Brian From Pearl River, NY: 

-What are the Yankees chances for signing Cliff Lee?

I would peg the Yankees chances somewhere in the 40-45% range. As for the rest of his suitors I think the Rangers are a close 2nd somewhere in the 35-40% range, with the Nationals trailing at about 10%. For the remaining 10% I think is split between a number of potentially interested teams (Angel, Red Sox, etc.) that look like long shots (or at least longer shots) now but could become interested.

I think the Nationals can make the strongest case in regards to money, which might seem crazy considering the Yankees reputation with spending, but I believe that even they have their limits. The Nationals only have one player (Ryan Zimmerman) who is definitely part of their long term future making any significant amount of cash. Other players like Willingham and Dunn could be extended/resigned but they aren’t the cornerstones like Zimmerman. Two years ago the Nationals offered Mark Teixeira more money than anyone, so it wouldn’t shock me to see them go down that road again. Yankees might seem like they are made of money, but I don’t know if they are really willing to add a contract equal to or greater than Sabathia’s.

The Rangers can probably get competitive when it comes to money, but I’m sure it will be creative as well. They will likely try to keep Lee at roughly $20 million a year, but that might not be enough to keep him. Texas can offer Lee the comfort of knowing the organization and having a bright future. They are also the closest to his Arkansas home town, which could be a benefit. The Rangers though don’t have the infinite resources to keep Lee. Right now they are flush with money due to their postseason run, but the Rangers can’t base their contract to Lee completely on postseason revenues.

The Yankees of course have the best chance considering they have the need, money and prestige to offer to Lee. Although the Yankees contract offer could be slightly beaten by the Nationals (they won’t be able to offer $30 million a year or something outlandish like that), it won’t be outclassed. New York also offers almost guaranteed postseason appearances, and plenty of wonderful baseball history to fall back on. Also, it is a bit easier to lure free agents with guys like Jeter, A-Rod and Sabathia shilling for you, compared to Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and John Lannan. Lee could be swayed by playing with a collection of All-Stars, but it is possible (albeit slightly) that he might view that as a drawback.

Despite Cliff Lee being dominate these past three years and pitching a number of big playoff games, his stature of being one of the games elite pitchers is still understated. Lee right now should be mentioned among the top 5 starters in the game, and you could even make the case that he is better than Sabathia, but I believe most fans would still peg him as a notch below. Lee might not want to be overshadowed by all the Yankees stars, and that could end up being something that keeps him in Texas or looking at a dark horse contender.

In the end though I think the Yankees get their man thought I think it will cost them slightly more than Sabathia did. Lee is worth it though and he will go a long way to making fans forget A.J. Burnett if he can’t return to form.

Orioles Trade Tejada Again: The Baltimore Orioles traded 3B Miguel Tejada to the San Diego Padres for RHP Wynn Pelzer (AA).

Orioles: Baltimore did well cashing in on Tejada, especially considering he is in the midst of one of his worst offensive seasons. Pelzer is a solid pitching prospect and was ranked 7th in San Diego’s system by Baseball America before the start of the season. To get that quality of prospect for Tejada and $1 million is a quality return. Pelzer might never be a front line starter, but he is a pretty safe bet to become a back of the rotation starter. And while the O’s had to give up $1 million, they also saved a $1 million which they can put into their draft budget. The Orioles will replace Tejada with rookie Josh Bell, and this could be the first move in a rebuilding process that could see a number of Orioles changing teams over the next 2 days.

Padres: The fact that San Diego was willing to give up such a good prospect for a hitter like Tejada shows two things. One, the desperation of the Padres and two the complete weakness of the Padres offense. That all being said Tejada is an interesting acquisition since he has a lot of good history. It would not be shocking to see Tejada get hot these last two months and give the Padres solid production in their post season run. Tejada alone won’t fix the offense, but he is a nice start.

Winner: I think the Orioles won this deal just by getting a better price than other minor veterans like Peralta and Cantu.

The Rangers add Cantu to their infield: The Texas Rangers trade RHP Evan Reed (AA) and RHP Omar Poveda (AA) to the Florida Marlins for 1B Jorge Cantu and cash.

Rangers: Texas had been looking for more production out of their first base spot since they traded Justin Smoak in the Cliff Lee deal, and found a solid upgrade in Cantu. Cantu is having one of his worse years, but is still an upgrade over Chris Davis. Cantu also made sense for Texas because of his price tag. Given the Rangers financial situation it would have been extremely difficult to acquire anyone who cost additional money. With the Marlins picking up some cash, the Rangers will be able to fit Cantu under budget. Cantu isn’t a huge upgrade, but should help Texas’s playoff run.

Marlins: Florida has pretty much fallen out of the playoff race, so did well getting what they could for Cantu and saving a little money. Reed isn’t more than a future middle reliever, but Poveda could end up being a solid mid-rotation starter. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery so it will remain to be seen how he comes back from it. Poveda does have the potential to help the Marlins down the line.

Winner: I think the Rangers won this deal, because it really strengthens their playoff lineup immensely. Chris Davis has been a huge hole in their lineup and now the Rangers have found their upgrade.