New England Patriots Draft Grades

Round 1, Pick 21 (21) (From Bengals)                 Chandler Jones            DE                    Syracuse: Grade C+

Round 1, Pick 25 (25) (From Broncos)                Dont’a Hightower       ILB                   Alabama: Grade B+

Round 2, Pick 16 (48) (From Raiders)                 Tavon Wilson              FS                     Illinois: Grade F

Round 3, Pick 27 (90) (From Packers)                  Jake Bequette             DE                    Arkansas: Grade C+

Round 6, Pick 27 (197) (From Packers)               Nate Ebner                  DB                   Ohio State: Grade D

Round 7, Pick 17 (224) (From Jets                     Alfonzo Dennard         CB                    Nebraska: Grade A

through Packers)

Round 7, Pick 28 (235) (From Packers)               Jeremy Ebert               WR                  Northwestern: Grade C

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS FINAL 7-ROUND MOCK DRAFT: 

1^st Round:

27. New England Patriots (via New Orleans)- SS Mark Barron, Alabama:

The Patriots need to find some major defensive upgrades in this draft. If Mark Barron is on the board they will probably grab him. Pairing him with 2009 2nd rounder Patrick Chung could give New England a very impressive safety pairing to build their defense around.

31.  New England Patriots: DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State:

The Pats go in a number of different ways here, but I think they look to address their defensive line with this pick. Pairing Worthy with Vince Wilfork inside will cause a number of issues for opposing offenses.

2^nd Round:

48. New England Patriots (via Oakland)- DE Andre Branch, Clemson

62. New England Patriots- CB Trumaine Johnson, Montana

3^rd Round:

93. New England Patriots- RB Robert Turbin, Utah State

4^th Round:

126. New England Patriots- C David Molk, Michigan

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UPDATED March 24, 2012

New England Patriots Team Needs In Priority Order:

1. Defensive End

2. Cornerback

3. Safety

4. Defensive tackle

5. Offensive Line depth

6. Linebacker depth

7. Running back

BUFFALO BILLS:

3. Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama: Dareus is a great pick for the Bills, he fills a major need a Buffalo and very well could be the best player from this class.

34. Aaron Williams, cornerback, Texas: this is a good value pick for the Bills as Williams was a projected first rounder. I know there are concerns that he will need to move to free safety, but Buffalo should find a way to utilize him next season.

68. Kelvin Sheppard, linebacker, LSU: The Bills need some serious help at inside linebacker and Sheppard is a good fit here. I thought this was slightly too high for him, but it fills a big time need.

100. Da’Norris Searcy, safety, UNC: Searcy is a good mid-round strong safety candidate. While he will probably not be a starter next year he should contribute on special teams.

122. Chris Hairston, tackle, Clemson: Buffalo desperately needs offensive linemen. While Hairston isn’t an elite player I could see him being a starting caliber RT for multiple years.

133. Johnny White, running back, UNC: This might have been a slight reach for the Bills, but not so much that it negates their strong draft.

169. Chris White, linebacker, Mississippi St: Good late round pick here, White is a very active player and should help strengthen their LB corps. I see him primarily at OLB, but he can play inside as well.

206. Justin Rogers, cornerback, Richmond: I love this pick of Rogers here. If Williams is moved to FS, then the CB depth is pretty shallow. Even if Williams does stay at CB, Rogers has some nice upside and should be a contributor on special teams.

245. Michael Jasper, defensive tackle, Bethel (TN.): Jasper wasn’t on many draft boards, but he is a big kid who projects at NT and has decent athletic ability considering his size.

GRADE: B+

I wasn’t a fan of not getting an offensive lineman with their first four picks, but they got good players there and really strengthened their defense. I also don’t fault Buffalo at all for not addressing the quarterback position in this class. Dareus was a far superior player to any signal caller, and a smart move for the Bills. There really wasn’t a QB who was going to outplay Fitzpatrick these next two years, so why waste a top pick on a project. White is the only pick that has me shaking my head at all, while the rest of them are right on the money. Very good draft overall for the Bills and one that I think will really improve this team.

MIAMI DOLPHINS:

15. Mike Pouncey, guard/center, Florida: This might be a slight reach for Pouncey, but he fills a big need for them, and obviously has a good pedigree.

62. Daniel Thomas, running back, Kansas St: The Dolphins needed a running back, but they paid a pretty high price to get one. I like Thomas, but this seems like a bit of a reach.

111. Edmond Gates, wide receiver, Abilene Christian: Gates is a good value pick here, and gives the Dolphins a nice 3rd WR.

174. Charles Clay, tight end, Tulsa: Miami hasn’t had an offensive minded tight end in some time, so this is a good addition here.

231. Frank Kearse, defensive tackle, Alabama A&M: Kearse is a backup NT prospect, and a solid value here.

235. Jimmy Wilson, cornerback, Montana: Miami needed some secondary depth so this is a decent value pick.

GRADE: C

While the Dolphins addressed two of their biggest needs with their top two picks in Pouncey and Thomas, I think they were both reaches. I especially didn’t like the Thomas pick since they had to use 3 picks to move up just 17 slots. Thomas is a nice back but I think they could have gotten similar value in the 3rd, while still having their 5th and 7th rounders. Gates and Clay are nice picks for their slots and offer a lot of potential but I don’t think it’s enough to balance some of the risks they took earlier.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

17. Nate Solder, tackle, Colorado: Solder is a nice LT prospect but I think this is a slight reach and their were better OT’s on the board. Solder has uber potential, but he also has a higher bust factor than you’d typically see in this high of a pick.

33. Ras-I Dowling, corerback, Virginia: I love this Dowling pick, I think he is a day one starter for the Patriots (if they need him to be). He has shutdown corner potential and gives them great value here.

56. Shane Vereen, running back, California: this is a bit a reach for Vereen, but he is a good prospect and help strengthens New England’s running game.

73. Stevan Ridley, running back, LSU: Ridley is a nice big back, but he was probably taken a round and a half early. He’s a good special teams player so that will help, but I’m not sure if these backs will make enough of a difference.

74. Ryan Mallett, quarterback Arkansas: Mallett is a great value pick here and this is a good situation for him. If he shapes up, Mallett could either be the successor to Brady or a major trade chip.

138. Marcus Cannon, guard, TCU: I absolutely love this pick for the Pats. Cannon has top 50 potential, but fell because oh his concern with cancer. While it is a serious issue it seems to be very curable and he should make a full recovery. If he does this is an absolute steal.

159. Lee Smith, tight end, Marshall: I know the Pats drafted two tight ends last year, but Smith is still a good pick for them here. Alge Crumpler actually had the 2nd most snaps among NE’s tight ends. Crumpler was primarily a blocking TE and that is exactly the role Smith will play.

194. Markell Carter, linebacker, Central Arkansas: Carter has some outside linebacker potential, but this is a reach pick here. New England does know what they are looking for so they might be on to something.

219. Malcolm Williams, cornerback, TCU: The Patriots secondary needed some depth so this has some value. I’m guessing though he is a long shot to make the team.

GRADE: B

While I really liked the Patriots draft I by no means loved it. With 6 of the top 100 picks I expected a bit more from them. And while they did land a 1st and a 2nd next year, I feel they should have executed better this season. Far too many reaches in the top 3 rounds for my liking and New England didn’t even touch their needs at DE, OLB, or S with their top picks.

NEW YORK JETS:

30. Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive end, Temple: This is a great value pick for the Jets as I think he can step in early and replace Shaun Ellis.

94. Kenrick Ellis, defensive tackle, Hampton: There are some serious red flag concerns about Ellis, but I do like this pick for NY. They have had serious questions at NT for the last couple years and this should begin to answer them.

126. Bilal Powell, running back, Louisville: I know LT is getting up there in age but I don’t get this pick at all. Powell is a nice running back but not a need.

153. Jeremy Kerley, wide receiver, TCU: I love this pick for the Jets. Three of their top four receivers are free agents and I can’t see them all resigning. Kerley is a nice slot prospect and I think he can have a nice impact.

208. Greg McElroy, quarterback, Alabama: I actually like this pick for the Jets as I think McElroy could be a very good backup quarterback in time. He won’t ever be a star, but he’ll be the type of guy who can step in for a 2-4 week stretch if the starter is injured.

227. Scotty McKnight, wide receiver, Colorado: I know this was a favor to Mark Sanchez (maybe he’ll actually complete passes now), but it seems a bit much. He was likely to be undrafted and would have signed whenever free agency started so it seems like a waste.

GRADE: C

I’m really not a fan of this draft as I feel the Jets didn’t address their needs and overdrafted too many players. Wilkerson is a fine pick, but Ellis was a bit of a risk. I realize it was a need, but if Ellis doesn’t pan out this draft class will set the Jets back. I can see drafting a receiver and maybe a quarterback, but grabbing an extra WR just as a favor to your quarterback is insane. As for drafting a runningback I just don’t get it at all. Had the Jets had extra picks I would have been more okay with this class, but they were down a 2nd rounder, and didn’t add a single OLB, OL, or DB. At best this looks like a 2 player class, and that kinda worries me.

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Draft Picks:

Rd 1, Pick 17 (17)
Rd 1, Pick 28 (28)
Rd 2, Pick 1 (33)
Rd 2, Pick 28 (60)
Rd 3, Pick 10 (74)
Rd 3, Pick 28 (92)
Rd 4, Pick 28 (125)
Rd 5, Pick 28 (159)
Rd 6, Pick 28 (193)

Needs:

1. Outside Linebacker: While the Patriots have a good all-around defense, they lack that impact pass rusher that can impact a game with just his presence on the field. With 6 picks in the top 100, New England should easily be able to find an impact pass rusher in the early rounds.

2. Offensive Tackle: With Matt Light a free agent, and on the downside of his career, New England could look to add a replacement early in this draft.

3. Wide Receiver: The Patriots traded away their big play receiver last year, and while they did alright without Randy Moss, they could use an early pick on a pass catcher. It’s not a huge need, but given their number of picks, and already talented roster, adding a potential number 1 or 2, could really help the Patriots.

4. Defensive End: The Patriots know that to succeed in a 3-4 it all starts upfront. The Patriots have a good defensive line, but they will be relying heavily on a couple veteran players. Adding an early round DE could really turn New England’s defense to a top level unit.

5. Safety: Brandon Meriweather has had some offseason issues that could lead to a prolonged suspension. Even if Meriweather avoids a suspension, he will be a free agent after next season and his play has been streaky at best.

6. Running back: The Patriots could use their stockpile of picks to look for a feature back. The Patriots ground game was solid this past season, but it could use another horse in it’s stable.

7. Guard: Stephen Neal is retiring which leaves a big hole at guard. The Patriots should be able to use one of their backups to step into the starting role, but don’t be surprised if they target a starting guard in this draft. If they promote from within, look for New England to add depth later in the draft.

8. Fullback: The Patriots don’t utilize the fullback position, but they could look to change if they add a talented all-around talent late in the draft. Remember the Patriots didn’t really throw too much to their TE’s (especially two of them), before last season, but that has all changed.

9. Quarterback: Obviously this isn’t a pressing need, but Tom Brady isn’t getting any younger, and New England doesn’t really have a great backup plan if he gets injured. With so many high picks the Patriots could decide to use one on a QB project that could develop behind Brady.

Summary:

New England is in a great position with this draft class, and I expect them to move up and down this draft with ease. Don’t be shocked if they trade up to get a higher first round pick, to add as many impact guys as possible.

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MOCK DRAFT: Round 1: 17-32: Round 2: Round 3: Round 4

65. Carolina Panthers: OG Orlando Franklin, Miami-

The Panthers could go a number of different routes, but if they want to give Jimmy Clausen a legitimate chance they need to improve the line in front of him. They are set at center and tackle, but their guard play was pretty poor last season. Franklin would be a very good addition with this pick and should help improve both their run and pass blocking. I think it is key that the Panthers grab an instant starter with this pick, and I feel that Franklin can step right in.

66. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Jarvis Jenkins, Clemson-

The Bengals need some help in the middle of their defensive line, and Jenkins is the best DT still left on the board. Jenkins is a disruptive force with a great first step. He is the type of DT that will help against both the run and the pass, with pass rush being his overall strength. This could be a slight reach for him, but not enough that is should be a concern.

67. Denver Broncos: FS Quinton Carter, Oklahoma-

I know this is a lot of defensive picks for the Broncos, but that was their biggest issue last season. For the most part their offensive line looks good, and they have decent receivers and quarterbacks. While I am not 100% sold on Moreno, he was a first rounder two years ago so he deserves at least one more shot. Free safety was a huge hole for this team last year, and Carter should fill it quite well. With a rebuild D-line and an improving secondary, Denver’s defense (and subsequently the entire team) could make a quick turnaround.

68. Buffalo Bills: OT Marcus Gilbert, Florida-

If the Bills don’t address their offensive line issues in the top 3 rounds this year, they should just fire their G.M. on the spot. Buffalo has some decent weapons at RB and WR, but until they get some protection their offense will always be second rate.

69. Arizona Cardinals: OT/G James Brewer, Indiana-

The Cardinals have to add talent to their offensive line and even if they do address this position in an earlier round a versatile player like Brewer could be a fit here. I think he is limited to either RT or G, but both of those are needs for Arizona. I like Brewer more than most and do see a little bit of the Roger Saffold comparison some people make.

70. Cleveland Browns: DE Pernell McPhee, Miss. State-

The Browns need to add some 4-3 linemen, and McPhee profiles well as a strong left end. He offers decent pass rush and should be a very good run defender as well.

71. Dallas Cowboys: FS Marcus Gilchrest, Clemson-

Dallas needs to go back to fixing their secondary and adding a FS would be the next logical step. While some teams might like Gilchrest as a corner I think he is a much better fit as a free safety. He should at least be a nickel safety as a rookie, and could end up starting next season.

72. New Orleans Saints (from Washington): RB Shane Vereen, California-

Reggie Bush is likely done in New Orleans, and while Thomas was resigned he has been nicked up a bit and Chris Ivory is coming off a big injury, meaning RB is still high on the Saints wish list. Vereen would be a nice change of pace back and fill the role that Bush once held.

73. Houston Texans: CB Davon House, New Mexico State-

Pretty much as long as this pick is on defense the Texans will be making the right choice. House adds quality depth to their corner backs, a group that got torched nonstop last year.

74. New England Patriots (from Minnesota): OLB Dontay Moch, Nevada-

New England needs to add some pass rushing talent this offseason and Moch is a good fit for them. He is a pure speed rusher, but given his athletic ability, his upside is immense. He would do well to go to a team like the Patriots, who already have a lot of surrounding talent so he doesn’t have to be a major focal point of their defense.

75. Detroit Lions: OLB Mason Foster, Washington-

The Lions need linebacker help desperately so doubling up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds makes a lot of sense. The Lions could go from having one of the worst linebacker corps, to one of the most promising. I’m a big Mason Foster fan, and think he is a very good starter at the next level.

76. San Francisco 49ers: WR Tandon Doss, Indiana-

The 49ers could use another weapon to help ensure Gabbert’s transition to the NFL is as smooth as possible. I like Doss as he has deceptive speed and pretty good size. I don’t know if he will ever be a star, but I think he will almost definitely be a capable number 2 receiver. I love the upside and think he is good value for the 3rd round.

77. Tennessee Titans: G Clint Boling, Georgia-

The Titans need to look to upgrade the interior of their offensive line. They likely won’t have a major passing attack next year, so anything the Titans can do to free up Chris Johnson, they have to make a priority. Boling is good value here and should immediately be added to the starting line.

78. St. Louis Rams: DT Jurrell Casey, USC-

The Rams took care of their offensive needs with their first two picks, but they need to make sure they don’t ignore their defensive ones. Although they need a FS, I think they go DT here. Right now they have nothing next to Fred Robbins in the middle, and he is in his early 30′s. I’m not a huge fan of Casey’s but this is where his stock is, and I see him as a good fit in St.Louis, since they already have a good d-line.

79. Miami Dolphins: QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada-

The Dolphins haven’t had much success with drafting mid-round quarterbacks lately, but Kaepernick could change all of that. He has incredible potential and I really believe he will develop into a starting quarterback in this league within two years.

80. Jacksonville Jaguars: S DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson-

The Jags need major upgrades to their secondary, and adding a playmaker like McDaniel would be exactly the type of move they need to make. McDaniel could probably step in from day one and be their starting strong safety.

81. Oakland Raiders: OT Joesph Barksdale, LSU-

The Raiders biggest weakness is the play of their offensive line, so multiple upgrades are needed. Barksdale has a lot of potential, he could end up being their starting right tackle, and has the ability to play there for the next 10 years. If the Raiders can add Wiz and Barksdale, their offense could quickly become one of the better units in the NFL.

82. San Diego Chargers: WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky-

Last year the Chargers dealt with a number of receiver issues, and while for the most part it didn’t affect their overall play, I’m guessing they don’t want to be unprepared again. I know they typically favor bigger receivers, but Cobb is great value for them at this pick and should have a lot of freedom underneath (think Wes Welker), with Jackson stretching the field deep. Cobb also could end up being their primary kick returner if Darren Sproles leaves during free agency.

83. New York Giants: CB Curtis Marsh, Utah State-

The Giants secondary has long been an issue for Big Blue, and should be addressed in the early rounds of the draft. Marsh comes from a small school, but he has a lot of promise. I think he can be at least a nickel corner next year for the Giants and has the potential to be a good starter.

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: MLB Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina-

The Buccaneers defensive front 7 needs quite a bit of work, but after this draft, they could be in pretty good shape. Sturdivant is a player that not many people are talking about, but that I feel can step in from day one as a starter.

85. Philadelphia Eagles: OLB Nate Irving, North Carolina St.-

The Eagles linebackers last season were one of their biggest weak spots and an area that needs to be upgraded. Irving is an intriguing prospect and one that I feel will develop into a start player. He is pretty good in coverage, and is a very sure tackler. While he isn’t perfect, I like what I’ve seen from his instincts as well.

86. Kansas City Chiefs: NT Kendrick Ellis, Hampton-

The Chiefs defense improved a lot last season, and it looks like former first rounders Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are going to finally start producing, but they need to add a man in the middle. Ellis has a lot of potential and could develop into a frontline NT.

87. Indianapolis Colts: G John Moffitt, Wisconsin-

The Colts offensive line was pretty bad last season. While it didn’t always amount to sacks, opponents put constant pressure on Manning. Moffitt can play anywhere on the interior and will also be a major addition in run blocking as well.

88. New Orleans Saints: DT Lawrence Guy, Arizona State-

Yes I know the Saints signed Shaun Rogers to fill their DT void, but you need to have depth at the position as even the best defensive tackles in the league play only between 75-80% of the snaps. Also Rogers was only signed for one season, so he could very well be gone leaving the Saints looking for another DT in a year. Guy is an underrated DT, but one that I think has a lot of promise going forward. He will be a good fit in a rotational role for the Saints this year, and hopefully develop into a fulltime starter next season.

89. San Diego Chargers (from Seattle): ILB Colin McCarthy, Miami-

The Chargers could use some youth added to their linebacking corps. While McCarthy is a bit of a reach here I love his upside for the interior of a 3-4. He probably won’t be a starter in year one, but should quickly work his way into that role by year two.

90. Baltimore Ravens: OT Chris Hairston, Clemson-

The Ravens have multiple offensive linemen who are free agents this offseason and I doubt they can resign them all. Hairston could help out at either RT or G, and replace anyone the Ravens might have lost.

91. Atlanta: RB Jordan Todman, Connecticut-

The Falcons need to add weapons and speed this offseason and Todman would be a nice value for them here. While Michael Turner is the top back in Atlanta, their speed back, J. Norwood, is a free agent and always injured, so the Falcons need a replacement. Todman should be able to contribute immediately and could even be the long term starter, if Turner starts to wear down in the next couple of years.

92. New England Patriots: SS Tyler Sash, Iowa-

The Patriots could need to find a new strong safety given Brandon Merriweather’s legal problems. Even if he isn’t suspended or worse due to his involvement with a shooting, Merriweather was the weakest link for the Patriots secondary last season, so competition isn’t the worst thing in the world. I love Sash’s upside and think he can start at either safety position.

93. Chicago Bears: RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State-

There are a lot of rumors that the Bears could be looking to part with Chester Taylor this offseason and if that is the case they will need a replacement. Taylor didn’t really help out as much as the Bears thought he would, and they could use a bigger back for short yardage situations. Despite being more of a ‘between the tackles’ back, Thomas has impressive speed, and could fit into the Bears system nicely.

94. New York Jets: WR Niles Paul, Nebraska-

The Jets are likely to lose one of their top receivers this offseason to free agency, and he will need to be replaced. While they could choose a bigger target if Edwards leaves, I really like Paul and think he can flourish in that offense. Paul has great secondary skills, and should contribute early.

95. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Kendrick Bruney, North Carolina-

The Steelers have two weaknesses, their offensive line and their corner backs. I know Bruney fell in some people’s eyes with a slow Combine time, but I like his upside. He is very instinctive and should be at least a nickel corner as a rookie.

96. Green Bay Packers: RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State-

Some might question this pick, but Hunter is excellent value here, and is a great change of pace back to James Starks. Ryan Grant will be a free agent next season and it is doubtful the Packers will invest serious money into him. Hunter could be the 3rd back this year and develop into a bigger role in year two.

Round 1 picks 1-16
Round 1 picks 17-32
Round 2
Round 4

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MOCK DRAFT: Round 1: 17-32: Round 2: Round 3: Round 4

17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Although I would typically look for them to fill one of their defensive needs, I’d be a little shocked if they let Jon Baldwin get past them. Baldwin has big time speed and play making ability, and he could be the perfect replacement for Randy Moss.While I know there are some concerns about his attitude, overall I think Baldwin will be an exceptional addition and offer great value to the Pats.

New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.

Feb. 25th update: Watt almost looks like he was born to be a Patriot, and while there are some other interesting options I still see this as they way they go.

Mar. 2nd: Watt blew up the combine, but unfortunately for him so did a number of other players. Watt is basically a borderline top 10 talent, so getting him at 17 is fantastic value.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DE J.J. Watt

18. San Diego Chargers: DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin-

With the Patriots passing on J.J. Watt, San Diego lands a player worth of a top 10 pick in the 2nd half of round 1. The Chargers could consider an offensive lineman or receiver here, but defensive end is their biggest need and Watt should fill it exceptionally well.

pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt

pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones

Feb. 25th update: I’d still be pretty shocked to see Jordan fall this far, but it is possible. If he does the Chargers almost have to take him.

pick change:Feb. 24th previous selection DE Cam Jordan.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Mar. 20th update: Watt is a great fit for San Diego and a steal if they can land him this late.

19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-

Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.

Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.

Feb. 17th update: I know some people are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.

Feb. 25th update: Ayers to the Giants is one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft, and barring them landing a top LB in free agency I can’t see how they look elsewhere.

Mar. 2nd update: I wasn’t thrilled with Ayers at the Combine, and considered moving him down, but I think what is more likely is he is now the late teens-early 20′s player, that I’ve been slotting him as. He still is a great fit for the G-Men, and should be near the top of their draft board.

Mar. 6th update: I’m still enough of a believer in Ayers to keep him at this spot, but I think his hold of it is tenuous at best.

Mar. 2oth update: I’ve been a little concerned about Ayers straight line speed, but I think that matters a bit less in a 4-3 than a 3-4. I still think Ayers is a solid pick here, and a fit for the Giants.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-

I’ve been mocking them an offensive tackle for some time, but I really think Tampa could be happy with Ryan Kerrigan. He has fallen some in my book and this is a bit high for him, but he can get after the quarterback. Sacks didn’t come easy for the Buccaneers last season, and that has to change for them to take their game to the next level and become a playoff team. I worry about Kerrigan in the ground game, but I do still like him as a pass rusher.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi

Mar. 2nd update: Kerrigan blew up at the Combine, and really showed great athleticism. He even answered some questions about standing up as an OLB. I think Kerrigan is a great fit for Tampa and should be a fantastic pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 6th update: I think Tampa would be thrilled with Kerrigan, and it will take something pretty spectacular to make them look in a different direction.

Mar. 20th update: Kerrigan is a great fit for their system, and he should greatly increase the amount of pressure the Bucs get on the opposing quarterbacks next season.

21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-

The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.

Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.

Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.

Feb. 24th update: 3-4′s succeed because of their line (which is improving) and their pass rush, adding Houston ensures the latter of those two is going to be very good.

Mar. 2nd update: Houston I thought put together a very nice Combine, and showed well in both the athletic and positional drills. Houston is firming up a spot in the top 20-25 rankings and is a good fit in K.C.

Mar. 6th update: This is a slight reach for the Chiefs, but I still don’t see why they wouldn’t want a bookend to Hali.

Mar. 20th update: I like Houston probably a bit more than most people and don’t see this a a true reach. I also think Houston is a great fit for the 3-4 and that he will excel there.

22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-

I finally gave in and now have the Colts taking an offensive tackle. They could take one in free agency, but they might not want to pay the high price tag with having to resign Peyton this offseason. Look for the Colts to add a good defensive player or two in free agency to allow them to take an OT. Castonzo I thought preformed well at the Scouting Combine, and looked to be the 2nd best tackle in the draft. I don’t think he is the perfect tackle, but he should be a day one starter and protect Peyton’s blindside for a number of years.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea

Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection DT Christian Ballard

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi

Mar. 6th update: While DT is still a real possibility, if they have a shot at Castonzo, I can’t see them passing it up. Protecting Manning and getting some help for the ground game is a top priority.

Mar. 20th update: Castonzo is exactly what the Colts need, and I think something special would have to occur for them to change this pick.

23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-

The Eagles have a pressing need at offensive tackle and I’m not buying their faith in Winston Justice, but I am starting to think they might look elsewhere in the draft. Corner back is almost as big of a need as offensive line, and Brandon Harris has great starting potential. Given the level of talent of the Cowboys and Giants receiving corps, the Eagles need to matchup if they want to stay competitive.

Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.

Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Derrek Sherrod

Mar. 2nd update: Jimmy Smith has some red flags, but the Eagles have been known to take chances on people. He has fantastic talent so they are getting an elite player, but there are some serious questions.

Mar. 6th update: Jimmy Smith on talent alone is a top 15 player, but his character concerns will likely get him to slip the Eagles.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection Jimmy Smith

24. New Orleans Saints: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-

I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. But, with him off the board and the Saints filling their DT need with Shaun Rogers, I could see them looking to upgrade their offensive line. Yes they already have two of the best guards in the league, but Carl Nicks is a restricted free agent, and I’m not sure if they are willing to have both of their guards signed to massive contracts. If they land Pouncey, they could look to trade Nicks, before he is an unrestricted free agent next season. Even if they keep Nicks, they could always start Pouncey at center where, there current starter, Jonathan Goodwin is also currently a free agent.

Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.

pick change: Feb 18th previous selection RB Mark Ingram

Feb. 24th update: There are a couple ways the Saints could go, but adding a DT, could really bring this defense together. I know it is a number of years straight taking a defensive player first, but without another first round quality running back, I can’t see that trend changing.

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DT Drake Nevis

Mar. 6th update: Pouncey is somewhat of a luxury pick, but it allows them to have multiple options. It is never a bad strategy to strengthen their offensive line, so I see this a real possibility.

Mar. 20th update: I know some Saints fans aren’t happy with the Pouncey pick, but it is great value and really secures the long term future for the Saints offensive line.

25. Seattle Seahawks: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois-

The Seahawks have a number of needs so I think they will go with the best player available strategy, and at this point no player has more value than Liuget. Liuget has the makings of a star defensive tackle. While he could potentially play outside in a 3 man front, his best position is DT. Seattle could be looking at losing their best D-lineman in DT Brandon Mebane, so Liuget could possibly be his replacement. Even if they keep Mebane, pairing him with Liuget would be a nightmare for opposing offenses.

pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan

Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.

Feb. 24th update: I still like Williams with this pick, but with so many needs, it is very possible they go in a different direction.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Aaron Williams

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection QB Jake Locker

Mar. 20th update: This is a great value pick for the Seahawks, and they add a great young talent in the middle of their defensive line.

26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Aaron Williams, Miami-

The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Williams is a bigger more physical corner, but he can still cover quicker guys. He probably won’t develop into an elite corner, but he should be a good starter.

Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.

Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.

Feb. 24th update: Corner back has to be number one on the Ravens wish list, and Harris is good value at this spot.

Mar. 2nd update: I think Harris is quickly becoming the 3rd best corner in this draft class. He looks to be a playmaker at the next level and shouldn’t disappoint Ravens fans.

Mar. 6th update: Harris has a lot of upside and while he might not be elite he has the potential to be pretty close to it.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection, CB Brandon Harris

27. Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame-

Although the Falcons need to upgrade their pass rush, there aren’t any good 4-3 ends available at this pick. They could grab a guy like Heyward or Ballard and kick him inside on passing downs, but I’m guessing they go in a different direction. They could target an offensive lineman if they lose one of their starters in free agency, but for now I like Kyle Rudolph with this pick. No it isn’t the wide receiver they are hoping for, but Rudolph, should still be a good weapon in year one, despite being Tony Gonzalez’s understudy. Surround Matt Ryan with as many weapons as possible is key for Atlanta, and Rudolph definitely qualifies.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Julio Jones

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DE Christian Ballard

Mar. 6th update: This is a little high for Rudolph, but he is the perfect fit for the Falcons, and with no DE’s available here that are worth the pick, adding a weapon for Ryan is key.

Mar. 20th update: Rudolph might be coming off an injury, but I really believe he will develop into a weapon at the next level.

28. New England Patriots: OT Derek Sherrod, Miss. St.-

While I like the idea of the Patriots grabbing a playmaker, I’m thinking they will take the more practical approach at take an offensive lineman. Sherrod is 4th on my OT board, but I see him as a guy the Patriots will like. He can play on either side and is more of a pass blocker than a run blocker. The Pats need him, because with Matt Light on the way out, and New England’s once elite offensive line is showing some holes. The Jets exploited some of those weaknesses in the Playoffs, as they were even able to get pressure with 3 and 4 men rushing. Unless the Patriots add a top tackle in free agency, they will have to address it early in the draft.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Torrey Smith

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 6th update: Unless they add a FA tackle the Pats need to add a starting caliber guy, and Sherrod is the top guy on the board.

Mar. 20th update: Could the Pats draft two offensive players in the first round? Sure, will they could be another matter. As it stands now Sherrod would be an excellent value pick here and fill a pretty good need.

29. New York Jets: DE Muhammad Wilkerson Temple-

The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Wilkerson. I’ve previously had Cameron Heyward here, but his injury could knock him down a peg. Wilkerson is a little raw, but he flashes big time upside, and looks to be effective both against the rush and the pass. He should ensure that the Jets don’t miss Ellis too much, and will help keep this defense among the league’s elite.

Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.

Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.

Feb. 24th update: A lot will depend on what they lose in free agency, but until then Heyward is the smart pick.

Mar. 2nd update: Heyward is still the tentative pick, but I do believe there are a number of directions the Jets could go.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Cameron Heyward

Mar. 20th update: I like Wilkerson for the Jets and I think he is going to be the type of guy who starts early in his career.

30. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder, Colorado -

Nate Solder is a boom or bust tackle, and I consider him the 5th best OT in the draft. I do think he will go higher than others and remain a first round pick because of that unlimited upside. I liked what I saw from Solder in the offensive lineman drills at the Combine, but his lack of upper body strength does worry me. He’s a good fit for Chicago, given his quickness, but he needs to maintain leverage if he is going to be a star.

pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love

Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Nate Solder

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Derek Sherrod

Mar. 6th update: The Bears need to come out of this draft with an offensive tackle, otherwise I really doubt they’ll be able to come anywhere close to replicating their success from last year.

Mar. 20th update: With Solder’s good Pro Day I think he is now locked into the 1st round.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-

I’ve had Pouncey going to the Steelers for quite some time, but I could see him off the board by this pick. If that is the case Pittsburgh should waste no time turning in their card for Carimi, who is a perfect fit for them. Last season both of their starting tackles missed a significant amount of time due to injury, so it is a major need for Pittsburgh. Carimi could have been born to play in Pittsburgh as he is a pure road grinder, with a blue collar attitude. He will be devastating in run blocking and more than hold his own in pass blocking. He’s probably a better fit on the right side, but since both tackles need upgraded he fits in Pittsburgh.

Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.

Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.

Feb. 24 update: I still think Pouncey and Pouncey is a dream scenario for the Steelers offensive line. Now if Willie Colon or Ike Taylor leave it could change their strategy.

pick change: previous selection OG Mike Pouncey

Mar. 6th update: I love the Carimi to the Steelers idea. I think he is just the blue collar, power running guy that they are looking for.

Mar. 20th update: Carimi will likely get passed up as a RT only in most systems, but in Pittsburgh’s power scheme he could play on the blind side.

32. Green Bay Packers: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-

This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. A good young receiver like Torrey Smith, does make some sense for the Packers. Their window is now, and adding weapons for Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority. Smith has the speed and quickness to help stretch the field, and be a home run threat.

Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Titus Young

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a pretty good Combine overall and should make a strong case for being the Packers pick. They could look at another area, but I think the idea of adding a top weapon will prevail.

Mar. 6th update: This is a pick that could go in any number of directions, but the Packers are pretty definite to lose James Jones this season, so they could look long and hard at WR.

Mar. 20th update: I’ll be pretty shocked if the Packers would leave Smith still on the board. He is a good value here and a big weapon upgrade than some of the Packers current receivers.

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65. Carolina Panthers: OG Clint Boling, Georgia-

The Panthers could go a number of different routes, but if they want to give Jimmy Clausen a legitimate chance they need to improve the line in front of him. They are set at center and tackle, but their guard play was pretty poor last season. Boling would be a nice value pick here, and help improve both their run and pass blocking. I think it is key that the Panthers grab an instant starter with this pick, and I feel that Boling fits that bill.

66. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Marvin Austin, North Carolina-

The Bengals need some help in the middle of their defensive line, and Austin is a great value for this spot. He has the talent to develop into a star if he can just stay focused. Even if he doesn’t reach his full potential he would be a good pick for them here.

67. Denver Broncos: FS Quinton Carter, Oklahoma-

I know this is a lot of defensive picks for the Broncos, but that was their biggest issue last season. For the most part their offensive line looks good, and they have decent receivers and quarterbacks. While I am not 100% sold on Moreno, he was a first rounder two years ago so he deserves at least one more shot. Free safety was a huge hole for this team last year, and Carter should fill it quite well. With a rebuild D-line and an improving secondary, Denver’s defense (and subsequently the entire team) could make a quick turnaround.

68. Buffalo Bills: OT Marcus Gilbert, Florida-

If the Bills don’t address their offensive line issues in the top 3 rounds this year, they should just fire their G.M. on the spot. Buffalo has some decent weapons at RB and WR, but until they get some protection their offense will always be second rate.

69. Arizona Cardinals: CB Curtis Brown, Texas-

The Cardinals could use another good young corner, as at times their DB play was extremely suspect. Brown showed really well at the Scouting Combine, and should have a very bright future in this league.

70. Cleveland Browns: DE Pernell McPhee, Miss. State-

The Browns need to add some 4-3 linemen, and McPhee profiles well as a strong left end. He offers decent pass rush and should be a very good run defender as well.

71. Dallas Cowboys: OT Chris Hairston, Clemson-

Dallas needs to upgrade their offensive line if they want to keep Tony Romo healthy. Hairston is a bit of a reach here, but still a solid value for the Cowboys. He might even be able to start year one on the right side and shore up that position for Dallas.

72. New Orleans Saints (from Washington): RB Shane Vereen, California-

Reggie Bush is likely done in New Orleans, and while Thomas was resigned he has been nicked up a bit and Chris Ivory is coming off a big injury, meaning RB is still high on the Saints wish list. Vereen would be a nice change of pace back and fill the role that Bush once held.

73. Houston Texans: OLB Dontay Moch, Nevada-

The Texans need to load up on 3-4 defenders and Moch has excellent potential as a pass rusher.

74. New England Patriots (from Minnesota): FB Owen Marecic, Stanford-

I know what you are saying, the Patriots don’t utilize their fullbacks, why would they ever draft one in the top 3 rounds. Well up until last year the Patriots only marginally used their TE’s as receivers, and had never made them the focal point of their offense. I could see the Patriots once again tweak with their style with an addition like Marecic. Not only could he help out in blocking and short yardage rushing, but he’s a deceptively good receiver out of the backfield. And don’t forget he played both ways in college, and will be a star on special teams as well.

75. Detroit Lions: OLB Mason Foster, Washington-

The Lions need linebacker help desperately so doubling up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds makes a lot of sense. The Lions could go from having one of the worst linebacker corps, to one of the most promising. I’m a big Mason Foster fan, and think he is a very good starter at the next level.

76. San Francisco 49ers: CB Johnny Patrick, Louisville-

The 49ers need some help in their secondary, and should really be looking to use one of their top 3 picks to fill that need. Patrick is a good fit and value here.

77. Tennessee Titans: G Will Rackley, Leigh-

The Titans need to look to upgrade the interior of their offensive line. They likely won’t have a major passing attack next year, so anything the Titans can do to free up Chris Johnson, they have to make a priority.

78. St. Louis Rams: DT Jurrell Casey, USC-

The Rams took care of their offensive needs with their first two picks, but they need to make sure they don’t ignore their defensive ones. Although they need a FS, I think they go DT here. Right now they have nothing next to Fred Robbins in the middle, and he is in his early 30′s. I’m not a huge fan of Casey’s but this is where his stock is, and I see him as a good fit in St.Louis, since they already have a good d-line.

79. Miami Dolphins: QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada-

The Dolphins haven’t had much success with drafting mid-round quarterbacks lately, but Kaepernick could change all of that. He has incredible potential and I really believe he will develop into a starting quarterback in this league within two years.
80. Jacksonville Jaguars: S DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson-

The Jags need major upgrades to their secondary, and adding a playmaker like McDaniel would be exactly the type of move they need to make. McDaniel could probably step in from day one and be their starting strong safety.

81. Oakland Raiders: OT Joesph Barksdale, LSU-

The Raiders biggest weakness is the play of their offensive line, so multiple upgrades are needed. Barksdale has a lot of potential, he could end up being their starting right tackle, and has the ability to play there for the next 10 years.

82. San Diego Chargers: WR Jerrel Jernigan, Troy State-

Last year the Chargers dealt with a number of receiver issues, and while for the most part it didn’t affect their overall play, I’m guessing they don’t want to be unprepared again. I know they typically favor bigger receivers, but Jernigan is great value for them at this pick and should have a lot of freedom underneath (think Wes Welker), with Jackson stretching the field deep.

83. New York Giants: CB Curtis Marsh, Utah State-

The Giants secondary has long been an issue for Big Blue, and should be addressed in the early rounds of the draft. Marsh comes from a small school, but he has a lot of promise. I think he can be at least a nickel corner next year for the Giants and has the potential to be a good starter.

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: MLB Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina-

The Buccaneers defensive front 7 needs quite a bit of work, but after this draft, they could be in pretty good shape. Sturdivant is a player that not many people are talking about, but that I feel can step in from day one as a starter.

85. Philadelphia Eagles: OLB Nate Irving, North Carolina St.-

The Eagles linebackers last season were one of their biggest weak spots and an area that needs to be upgraded. Irving is an intriguing prospect and one that I feel will develop into a start player. He is pretty good in coverage, and is a very sure tackler. While he isn’t perfect, I like what I’ve seen from his instincts as well.

86. Kansas City Chiefs: NT Kendrick Ellis, Hampton-

The Chiefs defense improved a lot last season, and it looks like former first rounders Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are going to finally start producing, but they need to add a man in the middle. Ellis has a lot of potential and could develop into a frontline NT.
87. Indianapolis Colts: G John Moffitt, Wisconsin-

The Colts offensive line was pretty bad last season. While it didn’t always amount to sacks, opponents put constant pressure on Manning. Moffitt can play anywhere on the interior and will also be a major addition in run blocking as well.

88. New Orleans Saints: DT Jarvis Jenkins, Clemson-

Yes I know the Saints signed Shaun Rogers to fill their DT void, but you need to have depth at the position as even the best defensive tackles in the league play only between 75-80% of the snaps. Also Rogers was only signed for one season, so he could very well be gone leaving the Saints looking for another DT in a year. Jenkins does a great job getting into the backfield and disrupting the play and should really help improve the Saints defense.

89. San Diego Chargers (from Seattle): S Marcus Gilchrist, Clemson-

The Chargers could be having to replace FS Eric Weddle this offseason, since I fully expect him to leave via free agency. They signed Bob Sanders, but it is only for one season and he has a long injury history. Gilchrist has the makings of being a very good free safety, and could be the starter by year 2.

90. Baltimore Ravens: OT James Brewer, Indiana-

The Ravens have multiple offensive linemen who are free agents this offseason and I doubt they can resign them all. Brewer isn’t a good fit at LT, but he should fit in at RT or either of the guard spots. Brewer might be a slight reach here, but I like his upside and potential.

91. Atlanta: RB Jordan Todman, Connecticut-

The Falcons need to add weapons and speed this offseason and Todman would be a nice value for them here. While Michael Turner is the top back in Atlanta, their speed back, J. Norwood, is a free agent and always injured, so the Falcons need a replacement. Todman should be able to contribute immediately and could even be the long term starter, if Turner starts to wear down in the next couple of years.

92. New England Patriots: DE Lawrence Guy, Arizona State-

The Patriots will just keep stockpiling talent and filling needs with their banner draft. Guy looks to be a good fit for a 3-4 end. He’s strong at the point of attack, and has some decent pass rush moves. I love his upside and think he could be a starter within a year.

93. Chicago Bears: RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State-

There are a lot of rumors that the Bears could be looking to part with Chester Taylor this offseason and if that is the case they will need a replacement. Taylor didn’t really help out as much as the Bears thought he would, and they could use a bigger back for short yardage situations. Despite being more of a ‘between the tackles’ back, Thomas has impressive speed, and could fit into the Bears system nicely.

94. New York Jets: WR Niles Paul, Nebraska-

The Jets are likely to lose one of their top receivers this offseason to free agency, and he will need to be replaced. While they could choose a bigger target if Edwards leaves, I really like Paul and think he can flourish in that offense. Paul has great secondary skills, and should contribute early.

95. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Kendrick Bruney, North Carolina-

The Steelers have two weaknesses, their offensive line and their corner backs. I know Bruney fell in some people’s eyes with a slow Combine time, but I like his upside. He is very instinctive and should be at least a nickel corner as a rookie.

96. Green Bay Packers: RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State-

Some might question this pick, but Hunter is excellent value here, and is a great change of pace back to James Starks. Ryan Grant will be a free agent next season and it is doubtful the Packers will invest serious money into him. Hunter could be the 3rd back this year and develop into a bigger role in year two.

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17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): DE J.J Watt, Wisconsin-

The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Given their propensity to focus on defense I think that is where they will look. While they could go for one of the top rush guys on the board, I think they will target J.J. Watt here. He improves their pass rush from his end position and will help free up their linebackers. I’m sure the Patriots will want one of the top rush linebackers, but I don’t see them reaching for a guy like Houston or Ayers here, not with Watt still on the board.

New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.

Feb. 25th update: Watt almost looks like he was born to be a Patriot, and while there are some other interesting options I still see this as they way they go.

Mar. 2nd: Watt blew up the combine, but unfortunately for him so did a number of other players. Watt is basically a borderline top 10 talent, so getting him at 17 is fantastic value.

18. San Diego Chargers: OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

The Chargers have franchised Vincent Jackson so at least one of their receivers are coming back. While they could still look at Julio Jones here, I think the Chargers take the best player on the board. They need a defensive end, but I don’t think there is anyone here who is top 20 worthy, so consider them a prime target to trade up. If they stay where they are Robert Quinn, would make a good selection. Rush linebacker isn’t a major need, but Larry English has just been average so far, and Antwan Applewhite is just a decent starter. Not to mention Shaun Phillips is getting up there in age, so San Diego could get some use out of Quinn. At the Combine I had some worries about Quinn standing up, but he is such a talent that it shouldn’t matter. Quinn has top 5 ability, but missing a season and an average Combine could push him down.

pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt

pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones

Feb. 25th update: I’d still be pretty shocked to see Jordan fall this far, but it is possible. If he does the Chargers almost have to take him.

pick change:Feb. 24th previous selection DE Cam Jordan.

19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-

Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.

Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.

Feb. 17th update: I know some people are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.

Feb. 25th update: Ayers to the Giants is one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft, and barring them landing a top LB in free agency I can’t see how they look elsewhere.

Mar. 2nd update: I wasn’t thrilled with Ayers at the Combine, and considered moving him down, but I think what is more likely is he is now the late teens-early 20′s player, that I’ve been slotting him as. He still is a great fit for the G-Men, and should be near the top of their draft board.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-

I’ve been mocking them an offensive tackle for some time, but I really think Tampa could be happy with Ryan Kerrigan. He has fallen some in my book and this is a bit high for him, but he can get after the quarterback. Sacks didn’t come easy for the Buccaneers last season, and that has to change for them to take their game to the next level and become a playoff team. I worry about Kerrigan in the ground game, but I do still like him as a pass rusher.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi

Mar. 2nd update: Kerrigan blew up at the Combine, and really showed great athleticism. He even answered some questions about standing up as an OLB. I think Kerrigan is a great fit for Tampa and should be a fantastic pass rusher at the next level.

21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-

The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.

Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.

Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.

Feb. 24th update: 3-4′s succeed because of their line (which is improving) and their pass rush, adding Houston ensures the latter of those two is going to be very good.

Mar. 2nd update: Houston I thought put together a very nice Combine, and showed well in both the athletic and positional drills. Houston is firming up a spot in the top 20-25 rankings and is a good fit in K.C.

22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-

I finally gave in and now have the Colts taking an offensive tackle. They could take one in free agency, but they might not want to pay the high price tag with having to resign Peyton this offseason. Look for the Colts to add a good defensive player or two in free agency to allow them to take an OT. Castonzo I thought preformed well at the Scouting Combine, and looked to be the 2nd best tackle in the draft. I don’t think he is the perfect tackle, but he should be a day one starter and protect Peyton’s blindside for a number of years.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea

Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection DT Christian Ballard

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi

23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado-

The Eagles have a pressing need at offensive tackle and I’m not buying their faith in Winston Justice, but I am starting to think they might look elsewhere in the draft. Corner back is almost as big of a need as offensive line, and Jimmy Smith is moving up draft boards. He is a big strong physical corner, that will have no problem matching up with the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Smith should really shore up that secondary and turn it into a strength. The Eagles will need to still find an offensive tackle, but they should have some options in free agency to do so.

Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.

Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Derrek Sherrod

Mar. 2nd update: Jimmy Smith has some red flags, but the Eagles have been known to take chances on people. He has fantastic talent so they are getting an elite player, but there are some serious questions.

24. New Orleans Saints: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-

I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. But, with him off the board and the Saints filling their DT need with Shaun Rogers, I could see them looking to upgrade their offensive line. Yes they already have two of the best guards in the league, but Carl Nicks is a restricted free agent, and I’m not sure if they are willing to have both of their guards signed to massive contracts. If they land Pouncey, they could look to trade Nicks, before he is an unrestricted free agent next season. Even if they keep Nicks, they could always start Pouncey at center where, there current starter, Jonathan Goodwin is also currently a free agent.

Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.

pick change: Feb 18th previous selection RB Mark Ingram

Feb. 24th update: There are a couple ways the Saints could go, but adding a DT, could really bring this defense together. I know it is a number of years straight taking a defensive player first, but without another first round quality running back, I can’t see that trend changing.

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DT Drake Nevis

25. Seattle Seahawks: QB Jake Locker, Washington-

Seattle could go in a number of different directions, but Jake Locker’s strong Combine, could propel him back into the first round. I still believe he is a developmental QB, but given his local ties and the need for a long term option, Seattle could pull the trigger on this one. Locker still needs to work on his accuracy and footwork, but he does have a lot of promise.

pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan

Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.

Feb. 24th update: I still like Williams with this pick, but with so many needs, it is very possible they go in a different direction.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection QB Jake Locker

26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-

The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Harris is a promising young corner, who has the skills to develop into a number one corner. Until then the Ravens will be quite happy with him being number two, and a big upgrade.

Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.

Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.

Feb. 24th update: Corner back has to be number one on the Ravens wish list, and Harris is good value at this spot.

Mar. 2nd update: I think Harris is quickly becoming the 3rd best corner in this draft class. He looks to be a playmaker at the next level and shouldn’t disappoint Ravens fans.

27. Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame-

Although the Falcons need to upgrade their pass rush, there aren’t any good 4-3 ends available at this pick. They could grab a guy like Heyward or Ballard and kick him inside on passing downs, but I’m guessing they go in a different direction. They could target an offensive lineman if they lose one of their starters in free agency, but for now I like Kyle Rudolph with this pick. No it isn’t the wide receiver they are hoping for, but Rudolph, should still be a good weapon in year one, despite being Tony Gonzalez’s understudy. Surround Matt Ryan with as many weapons as possible is key for Atlanta, and Rudolph definitely qualifies.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Julio Jones

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DE Christian Ballard

28. New England Patriots: OT Derek Sherrod, Miss. St.-

While I like the idea of the Patriots grabbing a playmaker, I’m thinking they will take the more practical approach at take an offensive lineman. Sherrod is 4th on my OT board, but I see him as a guy the Patriots will like. He can play on either side and is more of a pass blocker than a run blocker. The Pats need him, because with Matt Light on the way out, and New England’s once elite offensive line is showing some holes. The Jets exploited some of those weaknesses in the Playoffs, as they were even able to get pressure with 3 and 4 men rushing. Unless the Patriots add a top tackle in free agency, they will have to address it early in the draft.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Torrey Smith

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

29. New York Jets: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State-

The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Heyward. While some question his motor, he seems to read the snap count very well for a college player and a solid assortment of moves. The Jets will be quite pleased with Heyward going forward and he should help keep their defense near the top.

Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.

Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.

Feb. 24th update: A lot will depend on what they lose in free agency, but until then Heyward is the smart pick.

Mar. 2nd update: Heyward is still the tentative pick, but I do believe there are a number of directions the Jets could go.

30. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder, Colorado -

Nate Solder is a boom or bust tackle, and I consider him the 5th best OT in the draft. I do think he will go higher than others and remain a first round pick because of that unlimited upside. I liked what I saw from Solder in the offensive lineman drills at the Combine, but his lack of upper body strength does worry me. He’s a good fit for Chicago, given his quickness, but he needs to maintain leverage if he is going to be a star.

pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love

Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Nate Solder

pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Derek Sherrod

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-

I’ve had Pouncey going to the Steelers for quite some time, but I could see him off the board by this pick. If that is the case Pittsburgh should waste no time turning in their card for Carimi, who is a perfect fit for them. Last season both of their starting tackles missed a significant amount of time due to injury, so it is a major need for Pittsburgh. Carimi could have been born to play in Pittsburgh as he is a pure road grinder, with a blue collar attitude. He will be devastating in run blocking and more than hold his own in pass blocking. He’s probably a better fit on the right side, but since both tackles need upgraded he fits in Pittsburgh.

Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.

Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.

Feb. 24 update: I still think Pouncey and Pouncey is a dream scenario for the Steelers offensive line. Now if Willie Colon or Ike Taylor leave it could change their strategy.

pick change: previous selection OG Mike Pouncey

32. Green Bay Packers: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-

This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. A good young receiver like Torrey Smith, does make some sense for the Packers. Their window is now, and adding weapons for Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority. Smith has the speed and quickness to help stretch the field, and be a home run threat.

Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Titus Young

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a pretty good Combine overall and should make a strong case for being the Packers pick. They could look at another area, but I think the idea of adding a top weapon will prevail.

Round 1 Picks 1-16
NFL Draft Blog

17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): DE J.J Watt, Wisconsin-

The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Given their propensity to focus on defense I think that is where they will look. While they could go for one of the top rush guys on the board, I think they will target J.J. Watt here. He improves their pass rush from his end position and will help free up their linebackers. I’m sure the Patriots will want one of the top rush linebackers, but I don’t see them reaching for a guy like Houston or Ayers here, not with Watt still on the board.

New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.

Feb. 25th update: Watt almost looks like he was born to be a Patriot, and while there are some other interesting options I still see this as they way they go.

18. San Diego Chargers: DE Cam Jordan, Cal-

The Chargers have franchised Vincent Jackson so at least one of their receivers are coming back. While they could still look at Julio Jones here, I think the Chargers take the best player on the board in Cam Jordan. Jordan is a great young defensive end that absolutely dominated during Senior Bowl week. Jordan fills a big need for the Chargers and makes their top defense even better. If they can’t land a receiver or retain Floyd in free agency this could change quickly.

pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt

pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones

Feb. 25th update: I’d still be pretty shocked to see Jordan fall this far, but it is possible. If he does the Chargers almost have to take him.

19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-

Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.

Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.

Feb. 17th update: I know some people are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.

Feb. 25th update: Ayers to the Giants is one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft, and barring them landing a top LB in free agency I can’t see how they look elsewhere.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-

I’ve been mocking them an offensive tackle for some time, but I really think Tampa could be happy with Ryan Kerrigan. He has fallen some in my book and this is a bit high for him, but he can get after the quarterback. Sacks didn’t come easy for the Buccaneers last season, and that has to change for them to take their game to the next level and become a playoff team. I worry about Kerrigan in the ground game, but I do still like him as a pass rusher.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi

21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-

The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.

Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.

Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.

Feb. 24th update: 3-4′s succeed because of their line (which is improving) and their pass rush, adding Houston ensures the latter of those two is going to be very good.

22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-

I finally gave in and now have the Colts taking an offensive tackle. They could take one in free agency, but they might not want to pay the high price tag with having to resign Peyton this offseason. Look for the Colts to add a good defensive player or two in free agency to allow them to take an OT. Carimi isn’t the perfect fit for the Colts as he is a better run blocker (which given their ground game isn’t a bad thing), but he will also be an upgrade in the pass blocking department as well. He’s a day one starter and that is what’s most important for the Colts, because their time to win is now.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea

Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection DT Christian Ballard

23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado-

The Eagles have a pressing need at offensive tackle and I’m not buying their faith in Winston Justice, but I am starting to think they might look elsewhere in the draft. Corner back is almost as big of a need as offensive line, and Jimmy Smith is moving up draft boards. He is a big strong physical corner, that will have no problem matching up with the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Smith should really shore up that secondary and turn it into a strength. The Eagles will need to still find an offensive tackle, but they should have some options in free agency to do so.

Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.

Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Derrek Sherrod

24. New Orleans Saints: DT Drake Nevis, LSU-

I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. With him off the board I think the Saints will look at shoring up their defensive line. Drake Nevis would be a good fit next to Sedrick Ellis and give New Orleans a strong front four. Nevis holds up well against the run and gets a very good pass rush. His addition would have, DC Gregg Williams salivating, and should help keep the Saints defense highly productive.

Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.

pick change: Feb 18th previous selection RB Mark Ingram

Feb. 24th update: There are a couple ways the Saints could go, but adding a DT, could really bring this defense together. I know it is a number of years straight taking a defensive player first, but without another first round quality running back, I can’t see that trend changing.

25. Seattle Seahawks: CB Aaron Williams, Texas-

The Seahawks has a number of needs despite being a playoff team, while I could see them addressing their pass rush or long term quarterback situation, I think they will look to add a top notch corner. I have Williams and Brandon Harris in basically a dead heat to be the 3rd CB off the board, but think Williams makes a bit more sense for the Seahawks. He is a little bit bigger and taller, which should matchup better against the top receivers in the NFC West.

pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan

Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.

Feb. 24th update: I still like Williams with this pick, but with so many needs, it is very possible they go in a different direction.

26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-

The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Harris is a promising young corner, who has the skills to develop into a number one corner. Until then the Ravens will be quite happy with him being number two, and a big upgrade.

Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.

Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.

Feb. 24th update: Corner back has to be number one on the Ravens wish list, and Harris is good value at this spot.

27. Atlanta Falcons: DT/DE Christian Ballard, Iowa-

This pick could change in a hurry if the Falcons lose one or more of their starting offensive linemen in free agency, but right now their top need is to upgrade their pass rush. Now I know Ballard doesn’t seem like a good fit, because he is traditionally a 4-3 DT, but despite having tackle size he has end speed. Ballard has a quick first step and is strong enough to bull rush his way to the quarterback. I see Ballard playing end on early downs and kicking inside to tackle, on passing situations. I know receiver is still a need for this team, but their primary focus needs to be their pass rush.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Julio Jones

28. New England Patriots: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-

While I like the idea of the Patriots grabbing a playmaker, I’m thinking they will take the more practical approach at take an offensive lineman. Castonzo is a local product, but that isn’t why he will end up a Patriot. The Pats need him, because with Matt Light on the way out, New England’s once elite offensive line is showing some holes. The Jets exploited some of those weaknesses in the Playoffs, as they were even able to get pressure with 3 and 4 men rushing. Unless the Patriots add a top tackle in free agency, they will have to address it early in the draft.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Torrey Smith

29. New York Jets: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State-

The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Heyward. While some question his motor, he seems to read the snap count very well for a college player and a solid assortment of moves. The Jets will be quite pleased with Heyward going forward and he should help keep their defense near the top.

Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.

Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.

Feb. 24th update: A lot will depend on what they lose in free agency, but until then Heyward is the smart pick.

30. Chicago Bears: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St. -

With no trades this pick could happen, but come draft day I’d be shocked if one of the top 4 tackles lasted to 30. That being said the Bears are in the market for a tackle and if needs be I’m sure they will be a team looking to trade up to ensure they get one. Sherrod is an interesting tackle prospect, I think he is very capable of playing either spot, and he has the upside to develop into a Pro Bowler. He’s not as much as a road grinder as some of the other tackles, but he should do okay in the run game. The real area he excels is pass blocking, something I’m sure Jay Cutler will appreciate.

pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love

Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection Nate Solder

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-

Sure it is a bit of a feel good story, but Mike Pouncey is deserving of hearing his name called in the first round. Now I don’t think he is as refined as his All-Pro brother Maurkice, but he has that potential. Mike fits better as a guard than a center, which is where the Steelers biggest need lies. He should step into their right guard spot and team up with his brother to form a great interior line. If Willie Colon can come back from injury the Steelers offensive line will go from a weakness to one of their strengths. Pouncey could get taken earlier, but I think it is a foregone conclusion that he won’t get past the Steelers first round pick.

Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.

Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.

Feb. 24 update: I still think Pouncey and Pouncey is a dream scenario for the Steelers offensive line. Now if Willie Colon or Ike Taylor leave it could change their strategy.

32. Green Bay Packers: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-

This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. A good young receiver like Torrey Smith, does make some sense for the Packers. Their window is now, and adding weapons for Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority. Smith has the speed and quickness to help stretch the field, and be a home run threat.

Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.

pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget

pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Titus Young

Round 1 Picks 1-16
NFL Draft Blog