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Going into the season it looked as though the Baltimore Orioles would be sellers this year, but after 39 games (or 1/4th the season), the Orioles are tied with the Dodgers with the most wins. Now there is still a long way to go, and it is unclear how long the Orioles can keep this up in the ultra competitive AL East, but what’s clear is that the Orioles are very likely to be buyers this summer rather than sellers.

Now conventional wisdom for a surprisingly contending team would be to wait for the deadline before making any moves to ensure that they are still in the race. The problem with that philosophy is that by waiting that long it’s possible that you are missing out on wins that could be crucial come September. If you traded for a player on May 31st as opposed to July 31st you’d have that player for an additional 50+ games (52 for the Orioles). From the Orioles perspective that is a difference of having a player for 110 games or 58 games. Now of course there is added risk as perhaps even having the player for the remaining 4 months of the season, won’t be enough to maintain the Orioles in the playoff chase, but it could be a risk worth taking. It only makes sense for Baltimore if the player they are acquiring is under team control and can help the Orioles beyond this year, meaning for now rental players are out.

Given the Orioles weakened farm system and them likely avoiding rental players they won’t likely be able to acquire a true impact talent, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get better. While pitching is the Orioles greater need right now, the price of pitching (especially non-rental players) is probably prohibitive for the Orioles. Baltimore may be able to find a moderate pitching upgrade or two for cheap at the deadline, but it will be far harder to try to buy pitching now, with so few teams really ‘selling’ right now. Instead the Orioles should attempt to find an upgrade at perhaps their weakest position, third base.

Not only are Mark Reynolds and Wilson Betemit leaving much to be desired offensively, but their combined defense (or lack there of) has cost the Orioles dearly. If the Orioles improved just slightly-moderately in both of these areas it would be a nice boost to their team. And given where the bar is set now, it won’t be hard to overcome. Adding a third baseman could also help the production at DH, by moving Betemit and Reynolds there. Betemit despite being a switch hitter, has always had more success hitting right handed pitchers, and Reynolds hits lefties better than righties. Platooning them would be a good way to increase the Orioles offensive production. And having their bats in the line-up at a position where they can’t hurt you defensively, will make the Orioles pitching staff very happy.

Now the question becomes who might be available for the Orioles to acquire. Most of the top third basemen are locked up long term, and aren’t going any where. Many of the 2nd tier third basemen are also likely not to be on the market, but there is one name out there that makes some sense, and that is the Padres Chase Headley.

Why Headley Should Be Available:

Few teams are really looking to sell at this point in the season, but the Padres should be one of them. San Diego has the second worst record in baseball, and currently are 11.5 games out of first place, in what is by no means a tough division. San Diego has a bright future with one of the best minor league systems (and some good young talent at the major league level as well). Unfortunately most of their prospects are still a couple years away, so they are firmly in rebuilding mode.

Headley is a guy who will likely be moved in an effort to free up a little money and to make room for one of the Padres top young prospects, James Darnell. By trading Headley now the Padres can save about $2.4 million if they were to trade Headley now as opposed to $1.7 million if they were to wait till July 31st. Though the biggest benefit would be to give Darnell the regular at bats that he needs.

Why Headley Makes Sense for the Orioles:

Chase Headley makes perfect sense for the Orioles despite not being a traditional power hitting third baseman. He’s in his 2nd of 4 arbitration years, so Baltimore, meaning the Orioles would have him for the next three post season runs. Also his arbitration figures shouldn’t be too much, given that he isn’t some top notch offensive force. His lack of glowing offensive numbers and the fact that most contenders are set at the hot corner, should keep his trade value reasonable as well.

The first thing that stands out for Headley is his defensive value. While Reynolds and Betemit are among the league’s worst defenders at third base, Headley’s among the league’s best. Two year’s ago Headley was in the mix for a Gold Glove award, and currently he’s putting together another GG caliber year. Adding his range and defensive ability next to J.J. Hardy is going to turn that left side of the infield into an elite unit.

Headley also offers an offensive upgrade. While some traditionalists will point to Mark Reynolds 30-40 HR power as something that Headley will struggle to match 50% of, he’s a better offensive weapon than Reynolds. Headley’s slash line of .254/.388/.438 is better than both Reynolds’ .191/.324/.337 and Betemit’s .232/.294/.465. And while we’ve seen both Betemit and Reynolds put up better numbers in recent years, their potential improvement over Headley doesn’t warrant their gloves at third (remember the O’s can take advantage of their bats getting hot at the DH spot). Headley, who is a switch hitter, hits both righties and lefties fairly well, and offers decent speed on the base paths.

What’s most impressive about Headley is the potential he could have once he gets out of Petco Park. For his career Headley has hit .231/.326/.339 at home, while hitting .301/.365/.446 on the road. Over the last two year’s his OPS road numbers are even more impressive, with an .864 (which would have ranked 3rd among third basemen if it was a full season number) last year and a current mark of .933. That is a major difference in offensive production, and could see Headley’s numbers skyrocket once he leaves Petco. His numbers would probably even see a greater boost by moving to Camden Yards which is one of the better offensive parks.

What Will It Cost?:

This is the major question for the Orioles as they can’t afford to overpay for Headley. Now the Orioles will have to give up something of value to land Headley, and I think the most workable deal would be something in the neighborhood of:

OF Xavier Avery: With Nolan Reimold and Endy Chavez on the D.L. right now the Orioles might not be so willing to move Avery, but long term it makes sense. Assuming Reimold gets healthy, the O’s outfield is pretty well set going forward, leaving little room for Avery. From the Padres perspective, Avery could be a leadoff hitter and left fielder for them. Now on most teams that would be a bad fit to have Avery in LF, but given how spacious Petco is, Avery could make sense there.

SP Tim Berry: Berry was a former prep standout from the San Diego area who fell in the draft due to injury. He looks to be back now and has nice upside, though he is a couple years away. He’s just 21 and left handed, which is one of the few weak areas for the Padres. He’s a solid 2nd piece to the deal, and is the type of guy who could payoff well into the future.

1B Tyler Townsend: The Orioles have some depth here so they could afford to trade a solid power prospect in Townsend. With the Padres trading away Anthony Rizzo this offseason, they really lack any minor league 1B prospects. He’d be a nice 3rd piece for them to pick-up in this deal.

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By Guest Blogger John Manuel:

Its the beginning of May and the O’s are sitting at 16-9 and one game out of first place.  Usually by now we are talking about their continued lack of talent or player development.  After Wednesday night’s 5-0 shutout win over the Yankees, the Baltimore Orioles finally are showing something.

Just wondering how long it takes before the Buster Olneys and Ken Rosenthals of the baseball world will catch on.  No need to discuss the previous say 15 years, but so far this one has been great to watch.  I know they can tailspin down any minute but lets enjoy while we sit 2 1/2 games ahead of the $200 million Yankees.

One man who should not be forgotten after the great start is former GM Andy MacPhail.  I will admit at points last year I was hoping he would leave at the end of 2011, but what he pulled off late in the season has to be commended.  First, he dealt Koji Uehara for two solid pieces of this year’s strong start, Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter.  Davis has been solid at first and seems to be getting more confident each game as a hitter.  Hunter has not been spectacular but has easily filled in as a middle of the rotation starter who can give you at least 5-6 innings a start.

Then MacPhail fleeced the Rangers again at the deadline and gave them 2-year fan favorite Mike Gonzalez and got in return Pedro Strop.  Strop has been a major factor in Baltimore’s bullpen domination so far.  These are the moves that can start a change in an organization.  O’s fans should be thanking Andy MacPhail for not going out as a lame duck GM last season.

After MacPhail decided to leave, the Orioles needed a new person to make baseball decisions.  After interviewing multiple up and coming baseball minds, Peter Angelos shocked the baseball world and brought Dan Duquette back into the majors.  The move was seen as another poor one by Angelos.  Duquette took a passive approach towards the big money free agents and quickly took some flack.  It was the Orioles continuing the moves of the Orioles of the past 15 years.  The ghost of the Albert Belle signing once again was visible over the warehouse.

Duquette chose to bring in “exciting” free agents like Wilson Betemit and Darren O’Day and travel across the ocean to get Wei-Ye Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada instead of making serious runs at Prince Fielder or CJ Wilson.  And Orioles fans once again began to count down till Ravens training camp.  Then he made a move that was questioned (by me included at the time) and brought many fans to rock bottom.  Dealing their most solid starter of the past 5 years Jeremy Guthrie to Colorado for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.  Duquette was crushed for such little return for Guthrie.

Forward to now.  Hammel has been outstanding, Chen solid and better than anyone could have expected, O’Day and Lindstrom have ERA’s of 0.71 and 0.00 and Betemit has been a better option than pathetic third baseman Mark Reynolds.

And remember this from Sunday.  O’s fans have to be happy with what we have got from Dan Duquette and his player personnel crew so far. 

I will be honest I had this team pegged for maybe 70 wins, and who knows, maybe that’s where they end up.  What I should have thought about in March was who was in the dugout.  Buck Showalter is a winner.  He is one of those coaches or managers who you just don’t see having back to back bad seasons.  It didn’t happen in New York, it didn’t happen in Arizona and it didn’t happen in Texas.  And although he hasn’t won a World Series he has gotten his teams to that level.

Thank god Bobby Valentine turned the O’s down.  And it was great to see Joe Girardi sitting in the losing dugout the past two nights.  MacPhail and Angelos both should get credit for getting Buck to Camden Yards.  It was a huge get for a bad organization at the time.  It makes me feel more confident knowing that a successful baseball person like Buck Showalter saw something in the Orioles to take the job almost two years ago.

Where will this season go?  The starting pitching will need to hold up and that is a strong challenge.  Staying healthy will be key but hopefully guys like Chris Tillman and Brad Bergeson see what’s going on the major league level, get going and add some starting depth.  Plus, I think we will see the Dylan Bundy machine sooner than later.  I’ve heard too many experts say that he is too good not to be to the majors this season.  The bullpen has been rock solid.  Even with a short loss of Jim Johnson, they stayed strong.  As long as the starters can go innings and not wear them out it should continue to be a strong suit.

The lineup does scare me down the road if they lost a Wieters or Jones, both on their way to All Star status.  Reynolds is a disaster, Nick Johnson finally got a hit and Nolan Reimold has been a monster but can’t stay in the lineup.  Next off-season I think they will look at add offense including the start of Manny Machado’s pro career.  All in all I an thrilled with the start and hopefully the can go into Boston and shut them down like the Yankees.  Sorry to Bobby Andino I should have mentioned you in this, you have been great also.

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1. Sign Prince Fielder:

I know, I know it is cliche, but why not? You have a perfect storm situation here. Where most of the medium to big market teams, either don’t have the need or money and there happens to be another big name slugging first baseman on the market in Albert Pujols. Of the teams rumored to be in the Fielder market, they all have reasons why Fielder might not end up there.

Cubs: The Cubs are a team that is still stuck with a number of bad contracts, and has little in the way of future talent right now.

Nationals: They say they are satisfied with their internal options (though I’m not fully believing it)

Blue Jays: Toronto can be a tough sell, and they just don’t have the financial resources of some of the other teams.

Mariners: Lefty power can play well there, but it is still a pitchers park, and Fielder will have little in the way of protection there.

Rangers: It sounds great on paper, but Hamilton, Kinsler and Napoli are all free agents after next year, and Nelson Cruz the year after. Not to mention if C.J. Wilson leaves they need to find some pitching.

The Orioles along with the Nationals are the best fit in terms of future talent, payroll flexibility and need. Baltimore also has the advantage of being able to use Fielder as a DH late in his career which should help alleviate any concerns about signing him long term. Fielder is exactly the kind of impact bat that Baltimore needs, as his ability to take a walk is sorely lacking in the Orioles lineup. As for Mark Reynolds he could go back to third, or more likely see most of his time at DH. Reynolds could also be trade bait this offseason or by July 31st, and shouldn’t pose an impediment to a Fielder deal. It won’t be the easiest deal for the Orioles to swallow, but he gives them the mega-star that will bring the fans out to see him, and someone who is young enough to still be in the prime of his career when some of their top prospects are ready in 2 or 3 years.

2. Trade for Gordon Beckham:

Gordon Beckham had another disappointing year in Chicago and while they say they want to give him another shot, this is a team that needs to make some changes if they hope to compete. The Central is tough enough with the Tigers and Indians already above the White Sox, and Chicago should be wary of both the Royals and Twins, both have very talented farm systems and could pass the White Sox in a hurry. By dealing Beckham the White Sox would be selling low, but they should be able to get a pair of quality prospects in returns, as well as free up a starting job for a free agent upgrade.

For the Orioles, Beckham is a young, cost controlled infielder who could use a change of scenery. He’s versatile, and can help at third base and short stop as needed, in addition to his primary role of Brian Roberts security blanket. Roberts is a huge question mark for the Orioles going forward, and if he’s not healthy they need to get another viable option in there. Right now the farm system is about two years away from producing anyone who could take over, so outside help is needed. Signing a free agent is possible, but Baltimore should spend their money elsewhere.

Beckham should come at a reasonable price, and can give Baltimore hopefully another young piece to build around. While his offense is lagging, his above-average defense will be a welcome sight to the Orioles. He and J.J. Hardy would form an impressive double-play combo, and would shore up the middle of the infield for the next few years.

3. Extend or Trade Adam Jones:

Now I love Adam Jones, and think that he is developing into a good center fielder. But he only has two years remaining before free agency, and now is the time to either sign him long term or deal him for prospects. It’s a razor thin free agent market for center fielders this year, and more than a few teams looking for an upgrade.

While it would be tough to see him leave, its the right move if he isn’t willing to stay in Baltimore long term (at a reasonable rate). The Orioles can’t afford to lose him in two years and get nothing in return, and if they wait till next offseason, his trade value is greatly diminished since he’d only have one year remaining until free agency. As for waiting until the trade deadline, the Orioles run the risk that few-none of the contending teams need a center fielder. Also, if Jones misses significant time due to injury, his trade value would plummet as well. It would also be a negative story that would hang over the club’s head all throughout  the season.

Jones might not garner the Orioles any major prospects, but it would net them 3-4 really good to good prospects. Now re-signing Jones should be the Orioles first choice, but if he doesn’t resign or is asking for too much, a deal should be in the works.

Now I love J.J. Hardy and think that he has been a great addition to the Baltimore Orioles, but in the end trading him might be their best move. I understand the appeal in resigning him, since it can lockup one of the hardest positions to fill on the diamond with a pretty good player, until the Orioles top prospect Manny Machado is ready. But the problem with that is you waste perhaps your best trade chip, and while it does make the Orioles a better team for the next couple of years. If you make the right move you can land far more value, over a longer period of time.

The Orioles have already ‘won’ their offseason trade for Hardy, where they sent Brent Jacobson and Jim Hoey to the Twins for Hardy and Brendan Harris. Now they can take a victory lap by dealing Hardy for multiple pieces. Right now a number of contenders could use a serious upgrade at shortstop, including the Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Braves and Rays. And for some teams like the Pirates, Giants, Cardinals, and Rays the fact that he is a free agent in the offseason could be for the best as these teams aren’t looking to clutter up their payroll books. The Cards, Brewers, and Pirates are all looking to make a strong push this year and could look to make a splash. With Jose Reyes now looking like he is staying in New York, Hardy becomes far and away the best shortstop available.

Here are some possible trade scenarios with these various teams:

Cardinals: 1B/OF Allen Craig, LHP Jon Gast and SS Ryan Jackson

Craig is often overlooked, but he offers good power and is a solid defender at 1B, and passable in the OF. He might never be a star, but he could be a solid 1B/LF/DH option that would give the O’s a ton of flexibility. Gast is a lefty with some upside and while I wouldn’t consider him an ace, he could develop into a nice mid-rotation starter. Jackson could be a cheap stop gap for the O’s next year as they wait for Machado, long term he is at best a UTL guy.

Brewers: RHP Cody Scarpetta and 1B/3B Mat Gamel

The Brewers don’t have much in their system right now, but the O’s could still find some value. Scarpetta is a good solid starter who has a chance to still develop into a number 2 pitcher (more likely a number 3), while Gamel is a big time power prospect. Gamel is probably best suited for DH duty as his defense at 3B is pretty bad. He is another cheap power guy and could be a 25-30 HR guy with a good average.

Pirates: CF Starling Marte, UTL Brandon Wood, LHP Colton Cain

Marte is a big time prospect, though he’s not really a need for the O’s as they have Adam Jones. He could potentially move to a a corner though and if not is still really young to offer re-trade value. Cain hasn’t lived up to his draft bonus promise just yet, but he’s a young lefty with potential and you can never have enough of those. Wood is mainly here to give the O’s a SS option for the next couple of years, but he could be a good UTL player for them as well.

Giants: 3B/1B Chris Dominguez, RHP Henry Sosa, LF Thomas Neal

Dominguez could give the Orioles their 3B of the future and at worst should be a 1B or DH for them. He’s got a good bat and might only need one more year in the minors. Sosa was once one of the Giants top pitching prospects, but his value took a tumble last season. He’s seemed to right the ship this year and could be a back of the rotation starter. Neal also has fallen down the ranks of Giants prospects, but he still appears to be a starting caliber LF, despite the drop in power numbers.

Reds: 1B Yonder Alonso

This could be a good straight up trade for both teams, as the Reds have a stuck top prospect in Alonso and the Orioles need some pop at 1B/DH. The Reds have begun to hurt the value of Alonso by holding on to him this long (Joey Votto isn’t going anywhere) and then trying him in LF. It might be a rental for the Reds, but they’d get draft pick compensation and it would fill a huge hole that they have.

Braves: RHP Arodys Viscaino, LHP Carlos Perez, 2B Phil Gosselin

This is an upside trade for the Orioles as Viscaino and Perez both have big time potentials, but are far from sure things. Viscaino is a lot closer to the majors, but he still might need two years. Perez could need more like 3-4 years, but the potential is worth it. Both pitchers could be 2′s or 3′s at the next level, but you are going to have to wait for them. Gosselin is a UTL type who could move quickly through the minors and would be a solid final piece to this deal. The Orioles would probably need to kick in a reliever to make this deal work, but given the Braves pitching prospects, they would make a great trade partner.

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Among Orioles fans Jeremy Guthrie is an interesting case. On one hand he has been a very durable pitcher, who pitches well nearly every time he takes the mound. While on the other hand he hasn’t put up the win totals you’d expect to see from one of the team’s top pitchers. The reality is pretty much in between those two viewpoints, as Guthrie is a solid-good pitcher, but not a great one or an ace. Something else that is hopefully becoming abundantly clear to O’s fans (and hopefully the team) is that Guthrie should be actively shopped on the open market.

Now I know some O’s fans will want to hang on to Guthrie and not open another hole up in the rotation, but I feel that is a lot of sentimental value, and not based on baseball fact. Guthrie was a late bloomer and is 32 this season, and will be a free agent after 2012 when he is 33. He isn’t really part of the Orioles youth movement and really can’t be counted on for too many years going forward. Also, he is just an above average pitcher and not some elite ace, so while he’ll be missed it won’t exactly be a major blow to the O’s.

While Guthrie isn’t a stud pitcher he will have a fair bit of value if the Orioles look to shop him before the Trade Deadline. Guthrie is under control for another year beyond this season so a team would get help for two playoff runs. In addition Guthrie comes at a reduced rate of under $6 million this year (so roughly $2.5 for the rest of the year), and probably at most $7.5 million next year in Arbitration. Most pitchers of Guthrie’s caliber would command $9 million + a year, so a team could view it as a pretty big savings. Although his low win total will be a knock on him, having an ERA under 4.00 in 4 of the 5 years he has been a starter is fairly impressive. What’s even more impressive is that he has done that despite playing in the American League East. Guthrie is a classic strike thrower without being a true strikeout pitcher, and should be seen as a 3 or a 4 on most teams.

While it might seem that the O’s wouldn’t get much for a 30+ year old 3rd or 4th starter, I see them being able to get a fair amount. In addition to Guthrie’s accolades he has a pretty good track record of success and a fairly clean injury history.I also think the Orioles benefit from the fact that not too many other teams are definitive sellers at this point. And those teams that are, don’t really have starting pitching equal to Guthrie.This should make Guthrie be one of the top trade targets among pitchers this trade deadline.

While I don’t see them getting another Erik Bedard package (which included Adam Jones and Chris Tillman), I really think the Orioles can workout a good deal. I would guess they should land two good prospects (aka the type that is in the B- range) for dealing Guthrie. Now it isn’t a move that isn’t without risk, but it is a risk I think the Orioles need to be willing to take.