Brian From Pearl River, NY: 

-What are the Yankees chances for signing Cliff Lee?

I would peg the Yankees chances somewhere in the 40-45% range. As for the rest of his suitors I think the Rangers are a close 2nd somewhere in the 35-40% range, with the Nationals trailing at about 10%. For the remaining 10% I think is split between a number of potentially interested teams (Angel, Red Sox, etc.) that look like long shots (or at least longer shots) now but could become interested.

I think the Nationals can make the strongest case in regards to money, which might seem crazy considering the Yankees reputation with spending, but I believe that even they have their limits. The Nationals only have one player (Ryan Zimmerman) who is definitely part of their long term future making any significant amount of cash. Other players like Willingham and Dunn could be extended/resigned but they aren’t the cornerstones like Zimmerman. Two years ago the Nationals offered Mark Teixeira more money than anyone, so it wouldn’t shock me to see them go down that road again. Yankees might seem like they are made of money, but I don’t know if they are really willing to add a contract equal to or greater than Sabathia’s.

The Rangers can probably get competitive when it comes to money, but I’m sure it will be creative as well. They will likely try to keep Lee at roughly $20 million a year, but that might not be enough to keep him. Texas can offer Lee the comfort of knowing the organization and having a bright future. They are also the closest to his Arkansas home town, which could be a benefit. The Rangers though don’t have the infinite resources to keep Lee. Right now they are flush with money due to their postseason run, but the Rangers can’t base their contract to Lee completely on postseason revenues.

The Yankees of course have the best chance considering they have the need, money and prestige to offer to Lee. Although the Yankees contract offer could be slightly beaten by the Nationals (they won’t be able to offer $30 million a year or something outlandish like that), it won’t be outclassed. New York also offers almost guaranteed postseason appearances, and plenty of wonderful baseball history to fall back on. Also, it is a bit easier to lure free agents with guys like Jeter, A-Rod and Sabathia shilling for you, compared to Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and John Lannan. Lee could be swayed by playing with a collection of All-Stars, but it is possible (albeit slightly) that he might view that as a drawback.

Despite Cliff Lee being dominate these past three years and pitching a number of big playoff games, his stature of being one of the games elite pitchers is still understated. Lee right now should be mentioned among the top 5 starters in the game, and you could even make the case that he is better than Sabathia, but I believe most fans would still peg him as a notch below. Lee might not want to be overshadowed by all the Yankees stars, and that could end up being something that keeps him in Texas or looking at a dark horse contender.

In the end though I think the Yankees get their man thought I think it will cost them slightly more than Sabathia did. Lee is worth it though and he will go a long way to making fans forget A.J. Burnett if he can’t return to form.

To no one’s surprise the last couple years the Nationals have had trouble drawing a crowd, but that reached a new low last night as the Nationals set a franchise record no team wants to see. The scary thing is it could get a lot worse before it gets better. There is little doubt that the Nationals biggest problem is their lack of a winning product. And when your record over the last 3 years is a combined 180-293* (through yesterday’s game) it is not surprising that the Nationals attendance is where it is, despite playing in a major market. Unless the Nationals do something quick their attendance could begin to plummet. The Nationals attendance has been artificially high (in comparison with their record), due to the opening of the new Nats Park two years ago, the emergence of Ryan Zimmerman as one of the best players in the game, the signing of a 40 HR hitter in Adam Dunn, and the excitement for phenom pitcher Stephen Strasburg. Now the luster of the new Stadium is wearing off, and the team is still firmly in last place despite the new additions. And finally with Strasburg sidelined for the majority of next season the Nationals are staring at 2011 without a headliner.

Washington can talk about the fruits of their farm system all they want, this team won’t get better without bringing in outside talent. Now don’t get me wrong I like the young core built around Zimmerman, with guys like Ramos, Desmond, Bernadina, Espinosa and a promising young bullpen. But even at their peak potential they aren’t in Zimmerman’s class or like the Jason Heyward’s or Mike Stanton’s around the league. These aren’t franchise building blocks, but rather solid starting caliber complimentary players. Anyway you cut it fans aren’t going to be swiping their VISA card to watch complimentary players. Now there is a chance one or two of them turn into something more, and become All-Star caliber, but if that happens it will be a few years off. The Nationals desperately need a star player (or three) to add to this team.

Their search of star talent is going to be difficult this offseason to say the least. As it stands now the Nationals have just three star players, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg and Adam Dunn. Strasburg as I mentioned will be out next season, so not only does that affect them at the box office, but it will hurt their recruiting efforts as they pursue other top talent in free agency. To complicate matters further, Dunn is an impending free agent and while it is somewhat likely he will resign, if he tests the open market the Nationals could be left in the cold. While I was among those who looked for the Nationals to trade Dunn at the deadline, I firmly believe they have to resign Dunn. I wouldn’t have minded losing Dunn at the trade deadline if it brought in 2 or more good prospects since they could improve the Nats in other areas, and Washington would still have a chance to sign him as a free agent. Even if they missed out on him as a free agent a 2nd tiered option like Aubrey Huff or Adam LaRoche plus the prospect return would be enough value for the Nationals going forward. Now though the Nationals either resign Dunn, or end up with two draft picks. Draft picks might be nice, but they are even less of a sure thing and won’t help out Washington for another 3-5 years. Resigning Dunn is their only option, otherwise their fan attendance will plummet* (if they had traded Dunn, fan attendance would plummet, but that could have been in the long term best interest of the team).

In addition to resigning Dunn the Nats need to find a way to bring in more major league ready talent and it won’t be easy this year. There are only a few ‘star’ quality free agents available, and the Nationals could be a long shot for all of them. Cliff Lee would look nice in a Washington uniform, but there is about zero chance of him signing here. It might be marginally better odds to get one of the two real difference makers in the outfield (a position that the Nationals desperately need to improve), but Washington is still a long shot for both Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Outside of that the Nationals can get some small time temporary improvements, but not the star players they need. While they could try to trade for one or two, they would have to cut into some of the talent they’ve assembled to do so. The best asset the Nationals have to offer though is their checkbook, they have had a pretty low payroll since they’ve come to Washington and it might be worth seeing if some team is looking to move a big veteran contract or two. While the Nationals might end up overpaying for talent, it will allow them to keep their young core intact, while at the same time they build for the future.

The Deal: The Washington Nationals traded RHP Matt Capps and cash to the Twins for C Wilson Ramos (AAA) and LHP Joe Testa (AA):

The Nationals: The Nationals traded their lone All-Star Matt Capps in an effort to build up their system to hopefully begin to contend in the next couple of years. While the Nationals had control of Capps for another season they already have his replacement in rookie RHP Drew Storen and a number of solid bullpen options on their roster and in their system. In addition, a top quality closer like Capps is a bit of a luxury on a last place team like the Nationals. Washington did good to acquire a top prospect in Ramos as well as an additional young player. Ramos, who will be 23 next month, is just about Major League ready and could be up by September to begin to apprentice under Ivan Rodriguez. His offensive game has struggled some this year at AAA, but he is still highly considered in prospect circles. In addition he potentially fills a major offensive void in the Nationals current roster. While the Nationals have C Derrek Norris in the system he is 2-3 years away and could end up headlining a deal for the Nationals when he is closer to the major leagues, and Washington is ready to contend. As for the other player in the deal Testa, he isn’t considered a big prospect, but he is a lefty and could develop into a specialist. Washington kicked in $500K, but saved over $800K in the deal that they can add to their draft budget.

Twins: Minnesota was in a tough position, so far they had gotten by without Joe Nathan who is on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery, but their bullpen has struggled of late. Jon Rauch, had been getting the job done, but he has been hit hard this past month. Now with Capps and Rauch at the back end of the pen, the Twins should be in a better position going forward. Capps also helps the Twins next year in case Nathan comes back slow from the TJ surgery, and will come at a fair price. As for giving up Ramos, he was one of the Twins best trade chips, but he was never going to play regularly in Minnesota with Mauer there. They did get a year and a half of a good closer in return so it isn’t a truly bad trade for them.

Winner: The Nationals win here since Capps was redundant in Washington and they got a top quality prospect in return. It isn’t a huge loss for Minnesota, but they could miss having Ramos’s trade value in the future.

Whether you listened to the game on the radio, read the Strasburg live blog from the Washington Post, or watched the taped delay game on MASN (or did all three), two things were abundantly clear with Stephen Strasburg’s start. One he didn’t have his best stuff last night, a lot of pitches missed the zone, and he faced a number of 2-0 counts. The second thing that was clear was Strasburg’s worst stuff of this season was still good enough to completely shutdown the Rochester Red Wings lineup.

Strasburg’s line for the night was 6.1 innings pitched, with 9 strikeouts against 3 hits and 2 walks. Despite the Red Wings getting some solid contact and a few hits, they weren’t able to really get to Strasburg. Even without his best stuff, Strasburg was able to keep Rochester off the score board, which he has done in all three AAA games he has pitched.

Strasburg actually hurt some of his AAA stats with last night’s game as batters are now hitting .068 against him, up from .027. And now has 4 walks in 18.1 innings pitched in AAA. In all seriousness though, Strasburg has been nothing short of amazing, his 9 strikeouts last night give him a 22-4 strikeout to walk ratio in AAA, and in over two full games worth of batters he hasn’t allowed a single one to cross the plate. Strasburg’s AAA line stands at 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA, and his complete minor league numbers are just as impressive. He is 6-1 with a 0.89 ERA and a .123 batting average against. And in 40.1 innings he has allowed just 17 hits and 10 walks, while striking out 49 batters.

While Strasburg might not be able to put up those kind of numbers without his best stuff in the Majors, it is nice to see that he can dominate and make adjustments even when is game is a little off. If everything goes right, Strasburg should be up in the majors within 2 weeks, and if games like last night are any indication he has been well worth the wait for Nationals fans.