Dan from New York, NY:

-What three players helped and hurt their draft stock the most during this week’s Senior Bowl practice?

Players That Helped Themselves:

Colin Kaepernick, QB:

Kaepernick came into the Senior Bowl as a raw prospect and maybe a late round pick (with no guarantees), and now he is leaving this week as a potential 2nd or 3rd round pick. Kaepernick, was by far the best looking quarterback on either side this week, and really proved his doubters wrong. Despite not having experience in a Pro Style system, Kaepernick did a nice job with his accuracy this week and even did alright taking snaps from center. He is still a developmental quarterback, but he looks like more of a sure thing now. Give Kaepernick a year or two and you could have a Franchise quarterback in the making.

Phil Taylor, DT:

Taylor really improved his stock this week, after coming in as one of the games biggest enigmas. While he was thought to be a potential nose tackle at the next level his draft stock seemed to be anywhere from the 3rd-5th round. There was a major concern that Taylor would come into the week overweight and out of shape, but that proved to be an unnecessary fear as he came in at 337 lbs. and in good shape. Taylor followed up the weigh in with a fantastic week of practice. He raised his draft stock to well into the 2nd round and should be a starting nose tackle from day one.

Danny Watkins, OG:

Watkins was known to be a mauler in college, but he would be moving inside this week and would have to answer questions about his football I.Q., age and experience. Watkins proved that he could handle the interior line, and should be able to start right away (negating the age issue). Watkins should be one of the top guards off the board and should go no lower than mid-third round.

Players That Hurt Themselves:

Jake Locker, QB:

The knock on Locker had always been his accuracy, but his supporters said that much of that was due to the lack of talent he had around him, and all he needed was a better supporting cast and Locker would shine. Well Locker was on a team of All-Stars this week, and went against defenses that couldn’t blitz, use press coverage or play any coverage except Cover 1 or 2. Despite all those advantages Locker looked even worse this week. He has really dropped in terms of stock and has to answer a lot of questions.

Andy Dalton, QB:

Dalton came in as a boarder line 2nd or 3rd round pick, and didn’t show anything to show that he deserves that stock grade. Dalton looked pretty lost this week and looks at best as a backup quarterback.

Kris O’Dowd, C:

O’Dowd came into the week as the 2nd rated center in this class, but he was completely dominated all week in practice. While he looked like a potential future starting center last season, he looked no more than a backup this week and even that could be generous. O’Dowd really fell with his Senior Bowl week and will now be in the 6th-7th round range.

Meg from Arlington, Va:

-Since the Redskins need to upgrade their quarterback play shouldn’t they use their top pick in the draft to grab a franchise quarterback?

In both my latest mock draft and Redskins Offseason Strategy I was against the Redskins taking a quarterback in the first two rounds. I know my strategy goes against conventional wisdom, of adding a ‘franchise’ caliber quarterback, but it really isn’t hard to show how that is a bad idea. Last offseason the Redskins added an ‘elite, franchise’ quarterback in Donovan McNabb, and in many ways the Redskins got worse (yes they had two more wins, but their defense is in shambles now, and the offense isn’t much better). Now at the time they traded for him, every media outlet and fan lauded it as a brilliant move. And yet one year later the Redskins are further away from having the quarterback of their future. McNabb cost the Redskins two draft picks (a high 2nd and a high 4th), which really would be the equivalent  of a 1st rounder. If Donovan McNabb isn’t the answer to the Redskins quarterback and offensive woes, what exactly makes people believe that Gabbert/Newton/Mallett/Locker are that answer?

Although I do like all four of those quarterbacks for various reasons, and believe if put in the right situation/system all four can be successful, what I do know is that the Redskins aren’t that situation. Contrary to popular belief it isn’t a great idea to start rookie quarterbacks right off the bat. I know people point to the success of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Sam Bradford (and will for some reason use Mark Sanchez as an example), but they also have a lot of other things going for them than just their first round status. Also, that is just cherry picking the success stories and ignoring all the failed 1st round quarterbacks of the last 10 years (the majority of which did start from day one or a majority of that season).

There is no proven litmus test for what makes a successful 1st round quarterback (or elite quarterback in general), but one thing the majority have is developmental time. With the exception of P. Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco, the best quarterbacks around the league spent at least half of their rookie season on the bench. Now it is very well possible that Sam Bradford will join those ranks (it is quite a long ways for Mark Sanchez to be in that category), but nothing is guaranteed after one season. And for as good as Bradford is for a rookie, by quarterback standards his year was very average. The Rams found success with an average quarterback, because of Stephen Jackson, a good offensive line and a vastly improved defense (not to mention playing in the worst division in the NFL).

Similar to Bradford, the other four quarterbacks who started as rookies went in with a number of quality offensive weapons (not to mention in some instances elite defenses). Flacco didn’t have great weapons until this season, but he had a very good running game as well as a top notch offensive line (and one of those elite defenses). Roethlisberger, not only had an Championship caliber defense, but they had Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley in the backfield, and Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, and Plaxico Burress to throw to. Matt Ryan didn’t have the greatest defense, but a solid offensive line and big time stars at RB and WR (Michael Turner and Roddy White) helped make his transition easier.  Peyton Manning put up solid numbers with Marshall Faulk, Mavin Harrison, and behind a line anchored by Tareik Glenn, but they still finished 3-13.

So if you want the Redskins to draft a quarterback, you better be prepared to sit him for a year or two, otherwise you will just be stunting his growth. Yes it is possible for young quarterbacks to lead teams deep into the playoffs, but they always have elite talent around them. That wouldn’t even be close to the case for the Redskins, who in reality need to replace at least 12 starters (it should be more like 16). This team isn’t close to competing even if it had the current version of Manning/Roethlisberger/Ryan at the helm, much less their rookie version.

Now I don’t think the Redskins should ignore the quarterback position entirely, as I’d have them take one in the mid-rounds (assuming they add draft picks in those rounds), but they under no circumstances should take one in the first round. Develop a young arm for the future, but build a franchise that he can grow to lead. If they draft a quarterback now, they will set themselves back from improving the team, and that is what is most important.

Paul from Green Bay, WI:

-With 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, who is your early prediction for the Super Bowl match-up and winner?  What do you think the odds are for a wild card vs. wild card Super Bowl?

As it stands now my Super Bowl prediction is the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Atlanta Falcons. My confidence level in that prediction is 50/50 at best.

Although a wild card vs wild card Super Bowl would be fun to watch I just don’t see it happening. For one thing we are already down one of top Wild Card teams, the New Orleans Saints. While the remaining Wild Card teams, the Jets, Ravens, and Packers all have the ability to make the big game they will each have to win two more games on the road (Ravens technically could have a home game if the Jets win as well). I just don’t know if either of the Ravens or the Jets could beat both the Patriots and the Steelers on the road and advance to the Super Bowl, despite being extremely talented teams. Even if one of them do run the gauntlet, they would need the Packers to beat the Falcons and likely the Bears, to go to the Super Bowl.

Here is how I see  each team’s playoff chances going forward:

New England Patriots: It is hard to bet against the New England Patriots, and with home field advantage it won’t be easy for anyone to knock them off, but they do have some holes in their game. While Tom Brady and his offensive line are among the best in the game, New England doesn’t have the skill players to match up with elite defenses. While that weakness didn’t really slow the Patriots down during the season, the playoffs could be a different ball game. Also, Brady struggles against pressure if you can get to him early and New England will play against 2 of the 3 best blitzing teams in the NFL. New England’s defense is good, but they aren’t on the same level as the other playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is my favorite because they have talent at every position, and a balanced offense and defense. Roethlisberger is probably the 2nd best quarterback left in the playoffs and he has a whole host of weapons at his disposal. The Steelers offensive line is their biggest weakness, but on the plus side they have the best quarterback in the NFL in dealing with pressure. Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the league, and is absolutely dominate against the run.

Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore is built very similarly to the Steelers, and they do have the talent on both offense and defense to make a significant run, but having to go on the road won’t be easy.

New York Jets: New York might be the 6th seed, but they have the defense, offensive line, running backs, and receivers capable of winning a Super Bowl, but they lack the quarterback. While at times Mark Sanchez has flashed the ability of being franchise quarterback, more often then not his play is close to that of a bust. If Sanchez has at least an average game the Jets can win, if his play is below average it could get ugly.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are the number 1 seed in the NFC, and with that have a huge advantage. The Falcons and Matt Ryan are nearly unbeatable at home, so having home field very well could propel the Falcons to the Super Bowl. Atlanta has a balanced rushing and passing attack, that really no team has been able to stop this season. The Falcons defense isn’t highly thought of, but they will surprise you. They are tenacious at the point of attack, and get after the quarterback with the best of them.

Chicago Bears: Chicago has been a surprising team all year, and an unexpected 2 seed in the NFC. They have a good offense overall, but their offensive line is going to be their downfall. The Bears have a solid enough defense, but I wouldn’t put it on the elite level.

Seattle Seahawks: No one gave Seattle any chance to make it this far, but they played a great game against the Saints, and proved they can play with anyone. They won’t be at home anymore so Seattle will have to prove they can do it on the road. While I wouldn’t count them out just yet, I don’t think Seattle is a threat for the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers next to the Falcons I think have the best chance to win the Super Bowl. They will have to go on the road for two games, which might be too much for them to handle. The Packers have a good offense led by Aaron Rodgers that can score on anyone. On defense the Packers will get burned at times, but they do have one of the most dominating defensive players in the league, in Cliff Matthews Jr. It is an uphill climb for the Packers, but with Rodgers and Mathews they at least have a shot.

Ben from Pittsburgh, PA:

-After last week’s exciting shootout overtime, do you think the Winter Classic will live up to the drama for HBO two games in a row? Or will one team blow out the other team?

Everyone knows when the Caps and Pens play they are going to see a ‘classic’ game, that will be talked about until their next meeting. While I believe that is typically the case, don’t be surprised if the ‘Winter Classic’ doesn’t live up to its billing. The game will be exciting and feature a number of the NHL’s top players, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see this game be out of reach by the mid-2nd period. Who will be the team in control you ask?

That I believe is an easier question, as I like the Penguins odds in this matchup. Now I realize most people think that Alexander Ovechkin is the league’s best player, but Sidney Crosby is once again showing that he is not only the superior all-around player, but even a better scorer. Crosby is leading the league in points this season and is once again showing his leadership, that has helped transform the Penguins into one of the leagues best teams.

In addition to the Penguins winning the Crosby-Ovechkin debate, they are just a deeper and more well-rounded team. Pittsburgh and Washington both have additional offensive weapons to their stars, but while the Capitals players are more well known, the Penguins are simply deeper and more all-around players. Pittsburgh also has much better defensive and goalie play than the Capitals and have a special teams penalty killing unit among the best in the NHL. The Penguins could also get and offensive (as well as a defensive and special teams boost) if injured forward Jordan Staal returns for the Winter Classic like he planned. Staal is the Pens third best offensive player when healthy, and also one of their best two-way forwards. Even if he does play he might not be at 100%, but his return should be a boost on the ice and for team morale.

In my book the Pens have the superior leadership (on the ice and on the bench), personnel, and will have the hometown crowd with them as well. While Capitals fans will make their way up to Pittsburgh, the Penguins will have the crowd, and it will likely be very loud and a huge boost to the Pens.

With the talent, and crowd in their favor I like the Penguins odds not only to win, but really control this game. Their balance and previous experience (played in the first Winter Classic in Buffalo), should give them an advantage. Whatever happens though it will be a fun game to watch and good for the sport of hockey.