by Steve Shoup
New York Jets NFL Draft Grades
May 3, 2012 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
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by Steve Shoup
New York Jets FINAL 7-Round Mock Draft:
April 25, 2012 in Mock Drafts by Steve Shoup
NEW YORK JETS FINAL 7-ROUND MOCK DRAFT:
1st Round:
16. New York Jets- OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama:
It’s really amazing that the Jets have been able to generate much pressure at all considering the lack of a truly great pass rusher. Outside of getting a better option at QB (and no Tim Tebow isn’t that answer), the Jets need to come away with a pass rusher this offseason. Upshaw is a very impressive option. While some consider him a bit of a stretch at OLB, I think he will do well in the Jets system.
2nd Round:
47. New York Jets- RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech
3rd Round:
77. New York Jets- WR Nick Toon, Wisconsin
5th Round:
154. New York Jets- G Adam Gettis, Iowa
6th Round:
187. NY Jets (from Indy)- WR T.J. Graham, NC State
202. New York Jets (comp)- ILB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State
203. New York Jets (comp)- S Kelcie McCray, Arkansas State
7th Round:
232. NY Jets (via Denver Broncos) – ILB Darius Fleming, Notre Dame
242. New York Jets (Comp.) – CB Cliff Harris, Oregon
244. New York Jets (Comp.) – CB Jeremy Lane, Northeastern
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by Steve Shoup
2012 NFL Draft – New York Jets Team Needs
January 22, 2012 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
UPDATED March 24, 2012
New York Jets Team Needs In Priority Order:
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Outside Linebacker
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Wide Receiver
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Running back
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Cornerback
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Quarterback
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Offensive Line depth
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Defensive Line Depth
For comprehensive Team Needs with explanations, check back in late March for Fanspeak’s NFL Draft Guide!
by Steve Shoup
AFC East Draft Grades:
May 5, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
BUFFALO BILLS:
3. Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama: Dareus is a great pick for the Bills, he fills a major need a Buffalo and very well could be the best player from this class.
34. Aaron Williams, cornerback, Texas: this is a good value pick for the Bills as Williams was a projected first rounder. I know there are concerns that he will need to move to free safety, but Buffalo should find a way to utilize him next season.
68. Kelvin Sheppard, linebacker, LSU: The Bills need some serious help at inside linebacker and Sheppard is a good fit here. I thought this was slightly too high for him, but it fills a big time need.
100. Da’Norris Searcy, safety, UNC: Searcy is a good mid-round strong safety candidate. While he will probably not be a starter next year he should contribute on special teams.
122. Chris Hairston, tackle, Clemson: Buffalo desperately needs offensive linemen. While Hairston isn’t an elite player I could see him being a starting caliber RT for multiple years.
133. Johnny White, running back, UNC: This might have been a slight reach for the Bills, but not so much that it negates their strong draft.
169. Chris White, linebacker, Mississippi St: Good late round pick here, White is a very active player and should help strengthen their LB corps. I see him primarily at OLB, but he can play inside as well.
206. Justin Rogers, cornerback, Richmond: I love this pick of Rogers here. If Williams is moved to FS, then the CB depth is pretty shallow. Even if Williams does stay at CB, Rogers has some nice upside and should be a contributor on special teams.
245. Michael Jasper, defensive tackle, Bethel (TN.): Jasper wasn’t on many draft boards, but he is a big kid who projects at NT and has decent athletic ability considering his size.
GRADE: B+
I wasn’t a fan of not getting an offensive lineman with their first four picks, but they got good players there and really strengthened their defense. I also don’t fault Buffalo at all for not addressing the quarterback position in this class. Dareus was a far superior player to any signal caller, and a smart move for the Bills. There really wasn’t a QB who was going to outplay Fitzpatrick these next two years, so why waste a top pick on a project. White is the only pick that has me shaking my head at all, while the rest of them are right on the money. Very good draft overall for the Bills and one that I think will really improve this team.
MIAMI DOLPHINS:
15. Mike Pouncey, guard/center, Florida: This might be a slight reach for Pouncey, but he fills a big need for them, and obviously has a good pedigree.
62. Daniel Thomas, running back, Kansas St: The Dolphins needed a running back, but they paid a pretty high price to get one. I like Thomas, but this seems like a bit of a reach.
111. Edmond Gates, wide receiver, Abilene Christian: Gates is a good value pick here, and gives the Dolphins a nice 3rd WR.
174. Charles Clay, tight end, Tulsa: Miami hasn’t had an offensive minded tight end in some time, so this is a good addition here.
231. Frank Kearse, defensive tackle, Alabama A&M: Kearse is a backup NT prospect, and a solid value here.
235. Jimmy Wilson, cornerback, Montana: Miami needed some secondary depth so this is a decent value pick.
GRADE: C
While the Dolphins addressed two of their biggest needs with their top two picks in Pouncey and Thomas, I think they were both reaches. I especially didn’t like the Thomas pick since they had to use 3 picks to move up just 17 slots. Thomas is a nice back but I think they could have gotten similar value in the 3rd, while still having their 5th and 7th rounders. Gates and Clay are nice picks for their slots and offer a lot of potential but I don’t think it’s enough to balance some of the risks they took earlier.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
17. Nate Solder, tackle, Colorado: Solder is a nice LT prospect but I think this is a slight reach and their were better OT’s on the board. Solder has uber potential, but he also has a higher bust factor than you’d typically see in this high of a pick.
33. Ras-I Dowling, corerback, Virginia: I love this Dowling pick, I think he is a day one starter for the Patriots (if they need him to be). He has shutdown corner potential and gives them great value here.
56. Shane Vereen, running back, California: this is a bit a reach for Vereen, but he is a good prospect and help strengthens New England’s running game.
73. Stevan Ridley, running back, LSU: Ridley is a nice big back, but he was probably taken a round and a half early. He’s a good special teams player so that will help, but I’m not sure if these backs will make enough of a difference.
74. Ryan Mallett, quarterback Arkansas: Mallett is a great value pick here and this is a good situation for him. If he shapes up, Mallett could either be the successor to Brady or a major trade chip.
138. Marcus Cannon, guard, TCU: I absolutely love this pick for the Pats. Cannon has top 50 potential, but fell because oh his concern with cancer. While it is a serious issue it seems to be very curable and he should make a full recovery. If he does this is an absolute steal.
159. Lee Smith, tight end, Marshall: I know the Pats drafted two tight ends last year, but Smith is still a good pick for them here. Alge Crumpler actually had the 2nd most snaps among NE’s tight ends. Crumpler was primarily a blocking TE and that is exactly the role Smith will play.
194. Markell Carter, linebacker, Central Arkansas: Carter has some outside linebacker potential, but this is a reach pick here. New England does know what they are looking for so they might be on to something.
219. Malcolm Williams, cornerback, TCU: The Patriots secondary needed some depth so this has some value. I’m guessing though he is a long shot to make the team.
GRADE: B
While I really liked the Patriots draft I by no means loved it. With 6 of the top 100 picks I expected a bit more from them. And while they did land a 1st and a 2nd next year, I feel they should have executed better this season. Far too many reaches in the top 3 rounds for my liking and New England didn’t even touch their needs at DE, OLB, or S with their top picks.
NEW YORK JETS:
30. Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive end, Temple: This is a great value pick for the Jets as I think he can step in early and replace Shaun Ellis.
94. Kenrick Ellis, defensive tackle, Hampton: There are some serious red flag concerns about Ellis, but I do like this pick for NY. They have had serious questions at NT for the last couple years and this should begin to answer them.
126. Bilal Powell, running back, Louisville: I know LT is getting up there in age but I don’t get this pick at all. Powell is a nice running back but not a need.
153. Jeremy Kerley, wide receiver, TCU: I love this pick for the Jets. Three of their top four receivers are free agents and I can’t see them all resigning. Kerley is a nice slot prospect and I think he can have a nice impact.
208. Greg McElroy, quarterback, Alabama: I actually like this pick for the Jets as I think McElroy could be a very good backup quarterback in time. He won’t ever be a star, but he’ll be the type of guy who can step in for a 2-4 week stretch if the starter is injured.
227. Scotty McKnight, wide receiver, Colorado: I know this was a favor to Mark Sanchez (maybe he’ll actually complete passes now), but it seems a bit much. He was likely to be undrafted and would have signed whenever free agency started so it seems like a waste.
GRADE: C
I’m really not a fan of this draft as I feel the Jets didn’t address their needs and overdrafted too many players. Wilkerson is a fine pick, but Ellis was a bit of a risk. I realize it was a need, but if Ellis doesn’t pan out this draft class will set the Jets back. I can see drafting a receiver and maybe a quarterback, but grabbing an extra WR just as a favor to your quarterback is insane. As for drafting a runningback I just don’t get it at all. Had the Jets had extra picks I would have been more okay with this class, but they were down a 2nd rounder, and didn’t add a single OLB, OL, or DB. At best this looks like a 2 player class, and that kinda worries me.
by Steve Shoup
New York Jets: Offseason Needs
April 25, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
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Draft Picks:
Rd 1, Pick 30 (30)
Rd 3, Pick 30 (94)
Rd 4, Pick 29 (126)
Rd 5, Pick 30 (161)
Rd 6, Pick 29 (194)
Rd 7, Pick 5 (208)
Needs:
1. Defensive End: The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason, which will leave a big hole at defensive end for New York. The Jets should look to add an end with their first couple of picks to make sure that there isn’t too much of a void there for teams to exploit next season.
2. Outside Linebacker: New York hasn’t had a true impact pass rusher despite having one of the best defenses these past two years. If they can add one big play pass rusher, everyone else on defense will see their numbers go up as well since teams can no longer focus on them.
3. Wide Receiver: Both Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes are free agents this offseason, and given some of their other free agents, I don’t know if New York can resign both players. Mark Sanchez’s development has been shaky enough that I don’t know if the Jets can afford to lose one of there pass catchers. If there is any concern about the ability to afford both Edwards/Holmes the Jets have to look to draft a WR early.
4. Nose Tackle: Kris Jenkins has gotten injured in each of the past two seasons, which has left New York pretty thin at NT. Look for New York to use a 4th or 5th rounder on a rotational type player who could develop into a starter.
5. Offensive Line depth: The Jets appear set along the offensive line, but they need to ensure the position stays strong. Look for the Jets to target an offensive lineman late in the draft.
6. Quarterback: I don’t think the Jets are ready to write off Mark Sanchez, but they shouldn’t be complacent either. Sanchez has struggled thus far in his career, and if he doesn’t start to improve quickly, his career could come to a close a lot sooner than what the Jets are expecting. Taking a late round flyer on a developmental QB, could be a good idea for New York.
Summary:
The Jets are without a doubt a Super Bowl contender, but they need to keep their defense and receivers strong to ensure that. This is a crucial year for Mark Sanchez, so look for the Jets to favor their offensive needs, but DE, OLB and NT are needs as well. With a strong draft class, New York should be ready to make a Super Bowl run.
by Steve Shoup
2011 NFL Mock Draft Picks 17-32 Updated Mar. 20th
March 20, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
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MOCK DRAFT: Round 1: 17-32: Round 2: Round 3: Round 4
17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-
The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Although I would typically look for them to fill one of their defensive needs, I’d be a little shocked if they let Jon Baldwin get past them. Baldwin has big time speed and play making ability, and he could be the perfect replacement for Randy Moss.While I know there are some concerns about his attitude, overall I think Baldwin will be an exceptional addition and offer great value to the Pats.
New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith
Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.
Feb. 25th update: Watt almost looks like he was born to be a Patriot, and while there are some other interesting options I still see this as they way they go.
Mar. 2nd: Watt blew up the combine, but unfortunately for him so did a number of other players. Watt is basically a borderline top 10 talent, so getting him at 17 is fantastic value.
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DE J.J. Watt
18. San Diego Chargers: DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin-
With the Patriots passing on J.J. Watt, San Diego lands a player worth of a top 10 pick in the 2nd half of round 1. The Chargers could consider an offensive lineman or receiver here, but defensive end is their biggest need and Watt should fill it exceptionally well.
pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt
pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones
Feb. 25th update: I’d still be pretty shocked to see Jordan fall this far, but it is possible. If he does the Chargers almost have to take him.
pick change:Feb. 24th previous selection DE Cam Jordan.
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection OLB Robert Quinn
Mar. 20th update: Watt is a great fit for San Diego and a steal if they can land him this late.
19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-
Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.
Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.
Feb. 17th update: I know some people are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.
Feb. 25th update: Ayers to the Giants is one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft, and barring them landing a top LB in free agency I can’t see how they look elsewhere.
Mar. 2nd update: I wasn’t thrilled with Ayers at the Combine, and considered moving him down, but I think what is more likely is he is now the late teens-early 20′s player, that I’ve been slotting him as. He still is a great fit for the G-Men, and should be near the top of their draft board.
Mar. 6th update: I’m still enough of a believer in Ayers to keep him at this spot, but I think his hold of it is tenuous at best.
Mar. 2oth update: I’ve been a little concerned about Ayers straight line speed, but I think that matters a bit less in a 4-3 than a 3-4. I still think Ayers is a solid pick here, and a fit for the Giants.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-
I’ve been mocking them an offensive tackle for some time, but I really think Tampa could be happy with Ryan Kerrigan. He has fallen some in my book and this is a bit high for him, but he can get after the quarterback. Sacks didn’t come easy for the Buccaneers last season, and that has to change for them to take their game to the next level and become a playoff team. I worry about Kerrigan in the ground game, but I do still like him as a pass rusher.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi
Mar. 2nd update: Kerrigan blew up at the Combine, and really showed great athleticism. He even answered some questions about standing up as an OLB. I think Kerrigan is a great fit for Tampa and should be a fantastic pass rusher at the next level.
Mar. 6th update: I think Tampa would be thrilled with Kerrigan, and it will take something pretty spectacular to make them look in a different direction.
Mar. 20th update: Kerrigan is a great fit for their system, and he should greatly increase the amount of pressure the Bucs get on the opposing quarterbacks next season.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-
The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.
Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.
Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.
Feb. 24th update: 3-4′s succeed because of their line (which is improving) and their pass rush, adding Houston ensures the latter of those two is going to be very good.
Mar. 2nd update: Houston I thought put together a very nice Combine, and showed well in both the athletic and positional drills. Houston is firming up a spot in the top 20-25 rankings and is a good fit in K.C.
Mar. 6th update: This is a slight reach for the Chiefs, but I still don’t see why they wouldn’t want a bookend to Hali.
Mar. 20th update: I like Houston probably a bit more than most people and don’t see this a a true reach. I also think Houston is a great fit for the 3-4 and that he will excel there.
22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-
I finally gave in and now have the Colts taking an offensive tackle. They could take one in free agency, but they might not want to pay the high price tag with having to resign Peyton this offseason. Look for the Colts to add a good defensive player or two in free agency to allow them to take an OT. Castonzo I thought preformed well at the Scouting Combine, and looked to be the 2nd best tackle in the draft. I don’t think he is the perfect tackle, but he should be a day one starter and protect Peyton’s blindside for a number of years.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea
Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection DT Christian Ballard
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi
Mar. 6th update: While DT is still a real possibility, if they have a shot at Castonzo, I can’t see them passing it up. Protecting Manning and getting some help for the ground game is a top priority.
Mar. 20th update: Castonzo is exactly what the Colts need, and I think something special would have to occur for them to change this pick.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-
The Eagles have a pressing need at offensive tackle and I’m not buying their faith in Winston Justice, but I am starting to think they might look elsewhere in the draft. Corner back is almost as big of a need as offensive line, and Brandon Harris has great starting potential. Given the level of talent of the Cowboys and Giants receiving corps, the Eagles need to matchup if they want to stay competitive.
Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.
Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Derrek Sherrod
Mar. 2nd update: Jimmy Smith has some red flags, but the Eagles have been known to take chances on people. He has fantastic talent so they are getting an elite player, but there are some serious questions.
Mar. 6th update: Jimmy Smith on talent alone is a top 15 player, but his character concerns will likely get him to slip the Eagles.
pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection Jimmy Smith
24. New Orleans Saints: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-
I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. But, with him off the board and the Saints filling their DT need with Shaun Rogers, I could see them looking to upgrade their offensive line. Yes they already have two of the best guards in the league, but Carl Nicks is a restricted free agent, and I’m not sure if they are willing to have both of their guards signed to massive contracts. If they land Pouncey, they could look to trade Nicks, before he is an unrestricted free agent next season. Even if they keep Nicks, they could always start Pouncey at center where, there current starter, Jonathan Goodwin is also currently a free agent.
Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.
pick change: Feb 18th previous selection RB Mark Ingram
Feb. 24th update: There are a couple ways the Saints could go, but adding a DT, could really bring this defense together. I know it is a number of years straight taking a defensive player first, but without another first round quality running back, I can’t see that trend changing.
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DT Drake Nevis
Mar. 6th update: Pouncey is somewhat of a luxury pick, but it allows them to have multiple options. It is never a bad strategy to strengthen their offensive line, so I see this a real possibility.
Mar. 20th update: I know some Saints fans aren’t happy with the Pouncey pick, but it is great value and really secures the long term future for the Saints offensive line.
25. Seattle Seahawks: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois-
The Seahawks have a number of needs so I think they will go with the best player available strategy, and at this point no player has more value than Liuget. Liuget has the makings of a star defensive tackle. While he could potentially play outside in a 3 man front, his best position is DT. Seattle could be looking at losing their best D-lineman in DT Brandon Mebane, so Liuget could possibly be his replacement. Even if they keep Mebane, pairing him with Liuget would be a nightmare for opposing offenses.
pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan
Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.
Feb. 24th update: I still like Williams with this pick, but with so many needs, it is very possible they go in a different direction.
pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Aaron Williams
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection QB Jake Locker
Mar. 20th update: This is a great value pick for the Seahawks, and they add a great young talent in the middle of their defensive line.
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Aaron Williams, Miami-
The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Williams is a bigger more physical corner, but he can still cover quicker guys. He probably won’t develop into an elite corner, but he should be a good starter.
Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.
Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.
Feb. 24th update: Corner back has to be number one on the Ravens wish list, and Harris is good value at this spot.
Mar. 2nd update: I think Harris is quickly becoming the 3rd best corner in this draft class. He looks to be a playmaker at the next level and shouldn’t disappoint Ravens fans.
Mar. 6th update: Harris has a lot of upside and while he might not be elite he has the potential to be pretty close to it.
pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection, CB Brandon Harris
27. Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame-
Although the Falcons need to upgrade their pass rush, there aren’t any good 4-3 ends available at this pick. They could grab a guy like Heyward or Ballard and kick him inside on passing downs, but I’m guessing they go in a different direction. They could target an offensive lineman if they lose one of their starters in free agency, but for now I like Kyle Rudolph with this pick. No it isn’t the wide receiver they are hoping for, but Rudolph, should still be a good weapon in year one, despite being Tony Gonzalez’s understudy. Surround Matt Ryan with as many weapons as possible is key for Atlanta, and Rudolph definitely qualifies.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Julio Jones
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DE Christian Ballard
Mar. 6th update: This is a little high for Rudolph, but he is the perfect fit for the Falcons, and with no DE’s available here that are worth the pick, adding a weapon for Ryan is key.
Mar. 20th update: Rudolph might be coming off an injury, but I really believe he will develop into a weapon at the next level.
28. New England Patriots: OT Derek Sherrod, Miss. St.-
While I like the idea of the Patriots grabbing a playmaker, I’m thinking they will take the more practical approach at take an offensive lineman. Sherrod is 4th on my OT board, but I see him as a guy the Patriots will like. He can play on either side and is more of a pass blocker than a run blocker. The Pats need him, because with Matt Light on the way out, and New England’s once elite offensive line is showing some holes. The Jets exploited some of those weaknesses in the Playoffs, as they were even able to get pressure with 3 and 4 men rushing. Unless the Patriots add a top tackle in free agency, they will have to address it early in the draft.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Torrey Smith
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
Mar. 6th update: Unless they add a FA tackle the Pats need to add a starting caliber guy, and Sherrod is the top guy on the board.
Mar. 20th update: Could the Pats draft two offensive players in the first round? Sure, will they could be another matter. As it stands now Sherrod would be an excellent value pick here and fill a pretty good need.
29. New York Jets: DE Muhammad Wilkerson Temple-
The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Wilkerson. I’ve previously had Cameron Heyward here, but his injury could knock him down a peg. Wilkerson is a little raw, but he flashes big time upside, and looks to be effective both against the rush and the pass. He should ensure that the Jets don’t miss Ellis too much, and will help keep this defense among the league’s elite.
Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.
Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.
Feb. 24th update: A lot will depend on what they lose in free agency, but until then Heyward is the smart pick.
Mar. 2nd update: Heyward is still the tentative pick, but I do believe there are a number of directions the Jets could go.
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Cameron Heyward
Mar. 20th update: I like Wilkerson for the Jets and I think he is going to be the type of guy who starts early in his career.
30. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder, Colorado -
Nate Solder is a boom or bust tackle, and I consider him the 5th best OT in the draft. I do think he will go higher than others and remain a first round pick because of that unlimited upside. I liked what I saw from Solder in the offensive lineman drills at the Combine, but his lack of upper body strength does worry me. He’s a good fit for Chicago, given his quickness, but he needs to maintain leverage if he is going to be a star.
pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love
Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.
pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Derek Sherrod
Mar. 6th update: The Bears need to come out of this draft with an offensive tackle, otherwise I really doubt they’ll be able to come anywhere close to replicating their success from last year.
Mar. 20th update: With Solder’s good Pro Day I think he is now locked into the 1st round.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-
I’ve had Pouncey going to the Steelers for quite some time, but I could see him off the board by this pick. If that is the case Pittsburgh should waste no time turning in their card for Carimi, who is a perfect fit for them. Last season both of their starting tackles missed a significant amount of time due to injury, so it is a major need for Pittsburgh. Carimi could have been born to play in Pittsburgh as he is a pure road grinder, with a blue collar attitude. He will be devastating in run blocking and more than hold his own in pass blocking. He’s probably a better fit on the right side, but since both tackles need upgraded he fits in Pittsburgh.
Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.
Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.
Feb. 24 update: I still think Pouncey and Pouncey is a dream scenario for the Steelers offensive line. Now if Willie Colon or Ike Taylor leave it could change their strategy.
pick change: previous selection OG Mike Pouncey
Mar. 6th update: I love the Carimi to the Steelers idea. I think he is just the blue collar, power running guy that they are looking for.
Mar. 20th update: Carimi will likely get passed up as a RT only in most systems, but in Pittsburgh’s power scheme he could play on the blind side.
32. Green Bay Packers: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-
This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. A good young receiver like Torrey Smith, does make some sense for the Packers. Their window is now, and adding weapons for Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority. Smith has the speed and quickness to help stretch the field, and be a home run threat.
Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Titus Young
Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a pretty good Combine overall and should make a strong case for being the Packers pick. They could look at another area, but I think the idea of adding a top weapon will prevail.
Mar. 6th update: This is a pick that could go in any number of directions, but the Packers are pretty definite to lose James Jones this season, so they could look long and hard at WR.
Mar. 20th update: I’ll be pretty shocked if the Packers would leave Smith still on the board. He is a good value here and a big weapon upgrade than some of the Packers current receivers.
by Steve Shoup
2011 NFL Mock Draft Picks 17-32 Updated Mar. 2nd
March 3, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
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17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): DE J.J Watt, Wisconsin-
The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Given their propensity to focus on defense I think that is where they will look. While they could go for one of the top rush guys on the board, I think they will target J.J. Watt here. He improves their pass rush from his end position and will help free up their linebackers. I’m sure the Patriots will want one of the top rush linebackers, but I don’t see them reaching for a guy like Houston or Ayers here, not with Watt still on the board.
New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith
Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.
Feb. 25th update: Watt almost looks like he was born to be a Patriot, and while there are some other interesting options I still see this as they way they go.
Mar. 2nd: Watt blew up the combine, but unfortunately for him so did a number of other players. Watt is basically a borderline top 10 talent, so getting him at 17 is fantastic value.
18. San Diego Chargers: OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-
The Chargers have franchised Vincent Jackson so at least one of their receivers are coming back. While they could still look at Julio Jones here, I think the Chargers take the best player on the board. They need a defensive end, but I don’t think there is anyone here who is top 20 worthy, so consider them a prime target to trade up. If they stay where they are Robert Quinn, would make a good selection. Rush linebacker isn’t a major need, but Larry English has just been average so far, and Antwan Applewhite is just a decent starter. Not to mention Shaun Phillips is getting up there in age, so San Diego could get some use out of Quinn. At the Combine I had some worries about Quinn standing up, but he is such a talent that it shouldn’t matter. Quinn has top 5 ability, but missing a season and an average Combine could push him down.
pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt
pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones
Feb. 25th update: I’d still be pretty shocked to see Jordan fall this far, but it is possible. If he does the Chargers almost have to take him.
pick change:Feb. 24th previous selection DE Cam Jordan.
19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-
Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.
Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.
Feb. 17th update: I know some people
are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.
Feb. 25th update: Ayers to the Giants is one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft, and barring them landing a top LB in free agency I can’t see how they look elsewhere.
Mar. 2nd update: I wasn’t thrilled with Ayers at the Combine, and considered moving him down, but I think what is more likely is he is now the late teens-early 20′s player, that I’ve been slotting him as. He still is a great fit for the G-Men, and should be near the top of their draft board.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-
I’ve been mocking them an offensive tackle for some time, but I really think Tampa could be happy with Ryan Kerrigan. He has fallen some in my book and this is a bit high for him, but he can get after the quarterback. Sacks didn’t come easy for the Buccaneers last season, and that has to change for them to take their game to the next level and become a playoff team. I worry about Kerrigan in the ground game, but I do still like him as a pass rusher.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi
Mar. 2nd update: Kerrigan blew up at the Combine, and really showed great athleticism. He even answered some questions about standing up as an OLB. I think Kerrigan is a great fit for Tampa and should be a fantastic pass rusher at the next level.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-
The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.
Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.
Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.
Feb. 24th update: 3-4′s succeed because of their line (which is improving) and their pass rush, adding Houston ensures the latter of those two is going to be very good.
Mar. 2nd update: Houston I thought put together a very nice Combine, and showed well in both the athletic and positional drills. Houston is firming up a spot in the top 20-25 rankings and is a good fit in K.C.
22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-
I finally gave in and now have the Colts taking an offensive tackle. They could take one in free agency, but they might not want to pay the high price tag with having to resign Peyton this offseason. Look for the Colts to add a good defensive player or two in free agency to allow them to take an OT. Castonzo I thought preformed well at the Scouting Combine, and looked to be the 2nd best tackle in the draft. I don’t think he is the perfect tackle, but he should be a day one starter and protect Peyton’s blindside for a number of years.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea
Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection DT Christian Ballard
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi
23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado-
The Eagles have a pressing need at offensive tackle and I’m not buying their faith in Winston Justice, but I am starting to think they might look elsewhere in the draft. Corner back is almost as big of a need as offensive line, and Jimmy Smith is moving up draft boards. He is a big strong physical corner, that will have no problem matching up with the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Smith should really shore up that secondary and turn it into a strength. The Eagles will need to still find an offensive tackle, but they should have some options in free agency to do so.
Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.
Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Derrek Sherrod
Mar. 2nd update: Jimmy Smith has some red flags, but the Eagles have been known to take chances on people. He has fantastic talent so they are getting an elite player, but there are some serious questions.
24. New Orleans Saints: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-
I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. But, with him off the board and the Saints filling their DT need with Shaun Rogers, I could see them looking to upgrade their offensive line. Yes they already have two of the best guards in the league, but Carl Nicks is a restricted free agent, and I’m not sure if they are willing to have both of their guards signed to massive contracts. If they land Pouncey, they could look to trade Nicks, before he is an unrestricted free agent next season. Even if they keep Nicks, they could always start Pouncey at center where, there current starter, Jonathan Goodwin is also currently a free agent.
Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.
pick change: Feb 18th previous selection RB Mark Ingram
Feb. 24th update: There are a couple ways the Saints could go, but adding a DT, could really bring this defense together. I know it is a number of years straight taking a defensive player first, but without another first round quality running back, I can’t see that trend changing.
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DT Drake Nevis
25. Seattle Seahawks: QB Jake Locker, Washington-
Seattle could go in a number of different directions, but Jake Locker’s strong Combine, could propel him back into the first round. I still believe he is a developmental QB, but given his local ties and the need for a long term option, Seattle could pull the trigger on this one. Locker still needs to work on his accuracy and footwork, but he does have a lot of promise.
pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan
Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.
Feb. 24th update: I still like Williams with this pick, but with so many needs, it is very possible they go in a different direction.
pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection QB Jake Locker
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-
The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Harris is a promising young corner, who has the skills to develop into a number one corner. Until then the Ravens will be quite happy with him being number two, and a big upgrade.
Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.
Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.
Feb. 24th update: Corner back has to be number one on the Ravens wish list, and Harris is good value at this spot.
Mar. 2nd update: I think Harris is quickly becoming the 3rd best corner in this draft class. He looks to be a playmaker at the next level and shouldn’t disappoint Ravens fans.
27. Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame-
Although the Falcons need to upgrade their pass rush, there aren’t any good 4-3 ends available at this pick. They could grab a guy like Heyward or Ballard and kick him inside on passing downs, but I’m guessing they go in a different direction. They could target an offensive lineman if they lose one of their starters in free agency, but for now I like Kyle Rudolph with this pick. No it isn’t the wide receiver they are hoping for, but Rudolph, should still be a good weapon in year one, despite being Tony Gonzalez’s understudy. Surround Matt Ryan with as many weapons as possible is key for Atlanta, and Rudolph definitely qualifies.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Julio Jones
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DE Christian Ballard
28. New England Patriots: OT Derek Sherrod, Miss. St.-
While I like the idea of the Patriots grabbing a playmaker, I’m thinking they will take the more practical approach at take an offensive lineman. Sherrod is 4th on my OT board, but I see him as a guy the Patriots will like. He can play on either side and is more of a pass blocker than a run blocker. The Pats need him, because with Matt Light on the way out, and New England’s once elite offensive line is showing some holes. The Jets exploited some of those weaknesses in the Playoffs, as they were even able to get pressure with 3 and 4 men rushing. Unless the Patriots add a top tackle in free agency, they will have to address it early in the draft.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Torrey Smith
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
29. New York Jets: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State-
The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Heyward. While some question his motor, he seems to read the snap count very well for a college player and a solid assortment of moves. The Jets will be quite pleased with Heyward going forward and he should help keep their defense near the top.
Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.
Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.
Feb. 24th update: A lot will depend on what they lose in free agency, but until then Heyward is the smart pick.
Mar. 2nd update: Heyward is still the tentative pick, but I do believe there are a number of directions the Jets could go.
30. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder, Colorado -
Nate Solder is a boom or bust tackle, and I consider him the 5th best OT in the draft. I do think he will go higher than others and remain a first round pick because of that unlimited upside. I liked what I saw from Solder in the offensive lineman drills at the Combine, but his lack of upper body strength does worry me. He’s a good fit for Chicago, given his quickness, but he needs to maintain leverage if he is going to be a star.
pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love
Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.
pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Derek Sherrod
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-
I’ve had Pouncey going to the Steelers for quite some time, but I could see him off the board by this pick. If that is the case Pittsburgh should waste no time turning in their card for Carimi, who is a perfect fit for them. Last season both of their starting tackles missed a significant amount of time due to injury, so it is a major need for Pittsburgh. Carimi could have been born to play in Pittsburgh as he is a pure road grinder, with a blue collar attitude. He will be devastating in run blocking and more than hold his own in pass blocking. He’s probably a better fit on the right side, but since both tackles need upgraded he fits in Pittsburgh.
Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.
Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.
Feb. 24 update: I still think Pouncey and Pouncey is a dream scenario for the Steelers offensive line. Now if Willie Colon or Ike Taylor leave it could change their strategy.
pick change: previous selection OG Mike Pouncey
32. Green Bay Packers: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-
This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. A good young receiver like Torrey Smith, does make some sense for the Packers. Their window is now, and adding weapons for Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority. Smith has the speed and quickness to help stretch the field, and be a home run threat.
Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Titus Young
Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a pretty good Combine overall and should make a strong case for being the Packers pick. They could look at another area, but I think the idea of adding a top weapon will prevail.
by Steve Shoup
2011 NFL Mock Draft Picks 17-32 Updated Feb. 24th
February 25, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): DE J.J Watt, Wisconsin-
The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Given their propensity to focus on defense I think that is where they will look. While they could go for one of the top rush guys on the board, I think they will target J.J. Watt here. He improves their pass rush from his end position and will help free up their linebackers. I’m sure the Patriots will want one of the top rush linebackers, but I don’t see them reaching for a guy like Houston or Ayers here, not with Watt still on the board.
New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith
Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.
Feb. 25th update: Watt almost looks like he was born to be a Patriot, and while there are some other interesting options I still see this as they way they go.
18. San Diego Chargers: DE Cam Jordan, Cal-
The Chargers have franchised Vincent Jackson so at least one of their receivers are coming back. While they could still look at Julio Jones here, I think the Chargers take the best player on the board in Cam Jordan. Jordan is a great young defensive end that absolutely dominated during Senior Bowl week. Jordan fills a big need for the Chargers and makes their top defense even better. If they can’t land a receiver or retain Floyd in free agency this could change quickly.
pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt
pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones
Feb. 25th update: I’d still be pretty shocked to see Jordan fall this far, but it is possible. If he does the Chargers almost have to take him.
19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-
Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.
Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.
Feb. 17th update: I know some people are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.
Feb. 25th update: Ayers to the Giants is one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft, and barring them landing a top LB in free agency I can’t see how they look elsewhere.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-
I’ve been mocking them an offensive tackle for some time, but I really think Tampa could be happy with Ryan Kerrigan. He has fallen some in my book and this is a bit high for him, but he can get after the quarterback. Sacks didn’t come easy for the Buccaneers last season, and that has to change for them to take their game to the next level and become a playoff team. I worry about Kerrigan in the ground game, but I do still like him as a pass rusher.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi
21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-
The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.
Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.
Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.
Feb. 24th update: 3-4′s succeed because of their line (which is improving) and their pass rush, adding Houston ensures the latter of those two is going to be very good.
22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-
I finally gave in and now have the Colts taking an offensive tackle. They could take one in free agency, but they might not want to pay the high price tag with having to resign Peyton this offseason. Look for the Colts to add a good defensive player or two in free agency to allow them to take an OT. Carimi isn’t the perfect fit for the Colts as he is a better run blocker (which given their ground game isn’t a bad thing), but he will also be an upgrade in the pass blocking department as well. He’s a day one starter and that is what’s most important for the Colts, because their time to win is now.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea
Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection DT Christian Ballard
23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado-
The Eagles have a pressing need at offensive tackle and I’m not buying their faith in Winston Justice, but I am starting to think they might look elsewhere in the draft. Corner back is almost as big of a need as offensive line, and Jimmy Smith is moving up draft boards. He is a big strong physical corner, that will have no problem matching up with the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Smith should really shore up that secondary and turn it into a strength. The Eagles will need to still find an offensive tackle, but they should have some options in free agency to do so.
Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.
Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Derrek Sherrod
24. New Orleans Saints: DT Drake Nevis, LSU-
I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. With him off the board I think the Saints will look at shoring up their defensive line. Drake Nevis would be a good fit next to Sedrick Ellis and give New Orleans a strong front four. Nevis holds up well against the run and gets a very good pass rush. His addition would have, DC Gregg Williams salivating, and should help keep the Saints defense highly productive.
Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.
pick change: Feb 18th previous selection RB Mark Ingram
Feb. 24th update: There are a couple ways the Saints could go, but adding a DT, could really bring this defense together. I know it is a number of years straight taking a defensive player first, but without another first round quality running back, I can’t see that trend changing.
25. Seattle Seahawks: CB Aaron Williams, Texas-
The Seahawks has a number of needs despite being a playoff team, while I could see them addressing their pass rush or long term quarterback situation, I think they will look to add a top notch corner. I have Williams and Brandon Harris in basically a dead heat to be the 3rd CB off the board, but think Williams makes a bit more sense for the Seahawks. He is a little bit bigger and taller, which should matchup better against the top receivers in the NFC West.
pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan
Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.
Feb. 24th update: I still like Williams with this pick, but with so many needs, it is very possible they go in a different direction.
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-
The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Harris is a promising young corner, who has the skills to develop into a number one corner. Until then the Ravens will be quite happy with him being number two, and a big upgrade.
Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.
Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.
Feb. 24th update: Corner back has to be number one on the Ravens wish list, and Harris is good value at this spot.
27. Atlanta Falcons: DT/DE Christian Ballard, Iowa-
This pick could change in a hurry if the Falcons lose one or more of their starting offensive linemen in free agency, but right now their top need is to upgrade their pass rush. Now I know Ballard doesn’t seem like a good fit, because he is traditionally a 4-3 DT, but despite having tackle size he has end speed. Ballard has a quick first step and is strong enough to bull rush his way to the quarterback. I see Ballard playing end on early downs and kicking inside to tackle, on passing situations. I know receiver is still a need for this team, but their primary focus needs to be their pass rush.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Julio Jones
28. New England Patriots: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-
While I like the idea of the Patriots grabbing a playmaker, I’m thinking they will take the more practical approach at take an offensive lineman. Castonzo is a local product, but that isn’t why he will end up a Patriot. The Pats need him, because with Matt Light on the way out, New England’s once elite offensive line is showing some holes. The Jets exploited some of those weaknesses in the Playoffs, as they were even able to get pressure with 3 and 4 men rushing. Unless the Patriots add a top tackle in free agency, they will have to address it early in the draft.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Torrey Smith
29. New York Jets: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State-
The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Heyward. While some question his motor, he seems to read the snap count very well for a college player and a solid assortment of moves. The Jets will be quite pleased with Heyward going forward and he should help keep their defense near the top.
Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.
Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.
Feb. 24th update: A lot will depend on what they lose in free agency, but until then Heyward is the smart pick.
30. Chicago Bears: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St. -
With no trades this pick could happen, but come draft day I’d be shocked if one of the top 4 tackles lasted to 30. That being said the Bears are in the market for a tackle and if needs be I’m sure they will be a team looking to trade up to ensure they get one. Sherrod is an interesting tackle prospect, I think he is very capable of playing either spot, and he has the upside to develop into a Pro Bowler. He’s not as much as a road grinder as some of the other tackles, but he should do okay in the run game. The real area he excels is pass blocking, something I’m sure Jay Cutler will appreciate.
pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love
Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.
pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection Nate Solder
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-
Sure it is a bit of a feel good story, but Mike Pouncey is deserving of hearing his name called in the first round. Now I don’t think he is as refined as his All-Pro brother Maurkice, but he has that potential. Mike fits better as a guard than a center, which is where the Steelers biggest need lies. He should step into their right guard spot and team up with his brother to form a great interior line. If Willie Colon can come back from injury the Steelers offensive line will go from a weakness to one of their strengths. Pouncey could get taken earlier, but I think it is a foregone conclusion that he won’t get past the Steelers first round pick.
Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.
Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.
Feb. 24 update: I still think Pouncey and Pouncey is a dream scenario for the Steelers offensive line. Now if Willie Colon or Ike Taylor leave it could change their strategy.
32. Green Bay Packers: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-
This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. A good young receiver like Torrey Smith, does make some sense for the Packers. Their window is now, and adding weapons for Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority. Smith has the speed and quickness to help stretch the field, and be a home run threat.
Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Titus Young
by Steve Shoup
NFL Mock Draft: Round 1 Picks 17-32 Feb. 18th Update:
February 18, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): DE J.J Watt, Wisconsin-
The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Given their propensity to focus on defense I think that is where they will look. While they could go for one of the top rush guys on the board, I think they will target J.J. Watt here. He improves their pass rush from his end position and will help free up their linebackers. I’m sure the Patriots will want one of the top rush linebackers, but I don’t see them reaching for a guy like Houston or Ayers here, not with Watt still on the board.
New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith
Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.
18. San Diego Chargers: DE Cam Jordan, Cal-
The Chargers have franchised Vincent Jackson so at least one of their receivers are coming back. While they could still look at Julio Jones here, I think the Chargers take the best player on the board in Cam Jordan. Jordan is a great young defensive end that absolutely dominated during Senior Bowl week. Jordan fills a big need for the Chargers and makes their top defense even better. If they can’t land a receiver or retain Floyd in free agency this could change quickly.
pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt
pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones
19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-
Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.
Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.
Feb. 17th update: I know some people are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-
The Buccaneers biggest need is defensive end, but unless they are comfortable playing Justin Houston or Ryan Kerrigan there full time, they don’t have much to choose from. Most of the best options profile as a better 3-4 end or rush linebacker. It is possible they pull the trigger, but if they have already addressed the position via free agency (which they should) they can hold off a round or two. I think Tampa should look to acquire a starting OT in the first round. I know James Lee handled RT admirably this past season, but he was far from perfect, and he might not hold up for a full season. Tampa needs to address their offensive line, to keep their new found offense running on all cylinders, and Carimi would be an excellent fit. He profiles at either tackle position, and should be a very good RT for the Bucs for the next 10 years. Carimi is a guy who could fall, since he looks to be a much better RT, and teams usually want to see anyone they draft in the first round move permanently to the left side at some point. Carimi is an absolute mauler and will be a big addition to their ground game.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-
The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.
Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.
Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.
22. Indianapolis Colts: DT Christian Ballard, Iowa-
The Colts have three main needs RB, OT, DT this offseason, and while and offensive tackle would also benefit the running game, I’m thinking that defensive tackle is the way the Colts go. Earlier I mocked Stephen Paea to the Colts, but a recent knee injury will probably set him back some. While I think this is a bit high on Ballard, this seems like it makes too much sense for the Colts. Indianapolis prefers smaller and quicker defensive tackles, and Ballard fits that to a ‘T’. He should get good penetration on the inside, which can really help their ends get more sacks.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea
Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: OT Derrek Sherrod, Mississippi State-
The Eagles have finally realized that Winston Justice just can’t be an effective offensive tackle, and will need to fix that problem area in the first round of this April’s draft. Corner back and defensive tackle will also be on their wish list, but I’m guessing offensive tackle is their top priority. Sherrod is a player I really like, but I don’t love. He offers the versatility to grow into a left tackle down the road, but as long as Michael Vick is the starting quarterback, RT is the prime position on the Eagles offensive line.
Sherrod is a mix bag for me, but I think teams will fall in love with him enough to make him a first rounder. He needs some refinement, but the tools are definitely there.
Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.
Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.
24. New Orleans Saints: DT Drake Nevis, LSU-
I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. With him off the board I think the Saints will look at shoring up their defensive line. Drake Nevis would be a good fit next to Sedrick Ellis and give New Orleans a strong front four. Nevis holds up well against the run and gets a very good pass rush. His addition would have, DC Gregg Williams salivating, and should help keep the Saints defense highly productive.
Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.
pick change: Feb 3rd. previous selection RB Mark Ingram
25. Seattle Seahawks: CB Aaron Williams, Texas-
The Seahawks has a number of needs despite being a playoff team, while I could see them addressing their pass rush or long term quarterback situation, I think they will look to add a top notch corner. I have Williams and Brandon Harris in basically a dead heat to be the 3rd CB off the board, but think Williams makes a bit more sense for the Seahawks. He is a little bit bigger and taller, which should matchup better against the top receivers in the NFC West.
pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan
Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-
The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Harris is a promising young corner, who has the skills to develop into a number one corner. Until then the Ravens will be quite happy with him being number two, and a big upgrade.
Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.
Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.
27. Atlanta Falcons: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-
This is the dream scenario for the Falcons, but it could come close to fruition. Receivers have been known to fall in the draft, and with all the teams needing a receiver having another major hole to fix it makes this scenario plausible. For the Falcons they will add a huge weapon to go along with one of the best offenses in the NFL. There are still questions at TE and DE, but those can be addressed later.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith
28. New England Patriots: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-
The Patriots could go in a number of directions with this pick, but I think they will shock some people and grab a playmaker. Smith offers great speed and would give Tom Brady another good young target. While they got by with utilizing their tight ends, New England needs to add a little bit more talent to their receiving corps.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young
29. New York Jets: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State-
The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Heyward. While some question his motor, he seems to read the snap count very well for a college player and a solid assortment of moves. The Jets will be quite pleased with Heyward going forward and he should help keep their defense near the top.
Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.
Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.
30. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder, Colorado-
I have some serious questions about Solder, and worry that he could end up a bust, the Bears success means that they can’t be choosy. Solder is still a top tackle prospect with the tools to become elite. And Chicago has to do a better job of protecting Jay Cutler next season so they will welcome Solder with open arms.
pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love
Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-
Sure it is a bit of a feel good story, but Mike Pouncey is deserving of hearing his name called in the first round. Now I don’t think he is as refined as his All-Pro brother Maurkice, but he has that potential. Mike fits better as a guard than a center, which is where the Steelers biggest need lies. He should step into their right guard spot and team up with his brother to form a great interior line. If Willie Colon can come back from injury the Steelers offensive line will go from a weakness to one of their strengths. Pouncey could get taken earlier, but I think it is a foregone conclusion that he won’t get past the Steelers first round pick.
Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.
Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.
32. Green Bay Packers: WR Titus Young, Boise State-
This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. Young would be a big time weapon, for a team that loves to throw the ball down the field. I could see Green Bay trying to make their top offense even better, and Young would be the man to do so.
Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget
by Steve Shoup
NFL Mock Draft 2/03/11 Picks 17-32
February 3, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): DE J.J Watt, Wisconsin-
The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Given their propensity to focus on defense I think that is where they will look. While they could go for one of the top rush guys on the board, I think they will target J.J. Watt here. He improves their pass rush from his end position and will help free up their linebackers. I’m sure the Patriots will want one of the top rush linebackers, but I don’t see them reaching for a guy like Houston or Ayers here, not with Watt still on the board.
New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.
pick change: previous selection OLB Aldon Smith
18. San Diego Chargers: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-
The Chargers draft strategy could be determined by free agency particularly if they lose one of their top receivers. If they retain their own talent, then OT, DE and OLB become their three biggest needs. Right now I have to believe that they can keep only one of Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd (not to mention Naanee), so I do think receiver will be a top target. While there are a few offensive tackle options, as well as those at DE and OLB, I think they won’t let one of the top 3 receivers (Green, Baldwin, Jones) slip by them. If all those guys are off the board they could look in a different direction, but with Jones there he has to be their pick. Assuming the retain Jackson (which is the most likely via the Franchise Tag), they will give Rivers a truly elite receiving corps.
pick change, previous pick: DE J.J. Watt
19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-
Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.
Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-
The Buccaneers biggest need is defensive end, but unless they are comfortable playing Justin Houston their full time, there aren’t many quality options for them here. Guys like Bailey, Heyward, and Jordan are surefire picks as 3-4 ends, but don’t profile as well in the 4-3 (at least at end). The Buccaneers should look to address the position in free agency as well as later in the draft (unless they are looking to trade up), and look to acquire a starting OT in the first round. I know James Lee handled RT admirably this past season, but he was far from perfect, and he might not hold up for a full season. Tampa needs to address their offensive line, to keep their new found offense running on all cylinders, and Castonzo would be an excellent fit. He profiles at either tackle position, and should be a very good RT for the Bucs for the next 10 years. Castonzo is one of my favorite players in this draft class and I’m a big believer he will be successful.
pick change: previous selection OT Nate Solder
21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-
The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.
Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a compliment to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.
22. Indianapolis Colts: DT Christian Ballard, Iowa-
The Colts have three main needs RB, OT, DT this offseason, and while and offensive tackle would also benefit the running game, I’m thinking that defensive tackle is the way the Colts go. Earlier I mocked Stephen Paea to the Colts, but a recent knee injury will probably set him back some. While I think this is a bit high on Ballard, this seems like it makes too much sense for the Colts. Indianapolis prefers smaller and quicker defensive tackles, and Ballard fits that to a ‘T’. He should get good penetration on the inside, which can really help their ends get more sacks.
pick change: previous selection DT Stephen Paea
23. Philadelphia Eagles: OT Derrek Sherrod, Mississippi State-
The Eagles have finally realized that Winston Justice just can’t be an effective offensive tackle, and will need to fix that problem area in the first round of this April’s draft. Corner back and defensive tackle will also be on their wish list, but I’m guessing offensive tackle is their top priority. Sherrod is a player I really like, but I don’t love. He offers the versatility to grow into a left tackle down the road, but as long as Michael Vick is the starting quarterback, RT is the prime position on the Eagles offensive line.
Sherrod is a mix bag for me, but I think teams will fall in love with him enough to make him a first rounder. He needs some refinement, but the tools are definitely there.
Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.
24. New Orleans Saints: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-
The Saints could look to address their front seven or even their offensive line (especially if they lose any key free agents), but I think they will look to add a running back here. Pierre Thomas looks to be on his way out the door, and unless Reggie Bush moves the decimal point over to the left one place on his $11.8 million salary, he will be joining him. Chris Ivory looked good this past season, but he had nagging injuries all year, and Lisfranc fracture that required surgery this offseason. He might be healthy by training camp, but probably won’t be 100%, so New Orleans needs to find a better option. Ingram would be a good safe choice for the Saints, one that would ensure their running back woes didn’t lead to their downfall this season.
Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.
25. Seattle Seahawks: CB Aaron Williams, Texas-
The Seahawks has a number of needs despite being a playoff team, while I could see them addressing their pass rush or long term quarterback situation, I think they will look to add a top notch corner. I have Williams and Brandon Harris in basically a dead heat to be the 3rd CB off the board, but think Williams makes a bit more sense for the Seahawks. He is a little bit bigger and taller, which should matchup better against the top receivers in the NFC West.
pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-
The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Harris is a promising young corner, who has the skills to develop into a number one corner. Until then the Ravens will be quite happy with him being number two, and a big upgrade.
Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.
27. Atlanta Falcons: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-
Defensive end might be the Falcons biggest need, but I don’t see any great fits here (a few decent ones, but no one that ‘wows’ me). I think the Falcons will look to adding a receiver that can compliment Roddy White with this pick. Smith is a receiver with good size and speed and while I think he is more of an early 2nd rounder this isn’t much of a reach. I think Atlanta will target DE and OL in free agency and later in the draft, but grab a playmaker here.
pick change: previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph
28. New England Patriots: WR Titus Young, Boise State-
The Patriots could go in a number of directions with this pick, but I think they will shock some people and grab a playmaker. Young showed that he was the most explosive player at the Senior Bowl, and the Patriots still haven’t found a down field threat to compliment their short and intermediate passing game. They need a big receiver as well, but my guess is they will value adding an explosive player like Young.
pick change: previous selection DE Allen Bailey
29. New York Jets: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State-
The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Heyward. While some question his motor, he seems to read the snap count very well for a college player and a solid assortment of moves. The Jets will be quite pleased with Heyward going forward and he should help keep their defense near the top.
Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.
30. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder, Colorado-
I have some serious questions about Solder, and worry that he could end up a bust, the Bears success means that they can’t be choosy. Solder is still a top tackle prospect with the tools to become elite. And Chicago has to do a better job of protecting Jay Cutler next season so they will welcome Solder with open arms.
pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love
Picks 31 and 32 yet to be determined
31. Green Bay Packers: DE Corey Liuget, Illinois-
The Packers will need to keep adding talent to their 3-4 defense, and look to have a big hole at one of the defensive end spots. Liuget, could profile as a DT in a 4-3, but should be the perfect fit for the Packers at defensive end. He had a monster year and shows a good bit of penetration for a guy of his size. Green Bay should be quite happy with what he becomes, and he would give them the elite D-line they are looking for.
Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-
Sure it is a bit of a feel good story, but Mike Pouncey is deserving of hearing his name called in the first round. Now I don’t think he is as refined as his All-Pro brother Maurkice, but he has that potential. Mike fits better as a guard than a center, which is where the Steelers biggest need lies. He should step into their right guard spot and team up with his brother to form a great interior line. If Willie Colon can come back from injury the Steelers offensive line will go from a weakness to one of their strengths. Pouncey could get taken earlier, but I think it is a foregone conclusion that he won’t get past the Steelers first round pick.
Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.
