There is a growing sentiment around the NFL and among pundits that you should draft your ‘Franchise’ quarterback first then build around him. This sentiment has grown even further with the immediate ‘success’ of rookie and young quarterbacks over the last two seasons. Now Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez are the poster boys for drafting quarterbacks in the first round, because their teams all went to the playoffs in their first year. This has caused the illogical belief that ‘franchise’ 1st round quarterbacks = success. While I’ve already dispelled the beliefs of 1st round quarterback success and that starting quarterbacks from day one is a good thing. I thought it was appropriate to delve a little deeper after the report that the Redskins may be looking to trade up for Sam Bradford.

Now I’m not arguing against the Redskins possibly changing their quarterbacks. I get it Jason Campbell is a restricted free agent, and has not led the Redskins to the promised land of multiple playoff appearances. I also understand that with a whole new G.M. and coaching staff that Campbell might not be in the long term future. And I’m fine with that, though I believe if that’s the case Campbell should be traded for draft picks and/or young players, and not just held as an apprenticeship for one season then allowed to walk. To me the situation is you either trade Campbell or sign him to a long term deal. Which although it may be shocking for some Redskins fans would be in the neighborhood of $65-70 million over 6 years. If Matt Cassel can get 6 years for $60 million last season, I think Campbell can easily trump that. While I’m okay with the Redskins going in a new direction, what I’m not okay with is the drafting of either Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen at the top of the first round and expecting them to be better than Jason Campbell either in year one or two. And the reason I know this to be false is just looking at the three poster boys and how they stacked up against Campbell.

While no one can argue that the Jets, Ravens and Falcons were better than the Redskins last year, I think you can make a strong case that Jason Campbell was better than Sanchez, Flacco, and Ryan.

Here are the stat lines of the four quarterbacks: It will go games, attempts, completions, Completion percentage, yards, TD’s, INT’s, sacks, and QB rating and yards per attempt

Campbell: 16/507/327/ 64.5/3,618/20/15/43/ 86.4/7.1

Flacco: 16/499/315/63.1/3,613/21/12/36/88.9/7.24

Ryan: 14*/451/263/58.3/2,916/22/14/19/80.9/6.5     *(one of Ryan’s games he left early in the first quarter)

Sanchez: 15/364/196/53.8/2,444/12/20/26/63.0/6.71

Now you can make a solid case that Flacco’s numbers are better than Campbell’s, but in reality they are basically a dead heat. And Campbell’s numbers were definitively better than Ryan’s and far superior to Sanchez’s. What’s more is that Campbell did more with less. We will get to personnel in a minute, but even some of these numbers are misleading like the 7 sack difference between Campbell and Flacco. Joe Flacco is a good young quarterback, but he is notorious for holding onto the ball too long which has inflated the Raven’s sack total allowed. Campbell on the other hand doesn’t have the quickest release by any means, but he does scramble some and avoided quite a few additional sacks. That gap in sacks should probably be closer to 15 than 7 given the two quarterbacks.

While we are talking about it offensive line is a good place to start in comparing the differences in these quarterbacks. The Redskins offensive line last season was one of the 3 or 4 worst in the NFL. And there are no signs that it will be any better next season. They are completely devoid of any young talented o-linemen (hint, hint), and did not really address the need in free agency. The Ravens, Falcons and Jets all have far superior offensive lines, that given the sack numbers would have done a much better job of protecting Campbell.

As for a ground game to take the heat off the quarterback, all you have to do is ask yourself which of the following groups don’t belong?A. Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, Leon Washington; B. Ray Rice, Willis McGahee; C. Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood, Jason Snelling; or D. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright, Quinton Ganther, and Marcus Mason (in fact Campbell was the 2nd leading rusher on the team). If you guessed D (which how could you not) you would be correct. The Redskins ground attack was so bad that they averaged under 4.0 yards a carry, and that includes Campbell who averaged over 5.0 yards in 46 carries. The Jets, Ravens and Falcons all had at least two guys well over the 4.0 yard mark and easily surpassed that as a team as well. Injury can’t be the Redskins excuse either since the Falcons were without Turner for 5 games last season, and the Jets were without Washington for over half the season. And while the offensive line (or lack there of) was an issue for the Skins, they didn’t have the talent of those other teams.

Next up the pass catchers: The Redskins were without their top receiving threat TE Chris Cooley for over half the season, but his loss was only minimally felt because back up Fred Davis put together a nice year (had they both been there it would have been a little better, but it wasn’t going to make them an elite passing attack). Santana Moss is miscast as the Skins top wideout, and is much better suited as a slot receiver. Behind him it doesn’t get much better as Antwan Randle-El, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly all had average to below average seasons. Now 85 balls were split among the Redskins 5 running backs and the fullback, but none are classified as dynamic pass catchers. And that number is as high as it is because Campbell had to frequently dump the ball off, due to the pass rush.

The Falcons on the other hand have a top notch receiver in Roddy White and one of the best pass catching tight ends in Tony Gonzalez. Also 2nd receiver Michael Jenkins is better than any 2nd receiver the Redskins had. The Falcons also have decent pass catching running backs in Norwood and Snelling (though their numbers were down last year, due in part to Ryan’s numbers being down). Atlanta doesn’t have the pass catching depth of the Skins, but have better starting play makers.

The Jets don’t have a dynamic receiving corps but they are pretty decent. Edwards, Keller and Cotchery make up a good starting group. Though he missed most of the year, Leon Washington is a far superior weapon out of the backfield to any of the Skins backs. The overall numbers were down for the Jets receivers, but the talent is not.

The Ravens do have a significant dearth of pass catchers behind number one Derrick Mason and tight end Todd Heap, but their 2nd and 3rd receivers (Mark Clayton and Kelly Washington) still out performed the Skins. In addition Ray Rice was a true two way threat last season and was almost as dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield as he was taking a hand-off.

When it comes to weapons the Redskins might not be as far behind as they are in the running game or along the offensive line, but they aren’t an elite group either.

Finally that brings us to defense. Which has a greater effect on the offense’s play than we give it credit. Not only is the defense responsible for shutting opponents down, but they are crucial when it comes to the field position battle. The Redskins defense was a top 10 unit in name and in yards allowed, but dropped to 15th in total points. While its a solid, even good unit, it is not a play making unit like the Ravens or Jets. Their defenses create turnovers (and their own points taking pressure off the offense), giving their offenses better field position as well as momentum. Which can’t be understated. Those attacking ball hawking defense’s, are the true biggest key to winning in the NFL, whether they have an elite quarterback (Drew Brees) or a bad rookie quarterback (Sanchez) they consistently lead their teams to success.

Now this article isn’t to criticize the ‘poster boys’, Ryan, Flacco and Sanchez. It could very well end up that all three of these quarterbacks are better then Jason Campbell, and could have long term success. But the fact of the matter is right now, Campbell has shown that he can do more with a lot less. I don’t question any of their decisions to draft a quarterback (though I’m still very wary of Mark Sanchez), since they all had a significant need at the position and had a good nucleus set around him. The Redskins don’t have that to give a rookie quarterback, as they are deficient in every area. If Campbell can out perform these young guns, why do we think that Sam Bradford or Jimmy Claussen will be better than that. Personally I like both Ryan and Flacco more than Bradford or Claussen. Ryan and Flacco had more experience, arm strength, came from better systems and I think better decision making than either Bradford or Claussen. Now i’m not saying Bradford or Claussen aren’t good quarterbacks, but I don’t think they can jump into a system from day one.

If the Redskins were to draft either Bradford or Clausen they can expect to pay them in the neighborhood of $60-78 million over the next 6 seasons (if they trade up to the top pick it will be northwards of $75 million). I would much rather give that money to Campbell who I know can have some success in this league over a rookie who is unproven. Campbell these last two seasons has been pretty good despite going through numerous coaching staff changes/system changes in his career and not having much offensive talent surrounding him. I would say for at least the first 3 years of the next six Campbell will out produce any rookie 1st round quarterback. And that’s if Bradford/Clausen progress like Ryan/Flacco, they could just as easily become the next Jamarcus Russell or Alex Smith. Also of course by keeping Campbell you can then use the 4th pick (hopefully to trade back to stock pile picks) to improve the offensive line.

The truth is drafting a first round quarterback is always risky, and there will always be a bust factor, but you can minimize that by either being patient or by have a good foundation for them to be apart of. The other truth is we need to stop giving so much weight to how good a quarterback is by his win-loss record. We need to judge players by their numbers and what they have around them. Football always has and always will be a team game, and good and great teams will always be successful regardless of their quarterback.