2012 NFL Draft Grades – Denver Broncos:

Round 2, Pick 4 (36) (From Buccaneers)             Derek Wolfe                DT                    Cincinnati : Grade C+

Round 2, Pick 25 (57)                                      Brock Osweiler           QB                   Arizona State: Grade D

Round 3, Pick 4 (67) (From Browns)                   Ronnie Hillman           RB                    San Diego State: Grade C+     .

Round 4, Pick 6 (101) (From Jaguars                  Omar Bolden              CB                    Arizona State: Grade B

through Buccaneers)

Round 4, Pick 13 (108) (From Jets)                    Philip Blake                 C                      Baylor: Grade B

Round 5, Pick 2 (137) (From Rams)                    Malik Jackson              DT                    Tennessee: Grade B+

Round 6, Pick 18 (188) (From Jets)                    Danny Trevathan        OLB                 Kentucky: Grade C+

DENVER BRONCOS FINAL 7-ROUND MOCK DRAFT: 

1^st Round:

25. Denver Broncos- DT Dontari Poe, Memphis:

The Broncos still need help along both of their lines, with defensive tackle being a more primary need. The Broncos tackles played solid this year, but they could use that singular dominant presence in the middle. That is where Poe comes in. He flashes the potential to be an absolute force in the middle, and if he puts it all together figures to be both a top level pass rusher and run stopper.

2^nd Round:

57. Denver Broncos-G Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin

3^rd Round:

87. Denver Broncos- RB LaMichael James, Oregon

4^th Round:

108. Denver Broncos (via Jets)- CB Omar Bolden, Arizona State

120. Denver Broncos- FS Trenton Robinson, Michigan State

5^th Round:

137. Denver Broncos (via St. Louis)- OT Andrew Datko, FSU

160. Denver Broncos- WR Rishard Mathews, Nevada

6^th Round:

188. Denver Broncos (via Jets)- DE/DT Brett Roy, Nevada

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UPDATED JMarch 24, 2012

Denver Broncos Team Needs In Priority Order:

1. Offensive Tackle

2. Center

3. Defensive Tackle (x2)

4. Cornerback

5. Running back

6. Guard depth

7. Linebacker depth

8. Developmental QB

DENVER BRONCOS:

2. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M: Miller is one of the top three players from this draft class and he should make an instant impact on the Broncos defense. He’s not a perfect fit in the 4-3 but I think he is good enough to still make a major impact.

45. Rahim Moore, S, UCLA: I like this Moore pick as the Broncos safeties were pretty bad last season, and Moore has big play ability.

46. Orlando Franklin, OG, Miami: The Broncos could look to make Franklin a RT to replace Ryan Harris, but I’d probably keep him inside. Either way he is a nice value pick here and should help make this offense better.

67. Nate Irving, ILB, North Carolina State: The Broncos had basically zero talent at the linebacker position and Irving has starting potential. This was probably a bit of a reach pick, but still could have some nice value.

108. Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma: This is a bit of a surprise pick because Carter seems like a FS at the next level, which is exactly what Moore is. It’s great value at this spot, but unless one of them can play SS, this could be a waste.

129. Julius Thomas, TE, Portland State: The Broncos needed a lot of help for their TE position and found a potential solution in Thomas. He is a rising player and I think he will be a good value pick.

189. Mike Mohamed, ILB, California: I was never a big fan of Mohamed and it seemed like an odd pick since they had already drafted Irving. He could have value on special teams, but that is probably about it.

204. Virgil Green, TE, Nevada: I have no problem with the Broncos grabbing a 2nd TE here. I thought Green was a 4th or 5th round TE and the Broncos got him with a 7th round pick.

247. Jeremy Beal, DE, Oklahoma: Not a bad place for Beal, who at one point looked like a top 100 player. He might never be a starter, but I think he is a good pick at this point.

GRADE: B-

The Broncos addressed a number of their defensive woes, and got some great players in Von Miller and Rahim Moore. Franklin and Irving were nice pickups as well. I think the Broncos did well grabbing a pair of quality pass catching tight ends which should help Tim Tebow develop. My biggest question is why didn’t the Broncos address their biggest need at defensive tackle? Denver has zero in the way of DT talent and them not grabbing one in the top 3 rounds I think was a major mistake.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:

26. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh: I love this pick for the Chiefs. Kansas City needed another big target to go along with Dwayne Bowe. Baldwin I think is just as good as a receiver as Julio Jones, and they got him 20 picks later. In addition the Chiefs were able to move back and pick up a high 3rd rounder for their troubles.

55. Rodney Hudson, OC, Florida State: Another great pick for the Chiefs here. Hudson should be able to start right away at guard or center, and is an excellent value at the end of the 2nd round.

70. Justin Houston, DE, Georgia: Earlier in the draft process Houston was probably on the Chiefs shortlist for the first round, so getting him here 50 picks later is an absolute steal. Houston has big time potential as a pass rusher and I think he gives Kansas City a great value here.

86. Allen Bailey, DE, Miami: Another great value pick for the Chiefs. Bailey was a borderline 2nd round talent and getting him at the end of the 3rd is a steal. He should fit in as a 5 technique, and get a fair amount of snaps as a rookie.

118: Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado: The Chiefs grab a good CB here, who was undervalued because he played next to Jimmy Smith. This is a solid 4th round pick and he could be a nickel corner.

135. Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa: I love this pick for Kansas City, as I don’t see a huge difference between Stanzi and the 7 QB’s taken in the top 80 picks. Cassel hasn’t proven that he is the future of the Franchise, so Stanzi is a great pick here.

140. Gabe Miller, OLB, Oregon State: Miller is another good depth pick here. He has some rush LB potential, but will likely be a special teamer.

199. Jerrell Powe, DT, Mississippi: The Chiefs desperately needed a NT, and this is a great value for Powe and he should at least be a rotational player.

223. Shane Bannon, RB, Yale: Bannon has some upside and he could be a decent FB, power back going forward.

GRADE: A

This was a fantastic draft for the Chiefs, they completely revamped their defense and added a big play receiver and stud interior lineman. I think the Chiefs got three instant starters and another three rotational players, plus a developmental quarterback. Kansas City did everything they had to do with this draft and they should remain a contender in the West.

OAKLAND RAIDERS:

48.  Stefen Wisniewski, OC, Penn State: This might have been a slight reach, but Wisniewski makes too much sense here. I think he is an instant starter for the Raiders and will help improve one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

81. Demarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami: With the Raiders losing Asomugha this offseason, they had to get some help at the CB position.

92. Joe Barksdale, OT, LSU: I love this pick for the Raiders, Barksdale has a big time upside and could be a starting RT for the Raiders this season.

113. Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Ohio State: Another good addition to their defensive backfield. I think Chekwa has some big time upside and could be a starter.

125. Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington: Running back wasn’t a major need, but Jones has exceptional speed and he could be a nice value pick here.

148. Denarius Moore, WR, Tennessee: Although the Raiders have spent a ton of picks of late on receivers not too many of them have panned out, meaning this could be a solid pick.

181. Richard Gordon, TE, Miami: This was a bit of a surprise as Gordon was more of a blocking tight end and the Raiders needed another pass catching TE.

241. David Ausberry, WR, USC: This seems like a reach pick, but in the 7th round you never know.

GRADE: B-

Overall I didn’t like giving up a 2nd round pick to the Patriots but Oakland did grab Barksdale and Jones with those picks, and that isn’t too bad. I like the Raiders grabbing a pair of linemen and two corners as well. I thought Oakland filled some needs while taking their traditional RB and WR’s later.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS:

18. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois: While there are some questions about whether he is a true 5 technique, I love this pick for the Chargers. Liuget is a penetrator and should cause havoc for opposing O-lines.

50. Marcus Gilchrist, CB, Clemson: This is probably a slight reach, but Gilchrist is a nice value pick here. He can help both at CB and FS, and should give the Chargers a lot of value.

61. Jonas Mouton, OLB, Michigan: I don’t get this pick at all. Mouton was maybe a 5th round talent at best yet the Chargers are taking him in the 2nd round.

82. Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State: I do like this pick for the Chargers as I really think Brown is a great value pick here. He catches everything thrown his way and should be a nice slot option for Rivers.

89. Shareece Wright, CB, USC: This is a slight reach, but could have some value down the road for the Chargers.

183. Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut: I think this is one of the Chargers best picks of the draft. Todman should be a nice change of pace back for the Chargers and give them good value at this spot.

201. Steve  Schilling, OG, Michigan: Another good late round pick for the Chargers. Schilling has some starting potential and should strengthen their line.

234. Andrew Gachkar, OLB, Missouri: This is a decent late round pick as the Chargers did need to upgrade their LB’ing corps.

GRADE: C-

Despite the Chargers  having two 2nd and two 3rd round picks I thought they had one of the worst drafts this year. I really don’t understand not addressing the RT or rush linebacker positions (sorry I don’t think Mouton counts). San Diego had a chance to add a number of impact players, and instead they picked one good player, and a couple potential contributors.

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Draft Picks:

Rd 1, Pick 2 (2)
Rd 2, Pick 4 (36)
Rd 2, Pick 14 (46)
Rd 3, Pick 3 (67)
Rd 6, Pick 21 (186)
Rd 6, Pick 24 (189)
Rd 7, Pick 44 (247)

Needs:

1. Defensive Tackle: The Broncos are making the switch to a 4-3 defense, and don’t have much in the way of personnel to handle the switch. While The Broncos have needs all over their defense, defensive tackle is their biggest overall need. They have pretty much zero in the way of defensive tackles. Look for the Broncos to grab at least two tackles in this draft.

2. Defensive End: Elvis Dumervil should be a star at one DE position, but the Broncos don’t have anything across from him. Denver should look to add a defensive end early in this draft to help put pressure on the quarterback.

3. OLB: D.J. Williams will handle one outside linebacker position, but there isn’t anything on the other side of him. The Broncos need a strong side linebacker to complement Williams.

4. MLB: The Broncos don’t have any talent at the middle linebacking spot, and need to find a real longterm starter.

5. Corner back: Champ Bailey resigned and will handle one corner back spot, but across from him the Broncos need a longterm answer opposite Bailey.

6. Safety: The Broncos safeties are average at best so Denver could look to an upgrade in the middle rounds this year.

7. Running back: Knowshon Moreno hasn’t turned into the feature back the Broncos were hoping for. While the Broncos won’t write off Moreno just yet, they should look to add another back to their depth chart.

8. Quarterback: The Broncos might have drafted Tim Tebow last year, but their front office and coaching staff doesn’t have any allegiance to him like their old staff might have. He doesn’t seem to be the type of Quarterback John Elway would look for, so don’t be surprised if Denver adds a QB at some point during the draft.

9. Tight End: While John Fox hasn’t utilized tight ends too much in his history, he needs to find a better option than what is currently on their roster. Fox’s philosophy could change given the fact that John Elway knows first hand how valuable a premier pass catching tight end can be.

Summary:

The Broncos have a number of needs and 4 picks in the top 67, so they could be quite the mover and shaker in this draft. Don’t be shocked if Denver looks to move out of their top pick and stock pile additional selections in the mid-late rounds. Regardless of where they pick, the Broncos need to focus on rebuilding their defense with their early picks, and try to pick up offensive value late in the draft.

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MOCK DRAFT: Round 1: 17-32: Round 2: Round 3: Round 4

*Now Updated with the First Four Rounds!

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. While there are some people who will point to Cam Newton as the answer, he simply isn’t a franchise quarterback of the ilk of Peyton Manning.

While I considered Bowers for the top spot, and have had Fairley there before I think Dareus makes the most sense. While the Panthers could use star DE Charles Johnson, he also might no longer fit in their system. New HC Ron Rivera has talked about employing both the 4-3 and the 3-4. That would make Dareus the be perfect fit for the the Panthers as he as adept to playing both inside at tackle and outside as a 3-4 end. While it isn’t his primary position, Dareus could even play some NT as well. Wherever he is lining up, Dareus projects to be a force at the next level. He should be an excellent run defender and put more than ample pressure on the quarterback.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DT Nick Fairley

Mar. 20th update: Dareus still makes the most sense for the Panthers, though persistent rumors about quarterbacks worry me. Carolina has a lot of needs so this could go a number of directions, but for me Dareus is the top player in this draft and a HUGE need for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos need help along the defensive line, and while initially I thought either Fairley or Dareus, would be the pick here, I think Bowers is the best fit. Bowers is the rare combination of a DE, who has the size and bulk to hold up in the running game, and get effective pressure on the quarterback. The Broncos still need a DT (actually two of them), but would be better served with drafting one with one of their two 2nd round picks. Bowers and Dumervil would give Denver the book end pass rushers that every team is looking for.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 20th update: Fairley is working his way back up the draft boards and Denver could go for a stud young corner, but getting a bookend to Dumervil makes a lot of sense. It is a deeper DT draft than it is a DE draft so the Broncos would be wise to take the top end in this class.

3. Buffalo Bills: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

As the days go by Miller’s stock keeps rising and rising, to the point that I just can’t see the Bills passing on him. I know they could go QB here, or the top corner on their board, but Miller is an elite talent and fills a major need. He’s making it harder and harder for the Bills to pass him up, to the point that I just can’t see it happening.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 6th update: I think this is maybe a little high, but the Bills could use a CB upgrade and Peterson looks like a star.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

Mar. 6th update: If there is one top 5 team that would pick Newton it has to be the Bengals. They need to move on from Palmer and they don’t mind taking a risk on guys.

Mar. 20th update: This is one of those things that makes too much sense for it not to happen. The Bengals are the type of team that will overvalue Newton and be ‘wowed’ by his athletic ability.

5. Arizona Cardinals: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

In some ways I think the Cardinals are ‘Von Miller or bust’ with this top 5 pick. While Peterson, would be excellent value and strengthen the team, he doesn’t represent a major need. While QB is a major need, I don’t see the Cards as players for Newton, and Gabbert might be too rich at the 5th pick for them. Given the depth of quarterbacks the Cardinals should be able to find a good young prospect in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. While there are other talented pass rushers in Quinn and Smith I don’t see the Cards pulling the trigger here. Arizona also desperately needs offensive tackles, but this is a bit rich for Tyron Smith, though I gave it fairly strong consideration.

In my opinion if Miller is off the board, look for Arizona to move down, either for a team that wants Peterson, or Gabbert (with Fairley or Green intriguing guys to move up for as well). If they keep the pick Peterson is an option, but more for value than need.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

Mar. 6th update: Some will push for the Cards to add a QB, but I just don’t see that happening. Miller is an elite talent and barring an injury should be the Cards pick.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection OLB Von Miller

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

Mar. 6th update: I still like Green more than Jones and feel he is the perfect weapon for the Browns to help develop Colt McCoy.

Mar. 20th update: With Nick Fairley’s strong Pro Day, I’m considering him strongly for this spot, but the Browns should be able to fill their DT need in the 2nd round. I think Green is too good to pass up at this spot.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

Mar. 6th update: Gabbert is a good pick for the 49ers and can help begin the revival of that franchise. I think he will need a little time, but he should be a quick study under Harbaugh.

Mar. 20th update: I have very mixed feelings about grabbing Gabbert here, but I think Harbaugh wants a young signal caller and Gabbert is the best in this class.

8. Tennessee Titans: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

The Titans have been searching for an inside pass rusher for a couple years now, and now they finally have one in Nick Fairley. Fairley is a top 5 talent, but one that could slip since he isn’t as good of a fit in the 3-4. Fairley will be a big boost to the Titans pass rush, that could be hurting from the potential loss of Jason Babin. Tennessee needs a disruptor along their defensive line and that fits Fairley perfectly.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection: WR Julio Jones

Mar. 20th update: The Titans have other needs, but I can’t see Fairley sliding any further than this.

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick. Personally I think Amukamara is the best corner in this draft and will automatically revitalize their secondary.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

Mar. 6th update: When you have Hakeem Nicks, and DeSean Jackson in your division you need to find a way to matchup. Even Rex Grossman threw for 400 yards against this Cowboys secondary, so CB is definitely a need.

Mar. 20th update: Cowboys could be a prime team to trade up for Peterson, but I think they will be quite content with their ‘consolation’ prize in Amukamara

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

Mar. 6th update: I know I’m a lot higher on Smith than most, but I think 3 years from now when you look back at this draft he will end up being a top 10 player.

Mar. 20th update: I know in this scenario most people would peg Jones or Quinnf for this pick, but I think Smith has a real chance of being something special.

11. Houston Texans: OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. This pick should come down to either a rush linebacker or a 3-4 DE. I go back and forth about which position the Texans should address, but if they feel like Quinn can stand up, then he has to be their pick. The Texans have at least average defensive ends, but they don’t have much in the way of pass rush specialists. I know they plan is to use Mario Williams in a hybrid formation, and that could work, but they need someone who is more natural at the position. I still have some doubts about Quinn, but he does have the upside to be an elite pass rusher, and that is exactly what the Texans need.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Mar. 6th update: Cam Jordan is a great fit for the Texans and upgrading that line with 3-4 players is key. A pass rusher is possible, but Jordan is too good to pass up

pick change: Mar. 16th previous selection, DE Cam Jordan

12. Minnesota Vikings: OLB Cameron Jordan, California-

While Cameron Jordan isn’t a prototypical 4-3 defensive end, he is still quick enough to rush effectively from that position. Jordan’s ability to play inside, fits well with the Vikings since he can move inside to replace Pat Williams on passing downs. Adding Jordan to the front line, will go a long way to helping the Vikings defense return to elite status.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change:Mar. 6th previous selection DE Robert Quinn

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

Mar. 6th update: Smith is still the top tackle on the board and his presence will allow Backus (a better run blocker) kick over to the RT spot, strengthening their line in two areas.

Mar. 20th update:All of the Lions other needs can be addressed in the 2nd-4th rounds, one thing they won’t be able to fix in those rounds is adding a stud LT. That is why Smith has to be the pick here, and any other pick will not do enough

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now I’m not conceding my personal rankings in terms of who should go first between Julio Jones and Jon Baldwin, but I think it is time to concede the fact that Jones will go first. I think teams will fall in love with his incredible combine numbers, and slightly overdraft Jones. It’s not that I am anit-Jones, its just that I worry about how refined he is. That being said, he will be a major upgrade for the Rams and they will be thrilled to land him with this pick. If they feel he could get drafted earlier, don’t be surprised if St. Louis looks to move up a couple of spots to secure his services.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Mar. 6th update: I know some fans don’t like Baldwin too much, but don’t buy the hype, this guy is a stud and just as deserving to go top 15 as Julio Jones. Yes they could go DE or DT here, but I’m a big believer in Baldwin and think he will be the best of the 3 receivers

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

Mar. 6th update: I want to see more out of Ingram to say he is top 15 worthy, but it is such a need for Miami I can’t pass it up.

Mar. 20th update: Ingram is still a fringe top 20 player for me, but Miami’s need is too great to ignore him at this point.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Mar. 6th update: Clayborn makes a lot of sense at this pick and while there are a couple of other respectable options I really think this is the way they go.

Mar. 20th update: I’m very close to switching this pick to Ryan Kerrigan, and I debated long and hard about the merits between the two defensive ends. In the end I just feel Clayborn is the great value and better all around DE, while Kerrigan is the better pure pash rusher.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
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1. Carolina Panthers: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. While there are some people who will point to Cam Newton as the answer, he simply isn’t a franchise quarterback of the ilk of Peyton Manning.

While I considered Bowers for the top spot, and have had Fairley there before I think Dareus makes the most sense. While the Panthers could use star DE Charles Johnson, he also might no longer fit in their system. New HC Ron Rivera has talked about employing both the 4-3 and the 3-4. That would make Dareus the be perfect fit for the the Panthers as he as adept to playing both inside at tackle and outside as a 3-4 end. While it isn’t his primary position, Dareus could even play some NT as well. Wherever he is lining up, Dareus projects to be a force at the next level. He should be an excellent run defender and put more than ample pressure on the quarterback.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DT Nick Fairley

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos need help along the defensive line, and while initially I thought either Fairley or Dareus, would be the pick here, I think Bowers is the best fit. Bowers is the rare combination of a DE, who has the size and bulk to hold up in the running game, and get effective pressure on the quarterback. The Broncos still need a DT (actually two of them), but would be better served with drafting one with one of their two 2nd round picks. Bowers and Dumervil would give Denver the book end pass rushers that every team is looking for.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DT Marcell Dareus

3. Buffalo Bills: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

The Bills could go any number of ways, but I’m guessing they focus on the defensive side of the ball, which is the strength of this draft. With Fairley and Dareus off the board I think they might target LSU CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a playmaker, and the Bills are sorely lacking that on defense. Corner back isn’t a major need, but the Bills face some good receivers and quarterbacks in their division and they might want to matchup. Von Miller makes a lot of sense here as well, but I’m guessing the hype from Peterson wins out.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 6th update: I think this is maybe a little high, but the Bills could use a CB upgrade and Peterson looks like a star.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

Mar. 6th update: If there is one top 5 team that would pick Newton it has to be the Bengals. They need to move on from Palmer and they don’t mind taking a risk on guys.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

Mar. 6th update: Some will push for the Cards to add a QB, but I just don’t see that happening. Miller is an elite talent and barring an injury should be the Cards pick.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

Mar. 6th update: I still like Green more than Jones and feel he is the perfect weapon for the Browns to help develop Colt McCoy.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

Mar. 6th update: Gabbert is a good pick for the 49ers and can help begin the revival of that franchise. I think he will need a little time, but he should be a quick study under Harbaugh.

8. Tennessee Titans: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

The Titans have been searching for an inside pass rusher for a couple years now, and now they finally have one in Nick Fairley. Fairley is a top 5 talent, but one that could slip since he isn’t as good of a fit in the 3-4. Fairley will be a big boost to the Titans pass rush, that could be hurting from the potential loss of Jason Babin. Tennessee needs a disruptor along their defensive line and that fits Fairley perfectly.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection: WR Julio Jones

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick. Personally I think Amukamara is the best corner in this draft and will automatically revitalize their secondary.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

Mar. 6th update: When you have Hakeem Nicks, and DeSean Jackson in your division you need to find a way to matchup. Even Rex Grossman threw for 400 yards against this Cowboys secondary, so CB is definitely a need.

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

Mar. 6th update: I know I’m a lot higher on Smith than most, but I think 3 years from now when you look back at this draft he will end up being a top 10 player.

11. Houston Texans: DE Cam Jordan, California-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. While they could go for a rush linebacker, I think Robert Quinn isn’t the best option. Quinn could be better suited as a 4-3 end. Although they could make due with Quinn, I believe there is a better player available in Cam Jordan at defensive end. Jordan, for a 3-4 end, should still generate a good bit of pressure, and be a disruptive force in the backfield. Houston needs to add the best 3-4 player they can, and right now that seems like Cam Jordan.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Mar. 6th update: Cam Jordan is a great fit for the Texans and upgrading that line with 3-4 players is key. A pass rusher is possible, but Jordan is too good to pass up.

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

While I do think that offensive line and defensive line (along with quarterback) are bigger needs I don’t think the Vikings will let Julio Jones slip by them. Sidney Rice is probably going to leave as a free agent, and the Vikings have little in the way of receiving depth behind, Percy Harvin. If Jones is here I think they will take him.

While I like Jones overall and think he is a top half of the first round talent. I do feel the hype factor is raising his stock. Despite playing on one of the best balanced teams in college football, Jones has a lot of bad games out there. Between the inconsistency and dropped balls I think he is more of a risk. That being said someone will take him top 15 and the Vikings could make a lot of sense.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Da’Quan Bowers

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

Mar. 6th update: Smith is still the top tackle on the board and his presence will allow Backus (a better run blocker) kick over to the RT spot, strengthening their line in two areas.

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Baldwin probably got passed up by Jones, but you really can’t blame Baldwin. He had a fantastic Combine in his own right and should be cemented into first round pick status. The Rams will be thrilled to land one of the top three receivers, though with the way their stock is rising, they might have to trade up to do so.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Mar. 6th update: I know some fans don’t like Baldwin too much, but don’t buy the hype, this guy is a stud and just as deserving to go top 15 as Julio Jones. Yes they could go DE or DT here, but I’m a big believer in Baldwin and think he will be the best of the 3 receivers.

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

Mar. 6th update: I want to see more out of Ingram to say he is top 15 worthy, but it is such a need for Miami I can’t pass it up.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Mar. 6th update: Clayborn makes a lot of sense at this pick and while there are a couple of other respectable options I really think this is the way they go.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
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1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time. Now with not franchising Johnson they could very well lose him, but Fairley is still a slightly better fit than Bowers for me.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

2. Denver Broncos: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos desperately need a defensive tackle, and after Dareus’ big combine performance, I think the Broncos will be willing to pull the trigger. They still have needs at CB and DE, but Dareus fills their biggest need and he looks to be an elite defensive tackle.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

3. Buffalo Bills: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

The Bills could go any number of ways, but I’m guessing they focus on the defensive side of the ball, which is the strength of this draft. With Fairley and Dareus off the board I think they might target LSU CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a playmaker, and the Bills are sorely lacking that on defense. Corner back isn’t a major need, but the Bills face some good receivers and quarterbacks in their division and they might want to matchup. Von Miller makes a lot of sense here as well, but I’m guessing the hype from Peterson wins out.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

8. Tennessee Titans: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

I think this is a little high for Jones, but would say there is a real chance he gets selected here. He has a fantastic combine and his stock is skyrocketing right now. While the Titans have Kenny Britt, he hasn’t been the model teammate so Tennessee could look at this as a value pick. Also, despite having Britt last year, the Titans passing game couldn’t get going. Tennessee could look to add some punch to their receiving corps. Personally I’m not a fan of overvaluing receivers, but it does happen and I could see it happening here.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

11. Houston Texans: DE Cam Jordan, California-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. While they could go for a rush linebacker, I think Robert Quinn isn’t the best option. Quinn could be better suited as a 4-3 end. Although they could make due with Quinn, I believe there is a better player available in Cam Jordan at defensive end. Jordan, for a 3-4 end, should still generate a good bit of pressure, and be a disruptive force in the backfield. Houston needs to add the best 3-4 player they can, and right now that seems like Cam Jordan.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

12. Minnesota Vikings: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

Although the Vikings have a number of needs on offense I see them looking defense with this pick. They are likely to lose Ray Edwards in free agency and could use a bookend pass rusher to Jared Allen. Bowers didn’t do a full workout at the combine, but he did show up at a good weight and size. While I think he is a top 5 talent, I don’t like the way he fits into 3-4 teams, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I think Minnesota is a great fit for him and he can be an impact player.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Baldwin probably got passed up by Jones, but you really can’t blame Baldwin. He had a fantastic Combine in his own right and should be cemented into first round pick status. The Rams will be thrilled to land one of the top three receivers, though with the way their stock is rising, they might have to trade up to do so.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
NFL Draft Blog

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time. Now with not franchising Johnson they could very well lose him, but Fairley is still a slightly better fit than Bowers for me.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. Although the Broncos covet, Fairley and could ideally go with the next best defensive tackle, I think they go with the best player available, in Bowers. Denver needs to revamp that entire defense, but in particular the defensive line. Elvis Dumervil will be at one end, but beyond that the Broncos have nothing for the other end spot. Bowers will be an instant fix, and should become a dominate force.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

3. Buffalo Bills: DE/DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

The Bills could go a number of different directions, but with the recent release of Marcus Stroud, the Bills need some help up front. I know they were impressed with Alex Carrington, but Dareus is at a different level. Putting him next to Kyle Williams should shut down the run. Dareus also projects to give a good amount of pressure from his end spot. I still think OLB Von Miller is high on their list, but to run a 3-4, you need to have linemen who can hold at the point of attack, and that is Dareus.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

7. San Francisco 49ers: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

While the 49ers could be tempted by a quarterback, I think corner back makes too much sense for them to pass up. Their secondary got pretty torched last season, and adding a play-maker like Amukamara should help fix that problem immediately.  The 49ers could win the NFC West next year with just a few changes so adding guys who can help right away, compared to a developmental QB makes sense. With a stud corner in the fold that defense should finally be as good as advertised. Quarterback is still and issue, and one that will likely be addressed in free agency (or via a trade) and a mid-round selection. I’m extremely close between which corner is better Peterson or Amukamara, but give the slight edge to Amukamara.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

8. Tennessee Titans: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

The Titans at this point could go in any direction, but it will be hard to gauge until they have a new coach in place. Despite the coaching change it looks as though Vince Young is on his way out. While that would have happened with Jeff Fisher at the helm, he was more likely to look for a more veteran fix (McNabb, Kolb, etc.), then go the rookie route. With a new staff in place it might be time to rebuild in Tennessee, making Gabbert a smart pick. While I don’t know if I’d label him a ‘franchise quarterback’, he does have the best combination of potential, talent, and likelihood of reaching it. Gabbert probably should start until at least mid-season, but he gives hope as a quarterback who can take pressure off Chris Johnson.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

I know the Cowboys need an offensive lineman, and I think Tyson Smith is perfect for them, but there is no way they’d pass up Peterson (or Amukamara) if available. Their secondary was flat out awful last season, and they need a playmaker to take over. When you play the Eagles and Giants receiving corps 4 times a year, you have to match-up. The Cowboys do have serious offensive line issues and will need to fix that in free agency/2nd round of the draft.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

11. Houston Texans: OLB/DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take should focus this pick on grabbing a rush linebacker. I’ll keep with the trend of my previous picks and give the Texans an elite pass rusher. I think Quinn absolutely dominated two years ago, and should help cause havoc in Wade Phillips new defense.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

While I think the Vikings will consider quarterback, there is no one at this pick worth taking. Other areas of need include both the offensive and defensive lines, but none is as pressing as wide receiver. Although the Vikings could still resign Sidney Rice, they are going to let him test the open market, and I’m guessing some other team overpays for him. The Vikings will desperately look for a receiver complement to Percy Harvin. I think Baldwin is an exceptional talent, one that has a case to be picked ahead of Green. People may scoff at this pick, and I’m not a huge fan of drafting receivers high, but it happens every year, and Baldwin is a weapon.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Jones is another big play, big time receiver and will quickly become Sam Bradford’s best friend.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
NFL Draft Blog

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Broncos could go in multiple defensive directions here, but I’m going to say they nab Amukamara here. The Broncos could opt for a defensive end (or a rush linebacker if they stay in the 3-4), but taking a corner here makes sense. Champ Bailey is an impending free agent, and if they can’t agree to terms with them their corner situation is dismal. Even if they do bring Bailey back, his time at the top of his game is near the end, so adding a young elite corner makes sense. Also, when you play Phillip Rivers twice a year, strengthening your defensive backs is a always a good idea.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

3. Buffalo Bills: DE/DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

The Bills could go a number of different directions, but with the recent release of Marcus Stroud, the Bills need some help up front. I know they were impressed with Alex Carrington, but Dareus is at a different level. Putting him next to Kyle Williams should shut down the run. Dareus also projects to give a good amount of pressure from his end spot. I still think OLB Von Miller is high on their list, but to run a 3-4, you need to have linemen who can hold at the point of attack, and that is Dareus.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

6. Cleveland Browns: DE De’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

Previously I had the Browns reaching for a wide receiver with this pick and taking Julio Jones, but recent events make me believe they will go in a different direction. With the hiring of Dick Jauron, it is now pretty official that the Browns are heading to a 4-3 alignment, and right now they don’t have the personnel to handle the move. In particular they need to find help at defensive end, making De’Quan Bowers a fantastic selection for them. Bowers is the top rated player on my board, but he doesn’t fit nearly as well into 3-4 teams, and teams like the Panthers and Bengals don’t have a pressing need for a DE, allowing him to fall. The Browns would be wise to end that fall, as he has the potential to be the next Mario Williams or Julius Peppers. Although the Browns still need to add a big play receiver, I think they will look more towards the 2nd round and/or free agency.

pick change: Jan. 25 previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

7. San Francisco 49ers: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

While the 49ers could be tempted by a quarterback, I think Peterson makes too much sense for them to pass up. Their secondary got pretty torched last season, and adding a play-maker like Peterson should help fix that problem immediately.  The 49ers could win the NFC West next year with just a few changes so adding guys who can help right away, compared to a developmental QB makes sense. With Peterson in the fold that defense should finally be as good as advertised. Quarterback is still and issue, and one that will likely be addressed in free agency (or via a trade) and a mid-round selection.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

8. Tennessee Titans: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

The Titans at this point could go in any direction, but it will be hard to gauge until they have a new coach in place. Despite the coaching change it looks as though Vince Young is on his way out. While that would have happened with Jeff Fisher at the helm, he was more likely to look for a more veteran fix (McNabb, Kolb, etc.), then go the rookie route. With a new staff in place it might be time to rebuild in Tennessee, making Gabbert a smart pick. While I don’t know if I’d label him a ‘franchise quarterback’, he does have the best combination of potential, talent, and likelihood of reaching it. Gabbert probably should start until at least mid-season, but he gives hope as a quarterback who can take pressure off Chris Johnson.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

9. Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I have gone back and forth with this pick, but think Smith is a good fit for Dallas. With reports that the Cowboys aren’t going to franchise Doug Free, there is a serious chance they lose him in free agency. Even if they do retain him, right tackle was a HUGE hole for the Cowboys last year and needs to be fixed for Dallas to contend. Corner back and defensive end also make sense, in addition to trading back (or even up for a corner). Until the Cowboys address their offensive line woes, it will be hard for me to not mock them a Tackle. I know some think Smith is too light, but I’m a big believer in him, and think he will show himself at the combine next week.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

11. Houston Texans: OLB/DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take should focus this pick on grabbing a rush linebacker. I’ll keep with the trend of my previous picks and give the Texans an elite pass rusher. I think Quinn absolutely dominated two years ago, and should help cause havoc in Wade Phillips new defense.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

I’ve thought the Vikings would go for Cam Newton all along, but the hype makes it seem like he will be long gone by the time they are on the clock. I know people will question this pick, considering the fact that Minnesota already has Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, but I could really see this happening. For one thing it is great value, and for another Minnesota’s quarterback, whomever it will be, will need all the help he can get. When the Vikings were without Sidney Rice last season, their passing game really struggled (not all on Rice). Rice is also a free agent, which could make this a big need, but even if he resigns it makes sense for the Vikings. Adding Green to the mix makes Minnesota that much more dangerous and still a playoff threat. They do need to still fix that offensive line, but Green could be the pick here.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pick selection Cam Newton

13. Detroit Lions: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College

With Tyron Smith off the board, the Lions will have to go with the next best available tackle. I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. Detroit might have needs at LB and CB and a few other positions, but they are secondary compared to their need at offensive tackle.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

Most draftniks will say this is too high for Baldwin, but I think they are underselling him a bit. Baldwin has all the skills to be a number one wide receiver in this league and his addition should make Sam Bradford very happy. The Rams could look at some defensive options, but I think they stay the course and add the top WR on the board. While right now you can make a case of Julio Jones over Baldwin, I don’t think it is nearly as strong as most scouts make it out to be. I believe that Baldwin will separate himself during his workouts, and end up being the 2nd receiver in this class.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.