of the guys would go a long way to strengthening a big weakness for the Nationals.

So far I’ve talked about what the Nationals will do, now I’m gonna give some options of what the Nats should do. Here are a couple of trade proposals and the resulting consequences that can make the Nats better in 2010 and a competitor in the near future.

Trade 1: Adam Dunn to the Baltimore Orioles for Sp David Hernandez (MLB), RP Dennis Safarte (MLB), RP/SP Radhames Liz (MLB), and SS Pedro Florimon (A+) or C Caleb Joseph (A+).

Why it makes sense: Dunn is in the final year of his deal that is back loaded ($12.00 million in 2010), and his overall value is hurt by his horrid defense. He has already been regulated to first base duty, and is really much better suited in the AL where he can DH. Dunn’s value will only decrease as the season goes on, and the Nats mind as well get some value for him now. This O’s trade offer won’t blow anyone away, but given the price tag, lack of position, and only one year remaining, it seems like pretty fair value. Hernandez would actually be the Nats 2nd best starter, at least until they sign a free agent. Safarte and Liz haven’t lived up to their potential, but give the Nationals something they’ve lacked; hard throwers in their bullpen. Florimon is a solid young prospect with a ton of upside. He plays a premium position and gives the Nats a good position prospect. The Nats won’t be able to get any of the O’s young stars, or any of their top 5 prospects, leaving them with quantity over quality.

Aftermath: The Nats improve their rotation and bullpen, and while the upside is limited it is an improvement for Washington. Florimon gives them depth in the minors as well. In addition, the Nats save $12 million dollars next season, which will give them the flexibility to address a number of issues. First they should sign Adam LaRoche to fill Dunn’s shoes at first. LaRoche can’t match Dunn’s offensive output, but he holds his own with the bat. LaRoche also is a superior defender than Dunn (not a great glove, but average), making them more comparable. The Nationals can then use the rest of their savings to add better talent at other positions.

Trade 2: The Nats trade SS/2B Christian Guzman to the Reds for either SP Bronson Arroyo or SP Aaron Harang

Why it makes sense: The Nats best middle infield defense is with Desmond and a free agent at 2nd base (see above). Playing Guzman hurts the Nationals already fragile rotation with his negative defense. Unfortunately for the Nats Guzman’s $8 million salary makes him pretty untradeable, accept for another undesirable contract. This is where Arroyo or Harang come in. Both are solid pitchers, but definitely overpaid. And the Reds are a team that is looking to slash payroll. A Guzman for Arroyo swap would save the Reds $5 million over the next two years (he has a $2 million buyout in 2011). Moving Harang would save $6.5 million over two years ($2 million buyout in 2011, like Arroyo). At the same time each team would fill a need, the Nats would get a veteran starter and the Reds would get some production out of their SS position. If the Nats were smart they would make it a larger trade involving 2B Brandon Phillips and giving up a couple of prospects. This way they could ignore the higher priced free agent market (and giving up a draft pick) for a quality 2B. Other bad contract options to move Guzman for would be Nate Robertson or Jeremy Bonderman from the Tigers or Jake Westbrooke from the Indians.

3rd Trade: The Nats trade Justin Maxwell, Michael Burgess (A+) (or some other upside prospect), and Luis Atilano (AA) to the Royals for OF David DeJesus

Why it makes sense: David DeJesus, as Fangraphs showed is an extremely underrated and underpaid corner outfielder. He would be a nice upgrade for the Nationals over Elijah Dukes. The Nats could use a better defensive outfield, which DeJesus would automatically provide. While he’s not a power hitting corner outfielder, he does have plenty of offensive upside. DeJesus is available because the Royals are another team that needs to cut payroll. DeJesus will make over $10.5 million over the next two seasons, so the Royals would do well to capitalize on him while they can. The Nats package is a little light I will admit, but seemingly DeJesus is undervalued throughout the league. I’m sure the deal would have to be tweaked some, but DeJesus is exactly the type of player the Nats should look to add.

That’s how I’d fix the Nationals. What do you think? Can Washington improve to a .500 showing this season?

1. Matt Holliday LF:  Holliday is one of the best hitters to reach the free agent market in the last few years. He is a legitimate  3 or 4 hole hitter on any team. He also offers solid defense out in left field for any team that wants him. Expect the Yankees and Red Sox to be interested, with the Giants, Braves and Mets as long shots.

2. Jason Bay LF:  Bay brings everything to the table that Holliday does with the exception of defense. Bay’s lack of defense and being a year older will make him a bit cheaper on the market. I’d expect all the same teams to be in on Bay, (obviously with the exception of whoever lands Holliday) and I’d add the Mariners to the list.

3. John Lackey SP:  Lackey is the top arm on the market this year, and a frontline starter on any team. He’s not an “ace” in the sense of CC Sabathia, but their isn’t a team in this league that wouldn’t like him in the top 3 of their rotation. Its interesting that the Angels seemed inclined to let Lackey walk. He has dealt with some injuries the last few years, bringing him down a notch or two. Dodger blue might make sense, the Mariners are another team that makes sense out West looking for top pitcher. If Lackey heads east the Yankees and Mets will be very interested, and the Red Sox will do their due diligence as well.  Two extreme dark horses are the Nationals and Orioles. Both teams have plenty of money to spend and need a top pitcher, but probably won’t overpay if the Yankees and Red Sox are involved.

4. Chone Figgins 3B, UTL:  Here we see a drop off in the market. While Figgins is a good player he’s hardly someone you build your team around. He doesn’t fit the typical 3B profile as his speed is his biggest asset. If the Angels can’t retain him, the Phillies will be the top team calling. Orioles, Giants, and Cardinals could all be interested as well.

5. Nick Johnson 1B:  Johnson has an injury history that will keep him from getting a long term deal, but when he’s healthy he’s one of the most productive players in the game. His power numbers and defense fell off some last year hurting his value, but he was still an on base machine. I’d expect the power numbers to rebound this season and for him to post around a .900 OPS. The Giants, Braves, Orioles, and Mariners should all be in on Johnson. I think the Mets will be interested as well, and I’d never count out the Athletics on anyone who gets on base as often as Johnson does.

6. Johnny Damon LF:  Damon isn’t a long term answer for anyone, but for the next 2 years there are few safer players out there on the FA market. Damon year in year out produces a solid OPS, whether its sometimes with a bit more power (20+ hrs) or a higher obp Damon is always a big cog in the offense. Damon also still has speed as a part of his game, and has always been a smart base runner. I think the Yankees will retain Damon, but if they go in another direction there will be a few teams interested. Giants and Cardinals make the most sense.

7. Randy Wolf SP:  Wolf had a great year for the Dodgers last season and helped them reach the NLCS. Wolf isn’t a true “ace” and is a few steps below Lackey. I think the Dodgers will retain him (unless they sign Lackey). If he does leave, the Mets, Nationals, and Astros (if they decide to fore go rebuilding) make the most sense. Some AL teams could come calling, but the NL seems like a better fit for Wolf.

8. Rich Harden SP:  In terms of stuff, Harden is the best pitcher on the market unfortunately he can’t find a way to stay healthy. As a result he can forget about any deal longer than two years and his price tag will be well below Lackey’s and Wolf’s. I think a number of teams will be in on Harden trying to catch lightening in a bottle. In addition to the usual suspects, I think the A’s, O’s, Nats, and Brewers will all be in on Harden.

9. Jose Valverde RP:  Valverde is the top closer on the market this season, but faces a few road blocks. The first being the glut of closers on the market, and the second the lack of legitimate openings among teams. Valverde is a good closer but is far from the supreme status of Rivera and Papelbon. The Phillies will be interested, but I don’t think they will overpay. The Nats, Rays, and Rangers all could use some help at the back end of their bullpen, but probably will look at cheaper options. The Cubs could be an interesting team to watch.

10. Aroldis Chapman SP:  Chapman is a 21-year old Cuban defector with a 100 MPH fastball, but also 100 questions that need answered as well. Is he truly major league ready? How are his command, control, and off speed pitches? These are just a few of those questions that teams will be asking. His age and fastball will get him a big time deal, but he is not without risk. The Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites in this race, everyone else has to be a long shot. The Orioles could get serious, especially if the Yankees sign Lackey (more or less taking them out of the race).

11. Joel Pineiro SP:  Pineiro is a solid mid rotation arm. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, but a great 2009 will give him a nice deal. The Cardinals will look to retain him, but expect a lot of teams to get interested in him. The Nats, O’s, Astros, and Brewers should all be at the top of the list.

12. Orlando Hudson 2B:  Hudson has lost a step defensively (though he still won the Gold Glove), but is still a pretty productive player at 2B. Hudson would be a nice fit for the Nationals and a solid 2 hole hitter for them. If the Mets can dump Castillo’s contract they could get involved as well.

13. Adam LaRoche 1B:  LaRoche struggled with the Pirates and Red Sox last season, but was on fire with Braves the last two months. Atlanta will look to keep LaRoche, but if they can’t the O’s, Mets, Giants and Mariners will be interested.

14. Mike Cameron CF:  Cameron is still a solid center fielder and offers both defensive and offensive upside. Athletics and Yankees could make sense. Also the Padres could bring Cameron back to patrol their spacious center field.

15. Marco Scutaro:  Scutaro is the top short stop on the market. He has always been solid defensively, and had a breakout offensive year. The Astros and Red Sox make the most sense.

16. Adrian Beltre 3B:  Beltre is a great buy low candidate this offseason. He had a pretty bad and injury filled walk year, but prior to that was the model of consistency, 20+ home run power, around an .800 OPS, and excellent defense at third. His offensive numbers should be helped by getting out of Seattle as well. The Twins and Phillies will be the most interested. I’d imagine the O’s will get involved as well.

17. Marlon Byrd CF, OF:  Byrd is very much under the radar, but one of the better outfielders on the market. Not too many teams need center fielders so I could see him landing in a spot like St. Louis or possibly with San Francisco.

18. Jon Garland SP:  Garland is another mid rotation candidate, who offers little upside but can be a great addition to most teams rotations. I think he’s a perfect fit in Washington. If the Cards lose Pineiro, he makes sense there, or would be a solid addition for the Brewers.

19. Andy Pettitte SP:  Part of the reason he is so low on this list is the fact that he is almost sure to resign with the Yankees. Also I don’t know how much you can trust him to put up another year like he had in 2009. He could easily have another 2008 down year. If he for some reason left the Yankees, the Dodgers or Astros make some sense.

20. Eric Bedard SP:  Bedard is very similar to Harden, a pitcher with amazing stuff, but has been too injured to make a long term investment in. Plenty of teams should be interested in him. And it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Orioles bring back their former staff ace.

Since Clinton Portis left Sunday’s game in Atlanta with a concussion, there has been a debate raging across the the DC metropolitan area, is Ladell Betts a better running back than Clinton Portis?  This debate was started when Betts ran for 70 yards over 15 carries on Sunday in relief of Portis. Since then, every blog, radio station, or newspaper has featured this debate, and more or less they have come to the conclusion that Ladell Betts is the better running back.

I personally don’t understand how this is even up for discussion. Yes Betts averaged 4.7 yards per carry on Sunday, but his overall numbers for the year are 26 carries for 91 yards for an average of 3.5 yards per carry. Meaning that his first 11 carries this season gained a total of 21 yards (or 1.9 yards per carry). Now I understand that 11 carries is too small of a sample size to really determine anything, but so is 15 carries in a game. Those 15 carries and 70 yards were against a Falcons rush defense that ranks 24th in the NFL. Its not as though Betts tore up the Steelers defense.

And if we look at the last few years, we will see that Betts hasn’t exactly been gaining big chunks of yards for the Redskins offense. Since his 2006 1,000 yard season, Betts has struggled running the ball for the Skins. In the last two seasons he averaged 3.6 and 3.4 yards per carry respectively. And its not as if Betts is a primary short yardage back that can skew the numbers. In fact a lot of times in which Betts has been as a third down back, which is why he has always put up good receiving numbers for the Skins. With the exception of 2006, Betts has never shown any ability that he can be a full time running back (or that he’s a great backup). Portis on the other hand has continually shown that he is a feature back, rushing for over 1,200 yards each year with the Skins (except 2006) and averaging over 4 yards a carry with Washington. And that is despite the fact that Portis has had to deal with the wear and tear of carrying the ball over 325 times a season.

Now I get it Portis is considered aloof by the media and fans, he doesn’t practice the same as everyone else and he walks on water in Washington. But let’s not criticize his production on the field due to his off field antics (which in the grand scheme of things how bad are they?). He has been a huge cog in Washington these last six seasons, and was a major reason why the Redskins were able to make their last two playoff appearances. Also, Portis is only 900 yards behind John Riggins on the Redskins all-time rushing list, despite playing in 35 less games, and having 370 less carries. Now I’m not trying to excuse Portis, but you can’t deny his production and consistency. The fact that he has started 40 straight games is pretty impressive for a running back. While it always seems like Portis is injured, he still plays and gets the job done. Betts on the other hand has missed time in four of his eight seasons, even though he’s only had over 100 carries once. And while there is a legitimate concern that Portis has lost a step, and isn’t the homerun hitter he was earlier in his career, it should be noted that Betts has never had a run longer than 27 yards in almost 750 career carries.

Ladell Betts isn’t the answer folks, if he had to go the rest of the season as the primary back the Redskins ground attack would be worse, not better. The only good thing about this debate is its brought to mind the question that has been swept under the rug for far too long; who is the running back of the future in Washington? Hopefully the Redskins can find a way to address this concern in the draft next season, because its obvious that Skins lack a long term answer to that question. Until then, let’s hope Portis can get back soon, and Betts can go back to being an effective receiver out of the backfield.