WASHINGTON REDSKINS FINAL 7-ROUND MOCK DRAFT:

 1^st Round:

#2. (via St. Louis)- QB Robert Griffin, Baylor:

The Redskins have made the deal to move up and draft RGIII. It cost them a huge amount of draft pick value and will basically define this franchise over the next 10 years. Griffin has immense upside and if handled correctly this trade could work out for the Redskins. For the first time in a long time the Redskins have a true offensive piece they can build around.

3^rd Round:

#69. – OT Zebrie Sanders, FSU

4^th Round:

#102. – CB Leonard Johnson, Iowa State

#109. (via Oakland)- OT Nate Potter, Boise State

5^th Round:

#141. – WR Marvin McNutt, Iowa

6^th Round:

#173. (via Minn)- ILB Miles Burris, San Diego State

7^th Round:

#213. – S D.J. Campbell, Cal

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UPDATED March 24, 2012

Washington Redskins Team Needs In Priority Order:

1. Quarterback

2. Offensive Tackle

3. Guard

4. Cornerback

5. Strong Safety

6. Free Safety

7. Defensive Line depth

8. Interior Offensive Line Depth

9. Inside Linebacker

10. Running back depth

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DRAFT PICKS:

1st rd: 10th
2nd rd: 41st
3rd rd: traded to New Orleans
4th rd: traded to Philadelphia
5th rd: 144
5th rd: 155 (from New Orleans)
6th rd: 177
7th rd: 213
7th rd: 224 (from Indianapolis)
7th rd: 253 (compensatory selection)

DRAFT NEEDS:

1. Right Tackle: The Redskins thought they filled their RT void with a trade for former All-pro Jamaal Brown, but unfortunately he proved to be ineffective (and is also a free agent), meaning the Redskins will need to find a bookend to last year’s number one pick Trent Williams. They could look to draft one early, but given their other needs and depth of the potential free agent class, this might be one need they wait slightly on.

2. Left Guard: Trent Williams last year showed flashes of brilliance and should be the top notch tackle the Skins need, unfortunately he is the only member of the offensive line that should be starting in this league. His partner on the left side, Kory Lichtensteiger was pretty awful last season and isn’t the answer for the Redskins. Adding another young talented lineman to lineup next to Trent will go a long way to ensuring better production for the offense.

3. Defensive End x2: If Albert Haynesworth is eventually traded as is expected, the Redskins will have the worst defensive end corps in the NFL. While Jeremy Jarmon flashes some potential to start, he is the only one worth regular snaps. While some would point to Adam Carriker as a starting option, it is pretty clear that he wouldn’t even be a 3rd DE for most of the 3-4 defenses in this league. The Redskins need to add at least one DE early (or of immediate starting caliber in FA), and look to add a 2nd one later.

4. Nose Tackle: The Nose Tackle position is key to any 3-4 unit, and the Redskins found this out the hard way last season as they were totally unprepared. Finding at least someone semi-capable is key to the Redskins offseason.

5. OLB: While the Redskins have Brian Orakpo manning one rush linebacker position at an All-pro level, their other position is a complete black hole. To run the type of defense the Redskins are looking for they need a highly capable pass rusher opposite Orakpo, which makes this a high priority.

6. Right Guard: Will Montgomery is a journey man guard/center and while, he is a good backup he shouldn’t be penciled in as the starter for next season.

7. ILB: Rocky McIntosh is an impending free agent and won’t be back. Last year’s fourth round pick Perry Riley was very raw last season, and probably isn’t ready for a starting role (if ever). Also making this a need is the fact that star ILB London Fletcher will be a free agent after next season and is turning 36 this season.

8. Center: Casey Rabach was perhaps the Redskins worst offensive lineman last year (which is saying something). Despite that, this isn’t as big of a need because both Lichtensteiger and Montgomery project as (slightly) better centers than guards, which should cover the position for a year.

9. WR: Santana Moss is an impeding free agent, and even with him in the fold this WR corps was among the leagues worst last season. Adding 1-3 receivers (depending on Moss’ status) will be key to maintaining at least a decent offense.

10. RB: The Clinton Portis days are over, and while Ryan Torain has flashed some big time ability, I’m thinking he will end up being just an average back. A big part of the concern with him is his durability as it has been 4 years since he last had a fully healthy season. Look for a change of pace back to be picked up in the late rounds.

11. CB: Carlos Rogers is an impending free agent so if he leaves this could definitely move up the list some. While losing Rogers makes it a bigger need, it won’t be too big of one as Kevin Barnes showed some decent ability last season while filling in at FS.

12. QB: The Redskins are likely to have Rex Grossman to start the season, so adding a long term answer at QB is key, unfortunately the Redskins other needs mean they might have to wait a season. Adding a quarterback now when the offensive line is in such shambles would be irresponsible (if they are considering letting him play).

13. Safety depth: The Redskins did manage to sign FS Atogwe before the lockout started, which took care of a big need. Unfortunately safety isn’t totally fixed as the Redskins have pretty bad depth right now.

14. Kicker and Punter: The Redskins specialists were among the worst in the league last season, which should necessitate them bringing in some new competition at least for the roles.

SUMMARY:

While most people focus on the Skins needs at QB or WR, that would be a waste of a 1st or 2nd round pick. While they are major needs, the biggest needs are on defense and along the offensive line. The Redskins defense ranked near the bottom in every single defensive and rushing category. It was a mixed bag when it came to passing, but it was definitely the least weak area for the Redskins last season. Not to mention that building up the offensive line should help improve the passing game quite a bit as well.

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MOCK DRAFT: Round 1: 17-32: Round 2: Round 3: Round 4

*Now Updated with the First Four Rounds!

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. While there are some people who will point to Cam Newton as the answer, he simply isn’t a franchise quarterback of the ilk of Peyton Manning.

While I considered Bowers for the top spot, and have had Fairley there before I think Dareus makes the most sense. While the Panthers could use star DE Charles Johnson, he also might no longer fit in their system. New HC Ron Rivera has talked about employing both the 4-3 and the 3-4. That would make Dareus the be perfect fit for the the Panthers as he as adept to playing both inside at tackle and outside as a 3-4 end. While it isn’t his primary position, Dareus could even play some NT as well. Wherever he is lining up, Dareus projects to be a force at the next level. He should be an excellent run defender and put more than ample pressure on the quarterback.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DT Nick Fairley

Mar. 20th update: Dareus still makes the most sense for the Panthers, though persistent rumors about quarterbacks worry me. Carolina has a lot of needs so this could go a number of directions, but for me Dareus is the top player in this draft and a HUGE need for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos need help along the defensive line, and while initially I thought either Fairley or Dareus, would be the pick here, I think Bowers is the best fit. Bowers is the rare combination of a DE, who has the size and bulk to hold up in the running game, and get effective pressure on the quarterback. The Broncos still need a DT (actually two of them), but would be better served with drafting one with one of their two 2nd round picks. Bowers and Dumervil would give Denver the book end pass rushers that every team is looking for.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 20th update: Fairley is working his way back up the draft boards and Denver could go for a stud young corner, but getting a bookend to Dumervil makes a lot of sense. It is a deeper DT draft than it is a DE draft so the Broncos would be wise to take the top end in this class.

3. Buffalo Bills: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

As the days go by Miller’s stock keeps rising and rising, to the point that I just can’t see the Bills passing on him. I know they could go QB here, or the top corner on their board, but Miller is an elite talent and fills a major need. He’s making it harder and harder for the Bills to pass him up, to the point that I just can’t see it happening.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 6th update: I think this is maybe a little high, but the Bills could use a CB upgrade and Peterson looks like a star.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

Mar. 6th update: If there is one top 5 team that would pick Newton it has to be the Bengals. They need to move on from Palmer and they don’t mind taking a risk on guys.

Mar. 20th update: This is one of those things that makes too much sense for it not to happen. The Bengals are the type of team that will overvalue Newton and be ‘wowed’ by his athletic ability.

5. Arizona Cardinals: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

In some ways I think the Cardinals are ‘Von Miller or bust’ with this top 5 pick. While Peterson, would be excellent value and strengthen the team, he doesn’t represent a major need. While QB is a major need, I don’t see the Cards as players for Newton, and Gabbert might be too rich at the 5th pick for them. Given the depth of quarterbacks the Cardinals should be able to find a good young prospect in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. While there are other talented pass rushers in Quinn and Smith I don’t see the Cards pulling the trigger here. Arizona also desperately needs offensive tackles, but this is a bit rich for Tyron Smith, though I gave it fairly strong consideration.

In my opinion if Miller is off the board, look for Arizona to move down, either for a team that wants Peterson, or Gabbert (with Fairley or Green intriguing guys to move up for as well). If they keep the pick Peterson is an option, but more for value than need.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

Mar. 6th update: Some will push for the Cards to add a QB, but I just don’t see that happening. Miller is an elite talent and barring an injury should be the Cards pick.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection OLB Von Miller

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

Mar. 6th update: I still like Green more than Jones and feel he is the perfect weapon for the Browns to help develop Colt McCoy.

Mar. 20th update: With Nick Fairley’s strong Pro Day, I’m considering him strongly for this spot, but the Browns should be able to fill their DT need in the 2nd round. I think Green is too good to pass up at this spot.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

Mar. 6th update: Gabbert is a good pick for the 49ers and can help begin the revival of that franchise. I think he will need a little time, but he should be a quick study under Harbaugh.

Mar. 20th update: I have very mixed feelings about grabbing Gabbert here, but I think Harbaugh wants a young signal caller and Gabbert is the best in this class.

8. Tennessee Titans: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

The Titans have been searching for an inside pass rusher for a couple years now, and now they finally have one in Nick Fairley. Fairley is a top 5 talent, but one that could slip since he isn’t as good of a fit in the 3-4. Fairley will be a big boost to the Titans pass rush, that could be hurting from the potential loss of Jason Babin. Tennessee needs a disruptor along their defensive line and that fits Fairley perfectly.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection: WR Julio Jones

Mar. 20th update: The Titans have other needs, but I can’t see Fairley sliding any further than this.

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick. Personally I think Amukamara is the best corner in this draft and will automatically revitalize their secondary.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

Mar. 6th update: When you have Hakeem Nicks, and DeSean Jackson in your division you need to find a way to matchup. Even Rex Grossman threw for 400 yards against this Cowboys secondary, so CB is definitely a need.

Mar. 20th update: Cowboys could be a prime team to trade up for Peterson, but I think they will be quite content with their ‘consolation’ prize in Amukamara

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

Mar. 6th update: I know I’m a lot higher on Smith than most, but I think 3 years from now when you look back at this draft he will end up being a top 10 player.

Mar. 20th update: I know in this scenario most people would peg Jones or Quinnf for this pick, but I think Smith has a real chance of being something special.

11. Houston Texans: OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. This pick should come down to either a rush linebacker or a 3-4 DE. I go back and forth about which position the Texans should address, but if they feel like Quinn can stand up, then he has to be their pick. The Texans have at least average defensive ends, but they don’t have much in the way of pass rush specialists. I know they plan is to use Mario Williams in a hybrid formation, and that could work, but they need someone who is more natural at the position. I still have some doubts about Quinn, but he does have the upside to be an elite pass rusher, and that is exactly what the Texans need.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Mar. 6th update: Cam Jordan is a great fit for the Texans and upgrading that line with 3-4 players is key. A pass rusher is possible, but Jordan is too good to pass up

pick change: Mar. 16th previous selection, DE Cam Jordan

12. Minnesota Vikings: OLB Cameron Jordan, California-

While Cameron Jordan isn’t a prototypical 4-3 defensive end, he is still quick enough to rush effectively from that position. Jordan’s ability to play inside, fits well with the Vikings since he can move inside to replace Pat Williams on passing downs. Adding Jordan to the front line, will go a long way to helping the Vikings defense return to elite status.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change:Mar. 6th previous selection DE Robert Quinn

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

Mar. 6th update: Smith is still the top tackle on the board and his presence will allow Backus (a better run blocker) kick over to the RT spot, strengthening their line in two areas.

Mar. 20th update:All of the Lions other needs can be addressed in the 2nd-4th rounds, one thing they won’t be able to fix in those rounds is adding a stud LT. That is why Smith has to be the pick here, and any other pick will not do enough

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now I’m not conceding my personal rankings in terms of who should go first between Julio Jones and Jon Baldwin, but I think it is time to concede the fact that Jones will go first. I think teams will fall in love with his incredible combine numbers, and slightly overdraft Jones. It’s not that I am anit-Jones, its just that I worry about how refined he is. That being said, he will be a major upgrade for the Rams and they will be thrilled to land him with this pick. If they feel he could get drafted earlier, don’t be surprised if St. Louis looks to move up a couple of spots to secure his services.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Mar. 6th update: I know some fans don’t like Baldwin too much, but don’t buy the hype, this guy is a stud and just as deserving to go top 15 as Julio Jones. Yes they could go DE or DT here, but I’m a big believer in Baldwin and think he will be the best of the 3 receivers

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

Mar. 6th update: I want to see more out of Ingram to say he is top 15 worthy, but it is such a need for Miami I can’t pass it up.

Mar. 20th update: Ingram is still a fringe top 20 player for me, but Miami’s need is too great to ignore him at this point.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Mar. 6th update: Clayborn makes a lot of sense at this pick and while there are a couple of other respectable options I really think this is the way they go.

Mar. 20th update: I’m very close to switching this pick to Ryan Kerrigan, and I debated long and hard about the merits between the two defensive ends. In the end I just feel Clayborn is the great value and better all around DE, while Kerrigan is the better pure pash rusher.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4

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* NOW UPDATED WITH THE FIRST FOUR ROUNDS!

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. While there are some people who will point to Cam Newton as the answer, he simply isn’t a franchise quarterback of the ilk of Peyton Manning.

While I considered Bowers for the top spot, and have had Fairley there before I think Dareus makes the most sense. While the Panthers could use star DE Charles Johnson, he also might no longer fit in their system. New HC Ron Rivera has talked about employing both the 4-3 and the 3-4. That would make Dareus the be perfect fit for the the Panthers as he as adept to playing both inside at tackle and outside as a 3-4 end. While it isn’t his primary position, Dareus could even play some NT as well. Wherever he is lining up, Dareus projects to be a force at the next level. He should be an excellent run defender and put more than ample pressure on the quarterback.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DT Nick Fairley

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos need help along the defensive line, and while initially I thought either Fairley or Dareus, would be the pick here, I think Bowers is the best fit. Bowers is the rare combination of a DE, who has the size and bulk to hold up in the running game, and get effective pressure on the quarterback. The Broncos still need a DT (actually two of them), but would be better served with drafting one with one of their two 2nd round picks. Bowers and Dumervil would give Denver the book end pass rushers that every team is looking for.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DT Marcell Dareus

3. Buffalo Bills: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

The Bills could go any number of ways, but I’m guessing they focus on the defensive side of the ball, which is the strength of this draft. With Fairley and Dareus off the board I think they might target LSU CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a playmaker, and the Bills are sorely lacking that on defense. Corner back isn’t a major need, but the Bills face some good receivers and quarterbacks in their division and they might want to matchup. Von Miller makes a lot of sense here as well, but I’m guessing the hype from Peterson wins out.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 6th update: I think this is maybe a little high, but the Bills could use a CB upgrade and Peterson looks like a star.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

Mar. 6th update: If there is one top 5 team that would pick Newton it has to be the Bengals. They need to move on from Palmer and they don’t mind taking a risk on guys.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

Mar. 6th update: Some will push for the Cards to add a QB, but I just don’t see that happening. Miller is an elite talent and barring an injury should be the Cards pick.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

Mar. 6th update: I still like Green more than Jones and feel he is the perfect weapon for the Browns to help develop Colt McCoy.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

Mar. 6th update: Gabbert is a good pick for the 49ers and can help begin the revival of that franchise. I think he will need a little time, but he should be a quick study under Harbaugh.

8. Tennessee Titans: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

The Titans have been searching for an inside pass rusher for a couple years now, and now they finally have one in Nick Fairley. Fairley is a top 5 talent, but one that could slip since he isn’t as good of a fit in the 3-4. Fairley will be a big boost to the Titans pass rush, that could be hurting from the potential loss of Jason Babin. Tennessee needs a disruptor along their defensive line and that fits Fairley perfectly.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection: WR Julio Jones

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick. Personally I think Amukamara is the best corner in this draft and will automatically revitalize their secondary.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

Mar. 6th update: When you have Hakeem Nicks, and DeSean Jackson in your division you need to find a way to matchup. Even Rex Grossman threw for 400 yards against this Cowboys secondary, so CB is definitely a need.

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

Mar. 6th update: I know I’m a lot higher on Smith than most, but I think 3 years from now when you look back at this draft he will end up being a top 10 player.

11. Houston Texans: DE Cam Jordan, California-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. While they could go for a rush linebacker, I think Robert Quinn isn’t the best option. Quinn could be better suited as a 4-3 end. Although they could make due with Quinn, I believe there is a better player available in Cam Jordan at defensive end. Jordan, for a 3-4 end, should still generate a good bit of pressure, and be a disruptive force in the backfield. Houston needs to add the best 3-4 player they can, and right now that seems like Cam Jordan.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Mar. 6th update: Cam Jordan is a great fit for the Texans and upgrading that line with 3-4 players is key. A pass rusher is possible, but Jordan is too good to pass up.

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

While I do think that offensive line and defensive line (along with quarterback) are bigger needs I don’t think the Vikings will let Julio Jones slip by them. Sidney Rice is probably going to leave as a free agent, and the Vikings have little in the way of receiving depth behind, Percy Harvin. If Jones is here I think they will take him.

While I like Jones overall and think he is a top half of the first round talent. I do feel the hype factor is raising his stock. Despite playing on one of the best balanced teams in college football, Jones has a lot of bad games out there. Between the inconsistency and dropped balls I think he is more of a risk. That being said someone will take him top 15 and the Vikings could make a lot of sense.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Da’Quan Bowers

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

Mar. 6th update: Smith is still the top tackle on the board and his presence will allow Backus (a better run blocker) kick over to the RT spot, strengthening their line in two areas.

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Baldwin probably got passed up by Jones, but you really can’t blame Baldwin. He had a fantastic Combine in his own right and should be cemented into first round pick status. The Rams will be thrilled to land one of the top three receivers, though with the way their stock is rising, they might have to trade up to do so.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Mar. 6th update: I know some fans don’t like Baldwin too much, but don’t buy the hype, this guy is a stud and just as deserving to go top 15 as Julio Jones. Yes they could go DE or DT here, but I’m a big believer in Baldwin and think he will be the best of the 3 receivers.

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

Mar. 6th update: I want to see more out of Ingram to say he is top 15 worthy, but it is such a need for Miami I can’t pass it up.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Mar. 6th update: Clayborn makes a lot of sense at this pick and while there are a couple of other respectable options I really think this is the way they go.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
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1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time. Now with not franchising Johnson they could very well lose him, but Fairley is still a slightly better fit than Bowers for me.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

2. Denver Broncos: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos desperately need a defensive tackle, and after Dareus’ big combine performance, I think the Broncos will be willing to pull the trigger. They still have needs at CB and DE, but Dareus fills their biggest need and he looks to be an elite defensive tackle.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

3. Buffalo Bills: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

The Bills could go any number of ways, but I’m guessing they focus on the defensive side of the ball, which is the strength of this draft. With Fairley and Dareus off the board I think they might target LSU CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a playmaker, and the Bills are sorely lacking that on defense. Corner back isn’t a major need, but the Bills face some good receivers and quarterbacks in their division and they might want to matchup. Von Miller makes a lot of sense here as well, but I’m guessing the hype from Peterson wins out.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

8. Tennessee Titans: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

I think this is a little high for Jones, but would say there is a real chance he gets selected here. He has a fantastic combine and his stock is skyrocketing right now. While the Titans have Kenny Britt, he hasn’t been the model teammate so Tennessee could look at this as a value pick. Also, despite having Britt last year, the Titans passing game couldn’t get going. Tennessee could look to add some punch to their receiving corps. Personally I’m not a fan of overvaluing receivers, but it does happen and I could see it happening here.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

11. Houston Texans: DE Cam Jordan, California-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. While they could go for a rush linebacker, I think Robert Quinn isn’t the best option. Quinn could be better suited as a 4-3 end. Although they could make due with Quinn, I believe there is a better player available in Cam Jordan at defensive end. Jordan, for a 3-4 end, should still generate a good bit of pressure, and be a disruptive force in the backfield. Houston needs to add the best 3-4 player they can, and right now that seems like Cam Jordan.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

12. Minnesota Vikings: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

Although the Vikings have a number of needs on offense I see them looking defense with this pick. They are likely to lose Ray Edwards in free agency and could use a bookend pass rusher to Jared Allen. Bowers didn’t do a full workout at the combine, but he did show up at a good weight and size. While I think he is a top 5 talent, I don’t like the way he fits into 3-4 teams, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I think Minnesota is a great fit for him and he can be an impact player.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Baldwin probably got passed up by Jones, but you really can’t blame Baldwin. He had a fantastic Combine in his own right and should be cemented into first round pick status. The Rams will be thrilled to land one of the top three receivers, though with the way their stock is rising, they might have to trade up to do so.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
NFL Draft Blog

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time. Now with not franchising Johnson they could very well lose him, but Fairley is still a slightly better fit than Bowers for me.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. Although the Broncos covet, Fairley and could ideally go with the next best defensive tackle, I think they go with the best player available, in Bowers. Denver needs to revamp that entire defense, but in particular the defensive line. Elvis Dumervil will be at one end, but beyond that the Broncos have nothing for the other end spot. Bowers will be an instant fix, and should become a dominate force.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

3. Buffalo Bills: DE/DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

The Bills could go a number of different directions, but with the recent release of Marcus Stroud, the Bills need some help up front. I know they were impressed with Alex Carrington, but Dareus is at a different level. Putting him next to Kyle Williams should shut down the run. Dareus also projects to give a good amount of pressure from his end spot. I still think OLB Von Miller is high on their list, but to run a 3-4, you need to have linemen who can hold at the point of attack, and that is Dareus.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

7. San Francisco 49ers: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

While the 49ers could be tempted by a quarterback, I think corner back makes too much sense for them to pass up. Their secondary got pretty torched last season, and adding a play-maker like Amukamara should help fix that problem immediately.  The 49ers could win the NFC West next year with just a few changes so adding guys who can help right away, compared to a developmental QB makes sense. With a stud corner in the fold that defense should finally be as good as advertised. Quarterback is still and issue, and one that will likely be addressed in free agency (or via a trade) and a mid-round selection. I’m extremely close between which corner is better Peterson or Amukamara, but give the slight edge to Amukamara.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

8. Tennessee Titans: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

The Titans at this point could go in any direction, but it will be hard to gauge until they have a new coach in place. Despite the coaching change it looks as though Vince Young is on his way out. While that would have happened with Jeff Fisher at the helm, he was more likely to look for a more veteran fix (McNabb, Kolb, etc.), then go the rookie route. With a new staff in place it might be time to rebuild in Tennessee, making Gabbert a smart pick. While I don’t know if I’d label him a ‘franchise quarterback’, he does have the best combination of potential, talent, and likelihood of reaching it. Gabbert probably should start until at least mid-season, but he gives hope as a quarterback who can take pressure off Chris Johnson.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

I know the Cowboys need an offensive lineman, and I think Tyson Smith is perfect for them, but there is no way they’d pass up Peterson (or Amukamara) if available. Their secondary was flat out awful last season, and they need a playmaker to take over. When you play the Eagles and Giants receiving corps 4 times a year, you have to match-up. The Cowboys do have serious offensive line issues and will need to fix that in free agency/2nd round of the draft.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

11. Houston Texans: OLB/DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take should focus this pick on grabbing a rush linebacker. I’ll keep with the trend of my previous picks and give the Texans an elite pass rusher. I think Quinn absolutely dominated two years ago, and should help cause havoc in Wade Phillips new defense.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

While I think the Vikings will consider quarterback, there is no one at this pick worth taking. Other areas of need include both the offensive and defensive lines, but none is as pressing as wide receiver. Although the Vikings could still resign Sidney Rice, they are going to let him test the open market, and I’m guessing some other team overpays for him. The Vikings will desperately look for a receiver complement to Percy Harvin. I think Baldwin is an exceptional talent, one that has a case to be picked ahead of Green. People may scoff at this pick, and I’m not a huge fan of drafting receivers high, but it happens every year, and Baldwin is a weapon.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Jones is another big play, big time receiver and will quickly become Sam Bradford’s best friend.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
NFL Draft Blog

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Broncos could go in multiple defensive directions here, but I’m going to say they nab Amukamara here. The Broncos could opt for a defensive end (or a rush linebacker if they stay in the 3-4), but taking a corner here makes sense. Champ Bailey is an impending free agent, and if they can’t agree to terms with them their corner situation is dismal. Even if they do bring Bailey back, his time at the top of his game is near the end, so adding a young elite corner makes sense. Also, when you play Phillip Rivers twice a year, strengthening your defensive backs is a always a good idea.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

3. Buffalo Bills: DE/DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

The Bills could go a number of different directions, but with the recent release of Marcus Stroud, the Bills need some help up front. I know they were impressed with Alex Carrington, but Dareus is at a different level. Putting him next to Kyle Williams should shut down the run. Dareus also projects to give a good amount of pressure from his end spot. I still think OLB Von Miller is high on their list, but to run a 3-4, you need to have linemen who can hold at the point of attack, and that is Dareus.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

6. Cleveland Browns: DE De’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

Previously I had the Browns reaching for a wide receiver with this pick and taking Julio Jones, but recent events make me believe they will go in a different direction. With the hiring of Dick Jauron, it is now pretty official that the Browns are heading to a 4-3 alignment, and right now they don’t have the personnel to handle the move. In particular they need to find help at defensive end, making De’Quan Bowers a fantastic selection for them. Bowers is the top rated player on my board, but he doesn’t fit nearly as well into 3-4 teams, and teams like the Panthers and Bengals don’t have a pressing need for a DE, allowing him to fall. The Browns would be wise to end that fall, as he has the potential to be the next Mario Williams or Julius Peppers. Although the Browns still need to add a big play receiver, I think they will look more towards the 2nd round and/or free agency.

pick change: Jan. 25 previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

7. San Francisco 49ers: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

While the 49ers could be tempted by a quarterback, I think Peterson makes too much sense for them to pass up. Their secondary got pretty torched last season, and adding a play-maker like Peterson should help fix that problem immediately.  The 49ers could win the NFC West next year with just a few changes so adding guys who can help right away, compared to a developmental QB makes sense. With Peterson in the fold that defense should finally be as good as advertised. Quarterback is still and issue, and one that will likely be addressed in free agency (or via a trade) and a mid-round selection.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

8. Tennessee Titans: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

The Titans at this point could go in any direction, but it will be hard to gauge until they have a new coach in place. Despite the coaching change it looks as though Vince Young is on his way out. While that would have happened with Jeff Fisher at the helm, he was more likely to look for a more veteran fix (McNabb, Kolb, etc.), then go the rookie route. With a new staff in place it might be time to rebuild in Tennessee, making Gabbert a smart pick. While I don’t know if I’d label him a ‘franchise quarterback’, he does have the best combination of potential, talent, and likelihood of reaching it. Gabbert probably should start until at least mid-season, but he gives hope as a quarterback who can take pressure off Chris Johnson.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

9. Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I have gone back and forth with this pick, but think Smith is a good fit for Dallas. With reports that the Cowboys aren’t going to franchise Doug Free, there is a serious chance they lose him in free agency. Even if they do retain him, right tackle was a HUGE hole for the Cowboys last year and needs to be fixed for Dallas to contend. Corner back and defensive end also make sense, in addition to trading back (or even up for a corner). Until the Cowboys address their offensive line woes, it will be hard for me to not mock them a Tackle. I know some think Smith is too light, but I’m a big believer in him, and think he will show himself at the combine next week.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

11. Houston Texans: OLB/DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take should focus this pick on grabbing a rush linebacker. I’ll keep with the trend of my previous picks and give the Texans an elite pass rusher. I think Quinn absolutely dominated two years ago, and should help cause havoc in Wade Phillips new defense.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

I’ve thought the Vikings would go for Cam Newton all along, but the hype makes it seem like he will be long gone by the time they are on the clock. I know people will question this pick, considering the fact that Minnesota already has Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, but I could really see this happening. For one thing it is great value, and for another Minnesota’s quarterback, whomever it will be, will need all the help he can get. When the Vikings were without Sidney Rice last season, their passing game really struggled (not all on Rice). Rice is also a free agent, which could make this a big need, but even if he resigns it makes sense for the Vikings. Adding Green to the mix makes Minnesota that much more dangerous and still a playoff threat. They do need to still fix that offensive line, but Green could be the pick here.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pick selection Cam Newton

13. Detroit Lions: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College

With Tyron Smith off the board, the Lions will have to go with the next best available tackle. I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. Detroit might have needs at LB and CB and a few other positions, but they are secondary compared to their need at offensive tackle.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

Most draftniks will say this is too high for Baldwin, but I think they are underselling him a bit. Baldwin has all the skills to be a number one wide receiver in this league and his addition should make Sam Bradford very happy. The Rams could look at some defensive options, but I think they stay the course and add the top WR on the board. While right now you can make a case of Julio Jones over Baldwin, I don’t think it is nearly as strong as most scouts make it out to be. I believe that Baldwin will separate himself during his workouts, and end up being the 2nd receiver in this class.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

1. They ended up with only 6 players, and only one of which was in the top 100 picks.

2. I don’t buy into this whole thing where I should be happy that we gave up our 2nd round pick for McNabb, and that he is the best 2nd round value in the draft. Yeah maybe if this was 5 years ago. For one thing we also gave up a pick next year, so McNabb will be our ‘third round pick’ then as well. Also that is only taking in consideration what McNabb does this year, since that is all we traded for, because even if we sign him to an extension, we would have had the chance to sign him as a free agent next year if we really wanted him. McNabb this year might be better then most of these 2nd round picks (I would not bet on all of them), but next year, and going forward I don’t know if we can make the same claim. Also, remember the 37th overall pick has more value than just the players that were available there. Given the Skins needs and the depth of this draft, they could have traded down (even multiple times) and gotten extra picks. If they traded just to the middle of the round they could have gotten Jimmy Clausen, who apparently the Skins thought well enough that they considered him with the 4th overall pick, plus the additional draft picks. If they traded even further back to the end of the 2nd round, they could have gotten quality offensive linemen like Ducasse or Charles Brown. Either would have filled a huge need.

3. They got nothing in return for Jason Campbell. I know it shouldn’t be evaluated with this draft, because the Campbell deal didn’t involve any picks in this draft, but that is exactly why I dislike it. How do you not get picks for 2 years, for an above average starter? Campbell is a steal for Oakland, especially since he agreed to add another year on his contract (where is that with Donovan???).

4. They didn’t trade any of their other impending unrestricted free agents (McIntosh or Rogers). This is just awful, these guys maybe weren’t going to net 1st or 2nd rounders, but they should have been able to get a solid return (though probably needed to make the trade ahead of time). Now Washington will lose both of these players next year for nothing (unless some other trade during the season is worked out, but I wouldn’t hold my breath). Even if the Skins do make the playoffs this season I don’t think it will be because of McIntosh and Rogers. Washington would have been well served to increase their depth by moving these two players.

5. They kept Fred Davis. I know Davis isn’t really on the trade block, but he should have been. Whether you could have worked out a trade for Baltimore’s Jared Gaither or just a mid-2nd rounder it would have been worth it. I know people may assert I’m overvaluing Davis, but he showed enough to be a starting TE in this league. Unfortunately the Skins already have one in Cooley. It doesn’t make sense to me that the Skins have two starting quality TE’s, but only one starting quality OT (Trent Williams). Whether you got Gaither in return or picks, the Skins could have filled needs by sacrificing their lone luxury.

6. Why are we drafting Perry Riley? Riley is a solid player, but he doesn’t seem spectacular and not ever really considered to be a top prospect. Not bad, but not great isn’t what I’m looking for with our 2nd overall pick in the 4 round. Especially since so many guys had fallen in the draft. Grabbing a player with upside at a need, like Bruce Campbell would have made sense. Or even trading back in the round and picking up an extra selection or 2.

7. Why aren’t we signing better named undrafted free agents? The Skins only had 6 picks, but as of now don’t have a very impressive undrafted free agent class. Sure these guys are all shots in the dark. But given the Skins need adding some DB’s, more RB’s and a young quarterback (Jevan Snead, Bill Stull) would have been like having a couple extra 7th round picks. I don’t know what the deal is, but I can’t imagine the Skins would be turned down because of a lack of opportunity.

All-in-all I was very disappointed that they had so few picks to start, and they weren’t really able to add that many more. This is a pretty old team, with a lot of current holes, Washington needed some reinforcements but was unable to really help any area but the offensive line (and it still isn’t complete). Overall I give them a Grade of D+ and that includes all the players that were acquired with their picks.

First off I want to say, this was the best possible option if we stayed at the 4th pick. Williams is an exceptional tackle who has a ton of upside. I do worry that he isn’t a finished product yet, meaning he might not be the dominate tackle you’d expect with the 4th overall pick. The real reason I’m unhappy with this draft is basically the Redskins are done, and all I see are needs that have yet to be filled. This was a 4-12 team last season, and they still have major needs at RT, Guard, back-up center, fullback, running back (x2), blocking tight end, a developmental quarterback, and depth at receiver. And those are just the needs on offense, on defense this team needs a NT, an ILB, CB depth and a starting free saftey. Now it may have been impossible fill all these needs in this draft, but Washington needed to address as many as possible. Anyway you look at it, this was a bad team last year, and so far they don’t look much better this season. If the season started today this is where they would rank at each position:

Quarterback: The Skins may have a slight upgrade with McNabb, but he still isn’t a top tier or even top ten quarterback in this league. Don’t believe me? Well good luck making an argument that he is better than (in no particular order):  Peyton Manning, Brees, Rivers, Schaub, Rodgers, Favre (should be back for one more year), Romo, Eli Manning, Roethlisberger or Brady. McNabb is good, but isn’t going to solve the Skins problems. And guess what? The guy he was replacing is what no worse than 13th or 14th best in the league?

Running backs:  The Redskins desperately need some fresh legs and could use both a power running back and speed guy, and guess what, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker aren’t the answer. Even if Portis comes back strong, their running back situation is about in the late teens-early 20′s in the league. There is no doubt about the fact that the Redskins running game doesn’t stack up well against other teams around the league, and that doesn’t even take into consideration about how poor their blocking is.

Fullback:  Not every team uses a fullback so you can’t put a real number on where the Skins rank, but I really believe they are in trouble here. Mike Sellers looked like a shadow of his former self. He wasn’t nearly as effective running or receiving. Also, didn’t open up holes as a lead blocker or do a good job protecting the quarterback. While it is not a crucial position, a quality fullback could help the running game vastly.

Tight End: Overall this is a position of strength for the Skins, because they have two quality tight ends. On paper they would rank 4 0r 5 in the league (Clark, Gates and Witten are so good that they outrank Cooley/Davis). The problem with that is, really how often are both tight ends going to be able to be effective weapons in the offense. Given the lack of offensive line talent, one of them will have to stay in to block, meaning your greatest strength is more or less wasted. The Skins should look to trade Davis for a top talent (ahem, Gaither anyone) or a 2nd round pick +. They still could use a top notch blocking tight end to help keep McNabb upright (Sean Ryan ain’t gonna cut it).

Wide Receiver: Even if Kelly and Thomas have solid ‘breakout’ years, I don’t see this unit any better than early 20′s in terms of a league ranking. Moss is still a solid starter, but he isn’t the the home run hitter he once was. And the jury is still very much out on Thomas and Kelly.

Offensive Line: Even if you assume that Trent Williams can be an elite offensive tackle from day one (which I believe is a big assumption), the Redskins still have to fill the other 4 positions along the line. Dockery is still slightly above average, but should really be your 4th or 5th best offensive lineman, not your 2nd (by far it isn’t even close). And any offensive line that still has Heyer starting, means McNabb will be on his back and Portis will be stopped cold. Right now, this is still one of the worst offensive line units in the league, and shouldn’t be ranked higher than the mid-20′s. Even if they sign a Levi Jones or Flozell Adams, they wouldn’t make that much of an impact.

Defensive Line: Right now with Haynesworth (playing primarily 3-4 end), this could be a top 10 unit. Without him it will probably be one of the worst defensive lines in the league. The Skins still need to find some help at NT, so they can feel confident in letting Haynesworth have the freedom he needs to make plays.

Linebackers: Hard to really peg this unit, guys like Carter, Jarmon, Alexander, and McIntosh are making significant transitions that could hurt their value.  Fletcher and Orakpo should thrive in the 3-4, but without knowing how the rest of the unit will do it is hard to say where they are valued. If their other players exceed expectations than they could be a top 10 unit, if not the Skins linebacking corps could be a weakness. McIntosh should and probably will be traded leaving a big hole next to Fletcher in the middle.

Cornerback:  This unit should be solid, they don’t have any shutdown corners, but three solid veterans and two decent young guys. Personally, I would move Rogers and love to draft one of the talented corners from this deep class. Overall I’d say they are about middle of the pack.

Safety: The talent has always been there with Landry, but he has yet to show it on the field. I like the idea of moving him to SS, but it leaves the Skins without a true free safety. Guys like Horton and Doughty would be out of position there. The Redskins could desperately use a 2nd or 3rd round pick to draft one of the many quality starting caliber free safeties in this class. Right now, without any real potential at FS and not really knowing how Landry will transition to strong safety, the Redskins look pretty weak at the position. And would probably fall at best in the mid-20′s.

For me I look at this team and I don’t see a winning record, and that is if all 22 of their guys stay healthy, because with the exception of cornerback, the Redskins have just about zero depth. While they can maybe add some depth and possibly even a starter at fullback with their remaining picks, they won’t be able to address their core needs with this draft and that is the central problem.

Now I wasn’t in the Redskins War Room (I wish), but I know we will hear that they didn’t receive any offers for their 4th overall pick that were worth trading down. But they must have had some offers, and it would have made sense to take a little less value to trade down (probably a couple of times) into that 11-13 range that really had teams wanting to move up, because teams like the Eagles, and Chargers did give up decent value to trade up. So while their initial value might not have been worth the trade, by continuing to trade back the Redskins could have made up that value. I say this especially because offensive linemen were not the high priority that people thought they would be. Three starting quality tackles remain on the board as the 2nd round begins tonight (not to mention Bulaga falling to 23). And while those guys might not be the full package of Trent Williams, their value combined with the multiple 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks they got for moving down would have been worth it.

I just really can’t believe there wasn’t any possible trade back options for the Skins, and feel that Washington missed a golden opportunity to rebuild this team, be a more competitive team in 2010, and set themselves up for sustained success. Not only does Williams need to show that he is an elite left tackle prospect, but he needs to prove that he was worth the multitude of picks the Redskins potentially passed up in one of the deepest drafts we have seen in the past 10 years.